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Patrick</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/corruption/" rel="tag">Corruption</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/foreign-interference-accusations-of/" rel="tag">foreign interference - accusations of</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/foreign-policy/" rel="tag">foreign-policy</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/future-of-iraq/" rel="tag">future of iraq</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/ghassan-attiyah/" rel="tag">Ghassan Attiyah</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/government-formation-failure-to/" rel="tag">Government formation - failure to</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/hoshyar-zebari/" rel="tag">Hoshyar Zebari</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/ina/" rel="tag">INA</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/independent-the-uk/" rel="tag">Independent -The (UK)</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/international-oil-companies/" rel="tag">international oil companies</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/iran/" rel="tag">Iran</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/iraqi-kurdistan/" rel="tag">Iraqi kurdistan</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/kleptocracy/" rel="tag">kleptocracy</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/krg/" rel="tag">KRG</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/krg-separatism/" rel="tag">KRG Separatism</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/kurdistan/" rel="tag">Kurdistan</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/lebanon/" rel="tag">Lebanon</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/maliki-nouri-al/" rel="tag">Maliki - Nouri al-</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/massacres/" rel="tag">Massacres</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/militia/" rel="tag">Militia</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/occupation/" rel="tag">occupation</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/oil-revenues/" rel="tag">oil revenues</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/partition/" rel="tag">partition</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/political-paralysis/" rel="tag">political paralysis</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/political-parties/" rel="tag">political parties</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/reconstruction/" rel="tag">Reconstruction</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/sanctions/" rel="tag">Sanctions</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/sectarian-government/" rel="tag">sectarian government</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/society-and-economy/" rel="tag">Society And Economy</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/surge-failure/" rel="tag">Surge Failure</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/turkey/" rel="tag">Turkey</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/violence/" rel="tag">violence</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/zebari-hoshyar/" rel="tag">Zebari - Hoshyar</a></p> <div class="entry" dir="rtl" align="right"> <p>Seven years after the US and Britain invaded Iraq, the country remains highly unstable and fragmented. So divided are parties and communities that no government has emerged from the general election three months ago, which was intended to be a crucial staging post in Iraq’s return to normality. Political leaders have not even started serious negotiations on sharing power. </p> <p>"I have never been so depressed about the future of Iraq," said one former minister. "The émigré ruling class which came to power after 2003 is terrible. They have no policy other than to see how far they can rob the state."</p> <p>None of this is very apparent to the outside world, because US policy since 2008 has been to declare a famous victory and withdraw its troops. </p> <p>This week the US troop level drops to 92,000, lower for the first time than the number of American soldiers in Afghanistan. The US military wants to maintain the myth that it somehow turned round the war in Iraq by means of "the surge" and emerged successfully from the conflict.</p> <p>This claim was always exaggerated. The insurgency against the US occupation was rooted in the Sunni Arab community, and when this was defeated by Shia government and militia forces in 2006-7, the Sunni had little choice but to look for an accommodation with the Americans. The most important change in Iraq was more to do with the outcome of the Shia-Sunni struggle than US military tactical innovations. This is why American generals are finding that the "surge" in Afghanistan this year, supposedly emulating success in Iraq, is showing such disappointing results. </p> <p>The foreign-policy dominance of the military over civilian arm of the US government was reinforced by the Iraq war. Only this week the US Senate voted an extra $33bn for the military "surge" in Afghanistan, while the State Department gets only an extra $4bn. This is on top of $130bn for Iraq and Afghanistan this year already voted by Congress. </p> <p>In Iraq, violence is far less than three years ago, and in this sense the country is "better" than it was when 3,000 bodies of people killed in the sectarian slaughter were being buried every month. But periodic al-Qa’ida attacks are still enough to create a sense of unease. To prevent them, the streets of Baghdad are so clogged with checkpoints and concrete blast walls that it is difficult to move through the city. </p> <p>It is not so much the continuing, though much diminished, level of violence which worries Iraqis. The failure to replace the lame-duck government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki highlights the depth of sectarian and ethnic divisions between Shia, Sunni and Kurd. It was easy enough to forecast the outcome of the election by assuming that most voters would vote according to their communal loyalties. </p> <p>These divisions, exacerbated by recent massacres, are not going to go away. But what makes them so destructive is the poor quality of leadership of the political parties, with the partial exception of the Kurds. </p> <p>The former minister quoted above said that his fear was that Iraq had acquired a kleptomaniac ruling elite that runs the government as a racket.</p> <p>Some Iraqis cynically take refuge in the belief that the state is so dysfunctional at the best of times that the failure to put in place a new government makes little difference. There is something in this argument, but there are signs in Baghdad that the failure to agree a new government is beginning to paralyse Iraq’s rickety administrative machine. </p> <p>For instance, 111,000 new state jobs cannot be filled without a decision by parliament, and even minor decisions are not taken. One political leader complained that he could not even get somebody to renew the permits for his bodyguards’ weapons. </p> <p>The communal divisions and political paralysis lead some Iraqis to fear that Iraq is turning into another Lebanon. Power will be so fragmented that no decision can be taken, job allocated or long-term policy pursued. </p> <p>The Iraqi commentator and political scientist Ghassan Attiyah believes "a de facto partition will happen". As in Lebanon, internal divisions open the way to foreign intervention. </p> <p>The Iraqi foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, points to the increasing role of Iraq’s neighbours, led by Iran and Turkey, whom Iraqi politicians have invited in. "As a result it was not just an Iraqi election but a regional election," says Mr Zebari. As in Lebanon, the involvement of foreign powers, with their own interests at heart, may stabilise the situation temporarily but it also complicate and institutionalises Iraq’s problems. </p> <p>The analogy with Lebanon can be overdrawn. Unlike Lebanon or Afghanistan, Iraq has oil and the revenues to create a strong state and army. "Iraqis are so volatile and so violent that only the oil will keep them together," says Mr Attiyah. The under-exploited super-giant oil fields which international oil companies are now developing means that oil revenues should start increasing rapidly in about two years’ time. </p> <p>Iraq does not have to solve all or even the majority of its problems to make life better for its people who have endured 30 years of foreign and civil wars, occupation and sanctions. Iraqi Kurdistan, so autonomous that it is almost independent, has many of the failings of the rest of Iraq, such as corruption and a vast government payroll that leaves little money for investment. But the Kurdish political leadership is strong enough and secure good enough for the region to begin to boom. Cranes dominate the skyline of Arbil, the Kurdish capital, while there are still very few visible in Baghdad. </p> <p>The reign of the present ruling elite in Iraq may be temporary. Many of the returning émigrés seem to want to plunder as much as they can as soon as they can before relocating to Europe, the US or some sympathetic Arab capital. They may have abler successors. But the failure to form a new government, and the growing perception that the present one is illegitimate, is making Iraq so unstable that it cannot reconstruct itself.