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2024</a></div><h1 class="sc-enMaOJ wzCTD yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--1">Presidenttigallupit ovat olleet väärässä viime vuosina – USA:n vaaleissa hämmentää ”Trump-efekti”</h1><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-hSyjfr fmZXof bRXxCP yle__article__paragraph">Listasimme kolme asiaa, joiden avulla osaat tulkita Yhdysvaltain galluptuloksia. </p><figure class="sc-kJZLhT cBXraX yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20114814","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://schema.org","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","description":"Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit käydään 5. marraskuuta.","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-135389366f402bf26295","keywords":"Kamala Harris,Donald Trump,Yhdysvaltojen presidentit,Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024"}}</script><div class="sc-bKXUjo cUCVNr"><div class="sc-edsqmr chSZpd"><div class="sc-geoRQH cqQSHG"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1727762423/39-135389366f402bf26295 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1727762423/39-135389366f402bf26295 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_357,w_636/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1727762423/39-135389366f402bf26295 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_357,w_636/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1727762423/39-135389366f402bf26295 1x"/><img alt="Kamala Harris ja Donald Trump." src="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1727762423/39-135389366f402bf26295" class="sc-kEsJEW bUUeLL"/></picture></div><div class="sc-fXwCOG kLfXOk"><button aria-disabled="false" class="sc-ivxoEo sc-kLhKbu eByFLI hhnzet"><span class="sc-dpBQxM kZHGnn yds-button__content">Avaa kuvien katselu</span></button></div></div></div><figcaption class="sc-gohMHu infMfp"><span>Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit käydään 5. marraskuuta.</span></figcaption></figure><div class="sc-bOdUTf iueKsP"><div class="sc-ePpfBx lizmxn"><div class="sc-txhaY kOAHoB"><span class="sc-iPHsxv ckWsUl">Satu Helin</span></div></div></div><div class="sc-feCMOb iQwgKi"><div class="sc-gYGZqq gdZOjj yle__article__date"><time class="sc-jGSdlx fxCtdH yle__article__date--published" datetime="2024-10-01T05:19:39+03:00">1.10. 5:19</time><span aria-hidden="true" class="sc-lAGoQ esVfvc">•</span><time class="sc-jGSdlx fxCtdH yle__article__date--modified" datetime="2024-10-01T07:06:17+03:00">Päivitetty 1.10. 7:06</time></div></div><div class="sc-jXpgWc joSncZ"><div class="sc-ddLvXF CaRJe"></div><div class="sc-bhcutL hIPcxY"></div></div></header><section class="yle__article__content"><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-StzaE fmZXof csjtet yle__accessibilityText">Osa artikkelin sisällöstä ei ole välttämättä saavutettavissa esimerkiksi ruudunlukuohjelmalla.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Äärimmäisen tasainen presidenttikisa huipentuu vaaleihin marraskuun alussa.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Siihen asti voit seurata demokraattiehdokas <strong class="sc-dRlUCX gZPRaT yle__article__strong">Kamala Harrisin</strong> ja republikaaniehdokas <strong class="sc-dRlUCX gZPRaT yle__article__strong">Donald Trumpin</strong> kannatuksen kehittymistä tämän jutun päivittyvistä grafiikoista.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph"><em class="sc-fLqhfm hELbYF yle__article__emphasis">Alla näet tuoreimman maanlaajuisen galluptilanteen.</em></p><div class="sc-ZVgAE gOnFTH yle__article__infogram"> <div class="infogram-embed" data-id="19fcfe4c-383f-4237-a008-7e1c8cb72e0e" data-type="interactive" data-title=""></div> </div><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph"><em class="sc-fLqhfm hELbYF yle__article__emphasis">Tässä näet puolestaan ehdokkaisen kannatuksen ratkaisevissa osavaltioissa.</em></p><div class="sc-esOZpL GNlQC yle__article__externalContent"><div class="yle__article__externalContent__html"><figure class="plus-app plus-app-2024-11-usa_presidentinvaalit_tulospalvelu"> </figure> <noscript>Toteutus vaati toimiakseen JavaScriptin.</noscript></div></div><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Pelkkä koko maan kannatustilanne ei paljasta kaikkea siitä, kummalla on paremmat mahdollisuudet nousta Yhdysvaltain seuraavaksi presidentiksi.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Nämä asiat kannattaa pitää mielessä, kun seuraa mielipidemittauksia.</p><h2 class="sc-fUEImY epOJmm yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">1. Donald Trump on ehdolla</h2><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph"><strong class="sc-dRlUCX gZPRaT yle__article__strong">Gallupit aliarvioivat Trumpin suosion sekä vuonna 2016 että 2020. Jostain syystä juuri Trumpin kannatus on aiemmissa vaaleissa jäänyt piiloon.</strong></p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Kysymys on niin sanotusta Trump-efektistä.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Gallupit ennakoivat republikaanien kannatuksen melko täsmällisesti kongressivaaleissa vuosina 2018 ja 2022.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Trump oli molemmissa vaaleissa mukana kampanjoinnissa tukemassa republikaanipuoluetta. Gallup-nikkareilla on ollut ongelmia nimenomaan silloin, kun Trump on ollut itse ehdokas.Nyt he yrittävät kolmatta kertaa mitata Trumpin kannatusta presidentinvaaleissa.