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<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en" class=" story nytapp-vi-article " xmlns:og="http://opengraphprotocol.org/schema/"> <head> <meta charset="utf-8" /> <title data-rh="true">U.N. Reports 7 Billion Humans, but Others Don’t Count on It - The New York Times</title> <meta data-rh="true" name="robots" content="noarchive, max-image-preview:large"/><meta data-rh="true" name="description" content="Demographers disagree, and the United States Census Bureau says the milestone will not be reached for four months yet."/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:url" content="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/world/united-nations-reports-7-billion-humans-but-others-dont-count-on-it.html"/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:title" content="U.N. Says 7 Billion Now Share the World (Published 2011)"/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:description" content="Demographers disagree, and the United States Census Bureau says the milestone will not be reached for four months yet."/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:image" content="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2011/11/01/world/PEOPLE/PEOPLE-articleLarge.jpg?year=2011&h=360&w=600&s=f44b7f349f2348f663f44169a19abb99628c51717a5cee385dc4d42abae1a2fe&k=ZQJBKqZ0VN&tw=1"/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:image:alt" content="Was this baby born Monday in New Delhi the seven billionth human? Statistically possible, say United Nations demographers. India has over one billion of the world's roughly seven billion people."/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:url" content="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/world/united-nations-reports-7-billion-humans-but-others-dont-count-on-it.html"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:type" content="article"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:title" content="U.N. Says 7 Billion Now Share the World (Published 2011)"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:image" content="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2011/11/01/world/PEOPLE/PEOPLE-articleLarge.jpg?year=2011&h=360&w=600&s=f44b7f349f2348f663f44169a19abb99628c51717a5cee385dc4d42abae1a2fe&k=ZQJBKqZ0VN"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:image:alt" content="Was this baby born Monday in New Delhi the seven billionth human? Statistically possible, say United Nations demographers. India has over one billion of the world's roughly seven billion people."/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:description" content="Demographers disagree, and the United States Census Bureau says the milestone will not be reached for four months yet."/> <link data-rh="true" rel="canonical" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/world/united-nations-reports-7-billion-humans-but-others-dont-count-on-it.html"/><link data-rh="true" rel="alternate" href="nyt://article/bd86a7bd-9670-5094-a4cd-d621e9b3e5a4"/><link data-rh="true" rel="alternate" type="application/json+oembed" href="https://www.nytimes.com/svc/oembed/json/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2011%2F11%2F01%2Fworld%2Funited-nations-reports-7-billion-humans-but-others-dont-count-on-it.html" title="U.N. 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Says 7 Billion Now Share the World</h1></div><div role="toolbar" data-testid="share-tools" aria-label="Social Media Share buttons, Save button, and Comments Panel with current comment count" class="css-yomkvi"><div></div><div data-testid="share-tools-menu" class="css-16wyv0a"><ul data-testid="share-tools-list" class="css-1atjma0"><li class="css-atthsv"><div class="css-vxcmzt"><div class="css-79elbk"><button type="button" aria-label="" aria-expanded="false" class="css-1eeh360 actionbar-button" data-testid="gift-article-button"><span class="css-10d8k1f"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="19" height="19" viewBox="0 0 19 19"><path d="M18.04 5.293h-2.725c.286-.34.493-.74.606-1.17a2.875 2.875 0 0 0-.333-2.322A2.906 2.906 0 0 0 13.64.48a3.31 3.31 0 0 0-2.372.464 3.775 3.775 0 0 0-1.534 2.483l-.141.797-.142-.847A3.745 3.745 0 0 0 7.927.923 3.31 3.31 0 0 0 5.555.459 2.907 2.907 0 0 0 3.607 1.78a2.877 2.877 0 0 0-.333 2.321c.117.429.324.828.606 1.171H1.155a.767.767 0 0 0-.757.757v3.674a.767.767 0 0 0 .757.757h.424v7.53A1.01 1.01 0 0 0 2.588 19h14.13a1.01 1.01 0 0 0 1.01-.959v-7.56h.424a.758.758 0 0 0 .757-.757V6.05a.759.759 0 0 0-.868-.757Zm-7.196-1.625a2.665 2.665 0 0 1 1.01-1.736 2.24 2.24 0 0 1 1.574-.313 1.817 1.817 0 0 1 1.211.818 1.857 1.857 0 0 1 .202 1.453 2.2 2.2 0 0 1-.838 1.191h-3.431l.272-1.413ZM4.576 2.386a1.837 1.837 0 0 1 1.221-.817 2.23 2.23 0 0 1 1.565.313 2.624 2.624 0 