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<h1 id="artibodyTitle" cid="56106" docid="fxxneua4032434">特朗普输了，美国会内战吗？</h1> </div>   <script type="text/javascript" charset="utf-8" src="http://static.bshare.cn/b/buttonLite.js#style=-1&uuid=cc6dc2b3-f467-40cb-afae-c7c6154a5f54&pophcol=2&lang=zh"></script> <script type="text/javascript" charset="utf-8" src="http://static.bshare.cn/b/bshareC0.js"></script> <script src="http://news.sina.com.cn/268/2014/0919/bshare_update.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <div class="page-info" id="page-info"> <div class="page-tools" id="page-tools"> <div class="bshare-custom topShareBox" bshareupdate="1" data-mburl="http://doc.sina.cn/?id=comos:fxxneua4032434"> <a onclick="javascript:bShare.share(event,'sinaminiblog'); _S_uaTrack('index_news_content', 'weibo_click'); return false;" title="分享到新浪微博" class="sinaminiblog"></a> <a href="javascript:;" title="分享到微信" class="bshare-weixin" onclick="_S_uaTrack('index_news_content', 'weixin_click');"></a> <a onclick="javascript:bShare.share(event,'qzone',0); 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<p>　　目前多数民调显示，希拉里目前领先特朗普大约5个百分点，时间所剩无几，意味着她将会赢得选举。特朗普则一定会争取逆转，接下来的看点很多，但笔者认为有两点尤其值得关注。</p> <p>　　一是摇摆州战况。说这个看点之前，简要再说一下美国总统中的“选举人票”制度。</p> <p>　　美国总统选举，并非根据候选人在全美国得票总数来确定输赢，而是看在赢了多少个州，以及这些州有多少“选举人票”（选举人票，则是由历史因素决定，限于篇幅，此文不谈）。每个州根据人口多少确定有有多少选举人票，比如加州人口最多，有55个选举人票，蒙大拿、怀俄明州人口少，只有3个选举人票。全美50个州加华盛顿特区共有538个选举人票。谁获得其中270票谁就获胜。</p> <p>　　各州实行“赢者通吃”办法。只要你在这个州获得多数票，所有选举人票就归你，比如你在加州，只要得票数第一，那55张选举人票也都归你。因此，想获得270张选举人票，能否获得人口大州很重要。</p> <p>　　顺便说一下，这个制度被很多人指责为不民主，说你为什么不按全国总得票计算？其实这背后反映的是，美国各州之间彼此独立，有相当的主权，选举计票也不和其他州混合在一起，不掺和。说明美国各州州权很重要。</p> <p>　　美国很多州政治上有强烈倾向性，比如加州多数人是民主党铁杆支持者，那么这55张选举人票是希拉里的囊中之物，不需费神，特朗普就是天天到加州竞选也争不到。但有些州双方支持者势均力敌，什么都有可能，这些就是摇摆州。</p> <p>　　目前选举人票比较多的摇摆州有，佛罗里达（29票）、宾夕法尼亚（20）、俄亥俄（19）、佐治亚（16）、北卡罗莱纳（15）。而民调显示，希拉里在这些州大部分都以微弱优势领先。</p> <p>　　微弱优势不足以确保胜利，因此，在未来十天里，两人在这些州的较量成为关键。可以预见，最后一周双方的竞选活动，将大部分在这些州举行。</p> <p>　　第二点值得关注的是两人最后的策略。“抹黑”是今年大选的一大特色。不过到了这个时候，该扔的污泥估计也扔完了。在最后的十天，人身攻击的新材料估计不多，双方竞争可能反而回归大选真正重要的部分：政策对决。</p> <p>　　这方面特朗普阵营策略更明显。10月22日，特朗普到宾夕法尼亚的葛底斯堡发表了一场演说，基本勾画出自己比较具体的政策蓝图。比较有意思的亮点有：重开贸易谈判，签订更平等贸易协定；具体的应对移民措施（视情况把他们关进监狱，而不是遣返了事，免得他们再来），限制游说集团和政客之间的联系。</p> <p>　　希拉里则将一如既往强调妇女儿童权利，增加就业计划等。相比之下，因为特朗普之前的竞选较少强调政策，而最后十天强调这方面的攻势，效果值得关注。</p> <p>　　也就是说，双方最后会集中在寻找选民支持自己政策的“正面竞选”，人身攻击的“负面竞选”会减少。当然具体做法，双方都会在摇摆州投入大量人力和金钱，进行广告轰炸（必定还有大量抹黑广告），举行密集竞选集会。</p> <p>　　<strong>悬念：特朗普输会不会内战</strong></p> <p>　　最大悬念不是谁胜谁负，这种悬念绝大部分竞选都有。具有今年特色的悬念是：如果特朗普输了，美国会不会来一场“暴力革命”，即美国会不会爆发内战。</p> <p>　　在最近两个月的选举中，因为选情被动，民调落后，共和党主流也不帮助他，特朗普不断攻击美国的选举制度已经遭到破坏，在多个场合暗示，如果自己输了将不接受大选结果。被特朗普煽动起来的选民，情绪也越来越激烈，颇有“如果败选，绝不甘休”的意思。</p> <p>　　这种情况在美国历史上大概还没出现过，是个挑战，也是悬念。</p> <p>　　怎样不接受呢？目前看来大概有三个可能：一，法律挑战。如果特朗普输了，诉诸法律，那就算很文明了，结果可能会“维持原判”；二，一些特朗普支持者表示，他们将会进行大游行，“向华盛顿进军”，要游行至首都，把希拉里“逼出白宫”。这种情况，估计会造成很大混乱；三，出现最令美国很多民众担心的“暴力革命”，即特朗普煽动支持者在一些地方暴力捣乱，甚至陷入内战。如果真出现这种状况，美国就要经受自内战以来的巨大考验了。</p> <p>　　《纽约时报》在10月27日刊发了一篇报道。该文在对全国多个州大约50名特朗普支持者进行采访，发现有不少支持用第二和第三种办法。即便不支持用极端办法的人，也觉得可能会出现“向华盛顿进军”或“暴力革命”。</p> <p>　　究竟会有何结果？这是最大的悬念。</p> <p>　　（专栏作家钱克锦）</p> <p 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