Mysteel解读：2023年港口库存盘点-我的钢铁网

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23:36</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="2046" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p>2023年北方港口玉米价格在国内外多方因素共振下，延续高位震荡。2023年玉米产量下降，新季玉米市场高开高走，而春节后，小麦价格经历了大跌后大涨，大量小麦进入饲料领域，玉米饲料需求的变化，直接影响了玉米全年的供需形势。</p> <p><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/12/31/41de0396ba3846a3bee54c8edcd1769a.png" alt="" width="492" height="265" /></p> <p>根据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a><a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>统计，2023年北方港口玉米集港量共计1163万吨，同比下降。2023年南北港口玉米价格倒挂局面较2021年有所缩小。今年东北产区使用第三方资金建库的贸易商不多，大量粮源集中在几个大贸易商手中。2023年2-3月份，是北方港口集港量的高峰期，下游集中性备货，贸易商走货情况较好。进入4月份下游饲料养殖需求持续疲软，生猪养殖利润大幅亏损。导致贸易商走货不好，同时产区余粮逐渐减少，玉米行情居高不下。产区和港口之间价格倒挂情况加剧，2023年4-10月份，北方港口玉米集港量持续低位，贸易商利润持续下降。10月份以后新粮上市，下游企业库存较低，加之饲料养殖处于全年相对的旺季，刚性需求增加，提振贸易商收购积极性，玉米集港量开始回升。</p> <p><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/01/02/933bb9103ab845ac8d0e93afe654b60c.png" alt="" width="600" height="323.4375" /></p> <p>根据Mysteel农产品统计，2023年北方港口玉米下海量共计1199万吨，同比下降。2023年南方进口替代品数量下降，但增加了糙米和小麦的使用量，对内贸玉米需求下降，北方港口玉米主要发往华南各港以及长江沿线各码头。今年北方港口中小贸易商经营较为谨慎，加之南北港口一直给不出较好的发运利润，中小贸易商在港口地区参与度下降，主要是大贸易商较为活跃。大贸易商南北港口统购统销，从全年的下海量来看，趋势相对平稳。但是下游饲料需求有淡旺季，2023年5月份以后，下游饲料需求疲软，造成大量与米滞留在港口，南方港口库存居高不下的局面。2023年9月份以后，南方港口玉米库存持续消化之后，同时进入传统需求旺季，北方港口下海量开始恢复，加之部分企业双节备货需求，北方港口玉米下海量进入季节性旺季。</p> <p><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/01/02/d5ea9217730d4b8b9f60c2b087e24928.png" alt="" width="600" height="323.4375" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #000000;">2023年北港玉米库存全年呈现稳步下降趋势。根</span><span style="color: #000000;">据</span><span style="color: #000000;">M</span><span style="color: #000000;">ysteel农产品</span><span style="color: #000000;">调研数据显示，北方港口年初玉米库存为203万吨，比去年同期低88万吨，同时也是近五年同期的最低水平；截止到10月底，北方港口玉米库存不足100万吨，较年初下降138万吨，为近五年来第二低位。港口贸易商从年初到年尾的购销心态发生了较大变化，玉米下海量全年低位，港口多数贸易商长时间走不动货，整体维持随收随走，谨慎收购的策略，全年以去库存为主。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/01/02/df2af3069f114eacb306bbc26b6dd8bb.png" alt="" width="600" height="323.4375" /></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：谢晋江 021-26093069 </br> 资讯监督：龙雪云 021-26094522 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a 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