'Brexit Britain' is outperforming Europe – but Labour threatens to ruin it all

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href="/authors/j/ju-jz/julian-jessop/">Julian Jessop</a> </span> </div> </span> <img class="responsive-image byline__author-image" width="1280" height="1280" alt=" " data-frz-ratio="1.00" src="/content/dam/Author%20photos/Julian-Jessop-Aug-2021-xlarge.png" data-frz-src-array="[{'src':'/content/dam/Author%20photos/Julian-Jessop-Aug-2021-xlarge.png','width':1280,'height':1280,'percentageImageRatio':'100'}]" data-js="lead-asset__image"/> </li> </ul> </div> </div>  <h1 class="e-headline u-heading-1 article-comment__header comment-headline--reskin" data-test="headline"> ‘Brexit Britain’ is outperforming Europe – but Labour threatens to ruin it all </h1> <p class="e-standfirst u-heading-4 " data-test="standfirst"> The new Labour Government’s policies risk snuffing out signs of recovery </p> </div> <div class=" tpl-action__below-header">  <button id="save-article-icon-A3CTw369T5LH" class="e-save-article " data-test="save-article" data-save-article='{ "id": "A3CTw369T5LH", "text": { "save": 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srcset="/content/dam/business/2024/08/02/TELEMMGLPICT000387471408_17226131970310_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqVwLO-91Z4BCfdqD_Wea4H9Lrqc4MvLJ6UhYm08SM67k.jpeg?imwidth=960" media="( min-width: 1280px )"/> <source srcset="/content/dam/business/2024/08/02/TELEMMGLPICT000387471408_17226131970310_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqVwLO-91Z4BCfdqD_Wea4H9Lrqc4MvLJ6UhYm08SM67k.jpeg?imwidth=680" media="( min-width: 768px )"/> <source srcset="/content/dam/business/2024/08/02/TELEMMGLPICT000387471408_17226131970310_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqVwLO-91Z4BCfdqD_Wea4H9Lrqc4MvLJ6UhYm08SM67k.jpeg?imwidth=350&imdensity=2" media="( min-width: 350px ) and ( -webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2 )"/> <source srcset="/content/dam/business/2024/08/02/TELEMMGLPICT000387471408_17226131970310_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqVwLO-91Z4BCfdqD_Wea4H9Lrqc4MvLJ6UhYm08SM67k.jpeg?imwidth=350" media="( min-width: 350px )"/> <img src="/content/dam/business/2024/08/02/TELEMMGLPICT000387471408_17226131970310_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqVwLO-91Z4BCfdqD_Wea4H9Lrqc4MvLJ6UhYm08SM67k.jpeg?imwidth=680" class="article-body-image__source" alt="Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor" fetchpriority="high" data-test="article-body-image-source" width="1551" height="970"/> </picture> </div> <figcaption class="e-caption u-meta e-caption--has-separator e-caption--hide-small-screens " data-js="caption"> <span data-test="caption"> The Chancellor is preparing infrastructure spending cuts and tax rises despite the UK's relatively strong performance </span> <span class="e-caption__credit" data-test="credit"> <span class="e-caption__credit-description">Credit</span>: Lucy North/Pool/AFP via Getty Images </span> </figcaption> </figure> </div> <div class="grid-col grid-col-12 tpl-article__layout tpl-article__layout--content "> <div class=" tpl-article-body-comment " data-js="article-body" data-test="tpl-article-body-recipe"> <div class="tpl-layout__mobile-comment"> <div class="tpl-layout__mobile-byline-comment"> <span class="e-byline-comment " data-test="byline"> <span class="e-byline-comment__meta e-byline-comment__meta--single" data-test="byline-comment"> <span class="e-byline-comment__details "> <a href="/authors/j/ju-jz/julian-jessop/" class="e-byline-comment__link e-byline-comment__link--single" rel="author" aria-label="Julian Jessop"> <span class="e-byline-comment__author">Julian Jessop</span> </a> <div class="tpl-date__mobile-comment">  <time class="e-published-date u-meta e-byline__date" datetime="2024-08-04T06:00+0100" data-test="time"> 04 August 2024 6:00am BST </time> </div> </span>  <img class="responsive e-byline-comment__author-image " src="/content/dam/Author%20photos/Julian-Jessop-Aug-2021-xlarge.png?imwidth=100" alt="Julian Jessop"/> </span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="articleBodyText section"> <div class="component article-body-text article-body-text--drop-cap article-body-text--drop-cap-comment " data-test="article-body-text"> <p>Let us start with the good news. The British economy is set to beat expectations this year and <a class="ck-custom-link" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/26/even-lacklustre-britain-outperforming-failing-europe/">outperform the euro area</a>, boosting the appeal of UK assets to overseas investors.</p><p>GDP grew by a solid 0.7pc in the first quarter, and this rate is likely to be matched in the second. Even allowing for a significant slowdown over the rest of the year, the economy is likely to be at least 2pc larger in the fourth quarter of 2024 than it was in the same period of 2023.</p><p>In contrast, <a class="ck-custom-link" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/16/fste-100-markets-live-news-labour-economic-pledges/">the recovery in the euro area is struggling to gain momentum</a>. GDP in the currency bloc only grew by 0.3pc in both the first and second quarters of the year. This included 0.3pc growth in France and 0.2pc in Italy, but the German economy shrank again, albeit by just 0.1pc.