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id="toc-Observations-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Changes_in_the_atmosphere" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Changes_in_the_atmosphere"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.1.1</span> <span>Changes in the atmosphere</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Changes_in_the_atmosphere-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Warming_of_the_planet" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Warming_of_the_planet"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.1.2</span> <span>Warming of the planet</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Warming_of_the_planet-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Ice,_snow,_permafrost,_rain,_and_the_oceans" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Ice,_snow,_permafrost,_rain,_and_the_oceans"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.1.3</span> <span>Ice, snow, permafrost, rain, and the oceans</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Ice,_snow,_permafrost,_rain,_and_the_oceans-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Hurricanes" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Hurricanes"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.1.4</span> <span>Hurricanes</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Hurricanes-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Factors_that_warm_or_cool_the_planet" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Factors_that_warm_or_cool_the_planet"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.2</span> <span>Factors that warm or cool the planet</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Factors_that_warm_or_cool_the_planet-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Climate_sensitivity" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Climate_sensitivity"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.3</span> <span>Climate sensitivity</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Climate_sensitivity-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Model-based_projections_for_the_future" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Model-based_projections_for_the_future"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.4</span> <span>Model-based projections for the future</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Model-based_projections_for_the_future-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Temperature_and_sea_level_rise_in_the_various_scenarios" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Temperature_and_sea_level_rise_in_the_various_scenarios"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.4.1</span> <span>Temperature and sea level rise in the various scenarios</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Temperature_and_sea_level_rise_in_the_various_scenarios-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Selected_quotes_from_the_Working_Group_I_Summary_for_Policymakers" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Selected_quotes_from_the_Working_Group_I_Summary_for_Policymakers"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.5</span> <span>Selected quotes from the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Selected_quotes_from_the_Working_Group_I_Summary_for_Policymakers-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Reaction_to_Working_Group_I" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Reaction_to_Working_Group_I"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.6</span> <span>Reaction to Working Group I</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Reaction_to_Working_Group_I-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Working_Group_II:_Impacts,_Adaptation_and_Vulnerability" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Working_Group_II:_Impacts,_Adaptation_and_Vulnerability"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Working_Group_II:_Impacts,_Adaptation_and_Vulnerability-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Working_Group_II:_Impacts,_Adaptation_and_Vulnerability-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Observations_2" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Observations_2"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.1</span> <span>Observations</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Observations_2-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Attribution_of_changes" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Attribution_of_changes"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.2</span> <span>Attribution of changes</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Attribution_of_changes-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Projections" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Projections"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.3</span> <span>Projections</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Projections-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Fresh_water" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Fresh_water"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.3.1</span> <span>Fresh water</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Fresh_water-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Ecosystems" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Ecosystems"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.3.2</span> <span>Ecosystems</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Ecosystems-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Food" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Food"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.3.3</span> <span>Food</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Food-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Coastal_systems" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Coastal_systems"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.3.4</span> <span>Coastal systems</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Coastal_systems-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Objections_to_original_WGII_language" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Objections_to_original_WGII_language"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.4</span> <span>Objections to original WGII language</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Objections_to_original_WGII_language-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Working_Group_III:_Mitigation_of_Climate_Change" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Working_Group_III:_Mitigation_of_Climate_Change"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Working_Group_III:_Mitigation_of_Climate_Change-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Working_Group_III:_Mitigation_of_Climate_Change-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Mitigation_in_the_short_and_medium_term_(until_2030)" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Mitigation_in_the_short_and_medium_term_(until_2030)"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5.1</span> <span>Mitigation in the short and medium term (until 2030)</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Mitigation_in_the_short_and_medium_term_(until_2030)-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Mitigation_in_the_long_term_(after_2030)" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Mitigation_in_the_long_term_(after_2030)"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5.2</span> <span>Mitigation in the long term (after 2030)</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Mitigation_in_the_long_term_(after_2030)-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Synthesis_Report" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Synthesis_Report"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>Synthesis Report</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Synthesis_Report-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Synthesis Report subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Synthesis_Report-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Anthropogenic_warming_could_lead_to_some_impacts_that_are_abrupt_or_irreversible" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Anthropogenic_warming_could_lead_to_some_impacts_that_are_abrupt_or_irreversible"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.1</span> <span>Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Anthropogenic_warming_could_lead_to_some_impacts_that_are_abrupt_or_irreversible-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Change_in_greenhouse_gas_concentrations_and_effect" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Change_in_greenhouse_gas_concentrations_and_effect"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.2</span> <span>Change in greenhouse gas concentrations and effect</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Change_in_greenhouse_gas_concentrations_and_effect-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Reception" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Reception"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>Reception</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Reception-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Reception subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Reception-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Response_to_AR4" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Response_to_AR4"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7.1</span> <span>Response to AR4</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Response_to_AR4-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Projected_date_of_melting_of_Himalayan_glaciers" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Projected_date_of_melting_of_Himalayan_glaciers"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7.2</span> <span>Projected date of melting of Himalayan glaciers</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Projected_date_of_melting_of_Himalayan_glaciers-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Overstatement_of_effects" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Overstatement_of_effects"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7.3</span> <span>Overstatement