Bureau of Meteorology forecasts unusually warm winter

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14.7017223 24 12 24 5.372583 24 0 18.627417 0 12S5.372583 0 12 0zm0 2C6.4771525 2 2 6.4771525 2 12s4.4771525 10 10 10 10-4.4771525 10-10S17.5228475 2 12 2z"> </path> </svg> </button> </form> </div> <div class="content"> <main class="main rows-gap margin-top-1 margin-bottom-1"> <nav aria-label="breadcrumbs" class="rank-math-breadcrumb"><p><a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com">Cosmos</a><span class="separator"> » </span><a href="/earth/climate/">Climate</a></p></nav> <section class="article-container cols-4 md-cols-1 cols-gap-1 padding-bottom-4"> <article class="col col-span-3 post-301955 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-climate category-australia category-computing category-earth category-news category-technology tag-bureau-of-meteorology tag-climate tag-climate-change tag-climate-change-action tag-australia-climate-change tag-forecasting tag-weather"> <header class="rows rows-gap"> <h1 class="entry-title row">Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts unusually warm winter</h1> <div class="row primary-image has-featured-image " data-featured-image="Chance-of-exceeding-the-median-maximum-temperature-for-May-to-July-2024.-Credit-Bureau-of-Meteorology-1200.jpg"> <img width="1200" height="675" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAxMjAwIDY3NSIgd2lkdGg9IjEyMDAiIGhlaWdodD0iNjc1IiBkYXRhLXU9IiUyRndwLWNvbnRlbnQlMkZ1cGxvYWRzJTJGMjAyNCUyRjAzJTJGQ2hhbmNlLW9mLWV4Y2VlZGluZy10aGUtbWVkaWFuLW1heGltdW0tdGVtcGVyYXR1cmUtZm9yLU1heS10by1KdWx5LTIwMjQuLUNyZWRpdC1CdXJlYXUtb2YtTWV0ZW9yb2xvZ3ktMTIwMC5qcGciIGRhdGEtdz0iMTIwMCIgZGF0YS1oPSI2NzUiIGRhdGEtYmlwPSIiPjwvc3ZnPg==" data-spai="1" class="feature-image wp caption" alt="Map of Australia coloured almost entirely in dark red, which indicates a greater than 80% chance of exceeding median maximum temperatures for May to July 2024" decoding="async" loading="eager" fetchpriority="high" /><noscript data-spai="1"><img width="1200" height="675" src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Chance-of-exceeding-the-median-maximum-temperature-for-May-to-July-2024.-Credit-Bureau-of-Meteorology-1200.jpg" data-spai-egr="1" class="feature-image wp caption" alt="Map of Australia coloured almost entirely in dark red, which indicates a greater than 80% chance of exceeding median maximum temperatures for May to July 2024" decoding="async" loading="eager" fetchpriority="high" srcset="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Chance-of-exceeding-the-median-maximum-temperature-for-May-to-July-2024.-Credit-Bureau-of-Meteorology-1200.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Chance-of-exceeding-the-median-maximum-temperature-for-May-to-July-2024.-Credit-Bureau-of-Meteorology-1200-600x338.jpg 600w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Chance-of-exceeding-the-median-maximum-temperature-for-May-to-July-2024.-Credit-Bureau-of-Meteorology-1200-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Chance-of-exceeding-the-median-maximum-temperature-for-May-to-July-2024.-Credit-Bureau-of-Meteorology-1200-300x169.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" /></noscript> <div class="caption feature">Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature for May to July 2024. Credit: Bureau of Meteorology </div> </div> </header> <div class="entry-content cols-6 md-cols-1 cols-gap-1 margin-top-1"> <div class="content-left-sidebar cols-1 col"> <section class="contributors md-cols-1 rows-gap"> <div class="row post-date"> <span class="published-date">April 12, 2024</span> </div> <div class="author row"> <img src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCA0MDAgNDAwIiB3aWR0aD0iNDAwIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjQwMCIgZGF0YS11PSJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRmNvc21vc21hZ2F6aW5lLmNvbSUyRndwLWNvbnRlbnQlMkZ0aGVtZXMlMkZjb3Ntb3MlMkZkaXN0JTJGaW1hZ2VzJTJGcGxhY2Vob2xkZXItY29udHJpYnV0b3Iuc3ZnJTNGdiUzRGFkNGJkYjZlIiBkYXRhLXc9IjQwMCIgZGF0YS1oPSI0MDAiIGRhdGEtYmlwPSIiPjwvc3ZnPg==" data-spai="1" alt="Cosmos Magazine" width="200" height="200" class="md-hide" /><noscript data-spai="1"><img src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/ret_img/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/themes/cosmos/dist/images/placeholder-contributor.svg?v=ad4bdb6e" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Cosmos Magazine" width="200" height="200" class="md-hide" /></noscript> <div class="bio"> <h3 class="md-hide">Cosmos</h3> <p class="md-hide">Cosmos is a quarterly science magazine. We aim to inspire curiosity in ‘The Science of Everything’ and make the world of science accessible to everyone.