CINXE.COM

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" xmlns:georss="http://www.georss.org/georss" xmlns:geo="http://www.w3.org/2003/01/geo/wgs84_pos#" > <channel> <title>Good Authority</title> <atom:link href="https://goodauthority.org/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /> <link>https://goodauthority.org/</link> <description>Political Science Insights to Illuminate the News</description> <lastBuildDate>Mon, 17 Feb 2025 13:11:45 +0000</lastBuildDate> <language>en-US</language> <sy:updatePeriod> hourly </sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency> 1 </sy:updateFrequency> <generator>https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5</generator> <site xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">223153435</site> <item> <title>Nicaragua’s revised constitution gives the president added powers</title> <link>https://goodauthority.org/news/nicaragua-revised-constitution-gives-president-ortega-added-powers/</link> <comments>https://goodauthority.org/news/nicaragua-revised-constitution-gives-president-ortega-added-powers/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Shelley A. McConnell and Heather Sullivan]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 17 Feb 2025 12:52:40 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Constitution]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Nicaragua]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://goodauthority.org/?post_type=news&p=141505</guid> <description><![CDATA[The latest changes deepen the Ortega-Murillo family’s political control – and legalize new forms of repression. Constitutional revisions in Nicaragua have now entrenched the political power of President Daniel Ortega and his wife, VP Rosario Murillo. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/nicaragua-revised-constitution-gives-president-ortega-added-powers/">Nicaragua’s revised constitution gives the president added powers</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[The latest changes deepen the Ortega-Murillo family’s political control – and legalize new forms of repression. <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="512" height="512" src="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024.jpg" alt="Nicaragua constitutional changes have deepened President Daniel Ortega's power. " class="wp-image-141495" style="object-fit:cover" srcset="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024.jpg 512w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-300x300.jpg 300w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-150x150.jpg 150w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-380x380.jpg 380w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-211x211.jpg 211w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-422x422.jpg 422w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-25x25.jpg 25w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-50x50.jpg 50w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-404x404.jpg 404w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-376x376.jpg 376w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-310x310.jpg 310w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-177x177.jpg 177w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-354x354.jpg 354w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-40x40.jpg 40w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/512px-Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024-80x80.jpg 80w" sizes="(max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega and VP Rosario Murillo in September 2024 (cc) <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Daniel_Ortega_y_Rosario_Murillo_Septiembre_2024.jpg">Consejo de Comunicación y Ciudadanía del Gobierno de Nicaragua</a>, via Wikimedia Commons.</figcaption></figure> On Jan. 26, Nicaragua’s legislature concluded a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/nicaragua-congress-gives-final-approval-sweeping-constitutional-reforms-2025-01-30/">constitutional reform process</a> that altered over 100 elements of Nicaragua’s 1987 constitution. These changes notably <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/nicaragua-daniel-ortega-rosario-murillo-b5f119ea8bee27c48b2fdd70710c70dd">created a co-presidency</a>, a position designed for President Daniel Ortega’s wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo. This guarantees that if Ortega, now 79 and in poor health, becomes unable to govern, Murillo will retain control of the country. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-15544315">Ortega</a> has been active in Nicaraguan politics his whole life. As a teenager, he joined the Sandinista National Liberation Front (<a target="_blank" href="https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/display/document/obo-9780199766581/obo-9780199766581-0194.xml">FSLN</a>), a left-wing revolutionary group fighting to bring down the Somoza dictatorship that ruled Nicaragua from 1936 to 1979. After the overthrow of the Somoza regime he became president, but was voted out of office in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Violeta-Barrios-de-Chamorro">democratic elections in 1990</a>. Since <a target="_blank" href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6250295.stm">returning to the presidency in 2007</a>, Ortega has taken steps to assure that he and his family will not lose another election. The recent constitutional revisions serve to deepen and entrench <a target="_blank" href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/nicaragua">Nicaragua’s authoritarian regime</a>. These changes centralize power, further dampen freedom of expression, and alter the coercive apparatus in ways that will facilitate unchecked repression. While this recent move fundamentally alters the constitution, it follows a long path of democratic erosion that began even before Ortega reassumed power in 2007.  <h3 class="wp-block-heading">The emergence of Nicaraguan democracy </h3> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/1979/12/02/archives/a-delicate-balance.html">In 1979</a>, the FSLN overthrew the long-standing Somoza dictatorship. However, the win occurred in the broader context of the Cold War. After the FSLN’s victory, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/3991646.pdf?casa_token=l-8x9GHM3u0AAAAA:2cyzgpnFU96aveW17IdUaJkBzcG9lu2JB5m0KoFpYv_IeW1NYGSUySghUZ65D--396PywUaCaTVkj1SYnM-7-mX0hlaJzmTPhXdvU_Z_r6AMXN2Dmob5vw">the United States sponsored</a> a counterrevolutionary war and later implemented a trade and finance embargo against the Sandinista regime.  <a target="_blank" href="https://oxfordre.com/politics/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-1769">Against this backdrop</a>, in an attempt to shore up domestic as well as European political support, the FSLN implemented a series of democratic reforms that set up a presidential system with a unicameral legislature. In 1984, the FSLN held and won elections that were not fully competitive but nonetheless resulted in roughly one-third of the legislative seats going to opposition parties.  The next presidential election took place in 1990, when ordinary Nicaraguans were <a target="_blank" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/27861849.pdf">feeling the effects of U.S. pressure</a>. GDP per capita and real wages had fallen dramatically, inflation was severe, and government austerity measures had eroded the social programs the FSLN had initiated during the party’s first years in power. With the economy a crucial electoral issue, Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, running as part of a broad opposition coalition, won the election. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cartercenter.org/documents/1153.pdf">The Carter Center</a>, one of the international electoral observers monitoring the process, reported that this election represented “the first time in Nicaraguan history [that] all of the political parties that began the electoral campaign completed it, and all agreed to accept and respect the vote both before the election and afterwards.”  Under Chamorro, Nicaragua further <a target="_blank" href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.1769">institutionalized its nascent democracy</a>. She helped end the partisan nature of the Supreme Court and Supreme Electoral Council, and depoliticized the military. The legislature then amended the constitution, transferring control of the national budget from the presidency to the legislature, improving the balance of powers, and also banning the immediate reelection of the president and their close relatives. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Democracy’s erosion</h3> In 1996, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1996/10/22/rightist-claims-victory-in-nicaragua/310b549e-3792-4244-a30f-0671562c1576/">Arnoldo Alemán</a> of the conservative Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) was elected president. <a target="_blank" href="https://nacla.org/article/strange-bedfellows-aleman-ortega-pact">In 2000</a>, with the country in economic distress from Hurricane Mitch and Alemán facing multiple accusations of corruption, Alemán secretly negotiated a political pact with Daniel Ortega. The two leaders then used their parties’ control of the legislature to amend the constitution and electoral law to put the pact into effect. One plank of this pact was that the departing presidential candidate and the second-place finisher in presidential elections would automatically get a seat in the National Assembly. This would grant them parliamentary immunity from criminal prosecution, protecting Alemán from corruption charges. Parliamentary immunity also benefited Ortega, who was facing a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1998/03/14/stepdaughter-accuses-ortega-of-abusing-her/4b7e8200-e8f5-490d-adf3-16e524f663ae/">sexual abuse accusation</a> that became a <a target="_blank" href="https://uapress.arizona.edu/book/lgbtq-politics-in-nicaragua">highly public issue</a> in 1998.  While the FSLN was the largest opposition party in the legislature at the time, <a target="_blank" href="https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2010.109.724.74">many doubted</a> Ortega could win a majority in a presidential election, given his polarizing history. Importantly, however, the pact lowered the electoral threshold to win the presidency to 35% of the total vote, plus at least a 5% lead over the nearest political rival, a number Ortega could and later did reach. More damaging to the <a target="_blank" href="https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2010.109.724.74">country’s fledgling democratic institutions</a>, the pact re-politicized Nicaragua’s state institutions. Thus, no matter who won the 2001 general elections, the FSLN and PLC would each appoint half of the Supreme Electoral Council and the Supreme Court. In addition, the pact included <a target="_blank" href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781626374737/html">changes to the country’s electoral rules</a>. New electoral legislation made it virtually impossible to form new political parties and raised hurdles for small parties to maintain their official registration. Consequently, after the 2001 elections small parties held almost no seats in the legislature, compared to <a target="_blank" href="https://data.ipu.org/election-summary/HTML/2235_01.htm">15 seats</a> in the previous legislative term. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Ortega’s return to power</h3> All this paved the way for Ortega to win the 2006 elections with only 38% of the vote. Political scientist <a target="_blank" href="https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2017.0032">Kai Thaler notes</a> that, since returning to office, Ortega has overseen Nicaragua’s “slide from competitive authoritarianism toward authoritarianism plain and simple.”  While Ortega immediately began <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/oct/20/nicaragua-ortega-sandinista-reelection">chipping away at laws</a> that would prevent him from exercising unchecked power, many authoritarian changes were institutionalized in Ortega’s broad efforts to revamp the constitution in 2014. These <a target="_blank" href="https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2017.0032">2014 constitutional changes</a> legalized unlimited reelection. It gave presidential decrees the status of law, making the legislature a rubber stamp. And it placed the police and military more firmly under Ortega’s control.  In 2018 the public <a target="_blank" href="https://theconversation.com/nicaragua-protests-threaten-an-authoritarian-regime-that-looked-like-it-might-never-fall-95776">took to the streets in protest</a>, triggered by proposed pension cuts. The police responded aggressively, firing live ammunition against unarmed civilians. In the months that followed, the protests spread across the country and were met with increasing repression. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Countries/NI/HumanRightsViolationsNicaraguaApr_Aug2018_EN.pdf">U.N. High Commissioner on Human Rights documented</a> numerous human rights violations, including widespread arbitrary detentions, excessive use of force, and extrajudicial killings. In the aftermath of the protests, the regime further tightened the screws by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/16/ortega-condemned-for-raids-on-ngos-and-media-in-nicaragua">shutting down nongovernmental organizations and independent media</a>.  Since the protests, Ortega has continued to rely on repression to maintain power. In the run-up to the 2021 elections, his regime <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-59202881">arrested presidential hopefuls</a> from half a dozen opposition parties. Since the election, critics of the regime, including clergy, have been <a target="_blank" href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/nicaragua/freedom-world/2023">arrested and sentenced</a> to long prison terms in sham trials. Others have been <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-spain-government-caribbean-daniel-ortega-4907d12691ef14a243adffb5fb34ce82">exiled and stripped of their citizenship</a>. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">What’s in the recently approved constitutional changes?</h3> In addition to the creation of a co-presidency, the recent constitutional revisions centralize power in the executive, and deepen and formalize practices the Ortega regime was already employing.  The constitution now <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oas.org/en/iachr/jsForm/?File=/en/iachr/media_center/preleases/2024/295.asp&utm_content=country-nic&utm_term=class-mon">defines the presidency</a> as coordinator of the legislature, judiciary, and electoral branch, ending the separation of powers. These changes also granted the executive more discretionary power to fire public officials. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/11/nicaragua-un-group-experts-alarmed-far-reaching-change-constitution">According to Jan-Michael Simon</a>, chair of the UN Group of Human Rights Experts on Nicaragua, “the current Government is apparently aiming to legalize and consolidate its hold on unrestricted power.” Nicaragua’s constitution currently leaves less space for civil society organizations to speak and act. The constitution now includes a provision allowing the government to strip “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/22/nicaragua-ortega-wife-absolute-power">traitors to the homeland</a>” of their citizenship, legalizing the practice begun after the 2021 elections. In addition, the constitutional changes stipulate that media organizations and religious institutions must be <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/22/nicaragua-ortega-wife-absolute-power">free of foreign influence</a>. In addition, <a target="_blank" href="https://ticotimes.net/2024/11/21/nicaragua-faces-backlash-over-ortegas-constitutional-changes">religious events that disrupt public order</a> will no longer be permitted, officially allowing the regime to ban religious processions. The reform also gave legal stature to the “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/nicaragua-launches-volunteer-police-force-that-critics-fear-will-be-paramilitary-2025-01-18/">volunteer police</a>,” defined as a voluntary civilian force intended to support the formal police. Thousands have been inducted, swearing loyalty to Ortega and Murillo in ceremonies in which inductees’ faces were covered with balaclavas. According to human rights groups, this move <a target="_blank" href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2025-01-17/nicaraguas-ortega-and-murillo-institutionalize-paramilitary-groups-behind-the-deaths-of-over-350-people.html?outputType=amp">formalized the paramilitaries</a> that have been responsible for acts of repression since the 2018 protests. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">The consequences of Ortega’s personalization of power</h3> With these recent moves, Ortega has successfully cemented a shift from a <a target="_blank" href="https://whateveryoneneedstoknow.com/display/10.1093/wentk/9780190880194.001.0001/isbn-9780190880194">party-based to a personalist dictatorship</a>. In personalist regimes, power is highly concentrated in the leader and there are no autonomous political institutions. These regimes tend to exhibit <a target="_blank" href="https://books.google.com/books?id=LhNg0AEACAAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">higher levels of policy volatility</a> because, as political scientists Alex Baturo, Luca Anceschi, and Francesco Cavatorta note, the lack of constraints allows leaders to “translate their idiosyncratic, and at times idiotic, preferences into policy.” But alongside high levels of discretionary power and opportunities for corruption, the move to a personalist regime carries major risks. Barbara Geddes, Joseph Wright, and Erica Frantz’s <a target="_blank" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/43279909.pdf?casa_token=dQFQVusMySYAAAAA:4WkhDIqmX5B0iI6ObGadXUosGKDY1k4F09OuEPaT5mf32EXDqnIrAI8Lffe2yXv2Kg8Oqy7JVg2ENNSyQRxqKhiz7YnxcEjvhmhPt1682ezFRQSvVqv0yA">study of autocratic breakdown</a> found that 69% of personalist leaders faced exile, imprisonment, or death after an ouster, compared to only 37% of dominant-party leaders. It also found that countries run by personalist leaders were least likely to democratize. Given the severe limits on autonomous groups, mass protest is one of the few tools available to overthrow this type of regime. That said, the personalization of power also leads to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/706049?casa_token=1ZwWucwxKlQAAAAA:JxImTYAygxhCmMuX9Usdj1ftipjkgZVI7gmFdxhIPW4cDQUGoPtN6XtHFqqMI3PRdZMmQiA3VDATJw">higher levels of repression and decreased respect for human rights</a>, which makes popular organizing challenging.  Indeed, Ortega’s increasing personalization of power has been associated with higher <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/two-years-after-nicaraguas-mass-uprising-started-why-is-daniel-ortega-still-in-power/">levels of repression</a>. According to Human Rights Watch’s “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2025/country-chapters/nicaragua">Nicaragua: Events of 2024</a>” report, since 2018, the government has closed 5,600 nongovernmental organizations – 80% of those working in the country – and shuttered at least 58 media outlets. In addition, since 2023, the government has stripped over 450 people of their Nicaraguan citizenship. Many are now stateless, putting Nicaragua in violation of international law guaranteeing the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/nationality-and-statelessness">fundamental human right to a nationality</a>. And by July 2024, 345,800 Nicaraguans were seeking asylum abroad and another 30,000 had been recognized as refugees. In addition, by designating his wife as co-president, Ortega has put in place a strategy that attempts to solve the potential regime destabilization that can occur in personalist regimes upon the leader’s death. Analysts assume that this move is intended to smoothly transition <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dw.com/en/nicaragua-president-ortega-wife-to-be-granted-new-powers/a-70864664">the couple’s son into governing as co-president</a> with Murillo, once Ortega becomes unable to govern. Thus, prospects for democratic change in Nicaragua look bleak. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.stlawu.edu/people/dr-shelley-mcconnell">Shelley A. McConnell</a> is the Charles D., Sarah A. and John D. Munsil Associate Professor of Political Science at St. Lawrence University. She has monitored elections in Nicaragua since 1989 with the United Nations and with The Carter Center, and regularly publishes scholarly works on Nicaragua’s elections and politics. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hamilton.edu/academics/our-faculty/directory/faculty-detail/heather-sullivan">Heather Sullivan</a> is a 2024-2025 Good Authority fellow. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/nicaragua-revised-constitution-gives-president-ortega-added-powers/">Nicaragua’s revised constitution gives the president added powers</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://goodauthority.org/news/nicaragua-revised-constitution-gives-president-ortega-added-powers/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">141505</post-id> </item> <item> <title>What to make of Trump’s choice for labor secretary</title> <link>https://goodauthority.org/news/what-to-make-of-lori-chavez-deremer-trump-nominee-labor-secretary/</link> <comments>https://goodauthority.org/news/what-to-make-of-lori-chavez-deremer-trump-nominee-labor-secretary/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Laura C. Bucci]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 17 Feb 2025 11:00:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category> <category><![CDATA[labor]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://goodauthority.org/?post_type=news&p=141482</guid> <description><![CDATA[Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer backed pro-labor legislation. So why did Trump nominate her to join his cabinet? Lori Chavez-DeRemer will likely be confirmed as labor secretary for an administration that's not concerned about labor protections. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/what-to-make-of-lori-chavez-deremer-trump-nominee-labor-secretary/">What to make of Trump’s choice for labor secretary</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer backed pro-labor legislation. So why did Trump nominate her to join his cabinet? <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="819" height="1024" src="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/1024px-Rep._Lori_Chavez-DeRemer_official_photo-819x1024.jpg" alt="Chavez-DeRemer faces confirmation hearings this week." class="wp-image-141481" style="aspect-ratio:1.1428571428571428;object-fit:cover;width:594px;height:auto"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Secretary of Labor nominee <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rep._Lori_Chavez-DeRemer_official_photo.jpg">Lori Chavez-DeRemer</a> (official photo, 118th Congress, via Wikimedia Commons). </figcaption></figure> Confirmation hearings are now set for Feb. 19, 2025, for Trump’s nominee for labor secretary, Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Chavez-DeRemer seems to be a departure from the more problematic cabinet nominees of the new Trump administration.  She seems pretty positive toward organized labor – especially for a Republican. Her selection suggests a move by the Trump administration to court organized labor, even while pushing policies that labor membership and other working Americans tend to oppose. To be sure, Chavez-DeRemer does not have that much experience. She’s a one-term member of the House of Representatives from Oregon. She lost her reelection bid last fall. But she also had <a target="_blank" href="https://prospect.org/politics/2024-12-04-labor-nominee-chavez-deremer-trump-loyalist/">support</a> from some labor unions in her district, even if the Democratic candidate had more. When it comes to policy, she was one of only three Republican <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-cabinet-labor-secretary-lori-chavezderemer-feaa4672efac644aa60722d3a3215df1">co-sponsors</a> of the PRO Act, which aimed to make it easier for workers to form unions. She also supported another bill that would protect the social security of public sector workers also receiving a government pension.  <h3 class="wp-block-heading">A pro-labor track record</h3> Compared to her GOP colleagues, in fact, Chavez-DeRemer stands out as one of the strongest advocates for labor in the Republican Party – but the bar is low. One measure worth noting is her<a target="_blank" href="https://aflcio.org/scorecard/legislators/lori-chavez-deremer"> AFL-CIO score</a> of 10%. This means she sides with the policies of the AFL-CIO, representing a broad swath of the policy positions of America’s unions, 10% of the time. In comparison, the typical score for a Republican member of Congress is 6%. The average House Democrat scores 99% by the same measure.  The nomination of Chavez-DeRemer has led some analysts to suggest that Trump is trying to signal his willingness to work with organized labor and union members. However, as was the case when the president of the <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/can-the-gop-really-become-the-party-of-americas-workers/">Teamsters</a> spoke at the 2024 Republican National Convention, political alliances are made of more than signals. The Republican Party has long made it clear that it opposes the goals of unions, and unions themselves. A prototypical example of this stance was when President Ronald Reagan <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/2021/08/05/1025018833/looking-back-on-when-president-reagan-fired-air-traffic-controllers">fired 11,000 air traffic controllers</a> who had gone on strike in 1981, seeking higher wages and shorter hours. So simply saying you support union workers is not enough when it is unclear what that support means in real terms.  In fact, there’s no evidence that the Trump administration has, or intends to have, a commitment toward organized labor, or the rights of U.S. workers. All of the evidence we have suggests the opposite. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Project 2025 takes aim at U.S. labor protections</h3> The new administration has stuck closely to plans laid out in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c977njnvq2do">Project 2025</a>, the Heritage Foundation blueprint mapping out much of the new Trump administration’s policy moves. In labor policy, for example, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/project-2025s-plan-to-gut-checks-and-balances-harms-american-workers/">Project 2025</a> outlines concrete ways to empower employers, and make it more difficult for workers to unionize. For workers, these sweeping changes emphasize ending mandatory overtime pay, a Biden administration ruling from <a target="_blank" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/politics/overtime-pay-salaried-workers-biden/index.html">April 2024</a>; abolishing the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (<a target="_blank" href="https://time.com/7213433/what-is-osha-republicans-disband/">OSHA</a>), the arm of the Department of Labor that plays a key role in keeping U.S. workers and workplaces safer; and allowing younger people to join the workforce. In each of these instances, employers would have more discretion to require workers to work for less pay, or possibly work under conditions that are more dangerous.  For unionization, Project 25 proposes banning “<a target="_blank" href="https://tcf.org/content/commentary/project-2025-is-not-pro-worker-or-pro-union/">card check</a>,” a mechanism to organize a union, as well as weakening (or eliminating) the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). The NLRB determines whether a violation of labor law has occurred, and has significant expertise over complicated and technical laws. At present, because <a target="_blank" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/15/business/nlrb-trump-musk-workers/index.html">Trump illegally fired a board member of the NLRB</a>, there aren’t enough members to form a quorum and actually meet. Typical courts lack both the time and the expertise to adequately weigh in on labor decisions – which, of course, may be the point. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">What is Trump’s end goal on labor matters?</h3> Chavez-DeRemer, thus, is poised to enter an administration that has clear, if chaotic, plans for the future of U.S. labor. As a press brief from the AFL-CIO <a target="_blank" href="https://aflcio.org/press/releases/afl-cio-statement-trumps-nomination-congresswoman-lori-chavez-deremer-labor">suggested</a>, it remains to be seen what she could do under such an anti-worker administration. There are also questions about why Trump selected Chavez-DeRemer in the first place. Was it to appear to be an ally to labor? Was it to give cover for new, more restrictive, labor policies? Did the nominee appear eager to take a U.S. Department of Labor in a new Trumpian direction, or ignore <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/mass-firings-sweep-across-federal-agencies-as-trump-administration-defends-itself-in-court">mass layoffs of federal employees</a>?  Of course, the Trump administration is very much <a target="_blank" href="https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-trumps-flurry-of-executive-action-4-essential-reads-on-autocrats-and-authoritarianism-248492">a personalistic regime</a>. This leaves Chavez-DeRemer very little room to do as she wishes, if indeed she wanted to in the first place. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">How will the hearing go? </h3> Typically, in Senate confirmation hearings the nominee is confirmed. In the current Senate, Republicans have the votes to confirm nominees on their own. However, some of the new Trump nominees have faced <a target="_blank" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/30/politics/rfk-gabbard-patel-confirmation-hearings-takeaways/index.html">sharp criticism</a> for their <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/04/us/politics/trump-cabinet-confirmations-gop-senators.html">lack of qualifications</a> and antagonism toward their respective departments. Yet even the far more controversial <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5099360-trump-cabinet-nominees/">nominees</a> have made it through the confirmation process in the past month.  It’s possible that Chavez-DeRemer is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.opb.org/article/2025/02/10/president-trump-labor-secretary-nominee-oregon-lori-chavez-deremer-cabinet/">too pro-labor for Senate Republicans</a> like Rand Paul (R-Ky.). This could create tension within the GOP on how strongly to oppose organized labor.  We’ll see – Chavez-DeRemer will no doubt face tough questions from Democrats and Republicans alike in this week’s confirmation hearing.  <a target="_blank" href="https://directory.sju.edu/laura-c-bucci">Laura C. Bucci</a> is a 2024-2025 Good Authority fellow. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/what-to-make-of-lori-chavez-deremer-trump-nominee-labor-secretary/">What to make of Trump’s choice for labor secretary</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://goodauthority.org/news/what-to-make-of-lori-chavez-deremer-trump-nominee-labor-secretary/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">141482</post-id> </item> <item> <title>The politics behind Marc Fogel’s release from a Russian prison</title> <link>https://goodauthority.org/news/politics-behind-marc-fogel-release-from-russia-prison/</link> <comments>https://goodauthority.org/news/politics-behind-marc-fogel-release-from-russia-prison/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Danielle Gilbert]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sat, 15 Feb 2025 16:17:04 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[hostages]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://goodauthority.org/?post_type=news&p=141466</guid> <description><![CDATA[The Trump administration’s negotiations with Russia may signal a bigger shift in U.S. policy. Is Marc Fogel’s release part of Trump’s Russia strategy? Hostage recovery is also a made-for-TV policy win. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/politics-behind-marc-fogel-release-from-russia-prison/">The politics behind Marc Fogel’s release from a Russian prison</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[The Trump administration’s negotiations with Russia may signal a bigger shift in U.S. policy. <figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="800" height="400" src="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release.png" alt="Marc Fogel is free from detention in Russia." class="wp-image-141470" style="object-fit:cover;width:800px;height:400px" srcset="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release.png 800w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-300x150.png 300w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-768x384.png 768w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-211x106.png 211w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-422x211.png 422w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-25x13.png 25w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-50x25.png 50w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-772x386.png 772w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-376x188.png 376w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-752x376.png 752w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-177x89.png 177w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rsz_marc_fogel_hostage_release-354x177.png 354w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Marc Fogel (center) returns to the United States on Feb. 11, 2025, after being detained in Russia for more than three years (official White House photo by Daniel Torok). </figcaption></figure> Marc Fogel is free. In 2021, the American schoolteacher was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/02/11/marc-fogel-released-russia-what-to-know/78422084007/">arrested at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport</a> when he was found carrying 17 grams of marijuana in his luggage. Russian prosecutors charged him with international drug smuggling and drug possession and sentenced him to 14 years in a Russian <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/brittney-griner-memoir-russian-prison-sentence-putin/">penal colony</a>. On Feb. 11, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/11/us/politics/marc-fogel-teacher-released-russia.html">Trump administration announced</a> that they had secured Fogel’s freedom through an exchange. Fogel is the latest American to come home from Russia in a high-profile swap. Since 2022, the United States has recovered seven Americans held hostage by the Kremlin. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/04/27/trevor-reed-texas-russia-prison-swap/">Trevor Reed</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/brittney-griner-was-wrongfully-detained-what-happens-now/">Brittney Griner</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/hostage-russia-gershkovich-whelan-biden-negotiations/">Evan Gershkovitch</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/21/world/europe/paul-whelan-russia-prisoner-swap.html">Paul Whelan</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/media/2024/07/29/alsu-kurmasheva-journalist-russia-detained/">Alsu Kurmasheva</a> – and now Fogel – were victims of what I call “<a target="_blank" href="https://tnsr.org/2021/11/caught-between-giants-hostage-diplomacy-and-negotiation-strategy-for-middle-powers/">hostage diplomacy</a>” – when autocratic governments use their criminal justice systems to take foreigners for leverage. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fogel was wrongfully detained</h3> In October 2024, the Biden administration designated Fogel as “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/marc-fogel-wrongfully-detained-u-s-government/">wrongfully detained</a>.” This designation serves as the U.S. government’s acknowledgement that an American is being held for leverage by an adversarial government, and that intervention will be necessary to set them free. In contrast to other recent high-profile Americans arrested in Russia – like Griner and Gershkovitch – Fogel had to wait years before receiving the designation. His family and members of Congress <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/marc-fogel-family-return-reaction/">advocated relentlessly</a> on his behalf during this time. While the deliberations for the official designation are not made public, the State Department tends to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/10/gershkovich-russia-wrongfully-detained-wsj-state">make the designation quickly</a> when there is evidence that the charges were fabricated or exaggerated, or when the arresting government makes demands in exchange for the American’s release. Perhaps the designation took so long because of the sheer amount of medical marijuana in Fogel’s possession – more than 24 times the amount for which Griner had been detained. As the first U.S.-Russia prisoner swap under the new Trump administration, Fogel’s release reveals a dramatic shift in U.S. hostage recovery policy. Here are some ways that Fogel’s return suggests we may see a <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/bidens-hostage-diplomacy-explained/">new era of hostage diplomacy</a>. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">A hostage “drop”?</h3> During the Biden administration, we became accustomed to seeing prisoner swaps <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-63911895">take place in real time</a> on an airport tarmac. Much like the Cold War era <a target="_blank" href="https://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/insights/cold-war-era-spy-swaps-kidnapping-and-criminality-putin-era">spy-v-spy swaps</a>, planes carried the prisoners to be exchanged to a neutral country’s airport. Each side released its prisoners through a closely choreographed swap. Prisoners then walked past each other on the tarmac, headed toward the planes that would bring them home. Such simultaneous trades are crucial to ensure that both sides continue to comply with the terms of the deal. In interviews I’ve conducted with current and former senior U.S. hostage policy officials, experts stress the importance of the coordinated swap. Officials often work until the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/books/review/jason-rezaian-prisoner.html">very last second</a> to ensure compliance with the terms of trade – and that no one has been left behind. In abandoning the simultaneous exchange, Fogel’s release – though non-monetary in nature – much more closely resembled the ransom “drop” in a kidnap-for-ransom case. Instead of concurrent exchanges, kidnappers insist on collecting payment long before they set a hostage free. In my <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/logic-of-kidnapping-in-civil-war-evidence-from-colombia/906B5C3924A9EFE7E63A8646BFCF752E">interviews</a>, hostages’ family members and hostage negotiators describe hiding money in the wheel wells of vehicles or stuffing duffel bags full of cash to present to the captors: “You give them the money, and then you trust.” The hostage is only released days later, after the kidnappers “<a target="_blank" href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00104140241302726">validate the payment</a>” and give the order to let them go. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">“Very fair, very reasonable”</h3> In making this trade, Trump follows his Democratic and Republican predecessors in<a target="_blank" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/prisoners-dilemma-america-adapt-hostage-taking"> making concessions</a> to bring Americans home from captivity. In exchange for Fogel’s freedom, the Trump administration released Alexander Vinnik, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/12/europe/russia-citizen-exchange-marc-fogel-intl/index.html">Russian money launderer</a>. The U.S. Department of Justice had accused the Russian of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-is-alexander-vinnik-russian-prisoner-being-traded-american-marc-fogel-2025-02-12/">laundering $4 billion</a> through the BTC-e cryptocurrency exchange. A U.S. grand jury <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy08z28wpvdo">charged him on 21 counts</a> related to laundering stolen funds. Vinnik faced up to 20 years in U.S. prison. In the past, <a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/post/186586/donald-trump-hostage-exchange-brittney-griner-russia">Trump and other Republicans</a> jumped to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/us/politics/griner-blowback.html">criticize Democrats’ deals</a> to <a target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/president-trump-bowe-bergdahl/story?id=50912155">bring hostages home</a>, often calling them “unfair” or “bad deals.” In contrast, Trump asserted, the Fogel-Vinnik swap was “very fair, very reasonable, not like deals you’ve seen over the years.” Indeed, the president is correct that this deal was unlike those negotiated during the Biden administration. In this case, Trump seems to have conceded much, much more to bring an American home. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Is Fogel’s release part of Trump’s Russia strategy? </h3> As I wrote here on Good Authority in December, <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/us-hostage-policy-negotiations-trump-biden-negotiation-concession/">Trump tends to reward hostage-taking countries</a> by embracing their autocratic rulers. In the past, for instance, Trump heaped praise on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un after they took Americans hostage. But beyond the apparent thaw in U.S.-Russia relations, there’s good reason to think that the <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/5142615-john-bolton-donald-trump-vladimir-putin-ukraine-talks/">president now plans to concede Ukraine</a>, too. National Security Advisor <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-20ab40d17f8a9b4abf9b3498da979859">Michael Waltz</a> called Fogel’s release “a sign we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine.”  In the days since Fogel’s release, Trump has suggested that Ukraine “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/europe/ukraine-russia-trump-zelensky-intl/index.html">may be Russian someday</a>.” He agreed to “<a target="_blank" href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113991956474899296">work together, very closely</a>” with Vladimir Putin on a deal to end the war in Ukraine – a war that <a target="_blank" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/13/world/video/trump-nato-ukraine-russia-war-ac360-paton-walsh-digvid">Trump hinted was Ukraine’s fault</a>, for seeking to join NATO. Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, proclaimed that the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/12/politics/hegseth-ukraine-rules-out-nato-membership/index.html">United States would not support</a> Ukrainian aspirations to join NATO, and that Ukraine cannot liberate the territory occupied by Russian forces. Taken together, these comments represent a complete rebuff of Ukraine’s self-defense position, throwing support behind Putin’s norm-shattering aspirations. Beyond the jarring reversal of U.S. policy on Ukraine, such policy concessions mark a pointed shift in how American presidents bring hostages home. Past presidents have, on rare occasions, tacked hostage recovery onto broader geopolitical negotiations. During the Obama administration, for instance, prisoner swaps played an important role in negotiating the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/world/americas/alan-gross-cuba-and-the-united-states.html">normalization of U.S.-Cuba relations</a> and finalizing the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/middleeast/iran-jason-rezaian-prisoners-freed/index.html">2015 Iran nuclear deal</a>. But even in these rare examples, hostage recovery was one component of an ongoing shift – not the quid pro quo to a policy change. In almost every other instance, presidents kept hostage negotiations separate, protecting major U.S. policy and strategy from hostage takers’ demands.  <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump wants “something demonstrable”</h3> In interviews, former hostage recovery <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJWt35--SuA">officials have stressed</a> that President Trump “loves” the idea of resolving a hostage situation, because it’s something “demonstrable.” As I’ve written previously, hostage recovery bolsters <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/us-hostage-policy-negotiations-trump-biden-negotiation-concession/">Trump’s self-image</a> as the “dealmaker-in-chief,” showing off his negotiator bona fides. But beyond the deal-making symbolism, hostage recovery is also a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1057610X.2020.1792723">made-for-TV</a> policy win. As officials have admitted, having the president <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/world/russia-prisoner-swap-us">greet a returning hostage</a> “polls really, really well.” Trump has long orchestrated photo opportunities with former hostages and detainees. One video, shot for the 2020 Republican National Convention, features former detainees invited to the White House to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/disgusting-trump-critics-slam-president-video-freed-hostages-n1237987">thank the president</a> personally for their freedom. This week was no exception. Upon returning to the United States, Fogel was brought straight to the White House for a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHKF62FrnGs">press conference</a>. Overcome with emotion in front of the cameras, Fogel proclaimed Trump a hero. Watching Fogel’s return to the United States, it’s difficult not to share the relief and joy in his freedom. And yet, this week’s photo-ops actually violated all best practices for caring for the newly freed. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2025/02/13/marc-fogel-san-antonio-hospital-jorge-toledo/stories/202502120102">Standard protocol</a> is to bring hostages and wrongful detainees immediately to a U.S. military base, where they go through the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reckon.news/news/2023/04/inside-the-texas-ex-hostage-program-helping-former-detainees-like-paul-rusesabagina.html">Post Isolation Support Activities</a> (PISA) program. For up to two weeks, military medical and mental health professionals monitor each person carefully for physical and psychosocial trauma. PISA stresses the individual’s agency, autonomy, and privacy – it is in the program’s quiet, protected spaces that former hostages begin the <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/brittney-griner-memoir-russian-prison-sentence-putin/">incredibly difficult process</a> of adapting to their post-detention future.  Such a change in protocol would seem particularly jarring for Fogel, whose poor health and <a target="_blank" href="https://triblive.com/local/marc-fogel-speaks-about-his-health-and-hope-of-returning-home-in-interview-from-russian-prison/">severe chronic pain</a> made his detention in a Russian prison so challenging in the first place. Instead, Fogel came straight from the plane to White House, delaying his recuperation. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/02/president-donald-j-trump-brings-marc-fogel-home/">Taking credit</a> for Fogel’s freedom appeared to be the clear priority for the Trump White House.  The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/politics-behind-marc-fogel-release-from-russia-prison/">The politics behind Marc Fogel’s release from a Russian prison</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://goodauthority.org/news/politics-behind-marc-fogel-release-from-russia-prison/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">141466</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Sonic Youth, ‘Eric’s Trip’: The Week In One Song</title> <link>https://goodauthority.org/news/sonic-youth-erics-trip-the-week-in-one-song/</link> <comments>https://goodauthority.org/news/sonic-youth-erics-trip-the-week-in-one-song/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Christopher Federico]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 14 Feb 2025 18:05:11 +0000</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://goodauthority.org/?post_type=news&p=141459</guid> <description><![CDATA[The world is dull, but not today. The Department of Justice falls into crisis as attorneys quit in resistance to pressure to dismiss corruption charges against Mayor […] The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/sonic-youth-erics-trip-the-week-in-one-song/">Sonic Youth, ‘Eric’s Trip’: The Week In One Song</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[The world is dull, but not today. <figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper"> <iframe loading="lazy" title="Sonic Youth Eric's Trip Detroit 1990" width="1250" height="703" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/du-f5ieQNB4?