Asia Times - America's options on the Korea nuke crisis

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</td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="10"> </td> <td width="407" align="left" valign="top"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td><font class="subhead"><strong class="head"> Korea </strong></font> </td> </tr> </table> <br> <table width="392" border="0" align="left" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top" width="392"><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><font color="#000000" size="3"><strong>America's options on the Korea nuke crisis</strong></font> <br>By Ehsan Ahrari <br><br>One of the most certain aspects of North Korea's nuclearization is how little the United States really knows about the specific nature of its program. No one really knows the quantity of the highly enriched uranium that it possesses. There is no certain knowledge regarding the professional capabilities of North Korea's nuclear scientists, or the state of its nuclear reactors. The element of ambiguity is so pervasive that one wonders how Washington will develop its policy options in dealing with Pyongyang in future negotiations. Obviously, the preceding statement is based on the assumption that "regime change" is not an option. <br><br> The most significant question about the North Korea is how advanced its nuclear technology really is at this stage. However, on this issue, the intelligence is sketchy, and there is a plethora of speculations. For instance, according to Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), "North Korea has enough plutonium to produce at least two nuclear weapons." The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) report of December 2001 stated that Pyongyang "has developed one to two nuclear weapons". In January 2002, the Central Intelligence Agency reported to the US Congress that North Korea had "enough plutonium for at most up to two nuclear weapons." <br><br>But North Korea has never tested a nuclear explosive. Where did it acquire its nuclear capabilities? US journalist Seymour Hersh claimed in January that Pakistan had been "sharing sophisticated technology, warhead design information, and weapons-testing data" with Pyongyang since 1997. Islamabad denied this, but US officials later affirmed the veracity of this information. The most important favor that Pakistan might have done, if one goes by Hersh's report, is to help North Korea "conduct a series of 'cold' tests, simulated explosions, using natural uranium, which are necessary to determine whether a nuclear device will detonate properly". <br><br>A recently issued report of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "Verifying North Korea's Disarmament", notes: "North Korea's plutonium program is the most advanced component of its nuclear complex." If that program is fully operational - even though published intelligence reports indicate that it is having trouble restarting its plutonium-based facilities - it is expected to make impressive increases in the size of its nuclear arsenal. NTI provided the following numbers: By this February, based on the quantity of plutonium from 1989, North Korea was expected to have one to two nuclear weapons; by May, six to seven weapons; by next May, eight to nine; by 2006, 29-30; and by 2007 73-90. These numbers are based on a uranium-enrichment program of 50- and 200-megawatt reactors that are under construction, and 8,000 spent fuel rods that Pyongyang currently has. <br><br>The whole issue of nuclear weapons is intrinsically linked to a country's capabilities of integrating nuclear-weapon technology with missile technology. North Korea has been doing respectably well with its nuclear-capable Nodong missile. Once it resolves the technological glitches of its Taepodong I, its missile arsenal will be a source of concern to Japan and South Korea. But the United States will worry when North Korea develops Taepodong II, which is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). <br><br>Another important issue for North Korea is the miniaturization of nuclear weapons. Miniaturization requires mastery of technological sophistication. A general understanding is that Pyongyang does not yet seem to possess that capability. Jonathan Wolfsthal of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said "the US government has known as far back as [the] mid-1990s that [North Korea] could reduce a nuclear weapon enough to fit on a Scud". <br><br>But whatever technology North Korea lacks, China possesses. Beijing long ago developed second-strike capabilities by developing multiple re-entry vehicles (MRVs) and multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), along with nuclear warhead miniaturization. The question is whether China is willing to transfer such capabilities - if it hasn't already done so. In the past, China's leaders have described their relationship with North Korea as "closer than gum and teeth". It is not known whether they still couch their ties with Pyongyang in those terms. If they do, then it is just a matter of time before North Korea will acquire the capabilities it requires. In the past, China has shown no compunction about transferring its long-range-missile technology to North Korea. For instance, the 1993 launch of Nodong required no telemetry, which is a characteristic of some Chinese missiles. In addition, the "missile mock-up" of the Taepodong 2 resembled China's CSS-2 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). <br><br>The most obvious choice for the United States is to insist that China refrain from transferring the MRV/MIRV and miniaturization technology to North Korea. But considering the past record of the Chinese leadership on this issue, no one assigns high probability that Washington will succeed in persuading China to that end. <br><br>The most effective option might be direct and multilateral negotiations aimed at unraveling Pyongyang's nuclear program. For that, North Korea will require guarantees against a future US military invasion. Even if Washington were to do so, Kim Jong-il might also remember that the United States walked away from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty of 1972, arguing that the changed international strategic environment has made that treaty irrelevant. Thus, Kim would think twice before accepting America's strongest possible guarantees against military attack, and would, in the final analysis, envisage nuclear weaponization as the most credible way of deterring a future US invasion. <br><br><i><b>Ehsan Ahrari,</b> PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst.</i> <br><br>(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20030801081605/mailto:content@atimes.com">content@atimes.com</a> for information on our sales and syndication policies.)</font> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top" width="392"> </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td width="105" align="middle" valign="top"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="44" align="middle" valign="center"><font class="time"><strong> Jul 19, 2003 </strong></font> </td> </tr> </table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="75"><img height="75" src="/web/20030801081605im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/1pix.gif" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="middle" valign="center"><a href="javascript:atprint();"><img height="26" src="/web/20030801081605im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/print.gif" width="91" border="0"></a></td> </tr> <tr> <td height="5" align="middle" valign="center"><img height="5" src="/web/20030801081605im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/1pix.gif" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="middle" valign="center"><a href="javascript:SendNews();"><img height="26" src="/web/20030801081605im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/email.gif" width="91" border="0"></a></td> </tr> <tr> <td height="5" align="middle" valign="center"><img height="5" src="/web/20030801081605im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/1pix.gif" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="middle" valign="center"><a href="javascript:Currency();"><img height="26" src="/web/20030801081605im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/currency.gif" width="91" border="0"></a></td> </tr> </table> <table width="104" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="104"> <hr size="1"> <img height="16" src="/web/20030801081605im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/relatedart.gif" width="101"><br> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td><br><font size="2"><a 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