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type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Jim Malo, Tawar Razaghi"},"dateModified":"2024-11-05T18:00:00+00:00","datePublished":"2024-11-05T18:00:00+00:00","description":"Would-be home buyers have been hit by a lose-lose situation since interest rates began to rise and future cuts may not act as previously expected.","headline":"How - and why - it just got even harder to buy a home in 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href="/topic/interest-rates-5yo">Interest rates</a></li></ul><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://www.smh.com.au/property","name":"Property"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://www.smh.com.au/property/news","name":"News"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://www.smh.com.au/topic/interest-rates-5yo","name":"Interest rates"}}]}</script></div><p class="wug9S"><span>This was published <!-- -->3<!-- --> <!-- -->months<!-- --> ago</span></p><h1 data-testid="headline" itemProp="headline">How - and why - it just got even harder to buy a home in Australia</h1></div></div></header><section class="x5U69"><div class="eyqx4"><div class="YjR-r"><h5 class="ey7KU"><span class="WAXFI">By </span><span><span data-testid="byline"><a href="/by/jim-malo-gt02ms" title="Articles by Jim Malo">Jim Malo</a></span> and <span data-testid="byline"><a href="/by/tawar-razaghi-h0xcpr" title="Articles by Tawar Razaghi">Tawar Razaghi</a></span></span></h5><div class=""> <span class="_6rKYd"><time class="xt6gv" data-testid="datetime" dateTime="2024-11-06T05:00:00+11:00">November 6, 2024 — 5.00am</time></span></div></div></div><div class="Xzt9c noPrint"><div class="dDuGY"><div class="wMz9s"><button aria-checked="false" aria-describedby="saveTooltip" aria-label="Save article to read later" class="lYnY4" role="switch" type="button"><svg aria-hidden="true" class="kTpHl IIE5G" focusable="false" height="1em" width="1em"><use xlink:href="#icon-save"></use></svg><span class="_1UKiw">Save</span></button><div aria-hidden="true" class="GvnJU gD20Q" id="saveTooltip" role="tooltip"><button>Log in</button>,<!-- --> <a data-testid="login-register" href="https://smh.myfairfax.com.au/channel/zHE9EWDHf1XPuz3Phk0YIg/members/signups/new?callback_uri=">register</a> <!-- -->or <a 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data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="component" data-ffx-event-label="font size extra large" data-ffx-event-value="0" data-ffx-hittype="event">Very large text size</button></div></div></div></div></section><section class="mm0yF" data-testid="article-body-top"><aside class="KxH15"><div class="rwQwy"><header><h2>Property listings</h2></header><div id="dg-recommended-listings"></div></div><div class="FCOQC _2ylTh"><div class="container"><div class="adWrapper IMjKL noPrint" data-testid="ad"><small class="CtZLl">Advertisement</small><div class="" id="adspot-160x600_300x250_300x600-pos2-desktop"></div></div></div></div></aside><div class="wsquJ" data-testid="article-body"><div><div class="TqQ8t"><div class="PMdfl" id="beyondwords-player"></div><div class="_--xHC" data-testid="showPlayerOverlay"></div></div><div class="Hy4HP z5wPE" data-testid="body-content"><p>Would-be home buyers have been hit by a lose-lose situation of falling borrowing capacity and property prices that have not followed suit, making housing affordability worse.</p><p>Modest declines in median house values in cities such as Melbourne have been outpaced by cratering borrowing capacities, experts say, while Sydney’s median house value is now higher than when interest rates began rising.</p><figure class="_72JXS _0SAJQ mSNnk Wnq-J" data-testid="image"><div aria-label="enlarge image" class="-IWVI" role="button" tabindex="0"><picture class=""><source media="(min-width: 1024px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.32%2C$multiply_0.9788%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/7fc809c8907b6ebb657369565baa1ec576f94d9c, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.32%2C$multiply_1.9577%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/7fc809c8907b6ebb657369565baa1ec576f94d9c 2x" height="494" width="740"/><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.32%2C$multiply_1.0159%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/7fc809c8907b6ebb657369565baa1ec576f94d9c, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.32%2C$multiply_2.0317%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/7fc809c8907b6ebb657369565baa1ec576f94d9c 2x" height="512" width="768"/><img alt="Home values have not matched the falls in borrowing capacity." src="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.32%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/7fc809c8907b6ebb657369565baa1ec576f94d9c" height="390" width="584" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.32%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/7fc809c8907b6ebb657369565baa1ec576f94d9c, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.32%2C$multiply_1.545%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/7fc809c8907b6ebb657369565baa1ec576f94d9c 2x"/></picture></div><figcaption class="qTXWa"><p><span class="_5nQzY">Home values have not matched the falls in borrowing capacity.