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Kyselytutkimuksia on muokattu sekä 2016 että uudelleen 2020 vaalien jälkeen, jotta ne tavoittaisivat Trumpin kannattajat paremmin. Tavoite on esimerkiksi saada nuorten miesten ääni paremmin kuuluviin kannatuskyselyissä.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Se, miten hyvin tässä on tällä kertaa onnistuttu, selviää vasta marraskuussa.</p><h2 class="sc-fUEImY epOJmm yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">2. Vaalista ennustetaan äärimmäisen tasaista monessa osavaltiossa</h2><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph"><strong class="sc-dRlUCX gZPRaT yle__article__strong">Monessa ratkaisevassa vaa’ankieliosavaltiossa äänet tulevat jakautumaan erittäin tasaisesti Donald Trumpin ja Kamala Harrisin välillä, ennusteet kertovat.</strong></p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Näin kävi myös edellisissä presidentinvaaleissa.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Esimerkiksi Arizonan osavaltiossa <strong class="sc-dRlUCX gZPRaT yle__article__strong">Joe Bidenille</strong> voitti Trumpin vain runsaan 10 000 äänen turvin vuonna 2020. Ääniä annettiin yli kolme miljoonaa.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">ABC-kanavan omistama FiveThirtyEight-sivusto ennusti syyskuun lopussa, että peräti neljässä vaa’ankieliosavaltiossa voitto ratkeaa alle yhden prosentin marginaalin turvin.</p><h2 class="sc-fUEImY epOJmm yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">3. Presidentinvaaleja ei välttämättä voita eniten ääniä saanut ehdokas</h2><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph"><strong class="sc-dRlUCX gZPRaT yle__article__strong">Yhdysvalloissa vaalit voittaa se, joka kerää eniten valitsijamiehiä eri osavaltioista.</strong></p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Republikaanien ehdokas on saanut enemmän ääniä kuin demokraattiehdokas presidentinvaaleissa vain kerran 2000-luvulla. Silti republikaaniehdokas on voittanut presidentinvaalit kolmesti</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Ehdokas tarvitsee vaalivoittoon vähintään 270 valitsijamiestä. Lähes kaikissa osavaltioissa eniten ääniä saanut ehdokas saa kaikki osavaltion valitsijamiehet.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Suurimmassa osassa osavaltioita vaalien tulos on helppo arvata etukäteen, mutta kaikissa ei.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Näitä epävarmoja osavaltioita kutsutaan vaa’ankieliosavaltioiksi. Niitä on yleisimmän tulkinnan mukaan seitsemän.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Yle seuraa presidenttiehdokkaiden kannatusta vaaleihin asti. Käytämme seurantaan <a class="sc-byRyzU bHmPz yle__article__link" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/" role="link">FiveThirtyEight</a>-sivuston dataa. Sivusto kerää yhteen Yhdysvalloissa tehtyjä mielipidetiedusteluja.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Niiden perusteella se laskee molempien ehdokkaiden kannatuksen keskiarvon.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Kyseessä ei ole puhdas keskiarvo, vaan FiveThirtyEight painottaa eri kannatuskyselyitä esimerkiksi otoksen koon ja tutkimuksen tekijän sidonnaisuuksien mukaan.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Tämän jutun grafiikat esittävät FiveThirtyEightin omien mallien mukaan painotettua kyselytutkimusten keskiarvoa.</p><p class="sc-dwGkES sc-kUiVwB fmZXof jeOJHA yle__article__paragraph">Vaikka kokonaiskannatus ei kerro suoraan ehdokkaiden mahdollisuudesta vaalivoittoon, kannatusmittaukset kertovat yleisesti kummankin ehdokkaan suosiosta ja sen muutoksista.</p></section><footer class="yle__article__footer"><h2 class="sc-cCirkR dupvHU">Aiheesta enemmän: Paketissa 3 linkkiä</h2><h2 class="sc-klYcpz hWgJbu yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--3" aria-hidden="true">Aiheesta enemmän</h2><div class="yle__article__links" role="list" aria-label="Aiheesta enemmän"><div role="listitem" class="sc-fKAjen bBzdbb"><div class="sc-cOfyym ipxzyA"><div class="sc-heWFoB irKmDb"><div class="sc-btiQdf eZtqcB"><div class="sc-dxYlaw eITWZf"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-345335/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024</a></div><h3 class="sc-dabxBu GYVCH"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20111246" class="sc-bRfDCh iiSyRB">Nuoret miehet ja naiset jakautuvat selvästi erilleen USA:n vaaleissa – Trump on tietyn ryhmän suosiossa</a></h3><time class="sc-vZGLb sRMQM">21.9.</time></div></div><div class="sc-eiBUIA kuZKfN"><div class="sc-cOoMUl iISNdD"><div class="sc-geoRQH cqQSHG"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1079,w_1080,x_421,y_1/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1726845279/39-135100066ec00f2e83b7 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1079,w_1080,x_421,y_1/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1726845279/39-135100066ec00f2e83b7 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1726845279/39-135100066ec00f2e83b7 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1726845279/39-135100066ec00f2e83b7 1x"/><img alt="Kuvakollaasi Kamala Harrisista ja Donald Trumpista." src="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1726845279/39-135100066ec00f2e83b7" class="sc-kEsJEW bUUeLL"/></picture></div></div></div></div></div><div aria-hidden="true" class="sc-dspCDH tsFOC"><hr class="sc-fmtPfW haedHV"/></div><div role="listitem" class="sc-fKAjen bBzdbb"><div class="sc-cOfyym ipxzyA"><div class="sc-heWFoB irKmDb"><div class="sc-btiQdf eZtqcB"><div class="sc-dxYlaw eITWZf"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-345335/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024</a></div><h3 class="sc-dabxBu GYVCH"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20114293" class="sc-bRfDCh iiSyRB">Analyysi: Harris ja Trump lähtevät loppusuoralle huikean tasaväkisinä</a></h3><time class="sc-vZGLb sRMQM">27.9.