of effects</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Overstatement_of_effects-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Other" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Other"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7.4</span> <span>Other</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Other-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Notes" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Notes"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">9</span> <span>Notes</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Notes-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">10</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-References-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle References subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Sources" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Sources"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">10.1</span> <span>Sources</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Sources-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">11</span> <span>External links</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-External_links-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Toggle the 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Available in 15 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-15" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">15 languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%85_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B9_%D9%84%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%86%D8%A9_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9_%D9%84%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%BA%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA_%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%8A%D8%A9" title="تقرير التقييم الرابع للجنة الدولية للتغيرات المناخية – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="تقرير التقييم الرابع للجنة الدولية للتغيرات المناخية" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%8Ctvrt%C3%A1_hodnot%C3%ADc%C3%AD_zpr%C3%A1va_IPCC" title="Čtvrtá hodnotící zpráva IPCC – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Čtvrtá hodnotící zpráva IPCC" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Čeština</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vierter_Sachstandsbericht_des_IPCC" title="Vierter Sachstandsbericht des IPCC – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Vierter Sachstandsbericht des IPCC" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-el mw-list-item"><a href="https://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CE%A4%CE%AD%CF%84%CE%B1%CF%81%CF%84%CE%B7_%CE%AD%CE%BA%CE%B8%CE%B5%CF%83%CE%B7_%CE%B1%CE%BE%CE%B9%CE%BF%CE%BB%CF%8C%CE%B3%CE%B7%CF%83%CE%B7%CF%82_%CF%84%CE%B7%CF%82_IPCC" title="Τέταρτη έκθεση αξιολόγησης της IPCC – Greek" lang="el" hreflang="el" data-title="Τέταρτη έκθεση αξιολόγησης της IPCC" data-language-autonym="Ελληνικά" data-language-local-name="Greek" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Ελληνικά</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuarto_Informe_de_Evaluaci%C3%B3n_del_IPCC" title="Cuarto Informe de Evaluación del IPCC – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Cuarto Informe de Evaluación del IPCC" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li 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class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> of the <i>Fourth Assessment Report</i> vs. projected global average surface warming until 2100 </td></tr> <tr> <td><div class="center" style="width:auto; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;"><small><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf">AR4 <br />(Summary; PDF)</a><sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources"><span title="This citation requires a reference to the specific page or range of pages in which the material appears. (September 2011)">page needed</span></a></i>]</sup></small></div> </td> <td><br /><div class="center" style="width:auto; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;"><small>More economic focus</small></div> </td> <td><br /><div class="center" style="width:auto; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;"><small>More environmental focus</small></div> </td></tr> <tr valign="middle"> <td><a href="/wiki/Globalisation" class="mw-redirect" title="Globalisation">Globalisation</a><br /><small>(homogeneous world)</small> </td> <td align="center"><b>A1</b><br /> <small>rapid economic growth</small><br /><small>(groups: A1T; A1B; A1Fl)</small><br /><b>1.4–6.4 °C</b> </td> <td align="center"><b>B1</b><br /><small>global environmental sustainability</small><small>  </small><br /><b>1.1–2.9 °C</b> </td></tr> <tr valign="middle"> <td><a href="/wiki/Regionalisation" title="Regionalisation">Regionalisation</a><br /><small>(heterogeneous world)</small> </td> <td align="center"><b>A2</b><br /><small>regionally oriented<br />economic development</small><br /><b>2.0–5.4 °C</b> </td> <td align="center"><b>B2</b><br /><small>local environmental sustainability</small><br /><b>1.4–3.8 °C</b> </td></tr></tbody></table> <p><i>Climate Change 2007</i>, the <b>Fourth Assessment Report</b> (<b>AR4</b>) of the <a href="/wiki/United_Nations" title="United Nations">United Nations</a> <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC), was published in 2007 and is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning <a href="/wiki/Climate_change" title="Climate change">climate change</a>, its potential effects, and options for <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">adaptation</a> and mitigation.<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_press_flyer_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_press_flyer-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The report is the largest and most detailed summary of the climate change situation ever undertaken, produced by thousands of authors, editors, and reviewers from dozens of countries, citing over 6,000 <a href="/wiki/Peer-reviewed_journal" class="mw-redirect" title="Peer-reviewed journal">peer-reviewed</a> scientific studies. People from over 130 countries contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which took six years to produce.<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_press_flyer_2-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_press_flyer-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Contributors to AR4 included more than 2,500 scientific expert reviewers, more than 800 contributing authors, and more than 450 lead authors.<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_press_flyer_2-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_press_flyer-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>"Robust findings" of the Synthesis report include:<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <ul><li>"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level".<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>Most of the global average warming over the past 50 years is "very likely" (greater than 90% probability, based on expert judgement)<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_uncertainty_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_uncertainty-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> due to human activities.<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>"Impacts [of climate change] will very likely increase due to increased frequencies and intensities of some <a href="/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">extreme weather</a> events".<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>"Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries even if GHG emissions were to be reduced sufficiently for GHG concentrations to stabilise, due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks".<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations is discussed in <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">climate change mitigation</a>.</li> <li>"Some planned adaptation (of human activities) is occurring now; more extensive adaptation is required to reduce vulnerability to climate change".<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>"Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt".<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>"Many impacts [of climate change] can be reduced, delayed or avoided by mitigation".<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li></ul> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r886046785">.mw-parser-output .toclimit-2 .toclevel-1 ul,.mw-parser-output .toclimit-3 .toclevel-2 ul,.mw-parser-output .toclimit-4 .toclevel-3 ul,.mw-parser-output .toclimit-5 .toclevel-4 ul,.mw-parser-output .toclimit-6 .toclevel-5 ul,.mw-parser-output .toclimit-7 .toclevel-6 ul{display:none}</style><div class="toclimit-3"><meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Overview">Overview</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Overview"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Like previous assessment reports, it consists of four reports: </p> <ul><li>Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis</li> <li>Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability</li> <li>Working Group III: Mitigation</li> <li>Synthesis Report</li></ul> <p>Global warming projections from AR4<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> are shown below. The projections apply to the end of the 21st century (2090–2099), relative to temperatures at the end of the 20th century (1980–1999). Add 0.7 °C to projections to make them relative to pre-industrial levels instead of 1980–1999. (UK Royal Society, 2010, p=10<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (August 2019)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup>).