</span><cite class="Zo2UY"><span class="ALMCC">Credit: </span>Steven Siewert</cite></p></figcaption></figure><p>A household earning twice the average income has had their borrowing capacity slashed by $307,000 since the Reserve Bank began hiking rates in May 2022 – a 24 per cent decrease, Canstar modelling shows. A single’s borrowing capacity also fell 24 per cent, by $132,000.</p><p>There are no capital cities where house prices have fallen by close to 24 per cent. Hobart, the deepest drop, was down 13.1 per cent. Melbourne fell 7.2 per cent and Sydney’s median house value is 4.4 per cent higher than pre-rate hikes.</p></div><div class="GJua6"></div><div class="Hy4HP z5wPE" data-testid="body-content"><p>A dual-income household could borrow a maximum $1,271,000 in April 2022, Canstar estimates show. Now, they could borrow about $964,000 to add to their deposit despite modest growth in wages over the period. A single could borrow only $421,000.</p><p>Interest rate rises had the biggest effect on borrowing capacity; 13 hikes brought the cash rate from its record low of 0.1 per cent to 4.35 per cent, <a href="/link/follow-20170101-p5knwg">where it was held again on Tuesday</a>.</p><div class="Bvs8k noPrint"><div class="cFXtp _5-9mZ"><iframe class="_2dcOW _5-9mZ _7Dkql" data-testid="embed-iframe" frameBorder="0" height="157" data-src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gpxlM/1/" title="Embedded iFrame"></iframe></div></div><p>Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said borrowing capacities had been “shredded” by the hikes, which had in turn made it harder to buy Australia’s already unaffordable property.</p><p>“For property hotspots, largely Sydney, prices have broadly stayed the same when you compare pre-hike prices to today,” she said. “Yet someone’s borrowing capacity has gone through the shredder.</p></div></div></div></section><div class="PFPZd"><div class="container"><div class="adWrapper IMjKL noPrint" data-testid="ad"><small class="CtZLl">Advertisement</small><div class="" id="adspot-728x90_970x250-pos99-desktop"></div></div></div></div><section class="KylbS" data-testid="article-body-bottom"><div class="wsquJ"><div><div class="Hy4HP z5wPE" data-testid="body-content"><p>“Melbourne is one of the cities where prices have actually dropped, but not in line with capacity.”</p><p>Buyers hoping to buy into previously affordable markets such as Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth would have to contend with higher median values than Melbourne, Tindall said.</p><div class="Bvs8k noPrint"><div class="cFXtp _5-9mZ"><iframe class="_2dcOW _5-9mZ _7Dkql" data-testid="embed-iframe" frameBorder="0" height="157" data-src="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/modules/graphic-embed/?resizable=true&v=196&configUrl=https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/hub/configs/graphic-embed/36483.json&v=0.8210889366254193" title="Embedded iFrame"></iframe></div></div><p>“It’s not surprising to see the capital cities that originally had lower price tags go through significant growth where the supply and demand equation doesn’t stack up,” she said. “Borrowers there weren’t borrowing at maximum capacity so they were less encumbered by rate hikes.”</p><p>AMP Capital chief economist Dr Shane Oliver said house prices were about 26 per cent higher than they should be, based on the assumption prices were tied to borrowing capacities. At its peak, the gap was about 29 per cent, he said.</p></div><div class="GJua6"></div><div class="Hy4HP z5wPE" data-testid="body-content"><p>“There has been some improvement in households’ capacity to pay because interest rates have been on hold over the last year now and incomes have gone up a little bit, but we’re still in a situation where the gap is wide and that hasn’t changed.”</p><p>CBA’s head of Australian economist Gareth Aird said buyers needed larger deposits and had to pay higher repayments because of the mismatch between house prices and borrowing capacities.