</time></div></div><div class="sc-eiBUIA kuZKfN"><div class="sc-cOoMUl iISNdD"><div class="sc-geoRQH cqQSHG"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1080,x_438,y_0/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1727425915/39-135501166f66d500ed30 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1080,x_438,y_0/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1727425915/39-135501166f66d500ed30 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1727425915/39-135501166f66d500ed30 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1727425915/39-135501166f66d500ed30 1x"/><img alt="Kuvakollaasi Kamala Harrisista ja Donald Trumpista." src="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1919,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1727425915/39-135501166f66d500ed30" class="sc-kEsJEW bUUeLL"/></picture></div></div></div></div></div><div role="listitem"><div class="sc-csIIoV qhkUo"><div class="sc-fKAjen lobMfb"><div class="sc-cOfyym ipxzyA"><div class="sc-heWFoB irKmDb"><div class="sc-OslQY jQYtaO"><svg height="12" viewbox="0 0 321 48" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M48 2.22629V45.7737C48 46.9605 46.971 48 45.8431 48H2.25365C1.02898 47.9979 0 46.9605 0 45.7716V2.22629C0 0.991101 1.02898 0 2.25365 0H45.8431C46.971 0 48 0.991101 48 2.22629ZM18.6058 17.0928H17.8314C16.9813 17.0928 16.693 17.6252 16.4847 18.5384L14.3236 27.9339H13.9533C13.1579 27.9612 12.7959 27.8518 12.5371 26.8186L10.3487 18.5279L10.3255 18.4353C10.1593 17.8061 9.97203 17.0907 9.09877 17.0907H8.28022C7.53321 17.0907 7.10605 17.501 7.10605 18.2186C7.10605 18.6142 7.21126 19.1971 7.43852 20.0577L9.76161 28.3442C10.193 29.9666 11.1125 30.6905 12.7454 30.6905H13.7513C13.6187 31.3849 13.4525 32.174 13.3515 32.4917C12.9432 33.7585 12.3309 33.9899 11.2725 33.9899C10.3382 33.9899 9.73004 33.9184 9.28605 33.8658L9.24817 33.8616C8.98724 33.8321 8.78103 33.809 8.58533 33.809C7.96458 33.809 7.59423 34.1961 7.59423 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fill="white"></path><path d="M188.628 47.9999V0.659927H220.956V8.68793H198.12V20.5679H217.836V28.2719H198.12V39.9599H221.556V47.9999H188.628Z" fill="white"></path><path d="M237.948 47.9999H228.588V0.659927H237.348L260.256 30.5999V0.659927H269.688V47.9999H262.584L237.948 16.5359V47.9999V47.9999Z" fill="white"></path><path d="M305.064 35.448H288.792L284.424 48H274.728L291.852 0.528015H303.336L320.136 48H309.576L305.064 35.448ZM297.168 9.62401L290.928 28.08H303.072L297.168 9.62401Z" fill="white"></path></svg></div><div class="sc-fqJixv cPMkke"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://areena.yle.fi/1-71702235" class="sc-fkkkrx kbLdRa"><h3 class="sc-eWdyzq dCLwPz"><span class="sc-jrVwZP hZyObM"></span>Iida Tikka & mureneva maa</h3></a></div></div><div class="sc-eiBUIA kuZKfN"><div class="sc-cOoMUl iISNdD"><div class="sc-geoRQH cqQSHG"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-134944266e93ba3bfc51 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-134944266e93ba3bfc51 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-134944266e93ba3bfc51 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-134944266e93ba3bfc51 1x"/><img alt="" 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href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-215893/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Konfliktit</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20115235" class="MinimalHeadlines__Title-sc-a86400a0-6 gBluDb visitable-link">Analyysi: Yhdysvaltojen vaihtoehdot eskalaation estämiseksi käyvät vähiin</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__TriggeredItem-sc-a86400a0-0 kuOHCr"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-a86400a0-7 frBTDL"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-a86400a0-8 cVdqqb"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 hORwkK MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-a86400a0-4 bjDKrM" datetime="2024-10-02T02:57:58+0300">2:57</time><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-a86400a0-2 fGcnrS"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-a86400a0-1 lclBqm"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-193507/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Yhdysvallat</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20115234" class="MinimalHeadlines__Title-sc-a86400a0-6 gBluDb visitable-link">Yli 150 kuollut Helene-hirmumyrskyssä Yhdysvalloissa</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__TriggeredItem-sc-a86400a0-0 kuOHCr"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-a86400a0-7 frBTDL"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-a86400a0-8 cVdqqb"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 hORwkK MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-a86400a0-4 bjDKrM" datetime="2024-10-02T02:38:05+0300">2:38</time><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-a86400a0-2 fGcnrS"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-a86400a0-1 lclBqm"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-213947/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Poliisi</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20115233" class="MinimalHeadlines__Title-sc-a86400a0-6 