<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Descriptions of the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios can be found in <a href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios" title="Special Report on Emissions Scenarios">Special Report on Emissions Scenarios</a>. </p> <table class="wikitable"> <caption>AR4 global warming projections<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th>Emissions<br />scenario</th> <th>Best estimate<br />(°C)</th> <th>"Likely" range<br />(°C) </th></tr> <tr> <td>B1</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>1.1 – 2.9 </td></tr> <tr> <td>A1T</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>1.4 – 3.8 </td></tr> <tr> <td>B2</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>1.4 – 3.8 </td></tr> <tr> <td>A1B</td> <td>2.8</td> <td>1.7 – 4.4 </td></tr> <tr> <td>A2</td> <td>3.4</td> <td>2.0 – 5.4 </td></tr> <tr> <td>A1FI</td> <td>4.0</td> <td>2.4 – 6.4 </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>"Likely" means greater than 66% probability of being correct, based on expert judgement.<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_uncertainty_4-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4_uncertainty-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Sections">Sections</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Sections"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist 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.sidebar-below{border-top:1px solid #aaa;border-bottom:1px solid #aaa}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-navbar{text-align:right;font-size:115%;padding:0 0.4em 0.4em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-list-title{padding:0 0.4em;text-align:left;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.6em;font-size:105%}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-list-title-c{padding:0 0.4em;text-align:center;margin:0 3.3em}@media(max-width:640px){body.mediawiki .mw-parser-output .sidebar{width:100%!important;clear:both;float:none!important;margin-left:0!important;margin-right:0!important}}body.skin--responsive .mw-parser-output .sidebar a>img{max-width:none!important}@media screen{html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-list-title,html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{background:transparent!important}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-list-title,html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{background:transparent!important}html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .sidebar{display:none!important}}</style><table class="sidebar sidebar-collapse nomobile nowraplinks"><tbody><tr><th class="sidebar-title"><a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on<br />Climate Change</a></th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-image"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change_Logo.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change_Logo.svg/250px-Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change_Logo.svg.png" decoding="async" width="250" height="137" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change_Logo.svg/375px-Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change_Logo.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change_Logo.svg/500px-Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change_Logo.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="512" data-file-height="280" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="color: var(--color-base)">IPCC Assessment Reports</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC First Assessment Report">First (1990)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992" title="IPCC supplementary report, 1992">1992 supplementary report</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Second Assessment Report">Second (1995)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Third Assessment Report">Third (2001)</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Fourth (2007)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Fifth Assessment Report">Fifth (2014)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">Sixth (2022)</a></li></ul></div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="color: var(--color-base)">IPCC Special Reports</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios" title="Special Report on Emissions Scenarios">Emissions Scenarios (2000)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Special_report_on_renewable_energy_sources_and_climate_change_mitigation" class="mw-redirect" title="Special report on renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation">Renewable energy sources (2012)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_managing_the_risks_of_extreme_events_and_disasters_to_advance_climate_change_adaptation_(SREX)" class="mw-redirect" title="Special Report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (SREX)">Extreme events and disasters (2012)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_Global_Warming_of_1.5_%C2%B0C" title="Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C">Global Warming of 1.5 °C (2018)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_Climate_Change_and_Land" title="Special Report on Climate Change and Land">Climate Change & Land (2019)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_the_Ocean_and_Cryosphere_in_a_Changing_Climate" title="Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate">Ocean & Cryosphere (2019)</a></li></ul></div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-below hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">UNFCCC</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organization" title="World Meteorological Organization">WMO</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Environment_Programme" title="United Nations Environment Programme">UNEP</a></li></ul></td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The report was released in four principal sections: </p> <ul><li>Contribution of Working Group I (WGI): <i>Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_AR4_WG1_2007_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_AR4_WG1_2007-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>Contribution of Working Group II (WGII): <i>Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>Contribution of Working Group III (WGIII): <i>Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III: <i>The Synthesis Report</i> (SYR).<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Working_Group_I:_The_Physical_Science_Basis">Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The full WGI report<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_AR4_WG1_2007_6-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_AR4_WG1_2007-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> was published in March 2007, and last updated in September of that year. It includes a <i>Summary for Policymakers</i> (SPM), which was published in February 2007, and a <i>Frequently Asked Questions</i> section. </p><p>This section of the report, <i>Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis</i>, assessed current scientific knowledge of "the natural and human drivers of climate change" as well as observed changes in climate. It looked at the ability of science to attribute changes to different causes, and made projections of future climate change. </p><p>It was produced by 676 authors (152 lead authors, 26 review editors, and 498 contributing authors) from 40 countries, then reviewed by over 625 expert reviewers. More than 6,000 peer-reviewed publications were cited.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Before being approved, the summary was reviewed line by line by representatives of 113 governments during the 10th session of WGI, in January to February 2007.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>On the issue of global warming and its causes, the SPM states that: </p> <ul><li>"Warming of the climate system is <a href="https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/unequivocal" class="extiw" title="wikt:unequivocal">unequivocal</a>."<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is<i> very likely</i> due to the observed increase in <a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_the_environment" title="Human impact on the environment">anthropogenic</a> greenhouse gas concentrations."<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li></ul> <p><i>Very likely</i> and <i>likely</i> mean "the assessed likelihood, using expert judgment" are over 90% and over 66%, respectively.<sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Observations">Observations</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Observations"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The report notes many observed changes in the Earth's climate including atmospheric composition, global average temperatures, ocean conditions, and other climate changes. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Changes_in_the_atmosphere">Changes in the atmosphere</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Changes in the atmosphere"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide" title="Carbon dioxide">Carbon dioxide</a>, <a href="/wiki/Methane" title="Methane">methane</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Nitrous_oxide" title="Nitrous oxide">nitrous oxide</a> are all long-lived <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gases" class="mw-redirect" title="Greenhouse gases">greenhouse gases</a>. </p> <ul><li>"Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values."<sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2005 (379 <a href="/wiki/Parts_per_notation" class="mw-redirect" title="Parts per notation">ppm</a>) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm).<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources"><span title="This citation requires a reference to the specific page or range of pages in which the material appears. (September 2011)">page needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li> <li>The amount of methane in the atmosphere in 2005 (1774 <a href="/wiki/Parts_per_notation" class="mw-redirect" title="Parts per notation">ppb</a>) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (320 to 790 ppb).