0 1 1.01 1.736l.242 1.453H5.182a2.2 2.2 0 0 1-.838-1.19 1.857 1.857 0 0 1 .202-1.495h.03ZM1.548 6.424h7.54V9.39h-7.58l.04-2.967Zm1.181 4.128h6.359v7.287H2.729v-7.287Zm13.777 7.287h-6.348v-7.307h6.348v7.307Zm1.181-8.468h-7.53V6.404h7.53V9.37Z" fill="#121212" fill-rule="nonzero"></path></svg>Share full article</span></button></div></div></li><li class="css-68l2z5"><div class="css-vxcmzt"><div class="css-79elbk"><button type="button" aria-label="More sharing options ..." aria-expanded="false" class="css-1nurhyi actionbar-button"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="23" height="18" viewBox="0 0 23 18" class="css-zd9juy"><path d="M1.357 17.192a.663.663 0 0 1-.642-.81c1.82-7.955 6.197-12.068 12.331-11.68V1.127a.779.779 0 0 1 .42-.653.726.726 0 0 1 .78.106l8.195 6.986a.81.81 0 0 1 .253.557.82.82 0 0 1-.263.547l-8.196 6.955a.83.83 0 0 1-.779.105.747.747 0 0 1-.42-.663V11.29c-8.418-.905-10.974 5.177-11.08 5.45a.662.662 0 0 1-.6.453Zm10.048-7.26a16.37 16.37 0 0 1 2.314.158.81.81 0 0 1 .642.726v3.02l6.702-5.682-6.702-5.692v2.883a.767.767 0 0 1-.242.536.747.747 0 0 1-.547.18c-4.808-.537-8.364 1.85-10.448 6.922a11.679 11.679 0 0 1 8.28-3.093v.042Z" fill="#000000" fill-rule="nonzero"></path></svg></button></div></div></li><li class="css-68l2z5 save-button"><button type="button" role="switch" class="css-1yhvmgx actionbar-button" data-testid="save-article-button" aria-label="Save article for reading later..." aria-checked="false" disabled="" aria-busy="false" aria-live="polite"><svg width="12" height="18" viewBox="0 0 12 18" class="css-eap6fy"><g fill-rule="nonzero"><path class="saved-fill" d="M1.157 1.268v14.288l4.96-3.813 4.753 3.843V1.268z"></path><path class="saved-stroke" d="m12 18-5.9-4.756L0 17.98V1.014C0 .745.095.487.265.297.435.107.664 0 .904 0h10.192c.24 0 .47.107.64.297.169.19.264.448.264.717V18ZM1.157 1.268v14.288l4.96-3.813 4.753 3.843V1.268H1.158Z"></path></g></svg></button></li></ul></div></div><div data-testid="imageblock-wrapper"><figure class="sizeMedium layoutHorizontal css-nlqgyf" aria-label="media" role="group"><div class="css-1xb94ky" data-testid="imageContainer-children-Image"><img alt="" class="css-rq4mmj" src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2011/11/01/world/PEOPLE/PEOPLE-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale" srcSet="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2011/11/01/world/PEOPLE/PEOPLE-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp 600w,https://static01.nyt.com/images/2011/11/01/world/PEOPLE/PEOPLE-jumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp 1024w" sizes="((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw" decoding="async" width="600" height="360"/></div><figcaption data-testid="photoviewer-children-ImageCaption" class="css-ktho12 e3rygrp0"><span class="css-jevhma e13ogyst0">Was this baby born Monday in New Delhi the seven billionth human? Statistically possible, say United Nations demographers. India has over one billion of the world's roughly seven billion people.</span><span class="css-14fe1uy e1z0qqy90"><span class="css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0">Credit...</span><span><span aria-hidden="false">Lynsey Addario for The New York Times</span></span></span></figcaption></figure></div><div data-testid="byline-timestamp" class="css-xt80pu eakwutd0"><div class="css-p6m5rf"><div class="byline-container css-1e2jphy epjyd6m2"><div class="css-233int epjyd6m1"><p class="css-4anu6l e1jsehar1"><span class="byline-prefix">By </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/sam-roberts" class="last-byline css-ojhyzr e1jsehar0" itemProp="name">Sam Roberts</a></p><div class="css-1gqes1i epjyd6m0"></div></div></div><ul class="css-1cgskve epjyd6m4"><li class="css-ccw2r3 epjyd6m3"><time class="css-1uc6ajg e16638kd0" dateTime="2011-10-31T16:15:17-04:00">Oct. 31, 2011</time></li></ul></div></div></header><section name="articleBody" class="meteredContent css-1r7ky0e"><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-0"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Feeling claustrophobic? You’re not alone. According to United Nations demographers, <a class="css-yywogo" href="http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm" title="The United Nations statistics" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">6,999,999,999</a> other Earthlings potentially felt the same way on Monday when the world’s population topped seven billion. But if you’d rather go by the <a class="css-yywogo" href="http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/worldpopinfo.php" title="The Census Bureau information" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">United States Census Bureau’s projections</a>, you’ve got some breathing room. The bureau estimates that even with the world’s population increasing