gBluDb visitable-link">12-vuotias tyttö kateissa Porissa</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__TriggeredItem-sc-a86400a0-0 kuOHCr"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-a86400a0-7 frBTDL"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-a86400a0-8 cVdqqb"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 hORwkK MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-a86400a0-4 bjDKrM" datetime="2024-10-02T01:56:02+0300">1:56</time><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-a86400a0-2 fGcnrS"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-a86400a0-1 lclBqm"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-218480/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Onnettomuudet</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20115232" class="MinimalHeadlines__Title-sc-a86400a0-6 gBluDb visitable-link">Thaimaan koulubussiturmassa kuollut ainakin 23 ihmistä</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__TriggeredItem-sc-a86400a0-0 kuOHCr"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-a86400a0-7 frBTDL"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-a86400a0-8 cVdqqb"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 hORwkK MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-a86400a0-4 bjDKrM" datetime="2024-10-02T01:17:22+0300">1:17</time><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-a86400a0-2 fGcnrS"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-a86400a0-1 lclBqm"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-340121/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Rikosepäilyt</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20115231" class="MinimalHeadlines__Title-sc-a86400a0-6 gBluDb visitable-link">Uusnatsille luetaan syytteet kahden lapsen murhan yrityksestä kauppakeskuksessa Oulussa</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__TriggeredItem-sc-a86400a0-0 kuOHCr"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-a86400a0-7 frBTDL"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-a86400a0-8 cVdqqb"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 hORwkK MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-a86400a0-4 bjDKrM" datetime="2024-10-02T01:00:39+0300">1:00</time></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-a86400a0-1 iQtvwk"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-217329/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Turvallisuus</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20114877" class="MinimalHeadlines__Title-sc-a86400a0-6 gBluDb visitable-link">GPS-häirintä pilasi ilmakuvauslennot itärajalla – erikoinen säätiedote voisi ratkaista ongelman</a></h3></div></li></ol></aside><aside class="GridSystem__GridCell-sc-613a840-0 SidebarLayout__SidebarItemContainer-sc-a2d46c0f-1 ibVaqt cccaIC"><h2 id="sb-most-commented" class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bANfEy SidebarLayout__SidebarItemHeader-sc-a2d46c0f-0 bikhBe">Kommentoiduimmat</h2><ol aria-labelledby="sb-most-commented"><li class="MinimalHeadlines__TriggeredItem-sc-a86400a0-0 kuOHCr"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-a86400a0-7 frBTDL"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-a86400a0-8 cVdqqb"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-a86400a0-3 kVlpdl">1</div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-a86400a0-2 fGcnsc"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-a86400a0-1 lclBqm"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-211188/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Vapaa-aika</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20115147" class="MinimalHeadlines__Title-sc-a86400a0-6 gBluDb visitable-link">Olli Rehn nostaa esiin syyn Euroopan ongelmiin: Ihmiset haluavat liikaa vapaa-aikaa</a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20115147#comments" class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 StoryCommentsCount__CommentsLink-sc-68d056a3-0 JkPTY hnQTfY MinimalHeadlines__StyledStoryCommentsCount-sc-a86400a0-5 cjdsqC"><svg width="16" height="16" fill="none" viewbox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" class="StoryCommentsCount__StyledMessageSquare-sc-68d056a3-1 cCeslE"><path fill="currentColor" fill-rule="evenodd" d="M5 6a1 1 0 0 0-1 1v13.586l2.293-2.293A1 1 0 0 1 7 18h12a1 1 0 0 0 1-1V7a1 1 0 0 0-1-1zM2.879 4.879A3 3 0 0 1 5 4h14a3 3 0 0 1 3 3v10a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H7.414l-3.707 3.707A1 1 0 0 1 2 23V7a3 3 0 0 1 .879-2.121" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg>452 kommenttia</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__TriggeredItem-sc-a86400a0-0 kuOHCr"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-a86400a0-7 frBTDL"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-a86400a0-8 cVdqqb"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-a86400a0-3 kVlpdl">2</div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-a86400a0-2 fGcnsc"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-a86400a0-1 lclBqm"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-330776/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Kuluttajat</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20113848" class="MinimalHeadlines__Title-sc-a86400a0-6 gBluDb visitable-link">Henkilökortti uudistui tavalla, joka vaikeuttaa sen käyttöä – ”Tuntuu huijaukselta”, sanoo kortin hankkinut</a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20113848#comments" class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 