</p> <h3 id="author-name" class="hide">By Cosmos</h3> </div> </div> <div class="favourite__wrapper row cols"> <button class="showDialog simplefavorite-button" aria-label="Favourite button"> </button> </div> </section> </div> <div class="primary-content cols-1 col-span-5 col"> <div class="flexible-content "> <div class="copy"> <p>The Bureau of Meteorology’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">latest long-range forecast</a> of Australia’s climate outlook predicts potentially record warmer May to July days and nights for most of Australia.</p> <p>This year’s unusually warm winter means maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above median for most of the continent.</p> <p>Except for parts of northern NT and Queensland, much of Australia has at least a 50% chance of unusually high maximum temperatures – defined as the warmest 20% of May to July days from 1981 to 2018.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="850" height="569" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCA4NTAgNTY5IiB3aWR0aD0iODUwIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjU2OSIgZGF0YS11PSIlMkZ3cC1jb250ZW50JTJGdXBsb2FkcyUyRjIwMjQlMkYwMyUyRnRtaW4uZm9yZWNhc3QubWVkaWFuLm5hdGlvbmFsLnNlYXNvbjEubGF0ZXN0LmhyLTg1MC5wbmciIGRhdGEtdz0iODUwIiBkYXRhLWg9IjU2OSIgZGF0YS1iaXA9IiI+PC9zdmc+" data-spai="1" alt="Map of australia coloured almost entirely in dark red, which indicates a greater than 80% chance of exceeding median minimum temperatures for may to july 2024" class="wp-image-301949" title="australian bureau of meteorology forecasts unusually warm winter 1"><noscript data-spai="1"><img decoding="async" width="850" height="569" src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/tmin.forecast.median.national.season1.latest.hr-850.png" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Map of australia coloured almost entirely in dark red, which indicates a greater than 80% chance of exceeding median minimum temperatures for may to july 2024" class="wp-image-301949" srcset="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/tmin.forecast.median.national.season1.latest.hr-850.png 850w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/tmin.forecast.median.national.season1.latest.hr-850-600x402.png 600w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/tmin.forecast.median.national.season1.latest.hr-850-768x514.png 768w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/tmin.forecast.median.national.season1.latest.hr-850-300x201.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 850px) 100vw, 850px" title="australian bureau of meteorology forecasts unusually warm winter 1"></noscript><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature for May to July 2024. Credit: Bureau of Meteorology </figcaption></figure> <p>Some parts of Australia can also expect decreased rainfall from May to July, with a 60% to more than 80% chance of below median rainfall for most of northern Australia and small areas of the southern mainland.</p> <a href="https://link.cosmosmagazine.com/OP59" class="newsletter-cta" data-device="mobile"> <img decoding="async" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAzMDAgMjUwIiB3aWR0aD0iMzAwIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjI1MCIgZGF0YS11PSIlMkZ3cC1jb250ZW50JTJGdXBsb2FkcyUyRjIwMjQlMkYwMyUyRldlZWtseS1DYXRjaHVwLTMwMHgyNTAtMS5wbmciIGRhdGEtdz0iMzAwIiBkYXRhLWg9IjI1MCIgZGF0YS1iaXA9IiI+PC9zdmc+" data-spai="1" alt="Newsletter" title="australian bureau of meteorology forecasts unusually warm winter 2"><noscript data-spai="1"><img decoding="async" src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Weekly-Catchup-300x250-1.png" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Newsletter" title="australian bureau of meteorology forecasts unusually warm winter 2"></noscript> </a> <p>The long-range forecast is the result of the BOM’s climate model, which “simulates the physics of atmospheric, oceanic, ice and land surface processes, and uses millions of observations from satellites as well as in-situ instrumentation on land and at sea.”