<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources"><span title="This citation requires a reference to the specific page or range of pages in which the material appears. (September 2011)">page needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li> <li>The primary source of the increase in carbon dioxide is <a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel" title="Fossil fuel">fossil fuel</a> use, but <a href="/wiki/Land-use_change" class="mw-redirect" title="Land-use change">land-use changes</a> also make a contribution.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources"><span title="This citation requires a reference to the specific page or range of pages in which the material appears. (September 2011)">page needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li> <li>The primary source of the increase in methane is very likely to be a combination of human <a href="/wiki/Agriculture" title="Agriculture">agricultural activities</a> and fossil fuel use. How much each contributes is not well determined.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources"><span title="This citation requires a reference to the specific page or range of pages in which the material appears. (September 2011)">page needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li> <li>Nitrous oxide concentrations have risen from a pre-industrial value of 270 ppb to a 2005 value of 319 ppb. More than a third of this rise is due to human activity, primarily agriculture.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources"><span title="This citation requires a reference to the specific page or range of pages in which the material appears. (September 2011)">page needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Warming_of_the_planet">Warming of the planet</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Warming of the planet"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Cold days, cold nights, and frost events have become less frequent. Hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent. Additionally: </p> <ul><li>Eleven of the twelve years in the period (1995–2006) rank among the top 12 warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1880).</li> <li>Warming in the last 100 years has caused about a 0.74 °C increase in global average temperature. This is up from the 0.6 °C increase in the 100 years prior to the Third Assessment Report.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_heat_island" title="Urban heat island">Urban heat island</a> effects were determined to have negligible influence (less than 0.0006 °C per decade over land and zero over oceans) on these measurements.</li> <li>Observations since 1961 show that the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system, and that ocean temperatures have increased to depths of at least 3000 m (9800 ft).</li> <li>"Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years."</li> <li>It is likely that greenhouse gases would have caused more warming than we have observed if not for the cooling effects of volcanic and human-caused aerosols. See <a href="/wiki/Global_dimming" title="Global dimming">global dimming</a>.</li> <li>Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years (including both the <a href="/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period" title="Medieval Warm Period">Medieval Warm Period</a> and the <a href="/wiki/Little_Ice_Age" title="Little Ice Age">Little Ice Age</a>).</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Ice,_snow,_permafrost,_rain,_and_the_oceans"><span id="Ice.2C_snow.2C_permafrost.2C_rain.2C_and_the_oceans"></span>Ice, snow, permafrost, rain, and the oceans</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Ice, snow, permafrost, rain, and the oceans"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The SPM documents increases in wind intensity, decline of permafrost coverage, and increases of both drought and heavy precipitation events. Additionally: </p> <ul><li>"Mountain <a href="/wiki/Glacier" title="Glacier">glaciers</a> and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres."</li> <li>Losses from the land-based <a href="/wiki/Ice_sheets" class="mw-redirect" title="Ice sheets">ice sheets</a> of Greenland and Antarctica have very likely (>90%) contributed to sea level rise between 1993 and 2003.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Ocean warming">Ocean warming</a> causes seawater to expand, which contributes to sea level rising.</li> <li>Sea level rose at an average rate of about 1.8 mm/year during the years 1961–2003. The rise in sea level during 1993–2003 was at an average rate of 3.1 mm/year. It is not clear whether this is a long-term trend or just variability.</li> <li>Antarctic <a href="/wiki/Sea_ice" title="Sea ice">sea ice</a> shows no significant overall trend, consistent with a lack of warming in that region.</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Hurricanes">Hurricanes</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Hurricanes"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li>There has been an increase in <a href="/wiki/Tropical_cyclone" title="Tropical cyclone">hurricane</a> intensity in the <a href="/wiki/North_Atlantic" class="mw-redirect" title="North Atlantic">North Atlantic</a> since the 1970s, and that increase correlates with increases in <a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a>.</li> <li>The observed increase in hurricane intensity is larger than <a href="/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">climate models</a> predict for the sea surface temperature changes we have experienced.</li> <li>There is no clear trend in the number of hurricanes.</li> <li>Other regions appear to have experienced increased hurricane intensity as well, but there are concerns about the quality of data in these other regions.</li> <li>It is more likely than not (>50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity.</li> <li>It is likely (>66%) that we will see increases in hurricane intensity during the 21st century.</li></ul> <p>Table SPM-2 lists recent trends along with certainty levels for the trend having actually occurred, for a human contribution to the trend, and for the trend occurring in the future. In relation to changes (including increased hurricane intensity) where the certainty of a human contribution is stated as "more likely than not" footnote f to table SPM-2 notes "Magnitude of anthropogenic contributions not assessed. Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgment rather than formal attribution studies." </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Factors_that_warm_or_cool_the_planet">Factors that warm or cool the planet</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Factors that warm or cool the planet"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Radiative-forcings.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bb/Radiative-forcings.svg/300px-Radiative-forcings.svg.png" decoding="async" width="300" height="240" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bb/Radiative-forcings.svg/450px-Radiative-forcings.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bb/Radiative-forcings.svg/600px-Radiative-forcings.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="600" data-file-height="480" /></a><figcaption>Changes in <a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">radiative forcings</a> between 1750 and 2005 as estimated by the <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">IPCC</a></figcaption></figure> <p>AR4 describes warming and cooling effects on the planet in terms of <a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">radiative forcing</a>—the rate of change of energy in the system, measured as power per unit area (in SI units, W/m<sup>2</sup>). The report shows in detail the individual warming contributions (positive forcing) of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, <a href="/wiki/Halocarbons" class="mw-redirect" title="Halocarbons">halocarbons</a>, other human warming factors, and the warming effects of changes in solar activity. Also shown are the cooling effects (negative forcing) of <a href="/wiki/Particulate" class="mw-redirect" title="Particulate">aerosols</a>, <a href="/wiki/Land_cover" title="Land cover">land-use</a> changes, and other human activities. All values are shown as a change from pre-industrial conditions. </p> <ul><li>Total radiative forcing from the sum of all human activities is about +1.6 watts/m<sup>2</sup></li> <li>Radiative forcing from an increase of <a href="/wiki/Solar_radiation" class="mw-redirect" title="Solar radiation">solar intensity</a> since 1750 is about +0.12 watts/m<sup>2</sup></li> <li>Radiative forcing from carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide combined is very likely (>90%) increasing more quickly during the current era (1750–present) than at any other time in the last 10,000 years.</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Climate_sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Climate sensitivity"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</a> is defined as the amount of global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations.<sup id="cite_ref-ClimSens_16-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ClimSens-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It is likely to be in the range of 2 to 4.5 °C, with a best estimate of about 3 °C.<sup id="cite_ref-ClimSens_16-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ClimSens-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This range of values is not a projection of the temperature rise we will see in the 21st century, since the future change in carbon dioxide concentrations is unknown, and factors besides carbon dioxide concentrations affect temperature.