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe> </div></figure> The Department of Justice falls into crisis as attorneys quit in resistance to pressure to dismiss corruption charges against Mayor Eric Adams of New York City. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/sonic-youth-erics-trip-the-week-in-one-song/">Sonic Youth, ‘Eric’s Trip’: The Week In One Song</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://goodauthority.org/news/sonic-youth-erics-trip-the-week-in-one-song/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">141459</post-id> </item> <item> <title>The U.S. Senate has two Black women in office, for the first time</title> <link>https://goodauthority.org/news/us-senate-alsobrooks-rochester-two-black-women-new-senators/</link> <comments>https://goodauthority.org/news/us-senate-alsobrooks-rochester-two-black-women-new-senators/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Niambi M. Carter]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 14 Feb 2025 11:30:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category> <category><![CDATA[race and ethnic politics]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://goodauthority.org/?post_type=news&p=141439</guid> <description><![CDATA[Why the election of Sen. Angela Alsobrooks and Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester is a big deal. Few Black women have won statewide races. Meet the two new U.S. senators who did. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/us-senate-alsobrooks-rochester-two-black-women-new-senators/">The U.S. Senate has two Black women in office, for the first time</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[Why the election of Sen. Angela Alsobrooks and Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester is a big deal. <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="768" src="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-1024x768.png" alt="Meet the two Black women now serving in the U.S. Senate, Lisa Blunt Rochester and Angela Alsobrooks." class="wp-image-141453" style="object-fit:cover;width:800px;height:500px" srcset="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-1024x768.png 1024w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-300x225.png 300w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-768x576.png 768w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-211x158.png 211w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-422x317.png 422w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-25x19.png 25w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-50x38.png 50w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-539x404.png 539w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-1077x808.png 1077w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-376x282.png 376w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-752x564.png 752w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-177x133.png 177w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-354x266.png 354w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1-980x735.png 980w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GA-43-1-1.png 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lisa_Blunt_Rochester_official_photo.jpg">Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester</a> (D-Del.) on the left, and <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sen._Angela_Alsobrooks_official_Senate_photo,_119th_Congress.jpg">Sen. Angela Alsobrooks</a> (D-Md.) on the right; photos combined via Canva.com. </figcaption></figure> On Jan. 3, 2025, two Black women, Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) and Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), were sworn in as members of the United States Senate. For the first time in U.S. history, Americans elected two Black women to serve in the Senate simultaneously. Alsobrooks and Rochester join incumbent Black senators Corey Booker (D-N.J.), Tim Scott (R-S.C.), and Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.).  Alsobrooks and Rochester are not the first Black women to join the Senate; their election brings the total number of elected Black women to serve in the Senate to four. In 1992, Carol Mosley-Braun (D-Ill.) was the first Black woman elected to the Senate. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), in 2016, was the second Black woman to win a Senate seat. And Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) was appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Sen. Dianne Feinstein.  But if we look at the composition of the Senate over time, only 12 Black legislators have been elected or appointed to serve since 1967 – when Ed Brook (D-Mass.) became the first Black person elected to the Senate in the modern era. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.senate.gov/senators/african-american-senators.htm">U.S. Senate records</a> name a total of 14 Black senators, including two Republican senators from Mississippi, Hiram R. Revels (who served from 1870 to 1871) and Blanche K. Bruce (from 1875 to 1881). <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Few Black women have won statewide races</h3> The sparse representation of Black legislators, especially Black women, in the U.S. Senate has been a perennial issue. Research has documented the fact that Black candidates tend to fare worse when seeking <a target="_blank" href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/7b4cea57cdfbf0654b94920e60518496/1?cbl=1821483&pq-origsite=gscholar">high-profile statewide offices</a>, like a U.S. Senate seat or the governor’s office. The reasons for this are myriad, yet chief among these is a <a target="_blank" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pops.12235?casa_token=qWFjyXqbMN0AAAAA%3AKMn5xCnZAiWjw7kz_PTGmL6LRdeGsQY-mcM3FQc4GabujFQf7BtvNQwZkVBO9GGmUVsXuCQ6_TDOuzB0">reluctance on the part of White voters</a> to elect Black candidates. Although there is ample evidence to suggest that <a target="_blank" href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=KcvRAgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=nadia+brown+black+members+of+congress+constituent&ots=ZEY-oE-P4w&sig=MQgZ3vAMQjBdMSY-M3OEofTDuB4#v=onepage&q=nadia%20brown%20black%20members%20of%20congress%20constituent&f=false">Black elected officials, particularly Black women, expand the boundaries of who they consider to be constituents</a>, it is uncommon to see Black representatives elected with majority White constituencies. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), for example, is a notable exception. And while there are other <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/02/16/22-states-have-ever-elected-a-black-woman-to-congress/">Black women who represent majority White districts</a> in the House of Representatives, the data show a substantial drop-off in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Women_of_Color_Political_Elites_in_the_U/EB2rEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=nadia+brown+christopher+clark&pg=PT6&printsec=frontcover">representation</a> at the highest levels, such as gubernatorial and senatorial positions.  Black candidates who are able to win these kinds of positions remain few and far between. Americans have elected just three Black governors – L. Douglas Wilder (D-Va.), Deval Patrick (D-MA), and Westley Moore (D-Md.). And David Paterson was an appointee when he served as New York’s governor. A Black woman has never been elected governor. Stacey Abrams of Georgia is as close as any Black woman has gotten to a governor’s seat. Black candidates for <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_minority_governors_and_lieutenant_governors_in_the_United_States">lieutenant governor</a>, however, have been more successful at the ballot box.  Nonetheless, high-profile Black elected officials have to walk a very fine line. While they are in powerful positions, in most cases they are largely defanged because they cannot say or do anything that risks alienating their party or White voters that helped elect them. There is no state with <a target="_blank" href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-018-9496-y">enough Black voters</a> or <a target="_blank" href="https://publicintegrity.org/politics/black-candidates-see-little-of-the-millions-their-parties-raise/">dollars</a> to be the <a target="_blank" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3385855">sole supporters</a> of candidates in these types of races. As a consequence, Black women elected officials find themselves “<a target="_blank" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/0162-895X.00098?casa_token=22OcdAV3sjEAAAAA:C63lYfoTVCwSh1sLUymRW0J_hRXa7senoXXD_K5orm_NK5zFw3tExjUPuyFMxiq1j-G5FXpD5oLxA6ZH">doubly bound</a>” by their race and gender, having to toggle between these identities and the expectations these identities carry.  <h3 class="wp-block-heading">And reelection remains a big challenge</h3> What is more, reelection is not always in the offing. Sens. Brook, Scott, and Booker won reelection to their seats, but we have never seen a Black woman senator win a second term. Braun, like Harris, served just one term. Braun lost her reelection bid and Harris became the first Black woman to serve as vice president.  Of course, it’s difficult to draw firm conclusions from this relatively small number of cases. But if we consider how long it took America to elect two Black women to serve in the same Senate term, it is not hard to believe <a target="_blank" href="https://www.proquest.com/docview/219038461?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true&sourcetype=Scholarly%20Journals">keeping these two seats will be a task</a>. For example, a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wbaltv.com/article/economy-governor-moore-approval-key-issues-umbc-poll/62532245">UMBC</a> poll shows Maryland Gov. Wes Moore enjoys a 54% approval rating. It’s difficult to know how his reelection bid might fare in 2026, as this same poll shows most Marylanders (66%) rate the current economy as poor. If the 2024 presidential election is any indication, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268018302362?casa_token=9VXd4aS-qOoAAAAA:J2DKofwcS3OvZJ-iH0AiPrtS__Pyb1R1-Y5r3gZG0X-AffLEsYrHy1m94j5uSJHCR1FOjMbbdhw">voter worries about the economy</a> could drag down Moore’s reelection bid for governor – and, by extension, Alsobrooks’ reelection chances. <a target="_blank" href="https://prospect.org/power/glass-ceiling/">Incumbency</a> for Black high-profile elected officials does not seem to guarantee reelection, contrary to the situation for their non-Black peers or their <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/yvette-clarke-leads-a-new-era-for-cbc-congressional-black-caucus/">colleagues in the House</a> and in local offices. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Alsobrooks and Rochester hope to champion critical issues</h3> The presence of Alsobrooks and Rochester in the current Senate is supremely important, because <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/politics-and-gender/article/abs/sister-space-collective-descriptive-representation-and-black-women-in-legislative-caucuses/649A26E70788F75629454CE3EDD95B2B">the issues they are attentive to</a> are issues fellow lawmakers often overlook. That said, Democrats are in the minority in the current 119th Congress – and <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5119639-democrats-frustration-trump-agenda/">party leaders are struggling</a> to counter the disruptions and policy priorities of the new Trump administration. Trump’s policies, for instance, do not prioritize Black maternal health care, workers’ rights, affordable housing, voting rights and other issues that Alsobrooks and Rochester feel strongly about. Alsobrooks and Rochester are also at a disadvantage as freshman senators with no seniority within their party caucus.  In sum, the election of these women represents an important first, but both new senators will likely face real barriers to their ability to move the needle on policies of the greatest concern to their voters. Newly elected Sens. Alsobrooks and Rochester offer a measure of reassurance to voters that an expanded electorate leads to more inclusive legislative institutions. The fact that it took until November 2024 to get here shows us how much farther we have to go to achieve a more racially and gender-inclusive Congress. <a target="_blank" href="https://spp.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/niambi-carter">Niambi M. Carter</a> is a 2024-2025 Good Authority fellow. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/us-senate-alsobrooks-rochester-two-black-women-new-senators/">The U.S. Senate has two Black women in office, for the first time</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://goodauthority.org/news/us-senate-alsobrooks-rochester-two-black-women-new-senators/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">141439</post-id> </item> <item> <title>PEPFAR has saved 25 million lives. Without it, millions will die.</title> <link>https://goodauthority.org/news/pepfar-has-saved-25-million-lives-without-it-millions-will-die/</link> <comments>https://goodauthority.org/news/pepfar-has-saved-25-million-lives-without-it-millions-will-die/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kim Yi Dionne]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 13 Feb 2025 11:30:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[AIDS]]></category> <category><![CDATA[global health]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://goodauthority.org/?post_type=news&p=141428</guid> <description><![CDATA[Even pausing PEPFAR programs puts millions at risk. Every delay means more lives lost. PEPFAR, the U.S. program funding HIV prevention and treatment in more than 50 countries, has been stalled by Trump's executive orders. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/pepfar-has-saved-25-million-lives-without-it-millions-will-die/">PEPFAR has saved 25 million lives. Without it, millions will die.</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[Even pausing PEPFAR programs puts millions at risk. Every delay means more lives lost. The Trump administration’s destruction of the U.S. government’s foreign aid programming began with an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/">executive order</a> the day Trump returned to office, and has continued with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/what-is-usaid-trump-musk-shut-down-budget-funding-doge-rcna190441">dismantling</a> of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). These moves have wrought chaos for humanitarian programs around the world. Even after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio released an “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Final-Signed-Emergency-Humanitarian-Waiver.pdf">Emergency Humanitarian Waiver</a>” a week later, organizations supported by U.S. foreign aid still had no authorization to resume their lifesaving work. Caught in the chaos are programs supported by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hiv.gov/federal-response/pepfar-global-aids/pepfar">PEPFAR</a>. Apparently an additional instruction specific to PEPFAR issued after the waiver <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/SenBillCassidy/status/1886546867548512456">has not been enough</a> to get organizations to resume distributing life-saving medication in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.state.gov/where-we-work-pepfar#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20President's%20Emergency%20Plan,Regional%20Operational%20Plan%20(ROP)">more than 50 countries</a>. Watching the challenges facing PEPFAR the last two weeks highlights the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/01/31/g-s1-45601/trump-pepfar-hiv-positive-antiretroviral-waiver">confusion</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-dei-federal-workers-plane-crash-733303f2c808834f4cc4b30dfaf308a7">disruption</a> sowed by Trump’s executive orders – and how these orders have literal life-and-death implications. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">What is PEPFAR?