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Roadway Crash Prediction Model Updating in Guangzhou, China - 交通安全研究与应用 - Traffic Safety Research And Application - 为您提供最新的交通安全研究和应用成果和信息
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">自动驾驶安全</a></li><li class="noselected"><a href="Paper.aspx?BYID=451 ">驾驶行为分析</a></li></ul> </div> </div> <div class="cl_right"> <style> .cl_right .cl_right_top { height: 40px; background-image: url(Images/cl_right_b1.jpg); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 14px; width: 100%; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221,221,221); } .cl_right .cl_right_top div { margin-left: 20px; margin-top: 13px; } .cl_right .cl_right_top div label { font-size: 14px; color: #434343; font-weight: 600; } .cl_right .cl_right_top div a { color: #0C58AC; text-decoration: none; } .cl_right .cl_right_top div a:hover { text-decoration: underline; } </style> <div class="cl_right_top"> <div> <label> 您现在的位置：</label><p id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_PaperRight_topl1_P_DaoHang" style="display: inline"><a href="Default.aspx">首页</a> >> <a href="Paper.aspx">学术论文</a> >> <a href="Paper.aspx?BYID=449">交通安全管理</a></p> </div> </div> <div class="cl_right_middle"> <h1 id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_P_Title" class="cl_right_title">Roadway Crash Prediction Model Updating in Guangzhou, China</h1> <p class="cl_right_shijian"> 发表时间：<label id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_Label_Date">2022/1/28</label> 阅读次数：<label id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_Label_ReadCount">3878</label> </p> <div id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_DIV_NeiRong" class="cl_right_message"><P>Abstract: Roadways, significant carriers of urban traffic, are essential to city safety improvement. Crash prediction models assist traffic administrators in identifying risk factors and estimate crash frequency, which play an essential role in traffic safety management. With crash occurrence and influencing factors change over time, however, the crash prediction models might not be suitable for current circumstances and even provided the wrong estimation for crash prediction. In order to explore the change of risk factors and crash frequency, this study conducted a longitudinal safety comparison of the urban roadway in Guangzhou, China. Utilizing the Bayesian negative binomial model framework, the relationships of crashes and safety influencing factors, such as road geometric characteristics, traffic operation characteristics, and road isolation facilities, have been accurately captured. Additionally, a two-stage Bayesian updating method was adopted to update the crash prediction model for 2020, based on informative prior information obtained from 2015. Modeling results indicated that updating an existing model is better than establishing a new model. Moreover, safety influencing factors had significant differences towards crashes longitudinally. The findings could be applied to long-term risk factors and hot spots identification, and more effective and well-targeted improvement measures can be implemented. </P><P>Xuesong Wang*, Chunting Nie, Zhicheng Dai. Roadway Crash Prediction Model Updating in Guangzhou, China. Transportation Research Board 101th Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., USA, 2022. 1.9-13.</P></div> <div class="cl_right_nextpre"> <ul id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_DIV_nextpre"><li> <a href="PaperContent.aspx?BYID=&ID=1357" >♦Traffic Safety Analysis and Model Updating for Freeway Using Bayesian Method</a></li><li> <a href="PaperContent.aspx?BYID=&ID=1359" >♦Regional Traffic Safety Assessment Considering Crashes and Violations: Safety...</a></li></ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="bottom"> <p> ©CopyRight 2003-2012 同济大学交通运输工程学院 </p> <p> <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="http://js.users.51.la/15629868.js"></script> <noscript> <a href="http://www.51.la/?15629868" target="_blank"> <img alt="我要啦免费统计" src="http://img.users.51.la/15629868.asp" style="border: none" /></a></noscript></p> <p> 备案号：<a href="https://beian.miit.gov.cn" target="_blank" style="color:#000">沪ICP备13005359号-1</a> <script type="text/javascript"> function checkRoot(user) { if (!user) { //window.parent.location.href = "index.html"; } } </script> </p> </div> </div> </form> </body> </html>