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4.1"/> <link rel="shortlink" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/?p=5616"/> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258cs_/http://www.arescotx.com/wp-content/plugins/flexi-quote-rotator/styles/" type="text/css" media="screen"/> <script type="text/javascript"> quoteRotator = { i: 1, quotes: ["<span id='quote'>As of mid 2013, Texas has approximately 830 active drilling rigs, which accounts for around 47 percent of all U.S. drilling rigs and one quarter of drilling rigs worldwide.</span> <span id='quoteauthor'>Source: AEI Ideas</span>", "<span id='quote'>Oil production in the Lone Star State has more than doubled in less than three years, from 1.142 million barrels of oil per day (BOPD)聽in July 2010 to 2.295 million BOPD聽in February 2013.</span> <span id='quoteauthor'>Source: AEI Ideas</span>", "<span id='quote'>The exponential increase in Texas oil output over roughly the last three years has completely reversed the previous 23-year decline in the state鈥檚 oil production that took place from 1986 to 2009.</span> <span id='quoteauthor'>Source: AEI Ideas</span>", "<span id='quote'>In mid-2009, Texas was producing less than 20% of America鈥檚 domestic crude oil. 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class="text"> <div id="content"> <h1>Has Shale Disrupted Oil Investment Metrics?</h1> <div class="wp-socializer-buttons clearfix"> <span class="wpsr-btn">  <div class="fb-like" data-href="http://www.arescotx.com/has-shale-disrupted-oil-investment-metrics/" data-share="false" data-layout="button_count" data-show-faces="0" data-action="like" data-colorscheme="light"></div>  </span> <span class="wpsr-btn">  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://twitter.com/share" class="twitter-share-button" data-count="horizontal" data-via="ArescoLP" data-lang="en" data-url="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/has-shale-disrupted-oil-investment-metrics/" data-text="Has Shale Disrupted Oil Investment Metrics? - "></a>  </span> <span class="wpsr-btn">  <div class="g-plusone" data-size="medium" data-href="http://www.arescotx.com/has-shale-disrupted-oil-investment-metrics/"></div>  </span> <span class="wpsr-btn">  <script type="IN/Share" data-url="http://www.arescotx.com/has-shale-disrupted-oil-investment-metrics/" data-counter="right"></script>  </span> <span class="wpsr-btn">  <div style="padding-right:50px"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://pinterest.com/pin/create/button/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.arescotx.com%2Fhas-shale-disrupted-oil-investment-metrics%2F&media=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.arescotx.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Foil-investments-600.jpg" data-pin-do="buttonPin" data-pin-config="beside"><img border="0" src="//web.archive.org/web/20150312104258im_/http://assets.pinterest.com/images/pidgets/pinit_fg_en_rect_gray_20.png" alt="Pinterest" title="Pin It"/></a></div>  </span> </div><p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/wp-content/uploads/oil-investments-600.jpg" rel="lightbox-0"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-5619" style="border: 0px none; margin: 5px 10px;" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258im_/http://www.arescotx.com/wp-content/uploads/oil-investments-600-300x235.jpg" alt="Oil Investments in Permian Basin Shale" width="300" height="235"/></a>Oil price slide disruptions won鈥檛 last much longer. So says the <a title="International Energy Agency" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.wsj.com/articles/plunge-in-oil-prices-unlikely-to-last-much-longer-iea-says-1423530032" target="_blank">International Energy Agency</a>. Though oil production development in the U.S. is in the throes of a contraction鈥攔igs are shutter down faster than expected鈥攖he IEA says prices should come back sharply by 2017 as production growth slows.</p> <p>Total U.S. rotary rig counts have plunged over the last several weeks: from a high of 1,931 for the week ending September 26, 2014 <a title="Oil Rig Counts Over View" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverview" target="_blank">to just 1,358 by February 13, 2015</a> according to Baker Hughes. That鈥檚 a dive of 30 percent. The year over year figure saw totals shed 406 rigs, a drop of 23 percent. Recent week over week rig count declines have been the <a title="Oil Rig Count Declines" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/u-s-oil-rig-count-declines-for-eighth-consecutive-week" target="_blank">sharpest in decades</a>.