Mysteel参考丨2025年热轧带钢市场供需展望-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>带钢</a>市场运行情况并不乐观，行业效益陆续下滑。产业链利润分配、区域常备库存、品种资源替代、投放辐射范围等均发生较大变化。2025年国际经济或面临更多不确定因素，国内在双碳目标大背景下，热轧带钢供需面将如何运行呢？本文将从供需基本面进行分析。</p> <p><strong>一、2024年热轧带钢市场运行及供应情况回顾</strong></p> <p>图1：全国热轧带钢均价走势（单位：元/吨）</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 358.133px;" src="https://img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/11/20/bdd7df89572444fa890b2d045cc37738.png" width="600" height="358" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>2024年国内热轧带钢市场价格呈现阶梯式震荡下行走势，整体供应前高后低，需求则一直低于预期水平。具体来看，一季度宏观政策预期支撑，加之原料多次提降，钢厂整体利润逐步走高，生产积极性尚可，产量增幅较为明显。但需求释放缓慢，钢厂订单及库存压力逐渐显露，供需矛盾逐渐积累。二季度传统旺季未能兑现，叠加宏观政策预期落空，钢材价格低位震荡，钢厂成本小幅倒挂，不过整体产量依旧高于去年同期水平，供应维持偏高水平，供需矛盾继续升级。进入三季度，传统淡季整体需求表现愈加萎靡，另外在<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>新旧国标切换推动下，钢材价格大幅走弱，热轧带钢价格降至近五年低位水平，钢厂成本严重倒挂至边际成本线边缘，钢厂主动检修，整体供应大幅减少，整体供需逐渐进入弱平衡局面。9月末，宏观利好以及美联储降息等预期刺激下，市场信心好转，现货价格强势反弹，整体成交放量，钢厂利润逐渐回归，四季度供应逐渐恢复，但需求依旧不及往年同期，市场供需矛盾陆续积累。2024年热轧带钢全年价格下移，钢厂利润表现不佳，部分计划投产产线延后生产，2024年全年有4条新增产线投产，设计年产能650万吨；同时有年产近570万吨的5条落后产线淘汰。同2023年一样淘汰的产能除华北地区外，华东地区也有部分淘汰产能。</p> <p>图2：全国热轧带钢钢厂产能利用率（单位：%）</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 332.656px;" src="https://img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/11/20/66e13fd8f799484aa29a2b3abe28df50.png" width="600" height="332" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong>二、2025年中国热轧带钢市场供需展望</strong></p> <p><strong>1.需求方面</strong></p> <p>2025年由于国内经济增长放缓，特别是房地产投资大幅下行，导致内需不足的问题凸显，间接影响了热轧带钢的需求。当前热轧带钢下游面临产能过剩的问题，行业竞争压力较大，而市场消化的速度较为缓慢，企业即期利润亏损天数明显增加，经营效益整体偏差，这些压力将逐渐对热轧带钢形成倒逼。</p> <p>具体来看，热轧带钢的主要下游为管材，用量占比高达60%左右；其次是<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌</a>带钢，占比约35%左右，但其近一半以上的用途也是管材；剩下的15%包含止水钢板、高速护拦板、焊接型材等等。2024年1-9月，国家统计局<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010903-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>产量为3734.5万吨，较去年同比累积减少281.0万吨，今年国内焊管行业面临产能过剩的问题，市场竞争压力加大，中小企业生存空间受到压缩，行业洗牌加速，叠加即期利润亏损天数明显增加，经营效益整体偏差，但2025年房地产有一定政策支撑，焊管产量有继续增加可能。2024年1-10月，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>霸州重点镀锌带钢产量为552万吨，较2024年同比累积减少86万吨，较2023年同比累积减少155万吨，不过部分镀锌带企业进行设备升级提升产能，2025镀锌带产量或将增加。