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Mysteel周报：全国带钢价格下调 预计下周市场震荡偏弱运行（5.24-5.31）-我的钢铁网
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style='color:#3861ab'>带钢</a>市场价格下行为主，各地价格跌幅在20-60元/吨。黑色系期货上下试探，虽说周内宏观利好消息发布提振市场心态，但目前终端采购需求有所放缓，整体情绪谨慎多变，需求表现并未对价格带来有力支撑。</p> <p>一、【价格方面】</p> <p>本周全国南北价差小幅扩大，北方市场价格反应较快，涨跌切换频繁，下游采购逢低补货。南方市场小幅累库，需求释放较缓慢，下游主动采购意愿不高，现货价格反应较慢。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 642.759px;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/31/df4f7f06feb342e7a0e2075856976802.png" width="600" height="642" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 262.759px;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/31/213161d4ab2347c6b81bc3b0c31e311f.png" width="600" height="262" /></p> <p>二、【数据方面】</p> <p>1、供应</p> <p><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>全国重点热轧带钢生产企业本周开工率 67.29%，周环比下降3.08个百分点；月环比下降0.30个百分点；产能利用率为 75.75%，周环比上升1.23个百分点 ；月环比上升2.56个百分点；本周钢厂实际产量为 220.64万吨，周环比 增加1.30万吨；月环比 增加5.20万吨；钢厂厂内库存为 34.73万吨，周环比 减少5.30万吨；月环比 减少4.48万吨。本周热轧带钢供应小幅下滑，目前部分地区全流程钢厂利润倒挂，出现减产、停产现象，而调坯厂及短流程钢厂持续受亏损影响，成本压力较大，后期仍有新增检修计划。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/31/f2ca9b9e309246ca965153e01524d4b5.png" width="521" height="296" /></p> <p>2、库存：</p> <p>截至30日本周全国热轧带钢主要市场样本库存总量95.18万吨，较上周增加1.86万吨，较上月同期减少8.11万吨，较去年同期增加25.23万吨。唐山热轧带钢样本库存62.06万吨，较上周增加2.55万吨，较去年同期增加23.93万吨。本周全国热轧带钢库存小幅增加，下游对高价资源接受程度一般，贸易商出货不佳，补货速度相对较慢。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 262.759px;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/31/fe67b511931f4bf190f55980b9857fb2.png" width="600" height="262" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/31/62f492ffeba243a984580459ffb490de.png" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p>3、需求：</p> <p>本周全国地区热轧带钢表观需求量224.08万吨，较上周增加5.52万吨，年同比增加3.53万吨。2024年5月28日，本网监测的霸州镀<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0204-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锌</a>带钢整体开工率 48.00%，周环比 0.00%；本周<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌</a>带钢产能利用率为 52.71%，周环比 0.00%。Mysteel直缝<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010903-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>生产企业（29家）周度调研数据显示，本周焊管产量37.93万吨，周环比增加0.87万吨，产能利用率为67.6%，周环比增长1.55%，开工率为80.7%，周环比基本持平，厂内库存为28.85万吨，周环比减少0.21万吨，原料库存为66.04万吨，周环比增加0.15万吨；<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010905-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌管</a>（28家）产量为29.33万吨，周环比减少0.41万吨，产能利用率为72.3%，周环比下降1.01%，开工率为90.16%，周环基本持平，厂内库存为42.06万吨，周环比增加1.34万吨，周锌锭用量为5963吨，周环比增加23吨。