<span id="more-5616"></span></p> <p><strong>Shale Agility</strong></p> <p>It鈥檚 clear that shale producers have feverishly focused on restructuring operations to conserve resources until supply and demand realigns and prices rebound. The rapid response among shale producers has nudged prices up over the last few weeks from their January lows. Prices (<a title="West Texas Intermediate" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/west-texas-intermediate/">West Texas Intermediate</a>) dipped to their 52-week low of $43.58 per barrel in latte January before edging up to the 50-dollar range in mid February, <a title="Crude Oil" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic" target="_blank">hitting $53. 53 on February 17</a>. The 52-week high of $100.52 was struck in late June 2014.</p> <p>Prices appear to be responding to production shifts more rapidly than the U.S. <a title="Energy Information Administration" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/energy-information-administration-eia/">Energy Information Administration</a> had predicted in its <a title="U.S. Energy Information Administration Oil Outlook" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/archives/feb15.pdf" target="_blank">February short-term outlook</a>. That鈥檚 because both shale producers and conventional producers put on hold many new drilling projects and temporarily delayed existing well completions until prices rebound. However, shale developers must focus more intensely on current prices and short-term outlook than do conventional developers because of the higher cost of <a title="Hydraulic Fracturing" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/hydraulic-fracturing/">hydraulic fracturing</a> or <a title="Fracking" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/fracking/">fracking</a>.</p> <p>The result is that both the shale industry and conventional producers will have surplus production capacity in the form of uncompleted wells ready to be activated. Rapid production decline expresses an agility to swiftly ramp-up of production when prices rebound. Shale areas such as the <a title="Permian Basin" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/permian-basin/">Permian Basin</a>, <a title="Eagle Ford Shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/eagle-ford-shale/">Eagle Ford Shale</a>, and the <a title="Bakken Shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/bakken-shale/">Bakken</a>, are well positioned to reap the benefits from a price recovery. In fact, the EIA is projecting that U.S. crude production will average 9.5 million barrels per day in 2016鈥攖he second highest production level in U.S. history after 1970, which hit 9.6 million barrels per day.</p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/should-i-invest-in-oil-gas/" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-5412 size-full" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258im_/http://www.arescotx.com/wp-content/uploads/why-now-is-the-time-to-invest-in-oil.png" alt="Why now is the time to invest in oil..." width="600" height="40"/></a></p> <p><strong>Barrels at Two Benjamins</strong><strong>?</strong></p> <p>But downward price pressures may severely dampen global production. OPEC鈥檚 Secretary General Abdallah el-Badri says prices have already bottomed out. He sees a real possibility that <a title="OPEC sees $200 per barrel oil" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/02/03/opec-sees-oil-prices-exploding-to-200-a-barrel/22800331/" target="_blank">oil will hit $200 per barrel</a>. As oil companies have made deep cuts in capital spending, he says, production growth will be throttled. He warns the industry is putting future oil supplies at risk with its current anemic investment levels. Might the deft responsiveness of shale producers rend this warning鈥攁t least partially鈥攎oot?</p> <p>Back in November, <a title="OPEC" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/opec/">OPEC</a> elected not to shore up prices by slashing production. Instead, it embarked on a strategy to defend its market share. Lower prices have exacted a severe toll on the oil cartel in terms of economic impact. But demand for its output edged up to 29.3 million barrels per day鈥攋ust below its quota of 30 million barrels per day. The market share strategy appears to have paid off.</p> <p>Either way you slice it, U.S. shale production will be a major source of new supplies through the end of the decade. It may even gain ground, as other sources of non-OPEC production take longer to recover from price plunge disruptions.</p> <div class="nextpages"></div> <p><b><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/bradley-winton-joins-aresco-as-vp-of-exploration/">previous post: Bradley Winton Joins Aresco as VP of Exploration!