</p><figure class="_72JXS _0SAJQ mSNnk Wnq-J" data-testid="image"><div aria-label="enlarge image" class="-IWVI" role="button" tabindex="0"><picture class=""><source media="(min-width: 1024px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_0.9788%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/d21abfa5fa85becb717dacdfe01e7e2d3aa0121a, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_1.9577%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/d21abfa5fa85becb717dacdfe01e7e2d3aa0121a 2x" height="494" width="740"/><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_1.0159%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/d21abfa5fa85becb717dacdfe01e7e2d3aa0121a, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_2.0317%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/d21abfa5fa85becb717dacdfe01e7e2d3aa0121a 2x" height="512" width="768"/><img alt="Slashed borrowing capacities are causing buyers to reconsider entering the property market. " loading="lazy" src="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/d21abfa5fa85becb717dacdfe01e7e2d3aa0121a" height="390" width="584" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/d21abfa5fa85becb717dacdfe01e7e2d3aa0121a, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_1.545%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/d21abfa5fa85becb717dacdfe01e7e2d3aa0121a 2x"/></picture></div><figcaption class="qTXWa"><p><span class="_5nQzY">Slashed borrowing capacities are causing buyers to reconsider entering the property market. </span><cite class="Zo2UY"><span class="ALMCC">Credit: </span>Dion Georgopoulos</cite></p></figcaption></figure><p>”From the perspective of a first home buyer trying to enter the market it’s harder now than it was a few years ago. It’s very tough,” he said, adding that many were turning to the bank of mum and dad as a result. Experts believe the transfer of intergenerational wealth to buy property was contributing to the decoupling of house prices and borrowing capacities.</p><p>Equilibria Finance founder and broker Anthony Landahl said the double whammy of rising mortgage rates and property prices had changed buyer behaviour while others had put off buying a home altogether.</p></div><div class="GJua6"></div><div class="Hy4HP z5wPE" data-testid="body-content"><p>“Buyers are changing the type of property they are able to purchase; they’re looking at a townhouse or a unit instead of a house,” Landahl said.</p><div class="J-2pM ZfcXI iQkQu noPrint"><span class="wekbt JWiCP tcU5i"><span class="EaK8B"></span><span class="q4Eba">Loading</span></span></div><p>He said that buyers were struggling to both enter the market and upgrade.</p><p>“Buyers might be looking at different areas, they might be trying to upgrade from a unit to a house and the gap is too big in terms of prices, so they have to look three, or four, or five suburbs away or even further away,” he said.</p><p>“The price gap between houses and units has really widened and that’s making the challenge of upgrading in the same area even more difficult.”</p></div><div class="GJua6"></div><div class="Hy4HP z5wPE" data-testid="body-content"><p>Oliver said it wasn’t a sure bet house prices would run away again once rates were cut because it was unlikely they would return to ultra-low levels seen since the GFC and buyers would no longer have access to cheap debt.</p><p>“If, say, the RBA just cuts the cash rate four times and go to 3.35 per cent … that’s still higher than where it was … the capacity to pay won’t be as high as it was in 2021.</p><p>“We may get a situation where one of the biggest drivers of property prices over the last 30 years is no longer a factor,” he said. “It’s lucky country stuff.”</p></div></div><div class="noPrint"><div></div><div></div></div><div class="wuhVx"><div class="_6KG-J" 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home buyers have been hit by a lose-lose situation since interest rates began to rise and future cuts may not act as previously expected.\",\"allowComments\":false,\"body\":\"<p>Would-be home buyers have been hit by a lose-lose situation of falling borrowing capacity and property prices that have not followed suit, making housing affordability worse.</p><p>Modest declines in median house values in cities such as Melbourne have been outpaced by cratering borrowing capacities, experts say, while Sydney\\u2019s median house value is now higher than when interest rates began rising.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"62affa6fec28e1788936f2c3fed5d3a90a628842\\\"></x-placeholder><p>A household earning twice the average income has had their borrowing capacity slashed by $307,000 since the Reserve Bank began hiking rates in May 2022 \\u2013 a 24 per cent decrease, Canstar modelling shows. A single\\u2019s borrowing capacity also fell 24 per cent, by $132,000.</p><p>There are no capital cities where house prices have fallen by close to 24 per cent. Hobart, the deepest drop, was down 13.1 per cent. Melbourne fell 7.2 per cent and Sydney\\u2019s median house value is 4.4 per cent higher than pre-rate hikes.