<sup id="cite_ref-ClimSens_16-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ClimSens-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Model-based_projections_for_the_future">Model-based projections for the future</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: Model-based projections for the future"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Model projections are made based on an analysis of various computer climate models running within the different scenarios that were established in 2000 in the <a href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios" title="Special Report on Emissions Scenarios">Special Report on Emissions Scenarios</a> (the "SRES scenarios"). As a result, predictions for the 21st century are as shown below. </p> <ul><li>Surface air warming in the 21st century: <ul><li>Best estimate for a "low scenario"<sup id="cite_ref-low_17-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-low-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> is 1.8 °C with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9 °C (3.2 °F with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.2 °F)</li> <li>Best estimate for a "high scenario"<sup id="cite_ref-high_18-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-high-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> is 4.0 °C with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 °C (7.2 °F with a likely range of 4.3 to 11.5 °F)</li> <li>A temperature rise of about 0.1 °C per decade would be expected for the next two decades, even if greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations were kept at year 2000 levels.</li> <li>A temperature rise of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for the next two decades for all SRES scenarios.</li> <li>Confidence in these near-term projections is strengthened because of the agreement between past model projections and actual observed temperature increases.</li></ul></li> <li>Based on multiple models that all exclude <a href="/wiki/Ice_sheet" title="Ice sheet">ice sheet</a> flow due to a lack of basis in published literature,<sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> it is estimated that <a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">sea level rise</a> will be: <ul><li>in a low scenario<sup id="cite_ref-low_17-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-low-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> 18 to 38 cm (7 to 15 inches)</li> <li>in a high scenario<sup id="cite_ref-high_18-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-high-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> 26 to 59 cm (10 to 23 inches)</li></ul></li> <li>It is <i>very likely</i> that there will be an increase in frequency of warm spells, <a href="/wiki/Heat_wave" title="Heat wave">heat waves</a> and events of heavy rainfall.</li> <li>It is <i>likely</i> that there will be an increase in areas affected by <a href="/wiki/Drought" title="Drought">droughts</a>, intensity of <a href="/wiki/Tropical_cyclone" title="Tropical cyclone">tropical cyclones</a> (which include hurricanes and <a href="/wiki/Typhoon" title="Typhoon">typhoons</a>) and the occurrence of extreme <a href="/wiki/High_tide" class="mw-redirect" title="High tide">high tides</a>.</li> <li>"<a href="/wiki/Sea_ice" title="Sea ice">Sea ice</a> is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic ... In some projections, Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century."</li></ul> <p>Scenario-specific projections are based on analysis of multiple runs by multiple climate models, using the various SRES Scenarios. "Low scenario" refers to B1, the most optimistic scenario family. "High scenario" refers to A1FI, the most pessimistic scenario family. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Temperature_and_sea_level_rise_in_the_various_scenarios">Temperature and sea level rise in the various scenarios</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: Temperature and sea level rise in the various scenarios"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>There are six families of SRES scenarios, and AR4 provides projected temperature and sea level rises (excluding future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow) for each scenario family.<sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <ul><li>Scenario B1 <ul><li>Best estimate temperature rise of 1.8 °C with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9 °C (3.2 °F with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.2 °F)</li> <li>Sea level rise likely range [18 to 38 cm] (7 to 15 inches)</li></ul></li> <li>Scenario A1T <ul><li>Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C (4.3 °F with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 °F)</li> <li>Sea level rise likely range [20 to 45 cm] (8 to 18 inches)</li></ul></li> <li>Scenario B2 <ul><li>Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C (4.3 °F with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 °F)</li> <li>Sea level rise likely range [20 to 43 cm] (8 to 17 inches)</li></ul></li> <li>Scenario A1B <ul><li>Best estimate temperature rise of 2.8 °C with a likely range of 1.7 to 4.4 °C (5.0 °F with a likely range of 3.1 to 7.9 °F)</li> <li>Sea level rise likely range [21 to 48 cm] (8 to 19 inches)</li></ul></li> <li>Scenario A2 <ul><li>Best estimate temperature rise of 3.4 °C with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.4 °C (6.1 °F with a likely range of 3.6 to 9.7 °F)</li> <li>Sea level rise likely range [23 to 51 cm] (9 to 20 inches)</li></ul></li> <li>Scenario A1FI <ul><li>Best estimate temperature rise of 4.0 °C with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 °C (7.2 °F with a likely range of 4.3 to 11.5 °F)</li> <li>Sea level rise likely range [26 to 59 cm] (10 to 23 inches)</li></ul></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Selected_quotes_from_the_Working_Group_I_Summary_for_Policymakers">Selected quotes from the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: Selected quotes from the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li>"Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to the timescales required for removal of this gas from the atmosphere."</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Reaction_to_Working_Group_I">Reaction to Working Group I</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: Reaction to Working Group I"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In the weeks before publication of the first report, controversy broke out about the report's projections of sea-level change, which in the new report was estimated at less than previous estimates. The now-published text gives a warning that the new estimation of sea-level could be too low: "Dynamical processes related to ice flow not included in current models but suggested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets to warming, increasing future sea level rise." The mid-points of the sea level rise estimates are within ±10% of those from the <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Third Assessment Report">TAR</a>; but the range has narrowed. </p><p><a href="/wiki/Martin_Rees,_Baron_Rees_of_Ludlow" class="mw-redirect" title="Martin Rees, Baron Rees of Ludlow">Lord Rees</a>, the president of the <a href="/wiki/Royal_Society" title="Royal Society">Royal Society</a>, said, "This report makes it clear, more convincingly than ever before, that human actions are writ large on the changes we are seeing, and will see, to our climate. The IPCC strongly emphasises that substantial climate change is inevitable, and we will have to adapt to this. This should compel all of us—world leaders, businesses and individuals—towards action rather than the paralysis of fear. We need both to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases and to prepare for the impacts of climate change. Those who would claim otherwise can no longer use science as a basis for their argument."<sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>U.S. Energy Secretary <a href="/wiki/Samuel_Bodman" title="Samuel Bodman">Samuel Bodman</a> told a news conference that the report was "sound science" and "As the president has said, and this report makes clear, human activity is contributing to changes in our earth's climate and that issue is no longer up for debate."<sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Kurt_Volker" title="Kurt Volker">Kurt Volker</a>, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, said, "We support the recent IPCC report, in which U.S. scientists played a leading role."<sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Based on the report, 46 countries in a "Paris Call for Action" read out by French President <a href="/wiki/Chirac" class="mw-redirect" title="Chirac">Chirac</a>, have called for the creation of a <a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Environment_Organization" title="United Nations Environment Organization">United Nations Environment Organization</a> (UNEO), which is to have more power than the current <a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Environment_Programme" title="United Nations Environment Programme">United Nations Environment Programme</a> (UNEP), and is to be modelled after the more powerful <a href="/wiki/World_Health_Organization" title="World Health Organization">World Health Organization</a>. The 46 countries included the <a href="/wiki/European_Union" title="European Union">European Union</a> nations, but notably did not include the <a href="/wiki/United_States" title="United States">United States</a>, <a href="/wiki/China" title="China">China</a>, <a href="/wiki/Russia" title="Russia">Russia</a>, and <a href="/wiki/India" title="India">India</a>, the top four emitters of greenhouse gases.<sup id="cite_ref-24" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Working_Group_II:_Impacts,_Adaptation_and_Vulnerability"><span id="Working_Group_II:_Impacts.2C_Adaptation_and_Vulnerability"></span>Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=15" title="Edit section: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Working Group II's <i>Summary for Policymakers</i><sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> was released on 6 April 2007. The full report was released 18 September 2007. </p><p>WGII states that "evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases". </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Observations_2">Observations</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=16" title="Edit section: Observations"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Some observed changes have been associated with climate change at varying levels of confidence. </p><p>With a high confidence (about an 8 in 10 chance to be correct) WGII asserts that climate change has resulted in: </p> <ul><li>More and larger glacial lakes.