StoryCommentsCount__CommentsLink-sc-68d056a3-0 JkPTY hnQTfY MinimalHeadlines__StyledStoryCommentsCount-sc-a86400a0-5 cjdsqC"><svg width="16" height="16" fill="none" viewbox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" class="StoryCommentsCount__StyledMessageSquare-sc-68d056a3-1 cCeslE"><path fill="currentColor" fill-rule="evenodd" d="M5 6a1 1 0 0 0-1 1v13.586l2.293-2.293A1 1 0 0 1 7 18h12a1 1 0 0 0 1-1V7a1 1 0 0 0-1-1zM2.879 4.879A3 3 0 0 1 5 4h14a3 3 0 0 1 3 3v10a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H7.414l-3.707 3.707A1 1 0 0 1 2 23V7a3 3 0 0 1 .879-2.121" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg>289 kommenttia</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__TriggeredItem-sc-a86400a0-0 kuOHCr"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-a86400a0-7 frBTDL"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-a86400a0-8 cVdqqb"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-a86400a0-3 kVlpdl">3</div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-a86400a0-2 fGcnsc"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-a86400a0-1 lclBqm"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-185583/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Lähi-itä</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20114963" class="MinimalHeadlines__Title-sc-a86400a0-6 gBluDb visitable-link">Analyysi: Israel tekee mitä tahtoo, eikä Yhdysvallat voi sille mitään</a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20114963#comments" class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 StoryCommentsCount__CommentsLink-sc-68d056a3-0 JkPTY hnQTfY MinimalHeadlines__StyledStoryCommentsCount-sc-a86400a0-5 cjdsqC"><svg width="16" height="16" fill="none" viewbox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" class="StoryCommentsCount__StyledMessageSquare-sc-68d056a3-1 cCeslE"><path fill="currentColor" fill-rule="evenodd" d="M5 6a1 1 0 0 0-1 1v13.586l2.293-2.293A1 1 0 0 1 7 18h12a1 1 0 0 0 1-1V7a1 1 0 0 0-1-1zM2.879 4.879A3 3 0 0 1 5 4h14a3 3 0 0 1 3 3v10a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H7.414l-3.707 3.707A1 1 0 0 1 2 23V7a3 3 0 0 1 .879-2.121" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg>246 kommenttia</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__TriggeredItem-sc-a86400a0-0 kuOHCr"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-a86400a0-7 frBTDL"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-a86400a0-8 cVdqqb"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-a86400a0-3 kVlpdl">4</div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-a86400a0-2 fGcnsc"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-a86400a0-1 lclBqm"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-215440/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Opiskelijat</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a 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kuOHCr"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-a86400a0-7 frBTDL"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-a86400a0-8 cVdqqb"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-a86400a0-3 kVlpdl">5</div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-a86400a0-1 iQtvwk"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/t/18-35057/fi" data-testid="minimal-headline-tag" class="sc-fIfZzT kEtXGR">Media</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 bZWmLC link-accent"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20113825" class="MinimalHeadlines__Title-sc-a86400a0-6 gBluDb visitable-link">Kari Enqvistin kolumni: Meitä säikytellään kuvitelluilla katastrofeilla</a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20241002034354/https://yle.fi/a/74-20113825#comments" class="Typography-sc-d683ebd5-0 StoryCommentsCount__CommentsLink-sc-68d056a3-0 JkPTY hnQTfY MinimalHeadlines__StyledStoryCommentsCount-sc-a86400a0-5 cjdsqC"><svg width="16" height="16" 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","type":"heading"},{"alt":"Kamala Harris ja Donald Trump.","aspect":1.7777777777777777,"caption":"Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit käydään 5. marraskuuta.","id":"39-135389366f402bf26295","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"fin","value":"Kamala Harris ja Donald Trump."}],"blurhash":"L9H1fF1F]nPXA.4:02s+rFNHoy^5","tags":[{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Kamala Harris"},{"language":"fin","value":"Kamala Harris"},{"language":"swe","value":"Kamala Harris"}],"extId":"18-298715"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Donald Trump"},{"language":"fin","value":"Donald Trump"},{"language":"swe","value":"Donald Trump"}],"extId":"18-149907"},{"label":[{"language":"fin","value":"Yhdysvaltojen presidentit"}],"extId":"18-205750"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"2024 United States presidential election"},{"language":"fin","value":"Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024"},{"language":"rus","value":"Президентские выборы в США в 2024 году"},{"language":"swe","value":"Presidentvalet i USA 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galluptilanteen.*","type":"text"},{"infogramId":"19fcfe4c-383f-4237-a008-7e1c8cb72e0e","type":"infogram"},{"text":"*Tässä näet puolestaan ehdokkaisen kannatuksen ratkaisevissa osavaltioissa.