NHESSD - Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors

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href="https://cdn.copernicus.org/libraries/jquery/1.11.1/ui/jquery-ui-slider-pips.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://cdn.copernicus.org/libraries/photoswipe/4.1/photoswipe.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://cdn.copernicus.org/apps/htmlgenerator/css/htmlgenerator.css?v=1"> <meta name="citation_fulltext_world_readable" content=""> <meta name="citation_publisher" content="Copernicus GmbH"/> <meta name="citation_title" content="Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors"/> <meta name="citation_abstract" content="<p><strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> A small, isolated portion of the Marmolada glacier partially broke off on July 3, 2022. The detached ice mass had an estimated volume of 70,400 m<sup>3</sup> and slid down the slope killing 11 mountaineers after having travelled for approximately 2.3 km along the northern slope. This event is considered among the deadliest ice avalanches historically recorded in the Alps. The cause of the collapse is most likely to be closely related to anomalously high air temperatures in late spring and early summer of that year and also to progressive warming of basal ice layers and subglacial permafrost. Increased melting resulted in significant amounts of water that could not be discharged but remained trapped in crevasses of the isolated, cold ice body. The usually high permeability of karst systems in limestone are likely to have been blocked by subglacial and surrounding permafrost rocks, thereby increasing basal water pressure. Morpho-climatic data, satellite and aerial images and geophysics were analysed to better understand role and interaction of the controlling factors. This enabled the implementation of a conceptual model that was further investigated through numerical simulations using the Limit Equilibrium Method. The outcome from the back-analysis indicates that a combination of driving forces was required to finally trigger the collapse. The seasonal alternation of prolonged heating and refreezing meltwater of subglacial permafrost (i.e. the active layer) could have caused the plasticization of the basal ice resulting in the presence of a &ldquo;weak bottom layer&rdquo; where the available shear strength progressively dropped, finally triggering the failure.</p>"/> <meta name="citation_publication_date" content="2024/11/19"/> <meta name="citation_online_date" content="2024/11/19"/> <meta name="citation_journal_title" content="Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions"/> <meta name="citation_doi" content="https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212"/> <meta name="citation_firstpage" content="1"/> <meta name="citation_lastpage" content="41"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Francese, Roberto Giovanni"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma, Parma, 43124, Italy"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Sgonico, 34010, Italy"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Valentino, Roberto"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma, Parma, 43124, Italy"/> <meta name="citation_author_orcid" content="0000-0002-2331-5545"> <meta name="citation_author" content="Haeberli, Wilfried"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Bondesan, Aldino"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Historical and Geographic Sciences and the Ancient World, University of Padova, Padova, 35122, Italy"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Military Geography, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, 7602, South Africa"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Giorgi, Massimo"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Sgonico, 34010, Italy"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Picotti, Stefano"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Sgonico, 34010, Italy"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Pettenati, Franco"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Sgonico, 34010, Italy"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Sandron, Denis"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Sgonico, 34010, Italy"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Ramponi, Gianni"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Trieste, 34127, Italy"/> <meta name="citation_author_orcid" content="0000-0002-4494-3743"> <meta name="citation_author" content="Valt, Mauro"/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Environmental Protection Agency of Veneto, Centro Valanghe di Arabba, Arabba, 32020, Italy"/> <meta name="citation_author_orcid" content="0000-0002-4742-7103"> <meta name="citation_funding_source" content="citation_funder=Università degli Studi di Parma;citation_funder_id=501100004770;citation_grant_number=FFABR_2017_MIUR_FRANCESE"> <meta name="citation_funding_source" content="citation_funder=Università degli Studi di Parma;citation_funder_id=501100004770;citation_grant_number=FIL_2019_FRANCESE"> <meta name="citation_funding_source" content="citation_funder=Università degli Studi di Padova;citation_funder_id=501100003500;citation_grant_number=DOR_2015-2019_BONDESAN"> <meta name="citation_funding_source" content="citation_funder=Università degli Studi di Padova;citation_funder_id=501100003500;citation_grant_number=PRAT_2013_BONDESAN"> <meta name="citation_pdf_url" content="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2024-212/nhess-2024-212.pdf"/> <meta name="citation_xml_url" content="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2024-212/nhess-2024-212.xml"/> <meta