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</a> </h2> <div class="postedauthor"> By <a href="http://tangotiger.com/index.php/member/1">Tangotiger</a> </div> <p>A walk is as good as a hit, is essentially a true statement when the bases are empty.  Which has been true for most of baseball history (with the exception being the e<strong>x</strong>tra <strong>i</strong>nning <strong>p</strong>laced <strong>r</strong>unner, the XIPR).</p> <p>In a Markov chain, the presumption is how you entered a state is immaterial.  Being in a state is the information you need in order to know what's to come.  So, if you have a runner on 1B with 0 outs, does it matter HOW you got there?  If it doesn't, then that's your Markov state: runner on 1B, 0 outs.  If it DOES matter, then your Markov state has to include how you go there, so that your actual Markov state is 1B-or-BB-or-HBP-or-Err, and the runner on 1B and 0 outs.</p> <p>In an award-winning presentation <a href="https://sabr.org/latest/sabr-52-david-w-smith-bailey-hall-win-2024-convention-presentation-awards/" target="_blank">at SABR52</a>, Bailey Hall tackled that issue.  The main overall point is that the number of runs that followed the runner on 1B, 0 outs state was essentially the same, regardless as to how the state was entered (0.94 to 0.93 runs following a leadoff BB or single respectively).  But, Bailey did note that there may be a pitcher-by-pitcher effect, that maybe some pitchers are more affected by one or the other, and maybe even at the inning-level.</p> <p>Most important to all this is that the question was asked, a solution has been offered, and the presentation is beyond outstanding (with pure baseball themes wherever you look).  This is what an #AspiringSaberist should do: ask the question, roll up their sleeves, and show off the work.  Because others will be watching, and they will remember any good work.</p> <p>(click to embiggen)</p> <figure><a href="https://sabr.box.com/shared/static/dlc8uxdid8egh1flptd9d83d4xi57mg8.png"><img src="https://sabr.box.com/shared/static/dlc8uxdid8egh1flptd9d83d4xi57mg8.png" width="440" data-image="dtwhoi7clomr"></a></figure> <hr/> <div class="posted"> (6) <a href="http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/leadoff-walk-v-single#comments"> Comments </a> • 2024/08/17 • <a href="http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/category/playing-approach"> Playing_Approach </a> </div> </div> <p> <a href="http://tangotiger.com/index.php"> << Back to main </a> </p> </div> <div class="sidebar"> </div> </div> <br class="spacer" /> <div class="footer"> </div> </div> </body> </html>