</p><p>A dual-income household could borrow a maximum $1,271,000 in April 2022, Canstar estimates show. Now, they could borrow about $964,000 to add to their deposit despite modest growth in wages over the period. A single could borrow only $421,000.</p><p>Interest rate rises had the biggest effect on borrowing capacity; 13 hikes brought the cash rate from its record low of 0.1 per cent to 4.35 per cent, <x-placeholder id=\\\"5b55404edd4b3630916c0a99e379f2f8d8957f02\\\"></x-placeholder>.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"011d238555df8ea003ab200e234320ea7d271292\\\"></x-placeholder><p>Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said borrowing capacities had been \\u201Cshredded\\u201D by the hikes, which had in turn made it harder to buy Australia\\u2019s already unaffordable property.</p><p>\\u201CFor property hotspots, largely Sydney, prices have broadly stayed the same when you compare pre-hike prices to today,\\u201D she said. \\u201CYet someone\\u2019s borrowing capacity has gone through the shredder.</p><p>\\u201CMelbourne is one of the cities where prices have actually dropped, but not in line with capacity.\\u201D</p><p>Buyers hoping to buy into previously affordable markets such as Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth would have to contend with higher median values than Melbourne, Tindall said.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"815a1cc0d5232f2c7af755313cbef0693e33bd91\\\"></x-placeholder><p>\\u201CIt\\u2019s not surprising to see the capital cities that originally had lower price tags go through significant growth where the supply and demand equation doesn\\u2019t stack up,\\u201D she said. \\u201CBorrowers there weren\\u2019t borrowing at maximum capacity so they were less encumbered by rate hikes.\\u201D</p><p>AMP Capital chief economist Dr Shane Oliver said house prices were about 26 per cent higher than they should be, based on the assumption prices were tied to borrowing capacities. At its peak, the gap was about 29 per cent, he said.</p><p>\\u201CThere has been some improvement in households\\u2019 capacity to pay because interest rates have been on hold over the last year now and incomes have gone up a little bit, but we\\u2019re still in a situation where the gap is wide and that hasn\\u2019t changed.\\u201D</p><p>CBA\\u2019s head of Australian economist Gareth Aird said buyers needed larger deposits and had to pay higher repayments because of the mismatch between house prices and borrowing capacities.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"7b32f82669ba8dfd050a91e7647f083e1315d17e\\\"></x-placeholder><p>\\u201DFrom the perspective of a first home buyer trying to enter the market it\\u2019s harder now than it was a few years ago. It\\u2019s very tough,\\u201D he said, adding that many were turning to the bank of mum and dad as a result. Experts believe the transfer of intergenerational wealth to buy property was contributing to the decoupling of house prices and borrowing capacities.</p><p>Equilibria Finance founder and broker Anthony Landahl said the double whammy of rising mortgage rates and property prices had changed buyer behaviour while others had put off buying a home altogether.</p><p>\\u201CBuyers are changing the type of property they are able to purchase; they\\u2019re looking at a townhouse or a unit instead of a house,\\u201D Landahl said.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"2227e0ba24313066a6fd1e412c202e6e39fc778d\\\"></x-placeholder><p>He said that buyers were struggling to both enter the market and upgrade.</p><p>\\u201CBuyers might be looking at different areas, they might be trying to upgrade from a unit to a house and the gap is too big in terms of prices, so they have to look three, or four, or five suburbs away or even further away,\\u201D he said.</p><p>\\u201CThe price gap between houses and units has really widened and that\\u2019s making the challenge of upgrading in the same area even more difficult.\\u201D</p><p>Oliver said it wasn\\u2019t a sure bet house prices would run away again once rates were cut because it was unlikely they would return to ultra-low levels seen since the GFC and buyers would no longer have access to cheap debt.</p><p>\\u201CIf, say, the RBA just cuts the cash rate four times and go to 3.35 per cent \\u2026 that\\u2019s still higher than where it was \\u2026 the capacity to pay won\\u2019t be as high as it was in 2021.</p><p>\\u201CWe may get a situation where one of the biggest drivers of property prices over the last 30 years is no longer a factor,\\u201D he said. \\u201CIt\\u2019s lucky country stuff.\\u201D</p><x-placeholder 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