name="fulltext_pdf" content="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2024-212/nhess-2024-212.pdf"/> <meta name="citation_language" content="English"/> <meta name="libraryUrl" content="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/"/> <meta property="og:image" content="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/NHESS_Graphic_preprints_twitter_avatar_600x335px.png"/> <meta property="og:title" content="Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors"> <meta property="og:description" content="Abstract. A small, isolated portion of the Marmolada glacier partially broke off on July 3, 2022. The detached ice mass had an estimated volume of 70,400 m3 and slid down the slope killing 11 mountaineers after having travelled for approximately 2.3 km along the northern slope. This event is considered among the deadliest ice avalanches historically recorded in the Alps. The cause of the collapse is most likely to be closely related to anomalously high air temperatures in late spring and early summer of that year and also to progressive warming of basal ice layers and subglacial permafrost. Increased melting resulted in significant amounts of water that could not be discharged but remained trapped in crevasses of the isolated, cold ice body. The usually high permeability of karst systems in limestone are likely to have been blocked by subglacial and surrounding permafrost rocks, thereby increasing basal water pressure. Morpho-climatic data, satellite and aerial images and geophysics were analysed to better understand role and interaction of the controlling factors. This enabled the implementation of a conceptual model that was further investigated through numerical simulations using the Limit Equilibrium Method. The outcome from the back-analysis indicates that a combination of driving forces was required to finally trigger the collapse. The seasonal alternation of prolonged heating and refreezing meltwater of subglacial permafrost (i.e. the active layer) could have caused the plasticization of the basal ice resulting in the presence of a “weak bottom layer” where the available shear strength progressively dropped, finally triggering the failure."> <meta property="og:url" content="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2024-212/"> <meta property="twitter:image" content="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/NHESS_Graphic_preprints_twitter_avatar_600x335px.png"/> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"> <meta name="twitter:title" content="Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors"> <meta name="twitter:description" content="Abstract. A small, isolated portion of the Marmolada glacier partially broke off on July 3, 2022. The detached ice mass had an estimated volume of 70,400 m3 and slid down the slope killing 11 mountaineers after having travelled for approximately 2.3 km along the northern slope. This event is considered among the deadliest ice avalanches historically recorded in the Alps. The cause of the collapse is most likely to be closely related to anomalously high air temperatures in late spring and early summer of that year and also to progressive warming of basal ice layers and subglacial permafrost. Increased melting resulted in significant amounts of water that could not be discharged but remained trapped in crevasses of the isolated, cold ice body. The usually high permeability of karst systems in limestone are likely to have been blocked by subglacial and surrounding permafrost rocks, thereby increasing basal water pressure. Morpho-climatic data, satellite and aerial images and geophysics were analysed to better understand role and interaction of the controlling factors. This enabled the implementation of a conceptual model that was further investigated through numerical simulations using the Limit Equilibrium Method. The outcome from the back-analysis indicates that a combination of driving forces was required to finally trigger the collapse. The seasonal alternation of prolonged heating and refreezing meltwater of subglacial permafrost (i.e. the active layer) could have caused the plasticization of the basal ice resulting in the presence of a “weak bottom layer” where the available shear strength progressively dropped, finally triggering the failure."> <link rel="icon" href="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon"/> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.copernicus.org/libraries/jquery/1.11.1/ui/jquery-ui.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.copernicus.org/libraries/jquery/1.11.1/ui/jquery-ui-slider-pips.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.copernicus.org/libraries/jquery/1.11.1/ui/template_jquery-ui-touch.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.copernicus.org/js/respond.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" 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This work is distributed under <br class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet" />the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</div> </div> </div> <div class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet"> <div class="citation-header"> <div class="citation-doi">https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212</div> <div class="citation-copyright">© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under <br class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet" />the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-55 hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile"> <div class="text-right articleBackLink"> <a href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/preprints.html">Preprints</a> </div> <div class="tab co-angel-left hide-on-desktop"></div> <div