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Trading myths: Addressing misconceptions about trade, jobs, and competitiveness | McKinsey
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We found that reality is often at odds with conventional wisdom." name="twitter:description"/><meta content="Article" property="contenttype" name="contenttype"/><meta content="https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/six%20myths%20about%20trade/trmy12_frth.jpg?mw=677&car=42:25" name="twitter:image"/><meta content="Trading myths: Addressing misconceptions about trade, jobs, and competitiveness" name="twitter:image:alt"/><meta content="public" name="accesslevel"/><meta content="false" name="excludefromclientlink"/><meta content="MGI Research" name="articlesource"/><meta content="report" name="articletype"/><meta content="Charles Roxburgh | James Manyika | Richard Dobbs | Jan Mischke" name="authors-name"/><meta content="2012-05-01T00:00:00Z" name="itemdate"/><meta content="Featured Insights | Employment And Growth | Report | McKinsey Global Institute | May 1, 2012" name="searchresults-tags"/><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"Article","url":"https://www.mckinsey.com","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"McKinsey & Company","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/Thumbnails/Mck_Logo"}},"mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/six-myths-about-trade"},"datePublished":"2012-05-01T00:00:00Z","dateCreated":"2011-09-12T16:19:00Z","dateModified":"2012-05-01T00:00:00Z","heading":"Trading myths: Addressing misconceptions about trade, jobs, and competitiveness","image":"https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/six%20myths%20about%20trade/trmy12_frth.jpg","description":"MGI analyzes the performance of mature economies’ tradable sectors. 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mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Charles Roxburgh<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/james-manyika" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">James Manyika</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Richard Dobbs<span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/jan-mischke" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Jan Mischke</span></a></span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">MGI analyzes the performance of mature economies’ tradable sectors. We found that reality is often at odds with conventional wisdom.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/~/media/mckinsey/featured insights/employment and growth/six myths about trade/mgi trading myths_es_may 2012.pdf" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924" target="_blank" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="mgi-trading-myths_es_may-2012" data-layer-report-name="mgi-trading-myths_es_may-2012>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924"> (PDF-4 MB)</span></a><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/~/media/mckinsey/featured insights/employment and growth/six myths about trade/mgi trading myths_full_report_may 2012.pdf" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924" target="_blank" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="mgi-trading-myths_full_report_may-2012" data-layer-report-name="mgi-trading-myths_full_report_may-2012>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924"> (PDF-6 MB)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p>To revive anemic growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, policy makers in many mature economies are working to increase investment and net exports, hoping to sustain growth and employment at a time when domestic consumption looks to remain weak. They are focusing on manufacturing in particular, amid a perception that these countries are losing ground to emerging markets. But efforts to stimulate manufacturing and exports may raise the risk of protectionism.</p> <p>It’s important for the debate on trade and its impact to be rooted in facts. With this point in mind, a report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)—<em>Trading myths: Addressing misconceptions about trade, jobs, and competitiveness</em>—analyzes the performance of the mature economies’ tradable sectors. We found that reality is often at odds with conventional wisdom. For example:</p> <p><span class="mck_h3_sm">Myth:</span> Mature economies are losing out to emerging markets in trade and thus face increasing trade deficits.</p> <p><span class="mck_h3_sm">Reality:</span> The trade balance of mature economies has remained largely stable in the aggregate and even begun to improve. There are wide variations between individual countries, but no evidence supports claims of a wholesale deterioration of the trade balance between the mature and emerging economies over the past decade.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_ ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow--divider__F0FY_ mdc-u-ts-10"><span>Exhibit 1</span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924 mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924"><div>Average net exports of mature economies remained relatively stable over the past decade, though individual countries showed significant variations. </div></h5></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/six%20myths%20about%20trade/svg_mgi%20trade%20teaser%20ex1%20v3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="six myths about trade" src="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/six%20myths%20about%20trade/svg_mgi%20trade%20teaser%20ex1%20v3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p><span class="mck_h3_sm">Myth:</span> Manufactured goods drive deteriorating trade deficits.</p> <p><span class="mck_h3_sm">Reality:</span> Imports of primary resources, whose prices have been rising sharply, are the largest negative contributor to the trade balance of mature economies. In 2008, mature economies ran a 3.3 percent of GDP trade deficit in primary resources but a 0.5 percent of GDP surplus in manufactured goods and specifically a 1.6 percent surplus in knowledge-intensive manufacturing. Some individual mature countries run trade deficits in knowledge-intensive manufacturing.</p> <p><span class="mck_h3_sm">Myth:</span> Trade is at the heart of the loss of manufacturing jobs.</p> <p><span class="mck_h3_sm">Reality:</span> Changes in the composition of demand and ongoing productivity increases are the main reasons for the decline in the number of such jobs in mature economies. The share of manufacturing in these countries’ total employment is bound to decline further, from 12 percent today to less than 10 percent in 2030, according to our analysis. MGI finds that trade or offshoring are responsible for the loss of around 20 percent of the 5.8 million US manufacturing jobs eliminated between 2000 and 2010.