</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="850" height="569" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCA4NTAgNTY5IiB3aWR0aD0iODUwIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjU2OSIgZGF0YS11PSIlMkZ3cC1jb250ZW50JTJGdXBsb2FkcyUyRjIwMjQlMkYwMyUyRnJhaW4uZm9yZWNhc3QubWVkaWFuLm5hdGlvbmFsLnNlYXNvbjEubGF0ZXN0LmhyLTg1MC5wbmciIGRhdGEtdz0iODUwIiBkYXRhLWg9IjU2OSIgZGF0YS1iaXA9IiI+PC9zdmc+" data-spai="1" alt="Map of australia showing mostly in white, indicating a 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall. Small areas in the top end and in southern australia are yellow to red, indicating a below 50% chance, and small areas in wa and eastern australia have a greater than 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall." class="wp-image-301948" title="australian bureau of meteorology forecasts unusually warm winter 3"><noscript data-spai="1"><img decoding="async" width="850" height="569" src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/rain.forecast.median.national.season1.latest.hr-850.png" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Map of australia showing mostly in white, indicating a 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall. Small areas in the top end and in southern australia are yellow to red, indicating a below 50% chance, and small areas in wa and eastern australia have a greater than 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall." class="wp-image-301948" srcset="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/rain.forecast.median.national.season1.latest.hr-850.png 850w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/rain.forecast.median.national.season1.latest.hr-850-600x402.png 600w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/rain.forecast.median.national.season1.latest.hr-850-768x514.png 768w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/rain.forecast.median.national.season1.latest.hr-850-300x201.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 850px) 100vw, 850px" title="australian bureau of meteorology forecasts unusually warm winter 3"></noscript><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Chance of exceeding the median rainfall for May to July 2024. Credit: Bureau of Meteorology</figcaption></figure> <div class="in-content-area related-box-wrapper content-third content-right margin-bottom-1"> <div class="gradient-title">Read More</div> <ul class="related-box article-listing"> <li class="cols"> <div class="article article-post my-cosmos"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate-oscillations-enso-warming/" class="thumbnail ar-16-9" aria-label="Article link"> <span data-spai-bg-on="1" class="image" style="background-image: url(data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAxMjAwIDY3NSIgd2lkdGg9IjEyMDAiIGhlaWdodD0iNjc1IiBkYXRhLXU9Imh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGY29zbW9zbWFnYXppbmUuY29tJTJGd3AtY29udGVudCUyRnVwbG9hZHMlMkYyMDIyJTJGMDclMkZQSUEyNDk4NV9vcmlnX2Nyb3BwZWQxLmpwZyIgZGF0YS13PSIxMjAwIiBkYXRhLWg9IjY3NSIgZGF0YS1iaXA9IiI+PC9zdmc+)"></span> </a> <div class="article-content has-my-cosmos-very-light-background-color"> <a href="/earth/"> <span class="category earth-color"> Earth </span> </a> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate-oscillations-enso-warming/"> <h3>Are Earth’s major climate cycles changing? And if so, what will that mean for local weather?</h3> </a> </div> </div> </li> </ul> </div> <p>The warmer than usual coming months are influenced by global sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which been the warmest on record for each month between April 2023 and March 2024, and Australia’s warming climate – which has warmed by 1.5°C between 1910 and 2023.</p> <div class="advert ad-in-content ad-mobile auh-250"><div id="adn-00000000001fc2ca-i0p0" style="display: none"></div></div> <p>The model also accounts for the influence of <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate-oscillations-enso-warming/">natural climate drivers</a> like the <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/enso-iod-weather-patterns-explainer/">El Niño–Southern Oscillation</a> (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).</p> <div style><a href="https://link.cosmosmagazine.com/JP4n"><p align="center"><img decoding="async" class="aligncenter 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Bureau of Meteorology forecasts unusually warm winter