class="tab co-angel-right hide-on-desktop"></div> <div class="mobile-citation"> <ul class="tab-navigation no-styling"> <li class="tab1.articlf active"><nobr><a href="#">Abstract</a></nobr></li><li class="tab3.discussioo"><nobr><a href="#">Discussion</a></nobr></li><li class="tab450.metrict"><nobr><a href="#">Metrics</a></nobr></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="ms-type row no-gutters d-none d-lg-flex mb-1 mt-0 align-items-center"> <div class="col"> <div class="row no-gutters align-items-center"> <div class="col-auto"> </div> <div class="col"> <a target="_blank" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" rel="license" class="licence-icon-svg"><img src="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/licenceSVG_16.svg"></a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-auto text-right">19 Nov 2024</div> </div> <div class="ms-type row no-gutters d-lg-none mb-1 align-items-center"> <div class="col-12"> <a target="_blank" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" rel="license" class="licence-icon-svg "><img src="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/licenceSVG_16.svg"></a> | <span>19 Nov 2024</span> </div> </div> <div class="co-notification"> <strong>Status</strong>: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS. </div> <h1>Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors </h1> <div class="tab-content abstract"> <div class="mb-3 authors-with-affiliations"> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910534">Roberto Giovanni Francese</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910535">Roberto Valentino</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910536">Wilfried Haeberli</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910537">Aldino Bondesan<a href="mailto:aldino.bondesan@unipd.it"><i class="fal fa-envelope ml-1"></i></a></span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910538">Massimo Giorgi</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910539">Stefano Picotti</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910540">Franco Pettenati</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910541">Denis Sandron</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910542">Gianni Ramponi</span>,</nobr> <nobr>and <span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910543">Mauro Valt</span></nobr> </div> <div class="abstract"> <p><strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> A small, isolated portion of the Marmolada glacier partially broke off on July 3, 2022. The detached ice mass had an estimated volume of 70,400 m<sup>3</sup> and slid down the slope killing 11 mountaineers after having travelled for approximately 2.3 km along the northern slope. This event is considered among the deadliest ice avalanches historically recorded in the Alps. The cause of the collapse is most likely to be closely related to anomalously high air temperatures in late spring and early summer of that year and also to progressive warming of basal ice layers and subglacial permafrost. Increased melting resulted in significant amounts of water that could not be discharged but remained trapped in crevasses of the isolated, cold ice body. The usually high permeability of karst systems in limestone are likely to have been blocked by subglacial and surrounding permafrost rocks, thereby increasing basal water pressure. Morpho-climatic data, satellite and aerial images and geophysics were analysed to better understand role and interaction of the controlling factors. This enabled the implementation of a conceptual model that was further investigated through numerical simulations using the Limit Equilibrium Method. The outcome from the back-analysis indicates that a combination of driving forces was required to finally trigger the collapse. The seasonal alternation of prolonged heating and refreezing meltwater of subglacial permafrost (i.e. the active layer) could have caused the plasticization of the basal ice resulting in the presence of a “weak bottom layer” where the available shear strength progressively dropped, finally triggering the failure.</p> </div> <div class="citation-footer"> <strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">How to cite. </strong> Francese, R. G., Valentino, R., Haeberli, W., Bondesan, A., Giorgi, M., Picotti, S., Pettenati, F., Sandron, D., Ramponi, G., and Valt, M.: Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212, in review, 2024. </div> <div id="article-dates" class="sec"> <div class="article-dates dates-content my-3 pb-3"> <nobr>Received: 12 Nov 2024</nobr> – <nobr>Discussion started: 19 Nov 2024</nobr> </div> </div> <div class="co-notification mt-n3"> <strong>Publisher's note</strong>: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. 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class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910536">Wilfried Haeberli</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910537">Aldino Bondesan<a href="mailto:aldino.bondesan@unipd.it"><i class="fal fa-envelope ml-1"></i></a></span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910538">Massimo Giorgi</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910539">Stefano Picotti</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910540">Franco Pettenati</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910541">Denis Sandron</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910542">Gianni Ramponi</span>,</nobr> <nobr>and <span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910543">Mauro Valt</span></nobr> </div> <div class="assets-group"> <div> <h2 class="assets-group-name">Supplement</h2> </div> <p> <a