</li> <li>Increasing ground instability in permafrost regions.</li> <li>Increasing rock avalanches in mountain regions.</li> <li>Changes in some Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems.</li> <li>Increased run-off and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier and snow-fed rivers.</li> <li>Changes affecting algae, plankton, fish and zooplankton because rising water temperatures and changes in: <ul><li>ice cover</li> <li>salinity</li> <li>oxygen levels</li> <li>water circulation</li></ul></li></ul> <p>With a very high confidence (about a 9 in 10 chance to be correct) WGII asserts that climate change is affecting terrestrial biological systems in that: </p> <ul><li>Spring events such as the unfolding of leaves, laying of eggs, and migration are happening earlier.</li> <li>There are poleward and upward (to higher altitude) shifts in ranges of plant and animal species.</li></ul> <p>WGII also states that the ocean has become more acidic because it has absorbed human-caused carbon dioxide. Ocean pH has dropped by 0.1, but how this affects marine life is not documented. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Attribution_of_changes">Attribution of changes</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=17" title="Edit section: Attribution of changes"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>WGII acknowledges some of the difficulties of attributing specific changes to human-caused global warming, stating that "Limitations and gaps prevent more complete attribution of the causes of observed system responses to anthropogenic warming." but found that the agreement between observed and projected changes was "Nevertheless ... sufficient to conclude with high confidence that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems." </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Projections">Projections</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=18" title="Edit section: Projections"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>WGII describes some of what might be expected in the coming century, based on studies and model projections. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Fresh_water">Fresh water</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=19" title="Edit section: Fresh water"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>It is projected with high confidence that: </p> <ul><li>Dry regions are projected to get drier, and wet regions are projected to get wetter: "By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10–40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10–30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics..."</li> <li>Drought-affected areas will become larger.</li> <li>Heavy precipitation events are very likely to become more common and will increase flood risk.</li> <li>Water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover will be reduced over the course of the century.</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Ecosystems">Ecosystems</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=20" title="Edit section: Ecosystems"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>It is projected with high confidence that: </p> <ul><li>The <a href="/wiki/Resilience_(ecology)" class="mw-redirect" title="Resilience (ecology)">resilience</a> of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by a combination of climate change and other stressors.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_removal" class="mw-redirect" title="Carbon removal">Carbon removal</a> by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid-century and then weaken or reverse. This would amplify climate change.</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Food">Food</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=21" title="Edit section: Food"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>It is projected with medium confidence (about 5 in 10 chance to be correct) that globally, potential food production will increase for temperature rises of 1–3 °C, but decrease for higher temperature ranges. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Coastal_systems">Coastal systems</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=22" title="Edit section: Coastal systems"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>It is projected with very high confidence that: </p> <ul><li>Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks such as coastal erosion due to climate change and sea-level rise.</li> <li>"Increases in sea-surface temperature of about 1–3 °C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals."</li> <li>"Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s."</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Objections_to_original_WGII_language">Objections to original WGII language</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=23" title="Edit section: Objections to original WGII language"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>US negotiators managed to eliminate language calling for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, according to Patricia Romero Lankao, a lead author from the <a href="/wiki/National_Center_for_Atmospheric_Research" title="National Center for Atmospheric Research">National Center for Atmospheric Research</a> (NCAR). The original draft read: "However, adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, and especially not over the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude. <i>Mitigation measures will therefore also be required.</i>" The second sentence does not appear in the final version of the report.<sup id="cite_ref-USChinaWarningsTonedDown_26-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-USChinaWarningsTonedDown-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>China objected to wording that said "based on observed evidence, there is very high confidence that many natural systems, on all continents and in most oceans, are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases". When China asked that the word "very" be stricken, three scientific authors balked, and the deadlock was broken only by a compromise to delete any reference to confidence levels.<sup id="cite_ref-USChinaWarningsTonedDown_26-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-USChinaWarningsTonedDown-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Working_Group_III:_Mitigation_of_Climate_Change">Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=24" title="Edit section: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Mitigation_of_global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Mitigation of global warming">Mitigation of global warming</a></div> <p>Working Group III's <i>Summary for Policymakers</i> (SPM)<sup id="cite_ref-WG3SPM_27-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-WG3SPM-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> was published on 4 May 2007 at the 26th session of the IPCC.<sup id="cite_ref-28" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The full WG III report was published online in September 2007.<sup id="cite_ref-29" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The IPCC convened in <a href="/wiki/Bangkok" title="Bangkok">Bangkok</a> on April 30 to start discussions on the draft Summary, with the participation of over 400 scientists and experts from about 120 countries.<sup id="cite_ref-30" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> At the full IPCC meeting on May 4, agreement was reached by the larger gathering of some 2,000 delegates. One of the key debates concerned a proposal to limit concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to between 445 parts per million and 650 parts per million to <a href="/wiki/Avoiding_dangerous_climate_change" class="mw-redirect" title="Avoiding dangerous climate change">avoid dangerous climate change</a>, with pressure from developing countries to raise the lower limit. Despite this, the figures from the original proposal were incorporated into the Summary for Policymakers.<sup id="cite_ref-31" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The Summary concludes that stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is possible at a reasonable cost, with stabilization between 445 ppm and 535 ppm costing less than 3% of global <a href="/wiki/Gross_domestic_product" title="Gross domestic product">GDP</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-32" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The WG III report analyses mitigation options for the main sectors in the near-term, addressing also cross-sectorial matters such as synergies, co-benefits, and trade-offs. It also provides information on long-term mitigation strategies for various stabilization levels, paying special attention to implications of different short-term strategies for achieving long-term goals.<sup id="cite_ref-principles_33-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-principles-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Mitigation_in_the_short_and_medium_term_(until_2030)"><span id="Mitigation_in_the_short_and_medium_term_.28until_2030.29"></span>Mitigation in the short and medium term (until 2030)</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=25" title="Edit section: Mitigation in the short and medium term (until 2030)"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The Summary for Policymakers concludes that there was a high level of agreement and much evidence that "there is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">greenhouse gas emissions</a> over the coming decades, that could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions below current levels",<sup id="cite_ref-34" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> taking into account financial and social costs and benefits.