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2023亚洲钢铁论坛之圆桌论坛：市场新形势下的贸易机会-我的钢铁网
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href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>我的钢铁网</a>)，韩国Steel&Steel(스틸앤스틸)、日本JMD(日刊钢铁新闻)及印度SteelMint四方共同主办的“2023亚洲钢铁论坛(ASF2023)”在越南胡志明市召开。</p> <p>9月21日的亚洲钢铁论坛圆桌论坛，由上海钢联商务总监付中仪女士主持，并有幸邀请到越南钢协副会长Le VIET先生, CIEC集团高级总监蒋日忠先生, 俄罗斯Rusmet CEO Marina UGLOVSKAIA女士以及美达王马来西亚公司总经理Atsuya HAYASHI先生作为嘉宾，他们将以“市场新形势下的贸易机会”为主题，进行精彩互动。</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 399.278px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/09/21/6fd1e04170d3403f9dbb403901e79c49.png" width="600" height="399" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;" align="center"><strong>圆桌论坛</strong><strong>（</strong><strong>从左到右依次为上海钢联商务总监付中仪女士、越南钢协副主席Le VIET先生, CIEC集团高级总监蒋日忠先生, 俄罗斯Rusmet CEO Marina UGLOVSKAIA女士和美达王马来西亚公司总经理Atsuya HAYASHI先生</strong><strong>）</strong></p> <p><strong>主持人</strong><strong>：</strong><strong>在脱碳背景下，您认为越南、俄罗斯、东盟和中国市场存在哪些机遇和挑战？</strong></p> <p><strong>俄罗斯Rusmet CEO Marina UGLOVSKAIA</strong><strong>：</strong>俄罗斯在直接还原铁，包括热团状铁和海绵铁，生产方面具有巨大的潜力。这一资源比较环保，并且在俄罗斯被制裁后比<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0306-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废钢</a>便宜10%。俄罗斯拥有超过140亿吨的大型<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a>储量（含铁量），与巴西相当。因此，热团状铁的消费和出口增长趋势正在上升。目前对直接还原铁的出口没有限制。然而，挑战在于俄罗斯联邦只有一家直接还原铁生产商，预计到2050年之前可能只会有2-3家新生产商。</p> <p><strong>CIEC集团高级总监蒋日忠</strong><strong>：</strong>挑战有两点，一是中国钢材需求下滑，较峰值下降大概40%；二是中国钢材在国际市场上存在一定壁垒。一方面，中国钢材市场是有竞争力的，从客户口中得到积极的反馈，中国的钢材质量和服务甚至好于欧洲；另一方面，中国企业的生产能力也没下降。这是一个多变的时代，尤其是最近三年。只从贸易角度讨论，俄乌战争、土耳其地震带来了大量贸易机会，希望行业参与者能拥抱改变。</p> <p><strong>越南钢协副主席Le VIET</strong><strong>：</strong>越南一直将应对气候变化视为至关重要的任务，这是整个政治体系履行越南在联合国气候变化框架公约第26次缔约方大会（COP 26）以及实现2050年碳中和承诺的责任，越南钢铁行业正朝着绿色增长战略的目标迈进。作为发展中国家，越南对基础设施建设等领域的钢铁需求不断增加，钢铁行业占国家总排放的7%，占工业排放的46%，这为钢铁行业提供了挑战和机会。但全球经济低迷，通货膨胀、失业率上升等背景下，越南市场也面临着相同的挑战。越南当前的排放量（3700万吨）比行业整体2050年的目标（2000万吨）高出1.85倍。越南需要大量投资于现代技术，和进行技术改进，以降低排放和减少能源消耗。实现脱碳也需要大量的政府资金支持，是对钢铁行业的一大挑战。