class="asset-link" target="_blank" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212-supplement">https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212-supplement</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="tab-content hide-js metrics"> <div class="mb-3 authors-with-affiliations"> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910534">Roberto Giovanni Francese</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910535">Roberto Valentino</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910536">Wilfried Haeberli</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910537">Aldino Bondesan<a href="mailto:aldino.bondesan@unipd.it"><i class="fal fa-envelope ml-1"></i></a></span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910538">Massimo Giorgi</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910539">Stefano Picotti</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author910540">Franco Pettenati</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer 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transform:{scale:[.036003600360036005,.016927109510951093],translate:[-180,-85.609038]}}; </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.copernicus.org/libraries/d3/v3/d3.v3.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.copernicus.org/libraries/d3/v3/topojson.v1.min.js"></script> <div><h2>Viewed (geographical distribution)</h2></div> <div class="metrics-border"> <div class="grid-container"> <div class="grid-60 grid-parent"> <div class="metrics-viewed-geography complete" style="display: block"> <strong class="metrics-headline">Total article views: 115</strong> (including HTML, PDF, and XML) <strong class="metrics-headline normal">Thereof 115 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin. </strong> </div> </div> <div class="grid-40 grid-parent"> <div class="map-complete top-countries metrics-viewed-geography complete" style="display: block"> <table> <thead> <tr> <th class="country">Country</th> <th>#</th> <th> <span class="hide-on-mobile ">Views</span><i 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= setTimeout(resizeDraw,500); }; $(document).on('click','.viewedGeographySwitch label',function(){ clearTimeout(timeout); timeout = setTimeout(resizeDraw,500); }); }); </script> <div class="metrics-latest-update">Latest update: 23 Nov 2024</div> </div> </div> <div class="modal fade author910534" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-dialog-centered modal-dialog-scrollable"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <h3 class="modal-title">Roberto Giovanni Francese</h3> </div> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"> <span aria-hidden="true">×</span> </button> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12 mb-3"> Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma, Parma, 43124, Italy </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12 mb-3"> National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Sgonico, 34010, Italy </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="modal fade author910535" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-dialog-centered modal-dialog-scrollable"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <h3 class="modal-title">Roberto Valentino</h3> <div class="row no-gutters"> <div class="col-12"> <a class="orcid-authors-logo" target="_blank" href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2331-5545" data-title="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2331-5545"><svg class="mr-2" version="1.1" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><image xlink:href="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/orcid_icon.svg" src="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/orcid_icon_128x128.png" width="100%" height="100%"></image></svg>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2331-5545</a> </div> </div> </div> <button type="button" class="close" 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</div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="modal fade author910538" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-dialog-centered modal-dialog-scrollable"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <h3 class="modal-title">Massimo Giorgi</h3> </div> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"> <span aria-hidden="true">×</span> </button> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12 mb-3"> National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Sgonico, 34010, Italy </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="modal fade author910539" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-dialog-centered modal-dialog-scrollable"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <h3 class="modal-title">Stefano Picotti</h3> </div> <button 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</div> </div> <div class="modal fade author910541" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-dialog-centered modal-dialog-scrollable"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <h3 class="modal-title">Denis Sandron</h3> </div> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"> <span aria-hidden="true">×</span> </button> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12 mb-3"> National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Sgonico, 34010, Italy </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="modal fade author910542" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-dialog-centered modal-dialog-scrollable"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <h3 class="modal-title">Gianni Ramponi</h3> <div class="row no-gutters"> <div class="col-12"> <a 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Environmental Protection Agency of Veneto, Centro Valanghe di Arabba, Arabba, 32020, Italy </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div>  <div class="pswp" tabindex="-1" role="dialog" aria-hidden="true" >  <div class="pswp__bg"></div>  <div class="pswp__scroll-wrap">  <div class="pswp__container"> <div class="pswp__item"></div> <div class="pswp__item"></div> <div class="pswp__item"></div> </div>  <div class="pswp__ui pswp__ui--hidden"> <div class="pswp__top-bar">  <div class="pswp__counter"></div> <button class="pswp__button pswp__button--close" title="Close (Esc)"></button> <button class="pswp__button pswp__button--fs" title="Toggle fullscreen"></button>   <div class="pswp__preloader"> <div class="pswp__preloader__icn"> <div class="pswp__preloader__cut"> <div class="pswp__preloader__donut"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="pswp__share-modal pswp__share-modal--hidden pswp__single-tap"> <div class="pswp__share-tooltip"></div> </div> <button class="pswp__button 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href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2024-212/nhess-2024-212-supplement.pdf">Supplement</a> <nobr>(2288 KB)</nobr> </li> <li><a class="triangle" href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2024-212/nhess-2024-212.bib">BibTeX</a></li> <li><a class="triangle" href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2024-212/nhess-2024-212.ris">EndNote</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content hide-js shortSummaryFull">The deadly collapse of the Marmolada Glacier in Italy in July 2022, is part of a global trend of rapid glacial retreat due to climate change. The event was influenced by permafrost degradation and abnormal warming. Historical data, geophysical surveys, and numerical simulations were used to analyze the collapse. Ice fracturing, water infiltration, and basal lubrication were key contributors. Predicting glacier instability is rather complex but monitoring is vital to cope with the hazard.</div> <div style="display: none" class="content show-js shortSummaryShorten">The deadly collapse of the Marmolada Glacier in Italy in July 2022, is part of a global trend of...</div> <div class="content"> <a href="#" class="more-less show-js triangle" data-hide=".shortSummaryFull" data-show=".shortSummaryShorten" data-toggleCaption='Hide'>Read more</a> </div> </div> <div class="widget dark-border hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet p-0" id="share"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Share</div> <div class="row p-0"> <div class="col-auto pl-0"> <a class="share-one-line" href="https://www.mendeley.com/import/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fnhess.copernicus.org%2Fpreprints%2Fnhess-2024-212%2F" title="Mendeley" target="_blank"> <img src="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/mendeley.png" alt="Mendeley"/> </a> </div> <div class="col-auto"> <a class="share-one-line" href="https://www.reddit.com/submit?url=https%3A%2F%2Fnhess.copernicus.org%2Fpreprints%2Fnhess-2024-212%2F" title="Reddit" target="_blank"> <img src="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/reddit.png" alt="Reddit"> </a> </div> <div class="col-auto"> <a class="share-one-line last" href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Failure+of+Marmolada+Glacier+%28Dolomites%2C+Italy%29+in+2022%3A+Data-based+back+analysis+of+possible+collapse+mechanisms+as+related+to+recent+morpho-climatic+evolution+and+possible+trigger+factors https%3A%2F%2Fnhess.copernicus.org%2Fpreprints%2Fnhess-2024-212%2F" title="Twitter" target="_blank"> <img src="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/twitter.png" alt="Twitter"/> </a> </div> <div class="col-auto"> <a class="share-one-line" href="https://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fnhess.copernicus.org%2Fpreprints%2Fnhess-2024-212%2F&t=Failure+of+Marmolada+Glacier+%28Dolomites%2C+Italy%29+in+2022%3A+Data-based+back+analysis+of+possible+collapse+mechanisms+as+related+to+recent+morpho-climatic+evolution+and+possible+trigger+factors" title="Facebook" target="_blank"> <img src="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/facebook.png" alt="Facebook"/> </a> </div> <div class="col-auto pr-0"> <a class="share-one-line last" href="https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnhess.copernicus.org%2Fpreprints%2Fnhess-2024-212%2F&title=Failure+of+Marmolada+Glacier+%28Dolomites%2C+Italy%29+in+2022%3A+Data-based+back+analysis+of+possible+collapse+mechanisms+as+related+to+recent+morpho-climatic+evolution+and+possible+trigger+factors" title="LinkedIn" target="_blank"> <img src="https://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/linkedin.png" alt="LinkedIn"> </a> </div> <div class="col pr-0 mobile-native-share"> <a href="#" data-title="Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions" data-text="*Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors* Roberto Giovanni Francese et al." data-url="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2024-212/" class="mobile-native-share share-one-line last"><i class="co-mobile-share display-none"></i></a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Altmetrics</div> <div class="content text-center"> <div class="altmetric-embed" data-link-target="_blank" data-hide-less-than="1" data-no-score data-badge-type="medium-donut" data-doi="10.5194/nhess-2024-212"></div> </div> </div> <script type="text/javascript"> !function (e, t, n) { var d = "createElement", c = "getElementsByTagName", m = "setAttribute", n = document.getElementById(e); return n && n.parentNode && n.parentNode.removeChild(n), n = document[d + "NS"] && document.documentElement.namespaceURI, n = n ? 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NHESSD - Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors