Long Crisis Ahead: Aftermath of the Election Will Reverberate For Years

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class="page__content"> <section class="article" data-id="9714061" data-url="/articles/long-crisis-ahead%3A-aftermath-of-the-election-will-reverberate-for-years-2020-11-05"><div class="ads__native"><div class=""> <div id="js-dfp-tag-1F4" class="atf-native"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div> </div> <section class="article-header"><div class="article-header__container"> <div class="article-header__content"> <div class="article-header__eyebrow"> <span class="eyebrow" aria-label="World Reimagined"> <a href="/web/20201119180647/https://www.nasdaq.com/news-and-insights/topic/world-reimagined-0" class="eyebrow__link"> World Reimagined </a> </span> </div> <h1 class="article-header__headline"> <span>Long Crisis Ahead: Aftermath of the Election Will Reverberate For Years</span> </h1> <div class="article-header__metadata"> <div class="byline "> <div class="byline__info"> <div class="byline__type">Contributor</div> <div class="byline__author"> <span class="byline__name" data-has-link="true"> <a href="/web/20201119180647/https://www.nasdaq.com/authors/gautam-mukunda">Gautam Mukunda</a> </span> </div> </div> </div> <div class="timestamp"> <div class="timestamp__label">Published</div> <time datetime="2020-11-05T08:54:00-0500" class="timestamp__date">Nov 5, 2020 8:54AM EST</time></div> </div> <figure class="article-header__image"><picture class="picture"><source media="all and (min-width: 768px)" type="image/jpeg" data-srcset="/web/20201119180647im_/https://www.nasdaq.com/sites/acquia.prod/files/styles/1370x700/public/2020/11/05/election-protest-callaghan-ohare-reuters.jpeg?h=b812a9c3&itok=bCIkGSTg 1x"></source><source type="image/jpeg" data-srcset="/web/20201119180647im_/https://www.nasdaq.com/sites/acquia.prod/files/styles/720x400/public/2020/11/05/election-protest-callaghan-ohare-reuters.jpeg?h=b812a9c3&itok=vaR2ygiT 1x"></source><img class="media__image media__element b-lazy b-responsive" data-src="/sites/acquia.prod/files/styles/720x400/public/2020/11/05/election-protest-callaghan-ohare-reuters.jpeg?h=b812a9c3&itok=vaR2ygiT" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" alt="Protester holding a sign that says 'We deserve better'" typeof="foaf:Image"/></picture><figcaption class="article-header__image-caption">Credit: Callaghan O'Hare - Reuters / stock.adobe.com</figcaption></figure></div> <div style="position: relative; margin: 0;"> <div class="article-header__railAd"> <div class="ads__right-rail-ad"> <div id="js-dfp-tag-5Sw" class="atf-rightrailbox"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section><div class="body"> <div class="body__left-rail"> <ul class="share share--vertical stickyfill "><li class="share__link"> <a class="share__anchor" aria-label="Facebook" data-network="Facebook" 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href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201119180647/https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/long-crisis-ahead%3A-aftermath-of-the-election-will-reverberate-for-years-2020-11-05&text=Long%20Crisis%20Ahead%3A%20Aftermath%20of%20the%20Election%20Will%20Reverberate%20For%20Years%20%7C%20NASDAQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"></a> </li> <li class="share__link"> <a class="share__anchor" data-network="Email" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201119180647/mailto:/?subject=Long Crisis Ahead: Aftermath of the Election Will Reverberate For Years&body=From Nasdaq.com%0D%0A%0D%0AIt’s more important and useful to look at the health – and even the survival – of the U.S. political system. Today that system is under strain as it has not been since the Civil War, and it’s likely to get much worse with time.%0D%0A%0D%0Ahttps://www.nasdaq.com/articles/long-crisis-ahead%3A-aftermath-of-the-election-will-reverberate-for-years-2020-11-05" aria-label="Email"></a> </li> </ul></div> <div class="body__content"> <p><span class="body__drop-cap">W</span>hile the full results of the U.S. election won’t be known for a while, there are a few things we do know. First, given his numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional district, former Vice President Joe Biden won both the popular vote and the Electoral College. He will become the 46th President. And although Pennsylvania and Georgia remain to be decided, winning either would simply pad his margin. Second, the odds are that Republicans will retain control of the Senate, but there’s no point in speculating on the implications of that until we know more – which won’t happen until January. This is because control of the Senate will probably be decided by the special elections in Georgia in January, where Democrats could pick up 1 or 2 additional seats.</p> <p>It’s more important and useful to look at the health – and even the survival – of the U.S. political system. Today that system is under strain as it has not been since the Civil War, and it’s likely to get much worse with time.