李迅雷：春天是不远但很多企业熬不过冬天|李迅雷|估值水平|中位数_新浪财经

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} }); }); }); }); </script>  <div class="BSHARE_POP blkContainerSblkCon clearfix blkContainerSblkCon_14" id="artibody">    <div class="moduleSingleImg01"> </div>   <p>　　文/新浪财经意见领袖（微信公众号kopleader）专栏作家李迅雷</p> <p>　　<span style="font-family: KaiTi_GB2312, KaiTi;">从资本市场的估值水平看，春天的确不远了。但现在的问题是，我们能不能熬过冬天。</span></p> <div class="img_wrapper"><img src="http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/55/w550h305/20181018/2bAk-hmhswin2746731.jpg" alt="" data-link="" data-mcesrc="https://timgsa.baidu.com/timg?image&quality=80&size=b9999_10000&sec=1539833756948&di=1ae25536c7c847cca90d6d5c9e7b290f&imgtype=0&src=http%3A%2F%2Fimage.nbd.com.cn%2Fuploads%2Farticles%2Fimages%2F580791%2F500510485_wx.x_large.jpg" data-mceselected="1"><span class="img_descr"></span></div> <p>　　谈到贸易进出口对中国经济的影响，16年是负的贡献，因为16年的时候全球经济还是没有复苏，所以中国的外贸进出口对GDP的贡献我的印象当中是-0.6%，到了17年变成正的贡献，因为经济的复苏，今年上半年又是负的贡献。</p> <p>　　总体来讲，对于GDP的增速的影响还是在一个百分点以内，这是一个比较确定的。从最近的政治局的会议提出六稳，前面的高院长也提到6个稳，稳就业，稳金融，稳外贸，稳投资，稳外资，稳预期。最后一个就是预期的问题。</p> <p>　　因为很多东西你要稳，意向要稳，实际上能不能做到稳，很难。但是这个稳需要有一个过程。</p> <p>　　关键还是在于我们把预期要提高。这就需要改革能够改变大家的预期。怎么能够让我们的制度的设计更加合理，让我们的供给侧结构性改革在进程当中更加切合实际，这是非常重要的。</p> <p>　　有的问题还是我们自身导致的，包括几个方面，减税减费大家的呼声这么高。高院长非常资深，他说财政赤字率不能过3%，我觉得这不是一个死杠杆，我们现在要救急，现在民营企业处于国内成本比较高，他把产业转移到海外去，中国通过改革开放40年，打造全国制造业的大国，我们在全球的产业链非常的完善。不能因为国内的成本的调整，就把我们的产业转移。在这样的人口大国产业转移导致国内的很多产业中断，断裂了。</p> <p>　　对于刘士余主席讲春天已经到来，我觉得资本市场是中国经济晴雨表，资本市场的波动也是反映大家对于经济的预期的变化。大家担心未来，目前股市经过这么长时间的调整，估值水平大幅度的下降，我觉得刘主席讲到春天不远，我也是认可。估值水平来讲，我们过去很多整体的估值很是很高，我们以市盈率的中位数，因为平均数没有意义，中国的银行很大权重很高，讲中位数可以客观反映。</p> <p>　　资本市场的波动反映了外界对于经济的预期的变化。股市经过长时间的调整，估值水平已大幅度下降。从估值水平来讲，过去很多股票整体的估值很高，以市盈率的中位数看，2015年，最高的时候市盈率中位数是70倍，现在是23倍，在国际上面有一定的竞争力，从这个层面上说，春天确实不远。另一方面，供给侧的结构性改革使得我们全社会的稳杠杆目标可以实现，部分杠杆的水平在下降。问题的关键，在于我们能不能熬过冬天。</p> <p>　　春天是不远，但很多企业熬不过冬天。比如，跟2015年相比，我们的股权质押问题，比之前还要更加严重，虽然去杠杆了，但是资产缩水。资产缩水之后，分母变小了，分子即便没有变化，杠杆率又上去了。这个时候需要地方政府考虑措施进行救助。我们要熬过冬天，才能走到春天。李迅雷认为，现在出台的政策很多，每个政策拿出来看都有道理。但是这几条政策的叠加效应，对企业可能带来不利影响。稳定预期还是要在政策上面统筹考虑。</p> <p>　　我也是再强调一下就是要防止一种政策的叠加效应，因为现在的政策非常多，我们每一套政策拿出来看起来都有道理，都很好，但是这几条政策的叠加效应对企业带来不利的影响，比如说，环保很好，但是我们现在不少企业跟我反映，现在全球最高的环保标准来对企业提出要求。上海某一家的董事长跟我说，他们的空调排污水都是小净化处理，这样大量提高企业的成本，如果说新的空调设施做污水处理可以，旧的成本需要很高。</p> <p>　　我们服务业通过网购释放的垃圾又很多，这个标准不一样，我觉得没有必要一刀切，包括违章建筑的拆建都是对的，但是在这个时候同时推进企业不堪重负，作为资本市场，它的股票都是标的主要是企业，我们的稳定预期还是要在政策上面统筹考虑。</p> <p>　　(本文作者介绍：中泰证券首席经济学家。) </p><p> </p> </div> <script type="text/javascript"> //分享到微博单张图片分享 jsLoader(ARTICLE_JSS.sinalib). jsLoader(ARTICLE_JSS.shareOnWeibo,function(){ WeiboShare.config({ source: ARTICLE_DATA.source, sourceUrl: ARTICLE_DATA.sourceUrl, uid: ARTICLE_DATA.uid, encoding: 'utf-8', selectShare: false, channelId:ARTICLE_DATA.channelId }); 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李迅雷：春天是不远 但很多企业熬不过冬天|李迅雷|估值水平|中位数_新浪财经_新浪网

李迅雷：春天是不远但很多企业熬不过冬天|李迅雷|估值水平|中位数_新浪财经_新浪网