<sup id="cite_ref-35" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>35<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The technologies with the largest economic potential within this timescale are considered to be:<sup id="cite_ref-36" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-36"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>36<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <table class="wikitable"> <caption><b>Key mitigation technologies and practices by sector</b> </caption> <tbody><tr valign="top"> <td><b>Sector</b> </td> <td><b>Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available</b> </td> <td><b>Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030</b> </td></tr> <tr valign="top"> <td><a href="/wiki/Energy_supply" title="Energy supply">Energy Supply</a> </td> <td>Improved supply and distribution efficiency; fuel switching from <a href="/wiki/Coal" title="Coal">coal</a> to <a href="/wiki/Natural_gas" title="Natural gas">gas</a>; <a href="/wiki/Nuclear_power" title="Nuclear power">nuclear power</a>; <a href="/wiki/Renewable_energy" title="Renewable energy">renewable heat and power</a> (<a href="/wiki/Hydropower" title="Hydropower">hydropower</a>, <a href="/wiki/Solar_power" title="Solar power">solar</a>, <a href="/wiki/Wind_power" title="Wind power">wind</a>, <a href="/wiki/Geothermal_power" title="Geothermal power">geothermal</a> and <a href="/wiki/Biofuel" title="Biofuel">bioenergy</a>); <a href="/wiki/Cogeneration" title="Cogeneration">combined heat and power</a>; early applications of <a href="/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage" title="Carbon capture and storage">CCS</a> (e.g. storage of removed CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> from natural gas) </td> <td>Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power; advanced renewable energy, including <a href="/wiki/Tidal_power" title="Tidal power">tidal</a> and <a href="/wiki/Wave_power" title="Wave power">waves energy</a>, <a href="/wiki/Concentrating_solar_power" class="mw-redirect" title="Concentrating solar power">concentrating solar</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Photovoltaics" title="Photovoltaics">solar PV</a>. </td></tr> <tr valign="top"> <td><a href="/wiki/Transport" title="Transport">Transport</a> </td> <td>More fuel efficient vehicles; <a href="/wiki/Electric_vehicle" title="Electric vehicle">electric vehicle</a>; <a href="/wiki/Hybrid_vehicle" title="Hybrid vehicle">hybrid vehicles</a>; cleaner diesel vehicles; <a href="/wiki/Biofuel" title="Biofuel">biofuels</a>; modal shifts from <a href="/wiki/Road_transport" title="Road transport">road transport</a> to <a href="/wiki/Railway" class="mw-redirect" title="Railway">rail</a> and <a href="/wiki/Public_transport" title="Public transport">public transport</a> systems; non-motorised transport (<a href="/wiki/Cycling" title="Cycling">cycling</a>, <a href="/wiki/Walking" title="Walking">walking</a>); land-use and <a href="/wiki/Transportation_planning" title="Transportation planning">transport planning</a> </td> <td>Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries </td></tr> <tr valign="top"> <td><a href="/wiki/Low_energy_building" class="mw-redirect" title="Low energy building">Buildings</a> </td> <td><a href="/wiki/Low-energy_lighting" class="mw-redirect" title="Low-energy lighting">Efficient lighting</a> and <a href="/wiki/Daylighting_(architecture)" title="Daylighting (architecture)">daylighting</a>; more efficient electrical appliances and heating and cooling devices; improved cook stoves, improved <a href="/wiki/Building_insulation" title="Building insulation">insulation</a>; <a href="/wiki/Passive_solar_building_design" title="Passive solar building design">passive</a> and <a href="/wiki/Active_solar" class="mw-redirect" title="Active solar">active solar</a> design for heating and cooling; alternative refrigeration fluids, recovery and recycle of fluorinated gases </td> <td>Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as <a href="/wiki/Smart_meter" title="Smart meter">intelligent meters</a> that provide feedback and control; <a href="/wiki/Building_integrated_photovoltaics" class="mw-redirect" title="Building integrated photovoltaics">solar PV integrated in buildings</a> </td></tr> <tr valign="top"> <td>Industry </td> <td>More efficient end-use electrical equipment; <a href="/wiki/Heat_recovery" class="mw-redirect" title="Heat recovery">heat</a> and <a href="/wiki/Power_recovery" class="mw-redirect" title="Power recovery">power recovery</a>; material <a href="/wiki/Recycling" title="Recycling">recycling</a> and substitution; control of non-CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> gas emissions; and a wide array of process-specific technologies </td> <td>Advanced energy efficiency; CCS for <a href="/wiki/Cement" title="Cement">cement</a>, <a href="/wiki/Ammonia" title="Ammonia">ammonia</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Iron" title="Iron">iron</a> manufacture; inert <a href="/wiki/Electrode" title="Electrode">electrodes</a> for aluminium manufacture </td></tr> <tr valign="top"> <td><a href="/wiki/Agriculture" title="Agriculture">Agriculture</a> </td> <td>Improved crop and grazing land management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock and manure management to reduce <span class="chemf nowrap"><a href="/wiki/Methane" title="Methane">CH<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">4</sub></span></span></a></span> emissions; improved <a href="/wiki/Nitrogen_fertilizer" class="mw-redirect" title="Nitrogen fertilizer">nitrogen fertilizer</a> application techniques to reduce <span class="chemf nowrap"><a href="/wiki/Nitrous_oxide" title="Nitrous oxide">N<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">2</sub></span></span>O</a></span> emissions; dedicated <a href="/wiki/Energy_crop" title="Energy crop">energy crops</a> to replace <a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel" title="Fossil fuel">fossil fuel</a> use; improved energy efficiency </td> <td>Improvements of <a href="/wiki/Crop_yield" title="Crop yield">crop yields</a> </td></tr> <tr valign="top"> <td><a href="/wiki/Forestry" title="Forestry">Forestry</a>/<a href="/wiki/Forest" title="Forest">forests</a> </td> <td><a href="/wiki/Afforestation" title="Afforestation">Afforestation</a>; <a href="/wiki/Reforestation" title="Reforestation">reforestation</a>; <a href="/wiki/Forest_management" title="Forest management">forest management</a>; reduced <a href="/wiki/Deforestation" title="Deforestation">deforestation</a>; harvested wood product management; use of forestry products for bio-energy to replace fossil fuel use </td> <td>Tree species improvement to increase biomass productivity and <a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" title="Carbon sequestration">carbon biosequestration</a>. Improved remote sensing technologies for analysis of vegetation/ soil carbon sequestration potential and mapping land use change </td></tr> <tr valign="top"> <td><a href="/wiki/Waste" title="Waste">Waste</a> </td> <td><a href="/wiki/Biogas" title="Biogas">Landfill methane recovery</a>; waste <a href="/wiki/Waste-to-energy" title="Waste-to-energy">incineration with energy recovery</a>; <a href="/wiki/Composting" class="mw-redirect" title="Composting">composting</a> of organic waste; controlled <a href="/wiki/Waste_water_treatment" class="mw-redirect" title="Waste water treatment">waste water treatment</a>; <a href="/wiki/Recycling" title="Recycling">recycling</a> and <a href="/wiki/Waste_minimization" class="mw-redirect" title="Waste minimization">waste minimization</a> </td> <td><a href="/w/index.php?title=Biocover&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Biocover (page does not exist)">Biocovers</a> and <a href="/wiki/Biofilter" title="Biofilter">biofilters</a> to optimize <span class="chemf nowrap">CH<span class="nowrap"><span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline"></sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">4</sub></span></span></span> oxidation </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The IPCC estimates that stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases at between 445–535 ppm CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> <a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_equivalent" class="mw-redirect" title="Carbon dioxide equivalent">equivalent</a> would result in a reduction of average annual GDP growth rates of less than 0.12%. Stabilizing at 535 to 590 ppm would reduce average annual GDP growth rates by 0.1%, while stabilization at 590 to 710 ppm would reduce rates by 0.06%.<sup id="cite_ref-37" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> There was high agreement and much evidence that a substantial fraction of these mitigation costs may be offset by benefits to health as a result of reduced air pollution, and that there would be further cost savings from other benefits such as increased <a href="/wiki/Energy_security" title="Energy security">energy security</a>, increased agricultural production, and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems as well as, in certain countries, balance of trade improvements, provision of modern energy services to rural areas and employment.<sup id="cite_ref-38" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-38"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>38<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The IPCC considered that achieving these reductions would require a "large shift in the pattern of investment, although the net additional investment required ranges from negligible to 5–10%".They also concluded that it is often more cost effective to invest in end-use <a href="/wiki/Energy_conservation" title="Energy conservation">energy efficiency</a> improvement than in increasing energy supply.