by 215,120 a day, it won’t <a class="css-yywogo" href="http://blogs.census.gov/censusblog/2011/10/the-world-population-at-7-billion-.html" title="The projection" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reach seven billion</a> for about four months. </p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">How do the dueling demographic experts reconcile a difference, as of Monday, of 28 million, which is more than all the people in Saudi Arabia? </p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">They don’t. </p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“No one can know the exact number of people on the globe,” Gerhard Heilig, chief of the population estimates and projections section of the United Nations Population Division, acknowledges. </p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Even the best individual government censuses have a margin of error of at least 1 percent, he said, which would translate in the global aggregation to “a window of uncertainty of six months before or six months after Oct. 31.” An error margin of even as little as 2 percent would mean that Monday’s estimate of seven billion actually was 56 million off (which is more people than were counted in South Africa). </p></div><aside class="css-ew4tgv" aria-label="companion column"></aside></div><div data-testid="Dropzone-1"></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-1"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The Census Bureau’s global population clock gives the pretense of greater precision. It projects that about 255 people are born every minute (about 367,000 a day) while about 106 die (roughly 153,000 a day). At that rate, the world’s natural increase would be about 78.5 million a year, or well more than the entire population of France, Britain or Thailand. </p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">“We don’t use a population clock,” said Mr. Heilig. “It’s a bit silly.”</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The two agencies begin with censuses and other vital statistics from more than 228 countries and other political entities, then project births and deaths, estimate the migration of refugees and project mortality rates from AIDS and other epidemics. </p><div class="css-1336jj"><div class="css-121kum4"><div class="css-171quhb"></div><div class="css-asuuk5"><noscript><div class="css-7axq9l" data-testid="optimistic-truncator-noscript"><svg width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" class="css-1b5b8u1"><path fill="currentColor" fill-rule="evenodd" d="M2.5 12a9.5 9.5 0 1 1 19 0 9.5 9.5 0 0 1-19 0Zm8.5 1.75v-7.5h2v7.5h-2Zm0 2v2h2v-2h-2Z" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg><div data-testid="optimistic-truncator-noscript-message" class="css-6yo1no"><p class="css-3kpklk">We are having trouble retrieving the article content.</p><p class="css-3kpklk">Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.</p></div></div></noscript><div class="css-1dv1kvn" id="optimistic-truncator-a11y" tabindex="-1"><hr/><p>Thank you for your patience while we verify access. 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Statistically possible, say United Nations demographers. India has over one billion of the world's roughly seven billion people."},"credit":"Lynsey Addario for The New York Times","id":"SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvZTYzYzZkODAtNGZkMi01MGFjLWE1NTUtZjk3OTIwNmQ3YzFh"},"requestToCommentEnabled":false,"reviewItems":[],"reviewSummary":"","section":{"__typename":"Section","displayName":"World","id":"U2VjdGlvbjpueXQ6Ly9zZWN0aW9uLzcwZTg2NWI2LWNjNzAtNTE4MS04NGM5LTgzNjhiM2E1YzM0Yg==","name":"world","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Fsection\u002F70e865b6-cc70-5181-84c9-8368b3a5c34b","url":"\u002Fsection\u002Fworld"},"slug":"01people","source":{"__typename":"Organization","displayName":"New York Times","id":"T3JnYW5pemF0aW9uOm55dDovL29yZ2FuaXphdGlvbi9jMjc5MTM4OC02YjE2LTVmZmQtYTExOS05NmVhY2IxOTg5YzE="},"sourceId":"100000001145622","sourcePublisher":"scoop","sprinkled":{"__typename":"SprinkledContent","configs":[{"__typename":"SprinkledConfig","name":"mobile","stride":4,"threshold":3},{"__typename":"SprinkledConfig","name":"desktop","stride":7,"threshold":3},{"__typename":"SprinkledConfig","name":"mobileHoldout","stride":4,"threshold":2},{"__typename":"SprinkledConfig","name":"desktopHoldout","stride":5,"threshold":3},{"__typename":"SprinkledConfig","name":"hybrid","stride":4,"threshold":3}]},"sprinkledBody":{"__typename":"DocumentBlock","content":[{"__typename":"HeaderLegacyBlock","byline":{"__typename":"BylineBlock","bylines":[{"__typename":"Byline","creators":[{"__typename":"Person","bioUrl":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002Fby\u002Fsam-roberts","displayName":"Sam