</p> <p>The immediate stress on the political system will come from President Trump’s unprecedented attempt to prevent the counting of legally cast ballots. As a Presidential and leadership scholar, I judge that his actions on Election Night and the next day have no parallel in American history. Trump claimed victory in the election despite the fact that no independent observer, or even Fox News, thinks he won. He then lied that the election was being stolen from him because (legitimate) mail-in ballots, which heavily favor former Vice President Biden, were still being counted.</p> <p>The dishonesty, cynicism, and unprecedented nature of these claims cannot be overstated.</p> <div class="ads__inline"> <div id="js-dfp-tag-kPU" class="btf-midpagetwothirdswidth-1"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div> <p>Mail-in ballots, because of the security measures around them <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201119180647/https://www.npr.org/2020/11/04/931136905/we-ll-be-working-24-hours-vote-counting-to-continue-through-the-week">can be slow to count</a>. Most states minimize this concern by processing these ballots as they arrive. In Pennsylvania, however, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201119180647/https://local21news.com/news/local/no-election-reform-legislation-passed-on-last-day-of-session">the Republican state legislature has forbidden mail-in ballots from being counted, or even prepared for counting (a process called “pre-canvassing”) until Election Day</a>. This makes it inevitable that counting those ballots will take several days. In other words, the President is attempting to disenfranchise Americans by throwing out <em>legally cast</em> votes.</p> <p>Although this assault on American elections <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201119180647/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/election-confidence-fraud/612358/">will have lasting effects</a> – <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201119180647/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/trump-trying-stoke-panic-about-election/616527/">confidence in elections is a fragile thing</a> - it seems likely that no critical state will be close enough for his attempt to change the outcome. Further, even the most partisan judge would probably be unwilling to abet such an open attempt to steal an election.</p> <p>The longer-term danger to the system, however, is frightening. This election was not a wholesale rejection of Trump’s approach to governing, and many Republican officeholders maintained their power by embracing him and it.</p> <p>The striking thing about Trump’s political approach, from his rhetoric to the way he governed, was that it abandoned even the pretense of seeking the majority support of the American public. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201119180647/https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/donald-trump-polling-2020-election/index.html">Trump is not the first President to hold office despite losing the popular vote, but he <em>is</em> the first President in the history of polling to never to reach a 50% approval rating in Gallup polling.</a></p> <div class="ads__inline"> <div id="js-dfp-tag-HE8" class="btf-midpagetwothirdswidth-2"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div> <p>The Electoral College’s bias towards small and rural states enabled Trump’s 2016 win and gave him a significant advantage over Biden in this election, but the larger effects of a so strongly biased system are vastly underestimated. The American political system has a variety of counter-majoritarian features, most importantly the Electoral College, the Senate, and a powerful appointed judiciary, that have few parallels in other democracies. These are meant to preserve minority rights against a tyrannical majority.</p> <p>Gerrymandering and the bias of the Senate and the Electoral College, however, means that instead of protecting minority rights, they can enable minority <em>rule</em>.</p> <p>A President elected by a minority of Americans, backed by a Senate where the majority of senators come from states representing a small minority of Americans, appointing Supreme Court justices confirmed by those same senators, and with a House of Representatives whose members are chosen from gerrymandered districts that do not reflect the composition of their states, is one who has the full and unrestricted power of the American government at his or her disposal.</p> <p>But such a President cannot, in any meaningful sense, be said to have democratic (small d) legitimacy. The American people as a whole would have voted for a very different set of people and policies, and have been denied their representation by a system that was never meant to function in the way that it currently does. No democratic political system can survive a disjunction of this magnitude for long. This is the fundamental threat facing the United States today.