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class="content" id="article"><p> <span style="text-indent: 2em;">光刻机是半导体制造过程中价值量和技术壁垒最高的设备之一。全球光刻机市场规模超230亿美元，ASML处于绝对领先，国内市场规模超200亿元，但是国产化率仅2.5%。目前半导体制造工艺节点缩小至5nm及以下，曝光波长逐渐缩短至13.5nm，光刻技术逐步完善成熟，但是国内光刻机仍明显落后ASML。同时，美国对中国先进制程设备和技术围追堵截，光刻机处于核心“卡脖子”状态。产业本土化趋势下，制造环节先行，我们认为国产高端光刻机的发展有望获得推动，光刻机及半导体设备产业链将有望同步受益。</span></p> <p>▍光刻机：半导体制造过程中价值量、技术壁垒和时间占比最高的设备之一。</p> <p>一个指甲大小的芯片可以由上百亿个晶体管组成，制造工艺的难度和精细度要求极高。芯片制造过程是多层叠加的，上百亿只晶体管由金属线条连接起来，实现了芯片的功能。半导体设备是芯片制造的核心包括晶圆制造和封装测试等，其中光刻工艺是半导体制造的重要步骤之一，其成本约为整个硅片制造工艺的1/3，耗时约占整个硅片工艺的40～60%。光刻是半导体制造的重要步骤之一，实质为光源通过掩膜版将其附有的临时电路结构转移到硅片表面的光敏薄膜上，再通过一系列处理形成特定的电路结构。在芯片制造过程中，光刻机是决定制程工艺的关键设备，光刻机分辨率就越高，制程工艺越先进。</p> <p>▍市场概况：全球光刻机市场规模超230亿美元，ASML处于绝对领先，上海微实现国产零突破。</p> <p>2021/22年全球半导体设备市场规模均超千亿美元，其中晶圆制造中光刻设备为关键工艺设备，设备价值在晶圆厂单条产线成本中占比最高，根据Gartner预测，2022年全球晶圆制造设备市场中光刻设备占比21.3%，全球半导体光刻设备市场规模约231亿美元。全球来看：2022年全球光刻机年销量约为500台，主要市场被ASML、Canon、Nikon垄断，其中高端光刻机ASML处于绝对领先地位。国内来看：根据长江存储、华力集成、华虹无锡2015-2022年的招标数据，共公开采购光刻设备157台，总体国产化率为2.5%。其中荷兰的阿斯麦中标95台，占比60.5%；日本的佳能和尼康分别中标35/11台，占比分别为22.3%/7.0%。国内上海微电子光刻机目前实现国产替代，共中标3台，占比1.9%，未来有待继续突破实现高端国产替代。</p> <p>▍技术发展：工艺节点不断缩小至5nm及以下，曝光波长逐渐缩短至13.5nm，光刻技术逐步完善成熟。</p> <p>自20世纪60年代推出光刻机以来，光刻技术经历了接触/接近式光刻、光学投影光刻、步进重复光刻、扫描光刻、浸没式光刻到EUV光刻的发展历程。光刻设备的系统越来越复杂，范畴也不断拓展。我们根据北京集电DRAM项目的环评报告，对其芯片生产过程中光刻机的分层使用情况进行测算，先进制程产线依然对传统机型有较高需求。此外，未来技术来看，无掩模光刻及NIL压印或为替代路径，但技术发展仍存在较高不确定性。</p> <p>▍技术壁垒：光刻分辨率决定工艺区间，多重曝光技术拓展工艺边界。</p> <p>光刻工艺的关键指标为光刻分辨率（CD）、套刻精度（Overlay）和产能，决定了产品的定位和应用场景。回顾中国半导体设备的发展历史，“起步早、门类全、发展曲折”，目前和国际先进水平还有2代（ArFi、EUV技术）的差距，国内厂商正在努力追赶。我们认为，国内的先进光刻技术的发展有两条可以路线同时进行：一条是迭代浸没式DUV光刻机，实现多重曝光功能，另一条是长期布局EUV光刻技术。</p> <p>▍光刻机产业链：上万个零部件，上千家供应商，全球协作打造高端设备。</p> <p>半导体制程越先进，需要光刻设备越精密复杂，包括高频率的激光光源、光掩模的对位精度、设备稳定度等，集合许多领域的最尖端技术。光刻机生产制造的技术要求极高，ASML一台光刻机包含了10万个零部件，主要部件包含测量台与曝光台、激光器、光束矫正器、能量控制器等11个模块。目前国内以上海微电子为首的光刻机产业链已初具雏形，全产业链均在快速发展。除光刻机整机集成外，还包括光源、物镜与照明系统、双工件台、浸没系统等关键组成部分，与显影涂胶及量测检测的配套设备均在快速成长。</p> <p>▍风险因素：</p> <p>政策支持力度不及预期，先进技术创新不及预期，国际产业环境变化和贸易摩擦加剧风险，技术路线革新，下游需求波动等。</p> <p>▍投资策略：</p> <p>我们认为，国内对于光刻机产业链的投资和支持力度持续加大，国产高端光刻机的发展有望获得推动，半导体设备产业链将有望同步受益。我们认为，未来若DUV及EUV设备逐步实现国产化突破，对28nm和14nm产线有能力逐步实现国产替代，有望迎来新一轮的半导体扩产周期。建议关注受到光刻机“卡脖子”问题影响的半导体制造、设备、零部件自主化替代的相关公司，尤其是光刻工艺相关的设备和零部件厂商。</p> <p>本文源自：券商研报精选</p></div> </div> <div class="award"><div onclick="Go('http://www.casmita.com/member/award.php?mid=21&itemid=13447');">打赏</div></div><div id="comment" style="display:;"> <div class="block-head"><a href="http://www.casmita.com/comment/index.php?mid=21&itemid=13447"><b id="comment_count" class="px16 f_red">0</b> 条评论</a></div> <div id="comment_main"><div></div></div> </div> <script type="text/javascript" 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