Roberts","id":"UGVyc29uOm55dDovL3BlcnNvbi80OGQ0ODZjNi1mN2JlLTUxNDEtYmI2NC00ZDY1OWM5NzVmMjI=","promotionalMedia":{"__typename":"Image","crops":[{"__typename":"ImageCrop","renditions":[{"__typename":"ImageRendition","name":"thumbLarge","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\u002Fimages\u002F2018\u002F02\u002F20\u002Fmultimedia\u002Fauthor-sam-roberts\u002Fauthor-sam-roberts-thumbLarge-v3.png"}]}],"id":"SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvZTQ4YWZmZGMtNWJhZC01YzU2LTlkOWEtNTA5MGM2MzQ4NTU1"}}],"prefix":"By","renderedRepresentation":"By Sam Roberts"}],"hideHeadshots":false,"role":[],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},"headline":{"__typename":"Heading1Block","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"U.N. Says 7 Billion Now Share the World"}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},"label":null,"ledeMedia":{"__typename":"ImageBlock","media":{"__typename":"Image","altText":"","caption":{"__typename":"TextOnlyDocumentBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Was this baby born Monday in New Delhi the seven billionth human? Statistically possible, say United Nations demographers. India has over one billion of the world's roughly seven billion people."}]}],"text":"Was this baby born Monday in New Delhi the seven billionth human? Statistically possible, say United Nations demographers. India has over one billion of the world's roughly seven billion people."},"credit":"Lynsey Addario for The New York Times","crops":[{"__typename":"ImageCrop","renditions":[{"__typename":"ImageRendition","height":360,"name":"articleLarge","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\u002Fimages\u002F2011\u002F11\u002F01\u002Fworld\u002FPEOPLE\u002FPEOPLE-articleLarge.jpg","width":600},{"__typename":"ImageRendition","height":688,"name":"jumbo","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\u002Fimages\u002F2011\u002F11\u002F01\u002Fworld\u002FPEOPLE\u002FPEOPLE-jumbo.jpg","width":1024},{"__typename":"ImageRendition","height":437,"name":"popup","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\u002Fimages\u002F2011\u002F11\u002F01\u002Fworld\u002FPEOPLE\u002FPEOPLE-popup.jpg","width":650}]},{"__typename":"ImageCrop","renditions":[{"__typename":"ImageRendition","height":128,"name":"articleInline","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fstatic01.nyt.com\u002Fimages\u002F2011\u002F11\u002F01\u002Fworld\u002FPEOPLE\u002FPEOPLE-articleInline.jpg","width":190}]}],"id":"SW1hZ2U6bnl0Oi8vaW1hZ2UvZTYzYzZkODAtNGZkMi01MGFjLWE1NTUtZjk3OTIwNmQ3YzFh","imageType":"photo","legacyHtmlCaption":"Was this baby born Monday in New Delhi the seven billionth human? Statistically possible, say United Nations demographers. India has over one billion of the world's roughly seven billion people.","timesTags":[],"uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Fimage\u002Fe63c6d80-4fd2-50ac-a555-f979206d7c1a","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002Fimagepages\u002F2011\u002F11\u002F01\u002Fworld\u002FPEOPLE.html"},"size":"MEDIUM"},"subhead":null,"timestampBlock":{"__typename":"TimestampBlock","align":"DEFAULT","showUpdatedTimestamp":null,"timestamp":"2011-10-31T20:15:17.000Z"}},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Feeling claustrophobic? You’re not alone. According to United Nations demographers, "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"The United Nations statistics","uri":null,"url":"http:\u002F\u002Fesa.un.org\u002Funpd\u002Fwpp\u002Findex.htm"}],"text":"6,999,999,999"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" other Earthlings potentially felt the same way on Monday when the world’s population topped seven billion. But if you’d rather go by the "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"The Census Bureau information","uri":null,"url":"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.census.gov\u002Fpopulation\u002Finternational\u002Fdata\u002Fidb\u002Fworldpopinfo.php"}],"text":"United States Census Bureau’s projections"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":", you’ve got some breathing room. The bureau estimates that even with the world’s population increasing by 215,120 a day, it won’t "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"The projection","uri":null,"url":"http:\u002F\u002Fblogs.census.gov\u002Fcensusblog\u002F2011\u002F10\u002Fthe-world-population-at-7-billion-.html"}],"text":"reach seven billion"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" for about four months. "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":0},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"How do the dueling demographic experts reconcile a difference, as of Monday, of 28 million, which is more than all the people in Saudi