</p><p>Some caveats are necessary. For a start, the UK was the only G7 economy which contracted in both the third and fourth quarters of 2023, so the recent recovery comes from a lower base.</p><p>The UK numbers have also been flattered by rapid population growth. Adjusting for this, growth in GDP per head was still a respectable 0.5pc in the first quarter, but this followed seven consecutive quarters where this measure was flat or negative.</p><p>None the less, there is also now a striking divergence between the trends in business confidence in the UK compared to the euro area – in the UK’s favour.</p><p>For example, the S&P Global Business Outlook Survey (taken in June) found that companies in the UK were more optimistic on the prospects for the next 12 months than those in any other country surveyed (including the US and China). Germany and France were notable laggards.</p><p>This is reflected in the shorter-term activity indicators too. S&P’s monthly PMI surveys for July show that the UK economy started the second quarter on the front foot – notably in manufacturing – whereas the recovery in the euro area is already heading backwards.</p> </div> </div> <div class="html-embed section" data-test="html-embed"> <span></span> <div id="wrp-c9cf7dbf-aaa2-4bc1-ab27-1f45122292db" class="wrp-c9cf7dbf-aaa2-4bc1-ab27-1f45122292db " style=""><iframe id="c9cf7dbf-aaa2-4bc1-ab27-1f45122292db" data-type="particle" src="https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/c9cf7dbf-aaa2-4bc1-ab27-1f45122292db.html?direct=true&id=c9cf7dbf-aaa2-4bc1-ab27-1f45122292db&template=articleRendererHTML" class="tmg-particle illustrator-embed wrp-c9cf7dbf-aaa2-4bc1-ab27-1f45122292db " title="0408 UK economy should continue to outperform" data-business-type="editorial" loading="eager" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allow="web-share" style="width: 100%; min-width: 100%; border: none; position: relative; display: block; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"></iframe><div style="display: none;" class="particle-newsletter-overlay"></div></div><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/c9cf7dbf-aaa2-4bc1-ab27-1f45122292db/css/articleRendererHTML.css"> </div> <div class="articleBodyText section"> <div class="component article-body-text " data-test="article-body-text"> <p>Other surveys reinforce this message, including EU-wide polls conducted for the European Commission, and a wide range of national surveys. In particular, the Ifo Institute has declared that “the German economy is stuck in crisis”.</p><p>The recovery in consumer confidence also looks more robust in the UK, notably on the outlook for personal finances. Sentiment is still subdued by past standards, but at least households expect conditions to keep improving.</p><p>So, what is behind this?</p><p>One important factor is the greater degree of political stability in the UK. This has been a trend for some time, for which Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt deserve more credit than they get.</p><p>But it is true that the Deloitte survey of UK Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) found that corporate risk appetite jumped following the general election, albeit mainly because of the further reduction in uncertainty rather than any great enthusiasm for Labour’s plans.</p><p>Another positive is that the economic fundamentals of the UK are relatively good – with the emphasis on “relatively”. For example, public debt is even higher (compared to national income) in France and especially in Italy. Debt is still much lower in Germany, but this reflects exceptionally tight fiscal rules that are holding back growth.</p> </div> </div> <div class="html-embed section" data-test="html-embed"> <span></span> <div id="wrp-528b38f5-d5ea-442f-8563-c1c340a10c38" class="wrp-528b38f5-d5ea-442f-8563-c1c340a10c38 " style=""><iframe id="528b38f5-d5ea-442f-8563-c1c340a10c38" data-type="particle" src="https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/528b38f5-d5ea-442f-8563-c1c340a10c38.html?direct=true&id=528b38f5-d5ea-442f-8563-c1c340a10c38&template=articleRendererHTML" class="tmg-particle illustrator-embed wrp-528b38f5-d5ea-442f-8563-c1c340a10c38 " title="0408 Corporate risk appetite is rebounding" data-business-type="editorial" loading="eager" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allow="web-share" style="width: 100%; min-width: 100%; border: none; position: relative; display: block; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"></iframe><div style="display: none;" class="particle-newsletter-overlay"></div></div><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/528b38f5-d5ea-442f-8563-c1c340a10c38/css/articleRendererHTML.css"> </div> <div class="articleBodyText section"> <div class="component article-body-text " data-test="article-body-text"> <p>UK unemployment remains relatively low at 4.4pc, compared to 6.5pc in the euro area. At the same time, UK household savings rates are relatively high, providing plenty of ammunition for spending to pick up further. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has estimated that the accumulated stock of excess savings in the wake of the pandemic reached £229bn in the first quarter of 2024.