*","type":"text"},{"type":"external-content","html":"https:\u002F\u002Fweb.archive.org\u002Fweb\u002F20241002034354\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fplus.yle.fi\u002F2024-11-usa_presidentinvaalit_tulospalvelu\u002Findex.html","scripts":["https:\u002F\u002Fweb.archive.org\u002Fweb\u002F20241002034354\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fplus.yle.fi\u002F2024-11-usa_presidentinvaalit_tulospalvelu\u002Fjs\u002Fscript.js"],"css":["https:\u002F\u002Fweb.archive.org\u002Fweb\u002F20241002034354\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fplus.yle.fi\u002F2024-11-usa_presidentinvaalit_tulospalvelu\u002Fcss\u002Fstyles.css","https:\u002F\u002Fweb.archive.org\u002Fweb\u002F20241002034354\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fplus.yle.fi\u002F2024-11-usa_presidentinvaalit_tulospalvelu\u002Fcss\u002Fvariables.light.css"],"darkModeCss":["https:\u002F\u002Fweb.archive.org\u002Fweb\u002F20241002034354\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fplus.yle.fi\u002F2024-11-usa_presidentinvaalit_tulospalvelu\u002Fcss\u002Fvariables.dark.css"],"supports":["darkmode"],"htmlContent":"\u003Cfigure class=\"plus-app plus-app-2024-11-usa_presidentinvaalit_tulospalvelu\"\u003E\n\u003C\u002Ffigure\u003E\n\u003Cnoscript\u003EToteutus vaati toimiakseen JavaScriptin.\u003C\u002Fnoscript\u003E"},{"text":"Pelkkä koko maan kannatustilanne ei paljasta kaikkea siitä, kummalla on paremmat mahdollisuudet nousta Yhdysvaltain seuraavaksi presidentiksi.","type":"text"},{"text":"Nämä asiat kannattaa pitää mielessä, kun seuraa mielipidemittauksia.","type":"text"},{"text":"1. Donald Trump on ehdolla","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"**Gallupit aliarvioivat Trumpin suosion sekä vuonna 2016 että 2020. Jostain syystä juuri Trumpin kannatus on aiemmissa vaaleissa jäänyt piiloon.**","type":"text"},{"text":"Kysymys on niin sanotusta Trump-efektistä.","type":"text"},{"text":"Gallupit ennakoivat republikaanien kannatuksen melko täsmällisesti kongressivaaleissa vuosina 2018 ja 2022.","type":"text"},{"text":"Trump oli molemmissa vaaleissa mukana kampanjoinnissa tukemassa republikaanipuoluetta. Gallup-nikkareilla on ollut ongelmia nimenomaan silloin, kun Trump on ollut itse ehdokas.Nyt he yrittävät kolmatta kertaa mitata Trumpin kannatusta presidentinvaaleissa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Kyselytutkimuksia on muokattu sekä 2016 että uudelleen 2020 vaalien jälkeen, jotta ne tavoittaisivat Trumpin kannattajat paremmin. Tavoite on esimerkiksi saada nuorten miesten ääni paremmin kuuluviin kannatuskyselyissä.","type":"text"},{"text":"Se, miten hyvin tässä on tällä kertaa onnistuttu, selviää vasta marraskuussa.","type":"text"},{"text":"2. Vaalista ennustetaan äärimmäisen tasaista monessa osavaltiossa","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"**Monessa ratkaisevassa vaa’ankieliosavaltiossa äänet tulevat jakautumaan erittäin tasaisesti Donald Trumpin ja Kamala Harrisin välillä, ennusteet kertovat.**","type":"text"},{"text":"Näin kävi myös edellisissä presidentinvaaleissa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Esimerkiksi Arizonan osavaltiossa **Joe Bidenille** voitti Trumpin vain runsaan 10 000 äänen turvin vuonna 2020. Ääniä annettiin yli kolme miljoonaa.","type":"text"},{"text":"ABC-kanavan omistama FiveThirtyEight-sivusto ennusti syyskuun lopussa, että peräti neljässä vaa’ankieliosavaltiossa voitto ratkeaa alle yhden prosentin marginaalin turvin.","type":"text"},{"text":"3. Presidentinvaaleja ei välttämättä voita eniten ääniä saanut ehdokas","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"**Yhdysvalloissa vaalit voittaa se, joka kerää eniten valitsijamiehiä eri osavaltioista.**","type":"text"},{"text":"Republikaanien ehdokas on saanut enemmän ääniä kuin demokraattiehdokas presidentinvaaleissa vain kerran 2000-luvulla. Silti republikaaniehdokas on voittanut presidentinvaalit kolmesti","type":"text"},{"text":"Ehdokas tarvitsee vaalivoittoon vähintään 270 valitsijamiestä. Lähes kaikissa osavaltioissa eniten ääniä saanut ehdokas saa kaikki osavaltion valitsijamiehet.","type":"text"},{"text":"Suurimmassa osassa osavaltioita vaalien tulos on helppo arvata etukäteen, mutta kaikissa ei.","type":"text"},{"text":"Näitä epävarmoja osavaltioita kutsutaan vaa’ankieliosavaltioiksi. Niitä on yleisimmän tulkinnan mukaan seitsemän.","type":"text"},{"text":"Yle seuraa presidenttiehdokkaiden kannatusta vaaleihin asti. Käytämme seurantaan [FiveThirtyEight](https:\u002F\u002Fprojects.fivethirtyeight.com\u002Fpolls\u002Fpresident-general\u002F2024\u002Fnational\u002F)-sivuston dataa. Sivusto kerää yhteen Yhdysvalloissa tehtyjä mielipidetiedusteluja.","type":"text"},{"text":"Niiden perusteella se laskee molempien ehdokkaiden kannatuksen keskiarvon.","type":"text"},{"text":"Kyseessä ei ole puhdas keskiarvo, vaan FiveThirtyEight painottaa eri kannatuskyselyitä esimerkiksi otoksen koon ja tutkimuksen tekijän sidonnaisuuksien mukaan.","type":"text"},{"text":"Tämän jutun grafiikat esittävät FiveThirtyEightin omien mallien mukaan painotettua kyselytutkimusten keskiarvoa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Vaikka kokonaiskannatus ei kerro suoraan ehdokkaiden mahdollisuudesta vaalivoittoon, kannatusmittaukset kertovat yleisesti kummankin ehdokkaan suosiosta ja sen muutoksista.","type":"text"},{"type":"links","links":[{"external":{"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fweb.archive.org\u002Fweb\u002F20241002034354\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fyle.fi\u002Fa\u002F74-20111246"},"internal":{"id":"74-20111246"},"title":"Nuoret miehet ja naiset jakautuvat selvästi erilleen USA:n vaaleissa – Trump on tietyn ryhmän suosiossa","datePublished":"2024-09-21T07:15:39+0300","subject":{"description":{"fi":"Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024 ovat järjestyksessään 60. 