Mysteel解读：大跌环境下，看钢厂对废不锈钢的使用趋势-我的钢铁网

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<p>废不锈钢作为不锈钢的主要原料之一，是不锈钢生产中不可缺少的一环，不锈钢冶炼工艺多种多样，其中应用最广泛的是以废不锈钢为原料的短流程工艺和以镍铬合金为原料的一体化工艺。2021年中国废不锈钢产量约800万吨，在不锈钢的原料中占比约为23%，使用废不锈钢为原料时需要采用电炉化钢、然后在AOD精炼炉中添加辅料进行元素调配、再经过连铸或模铸、连轧或锻造等短流程工艺生产不锈钢成品材。</p> <p><strong>一、废不锈钢与镍铁替代性</strong></p> <p><strong>使用比例：短期易降难增，中期动态平衡，长期逐步提升</strong></p> <p>现阶段国内钢厂的原料采购非常灵活。站在钢厂角度，如果短期大幅提高废不锈钢使用量，势必造成高镍铁与废不锈钢比价下行，使用废不锈钢的经济性再度减弱，而且部分钢厂镍铁主要来源是长协，废不锈钢以不定期招标采购为主，原料稳定性方面显然镍铁更优。站在贸易商角度，短期大幅提高废不锈钢收购量也不太可能，面临囤货风险、资金、上游供货等诸多限制；长期来看废不锈钢比例提高是常态化趋势，中期更多是一种动态平衡；考虑近期印尼镍铁回流，镍铁价格降低，钢厂近期成品订单减少，原料需求下降，镍铁、废<a href='https://www.mybxg.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢价格</a>大幅下调，废不锈钢资源偏紧，采购难度增加，预计三季度国内不锈钢厂废料使用比例易降难增。</p> <p><strong>供给变化：保需求增长无虞，释放潜力巨大</strong></p> <p>据调研了解，现阶段国内300系废不锈钢流转量约36万吨/月（不包括钢厂自己回收部分），未来<a href='https://guangxi.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>广西</a>鹏达、桂鑫、<a href='https://jiangsu.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>江苏</a>德龙、太钢等钢厂需求释放，再增加5-10万吨/月，不存在很突出的障碍。核心逻辑是废不锈钢进口困难，国内资源偏紧，而需求增加，未来价格有望重回高位。</p> <p><strong>政策影响：发票可以解决，环保影响有限</strong></p> <p>自2022年3月税改新政实施以来，废旧行业发票问题得到有效解决，短期内发票问题并不会成为废不锈钢供给瓶颈，但是未来存在一定政策变动的风险。除此之外，环保趋严对废不锈钢回收影响有限，但如果其他地区也效仿戴南、阳江查禁中频炉，废不锈钢供给短期将更加宽松。</p> <p><strong>二、现阶段不锈钢企业对废不锈钢的使用情况</strong></p> <p>受冶炼工艺的限制，不锈钢企业想要使用废不锈钢必须装备有电炉、aod炉等设备，钢厂想在废<a href='https://www.mybxg.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢采购</a>中占据有利地位会采取各种各样的方法，比如成立再生资源公司，寻找大型基地作为代理、或在货源地成立回收基地直接参与回收，当然让利、财税补贴也是比较普遍的方式。企业使用废不锈钢的能力主要受自身的产量、设备以及采购能力的影响，不同企业对不锈钢的使用上存在着较大的差距。</p> <p><strong>2.1分区域</strong></p> <p>据<a href='https://www.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>统计2022年上半年中国废不锈钢使用量约439.6万吨，分区域来看CR7为433.4万吨，占比达98.5%。其中<a href='https://fujian.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>福建</a>地区占比24.3%；广西地区占比23.6%，<a href='https://guangdong.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>广东</a>地区占比14.1%，<a href='https://zhejiang.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>浙江</a>地区占比12.8%，江苏地区占比11.4%，<a href='https://henan.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>河南</a>地区占比6.1%，<a href='https://shandong.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>山东</a>地区占比4.3%，山西地区占比2.3%，其他省份占比1.2%。福建某钢厂具备产能、设备、采购优势等三方优势，长期以来采购量高居全国第一，近年来广西地区设备升级、电炉产能提升，该地区废不锈钢需求大幅增加，和福建形成并驾齐驱的趋势，未来随着新增设备的投产，该地区有望成为全国最大的废不锈钢消耗地。