Mysteel参考丨中厚板下游需求向好，供需格局有望紧平衡-我的钢铁网

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name="Description" content="概述：进入四季度，下游对于钢材的采购积极性明显下滑，市场信心不足，成材价格也出现了回落，并且钢厂利润一直处于低位水平。当下钢企盈利情况较差，部分地区已出现亏损，主动减产的情况增加。下游终端需求以及钢厂" /> <link rel="canonical" href="//m.mysteel.com/22/1205/09/51F34429F690542C_abc.html"> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/sui/sui.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/wsyCss.css?v=20221027" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/wsyCss20180930.css?v=17" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/permissions.css?v=11" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/css/common.css?v=20221212"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/bxCss.css?v=201705190952"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/addStyle.css?v=201704180942"> <link rel="stylesheet" href='//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/add.css?v=20181027'> <link rel="stylesheet" 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<p><strong>概述：</strong>进入四季度，下游对于钢材的采购积极性明显下滑，市场信心不足，成材价格也出现了回落，并且钢厂利润一直处于低位水平。当下钢企盈利情况较差，部分地区已出现亏损，主动减产的情况增加。下游终端需求以及钢厂检修计划是后续影响钢材价格变化的主要因素，在本就孱弱的需求下，钢企对于原料库存的采购依旧是持低库存管理，按需补库，保持较为灵活的采购策略。希望只能寄托在供给端，但是当下正处于淡旺季切换的阶段，市场对于后期的需求预期转弱，面对冬季库存的管理，钢企或将在明年3月份之前都会有主动减产降低成材以及原料库存的举措。对于中板这个品种而言，今年确实有较强的品种优势，临近年末，是否依旧会延续，本文结合当前市场的运行现状做简要分析。</p> <p><strong>一、2022<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>中厚板</a>价格前高后低 </strong></p> <p><strong>图1：2019年-2022年全国中厚板汇总价格（单位：元/吨）</strong></p> <p><img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/05/eeffaa108d224e2786c431bf2484f953.png" alt="" width="545" height="274" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>今年其实每一个季度都走出了不同的趋势，大致可以分为三个阶段。第一阶段（第一季度）春节、冬奥会、两会的召开，限产政策的频出，2月底俄乌局势使得全球通胀预期进一步强化，矿石、双焦价格大涨，成本端支撑也助推了成材的价格。</p> <p>第二阶段，传统需求旺季受疫情的冲击影响之大，强预期、弱现实进场。国内受到疫情反复拉锯，市场需求不佳，整体预期偏弱，国际形势和美联储超预期加息造成全球经济市场风险增强，国内大宗市场需求始终未有明显恢复，市场预期严重下挫，价格宽幅下跌，成本支撑逐步转为需求支撑。然而需求并没有兑现，6月起钢厂开始出现亏损，严重跌破成本线，主动停产减产。</p> <p>第三阶段就是三季度，前期由于亏损，钢企检修停产导致的产量下降，并且国家出台政策等利好消息，价格有所修复。</p> <p><strong>二、品种价差不断扩大，中板品种优势明显</strong></p> <p>由于热卷与中板生产流程较为一致，所以有着千丝万缕的联系。中板一直以来以稳著称，每年的振幅明显要小于热卷，涨势虽不如热卷，但抗跌性也是有目共睹的。从2021年开始，中板与热卷就处于宽幅的价差，只有在2月份俄乌局势导致的全球钢铁市场供需错配，海外市场价格大幅拉涨使得我国签署了大量热卷出口订单，国内热卷价格涨幅高于中板而使价差收窄。5月份市场情绪回归，价格也基本回归正常。从整个规律上而言，制造业的恢复速度偏慢加之热卷出口优势弱化，今年大力开展基建项目反而可以支撑中板与<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>价差拉开，四季度这一情况可以继续维持，但幅度空间比较有限。</p> <p><strong>图2：中板与热卷的价格&价差（单位：元/吨）</strong></p> <p><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/05/9f115ac6b3254edd9543738e0d431c26.png" alt="" width="579" height="279" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>地产拖累<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>价格，今年或难有起色，全年中板价格均高于螺纹钢。今年在稳增长的背景下，以货币政策宽松作为起点，抓手主要是以基建为主。但是由于上半年基建项目施工未有明显起色，四季度赶工期施工或有所回升并转为实物工作量，预计中板与螺纹钢的价差会再一次扩大。</p> <p><strong>图3：中板与螺纹钢的价格&价差（单位：元/吨）</strong></p> <p><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/05/f174532f951a445e9475bb6bb0f4bc5e.png" alt="" width="555" height="277" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>上半年容器板与中板价差不断扩大，价差最高点在900元/吨，刷新近几年的高价差记录。下半年有所收窄但仍高于去年同期，充分体现了品种板本身的抗跌性和需求的稳定性。国家对于高质量品种板的格局逐渐打开，在生产配比上，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锅炉容器板</a>的产量后期占比或有所增加。</p> <p><strong>图4：容器板与中板的价差（单位：元/吨）</strong></p> <p><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/05/5143a92b57ac4d60ab498d347e40c14d.png" alt="" width="528" height="237" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>2021-2022年造船板与中板的价差振幅明显扩大，足以说明船舶行业的用钢需求将保持稳定增长，对于价格起到一定的支撑。全年造船板价格下降空间有限。造船板与中厚板价差至少350元/吨；2022年全年价差均高于，并且价差一度扩大至700元/吨。