Mysteel解读：郑棉弱势下行，仓单维持高位-我的钢铁网

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19:11</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="1881" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p>进入4月中旬后，国内棉花商业库存仍高于2023年同期，新疆棉区播种工作相继开展，2024年美国棉花种植面积预计增加4.3%，截止4月14日播种进度8%。下游纺织市场行情整体欠佳，部分工厂走货仍旧缓慢、继续压低开机率，订单稀缺，原料采购以刚需为主。</p> <p><strong>郑棉期货价格弱势下行</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/18/7dc76b53e3e544839cecdfe22cf943a9.png" alt="" width="600" height="338.97058823529414" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;">图1 2022-2024年郑棉主连价格走势图</p> <p>截至2024年4月18日，郑棉主连大幅下跌，周度下跌470元/吨，跌幅2.86%，收盘15935元/吨；当前国内商业库存维持高位，郑棉期货价格遭遇下挫，主要受累于商品市场投机抛售的不利影响，加之国内棉花供应保持充足，现货报价下调，下游棉纱产销一般，部分企业开机率和产销率有所下降，原料补库意愿不强，维持刚需采购。短期内预计郑棉期货将维持偏强震荡格局。</p> <p><strong>下游需求整体表现一般</strong></p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a><a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>数据监测，截至4月18日，主流地区纺企开机负荷为81.2%，环比降幅0.85%。市场交投偏淡，广东市场织厂开机下降，对棉纱采购需求减弱，整体市场来看，纺企开机率高位运行，但大部分工厂都是在养机台，稳定工人，纺纱利润不足。目前全国C32s环纺纺纱即期利润为-130.9元/吨，周环比增加309.1元/吨。近期广东大部分织厂开始收机台，订单接近尾声，26s以下棉纱走货相对紧俏，32s、40s棉纱表现一般，预计短期棉纱市场并无明显下调压力，但后续需警惕市场流动性减少带来的风险。预计棉纱价格将延续震荡整理走势。</p> <p><strong>郑棉仓单依旧高位</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/18/6e914db46fa04c1db17dc7bfa1841cb9.png" alt="" width="522" height="295" /></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;">图1 2022-2024年郑棉仓单数量走势图</p> <p><span style="text-indent: 2em;">据Mysteel农产品数据监测，</span>截至4月18日，郑棉注册仓单13798张，较上一交易日减少106张；有效预报3093张，较上一交易日增加240张，仓单及预报总量16891张，折合棉花67.56万吨。近期郑棉仓单有效预报量增长明显，套保盘占比不断上升，其原因首先是3月上旬以来ICE棉花期货大幅跳水，轧花厂及棉花贸易商担心“内强外弱”行情难以持续，抓紧预报避险。其次是1%关税下内外棉花价格顺挂幅度再次扩大至1000元/吨以上，加上棉纺织服装业“金三银四”成色明显不足，疆内外仓储库棉花现货询价遭遇阻力，成交陷入冷清，套保成为部分棉企的重要销售渠道。最后2023/24年度新疆皮棉销售进度较上年度偏缓慢，尤其大中型棉企，5月底面临的还贷压力上升，预报、注册仓单使轧花厂在套保中自由切换。</p> <p><strong>综上所述</strong>，郑棉期价大幅下行，刷新阶段性低位，轧花企业保持观望，下游纺织企业订单仍显不足、谨慎采购原料，棉花基差资源成交略有增加。买盘形成一定的支撑性，预计短期棉花价格偏弱震荡态势。</p> <p> </p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：卢冲 021-26094279 </br> 资讯监督：朱喜安 021-26093675 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.myagric.com/article/p-4806-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.myagric.com/article/p-4806-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> <ul> <li class="item"> 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