</p> <p><img style="width: 473px; height: 291px;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/mybxg/2022/07/06/165545.png" alt="" /></p> <p><strong>2.2分钢厂</strong></p> <p>据Mysteel统计2022年上半年中国废不锈钢使用量约439.6万吨，分企业来看CR10为352.7万吨，占比达80.2%。其中qs系占比达38.9%，成为中国最大的废不锈钢采购企业，剩下8家钢厂年采购量相近，均突破40万吨，是中国主要的废不锈钢采购企业。</p> <p><img style="width: 371px; height: 439px;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/mybxg/2022/07/06/182935.png" alt="" /></p> <p><strong>2.3分系别</strong></p> <p><strong>200系</strong></p> <p>据Mysteel统计2022年5月国内11家钢厂200系废不锈钢使用量为22.11万吨，环比减少1.8%，200系废料使用占比为23.7%，镍元素占比为22.4%，环比减少4.9%。5月新增样本三家，其中两家200系不锈钢产量较大，且炼钢工艺主要为电炉工艺，废不锈钢使用比例较大，5月国内14家钢厂200系废不锈钢使用量为29.31万吨，使用占比为29.1%，镍元素占比为27.5%。</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 395px;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/mybxg/2022/07/06/170344.png" alt="" /></p> <p><strong>300系</strong></p> <p>据Mysteel统计2022年5月国内21家钢厂300系废不锈钢使用量为36.47万吨，环比增加6.5%，300系废料使用占比为27.1%，镍元素占比为26%，环比增加8.7%；5月使用占比增加主要因山西某钢厂增加废不锈钢使用量，切疫情导致部分钢厂减产。5月新增样本8个，主要为炼钢工艺为电炉炼钢，废不锈钢使用量较大，5月国内29家钢厂废不锈钢使用量为43.4万吨，300系废不锈钢使用占比为30.4%，镍元素占比为29.2%。</p> <p>注：该数据样本与不锈钢粗钢产量样本一致，21家样本对应不锈钢粗钢33家样本，29家样本对应不锈钢粗钢40家样本。</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 390px;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/mybxg/2022/07/06/170446.png" alt="" /></p> <p><strong>三、总结</strong></p> <p>1、长期来看，不锈钢报废周期来临，废不锈钢进口窗口开放，国内资源紧缺局面得到缓解，加上国内电炉产能的投产，未来不锈钢企业的废不锈钢使用占比将逐步提升；</p> <p>2、中期使用比例的变化更多取决于高镍铁与废不锈钢的经济性对比，钢厂可以根据二者的炼钢工艺成本进行动态选择；</p> <p>3、短期来看，印尼镍铁回流，而国内废不锈钢价格跌幅较大，部分贸易商持货成本高，亏损额度较大，出货意愿低，造成市场资源偏紧，短期钢厂采购难度大，使用比例有降低预期。从供需平衡表角度，废不锈钢使用比例的变化将促进镍资源由短缺或者过剩，对<a href='https://nie.mybxg.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍价</a>构成多空逻辑。</p> <p><strong>风险提示：</strong>印尼镍资源回流，不锈钢企业减产，废不锈钢贸易商持货浮亏。</p> <p> </p><br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：罗强 021-26093811 </br> 资讯监督：王崇锋 021-26094273 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-3714-------------1.html">相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-3714-------------1.html" class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> <ul> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"><a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/22/1024/17/D3D2B6DB389E6CF3_abc.html" external> 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