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/31/e33c9c40d0314ec0bc4da5ecf7afd9a1.png" width="505" height="288" /></p> <p>三、分析及预测</p> <p>本周全国热轧带钢价格趋弱运行，周内期货波动较大，涨跌节奏频繁切换，虽有宏观利好消息出现，短暂带动现货价格上涨，但目前下游普遍信心不足，轻库存为主。本周整体供应小幅下滑，钢厂挺价意愿仍存，然而下游需求增量并未如期跟进，去库存降速持续放缓，成交随着市场乐观情绪降温。</p> <p>唐山145带钢：本周唐山145带钢市场价格震荡下调，周五主流厂家报价3730元/吨，周比下降30元/吨。上半周黑色系期货涨跌频繁，市场谨慎观望为主，145带钢窄幅调整运行，周三夜盘受宏观面消息影响市场信心提振，期螺主力拉涨带动现货价格上调，但涨后市场并未出现明显的出货好转，下游恐高情绪凸现。下半周随着盘面重心的回落，市场逐步趋于理性，钢厂出货放缓后，价格出现弱势回调，目前唐山部分轧材厂亏损并未改善，开工率不断下降，市场供给维持低位，而价格上涨后下游需求端的采购节奏明显被延长，同时市场对于高价资源存在一定谨慎态度。目前市场处于供需双弱的局面，预计下周唐山145带钢价格震荡偏弱运行。</p> <p>唐山355带钢：本周黑色系期货上演“过山车”行情，唐山热轧带钢市场价格小幅下跌，截至发稿，355mm系列带钢报价3680元/吨，周环比降50元/吨。随着宏观利好热度渐退，市场回归现实，现货价格小幅走弱。目前下游镀锌<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>及管厂接单不畅，主动采购意愿偏低，拿货多为低价资源刚需补库。据统计，目前唐山地区社会库存为57.09万吨，周环比增加0.99万吨，叠加周初部分贸易商进行正套操作，社会库存开始累库。心态上来看，受行情震荡影响，市场商家谨慎情绪加重。综上所述，预计下周唐山市场带钢价格震荡趋弱运行。</p> <p>天津：本周天津热轧带钢市场价格走弱，整体成交不畅。本周宏观利好政策继续支撑热轧带钢价格，但下游目前成本倒挂，出货压力较大，因此补货意愿不佳，拿货速度较慢。钢厂目前订单尚可，短期挺价意愿较大，因此价格仍有支撑。综上，预计短期价格或继续坚挺为主。</p> <p>胜芳：本周胜芳热轧带钢价格小幅下跌，截止发稿，胜芳热轧带钢351-355mm报3730元/吨，680-720mm 报3750元/吨，市场整体成交一般。据本周二统计样本数据显示，本网监测的霸州镀锌带钢整体开工率 48.00%，周环比 -1.00%；本周镀锌带钢产能利用率为 52.71%，周环比0.00%。周初市场价格震荡运行，下游企业接单不畅，主动拿货意愿偏低，消耗厂内库存为主。随着周四和周五价格下调，下游开始低价补库，成交有所放量。由于近期盘面波动频繁，市场商家谨慎观望情绪加深。综合来看，预计下周胜芳热轧带钢市场价格或震荡趋弱运行。</p> <p>邯郸：本周邯郸地区热轧带钢市场价格持稳，涨后成交尚可。截止发稿，邯郸文丰3.5*468-590*C规格带钢高义报价3750元/吨，晋钢3760元/吨，周环比降10元/吨。本周邯郸市场成交一般，部分厂商带钢资源较少，交投集中在下游少量采购当中，部分厂商转经营板卷业务，纵剪资源相对普遍，窄规格资源缺货严重，库存消化加速，综合预计短期价格小幅调整运行，价格或下降幅度有限。</p> <p>莱芜：本周莱芜热轧带钢价格震荡下调，截至发稿，750-865mm报3800元/吨，下跌30元/吨，市场成交一般，卷带价差基本持平。本周随着房地产政策的推进，黑色系期货出现短暂高位震荡的情况，但由于下游需求释放不足，现货跟涨困难，后期受期货下落影响现货也有所下调。库存方面，莱芜带钢库存由降转增，基本面压力加剧。就目前来看，预计下周莱芜市场带钢价格继续维持震荡运行。</p> <p>无<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>：本周无锡热轧带钢市场价格震荡下行，截止发稿，磐石建龙2.5*232-355mm带钢报价3770元/吨，周比降30元/吨。伴随华东带钢库存加速消化，目前无锡带钢库存下降至10万吨以下，且库存里面包含5万吨不能动的套保资源，整体流动性加快，市场交投氛围尚可。本周南北价差有所修复，带钢价格相对坚挺，部分下游考虑采集热卷资源，预计下周带钢价格或维持坚挺，卷带价差及南北价差继续修复运行。</p> <p>宁波：本周宁波热轧带钢市场价格趋弱，整体成交冷清。目前浙江进入梅雨季，下游需求释放不佳，加之热轧带钢价格持续高位，下游补货意愿不佳，普遍观望为主。南北价差持续倒挂，基本无南下资源，因此短期宁波热轧带钢库存继续维持偏低水平，商家库存压力不大。综上，预计下周宁波热轧带钢市场价格或继续窄幅震荡运行。</p> <p>昆明：本周昆明带钢价格持稳运行，整体成交一般。目前鉴于昆明热轧卷板价格的低位运行阻碍了带钢价格的上行，整体持稳运行。整体看，季节性影响下热卷基本面矛盾有所增大，供需端政策陆续出台，预期交易过后，需要注意现实矛盾累积情况，短期有一定压力，但趋势走弱逻辑仍不强。</p> <p>乐从：本周乐从带钢价格震荡下行，整体成交转弱。之前行情上涨，主要依赖一系列新政策支持，但政策落实到微观，需要时间。短期行情难承载政策利好的持续带动，市场矛盾、情绪逐步回归基本面。下一步，如果现货有松动，可能带动期现两端仍有小幅回落空间。但目前不具备大跌基础，综合来看预计下周乐从热轧带钢震荡整理运行。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：高英男 021-26094158 </br> 资讯监督：崔萌萌 021-26094001 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div 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