</p> <p><strong>Source: </strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/patrick-cockburn-a-stable-iraq-is-still-a-very-long-way-off-1986224.html" class="external" target="_blank"><strong>A stable Iraq is still a very long way off</strong></a><strong> by Patrick Cockburn </strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.independent.co.uk/" target="_blank" class="external"><strong>The Independent</strong></a></p> </div> </div> <hr/> <div class="post clearfix" id="post-10719"> <div class="postmetadata"><span class="comments"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/25/al-maliki-discusses-government-formation-with-sadrist-delegation/#respond" title="Comment on Al-Maliki discusses government formation with Sadrist Delegation">No Comments</a></span> Posted on May 25th, 2010 by Erdla</div> <h3><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/25/al-maliki-discusses-government-formation-with-sadrist-delegation/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Al-Maliki discusses government formation with Sadrist Delegation">Al-Maliki discusses government formation with Sadrist Delegation</a></h3> <p class="postmetadata">Category: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/category/english-articles/" title="View all posts in English Language Articles" rel="category tag">English Language Articles</a>, Tags: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/abdulsatar-al-biatti/" rel="tag">Abdulsatar al-Biatti</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/al-ahrar-party-sadrists/" rel="tag">Al-Ahrar Party (Sadrists)</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/aswat-al-iraq/" rel="tag">Aswat Al Iraq</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/dawa-party/" rel="tag">Dawa Party</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/government-formation/" rel="tag">government formation</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/ina/" rel="tag">INA</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/karar-al-khafaji/" rel="tag">Karar al-Khafaji</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/maliki-nouri-al/" rel="tag">Maliki - Nouri al-</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/nasser-al-rubaie/" rel="tag">Nasser al-Rubaie</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/nouri-al-maliki/" rel="tag">nouri al maliki</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/political-negotiations/" rel="tag">political negotiations</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/qusay-abdul-wahab/" rel="tag">Qusay Abdul Wahab</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/sadr-city/" rel="tag">Sadr City</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/sadrist-bloc/" rel="tag">Sadrist Bloc</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/sadrist-political-council/" rel="tag">Sadrist political council</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/state-of-law-coalition/" rel="tag">State of Law Coalition</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/%d9%85%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%af%d8%b1%e2%80%8e/" rel="tag">مدينة الصدر‎</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%af%d8%b1/" rel="tag">حركة الصدر</a></p> <div class="entry" dir="rtl" align="right"> <blockquote><p><span style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 42px; float: left; margin: 1px 1px 0px 0px; line-height: 36px; font-style: normal! important">T</span>he out going Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki ,received on Monday a delegation from al-Sadr Movement and discussed the possibilities of forming the new Iraqi Government.</p> <p>“The delegation which consisted of the Head of the political bureau for the al-Sadr Movement Karrar al-Khafaji, Nassar al-Rubaee, Qusai Abdulwahab and Abdulsatar al-Biatti, have met with al-Maliki and discussed the possibilities of forming a new government and the ongoing dialogues between the State of Law Alliance, and the Iraqi National Coalition,”said a statement issued by al-Maliki’s office and received by Aswat Aliraq.</p> <p>The meeting also discussed the cooperation and coordination between both the Islamic Dawa Party and al-Sadr Movement within the political process frame and the formation of the new Iraqi government.</p> <p>In a joint press conference that was held after the meeting, al-Maliki said that the two sides “exchanged views within the ongoing efforts to form the government, as well as the bilateral relation between both the Islamic Dawa Party and al-Sadr Movement,” because they both belong to the same school, according to his description.</p> <p>“We need to revise and overcome all the crises that affect the relation between both parties, as well as strengthening the mutual partnership in order to rebuild the new Iraq, and also to demonstrate the ability of the oppressed people to live and work to rebuild the country,’ al-Maliki noted.</p> <p>In a question asked about the violence that raised sectarian strife in Sadr City (east of Baghdadad), al-Maliki said, “When partners get close, both the al-Qaeda and al-Baath Party start a sectarian violence, and when we succeeded to kill al-Qaeda leader, Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi, we found reports confirming their efforts to increase sectarian strife, and other reports indicating that as long as al-Maliki is in power it will be difficult to raise it.”</p> <p>He also praised the Sadrists for refusing to get motivated by the attempts of killing their Sunni brothers as well as the plans of both al-Qaeda and al-Baath Party to inflame sectarian strife.”</p> <p>On his part, Qusay Abdulwahab said that “the meeting of today has discussed the dialogues between the Sadr Movement and other political blocs to form the new government by the two alliances.”</p> <p>He added that “the meeting with al-Maliki, as the head of State of Law Coalition has discussed the candidates for the post of prime Minister, without accepting or rejecting to any of these candidates.”</p> <p>“These meetings between al-Sadr Movement and the Islamic Dawa Party are still going on, because both parties belong to the same roots, and the relation between them will not be affected by the political changes, and this relation has to be developed, and the Sadr School is considered important in the political reconstruction of the country,” Abdulwahab Said.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Source:</strong> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=132216" class="external" target="_blank">Al-Maliki discusses new government with Sadrist : Aswat Al Iraq</a></p> </div> </div> <hr/> <div class="post clearfix" id="post-10614"> <div class="postmetadata"><span class="comments"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/19/19th-may-2010-selected-english-language-coverage/#respond" title="Comment on 19th May-2010 Selected English Language Coverage">No Comments</a></span> Posted on May 19th, 2010 by Saba Ali</div> <h3><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/19/19th-may-2010-selected-english-language-coverage/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to 19th May-2010 Selected English Language Coverage">19th May-2010 Selected English Language Coverage</a></h3> <p class="postmetadata">Category: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/category/english-articles/" title="View all posts in English Language Articles" rel="category tag">English Language Articles</a>, Tags: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/al-qaeda/" rel="tag">Al Qaeda</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/algeria/" rel="tag">Algeria</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/america/" rel="tag">America</a>, <a 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rel="tag">ministry of finance</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/northern-iraq/" rel="tag">northern iraq</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/oil/" rel="tag">oil</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/oil-exports/" rel="tag">oil exports</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/oil-ministry/" rel="tag">Oil Ministry</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/refugees/" rel="tag">Refugees</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/rehabilitation/" rel="tag">rehabilitation</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/returnees/" rel="tag">returnees</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/rice/" rel="tag">rice</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/royal-dutch-shell/" rel="tag">Royal Dutch Shell</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/sanctions/" rel="tag">Sanctions</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/sanitation/" rel="tag">sanitation</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/society-and-economy/" rel="tag">Society