</a></b></p> <p><b><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/crude-oil-export-ban-the-talk-of-the-industry/">next post: Crude Oil Export Ban the Talk of the Industry</a></b></p> </div> <div id="sidebar"> <div id="flags" class="size"><ul id="sortable" class="ui-sortable" style="float:left"><li id="English"><a title="English" class="notranslate flag en"></a></li></ul></div><div id="google_language_translator"></div> <p class="titles">Recent News</p> <ul> <li> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/office-closed-march-5th/">Office Closed – March 5th</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/crude-oil-export-ban-the-talk-of-the-industry/">Crude Oil Export Ban the Talk of the Industry</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/has-shale-disrupted-oil-investment-metrics/">Has Shale Disrupted Oil Investment Metrics?</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/bradley-winton-joins-aresco-as-vp-of-exploration/">Bradley Winton Joins Aresco as VP of Exploration!</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/crude-oil-price-plunge-ripples-will-be-short-lived/">Crude Oil Price Plunge Ripples Will be Short Lived</a> </li> </ul> <style scoped type="text/css">.utcw-b1fq2ep {word-wrap:break-word}.utcw-b1fq2ep span,.utcw-b1fq2ep a{border-width:0px}.utcw-b1fq2ep span:hover,.utcw-b1fq2ep a:hover{border-width:0px}</style><p class="titles">Tag Cloud</p><div class="utcw-b1fq2ep tagcloud"><a class="tag-link-54 utcw-tag utcw-tag-anadarko-basin" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/anadarko-basin/" style="font-size:10.8333333333px" title="2 topics">Anadarko Basin</a> <a class="tag-link-43 utcw-tag utcw-tag-bakken-shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/bakken-shale/" style="font-size:13.3333333333px" title="5 topics">Bakken Shale</a> <a class="tag-link-35 utcw-tag utcw-tag-barnett-shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/barnett-shale/" style="font-size:11.6666666667px" title="3 topics">Barnett Shale</a> <a class="tag-link-68 utcw-tag utcw-tag-bradley-winton" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/bradley-winton/" style="font-size:10px" title="1 topic">Bradley Winton</a> <a class="tag-link-20 utcw-tag utcw-tag-brandon-laxton" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/brandon-laxton/" style="font-size:10.8333333333px" title="2 topics">Brandon Laxton</a> <a class="tag-link-46 utcw-tag utcw-tag-brazos-basin" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/brazos-basin/" style="font-size:10.8333333333px" title="2 topics">Brazos Basin</a> <a class="tag-link-63 utcw-tag utcw-tag-bridgetex-pipeline" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/bridgetex-pipeline/" style="font-size:10px" title="1 topic">BridgeTex Pipeline</a> <a class="tag-link-61 utcw-tag utcw-tag-canyon-sandstone" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/canyon-sandstone/" style="font-size:10.8333333333px" title="2 topics">Canyon Sandstone</a> <a class="tag-link-52 utcw-tag utcw-tag-cline-shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/cline-shale/" style="font-size:10px" title="1 topic">Cline Shale</a> <a class="tag-link-51 utcw-tag utcw-tag-corpus-christi" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/corpus-christi/" style="font-size:10px" title="1 topic">Corpus Christi</a> <a class="tag-link-7 utcw-tag utcw-tag-crude-oil-prices" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/crude-oil-prices/" style="font-size:13.3333333333px" title="5 topics">Crude Oil Prices</a> <a class="tag-link-39 utcw-tag utcw-tag-domestic-oil-production" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/domestic-oil-production/" style="font-size:13.3333333333px" title="5 topics">Domestic Oil Production</a> <a class="tag-link-5 utcw-tag utcw-tag-drilling-technology" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/drilling-technology/" style="font-size:18.3333333333px" title="11 topics">Drilling Technology</a> <a class="tag-link-10 utcw-tag utcw-tag-eagle-ford-shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/eagle-ford-shale/" style="font-size:26.6666666667px" title="21 topics">Eagle Ford Shale</a> <a class="tag-link-33 utcw-tag utcw-tag-eagle-ford-shale-production" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/eagle-ford-shale-production/" style="font-size:12.5px" title="4 topics">Eagle Ford Shale Production</a> <a class="tag-link-16 utcw-tag utcw-tag-energy-information-administration-eia" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/energy-information-administration-eia/" style="font-size:14.1666666667px" title="6 topics">Energy Information Administration (EIA)</a> <a class="tag-link-36 utcw-tag utcw-tag-energy-production" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150312104258/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/energy-production/" style="font-size:10.8333333333px" title="2 topics">Energy Production</a> <a class="tag-link-42 utcw-tag utcw-tag-fracking" 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