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Den som väljs till president vid valet 2024 kommer att tillträda posten den 20 januari 2025.","en":"60th quadrennial U.S. presidential election","ru":"Очередные президентские выборы в США запланированы на 5 ноября 2024 года","se":null},"exactMatch":["wikidata:Q101110072"],"updated":"2024-09-10T13:50:28+03:00","alternativeIds":[],"title":{"fi":"Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024","sv":"Presidentvalet i USA 2024","en":"2024 United States presidential election","ru":"Президентские выборы в США в 2024 году","se":null},"types":["MainConcept","Concept","Event"],"id":"18-345335","contentHits":554},"headline":{"image":{"alt":"Kuvakollaasi Kamala Harrisista ja Donald Trumpista.","source":"EPA, AFP. 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Den som väljs till president vid valet 2024 kommer att tillträda posten den 20 januari 2025.","en":"60th quadrennial U.S. presidential election","ru":"Очередные президентские выборы в США запланированы на 5 ноября 2024 года","se":null},"exactMatch":["wikidata:Q101110072"],"updated":"2024-09-10T13:50:28+03:00","alternativeIds":[],"title":{"fi":"Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024","sv":"Presidentvalet i USA 2024","en":"2024 United States presidential election","ru":"Президентские выборы в США в 2024 году","se":null},"types":["MainConcept","Concept","Event"],"id":"18-345335","contentHits":554},"headline":{"image":{"alt":"Kuvakollaasi Kamala Harrisista ja Donald Trumpista.","source":"EPA, AFP. Kuvankäsittely: Eeva Sarlin \u002F Yle, Harri Vähäkangas \u002F Yle","aspect":1.7777777777777777,"caption":"Kamala Harris ja Donald Trump ovat kyselyiden mukaan käytännössä tasoissa niissä osavaltioissa, joissa vaali ratkaistaan.","id":"39-135501166f66d500ed30","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"fin","value":"Kuvakollaasi Kamala Harrisista ja Donald Trumpista."}],"blurhash":"LAC5lXbgsKxu-=ngS%XA0JbEW~nN","tags":[{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Donald Trump"},{"language":"fin","value":"Donald Trump"},{"language":"swe","value":"Donald Trump"}],"extId":"18-149907"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Donald Trump Campaign"},{"language":"fin","value":"Donald Trumpin vaalikampanja"},{"language":"swe","value":"Donald Trumps valkampanj"}],"extId":"18-166161"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Kamala Harris"},{"language":"fin","value":"Kamala Harris"},{"language":"swe","value":"Kamala Harris"}],"extId":"18-298715"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"2024 United States presidential election"},{"language":"fin","value":"Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024"},{"language":"rus","value":"Президентские выборы в США в 2024 году"},{"language":"swe","value":"Presidentvalet i USA 2024"}],"extId":"18-345335"}],"copyright":[{"language":"und","value":"EPA, AFP. 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Den som väljs till president vid valet 2024 kommer att tillträda posten den 20 januari 2025.","en":"60th quadrennial U.S. presidential election","ru":"Очередные президентские выборы в США запланированы на 5 ноября 2024 года","se":null},"exactMatch":["wikidata:Q101110072"],"updated":"2024-09-10T13:50:28+03:00","alternativeIds":[],"title":{"fi":"Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit 2024","sv":"Presidentvalet i USA 2024","en":"2024 United States presidential election","ru":"Президентские выборы в США в 2024 году","se":null},"types":["MainConcept","Concept","Event"],"id":"18-345335","contentHits":554},{"description":{"fi":"Donald John Trump (s. 14. kesäkuuta 1946 Queens, New York City, New York, Yhdysvallat) on Yhdysvaltain 45. presidentti. Hän voitti presidentinvaalit republikaanisen puolueen ehdokkaana marraskuussa 2016 ja astui virkaan tammikuussa 2017.\nEnnen presidentiksi nousuaan Trump tuli tunnetuksi yritysjohtajana, miljardöörinä, kirjailijana ja televisiopersoonana. Hän aloitti uransa isänsä, kiinteistömoguli Fred Trumpin yrityksessä. Myöhemmin Trump siirtyi yrityksen johtoon, ja se nimettiin uudelleen Trump Organizationiksi. Liikemiesuransa aikana Trump on toiminut muun muassa kiinteistö-, kasino- ja hotellialalla. Trump tunnetaan myös tositelevisiosarja Diilin isäntänä vuosina 2005–2015 sekä entisenä missikilpailujen omistajana.\nTrump pyrki reformipuolueen presidenttiehdokkaaksi vuonna 2000 mutta vetäytyi myöhemmin kisasta. Vuonna 2015 hän ilmoitti pyrkivänsä republikaanipuolueen presidenttiehdokkaaksi vuoden 2016 vaaleissa. Hän saavutti ehdokkuuteen vaadittavan puoluekokousedustajamäärän toukokuussa 2016. Hän voitti Yhdysvaltain vuoden 2016 presidentinvaalit valitsijamiehin 306–232 vastaehdokkaanaan demokraatti Hillary Clinton ja vannoi virkavalansa 20. tammikuuta 2017.\nTrump on poliittisesti etupäässä oikeistokonservatiivi ja populisti. Hän lupasi vaalikampanjassaan muun muassa asettaa Yhdysvaltain edut etusijalle, vähentää laitonta maahanmuuttoa, laskea veroja ja lisätä työpaikkoja. Trump on kiistelty persoona, joka tunnetaan suorasta kielenkäytöstään.\nTrump on julkaissut yli 14 kirjaa, joista useimmat käsittelevät liike-elämässä menestymistä.