And Economy</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/southern-iraq/" rel="tag">southern iraq</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/summaries/" rel="tag">Summaries</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/unhcr/" rel="tag">UNHCR</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/violence/" rel="tag">violence</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/western-investment/" rel="tag">western investment</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/wfp/" rel="tag">WFP</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/who/" rel="tag">WHO</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/world-food-programme/" rel="tag">World Food Programme</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/xinhua/" rel="tag">Xinhua</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/xinhua-reports/" rel="tag">xinhua reports</a></p> <div class="entry" dir="rtl" align="right"> <p>I have concentrated on social and economic issues in selecing articles from English language coverage of Irak. The UN via its World Food Programme hopes to kickstart the labour market as well as reduce food insecurity by running a cash-for-work programme. If the programme succeeds it will be expanded. As my colleague Diya al din reported on May 14th (<span dir="rtl" align="right"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/14/%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d8%ae%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%85%d9%8a-%d9%84%d9%807-%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%8a%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%b9%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%82%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%a7/">دراسة: الدخل اليومي لـ7 ملايين عراقي لا يتجاوز الدولارين | Gorilla’s Guides</a> </span>) more than seven million people have to try to live on the equivalent of US$2 per day so such programmes are desperately needed.</p> <p>The National has a long article on the new airport in Erbil. The context of all of this is that the Kurdish Regional Government hope to use any revenues from this project as a boost to their arguments for increased autonomy eventually perhaps leading to independence.</p> <p>Xinhua reports on the agreement to allow Kurdish oil exports to resume. </p> <p>If you read nothing else read The National’s report  <em>"<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100519/BUSINESS/705199937/1005/rss" class="external" target="_blank">Chinese oil firms make friends abroad</a>" </em>on a day on which the USA has managed to get further sanctions on on Iran the paragraphs below are especially worth bearing in mind:</p> <blockquote><p>Until recently, China’s state-controlled oil companies have had limited success in gaining access to the region’s biggest oil and gas deposits, and to the rapidly expanding local markets for oil and gas.</p> <p>That is mainly because the national oil companies of major Gulf oil exporters were seeking access to technology only available from the West. The Chinese oil producers, however, were able to establish a beachhead in Iran, as the US-led sanctions against the country discouraged western investment.</p> </blockquote> <p>Finally I have included an article by Kirk W. Johnson on how as the US draws down it is stabbing its local collaborators in the back by leaving them to their own devices.</p> <blockquote><p>We know where this road leads. When British forces drew down from southern Iraq just two years ago, militias conducted a systematic manhunt for their former Iraqi employees.</p> </blockquote> <p>What Johnson, who is after all an American, fails to see is that it’s not only militias and <em>takfiri</em> groups who will be after these collaborators. There is universal loathing for them as traitrors who sided with a hated invader against their own country and their own people. When the Americans leave many of their collaborators’ survival prospects will be dismal indeed.</p> <p style="padding-bottom: 1em; border-bottom: gray 1px solid">Saba Ali</p> <h3 style="color: #800000">Society and Economy:</h3> <p><strong>UN agency kicks off first cash-for-work initiative in Iraq</strong><strong>: </strong></p> <blockquote><p>19 May 2010 – The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) today launched a cash-for-work initiative to help poor Iraqis earn money to provide food for their families. </p> <p>“While there’s food in the shops, not everyone can afford it and nearly a million people still need food assistance and millions more depend on government aid,” WFP Country Director Edward Kallon said. </p> <p>“Cash-for-work projects are an innovative way to provide a much-needed influx of cash to poor communities who struggle to make ends meet and provide food for their families,” he added. “They are appropriate when food is readily available in the markets but out of their reach.” </p> <p>Participants in the programme will be paid the equivalent of $10 per day for a three-month period for carrying out tasks such as clearing and rehabilitation of sewage and irrigation canals, tree planting, rehabilitation of farmland and a sanitation campaign. </p> <p>While beneficiaries will initially be paid in cash on a weekly basis, WFP is exploring the possible use of electronic technology, such as smart cards, to facilitate payments and reduce security risks in future programmes. </p> <p>Some 1,400 households will be involved in the pilot project which will be carried out in the central Iraqi governorate of Diyala with the help of WFP’s partner organization, Mercy Corps. </p> <p>The cash-for-work project is part of the Diyala Initiative to provide assistance to facilitate the resettlement of internally displaced persons (IDPs), returnees and other vulnerable groups. </p> <p>That effort is being led by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), with the participation of several other UN and partner agencies.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=34742&Cr=Iraq&Cr1=" class="external" target="_blank">read in full</a></strong><strong>: </strong> </p> </blockquote> <p> <strong>Airlines may put Erbil on the map – The National Newspaper</strong><strong>: </strong><br/> <blockquote> <p>ERBIL, IRAQ // The UAE Government hopes flydubai and Air Arabia will join Etihad Airways in flying to Iraqi Kurdistan this year as companies look to benefit from the region’s attempt to attract tourists. </p> <p><em>snip</em></p> <p>Built to handle 3 million passengers a year, the new terminal can handle wide-body Airbus A380s as well as other aircraft types and will offer the least expensive airline fuel in the world, he said. </p> <p><em>snip</em></p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100519/BUSINESS/705199959/1005/rss" class="external" target="_blank">read in full</a></strong><strong>: </strong></p> </blockquote> <p> <strong>Iraq approves agreement to resume Kurdish oil exports</strong><strong>: Xinhua</strong><br/> <blockquote> <p>BAGHDAD, May 19 (Xinhua) — The Iraqi government said it has approved an agreement that would allow the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern part of the country to resume oil exports, an Iraqi newspaper said on Wednesday. </p> <p>The agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) stated that the Ministry of Finance in Baghdad will pay the foreign oil firms operating in Iraqi Kurdish region their expenses, the al-Mashriq newspaper quoted government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh as saying. </p> <p>Since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, the Kurds have independently signed nearly two dozen deals with western oil companies. Baghdad maintains the deals are illegitimate because they bypass the central government. </p> <p>In June 2009, the KRG started oil exports of around 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the oil fields of Taq Taq and Tawke in northern Iraq, but were suspended a few months later when the central government refused to pay the foreign firms and said the Kurds should pay from their share of the national budget. </p> <p>The latest agreement will pave the way for the KRG to resume oil exports through the national pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, the paper said without setting a date for resuming the exports.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-05/19/c_13303988.htm" class="external" target="_blank">read in full</a></strong><strong>: Xinhua</strong></p> </blockquote> <p> <strong>Iraq exports 53 million barrels of oil in April – People’s Daily Online</strong><strong>: </strong><br/> <blockquote> <p>Iraqi Oil Ministry said Tuesday it has exported 53 million barrels of oil in April, bringing in revenues of 4.222 billion U.S. dollars with an average price of 79. 66 dollars a barrel. </p> <p>A statement by the ministry obtained by Xinhua said that 42.7 million barrels were exported through the southern port of Basra, and 10.3 million barrels were exported via Turkey’s port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. </p> <p>In March, the ministry said the country exported 57.1 million barrels of oil, gaining revenues of 4.351 billion dollars.