Arabia? "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":1},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"They don’t. "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"“No one can know the exact number of people on the globe,” Gerhard Heilig, chief of the population estimates and projections section of the United Nations Population Division, acknowledges. "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":true,"bad":false,"index":2},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Even the best individual government censuses have a margin of error of at least 1 percent, he said, which would translate in the global aggregation to “a window of uncertainty of six months before or six months after Oct. 31.” An error margin of even as little as 2 percent would mean that Monday’s estimate of seven billion actually was 56 million off (which is more people than were counted in South Africa). "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":true,"adsDesktopHoldout":true,"adsHybrid":true,"adsMobile":true,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":3},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"The Census Bureau’s global population clock gives the pretense of greater precision. It projects that about 255 people are born every minute (about 367,000 a day) while about 106 die (roughly 153,000 a day). At that rate, the world’s natural increase would be about 78.5 million a year, or well more than the entire population of France, Britain or Thailand. "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":4},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"“We don’t use a population clock,” said Mr. Heilig. “It’s a bit silly.”"}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"The two agencies begin with censuses and other vital statistics from more than 228 countries and other political entities, then project births and deaths, estimate the migration of refugees and project mortality rates from AIDS and other epidemics. "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":5},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Differences in interpreting the individual figures and how they fit together account for the overall disparities. Generally, the bureau’s projections lag behind those of the United Nations by up to a year (the population will reach eight billion in either 2026 or 2025, they figure, respectively). "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":true,"bad":false,"index":6},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"“Realistically, the uncertainty is at least 2 percent and that’s for the 75 percent of the world for which we have recent official counts or estimates,” Joel E. Cohen, head of the Laboratory of Populations at Rockefeller University and Columbia University, said Monday. “Now, world population is estimated to be growing by about 1.1 percent per year. Hence each percent uncertainty in total count translates into almost one year uncertainty in the date by which the population grows past a given threshold. Bottom line: world population passes seven billion sometime in the last year or two or the next year or two, most likely.” "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":true,"adsMobile":true,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":7},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Professor Cohen added, though, “Today’s as good a day as any to be aware of the problems of the world’s population and to begin to take action to solve them.”"}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":true,"adsDesktopHoldout":true,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":8},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Daniel Goodkind, a demographer in the Census Bureau’s Population Division, said the different estimates were still “remarkably close.” "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":9},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"“Although birthrates and death rates have both declined sharply since the 1960s,” he said, “death rates have declined more rapidly than birthrates. The cumulative effect of the excess of births over deaths in recent decades has led to a successive attainment of billion-person milestones every 12 or 13 years.”"}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":true,"bad":false,"index":10},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Dr. Goodkind said the bureau revised its projections on a continuing basis, while the United Nations made revisions every two years. Even so, the Census Bureau projects that the world population will hit seven billion next March 12 — well within the United Nations’ six-month, 1 percent window of uncertainty. "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":11},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"So who’s right? “We’re not exactly in sync, but we’re pretty close,” Dr. Goodkind said. “I’m not a betting man.” "}],"textAlign":"DEFAULT"}]},"storyFormat":null,"storylines":[{"__typename":"AssociatedStoryline","ruleName":"styln-international-general","storyline":{"__typename":"Storyline","context":null,"displayName":"Best of International","experimentalJsonBlob":"{\"data\":[{\"version\":1,\"type\":\"experimentalJsonBlob\",\"data\":[{\"version\":1,\"type\":\"guide\",\"data\":{\"title\":\"Around the World With The Times\",\"leadIn\":\"Our reporters across the globe take you into the field.