</p> <p><strong>美达王马来西亚公司总经理</strong><strong>Atsuya HAYASHI</strong><strong>：</strong>实现脱碳需要大量的政府资金支持，是对钢铁行业的一大挑战。</p> <p><strong>主持人：</strong><strong>俄罗斯作为重要的废钢出口国前景如何？俄罗斯未来是否会取消出口配额限制？</strong></p> <p><strong>俄罗斯Rusmet CEO Marina UGLOVSKAIA：</strong>俄罗斯废钢年产量约为5000万吨，收集量约为2500-3000万吨，消费量为2100-2600万吨。因此，可用于出口的废钢量每年超过2500万吨。俄罗斯拥有发达的废钢收集基础设施，有超过1万家持有许可证的废钢处理公司。</p> <p>从2023年年初到年底，俄罗斯政府设定了120万吨的关税配额。这个配额分配给出口商，出口税为每吨15欧元。如果超过配额出口，需要支付每吨290欧元，这并不划算。但我们希望从2024年1月开始国家政策能够发生改变。</p> <p><strong>主持人：</strong><strong>目前俄罗斯的金属半成品价格全球最低，甚至低于伊朗。这是为什么？</strong></p> <p><strong>俄罗斯Rusmet CEO Marina UGLOVSKAIA：</strong>是的，确实如此。俄罗斯每年出口从1200万吨到1600万吨的半成品产品。这些产品的生产需要资源，包括能源（天然气、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>、电力）和铁矿石或废钢等原材料。我们国家拥有自己的资源，比进口资源更便宜。</p> <p>举个例子，截至2023年9月的最后一个星期，钢铁废料的价格指数在国内市场为269美元（出厂价）。比土耳其便宜至少100美元。但如果我们看远东地区的价格，那么为197美元，至少比中国和印度便宜150-200美元。伊朗也拥有廉价的电力，但这还不足以满足不断增长的生产需求。而在俄罗斯，不存在这样的风险。</p> <p><strong>主持人：</strong><strong>俄罗斯是否计划扩大钢铁产能？</strong></p> <p><strong>俄罗斯Rusmet CEO Marina UGLOVSKAIA：</strong>目前，新建钢厂的趋势不明显，大部分俄罗斯投资者更多地投资于现有产能的现代化。</p> <p><strong>主持人：</strong><strong>越南钢铁未来需求前景如何？</strong></p> <p><strong>越南钢协副主席Le VIET：</strong>越南平均粗钢消费量仅249公斤，钢铁消费前景广阔。越南市场增长较慢，但有增长的趋势，预计今年越南经济将缓慢复苏，GDP增速回升至7%，接近三年前的水平。尽管房地产政策不明朗，但基础设施建设以及公共活动支出持续增加，将支撑越南钢铁业发展。机场项目已经启动，货币政策和投资政策有所放宽，有利于钢材需求。</p> <p><strong>主持人：</strong><strong>越南政府是否计划设立专项基金支持钢铁行业脱碳？如果没有，政府是否已经颁布激励措施以支持废钢行业发展（生产、回收和进出口）？</strong></p> <p><strong>越南钢协副主席Le VIET：</strong>目前越南政府尚未发布具体政策，但正在制定《环境法》中有关绿色债券的项目环境标准规定。尽管电炉炼钢在环保方面具有先天优势，但政府对于使用废钢生产和贸易的企业没有明确的激励政策，废钢的进出口税率均为0%。另一方面，特别是在全球钢铁行业计划在2050年实现碳中和目标的背景下，废钢供应十分有限。2022年越南废钢需求量约为950万吨，其中废钢进口量占越南总需求的约40%。</p> <p><strong>主持人：</strong><strong>鉴于欧洲的CBAM（碳边境调节机制）将于2026年生效，您认为这会对日本的钢铁行业会产生影响吗？市场将如何应对？</strong></p> <p><strong>美达王马来西亚公司总经理Atsuya HAYASHI：</strong>在CBAM的框架下，日本的原材料进口、生产和加工都受到了影响，可能会增加关税成本，从而影响出口竞争力。因此，日本的企业积极推进技术升级。</p> <p>免责声明：以上内容为嘉宾个人学术观点，未经嘉宾本人审核，不代表本网观点和立场。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：陈诗玥 021-26093406 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-7470-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a 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