</p><p>The UK is also benefiting from being a services-led economy. This has contributed to the divergences within the euro area too, where Spain is doing much better than Germany as tourism recovers from Covid. In the case of Brexit Britain, strong growth in international trade in business services has helped to offset any underperformance in manufacturing trade. </p><p>Of course, it would be better if both the UK and euro area were doing well. <a class="ck-custom-link" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/05/german-manufacturing-plunges-in-fresh-blow-for-scholz/">The crisis in the German economy</a>, in particular, is no cause for schadenfreude, given its continued importance as a market for UK exporters. Desperate EU politicians are also more likely to resort to desperate measures, including more protectionism.</p> </div> </div> <div class="html-embed section" data-test="html-embed"> <span></span> <div id='wrp-9126b97b-7d72-49a7-825f-e085b8ef267c' class='wrp-9126b97b-7d72-49a7-825f-e085b8ef267c ' style=''><iframe id='9126b97b-7d72-49a7-825f-e085b8ef267c' data-type='particle' src='https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/9126b97b-7d72-49a7-825f-e085b8ef267c.html?direct=true&id=9126b97b-7d72-49a7-825f-e085b8ef267c&template=articleRendererHTML' class='tmg-particle illustrator-embed wrp-9126b97b-7d72-49a7-825f-e085b8ef267c ' title='1106 Eurozone's manufacturing recovery is sluggish' data-business-type='editorial' loading='eager' scrolling='no' frameborder='0' allow='web-share' style='width: 100%; min-width: 100%; border: none; position: relative; display: block; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;'></iframe><div style='display: none;' class='particle-newsletter-overlay'></div></div><link rel='stylesheet' type='text/css' href='https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/9126b97b-7d72-49a7-825f-e085b8ef267c/css/articleRendererHTML.css'> </div> <div class="articleBodyText section"> <div class="component article-body-text " data-test="article-body-text"> <p>But there are some silver linings, too.</p><p>The relatively strong performance of the UK economy and greater political stability is proving a draw for overseas investors. Inward foreign direct investment in greenfield projects (those that create new jobs) has remained strong, despite Brexit-related uncertainty.</p><p>Now, UK financial assets are benefiting from a new-found safe haven status too. This is reversing some of the longer-term underperformance of UK bonds and equities and boosting the pound, making it easier for the Bank of England to keep cutting interest rates.</p><p>Equally, there are several things that could go wrong. Abroad, there are growing concerns about the US and Chinese economy. The UK could not escape a global recession.</p><p>At home, Labour is enjoying a honeymoon period with businesses and investors, thanks in part to hopes that the commanding parliamentary majority will allow far-reaching reforms of planning laws and public services.</p><p>But these hopes have not yet been properly tested, and there is plenty else that Labour might do – notably on energy policy and employment rights – that could turn investors off.</p><p>The approach to tax is an obvious stumbling block. The new Government has already announced that it will take the toughest possible approach to the taxation of non-UK domiciled individuals (non-doms). Mixing my metaphors, this could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and drives away the golden goose.</p><p>Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, is now telling us to expect further cuts in infrastructure spending and large increases in taxes on savings and investment. This is not a good look for a Government that says it intends to prioritise growth – or wants to ensure that the UK economy continues to outperform.</p><hr /><p><em>Julian Jessop (@julianhjessop) is an independent economist</em></p> </div> </div> <div id="recipe-enabled" data-recipe-enabled="true"></div> </div> <div class="u-separator-top--loose u-separator--branded">  <aside id="comment" class="comment" data-comment-config="{"authorMode":false,"articleCommentingConfig":true,"convConfig":{"articleId":"A3CTw369T5LH","viafouraEnvironmentId":"00000000-0000-4000-8000-010fdf3f0a45"}}" data-js="comment" aria-label="Commenting" data-test="join-conversation-section"> <div class="comment__header-container" data-js="comment-header-container" data-test="comment-header-container"> <h2 class="comment__header">Join the conversation</h2>  <div class="comments__social">  <button class="comments__button comment__show-button e-button e-button--large e-button--centered-text" data-js="comment-load" data-label-loading="Loading..." data-test="comment-load" data-event="showComments"> <div class="comment__show-text">Show <span class="e-comment-count__number" data-js="comment-count"> </span> comments <svg class="e-button__icon comment__toggle-icon e-button__icon--right e-button__icon--large" viewBox="0 0 13 7" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path id="Vector 356" d="M1 0.749911L6.49999 6.25L12 0.749912" stroke="white" stroke-width="1.17857" stroke-linejoin="bevel"/> </svg> </div> </button> <div class="comment__policy-container comment__policy-mobile"> <div class="comment__policy" data-test="comment-policy"> The Telegraph values your comments but kindly requests all posts are on topic, constructive and respectful. 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'Brexit Britain' is outperforming Europe – but Labour threatens to ruin it all