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/90854/6989885.html" class="external" target="_blank">read in full</a></strong><strong>: </strong></p> </blockquote> <p> <strong>Chinese oil firms make friends abroad – The National Newspaper</strong><strong>: </strong><br/> <blockquote> <p>The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has acquired 35 per cent of the Syrian oil and gas unit of Royal Dutch Shell, which could help boost Chinese access to some of the world’s biggest oil reserves. </p> <p>The Syrian accord, which is worth an estimated US$1.5 billion (Dh5.51bn), in itself is unlikely to boost crude reserves significantly for either company. Instead, it may be aimed at strengthening ties between China’s biggest producer and international oil companies including Shell, as Beijing seeks to expand its presence throughout the Middle East. </p> <p>Yesterday’s deal would increase CNPC’s existing holdings in three oil and gas production licences covering 40 small fields. Last year, Syria Shell Petroleum Development pumped 23,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from those fields. </p> <p>“This is not a lot of oil and gas for a company like CNPC, which is producing about 2.5 million barrels a day,” Gordon Kwan, the head of energy research at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg yesterday. </p> <p>“The agreement strengthens the partnership between Shell and CNPC,” the Chinese company said. </p> <p>Until recently, China’s state-controlled oil companies have had limited success in gaining access to the region’s biggest oil and gas deposits, and to the rapidly expanding local markets for oil and gas. </p> <p>That is mainly because the national oil companies of major Gulf oil exporters were seeking access to technology only available from the West. The Chinese oil producers, however, were able to establish a beachhead in Iran, as the US-led sanctions against the country discouraged western investment. </p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100519/BUSINESS/705199937/1005/rss" class="external" target="_blank">read in full</a></strong><strong>: </strong></p> </blockquote> <p><strong></strong></p> <h3 style="color: #800000">Commentary and Analysis</h3> <p> <strong>Foreign Policy: Leaving Iraqi Employees Behind : NPR</strong><strong>: </strong><br/> <blockquote> <p>There are no serious contingency plans to evacuate the thousands of Iraqis who’ve worked for the United States and live alongside U.S. troops and civilian officials as interpreters, engineers, and advisors. When the U.S. military shutters its bases, these Iraqis will be cut loose to run the resettlement gauntlet, which typically takes a year or more. </p> <p>I recently came across a frightening document that outlines another group’s designs for the coming U.S. withdrawal. Published in Fallujah by the Islamic State of Iraq, the umbrella organization composed of numerous insurgent and terrorist groups (including al Qaeda in Iraq), the manual sets forth their "balanced military plan" in chilling simplicity: "1) nine bullets for the traitors and one for the crusader, 2) cleansing, and 3) targeting." They are practical: "This cannot be accomplished within one or two months, but requires continuous effort." Those who believe the group’s threats have been rendered hollow by the surge might reflect upon the scores of victims from its triple-suicide car bombing that targeted foreign embassies just weeks ago. This past Friday, upon a string of attacks that killed another hundred Iraqis, the group’s "minister of war" declared: "What is happening to you nowadays is just a drizzle." </p> <p>We know where this road leads. When British forces drew down from southern Iraq just two years ago, militias conducted a systematic manhunt for their former Iraqi employees. Seventeen interpreters were publicly executed in a single massacre; their bodies were dumped throughout the streets of Basra. This predictable churn of violence against those who "collaborated" with an occupying power has been repeated through history, from the tens of thousands of Algerian harkis who were slaughtered after the 1962 French withdrawal to the British loyalists hunted by American militias after the Revolutionary War. </p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126971991&ft=1&f=1057" class="external" target="_blank">read in full</a></strong><strong>: </strong></p> </blockquote> </div> </div> <hr/> <div class="post clearfix" id="post-10604"> <div class="postmetadata"><span class="comments"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/19/qa-iraq-had-elections-so-why-isnt-there-a-new-government-mcclatchy/#respond" title="Comment on Q&A: Iraq had elections, so why isn’t there a new government? | McClatchy">No Comments</a></span> Posted on May 19th, 2010 by Nur Hussein Ghazali</div> <h3><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/19/qa-iraq-had-elections-so-why-isnt-there-a-new-government-mcclatchy/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Q&A: Iraq had elections, so why isn’t there a new government? | McClatchy">Q&A: Iraq had elections, so why isn’t there a new government? | McClatchy</a></h3> <p class="postmetadata">Category: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/category/english-articles/" title="View all posts in English Language Articles" rel="category tag">English Language Articles</a>, Tags: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/ahmad-chalabi/" rel="tag">Ahmad Chalabi</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/al-sadr/" rel="tag">al sadr</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/allawi/" rel="tag">Allawi</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/arabs/" rel="tag">Arabs</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/baath/" rel="tag">Ba'ath</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/baath-party/" rel="tag">baath party</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/baathists/" rel="tag">baathists</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/bombings/" rel="tag">Bombings</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/caretaker-government/" rel="tag">caretaker government</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/chalabi-ahmed/" rel="tag">Chalabi - Ahmed</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/constitution/" rel="tag">Constitution</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/debaathification-laws-abuse-of/" rel="tag">DeBa'athification laws - abuse of</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/election-commission/" rel="tag">election commission</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/election-results/" rel="tag">election results</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/elections/" rel="tag">Elections</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/ina/" rel="tag">INA</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/invasion/" rel="tag">invasion</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/iraki-national-list-bloc/" rel="tag">Iraki National List Bloc</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/iraqiya-list/" rel="tag">Iraqiya list</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/iyad-allawi/" rel="tag">Iyad Allawi</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/kirkuk/" rel="tag">Kirkuk</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/kurdish-parties/" rel="tag">kurdish parties</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/kurdish-separatism-resistance-to/" rel="tag">Kurdish Separatism - resistance to</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/kurdistan/" rel="tag">Kurdistan</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/muqtada-al-sadr/" rel="tag">Muqtada al-Sadr</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/nia/" rel="tag">NIA</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/nouri-al-maliki/" rel="tag">nouri al maliki</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/occupation/" rel="tag">occupation</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/oil/" rel="tag">oil</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/parliamentary-election/" rel="tag">parliamentary election</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/parliamentary-elections/" rel="tag">parliamentary elections</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/political-negotiations/" rel="tag">political negotiations</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/political-paralysis/" rel="tag">political paralysis</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/presidency/" rel="tag">presidency</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/prisoners/" rel="tag">prisoners</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/ramadan/" rel="tag">Ramadan</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/sadrist-bloc/" rel="tag">Sadrist Bloc</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/speaker/" rel="tag">Speaker</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/state-of-law-coalition/" rel="tag">State of Law Coalition</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/state-of-law-coalition-vs-sadrists/" rel="tag">State of Law Coalition vs Sadrists</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/state-of-law-coalition-vs-iraqiya-list/" rel="tag">State of Law Coalition vs. Iraqiya list</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/tehran/" rel="tag">Tehran</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%af%d8%b1/" rel="tag">حركة الصدر</a></p> <div class="entry" dir="rtl" align="right"> <p> </p> <blockquote><p>BAGHDAD, Iraq — Millions of Iraqi voters defied bombings and intimidation to cast ballots in the country’s March 7 parliamentary election, which was billed as historic because it was the first since the U.S.