\nYhdysvaltalaisen Forbesin maailman vaikutusvaltaisimpien henkilöiden listalla Trump oli vuonna 2016 maailman toiseksi vaikutusvaltaisin henkilö.","sv":"Donald John Trump (engelskt uttal: [ˈdɒnəld d͡ʒɒn tɹʌmp] ( lyssna)), född 14 juni 1946 i New York, är en amerikansk republikansk politiker samt USA:s 45:e och nuvarande president. Han har tidigare varit verksam som affärsman, företagsledare och tv-personlighet. Han tillträdde ämbetet som president den 20 januari 2017 efter att ha vunnit presidentvalet 2016.Vid sin presidentinstallation var Trump den äldsta nytillträdande presidenten i USA:s historia. Han var då åtta månader äldre än Ronald Reagan när denne påbörjade sin första presidentperiod 1981. Han är den första presidenten som vid sitt tillträde saknat såväl politisk som militär erfarenhet. Han är även en av de längsta presidenterna. Trump är den president i USA:s historia som haft störst privat förmögenhet samt den tredje presidenten som valt att avstå från presidentlönen och donera den till välgörande ändamål.Trump är född och uppvuxen i Queens i New York. Han avlade 1968 en kandidatexamen i nationalekonomi med inriktning finans på Wharton School vid University of Pennsylvania. Före presidentskapet var han känd som styrelseordförande och vd för Trump Organization åren 1971–2017. Under hans ledning expanderade företaget och utvecklades från att ha fokuserat på mindre hyresbostäder till att bli ett multinationellt konglomerat med verksamhet i flera olika länder och inom branscher för bland annat fastigheter, hotell, kasinon, finansiella tjänster och golfanläggningar. Han mötte ekonomiska motgångar under lågkonjunkturen under tidigt 1990-tal, då han under en period hade en negativ nettoförmögenhet, efter misslyckanden med sina kasinon i Atlantic City. Han arbetade därefter bit för bit upp sin förmögenhet. I Forbes lista över världens rikaste personer 2018 placerades Trump på 766:e plats i världen och 260:e plats i USA med en uppskattad förmögenhet på 3,1 miljarder dollar (motsvarande 30 miljarder kronor). Sedan presidentkampanjen 2016 har hans förmögenhet minskat med cirka 1,5 miljarder dollar. Trump var före presidentskapet även känd som tv-person sedan han varit verkställande producent för NBC:s The Apprentice åren 2004–2015. Han började framträda som politisk debattör under 1980-talet. Han kandiderade i presidentvalet 2000 för Reform Party, men drog tillbaka kandidaturen under partiets primärval.Under tiden som USA:s president har Trump genomfört flera av sina vallöften. Inrikespolitiskt har han har bland annat: utsett Gorsuch och Kavanaugh till nya domare i USA:s högsta domstol och infört restriktioner i immigrationspolitiken; avskedat FBI-chefen Comey för osanna vittnesmål; genomfört en stor skattereform med skattelättnader för hushåll och företag sedan 1980-talet; infört betald föräldraförsäkring; utlyst drogberoendet av opioider som en nationell hälsokris; stärkt landets gränssäkerhet och fortsatt byggandet av en mur längst gränsen mot Mexiko; samt genomfört en fängelsereform som fått brett stöd över partigränserna. Utrikespolitiskt har han bland annat: beordrat robotattacker mot mål i Syrien som svar på al-Assads påstådda användning av kemiska vapen i inbördeskriget; förklarat ISIS besegrade i Syrien; lämnat Iranavtalet; erkänt Jerusalem som Israels huvudstad och flyttat den amerikanska ambassaden dit; haft en hård retorik mot Kina för vad han menar varit orättvisa handelsvillkor, samt mot Nordkoreas högste ledare Kim Jong-un för deras kärnvapenprogram, vilket ledde till att de träffades vid ett historiskt toppmöte i Singapore; omförhandlat NAFTA-avtalet; samt slutit det nya frihandelsavtalet USMCA med Mexiko och Kanada.Samtidigt har Trump fått massiv kritik som president. I samband med hans installation ägde en internationell protest rum, hans presidentorder för en restriktiv immigrationspolitik har mötts med politiskt motstånd, liksom hans stöd för NRA och andra tillägget i konstitutionen. Erkännandet av Jerusalem som Israels huvudstad har lett till diplomatiska fördömanden, hans hårda retorik mot Nordkorea och Kina har kritiserats och planerna på att lämna Parisavtalet har fått kritik. Konspirationsteorin om hans påstådda band med Ryssland under presidentkampanjen 2016 utreddes i närmare två år utan att bevis hittades. Under hela Trumps presidentskap har demokraterna kommit med hot om att ställa honom inför riksrätt. Demokraterna i representanthuset röstade den 19 december 2019 igenom att inleda en process om att ställa Trump inför riksrätt för anklagelser om att han skulle ha hållit inne med bistånd till Ukraina. Den 5 februari 2020 friades han av senaten på båda åtalspunkterna om maktmissbruk och förhindrande av kongressens arbete. Republikanerna har majoritet i senaten och den republikan som röstade för att fälla Trump var Mitt Romney.","en":"Donald John Trump is an American real estate developer, television personality, politician, and author. 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Ennen Yhdysvaltain senaattia Harris toimi San Franciscon piirisyyttäjänä ja Kalifornian oikeusministerin virassa.Harris on äitinsä puolelta intialaista sukujuurta, ja sieltä juontuu myös hänen etunimensä, joka tarkoittaa lotuksen kukkaa. Hänen isänsä puolestaan on lähtöisin Jamaikalta. Harris on kolmas naispuolinen Kalifornian senaattori. Harrisin uskonnolliset taustayhteisöt ovat sekä hindulaisuus että baptismi. Harris luetaan kuuluvaksi demokraattien liberaaliin siipeen.Joe Biden ilmoitti 11. elokuuta 2020 valinneensa Harrisin hänen varapresidenttiehdokkaaksi Yhdysvaltain vuoden 2020 presidentinvaaleissa.","sv":"Kamala Devi Harris, född 20 oktober 1964 i Oakland i Kalifornien, är en amerikansk demokratisk politiker. Hon är ledamot av USA:s senat sedan 2017. 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