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_ ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow--divider__F0FY_ mdc-u-ts-10"><span>Exhibit 2</span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924 mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924"><div>Over the last 15 years, many mature economies have experienced trade deficits in primary resources that have canceled out trade surpluses from knowledge-intensive goods and services. </div></h5></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/six%20myths%20about%20trade/svg_mgi%20trade%20teaser%20ex2%20v5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="six myths about trade" src="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/six%20myths%20about%20trade/svg_mgi%20trade%20teaser%20ex2%20v5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>The MGI report aims to debunk these and other widespread misconceptions about how manufacturing and service jobs are created. Our work has important implications for policy makers and companies as they contemplate opportunities for growth in emerging markets and the risks of protectionism. Recommendations include:</p> <ul class="bullListSep"> <li>Pushing vigorously for the fuller liberalization of trade in services, where restrictions remain high. </li> <li>Gearing trade-related policy toward supporting—and benefiting from—comparative advantage in attractive stages of global value chains, and avoiding any emphasis on sustaining or creating direct employment through manufacturing exports. </li> <li>Supporting continued investment in education, infrastructure, and innovation to sustain comparative advantage and to continue creating high-value jobs. </li> </ul></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div></main></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="StandalonePromo" class="RelatedArticle_mck-c-article-related__GGA76 mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="related-articles"><div class="mdc-o-container__wrapper is-wrapped mdc-u-spaced-mobile"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-u-align-center">Related Articles</h5><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-3 RelatedArticle_items-container__s2uD0"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/featured-insights/asia-pacific/australia-productivity-imperative" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-beyon-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="bebo12_frth" class="picture-uniqueKey-beyon-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/asia%20pacific/australia%20productivity%20imperative/bebo12_frth.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924 Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Report - 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We found that reality is often at odds with conventional wisdom."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2012-05-01T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[DownloadsSidebar]] \u003cp\u003eTo revive anemic growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, policy makers in many mature economies are working to increase investment and net exports, hoping to sustain growth and employment at a time when domestic consumption looks to remain weak. They are focusing on manufacturing in particular, amid a perception that these countries are losing ground to emerging markets. But efforts to stimulate manufacturing and exports may raise the risk of protectionism.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt\u0026rsquo;s important for the debate on trade and its impact to be rooted in facts. With this point in mind, a\u0026nbsp;report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)\u0026mdash;\u003cem\u003eTrading myths: Addressing misconceptions about trade, jobs, and competitiveness\u003c/em\u003e\u0026mdash;analyzes the performance of the mature economies\u0026rsquo; tradable sectors. We found that reality is often at odds with conventional wisdom. For example:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003eMyth:\u003c/span\u003e Mature economies are losing out to emerging markets in trade and thus face increasing trade deficits.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003eReality:\u003c/span\u003e The trade balance of mature economies has remained largely stable in the aggregate and even begun to improve. There are wide variations between individual countries, but no evidence supports claims of a wholesale deterioration of the trade balance between the mature and emerging economies over the past decade.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 1]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003eMyth:\u003c/span\u003e Manufactured goods drive deteriorating trade deficits.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003eReality:\u003c/span\u003e Imports of primary resources, whose prices have been rising sharply, are the largest negative contributor to the trade balance of mature economies. In 2008, mature economies ran a 3.3 percent of GDP trade deficit in primary resources but a 0.5 percent of GDP surplus in manufactured goods and specifically a 1.6 percent surplus in knowledge-intensive manufacturing. 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Our work has important implications for policy makers and companies as they contemplate opportunities for growth in emerging markets and the risks of protectionism. Recommendations include:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul class=\"bullListSep\"\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ePushing vigorously for the fuller liberalization of trade in services, where restrictions remain high. \u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eGearing trade-related policy toward supporting\u0026mdash;and benefiting from\u0026mdash;comparative advantage in attractive stages of global value chains, and avoiding any emphasis on sustaining or creating direct employment through manufacturing exports. \u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSupporting continued investment in education, infrastructure, and innovation to sustain comparative advantage and to continue creating high-value jobs. 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Building a more balanced and resilient economy that can withstand a potential slowdown depends on getting back to the basics of productivity growth."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/featured insights/asia pacific/australia productivity imperative/bebo12_frth.jpg","alt":"bebo12_frth"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":{"name":"MGI Research"}},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"French employment 2020: Five priorities for action"},"url":{"path":"/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/french-employment-2020"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Report"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Report"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Unemployment is rising. 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