-led invasion of 2003 to be organized, carried out and secured by Iraqis.</p> <p>The excitement of Election Day wore off quickly, however, and the country’s been locked in a state of political paralysis ever since as its top politicians battle to control the next government.</p> <p>The results were an upset: Secular Shiite Muslim politician Ayad Allawi’s bloc won more seats in parliament than favored incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, a conservative Shiite, did. The margin was so close, however, that political maneuvering to change the results has delayed the seating of a new government.</p> <p>Here’s a look at where the election results stand, what happens next and when a new government might take shape in Baghdad.</p> <p>Q: Have the major players changed since election day?</p> <p>A: Not much. The main blocs are still Allawi’s Iraqiya, a mixed-sect ticket with broad Sunni support; Maliki’s State of Law, mostly from his conservative Shiite Dawa Party; the Iraqi National Alliance, the main religious Shiite grouping of Iranian-backed parties, including politicians loyal to militant cleric Muqtada al Sadr.</p> <p>The two main Kurdish parties ran on a single ticket as the Kurdistan Alliance. An upstart Kurdish opposition party, Gorran, won some seats, as well.</p> <p>Q: One of the first snags was an attempt to disqualify some winning candidates by accusing them of ties to the late dictator Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party. Did they lose their seats?</p> <p>A: There were several rounds of de-Baathification, the controversial process of rooting out former Baathists and barring them from public service. Former exile and Bush administration ally Ahmad Chalabi and his deputy Ali al Lami, who both ran in the elections, oversaw the purges.</p> <p>Hundreds of candidates were eliminated, but an Iraqi court Monday ruled in favor of nine victorious candidates whose cases were in dispute. Those candidates are expected to take their seats in the next parliament.</p> <p>Q: Maliki rejected the election commission’s results and demanded a partial recount. Did the recount uncover fraud or change the results?</p> <p>A: At Maliki’s insistence, a court ruled that the election commission should conduct a recount, but only in Baghdad province. The recount uncovered no major fraud and didn’t alter Allawi’s Iraqiya bloc’s slight lead.</p> <p>Q: OK, so now the recount is over and the de-Baathification efforts have been suspended. What’s next?</p> <p>A: The next step is for Iraq’s top court to certify the final election results, which would start the clock on forming a government in accordance with the Iraqi constitution. The chief delay now is the intense, behind-the-scenes haggling over who’ll get the prime minister’s post and other key positions. With no group winning an outright majority, alliances are starting to take shape.</p> <p>For now, it looks as if Maliki’s State of Law and the Shiite-dominated Iraqi National Alliance are pairing up to challenge Allawi’s group for a majority in parliament. However, the Sadrists, a backbone of the Alliance, have long opposed Maliki as premier, which jeopardizes cooperation between the two groups.</p> <p>Also, there’s growing concern that cutting out Allawi, whose bloc was the nation’s top vote-getter, would be unacceptable to millions of Iraqis who voted for him, especially the Sunni minority.</p> <p>Q. What do ordinary Iraqis think?</p> <p>A. The word on the street is similar to the criticism from political quarters: The leadership is too busy guarding its own interests to pay attention to the security and other needs of ordinary citizens.</p> <p>With so many government offices in limbo, Iraqis say, everyday aspects of life have slowed to a halt: obtaining passports, approving state jobs, road and utility repairs, awarding contracts, to name just a few.</p> <p>The longer and bloodier this transition becomes, the more Iraqis begin to question their participation in the democratic process.</p> <p>Q. So when can we expect to see a new government?</p> <p>A. It’s hard to say. Maliki has predicted that it won’t take longer than July. Foreign diplomats speculate it’ll be sometime this summer; religious authorities hope things will be resolved in time for the holy month of Ramadan, which begins in August; and other political observers fear that it could last into the fall.</p> <p>Q. What are some of the main points of negotiation among all these blocs?</p> <p>A. Each bloc holds some powerful cards. Allawi’s bloc is the top vote getter, has the most Sunni support and is looked upon favorably by both the Americans and Iraq’s Arab neighbors. Maliki also won a huge number of votes, is the incumbent and has branded himself with some success as a nationalist.</p> <p>The chief kingmakers are the Sadrists, who want hundreds of their prisoners released and some senior cabinet posts, and the Kurds, who are insisting on keeping the presidency, gaining control of oil-rich Kirkuk and other territories that Sunni Arabs also claim, and holding cabinet positions in numbers that are proportionate to the Kurdish population.</p> <p>Q. What’s the role of the Americans, the Iranians and other foreign powers with vested interests in the outcome of the Iraqi elections?</p> <p>A. Both the Americans and Iranians have played it cool publicly, while meeting privately with all the key players.</p> <p>The Americans prefer a government that includes Sunnis and other minorities and is diverse enough to act as a spoiler to outright Iranian control.</p> <p>The Iranians, who have numerous allies and agents in Iraq, would like to see a continuation of Tehran-friendly, Shiite-dominated government, though some Iranian officials have said that some of Allawi’s allies must be included in order to work toward a more stable Iraq.</p> <p>Q. Who’s in charge while all these negotiations are going on? Are there limitations on the caretaker government?</p> <p>A. Maliki’s administration is carrying on with business as usual, but absent a parliament, the government cannot enter into international treaties, declare war or make any other major decisions that normally would require parliamentary approval.</p> <p>Q. Are there constitutional mechanisms to ensure that the paralysis doesn’t last forever?</p> <p>A. Yes. However, the current government found loopholes after the last parliamentary elections in 2005. For example, the constitution calls for the naming of a speaker of parliament in the legislature’s first session. To get around this and buy more time, the last parliament simply called a session to order and didn’t adjourn it for several weeks.</p> <p>Strictly speaking, once the top court certifies the election results, the parliament must convene within 15 days. In the first session, the members are required to choose a speaker and two deputy speakers. After that, they’re supposed to name the Iraqi president, though the constitution doesn’t specify a timeline.</p> <p>Once a president is elected by parliament, the president has 15 days to ask the nominee of the largest bloc in parliament to form a government within a month. If that fails, the president can ask another candidate from any bloc to try.</p> <p>Q. Will the delay in forming a government affect security in Iraq?</p> <p>A. Many Iraqis, including members of the current parliament, argue that the delay already has chipped away at security.</p> <p>In the aftermath of a series of devastating bombings, including a day when attacks killed more than 100 people, some Iraqi politicians said that militants were taking advantage of the security void, which they blamed on the Iraqi leadership’s preoccupation with political negotiations.