</h3> PEPFAR is the largest bilateral effort against HIV and AIDS. HIV is the acronym for human immunodeficiency virus, which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or AIDS. While there have been many scientific breakthroughs since the identification of HIV/AIDS in the early 1980s, there is no vaccine for HIV and there is no cure for AIDS. AIDS was a leading cause of death globally for many years. The introduction in the mid-1990s of antiretroviral therapy generated a remarkable decline in AIDS death rates in rich countries. Efforts like PEPFAR extended access to these life-lengthening drugs to people living in poorer countries. In his Jan. 29, 2003, State of the Union address, President <a target="_blank" href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/01/20030129-1.html">George W. Bush initiated PEPFAR</a> by asking Congress to commit $15 billion over the next five years. The eventual bill introduced in the House of Representatives – <a target="_blank" href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/108th-congress/house-bill/1298">H.R. 1298</a> (108th): United States Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Act of 2003 – received wide bipartisan support and was signed into law May 27, 2003. PEPFAR has since been reauthorized multiple times by multiple Congresses and presidents. PEPFAR dominates the global response to AIDS and is the largest <a target="_blank" href="https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/">commitment</a> by any country to any single disease response. Among other activities, PEPFAR funds the purchase and distribution of antiretroviral therapy. PEPFAR reports saving <a target="_blank" href="https://www.state.gov/results-and-impact-pepfar">25 million lives</a> and is actively providing more than 20 million adults and children life-saving drug therapy. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Some PEPFAR activities may be covered by the waiver, but their programs haven’t resumed</h3> The chaos caused by the Trump administration has now left PEPFAR in limbo. Even leadership at the George W. Bush Presidential Center is unclear about the implications of the executive order pausing foreign aid and the humanitarian waiver. In an op-ed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2025/01/29/rubios-pepfar-waiver-was-the-right-thing-to-do/">published</a> in the Dallas Morning News on Jan. 29, Executive Director of the George W. Bush Institute David Kramer initially applauded the Trump administration “granting PEPFAR a waiver from a freeze.” There is an “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bushcenter.org/publications/rubios-emergency-humanitarian-waiver-was-the-right-thing-to-do">updated</a>” version of the letter posted to the George W. Bush Presidential Center’s website, however. This Jan. 31 update demonstrated a renewed understanding that the waiver did not – in fact – lead to a resumption of PEPFAR programming.  In his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2025/01/29/rubios-pepfar-waiver-was-the-right-thing-to-do/">original</a> op-ed, Kramer wrote, “But it’s vital that the administration keep [PEPFAR] exempt from the pause in funding so that it can continue to ensure that those on treatment receive uninterrupted care.” The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bushcenter.org/publications/rubios-emergency-humanitarian-waiver-was-the-right-thing-to-do">updated</a> version replaces that sentence with “But we urge the Department of State to resume PEPFAR programming immediately so that those on treatment can receive uninterrupted care.” The U.S. Embassy in South Africa created a PEPFAR Frequently Asked Questions <a target="_blank" href="https://za.usembassy.gov/presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar-status-frequently-asked-questions/">page</a> on Feb. 10 that illustrates that even as some PEPFAR activities should be able to resume, they haven’t yet:  <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> Our teams are working as fast as we can to prepare the administrative documentation needed to resume activities covered under the limited waiver.  </blockquote> <h3 class="wp-block-heading">People will die without the drugs PEPFAR supports</h3> The title of my book, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/doomed-interventions/B365AD529DAD1938DC6C84AF4E96DF7A">Doomed Interventions: The Failure of Global Responses to AIDS in Africa</a>, should make clear that I’m not generally confident about global interventions to improve the human condition, including those targeting HIV and AIDS in Africa. In my <a target="_blank" href="https://a.co/d/2VuVYmB">book</a>, I detail multiple failed interventions (like a condom social marketing campaign <a target="_blank" href="https://anthrosource.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1525/maq.2004.18.1.77">in Mozambique</a>) or interventions with unintended negative consequences (like how Gates Foundation grants diverted healthcare workers from basic care to HIV/AIDS care in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2007-dec-16-na-gates16-story.html">Lesotho</a>).  But having studied AIDS interventions in Africa for more than 20 years now, and critically analyzing multiple datasets, I have to admit that PEPFAR has had a tremendous positive effect in the fight against AIDS. Without the drugs PEPFAR supports, people will die.  The figure below includes the impact of all antiretroviral medication (not just that supported by PEPFAR), but it indicates the tremendous effect these drugs have in keeping people alive. <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/hivaids-deaths-and-averted-due-to-art?tab=chart" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;" allow="web-share; clipboard-write"></iframe> If you’re not familiar with the incredible “Lazarus effect” that antiretroviral therapy has on people with HIV/AIDS, watch the documentary below. The reality is stark: Every delay, every bureaucratic hurdle, and every political maneuver that delays or blocks PEPFAR operations translates directly into lost lives. Millions of people rely on these medications to survive. Without PEPFAR programs, the world will see a resurgence of preventable deaths. This isn’t a debate about policy nuances or budgetary concerns – it’s a matter of life and death. The success of PEPFAR has been undeniable, and its disruption is catastrophic. The longer this chaos continues, the more people will suffer. <iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l16YH6xCN4c?si=uBrVxzLgtx_9SQ3F" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe> The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/pepfar-has-saved-25-million-lives-without-it-millions-will-die/">PEPFAR has saved 25 million lives. Without it, millions will die.</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://goodauthority.org/news/pepfar-has-saved-25-million-lives-without-it-millions-will-die/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">141428</post-id> </item> <item> <title>How Democrats can bolster public support for USAID</title> <link>https://goodauthority.org/news/how-democrats-can-bolster-public-support-for-usaid-foreign-aid/</link> <comments>https://goodauthority.org/news/how-democrats-can-bolster-public-support-for-usaid-foreign-aid/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Tesler]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:00:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[foreign aid]]></category> <category><![CDATA[USAID]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://goodauthority.org/?post_type=news&p=141412</guid> <description><![CDATA[Democrats can effectively defend the embattled agency by focusing on popular foreign aid policies – and the growing public concerns about Elon Musk’s influence. Many Americans support U.S. foreign aid for disaster relief, food security, health care, and other priorities. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/how-democrats-can-bolster-public-support-for-usaid-foreign-aid/">How Democrats can bolster public support for USAID</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[Democrats can effectively defend the embattled agency by focusing on popular foreign aid policies – and the growing public concerns about Elon Musk’s influence. <figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b.jpg" alt="foreign aid for Haiti, after 2010 earthquake." class="wp-image-141417" style="object-fit:cover;width:800px;height:475px" srcset="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b.jpg 1024w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-300x200.jpg 300w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-768x512.jpg 768w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-211x141.jpg 211w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-422x281.jpg 422w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-25x17.jpg 25w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-50x33.jpg 50w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-606x404.jpg 606w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-376x251.jpg 376w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-752x502.jpg 752w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-177x118.jpg 177w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-354x236.jpg 354w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/4689443682_4dd1ef1ca7_b-980x654.jpg 980w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Children at Tabarre Issa Emergency Relocation Camp, after Haiti’s 2010 earthquake (cc) <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/49482478@N06/4689443682/">Kendra Helmer/USAID</a>. </figcaption></figure> Congressional Democrats <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/2025/02/05/g-s1-46669/usaid-trump-stop-work-protest-rally">led demonstrations</a> last week to protest the Trump administration’s unprecedented <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/ending-us-foreign-aid-hurts-far-more-than-aid-programs/">assault on the United States Agency for International Development</a> (USAID) funding, staffing, and operations. But three well-known Democratic strategists – David Axelrod, James Carville, and Rahm Emanuel – all think that’s a flawed strategy. Instead, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/04/democrats-foreign-aid-trap-trump-00202447">they told Politico</a> that Democrats should save their outrage for cuts to government policies that are far more popular than foreign aid, such as federal funding for education and Medicaid. Progressive politicians, however, can forcefully defend USAID without running afoul of public opinion. You’ll see in the figure below that most Americans support many different forms of foreign aid. They also dislike abrupt policy changes to the status quo and have growing concerns about Elon Musk’s influence in Washington, D.C. So, framing the fight around those more favorable factors would likely bolster public support for USAID.  <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Foreign aid is not inherently unpopular</h3> Now to be fair, Axelrod was indeed accurate in his assertion that, “When you talk about cuts, the first thing people say is: Cut foreign aid.” Foreign aid almost always comes in last place on the<a target="_blank" href="https://gssdataexplorer.norc.org/trends"> General Social Survey’s (GSS) 20+ questions</a> about the specific policies the country should spend more money on. That was certainly the case in the 2022 GSS, when 57% of respondents said the U.S. spends too much on foreign aid to other countries, compared to only 11% who thought we don’t spend enough.  At the same time, though, the graph below – from <a target="_blank" href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Foreign_Aid_poll_results.pdf">a YouGov survey in early February 2025</a> – shows solid public support for several different forms of foreign aid.  <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="677" src="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--1024x677.png" alt="" class="wp-image-141411" srcset="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--1024x677.png 1024w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--300x198.png 300w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--768x508.png 768w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--211x140.png 211w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--422x279.png 422w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--25x17.png 25w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--50x33.png 50w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--611x404.png 611w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--1222x808.png 1222w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--376x249.png 376w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--752x497.png 752w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--177x117.png 177w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--354x234.png 354w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid--980x648.png 980w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Y076N-americans-broadly-support-several-types-of-foreign-aid-.png 1240w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure> This recent poll asked whether the U.S. government should or should not provide aid to foreign countries for several different purposes. You can see that majorities or pluralities favored all 13 of the policies, with support ranging from a high of 73% who say the U.S. should provide foreign aid to disaster relief to a low of 38% who favor providing military assistance.  Americans are particularly supportive of foreign aid for humanitarian causes. Along with disaster relief, the graph shows that there are solid majorities who think the U.S. should provide foreign aid for food security (64%) and alleviating poverty (57%). In keeping with that strong public support, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/republicans-try-to-save-usaid-food-program-86751fc4">congressional Republicans are now trying to save USAID’s food program</a>. Another recent <a target="_blank" href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2025/02/04/6fbdb/3">YouGov poll</a>, meanwhile, similarly showed that 71% of Americans (including 63% of Republicans) support the U.S. providing humanitarian aid to other countries. A plurality of Republicans in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/views-of-the-u-s-role-in-the-israel-hamas-war/">March 2024 Pew poll</a> even supported humanitarian aid to Palestinians despite the GOP’s staunch support for Israel. Democrats could help bolster support for USAID, then, by focusing attention on several of these popular foreign aid programs provided by the agency.  <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Shifts in support for policies under threat</h3> Those efforts should be aided by a familiar phenomenon in which the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/when-public-opinion-goes-to-the-ballot-box/">public pushes back against policy changes to the status quo</a>. In fact, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111666?origin=crossref&seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">political science research</a> shows that public opinion often <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/the-public-is-a-thermostat/">operates as a “thermostat</a>,” whereby the public shifts against the current president’s positions to prevent policymaking from becoming too liberal or too conservative. For example, Americans’ <a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/468401/majority-say-gov-ensure-healthcare.aspx">support for universal government health insurance</a> dropped during Obama’s presidency and then increased as the Trump administration tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017. Public support for immigration <a target="_blank" href="https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/racing-apart">similarly surged</a> from 2016 to 2020 amidst the Trump presidency’s hawkish rhetoric and policies and <a target="_blank" href="https://democracyfund.org/idea/pushed-and-pulled/">then plummeted</a> under Joe Biden’s presidency, when his more lenient policies led to record number of border crossings. We even saw some thermostatic shifts in support of foreign aid during the first Trump administration. The share saying the U.S. spends too much on foreign aid fell <a target="_blank" href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/ipoll/trend/61cd3041-6a12-49e6-8caf-cf7a3e734749">from 60% in both the 2012 and 2014 GSS down to 41% in 2018</a> – by far the lowest percentage since the question was first asked in the early 1970s. Public opinion shifts in support of foreign aid should be even stronger during the second Trump administration now that aid funding faces far graver threats. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Opposition to Elon Musk </h3> Democrats could further bolster support for USAID by pitting the agency’s foreign aid efforts against Musk. Political science <a target="_blank" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00541.x">research suggests</a> that cues from enemies are often more important in moving public opinion than messaging from allies, as they typically induce members of the other party to take contrary positions. Trump’s constant push for a U.S.-Mexico border wall during the 2016 presidential campaign, for instance, <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/donald-trump-is-making-the-border-wall-less-popular/">made the policy much less popular among Democrats. </a> USAID has a particularly potent foil in Musk. <a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/post/191244/elon-musk-popularity-polls">Polling shows</a> that the world’s richest man is increasingly unpopular – and that Americans have growing concerns about his influence as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The share of YouGov/Economist poll respondents who think Musk should have a lot of influence within the Trump administration fell from<a target="_blank" href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_IHMRRoV.pdf"> 27% in November</a> down to<a target="_blank" href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econtoplines_c1AfT3R.pdf"> just 13% in February</a>. Other polling similarly shows that most Americans now<a target="_blank" href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/economy/survey-results/daily/2025/02/06/69d81/3"> have concerns</a> about conflicts of interest arising from Musk’s role in DOGE, and <a target="_blank" href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3918">disapprove of his prominent role in the administration</a>. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Democrats can help spread the message</h3> Progressives seem to understand the messaging potential here. News <a target="_blank" href="https://time.com/7212840/elon-musk-rally-treasury-usaid/">stories </a>last week <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/05/politics/democrats-messaging-elon-musk/index.html">reported </a>on how outrage at the Musk/DOGE attacks on the federal bureaucracy has helped a demoralized Democratic Party finally fight back against Trump. Framing DOGE’s defunding of foreign aid as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/opinion/usaid-spending-trump-musk.html">the world’s richest man taking from the world’s poorest children</a> is a powerful message that will likely increase public support for USAID.As the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/04/democrats-foreign-aid-trap-trump-00202447">Politico</a> article points out, “The political considerations in vocally defending foreign aid are of course entirely separate from the humanitarian and national security concerns at play.” But contrary to the magazine’s contention, those considerations are not necessarily at odds with each other. Democrats can forcefully defend USAID without risking political backlash by focusing on popular humanitarian policies and the public’s growing concerns about Elon Musk’s influence. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/how-democrats-can-bolster-public-support-for-usaid-foreign-aid/">How Democrats can bolster public support for USAID</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://goodauthority.org/news/how-democrats-can-bolster-public-support-for-usaid-foreign-aid/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">141412</post-id> </item> <item> <title>The misinformation on South Africa’s new land act</title> <link>https://goodauthority.org/news/misinformation-south-africa-new-land-act-trump-musk/</link> <comments>https://goodauthority.org/news/misinformation-south-africa-new-land-act-trump-musk/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Carolyn E. Holmes]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Tue, 11 Feb 2025 11:30:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[South Africa]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://goodauthority.org/?post_type=news&p=141392</guid> <description><![CDATA[South Africa’s Expropriation Act mirrors eminent domain rules in the United States and other countries. The Trump administration's executive order against South Africa makes unfounded claims about the new land act. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/misinformation-south-africa-new-land-act-trump-musk/">The misinformation on South Africa’s new land act</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[South Africa’s Expropriation Act mirrors eminent domain rules in the United States and other countries. <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="682" src="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-1024x682.jpg" alt="South Africa’s new land act" class="wp-image-141391" style="object-fit:cover;width:800px;height:400px" srcset="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-300x200.jpg 300w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-768x511.jpg 768w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-211x140.jpg 211w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-422x281.jpg 422w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-25x17.jpg 25w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-50x33.jpg 50w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-607x404.jpg 607w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-1214x808.jpg 1214w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-376x250.jpg 376w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-752x500.jpg 752w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-177x118.jpg 177w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-354x236.jpg 354w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-1536x1022.jpg 1536w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k-980x652.jpg 980w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20351421759_9900ccaad9_k.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Farmland near Vioolsdrift, Northern Cape, South Africa (cc) <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/south-african-tourism/20351421759">South African Tourism</a>, via Flickr. </figcaption></figure> On Feb. 7, the White House issued an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/addressing-egregious-actions-of-the-republic-of-south-africa/">executive order</a> that the U.S. government would immediately promote the “resettlement of Afrikaner refugees escaping government-sponsored race-based discrimination, including racially discriminatory property confiscation.” The order followed on the heels of a tarmac press conference in which U.S. President Donald Trump nebulously <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-south-africa-cut-funding-aid-musk-92529403c0902bacd9d5cc5985d429cb">threatened</a> to cut off all funding to South Africa because of their new policy of “confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people very badly.”  In his Feb. 6 announcement officially <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/06/rubio-accuses-south-africa-of-anti-americanism-and-snubs-g20-meeting">withdrawing</a> from the upcoming G20 meeting in Johannesburg, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made similar statements.  These claims echo statements by Trump advisor and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/elon-musk-citizenship-us-south-africa-canada-b2693635.html">South African-Canadian-American</a> billionaire Elon Musk. Musk has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/01/musk-south-africa-apartheid-chant-malema/">alleged</a> that a government campaign has targeted the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/17/white-house-blasts-elon-musk-for-promoting-antisemitic-racist-hate.html">property</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jan/26/elon-musk-peter-thiel-apartheid-south-africa">threatened</a> the physical safety of white South Africans for years, <a target="_blank" href="https://harpers.org/archive/2019/03/the-myth-of-white-genocide-in-south-africa/">despite</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/05/15/tucker-carlson-those-south-african-white-rights-activists-arent-telling-you-whole-truth/">widespread</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2023/05/12/from-satanism-to-genocide-moral-panic-and-white-supremacy-in-south-africa/">evidence</a> to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-and-foreign-governments-should-be-skeptical-afriforums-lobbying">contrary</a>. No such campaigns exist, and South Africa has instituted no widespread or arbitrary land seizures. So why does this talking point keep coming up – and why the sudden executive action to withdraw an estimated $440 million in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn01z1yy0jno">U.S. aid for AIDS prevention</a>? It’s because of a misinterpretation of South Africa’s Expropriation Act, signed into law in January 2025 by President Cyril Ramaphosa. Here’s what you need to know. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">First, what is South Africa’s Expropriation Act?</h3> While many activists in South Africa and elsewhere have decried the Expropriation Act as the government rejecting the private property regime, it is important to note that democratic constitutions around the world reserve powers of expropriation for the public interest (known popularly in the U.S. as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/eminent_domain">eminent domain</a>). For example, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.justice.gov.za/constitution/SAConstitution-web-eng.pdf">South Africa’s 1994 constitution</a>, the U.S. Constitution’s <a target="_blank" href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">5th amendment</a>, and the constitutions of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Spain_2011">Spain</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/englisch_gg/englisch_gg.html">Germany</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://legislative.gov.in/constitution-of-india/">India</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.aph.gov.au/constitution">Australia</a>, among many others, explicitly reserve expropriation powers. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201605/b4d2015pdf.pdf">Expropriation Act (2024)</a> requires that expropriation powers be used “for a public purpose, or in the public interest” and that such expropriations are “subject to compensation” as either agreed upon or approved by courts. There are, however, two main ways in which the Expropriation Act (2024) differs from earlier acts. First, it delineates the conditions of “public interest” more broadly. In the act, the public interest includes “the nation’s commitment to land reform, and to reforms to bring about equitable access to all South Africa’s natural resources.” While critics may claim this definition is uniquely expansionist, this language is taken directly from the South African constitution (<a target="_blank" href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/South_Africa_2012#s258">sec 25</a>) and reflects a long-standing rhetorical and legal commitment of the democratic state.  Secondly, the act establishes the threshold for uncompensated expropriation. Section 12 of the act outlines the “nil compensation” conditions as land taken in the public interest where 1) the land is not being used for development or commercial purposes, 2) where the state holds the land, but does not require it in future, 3) where the land has been abandoned, or 4) where the value of the land is exceeded by the value of current state investments in the land.These conditions are very limited, and do much to protect individual landowners. But these conditions have been the subject of controversy since the bill’s inception because they establish a threshold for expropriation of land without compensation.  <h3 class="wp-block-heading">The push for land policy changes in South Africa was a long time coming</h3> The 2024 Act repeals a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gov.za/documents/expropriation-act-19-may-2015-1026#:~:text=The%20Expropriation%20Act%2063%20of,provide%20for%20matters%20connected%20therewith.">1975 apartheid-era law</a> by the same name that established the system of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ufs.ac.za/docs/librariesprovider22/agricultural-economics-documents/general-documents/land-reform---willing-buyer-notes-1602-eng.pdf?Status=Master&sfvrsn=0">willing buyer-willing seller</a>, which has governed South Africa’s efforts to more equitably distribute land since democratization in 1994. The 1975 Act allowed the government to negotiate the purchase of land from owners on behalf of willing buyers, who are recipients of government grants.  Given that South Africa, under both colonial and apartheid governments, had instituted sweeping seizures of Black-owned land for the ruling white minority, land ownership patterns in the country were extremely skewed. In 1994, when the country transitioned to democratic rule, 86% of <a target="_blank" href="https://pov-tc.pbs.org/pov/downloads/2010/pov-promisedland-willingbuyer.pdf">agricultural land</a> was owned by white South Africans – who, at the time, made up less than 11% of the population. Between 1994 and 1998, people directly affected by earlier land seizures (between 1913 and 1993) could petition through the courts to have land bought from unwilling sellers, or receive the market value of the land in cash as a direct redress for past deprivation. However, many South Africans <a target="_blank" href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC-ad94a6f75">criticized</a> these restitution and redistribution programs as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/southern-africa/south-africa/land-reform-south-africa-fact-and-fiction">slow</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/08/23/land-reform-in-south-africa-has-been-slow-and-inept">inept</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://theconversation.com/land-reform-in-south-africa-is-doomed-unless-freed-from-political-point-scoring-114092">overly politicized</a>.  <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44278164">Public frustration</a> over the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/videos/2018/5/31/growing-anger-over-south-africas-stalled-land-reform">lack</a> of meaningful change in land ownership patterns through either restitution or redistribution has been growing since the late 2010s. The efforts to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025-01-24-expropriation-bill-decades-in-the-making-what-lies-ahead-for-south-africa/">pass a new bill</a> to overturn the apartheid-era legislation have been <a target="_blank" href="https://pmg.org.za/bill/973/">ongoing since 2020</a>, and this bill passed the legislature in March 2024.  South Africa’s May 2024 <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/south-africa-2024-election-anc-ramaphosa-zuma-unity-government/">elections</a> brought to power the first <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-coalition-government-explain-aecc75f6a6e79d962c0f92724e1a0b06">coalition government</a> in South Africa since 1996. Headed by Cyril Ramaphosa and his African National Congress Party, the coalition includes 11 parties (7 with cabinet positions), including the center-right Democratic Alliance, the largest opposition party in recent elections. While the legislature that passed the Expropriation Act was not under this current Government of National Unity (GNU), the government that will now implement it is made up of parties representing more than 70% of all voters in South Africa’s 2024 general election.  Given that the bill was passed through the legislature before the establishment of the GNU, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025-01-26-expropriation-act-splits-gnu-where-parties-stand/">some coalition members</a> have raised objections. The center-right <a target="_blank" href="https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/government/while-imperfect-its-not-true-expropriation-act-allows-land-to-be-seized-arbitrarily-says-da-20250203">Democratic Alliance</a> called for more procedural hurdles to nil compensation, while the right-wing Freedom Front Plus threatened <a target="_blank" href="https://www.vfplus.org.za/latest-news/expropriation-act-no-mention-of-null-compensation-raises-red-flags/">legal action</a> over the bill. The non-coalition left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters also criticized the bill for not going <a target="_blank" href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/eff-opposes-expropriation-act-but-will-defend-it-against-ff-plus/">far enough</a>. While there is some debate as to why it took Ramaphosa <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025-01-27-ramaphosas-signing-of-expropriation-act-may-be-a-carefully-calculated-political-chess-move/">nearly nine months</a> to sign the bill into law, a clear land policy has been a goal of Ramaphosa’s government and of his party for many years. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why South Africa’s land act isn’t like Zimbabwe’s</h3> Many critics of the Expropriation Act, especially those with direct ties to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/land-reform-south-africa-another-zimbabwe">South Africa</a>, will bring up the “Fast Track Land Reform” program in <a target="_blank" href="https://mckinneylaw.iu.edu/practice/law-reviews/iiclr/pdf/vol11p665.pdf">Zimbabwe</a> that took place in the early 2000s as a cautionary tale of government <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/2002/zimbabwe/ZimLand0302.htm">abuses</a>. Both countries experienced white-minority rule that created vast inequalities in land ownership through forced removals, land seizures, and privileging ownership for a small population of whites.  But land redistribution programs in Zimbabwe were managed exclusively by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781315873275/outcomes-post-2000-fast-track-land-reform-zimbabwe-lionel-cliffe-jocelyn-alexander-ben-cousins-rudo-gaidzanwa?refId=a89126e3-74f8-4671-ad65-e5186a521e36&context=ubx">presidency</a>, which empowered select loyal groups of private citizens to march on white-owned agricultural lands and force out the owners and their families and employees. Land seizures in Zimbabwe often resulted in violence against both employees and owners of farms. Managed entirely through executive branch action in a largely undemocratic context, expropriations in Zimbabwe proceeded without the oversight of either the legislature or the courts. South Africa’s Expropriation Bill (2024) is radically different. Unlike Zimbabwe’s land program, the South African legislation specifies narrow conditions under which nil compensation might be mandated, and outlines explicit procedures for judicial oversight and petition for landowners. South Africa has not empowered anyone outside of government to execute land seizures. And it’s important to note that South Africa’s democratic legislature passed this bill, which had multi-party support.  <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Reality check: What the Expropriation Act actually does</h3> Many critics of the Expropriation Bill have framed it as a radical break with legal precedent, but much of the legal framework of the bill comes directly from the South African constitution, and is in line with international practices. The key difference – the establishment of standards for expropriation without compensation – is narrowly tailored and constrained by the courts.  The bottom line? The accusations by Musk, Rubio, and Trump that South Africa’s government will conduct widespread confiscations of land under the Expropriation Act are unfounded, both legally and in practice. Additionally, South African groups that have been particularly prominent in pushing for international attention and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/truths-obscured-by-trumps-distortions?utm_source=Politicsweb+Daily+Headlines&utm_campaign=b4c5f7f33f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2025_02_09_08_51&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-b4c5f7f33f-130030437">criticism</a> of the Expropriation Bill have been quick to respond, saying that they <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-white-south-african-group-rejects-trumps-offer-of-asylum-in-the-us/">have not accused</a> the government of large-scale racially motivated expropriations, and they <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ogz2mv0oAus">do not want</a> refugee status. In fact, they would like to stay in South Africa. Nevertheless, the removal of all aid and development partnerships is likely to have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-05/us-aid-freeze-leaves-south-africa-405-million-shy-for-hiv-work?embedded-checkout=true">far-reaching</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/trump-s-funding-cuts-will-hurt-south-africa-and-the-region">consequences</a> for public health in South Africa, in particular. Carolyn E. Holmes is an assistant professor of political science at The University of Tennessee, Knoxville. She is the author of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.press.umich.edu/11518321/black_and_white_rainbow">The Black and White Rainbow: Reconciliation, Opposition, and Nation-Building in Democratic South Africa</a> (University of Michigan Press, 2020). She writes in her professional capacity, but does not represent the University of Tennessee, or speak on its behalf. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/misinformation-south-africa-new-land-act-trump-musk/">The misinformation on South Africa’s new land act</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://goodauthority.org/news/misinformation-south-africa-new-land-act-trump-musk/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">141392</post-id> </item> <item> <title>What’s next after the ceasefire in Gaza? 🎧</title> <link>https://goodauthority.org/news/whats-next-after-the-ceasefire-in-gaza/</link> <comments>https://goodauthority.org/news/whats-next-after-the-ceasefire-in-gaza/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Erik Voeten and Barbara Walter]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 10 Feb 2025 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[ceasefire]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Israel-Hamas]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://goodauthority.org/?post_type=news&p=141360</guid> <description><![CDATA[Barbara F. Walter discusses how Israeli domestic politics shapes what’s likely to happen now. Barbara F. Walter discusses how Israel and Gaza move beyond the ceasefire, and what comes next. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/whats-next-after-the-ceasefire-in-gaza/">What’s next after the ceasefire in Gaza? 🎧</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[Barbara F. Walter discusses how Israeli domestic politics shapes what’s likely to happen now. <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-1024x683.jpg" alt="After the ceasefire in Gaza, what comes next? Photo shows a woman walking through the rubble of bombed building in Gaza." class="wp-image-141359" style="object-fit:cover;width:800px;height:403px" srcset="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-300x200.jpg 300w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-768x512.jpg 768w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-211x141.jpg 211w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-422x281.jpg 422w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-25x17.jpg 25w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-50x33.jpg 50w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-606x404.jpg 606w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-1212x808.jpg 1212w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-376x251.jpg 376w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-752x501.jpg 752w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-177x118.jpg 177w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-354x236.jpg 354w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k-980x653.jpg 980w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/54055785453_59de666d39_k.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(cc) <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unwomen/54055785453/in/photostream/">UN Women</a>, Voices from Gaza, via Flickr. </figcaption></figure> About a year ago, I spoke with <a target="_blank" href="https://gps.ucsd.edu/faculty-directory/barbara-walter.html">Barbara F. Walter</a> about <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/what-it-will-take-to-end-the-israel-hamas-war/">what it would take to end the war in Gaza</a>. Barbara is the Rohr Professor of International Affairs at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego and one of the world’s leading experts on how civil wars begin and end. She is the author of the New York Times bestseller, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/How-Civil-Wars-Start-Stop/dp/0593137787">How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them</a>. An influential <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/critical-barrier-to-civil-war-settlement/AF2E36B866EC5E658266D01C5B00B42F">article</a> she wrote documents how parties in a civil war almost always fight until the end – unless an outside power steps in to guarantee a peace agreement. Now that <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/good-to-know-what-is-a-ceasefire-israel-hamas/">a ceasefire</a> in Gaza is in place, we revisited her predictions from last year (spoiler: They turned out to be quite accurate) and we talked about where to go from here. Our conversation took place just before U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to turn Gaza into the “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/05/politics/trump-gaza-takeover-analysis/index.html">Riviera of the Middle East</a>.” But we did explore various possible ways the main parties might move on from the ceasefire. Barbara highlighted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s need to keep his coalition together as the primary factor that will shape what’s likely to happen next.  Hear our conversation using the audio player below. You can also subscribe to our podcast on <a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/good-authority/id1721101530">Apple Podcasts</a>. <iframe title="What’s next after the ceasefire in Gaza?" allowtransparency="true" height="150" width="100%" style="border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player" src="https://www.podbean.com/player-v2/?i=4zs2y-17eeb60-pb&from=pb6admin&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Arial&skin=1&font-color=&logo_link=episode_page&btn-skin=666666" loading="lazy"></iframe> The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/whats-next-after-the-ceasefire-in-gaza/">What’s next after the ceasefire in Gaza? 🎧</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://goodauthority.org/news/whats-next-after-the-ceasefire-in-gaza/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">141360</post-id> </item> <item> <title>The coming politics of population decline</title> <link>https://goodauthority.org/news/politics-economics-of-population-decline-japan-us-world/</link> <comments>https://goodauthority.org/news/politics-economics-of-population-decline-japan-us-world/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Alexander Kustov]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 10 Feb 2025 10:30:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[immigration]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://goodauthority.org/?post_type=news&p=141213</guid> <description><![CDATA[Japan’s aging population and plummeting birth rate offer a peek at why policies need to shift around the world. Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. face declining birth rates, reshaping economies and policies. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/politics-economics-of-population-decline-japan-us-world/">The coming politics of population decline</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[Japan’s aging population and plummeting birth rate offer a peek at why policies need to shift around the world. <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="680" src="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-1024x680.jpg" alt="Photo of older Japanese women by Teo Romera. How is population decline changing politics and policies?" class="wp-image-141215" style="object-fit:cover;width:800px;height:400px" srcset="https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-1024x680.jpg 1024w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-300x199.jpg 300w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-768x510.jpg 768w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-211x140.jpg 211w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-422x280.jpg 422w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-25x17.jpg 25w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-50x33.jpg 50w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-608x404.jpg 608w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-1216x808.jpg 1216w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-376x250.jpg 376w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-752x500.jpg 752w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-177x118.jpg 177w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-354x235.jpg 354w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-1536x1021.jpg 1536w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-2048x1361.jpg 2048w, https://goodauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/10137846884_eb07900a6d_o-980x651.jpg 980w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo of older Japanese women (cc) Teo Romera via <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/teosaurio/10137846884">Flickr</a>.</figcaption></figure> Fifty years ago, Japan became one of the first countries to see its official fertility rate fall below the 2.1 children per woman needed to keep its population stable. At the time, few foresaw the profound impact of this government statistic. Today, Japan is grappling with <a target="_blank" href="https://time.com/7003107/japan-record-population-decline/">labor shortages</a>, shrinking towns, and millions of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3249648/japans-85-million-abandoned-rural-homes-or-akiya-have-become-cheap-option-foreigner-owners">abandoned homes</a>.  These challenges are now forcing shifts not only in social policies and technology but also in Japan’s long-standing approach of minimal immigration. Japan has now <a target="_blank" href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/japan-korea-immigration-evolve">begun to accept</a> hundreds of thousands of foreign workers to fill critical workforce gaps. This transformation is just the beginning of a global trend. The United States and other countries are also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1b139d1a-07ea-4612-9c2b-62c430119613">similar demographic challenges</a>, with declining birth rates and aging populations reshaping economies, labor markets, and political priorities. As these pressures intensify, governments may need to rethink long-held policies and norms. Japan’s experience suggests that depopulation disrupts economies – and upends politics-as-usual, creating new divides. But these shifts also create opportunities for previously unthinkable measures, like increased immigration. Demographics, for better or worse, could profoundly reshape societies.  <h3 class="wp-block-heading">The reality of declining fertility and aging</h3> Ever since the publication of Thomas Malthus’ influential “<a target="_blank" href="https://math.uchicago.edu/~shmuel/Modeling/Malthus,%20An%20essay%20on%20the%20principle%20of%20population.pdf">Essay on the Principle of Population</a>” in 1798, scholars have warned that unchecked population growth could outstrip resources, causing famine and societal collapse. While the Industrial Revolution <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/opinion/7-billion-reasons-why-malthus-was-wrong-idUS1496812632/">mitigated these fears through technological advances</a>, overpopulation anxieties persisted. These anxieties have driven controversial policies such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/21/1008656293/the-legacy-of-the-lasting-effects-of-chinas-1-child-policy">China’s one-child policy</a> and forced sterilization campaigns, influenced by Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 bestseller, The Population Bomb. These dire predictions, however, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/book-incited-worldwide-fear-overpopulation-180967499/">ultimately failed to materialize</a>. But now, the realities of population decline are a growing concern around the world. <a target="_blank" href="https://ourworldindata.org/un-population-2024-revision">U.N. projections</a> suggest that the global population will peak at 10 billion by the 2080s, with Europe peaking within a few years and Asia by the 2050s. This decline is primarily driven by falling fertility rates, further exacerbated by aging populations. Currently, most of the world’s population resides in countries with fertility rates below replacement level and a median age over 35, where not enough children are born to offset deaths among the older generation. High-income countries, except Israel, are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/policy-issues/ageing.html">aging rapidly</a>. And none of these countries maintain <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/fertility-rates.html?oecdcontrol-00b22b2429-var3=2021">replacement-level fertility</a>. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">What depopulation means for society</h3> Some environmentalists and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.liberalcurrents.com/degrowth-neither-left-nor-right-but-backward/">“degrowth” advocates</a> see population decline as a benefit. On the plus side, shrinking populations mean reduced pollution and congestion, and new opportunities for <a target="_blank" href="https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/japans-aging-society-as-a-technological-opportunity?lang=en">technological change</a> or <a target="_blank" href="https://earth.org/understanding-japans-demographic-crisis-an-alternative-perspective-on-population-decline/">societal transformation</a>, Yet depopulation clearly poses significant challenges. Fewer people mean fewer workers to pay taxes and support retirees. Dependency ratios – measuring the number of retirees supported by working-age people – are set to worsen. Currently, every old-age person is supported by three working-age people, on average. But that ratio is projected to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/policy-issues/ageing.html">drop to just two workers per retiree by 2050</a> in high-income countries. And this trend threatens the sustainability of pensions, welfare systems, and economic growth as fewer people innovate or address global challenges. Japan, alongside neighboring South Korea, is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66850943">leading the world</a> on all of these trends. Japan’s population peaked in 2008. Its working-age population began shrinking in the 1990s. Fertility rates have been below the 2.1 replacement level for over 50 years. More than 20 percent of people in Japan have been above age 65 for over 20 years, with Japan now claiming the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/old-age-dependency-ratio.html?oecdcontrol-00b22b2429-var3=2024">highest level of old-age dependency ratio</a> in the world. Depopulation in rural areas is particularly dire, leaving <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/07/asia/akiya-homes-problem-japan-intl-hnk/index.html">millions of abandoned houses</a> and thousands of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyx6wwp5d5o">elderly residents dying alone</a> or underserved as businesses and services close down. While most economists believe these trends are detrimental to a functioning economy that needs workers, some even argue that Japan’s decline in its working population <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31914">explains nearly all of its economic underperformance</a> over the last 30 years. Between 1991 and 2019, Japan’s economy – measured as the GDP growth per capita – grew much more slowly than the U.S. When looking at GDP growth per working-age adult, however, the gap between the two countries is much smaller. This shows that Japan’s slow overall growth is mostly due to its declining working-age population. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan tried to boost birth rates but with little success</h3> Japan was perhaps the first country to recognize “shōshi kōreika” (low birth rate and aging population) as a public problem, becoming the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/shrinkanomics-policy-lessons-from-japan-on-population-aging-schneider">world’s laboratory for drawing policy lessons</a> on population decline. In 1990, when Japan was still at its height as the second-largest economy in the world, the government reported that the fertility rate had fallen to 1.57, surpassing the superstition-induced low of 1966, when many couples <a target="_blank" href="https://medium.com/@josephcamcinnis/curse-of-the-fire-horse-55488f843eca">avoided having daughters</a> born under the “fire horse” zodiac sign. Since then, many commentators and scientists have been preoccupied with population decline, the public <a target="_blank" href="https://survey.gov-online.go.jp/h30/h30-life/summary.pdf">has consistently rated</a> it as among the <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/good-to-know-issue-importance-salience-politics-opinion-polls-vote/">most important problems</a> facing their country, and government officials began rolling out policies to get people to have more babies. These policies <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/world/asia/birth-rate-fertility-policy-japan.html">included</a> mandating up to a year of childcare leave, expanding subsidized daycare, encouraging men to take leave and share housework, and promoting shorter work hours. In 1992, the Japanese government introduced cash allowances for families with children. Most recently, in June 2023, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration launched the “<a target="_blank" href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/03/05/combating-depopulation-in-japan/">Direction on Strategy for Children’s Future</a>,” aiming to reverse declining birth rates by increasing child allowances and enhancing financial support for childbirth, childcare, and education. The government also plans to start giving <a target="_blank" href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3265830/shrinking-japan-wants-more-babies-dangling-financial-carrots-will-couples-bite?ref=hir.harvard.edu">“baby bonuses” of 100,000 yen ($670)</a> to expecting mothers starting next year.  On paper, it looks like the Japanese government has taken every possible measure to combat low fertility <a target="_blank" href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ssjj/jyz046">with little effect</a>, but the public thinks it could <a target="_blank" href="https://hgpi.org/en/research/wh-survey-2021-1.html">do more</a>. The current expanded monthly child allowance is only <a target="_blank" href="https://www.city.higashihiroshima.lg.jp/en/8/40227.html">15,000 yen</a> or $100, which is <a target="_blank" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/23/japan-kishida-economy-speech-women-birth-fertility-rate-population-demographics/">insufficient to support children</a>, especially in big cities like Tokyo. At the same time, despite parental leave policies applying to fathers too, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/002/2024/119/article-A002-en.xml">men rarely use them</a> due to a combination of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/@ed_protect/@protrav/@travail/documents/publication/wcms_travail_pub_5.pdf">social stigma against it</a> or fear of being laid off.  <a target="_blank" href="https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate">Research shows</a> that the most significant drivers of fertility declines worldwide are positive societal changes, such as women’s empowerment through education and workforce participation, and the increasing value placed on children’s well-being. Consequently, many scholars argue that while financial incentives <a target="_blank" href="https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Policy_responses_low_fertility_UNFPA_WP_Final_corrections_7Feb2020_CLEAN.pdf">may have</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ssb.no/en/forskning/discussion-papers/_attachment/412670?_ts=1705c2e2930">some impact</a>, they are unlikely to be effective without deeper cultural shifts that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00906/">address the trade-off women face between family and career</a> or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2019/05/51661/">encourage people to value having more children</a> for their own sake. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Depopulation forced Japan to embrace foreign workers</h3> Japan’s demographic challenges have spurred <a target="_blank" href="https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/japans-aging-society-as-a-technological-opportunity">a broad range of corporate initiatives</a> to develop technological solutions like robotics and AI. This positioning, along with government support, has helped make Japan a global leader in robotics and automation. In part, Japan’s historically low immigration made these efforts necessary, in contrast to other countries. However, automation <a target="_blank" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/immigration-before-automation-lant-pritchett">has its limits</a>, particularly in sectors of the economy that involve human care and personal interaction. For many years, <a target="_blank" href="https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/no-japans-actually-not-a-xenophobic-country/">the conventional wisdom</a> has been that Japan is an ethnically homogeneous country that simply can’t accept foreigners due to its ingrained <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/shinzo-abes-death-reveals-complex-story-of-discrimination-and-xenophobia/">xenophobia</a>. Radical right politicians and activists around the world glorified this image, seeking immigration bans in their own countries. However, it’s increasingly clear that this perception no longer holds true – perhaps <a target="_blank" href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-homogeneous-is-japan-really-repost">for quite some time</a>. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">And Japanese seem OK with that</h3> Japan’s foreign workers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/world/asia/japan-foreign-workers.html">have quadrupled since 2007</a> to more than 2 million, a remarkable shift considering the country’s long history of minimal immigration. Facing depopulation and <a target="_blank" href="https://sunypress.edu/Books/H/Help-Not-Wanted2">acute labor shortages</a>, in March 2024 the government announced a number of new visa programs for skilled and semi-skilled workers. The goal: <a target="_blank" href="https://hir.harvard.edu/improved-immigration-japan/">accept at least 800,000 more people</a> over the next five years. As journalist <a target="_blank" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/23/japan-immigration-policy-xenophobia-migration/?ref=hir.harvard.edu">Martin Gelin</a> explains, “Japan radically increased immigration – and no one protested.” And most of this happened under the dominant conservative Liberal Democratic Party government. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2024/migration-or-stagnation-aging-and-economic-growth-korea-today">Economists</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://lantpritchett.org/immigration-is-essential-and-impossible/">estimate</a> that Japan, however, alongside other countries facing depopulation like South Korea, would have to increase labor mobility even more in order to maintain or improve their current standard of living.  Japan’s foreign-born population – <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/one-in-ten-of-the-oecd-population-is-foreign-born_529eb923-en">currently at 3%</a> – is still the lowest among OECD countries, but it is a significant increase from under 1%, the rate for most of Japan’s modern history. Many Japanese, especially outside Tokyo, may have ha never met a foreigner before. However, this is changing as foreign workers are increasingly employed in convenience stores, running businesses, and providing care for the elderly. While Japan’s incremental approach – favoring temporary over permanent immigration – <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/world/asia/japan-foreign-workers.html">has faced</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/japans-incremental-change-in-a-de-facto-immigration-policy/">criticism</a>, this strategy likely helped <a target="_blank" href="https://lantpritchett.org/immigration-is-essential-and-impossible/">minimize political backlash</a> and ensure <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/Our-Interest-Democracies-Immigration-Popular/dp/0231218117/">public support for increased admissions</a>. Whether this support holds or whether the public would be willing to embrace more permanent immigration pathways as immigration continues to rise <a target="_blank" href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-japan-opened-itself-up-to-immigration">remains to be seen</a>. <h3 class="wp-block-heading">What this means for the U.S. and other democracies</h3> Japan’s demographic challenges offer a preview for other high-income democracies also facing declining birth rates and an aging population. Across Europe, East Asia, and North America, shrinking working-age populations, unfilled jobs, and depopulating towns are prompting governments to adopt measures like parental leave, childcare subsidies, and cash transfers.  The share of countries with deliberate pro-natal policies rose from 10% in 1976 to <a target="_blank" href="https://ifstudies.org/blog/pro-natal-policies-work-but-they-come-with-a-hefty-price-tag">28% by 2015</a>. Typically, these policies include benefits like extended parental leave and financial incentives such as child allowances or tax breaks. Yet even policies like this, even when paired with automation, are unlikely to fully reverse population decline. Some economists estimate that, as populations in rich countries shrink and grow older, these countries will collectively need at least <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/ba0cea22-e055-4715-9fc8-52fd0e367a66">450 million new immigrant workers</a> to help with the burden of providing for the elderly. Lant Pritchett, a development economist, succinctly captures this modern paradox: “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/ba0cea22-e055-4715-9fc8-52fd0e367a66">Mass immigration is demographically essential but politically impossible</a>.” His statement underscores a significant barrier: Populist leaders in many countries exploit people’s skepticism about immigration, complicating the adoption of immigration policies that are essential for demographic stability. Fortunately, the scenario in Japan and other countries suggests, <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/good-to-know-what-is-public-backlash/">public backlash</a> to rising immigration numbers <a target="_blank" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/can-trump-manage-immigration-effectively-not-just-reduce-it/">is not inevitable</a>.  As depopulation around the world becomes harder to ignore, these forces may create new <a target="_blank" href="https://columbusunderground.com/next-the-politics-of-population-decline-ds1/">political divides</a> over how governments should handle the depopulation challenge. While some politicians and activists already advocate for economic incentives, such as child tax credits, to encourage population growth, others propose more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-bans-child-free-propaganda-try-boost-birth-rate-2024-11-12/">coercive measures</a> like restricting speech, imposing a greater tax burden, or other penalties on childless adults. In the United States, falling birth rates are already a polarizing issue. Proposals range from expanded tax credits to cultural critiques, such as Vice President JD Vance’s controversial call to <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/jd-vance-childless-cat-ladies-birth-rates-555c0f78ef8dd4c13c88b9e8d5f0024a">promote childbearing</a> among American women.  Ultimately, how countries respond to depopulation will shape their futures. Japan’s approach to embracing immigration illustrates one potential response, underscoring the importance of addressing demographic challenges proactively before they escalate to crisis levels. <a target="_blank" href="https://alexanderkustov.org/">Alex Kustov</a> is a 2024-2025 Good Authority fellow. The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/politics-economics-of-population-decline-japan-us-world/">The coming politics of population decline</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://goodauthority.org">Good Authority</a>. ]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://goodauthority.org/news/politics-economics-of-population-decline-japan-us-world/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">141213</post-id> </item> </channel> </rss>