</p> <div class="ads__inline"> <div id="js-dfp-tag-h-A" class="btf-midpagetwothirdswidth-3"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div> <p>When the Framers created the Senate, for example, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201119180647/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1790_United_States_Census">the largest state by population, Virginia, had about 12.5 times the population of the smallest, Delaware</a>. Today California has more than 68 times the population of Wyoming. A difference of degree this large is a difference in kind. It is now at least theoretically possible to control the Senate, Presidency, and Judiciary with the support of barely a third of the vote. This is the strategy the Republican Party – which has only won a plurality or majority of the popular vote once since 1988 – has been pursuing. Trumpism without Trump would push it – and the political system – to or beyond its limits.</p> <p>A President Biden with a Republican Senate united in opposition to any significant policy initiatives – even ones with overwhelming public support – <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201119180647/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/american-system-broken/616991/">would find himself rendered largely ineffectual and unable to deal with the country’s pressing needs</a>. This would further alienate a public whose <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201119180647/https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/22/key-findings-about-americans-declining-trust-in-government-and-each-other/">faith in virtually every national institution, except the military, is already low</a>.</p> <p>The single greatest responsibility of leaders is not the success of their organizations. It is the preservation of the system. The American political system, when it was created in 1789, was unlike anything the world had seen since the fall of the Roman Republic in 27 BC. It has been preserved through fortune, resolve, and the wisdom of leaders from Lincoln to both Roosevelts.</p> <p>The system has survived because, in moments of extremis, it was able to adapt to new circumstances, as it did via the abolition of slavery and the extension of voting rights to Black Americans and to women. It will have to do so again, and that will require extraordinary leadership and willingness to place the system over self-interest on the part of the leaders of both the Republican and Democratic Parties, not just now, but for years and potentially decades to come. President Trump’s defeat is not the end of the crisis of American democracy. It is just the end of the beginning.</p> <div class="ads__inline"> <div id="js-dfp-tag-hMY" class="btf-midpagetwothirdswidth-4"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div> <p class="body__disclaimer">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p> </div> <aside role="complementary" class="body__right-rail"><div class="inside-container"> <div class="ads__right-rail-ad--2-up"> <div class="ads__right-rail-ad--2-up__button"> <div id="js-dfp-tag-KsY" class="atf-rightrail2upbutton-1"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div> <div class="ads__right-rail-ad--2-up__button"> <div id="js-dfp-tag-7As" class="atf-rightrail2upbutton-2"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div> </div> <div class="ads__right-rail-ad"> <div id="js-dfp-tag-RkI" class="btf-rightrailbox-1"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// 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data-srcset="/web/20201119180647im_/https://www.nasdaq.com/sites/acquia.prod/files/styles/355x355/public/2020/10/26/Gautam.jpg?h=835c0b97&itok=Ff2Wj19n 1x"></source><source type="image/jpeg" data-srcset="/web/20201119180647im_/https://www.nasdaq.com/sites/acquia.prod/files/styles/460x460/public/2020/10/26/Gautam.jpg?h=835c0b97&itok=pzeJz514 1x"></source><img class="media__image media__element b-lazy b-responsive" data-src="/sites/acquia.prod/files/styles/355x355/public/2020/10/26/Gautam.jpg?h=835c0b97&itok=Ff2Wj19n" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" alt="Gautam Mukunda" typeof="foaf:Image"/></picture></a> </figure></div> </header><div class="person-card__info"> <h2 class="person-card__name"> <a href="/web/20201119180647/https://www.nasdaq.com/authors/gautam-mukunda"> Gautam Mukunda </a> </h2> <h3 class="person-card__subhead"> </h3> <ul class="share "><li class="share__link"> <a class="share__anchor" aria-label="Facebook" 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He is the author of two books: Indispensable: When Leaders Really Matter (Harvard Business Review Press, 2012) and Picking Presidents (under contract with University of California Press).</p> <a class="arrow-cta" href="/web/20201119180647/https://www.nasdaq.com/authors/gautam-mukunda"> <span class="arrow-cta__text" aria-label="Read Gautam's Bio">Read Gautam's Bio</span> <span class="arrow-cta__icon" aria-hidden="true"></span> </a> </div> </section></div> </section></div> <div class="body__right-rail"></div> </div> <div class="ads__midpage-fullwidth"> <div id="js-dfp-tag-25M" class="btf-midpagefullwidth"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div> <div class="body body--no-ads"> <div class="body--centered"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script><div id="taboola-below-article-thumbnails1"></div> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div>  <script type="text/javascript" class="teads" async="true" 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