\",\"sections\":[{\"section\":[{\"type\":\"bulletedList\",\"value\":[\"\u003Cstrong\u003EToast, Trees and a Wassailing Queen: \u003C\u002Fstrong\u003EThe centuries-old tradition is \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F13\u002Fworld\u002Feurope\u002Fengland-wassailing-cider-tradition.html\\\"\u003Emaking a comeback in rural England\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, with rituals and revelry meant to chase away evil spirits and the winter blues.\",\"\u003Cstrong\u003EHow Venezuela Helps Fuel Colombian Violence:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E A decades-old rebel group \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F12\u002Fworld\u002Famericas\u002Fvenezuela-colombia-violence.html\\\"\u003Ehas waged the worst violence in Colombia in a generation\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, setting off troubling regional tensions.\",\"\u003Cstrong\u003EWomen Lead a Democratic Revival: \u003C\u002Fstrong\u003EA leftist movement\u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F04\u002Fworld\u002Fasia\u002Fsri-lanka-politics-women.html\\\"\u003E that took power in Sri Lanka after an economic collapse\u003C\u002Fa\u003E is seizing a rare opportunity to rally more women into politics.\",\"\u003Cstrong\u003EThe Dark Side of a Lobster Fight: \u003C\u002Fstrong\u003EAs Canada wrangles \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F02\u002Fworld\u002Fcanada\u002Fnova-scotia-canada-lobster.html\\\"\u003Ean epic, decades-long saga\u003C\u002Fa\u003E of who can fish for lobster, and when, emerging threats are heating up the conflict in Nova Scotia.\",\"\u003Cstrong\u003EWhere Divinity and Politics Meet:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E \u003C\u002Fstrong\u003EThe Maha Kumbh Mela, a Hindu festival in India that is drawing hundreds of millions of pilgrims, is a \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F02\u002Fworld\u002Fasia\u002Findia-maha-kumbh-mela.html\\\"\u003Epowerful marketing tool for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his 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and revelry meant to chase away evil spirits and the winter blues."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"How Venezuela Helps Fuel Colombian Violence:"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" A decades-old rebel group "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002F2d554167-ea98-5966-8324-f38cfe61982c","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F12\u002Fworld\u002Famericas\u002Fvenezuela-colombia-violence.html"}],"text":"has waged the worst violence in Colombia in a generation"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":", setting off troubling regional tensions."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"Women Lead a Democratic Revival: "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"A leftist movement"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002F654747a5-f8c0-55b0-a2a9-f7ab1d0d85b4","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F04\u002Fworld\u002Fasia\u002Fsri-lanka-politics-women.html"}],"text":" that took power in Sri Lanka after an economic collapse"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" is seizing a rare opportunity to rally more women into politics."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"The Dark Side of a Lobster Fight: "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"As Canada wrangles "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002Fb1af719a-8776-5639-9313-d6d58829c681","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F02\u002Fworld\u002Fcanada\u002Fnova-scotia-canada-lobster.html"}],"text":"an epic, decades-long saga"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" of who can fish for lobster, and when, emerging threats are heating up the conflict in Nova Scotia."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"Where Divinity and Politics Meet:"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":" "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"The Maha Kumbh Mela, a Hindu festival in India that is drawing hundreds of millions of pilgrims, is a 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