</p> </blockquote> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/05/18/v-print/94397/qa-iraq-had-elections-so-why-isnt.html" class="external" target="_blank">Q&A: Iraq had elections, so why isn’t there a new government? | McClatchy</a></p> </div> </div> <hr/> <div class="post clearfix" id="post-10545"> <div class="postmetadata"><span class="comments"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/16/16th-may-2010-selected-english-language-coverage/#respond" title="Comment on 16th-May-2010 Selected English Language Coverage">No Comments</a></span> Posted on May 16th, 2010 by Ra'ed Al-Bayati</div> <h3><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/16/16th-may-2010-selected-english-language-coverage/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to 16th-May-2010 Selected English Language Coverage">16th-May-2010 Selected English Language Coverage</a></h3> <p class="postmetadata">Category: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/category/english-articles/" title="View all posts in English Language Articles" rel="category tag">English Language Articles</a>, Tags: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/al-jazeera-english/" rel="tag">al jazeera english</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/azzaman/" rel="tag">azzaman</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/baghdad/" rel="tag">Baghdad</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/barzani/" rel="tag">Barzani</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/bp/" rel="tag">BP</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/constitution/" rel="tag">Constitution</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/economy/" rel="tag">Economy</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/election-recount/" rel="tag">Election Recount</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/electoral-commission/" rel="tag">Electoral Commission</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/government-formation/" rel="tag">government formation</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/ina/" rel="tag">INA</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/iraqiya-coalition/" rel="tag">Iraqiya coalition</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/iyad-allawi/" rel="tag">Iyad Allawi</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/jalal-talabani/" rel="tag">Jalal Talabani</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/jordan/" rel="tag">Jordan</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/kirkuk/" rel="tag">Kirkuk</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/krg/" rel="tag">KRG</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/kurdistan/" rel="tag">Kurdistan</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/kurdistan-democratic-party/" rel="tag">kurdistan democratic party</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/kurdistan-regional-government/" rel="tag">kurdistan regional government</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/major-general-babakir-zebari/" rel="tag">Major General Babakir Zebari</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/maysan/" rel="tag">maysan</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/militias/" rel="tag">Militias</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/nassiriyah/" rel="tag">Nassiriyah</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/newspaper-summaries/" rel="tag">Newspaper summaries</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/oil/" rel="tag">oil</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/oil-ministry/" rel="tag">Oil Ministry</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/oil-production/" rel="tag">oil production</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/political-negotiations/" rel="tag">political negotiations</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/politics-and-security/" rel="tag">Politics and Security</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/rabia/" rel="tag">Rabia</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/resources/" rel="tag">Resources</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/reuters/" rel="tag">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/reuters-alertnet/" rel="tag">reuters alertnet</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/sinochem/" rel="tag">sinochem</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/state-of-law-coalition/" rel="tag">State of Law Coalition</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/summaries/" rel="tag">Summaries</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/turkey/" rel="tag">Turkey</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/xinhua/" rel="tag">Xinhua</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/zebari-major-general-babacar/" rel="tag">Zebari - Major General Babacar</a></p> <div class="entry" dir="rtl" align="right"> <p>I’ve selected a few articles on the recount results being announced and have also selected Reuters’ very useful "factbox" on the steps and deadlines in the government formation process. The Turkish paper "Today’s Zaman" carried a long report on KRG leader Massoud Barzani’s visit to Ankara. Briefly the paper says that a rapprochement with KRG is part of Turkey’s attempts to solve it’s own "Kurdish problem" the article is well worth reading in full. </p> <p>Xinhua’s report on the al-Qaeda affiliated ISI’s choosing new leadership ends with this sharp piece of commentary:</p> <blockquote><p>The nominations of new al-Qaida leaders came after the killing of the two top al-Qaida leaders Abu Ayyub al-Musri and Abu Omer al- Baghdadi in a military operation by Iraqi and U.S. forces last month.</p> <p>Both Iraqi and U.S. officials said the killing of the two men dealt a big blow to al-Qaida in the war-torn country. However, major attacks continued across the country, leaving hundreds dead in the past several weeks</p> </blockquote> <p>Al Zaman’s English edition reports on General Babacer Zebari’s statement that 11 senior al-Qaeda commanders are still at large in Irak. The paper points out that the GZG blames almost all violence in the country on Qaeda bu that analysts and senior government officials say rival political factions with heavily armed militias are also to blame.</p> <p>On the economic front the United Arab Emirates newspaper "The National"  reports that the Chinese state-controlled petroleum company Sinochem has quit the Maysan oilfield project the article is long but it too will repay the time you spend reading it in full.</p> <p style="padding-bottom: 1em; border-bottom: gray 1px solid"><em>Raed</em></p> <h3 style="color: #800000">The Day In Quotes:</h3> <p><strong>Independent High Electoral Commission Qassim al-Abboudi to Xinhua on the result of the Baghdad recount:</strong></p> <blockquote><p>"There is no change in the numbers of seats of any political entity by the re-count of votes of Baghdad province,"</p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-05/16/c_13297567.htm" class="external" target="_blank"><strong>source</strong></a></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Independent High Electoral Commission Qassim al-Abboudi to AP on the result of the Baghdad recount</strong><strong>: </strong></p> <blockquote><p>"I hope that all political blocks are satisfied now that the electoral process was honest and all allegations of fraud and forgery were totally incorrect".</p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37173752/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/" class="external" target="_blank">Source</a></strong><strong>: </strong></p> </blockquote> <h3 style="color: #800000">Politics and Security</h3> <div style="border-right: lightgrey 1px solid; padding-right: 5px; border-top: lightgrey 1px solid; padding-left: 5px; float: right; padding-bottom: 5px; margin: 5px 0px 5px 15px; border-left: lightgrey 1px solid; width: 285px; padding-top: 5px; border-bottom: lightgrey 1px solid"> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.reuters.com/" class="external" target="_blank">Reuters</a> have a guide to the "steps in Iraq’s crawl towards a government which I reproduce in full below:</p> <p><strong>Reuters AlertNet – FACTBOX-Deadlines, steps in Iraq’s crawl towards a government</strong><strong>: </strong></p> <blockquote><p>REUTERS – A recount of votes cast in Baghdad did not change the results of Iraq’s March 7 election, leaving intact the two-seat lead of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s cross-sectarian Iraqiya coalition.</p> <p>Because no coalition won enough seats for a majority in parliament, weeks of political negotiations may be needed before the formation of a new government.</p> <p>Here are the next official steps and constitutional deadlines as Iraq’s fledgling democracy crawls toward establishing its next government:</p> <p>* The Independent High Electoral Commission said it would publish the preliminary results on Monday and objectors would have three days to file complaints before the results could be sent to a court for final certification.</p> <p>* The supreme court has no deadline for certifying the results but election officials said they did not expect a long delay. The court has been considering the results from 17 other provinces, excluding Baghdad, for several days already.</p> <p>* President Jalal Talabani must call on the new parliament to convene within 15 days from the date of the certification of the election results.</p> <p>* The oldest member of the Council of Representatives chairs the first session, in which members have a maximum of 15 days to elect a speaker and two deputies.