</p> <p>此外，随着热轧带钢产能全国区域占比更为分散，镀锌带产能也陆续向除河北，天津以外市场发展，西南、西北地区产能增幅尤为明显。但目前热轧卷板，冷轧系产品产能增长迅速，行业竞价频繁，下游选择增加，或在一定程度上对热轧带钢需求形成压制，2025年热轧带钢整体需求可能将继续保持。</p> <p><strong>2.供应方面</strong></p> <p>2024年热轧带钢厂家年度利润维持在成本线附近，但整体较去年有所下移，整体生产积极性不及往年。2025年热轧带钢将继续受到宏观经济政策、下游行业需求、供需关系以及成本端变化等多方面因素的影响，钢铁企业经营压力将继续增加，因此热轧带钢年产量可能略有下降，但剔除部分长期停产的落后僵企业后，年度产能利用率较去年将有所增加。</p> <p>2025年新增产线主要集中在长流程钢厂，伴随设备的升级，以及产能的逐渐扩大，630mm以上规格热轧带钢产量占比逐渐增加。630mm以上规格热轧带钢进行分条等会出现较大分量的废料，对于下游来说并不是优选，从产品不可替代性来看，多数钢厂在新增产能上选择630mm以上热轧带钢，其占比不断增加。而145-235mm规格热轧带钢主要集中在调坯轧钢厂，尽管产能占比不小，但其生产灵活度较高，与<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0307-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢坯</a>价差成为其是否生产的关键。但就近两年市场情况而言，全年开工设备不足半成，2025年钢材原料成本尚不会有明显下降，因此热轧带钢与钢坯价差或难有较大空间，因此2025年145-235mm规格热轧带钢产量也将继续维持低位。<a></a><a></a><a></a><a></a></p> <p>表1：2022-2025E年热轧带钢市场供需平衡（单位：万吨）</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 188.108px;" src="https://img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/11/20/99a755f71997447ca11f807038c10142.png" width="600" height="188" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><a></a>数据来源：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>我的钢铁网</a></p> <p><strong>3.库存情况</strong></p> <p>截止11月7日，Mysteel统计数据显示，热轧带钢社会库存，唐山30.19万吨，同比减少12.92万吨，较2023年同期增加11.68万吨。全国各重点城市均远低于去年同期水平。2025年钢铁企业面临产能过剩的问题，市场竞争压力加大，中小企业生存空间受到压缩，行业洗牌加速，热轧带钢价格波动较大，现货贸易企业资金压力较大，因此近两年贸易商主动入库逐渐减少，钢厂直发下游则逐年增加。此外，部分钢厂有意自行消化，产业延申增加自身利润，市场可流通热轧带钢资源也逐渐减少。因此，预计2025年全国热轧带钢社会库存或有继续下降可能。</p> <p><strong>4.成本利润及进出口情况</strong></p> <p>2025年原燃料价格将保持相对韧性，钢材生产成本控制压力犹存，热轧带钢钢厂盈利空间仍将受到挤压。此外，钢厂在技术更新、环保改造等方面的资金投入压力较大，同时受到下游需求疲软的影响，盈利能力不足，将进一步提升热轧带钢的生产成本。全球经济增长放缓、贸易保护主义抬头、地缘政治冲突加剧、原材料价格波动等因素，给钢铁行业的海外发展带来了诸多挑战。不过内需不足可能导致更多的钢材供应过剩，同时国家出台了稳外贸促外贸的政策，营造积极的外贸出口环境，2025年中国钢材出口预计将继续保持较大数量规模，但增速可能会有所回落。</p> <p><strong>三、总结</strong></p> <p>综合来看，2025年热轧带钢下游行业在面临利润微薄和竞争加剧的双重挑战时，将更加注重控制经营风险。同时，由于其他替代钢材的价格更具竞争力，因此热轧带钢需求表现或难有明显突破。热轧带钢整体供应量将保持现状，产能利用率也将保持相对稳定。不过随着钢厂不断进行设备升级改造后，热轧带钢的产品规格占比将逐渐从窄向宽倾斜，以适应市场需求的变化。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：陈群 021-26096771 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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