</p> <p><strong>图5：造船板与中板的价差（单位：元/吨）</strong></p> <p><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/05/ecefb2a78c5546fca9ee26fecf11ad13.png" alt="" width="565" height="262" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong>三、2022年中板产量居高不下，供给压力渐显</strong></p> <p>2022年1季度，中板产能利用率最低，2-3季度开始回归并维持高位，由于今年中板的品种优势明显，导致钢企生产上，对中板的积极性高涨，尤其是品种板的利润比较可观。加之今年基建开始发力，对于中板的消费起到绝对支撑作用。产量上升后，反而对于供需维持平衡，后期产量可下的空间有限。从今年的中板影响月产量来看，预计11-12月份影响量在70-80万吨。</p> <p><strong>图6：2020-2022年全国中厚板产能利用率（单位：%）</strong></p> <p><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/05/38bf0e361b20405ab8cbab11ed06f5c4.png" alt="" width="537" height="249" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong>图7：中厚板影响月产量情况（单位：万吨）</strong></p> <p><img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/05/7a577c80bfd74cf79370ca7698af6744.png" alt="" width="546" height="271" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong>四、2022年5月出口量暴增之后逐步恢复正常</strong></p> <p>自2月起受乌俄局势影响，全球钢铁市场出现供需错配，海外市场价格大幅度上涨，价差快速放大至200余美元每吨。在全球市场资源短缺的情况下，我国签订大量出口订单，因此在订单暴增后的4-6月份，我国出口量出现大规模增量。2022年5月，我国热轧板卷出口继4月份大幅增长60.95%后再次大幅增长76%，同比增加193%；同样我国中板出口环比大幅增加141%，同比增加146%。为什么说5月份出口量暴增呢？主要是我国4月份受疫情影响导致的内陆运输受阻以及港口发货不畅等影响，出口增速并未出现大幅增加的情况，5月份在运输几乎完全畅通的情况下，延迟发出的订单开始陆续发货，出口量大增。进入7月份，情绪退化，短期内我国对于钢材出口税务类暂时无相关政策预期，地缘政治导致的全球部分地区资源短缺的情况也逐步缓解，对于钢材价格的影响缓和。但是中板的出口缩减明显要小与热卷，这也是中板今年强于热卷的因素之一。</p> <p><strong>图8：2021-2022年中厚板出口量（单位：元/吨）</strong></p> <p><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/05/f2be375f4e5f49d68eb966ac7cf5fcbf.png" alt="" width="555" height="274" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong>五、稳增长背景下吗，下游需求释放向好信号</strong></p> <p>根据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研，10月钢结构行业样本企业原料库存月环比增加3.5%，原料可用天数环比减少7.09%，假期下游补库预期渐显，叠加成材价格处于相对低位，采购需求尚在，库存呈小幅增量。10月份较9月份的新增订单情况环比好转，10月新增订单环比增长企业占40.42%，财政政策叠加季节性需求显现。政策推动与下游需求端钢需强度边际逐步恢复，对于钢结构的下游企业生产状况起到一定的支撑作用。</p> <p>根据Mysteel调研，10月机械行业样本企业原料库存月环比增加7.35%，原料日耗环比增加0.33%。节前备库导致机械行业原料库存小幅增加；工程机械行业10月新增订单环比增长企业占22.95%，订单环比下降的企业占18.03%，订单表现相对稳固的企业占59.02%，整体机械行业操作表现还是较为谨慎，而近期基建类订单和需求的释放，或将利好工程机械需求。</p> <p><strong>图9：全国挖掘机销量（单位：台）</strong></p> <p><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/05/6c01d544dbda4b0ebcce8cbb78e93342.png" alt="" width="554" height="254" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong>六、2022年中厚板市场后期走势预判</strong></p> <p>回顾近期国内中厚板市场，整体呈现价格续跌重心下移，短期来看主要关注以下几个因素：</p> <p>供应层面，近期中厚板产量略有下降，但幅度不明显，整体依旧处于去年同期上方水平。此轮价格下跌过后，钢厂多数进入亏损，后续生产动力会有所减弱。</p> <p>流通环节，华北地区价格持续压制南方现货价格，北方钢厂大幅下调出厂价格来换取订单，且资源抵达华东市场后低于当前华东现货价格，流动性略有提升，区域价差修复至合理水平，但较容易被打破。</p> <p>需求方面，疫情多点频发对终端需求有一定影响，好在供应链正常，运输没有限制，故总体影响有限。市场成交来看，此轮价格跌至偏低水平后，终端入市采购积极性被调动，成交量有所回升。综合来看，预计12月中厚板市场价格止跌企稳运行为主。</p><p>2022大宗商品年报出炉在即！欢迎抢鲜品读！</p> <p>报告聚焦钢材、煤焦、<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a>、<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>新材料、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0303-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁合金</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0306-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废钢</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>建筑材料</a>、<a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>等9大品种，由上海钢联100多位资深分析师倾力打造，深度剖析100余条细分产业链长周期数据，囊括行业热点、宏观政策等全方位解读，涵盖价格价差、成本利润、产能产量、库存、资源流向、区域供需平衡、市场竞争格局等基本面分析……</p> <p>点击链接了解更多：<a href="https://sem.mysteel.com/report.html" target="_blank" style="color:#3861ab">点击查看</a></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：陈群 021-26096771 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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