</p> <p>* The council elects a new president within 30 days of its first session.</p> <p>* The new president has 15 days to ask the largest bloc in parliament to try to form a government and choose a prime minister.</p> <p>* The prime minister-designate must form a governing coalition and name a cabinet, or Council of Ministers, within 30 days.</p> <p>* If the prime minister-designate fails to pick a cabinet in the required time, the president has 15 days to nominate someone else to try to form a government.</p> <p>* The new prime minister designate has 30 days to try to form a governing coalition and council of ministers.</p> <p>* A new government is deemed to have been formed when a prime minister’s cabinet nominees and their programmes win the approval of an absolute majority of the members of the Council of Representatives, or parliament.</p> <p>SOURCE: Iraqi constitution, election officials </p> <p>(Reporting by Waleed Ibrahim, Muhanad Mohammed and Ahmed Rasheed, editing by Jim Loney)<strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE64F0C6.htm" class="external" target="_blank">Source</a></strong><strong>: </strong></p> </blockquote></div> <p><strong>Iraq election recount confirms Iyad Allawi victory | World news | The Guardian</strong><strong>: </strong></p> <blockquote><p>A recount of votes in Iraq’s general election did not change the allocation of seats, officials said today, leaving the cross-sectarian coalition led by Iyad Allawi with the biggest parliamentary presence.</p> <p>The secularist former prime minister Allawi’s Iraqiya bloc, supported heavily by Iraq’s minority Sunnis, won 91 seats in the 7 March vote, edging out the mainly Shia State of Law coalition led by the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, which won 89.</p> <p>Allawi has insisted that winning the close election should give him the first opportunity to form a new government, but Maliki’s bloc has already announced an alliance with the Shia Iraqi National Alliance, which polled third, to form the largest grouping in parliament.</p> <p>The Shia-dominated alliance could push Allawi to the sidelines and anger Sunnis who supported Iraqiya, raising concerns about a potential revival of sectarian conflict as US troops prepare to end combat operations in Iraq by 1 September.</p> <p>The recount of 2.5m votes in Baghdad left intact Allawi’s two-seat lead. "There is a change, but not a significant change, for the [candidates] inside the blocs. … The number of the seats stays as is," said Saad al-Rawi, one of nine commissioners on the Independent High Electoral Commission. </p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/16/iraq-election-recount" class="external" target="_blank"><strong>Read in full</strong></a><strong>: </strong></p> <p><em>See also: </em><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://english.aljazeera.net//news/middleeast/2010/05/201051615121968150.html" class="external" target="_blank"><strong>Al Jazeera English – Middle East – Result unchanged after Iraq recount</strong></a><strong>:</strong></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds: From Red Lines to Red Carpets</strong><strong>: Today’s Zaman</strong></p> <blockquote><p>If all goes to plan Massoud Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will be paying his first official visit to Turkey next month. <br/>The decision to invite the Kurdish leader is in line with recent moves designed to end over a decade of hostility between Ankara and the Iraqi Kurdish leadership. Friendship with the Iraqi Kurds is one of the main pillars of Turkey’s attempts to solve its long-running Kurdish problem.</p> <p>Until recently Barzani, who is also the leader of the most powerful Iraqi Kurdish faction, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), was firmly embedded in Turkey’s official gallery of rogues. He was derided as a cocky tribal upstart who emboldened by U.S. support was accused of plotting against Turkey. Turkey’s hawkish generals would ever so often warn against the “red lines” that Barzani must not breach. “Don’t try to grab Kirkuk” or else… Don’t think about independence or else…” The subtext was that Turkey would invade the Kurdish controlled enclave. A defiant Barzani vowed to fight back. The potential for conflict between a critical NATO ally, Turkey, and its Kurdish friends in Iraq was long a source of worry in Washington. Now the red lines are fading. Turkey is preparing to roll out the red carpet for Barzani. The Kurds’ internationally respected leader is expected to meet with Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and perhaps even with President Abdullah Gül.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-210325-100-turkey-and-the-iraqi-kurds-from-red-lines-to-red-carpets.html" class="external" target="_blank">read in full</a></strong><strong>:</strong></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Qaida group in Iraq nominates new top leaders</strong><strong>: Xinhua</strong></p> <blockquote><p>BAGHDAD, May 16 (Xinhua) — Al-Qaida in Iraq insurgent group announced Sunday it has nominated new top leaders for its self- styled Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), the group said in a statement posted on the internet.</p> <p>The Mujahdeen Shura Council (MSC), which is an al-Qaida-led umbrella organization of extremist Sunni militant groups, said it has chosen Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi al-Hussieni al-Quraishi as the emir, or leader of the "believers" to be the head of the ISI.</p> <p>The statement said that the MSC also nominated Abu Abdullah al- Hassani al-Quraishi as first minister and deputy for Abu Bakr al- Quraishi.</p> <p>On Friday, the MSC nominated al-Nasser Lideen Allah Abu Suleiman as its "minister of war" for the ISI, who vowed to continue deadly attacks with "dark days in blood color."</p> <p>The nominations of new al-Qaida leaders came after the killing of the two top al-Qaida leaders Abu Ayyub al-Musri and Abu Omer al- Baghdadi in a military operation by Iraqi and U.S. forces last month.</p> <p>Both Iraqi and U.S. officials said the killing of the two men dealt a big blow to al-Qaida in the war-torn country. However, major attacks continued across the country, leaving hundreds dead in the past several weeks.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-05/16/c_13297379.htm" class="external" target="_blank">Source</a></strong><strong>: </strong></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>11 Qaeda commanders still at large in Iraq, senior military officer says</strong><strong>:  | Azzaman in English</strong></p> <blockquote><p>Iraqi security troops have killed 32 out of 43 Qaeda commanders in the country, said Lt. Gen. Babaker Zaibari.</p> <p>Zaibari, who is Iraqi Chiefs of Staff Chairman, said there were 11 more senior Qaeda commanders at large “and their presence constitutes a security threat.”</p> <p>The Iraqi government blames almost all violence in the country on Qaeda but analysts and senior government officials say rival political factions with heavily armed militias are also to blame.</p> <p>They say some political factions with their unruly militias are embroiled in a bitter struggle and battle of liquidation of opponents.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.azzaman.com/english/index.asp?fname=news%5C2010-05-15%5Ckurd.htm" class="external" target="_blank">Read in full</a></strong><strong>:</strong></p> </blockquote> <h3 style="color: #800000">Society and Economy:</h3> <blockquote> </blockquote> <p><strong>Sinochem exits Iraq oilfield deal – The National Newspaper</strong><strong>: </strong></p> <blockquote><p>A Chinese state-controlled petroleum company has quit an Iraqi oil project, voting with its feet against the scant returns on investment offered by Baghdad.</p> <p>Despite the undoubted importance of Iraq’s oil resources to China, which already imports significant volumes of Iraqi crude to fuel its economy, Sinochem International has withdrawn from a consortium led by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) to develop the Missan oilfield complex in the south-east of Iraq. <br/>“Sinochem was not interested in the deal,” Abdul al Ameedi, the director of the licensing and contracting office of the Iraqi oil ministry, told Reuters.</p> <p>The withdrawal from one of a dozen big oil developments, on which Baghdad was pinning its hopes of more than quadrupling Iraq’s oil production capacity by 2017, is the second this year.</p> <p>Iraq, which pumps 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, has set 12 billion bpd as its target production capacity, rivalling that of Saudi Arabia, as it seeks to rebuild its shattered economy.</p> <p>But in late February, Iraq broke off talks with a Japanese consortium led by Nippon Oil, which Baghdad had chosen over rival groups led by Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol to develop the Nassiriyah oilfield.</p> <p>During the failed negotiations, the Japanese companies had indicated concerns over how Baghdad would reimburse their costs for field development and handling workforce security and safety.