{"title":"Investigating the Effect of Uncertainty on a LP Model of a Petrochemical Complex: Stability Analysis Approach","authors":"Abdallah Al-Shammari","volume":59,"journal":"International Journal of Chemical and Molecular Engineering","pagesStart":1045,"pagesEnd":1048,"ISSN":"1307-6892","URL":"https:\/\/publications.waset.org\/pdf\/1216","abstract":"This study discusses the effect of uncertainty on\r\nproduction levels of a petrochemical complex. Uncertainly or\r\nvariations in some model parameters, such as prices, supply and\r\ndemand of materials, can affect the optimality or the efficiency of any\r\nchemical process. For any petrochemical complex with many plants,\r\nthere are many sources of uncertainty and frequent variations which\r\nrequire more attention. Many optimization approaches are proposed\r\nin the literature to incorporate uncertainty within the model in order\r\nto obtain a robust solution. In this work, a stability analysis approach\r\nis applied to a deterministic LP model of a petrochemical complex\r\nconsists of ten plants to investigate the effect of such variations on\r\nthe obtained optimal production levels. The proposed approach can\r\ndeterminate the allowable variation ranges of some parameters,\r\nmainly objective or RHS coefficients, before the system lose its\r\noptimality. Parameters with relatively narrow range of variations, i.e.\r\nstability limits, are classified as sensitive parameters or constraints\r\nthat need accurate estimate or intensive monitoring. These stability\r\nlimits offer easy-to-use information to the decision maker and help in\r\nunderstanding the interaction between some model parameters and\r\ndeciding when the system need to be re-optimize. The study shows\r\nthat maximum production of ethylene and the prices of intermediate\r\nproducts are the most sensitive factors that affect the stability of the\r\noptimum solution","references":"[1] H. Lababidi, M. Ahmed, M. Alatiqi, A. Al-Enzi; \" Optimizating the\r\nsupply chain of a petrochemical company under uncertain operating and\r\neconomic conditions\", Ind. Eng. Chem. Res., vol 43, pp. 63-73,2004\r\n[2] N. Sahinidis, \"Optimization under uncertainty: state-of- the-art and\r\nopportunities\". Comput. Chem. Eng. vol 28, pp. 971-983, 2004.\r\n[3] R. Meyers, Handbook of petrochemical production processes, New\r\nYork, McGraw-Hill, 2005.\r\n[4] Prices of petrochemicals were obtained from website www.icis.com","publisher":"World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology","index":"Open Science Index 59, 2011"}