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src="/web/20160602061310im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201605/0518t/drought-2016-in-thailand/4514940-1-eng-GB/Drought-2016-in-Thailand_article_main_image.jpg" width="580" alt=""/> <p class="img-caption"> Drought-hit cassava farmer points to her dried-up field with stunted product in hand in Nakhon Sawan, northern central Thailand, in late April, 2016. (Photo by Tamaki Kyozuka) </p> </div> </div> <div class="article-box detail"> <div class="wysiwyg_area"> <div class="articleBodyText"> <p>BANGKOK -- Rising sugar prices, bolstered by the parched conditions across Asia's farming heartland, are beginning to affect a range of businesses including consumer goods companies and sugar production groups.</p><p>Sugar was one of the few soft commodities to have seen its price hold steady over the course of 2015 despite a midyear plunge to six-and-a-half-year lows of 10.86 cents per pound on ICE.</p><div class="page_limit free"></div><div class="page_limit"></div><p>After starting the year at 15.24 cents per pound, sugar had dipped below 13 cents per pound by February, despite widespread predictions that this year would see a rare deficit between sugar supply and demand across the globe.</p><p>But by May 2, sugar futures had surged to 16.87 cents per pound, an 18-month high, before retreating slightly to 16.70 cents per pound by May 13. Analysts said they expected sugar to continue to trade at similar levels in coming months.</p><p>The key reason for the recent price rise is that sugar crops in the world's second and fourth largest exporters, Thailand and India, have been hit hard by the El Nino weather cycle. Warm ocean temperatures off the South American coast trigger drier weather from South Africa to South and Southeast Asia and Australia. Conversely, El Nino brings on wetter seasons in the Americas and parts of North Asia.</p><p>Diversified commodities and biofuel producer Mitr Phol Sugar Group, the largest sugar producer in Thailand and the world's second biggest exporter of the refined sweetener after Brazil, said it expects a tough year ahead, despite high prices. Sugar contributed 42.8% of the group's revenues.</p><p>Mitr Pohl President and CEO Krisda Monthienvichienchai forecast another challenging year in 2016 for the Thai economy in an April news conference. He cited the uncertain global economic outlook and other factors challenging Thai exports, including the most severe droughts in 20 years that are hitting the agricultural sector.</p><p>Sugar is Thailand's second most valuable agricultural export behind rice. Once the global leader, Thailand now faces formidable rivals Vietnam and India, which have both topped export tables in recent years.</p><p>Further downstream in the sugar chain, the Philippine arm of drinks and snack maker PepsiCo blamed steeper sugar prices for a 17% drop in its profit for the first quarter of the year to 159.26 million pesos ($3.41 million) from 191.99 million pesos a year ago at its May 3 first quarter announcement.</p><p>"It was a tough quarter from a profit perspective, largely due to very high sugar prices versus the same period last year," Pepsi-Cola Products Philippines said in a statement. "We are further accelerating our productivity journey to mitigate the impact of sugar pricing for the balance of the year."</p><div class="page_break auto free"></div><div class="page_break auto"></div><p>Primary producers are also losing money, as higher prices failed to compensate for smaller crops and lower sugar yields, the key metric for farm gate prices.</p><p>"We have groundwater but some farms around here do not have enough water and can't plant new sugar cane," said Nipon Wongsitha, a sugar farmer whose family have been growing cane for the past 50 years.</p><p>Standing among freshly planted cane in one of his sugar fields outside Khalakao village in the parched Suphan Buri Province, northwest of Bangkok, Nipon said that low rainfall had also desiccated his crop.</p><p>"We have been getting 20-30% less sugar from the sugar cane than we did last year when rainfall was also low," he added. As Nipon is forced to drill deeper for artesian water, he has been forced to cut back his new planting by about 20% for the next season.</p><p><b>Rising debt</b></p><p>Thailand's Chamber of Commerce's Center for Economic and Business Forecasting said that the total debt of Thailand's sugar farmers will increase by 12% this year, compared with last year.</p><p>Figures released in April by the U.S. Department of Agriculture which tracks global food production said that Thailand's sugar production in the 2015-2016 marketing year is expected to decline to 9.7 million tons, down 10% from the previous year.</p><p>But it added that Thailand's sugar exports in the same period are expected to increase by 7% from a year ago as exporters "are likely to run down their inventories, particularly as world sugar prices rebound and drought conditions in sugar-producing countries continue to exist."</p><p>In its annual report on India's sugar industry on May 2, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted that India will produce 27.7 million tons of sugar in the year ending in October. That will mark a decline from the 30.5 million tons of sugar produced in the previous 12 months.</p><p>But concerns over poor crops in Asia have been somewhat alleviated by the promise of bumper returns in Brazil, the world's biggest producer and exporter of sugar. Brazilian Sugar Cane Industry Association expects a 10% increase for the season, which will make it the second largest sugar cane crop.</p><p>In addition, a smaller percentage of Brazil's crop is also expected to be used for the production of alternative fuel, ethanol, as global oil prices continue to stay low. The USDA forecast a 2% percent rise to 43% for the slice of the crop used to produce sugar. Brent crude prices are still volatile, hovering around mid-$40 per barrel.</p><p>On the demand side, investment bank Citi said that demand from China, the fourth largest importer, will continue to grow as domestic production shrinks in favor of more valuable crops.</p><p>"We expect domestic sugar cane production to continue falling as farmers feel pressure from cheap imported sugar and increasing labor costs," said the Citi report. It also said that in the long run, Chinese sugar demand "is expected to see strong growth as increased wealth translates to higher [sugary] diets."</p><p>There is also some hope on the horizon for drought-hit Asian farmers keen to take better advantage of higher prices as meteorologists predict that El Nino would be followed by La Nina, the converse weather pattern.</p><p>La Nina would bring better-than-expected rainfall across most of the Asia-Pacific region, including the main sugar producing nations of Thailand, the Philippines and India. 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