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to the website of the European Central Bank: '+location.protocol + '//' + location.host + location.pathname+((document.location.search.search(/\?youtubeID=[a-zA-Z0-9_-]+$/)!=-1&&document.location.search)||''))" title="Share by Email"></a></li> </ul> </div> </aside> <main > <div class="title"> <h1>Valentina Aprigliano</h1> </div><div class="definition-list "><dl><dt isoDate="2024-10-02"><div class="date">2 October 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2986</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2986~94f19796b8.en.pdf?a8f8e3ccf2c8fd84d49345d74b9f4346" >How income expectations adjust to inflation – a consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/virginia-di-nino.en.html" >Virginia Di Nino</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/valentina-aprigliano.en.html" >Valentina Aprigliano</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2986~94f19796b8.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers’ responses to probabilistic questions, we obtain significantly higher estimates of the pass-through than those obtained from micro data. Our methodology allows one to examine how the pass-through varies along the probability distribution of expected inflation, which turns out to be particularly large for moderate inflation expectations. We find significant heterogeneity in the inflation pass-through across countries, ages and income groups, consistent with different wage and pension indexation regimes.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C10</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General<br/><strong>C22</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes<br/><strong>E31</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation<br/><strong>E66</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd></dl></div> </main> </div> <div id="feedback" class="hidden"> <div class="content-box"> <div class="initial"> <div class="title">Are you happy with this page?</div> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-yes">Yes</a> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-no">No</a> </div> <div class="second hidden"> <div class="title">What made you unhappy?</div> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-broken">Page not working</a> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-content">Information not useful</a> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-design">Design not attractive</a> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-other">Something else</a> </div> <div class="final hidden"> <div class="title">Thank you for letting us know!</div> </div> </div> </div> <footer id="ecb-doc-footer"> <div class="ecb-footerTop"> <div class="sitemap"> <a href="/home/sitedir/html/index.en.html" title="Site Directory">Site directory</a> </div> <div class="socialLinks"> <a class="inline-link" href="/home/socialmedia/html/index.en.html" title="Official social media channels">FOLLOW US</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/ecb" class="twitter" title="X"></a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/european-central-bank" class="linkedin" title="LinkedIn"></a> <a href="https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/" class="instagram" title="Instagram"></a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/ecbeuro" class="youtube" title="YouTube"></a> <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/europeancentralbank/sets/" class="flickr" title="Flickr"></a> <a href="https://soundcloud.com/europeancentralbank" class="soundcloud" title="Soundcloud"></a> <a href="/rss" class="rss" title="RSS news feeds"></a> </div> </div><div class="ecb-footerBottom"> <p><span>Copyright 2024, </span>European Central Bank</p> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigation"> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBox"> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBoxTitle">Useful links</div> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBoxLinks"> <ul> <li><a href="/careers/vacancies/html/index.en.html">Work with us</a></li> <li><a href="/services/glossary/html/index.en.html">Glossary</a></li> <li><a href="/services/links/html/index.en.html">Other institutions</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBox"> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBoxTitle">Using our site</div> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBoxLinks"> <ul> <li><a href="/services/disclaimer/html/index.en.html">Disclaimer & Copyright</a></li> <li><a href="/services/data-protection/privacy-statements/website/html/index.en.html">Privacy statement</a></li> <li><a href="/services/languagepolicy/html/index.en.html">Language policy</a></li> <li><a href="/services/using-our-site/technical-updates/html/index.en.html">Technical updates to this site</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBox"> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBoxTitle">Corporate Policies</div> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBoxLinks"> <ul> <li><a href="/services/data-protection/html/index.en.html">Data Protection</a></li> <li><a href="/ecb/access_to_documents/html/index.en.html">Access to documents</a></li> <li><a href="/services/responsible-disclosure/html/index.en.html">Responsible disclosure</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBox"> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBoxTitle">Contact</div> <div class="ecb-serviceNavigationBoxLinks"> <ul> <li><a href="/ecb/contacts/html/index.en.html">Contacts</a></li> <li><a href="/services/contacts/address/html/index.en.html">Address</a></li> <li><a href="/services/contacts/working-hours/html/index.en.html">Public holidays</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div>  </footer> <style> [data-count]{ position: relative; 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