</p> <p>In general, Chinese companies bidding on foreign oil projects have been more tolerant of tight contractual terms than western companies, because of the strategic energy agenda of their controlling shareholder, Beijing.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100516/BUSINESS/705169923/1005/rss" class="external" target="_blank">Read in full</a></strong><strong>: </strong></p> </blockquote> </div> </div> <hr/> <div class="post clearfix" id="post-10531"> <div class="postmetadata"><span class="comments"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/16/what-happens-next-in-iraq-after-baghdad-recount/#respond" title="Comment on What happens next in Iraq after Baghdad recount?">No Comments</a></span> Posted on May 16th, 2010 by Yusuf Al-Jezani</div> <h3><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/2010/05/16/what-happens-next-in-iraq-after-baghdad-recount/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to What happens next in Iraq after Baghdad recount?">What happens next in Iraq after Baghdad recount?</a></h3> <p class="postmetadata">Category: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/category/analysis-briefings-commentary/" title="View all posts in Analysis Briefings Commentary" rel="category tag">Analysis Briefings Commentary</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/category/english-articles/" title="View all posts in English Language Articles" rel="category tag">English Language Articles</a>, Tags: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/al-najifi-osama/" rel="tag">al-Najifi -Osama</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/al-nujaifi-osama/" rel="tag">al-Nujaifi - 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2nd term</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/tariq-al-hashimi/" rel="tag">Tariq al-Hashimi</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/violence/" rel="tag">violence</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%af%d8%b1/" rel="tag">حركة الصدر</a></p> <div class="entry" dir="rtl" align="right"> <p>BAGHDAD, May 16 (<a title="Reuters" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE64E02O.htm" class="external" target="_blank">Reuters</a>) – The end of a recount of votes in Baghdad opens the way for Iraq’s March 7 election results to be finally certified more than two months after the ballot, and for coalition-forming talks to begin in earnest. </p> <p>It does not mean the pace of government formation will necessarily pick up, and the ingredients are still in place for a protracted political vacuum in which sectarian tensions could lead to violence as U.S. troops pack up and start to leave. </p> <p>The sectarian warfare between once dominant Sunnis and majority Shi’ites that was kicked off after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion has subsided substantially since its peak in 2006/07. </p> <p>But a string of attacks by a weakened yet still lethal Sunni Islamist insurgency since the ballot has fuelled fears of a slide back into broad bloodshed that could derail U.S. plans to end combat operations in August ahead of a full pullout in 2011. </p> <p>The following is a glimpse into political negotiations thought to be taking place and a review of possible outcomes. </p> <h3>WHO GETS FIRST CHANCE TO FORM A GOVERNMENT </h3> <p>The recount left intact the two-seat election lead of the cross-sectarian Iraqiya list of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi over the predominantly Shi’ite State of Law bloc of incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. </p> <p>But Allawi’s chances of forming a government are slim, raising the prospect of anger among minority Sunnis who backed Iraqiya and who see its electoral success as a vindication of their claim to greater clout in post-invasion Iraq. </p> <p>Instead, a Shi’ite mega tie-up announced between Maliki’s faction and the other main Shi’ite group, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), has the best chance. They are just four seats short of a governing majority in the new 325-seat parliament. </p> <p>In theory, the president picked by the next parliament when it sits should give Allawi as the election winner the first shot at trying to form a government and 30 days in which to do so. </p> <p>The supreme court, though, has already issued an opinion stating that right could also legally be granted to the single biggest bloc in the new parliament. </p> <h3>WHO IS TALKING TO WHOM </h3> <p>In the meantime, State of Law and the INA will be talking to the recently unified Kurdish bloc about what concessions will be needed to bring the Kurds’ 57 or so seats into the fold. </p> <p>The Kurds want the presidency, a resumption in their oil exports, and commitments on disputed areas like Kirkuk, which the Kurds want wrapped into their semi-autonomous enclave. </p> <p>Maliki’s envoys will also be talking to members of Iraqiya who might cross the floor if offered a suitably attractive deal, such as a ministry. It will be important to bestow a Sunni tint on an otherwise Shi’ite-Kurdish dominated government. </p> <p>Among those who might be tempted to desert Allawi could be incumbent Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, a prominent Sunni, or members of former Sunni lawmaker Saleh al-Mutlaq’s list. </p> <p>Hashemi would bring with him around 9 seats while Mutlaq’s former National Dialogue Front could deliver at least 20. Mutlaq himself was barred from the election because of alleged links to Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein’s outlawed Baath party. </p> <p>Sunni politician Osama al-Nujaifi, who controls around half of Iraqiya’s 20-odd seats in the violent northern province of Nineveh, may also be willing to deal with State of Law and INA. </p> <p>The inclusion of a large-enough Sunni bloc may defuse some of the outrage Sunnis will feel at Allawi being sidelined by the Shi’ite factions that have dominated Iraq since Saddam’s fall. </p> <h3>WHAT STILL STANDS IN THE WAY OF A SHI’ITE MEGA-MERGER </h3> <p>The pick of prime minister is a hurdle that could yet defeat the plans to create a Shi’ite mega-faction. </p> <p>Maliki, the top vote winner in the March election, insists that he be returned to office for a second term. </p> <p>But he is opposed by the movement of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, which won 39 of INA’s 70 seats and dislikes Maliki for sending troops to crush Sadr’s Mehdi Army militia. </p> <p>Maliki is viewed with disquiet within the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which has seen its former dominance of Shi’ite politics whittled away by Maliki’s growing stature. </p> <p>In addition, the incumbent prime minister is thought to be viewed by Tehran as overly independent. Shi’ite power Iran has been an influential player in Iraq since its Shi’ite majority was propelled into political supremacy by the invasion. </p> <p>Under the tie-up, State of Law and INA were to create a 14-person committee to decide on a prime ministerial nominee. </p> <p>The formation of the panel has been stymied by disagreement within the INA as to who should be included in it, and by State of Law opposition to the INA side appointing too many Sadrists. </p> <p>The committee, once formed, will have a week to endorse a prime minister unanimously. If it fails, it will then vote on a selection. The winning candidate will need 80 percent support. If that also fails, a new mechanism will have to be agreed. </p> <h3>HOW LONG </h3> <p>It could still take months to form a new government. </p> <p>While the election results will most likely be certified by June, diplomats expect politicians to want a package deal on all remaining issues — prime minister, president and ministries — before the new parliament is allowed to hold its first session. </p> <p>A popular estimate for a new government is August, just when U.S. troops levels are supposed to go down by half to 50,000. </p> <h3>SPIRAL OF VIOLENCE </h3> <p>When Iraq waited months for a government in 2006, sectarian bloodshed took hold. Some fear history could repeat itself. </p> <p>But Iraq in 2010 is different to Iraq in 2006. </p> <p>The 650,000-plus troops and police Iraq now has have proven to be relatively professional, while not flawless, and capable of battling both Sunni insurgents and Shi’ite militia. </p> <p>Iraqis themselves are tired of war, and less inclined to turn a blind eye to or provide a safe haven for armed groups. </p> <p>Iraq has also signed 10 deals with global oil firms that could turn it into the world’s No. 2 oil producer. </p> <p>The allure of booming oil revenues may persuade many who might otherwise take up arms that it would be more profitable to join the government, than to fight it. </p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121026060828/http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE64E02O.htm" class="external" target="_blank">Reuters AlertNet – SCENARIOS-What happens next in Iraq after Baghdad recount?</a></p> </div> </div> <hr/> <div class="navigation"> <div 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