<sup id="cite_ref-39" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In terms of electricity generation, the IPCC envisage that <a href="/wiki/Renewable_energy" title="Renewable energy">renewable energy</a> can provide 30 to 35% of electricity by 2030 (up from 18% in 2005) at a <a href="/wiki/Carbon_price" title="Carbon price">carbon price</a> of up to US$50/t, and that <a href="/wiki/Nuclear_power" title="Nuclear power">nuclear power</a> can rise from 16% to 18%. They also warn that higher oil prices might lead to the exploitation of high-carbon alternatives such as <a href="/wiki/Oil_sand" class="mw-redirect" title="Oil sand">oil sands</a>, <a href="/wiki/Oil_shale" title="Oil shale">oil shales</a>, <a href="/wiki/Heavy_crude_oil" title="Heavy crude oil">heavy oils</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Synthetic_fuel" title="Synthetic fuel">synthetic fuels</a> from coal and gas, leading to increasing emissions, unless carbon capture and storage technologies are employed.<sup id="cite_ref-40" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>40<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In the transport sector there was a medium level of agreement and evidence that the multiple mitigation options may be counteracted by increased use, and that there were many barriers and a lack of government policy frameworks.<sup id="cite_ref-41" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-41"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>41<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>There was high agreement and much evidence that, despite many barriers (particularly in the developing countries), new and existing buildings could reduce emissions considerably, and that this would also provide other benefits in terms of improved air quality, social welfare and energy security.<sup id="cite_ref-42" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-42"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>42<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Mitigation_in_the_long_term_(after_2030)"><span id="Mitigation_in_the_long_term_.28after_2030.29"></span>Mitigation in the long term (after 2030)</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=26" title="Edit section: Mitigation in the long term (after 2030)"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The IPCC reported that the effectiveness of mitigation efforts over the next two or three decades would have a large impact on the ability to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gases at lower levels, and that the lower the ultimate stabilization levels, the more quickly emissions would need to peak and decline.<sup id="cite_ref-43" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-43"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>43<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For example, to stabilize at between 445 and 490 ppm (resulting in an estimate global temperature 2 to 2.4 °C above the pre-industrial average) emissions would need to peak before 2015, with 50 to 85% reductions on 2000 levels by 2050.<sup id="cite_ref-44" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-44"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>44<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>There was high agreement and much evidence that stabilization could be achieved by 2050 using currently available technologies, provided appropriate and effective incentives were put in place for their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion, and that barriers were removed.<sup id="cite_ref-45" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-45"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>45<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For stabilization at lower levels the IPCC agreed that improvements of <a href="/wiki/Carbon_intensity" class="mw-redirect" title="Carbon intensity">carbon intensity</a> need to be made much faster than has been the case in the past, and that there would be a greater need for efficient public and private <a href="/wiki/Research,_development_and_demonstration" class="mw-redirect" title="Research, development and demonstration">research, development and demonstration</a> efforts and investment in new technologies during the next few decades.<sup id="cite_ref-46" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-46"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>46<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The IPCC points out that government funding in real absolute terms for most energy research programmes has been flat or declining for nearly 20 years, and is now about half the 1980 level.<sup id="cite_ref-47" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-47"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>47<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Delays in cutting emissions would lead to higher stabilization levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts, as more of the current high-emission technologies would have been deployed.<sup id="cite_ref-48" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-48"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>48<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Among the measures that might be used, there was high agreement and much evidence that policies that put a price on the cost of carbon emissions could provide incentives for consumers and producers. Carbon prices of 5 to 65 US$/tCO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> in 2030 and 15 to 130 US$/tCO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> by 2050 are envisaged for stabilization at around 550 ppm by 2100.<sup id="cite_ref-49" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-49"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>49<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Synthesis_Report">Synthesis Report</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=27" title="Edit section: Synthesis Report"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>A draft version of the Synthesis Report, said to be subject to final copyedit, was published on 16 November 2007.<sup id="cite_ref-50" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-50"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>50<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1244412712">.mw-parser-output .templatequote{overflow:hidden;margin:1em 0;padding:0 32px}.mw-parser-output .templatequotecite{line-height:1.5em;text-align:left;margin-top:0}@media(min-width:500px){.mw-parser-output .templatequotecite{padding-left:1.6em}}</style><blockquote class="templatequote"> <p>The Synthesis Report goes one step further [than the first three Climate Change 2007 Working Group Reports]: it is the decisive effort to integrate and compact this wealth of information into a readable and concise document explicitly targeted to the policymakers. </p><p> The Synthesis Report also brings in relevant parts some material contained in the full Working Group Reports over and above what is included in the Summary for Policymakers in these three Reports. It is designed to be a powerful, scientifically authoritative document of high policy relevance, which will be a major contribution to the discussions at the 13th Conference of the Parties in Bali during December 2007. In fact, this Conference was postponed to December to allow the IPCC Synthesis Report to come out first.</p><div class="templatequotecite">— <cite><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/press-ar4/ar4-media-advisory.pdf">Press conference for the release of the IPCC Synthesis Report</a></cite></div></blockquote> <p>The six topics<sup id="cite_ref-51" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-51"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>51<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> addressed in the Synthesis Report are: </p> <ol><li>Observed changes in climate and its effects (WGI and WGII).</li> <li>Causes of change (WGI and WGIII).</li> <li>Climate change and its impacts in the near and long term under different scenarios (WGI and WGIII).</li> <li>Adaptation and mitigation options and responses, and the inter-relationship with sustainable development, at global and regional levels (WGII and WGIII).</li> <li>The long term perspective: scientific and socio-economic aspects relevant to adaptation and mitigation, consistent with the objectives and provisions of the Convention [sic], and in the context of sustainable development (WGI and WGIII).</li> <li>Robust findings, key uncertainties (WGI, WGII and WGIII).</li></ol> <p>The "Convention" mentioned in Topic 5 is the <a href="/wiki/UN_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" class="mw-redirect" title="UN Framework Convention on Climate Change">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> (<a href="/wiki/UNFCCC" class="mw-redirect" title="UNFCCC">UNFCCC</a>). </p><p>The key findings from the AR4 Synthesis Report will be discussed Wednesday 13 December 2007<sup id="cite_ref-52" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-52"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>52<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (<a href="/wiki/UNFCCC" class="mw-redirect" title="UNFCCC">UNFCCC</a> COP 13—CMP 3) in Bali, Indonesia, which takes place 3–14 December (see UNFCCC home page<sup id="cite_ref-53" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-53"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>53<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>). </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Anthropogenic_warming_could_lead_to_some_impacts_that_are_abrupt_or_irreversible">Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=28" title="Edit section: Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The SPM states that "Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change."<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (September 2011)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p> <ul><li>"There is medium confidence that approximately 20–30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5–2.5°C (relative to 1980–1999). As global average temperature increase exceeds about 3.5°C, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40–70% of species assessed) around the globe."<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (September 2011)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li> <li>"Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply metres of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas, with greatest effects in river deltas and low-lying islands. Such changes are projected to occur over millennial time scales, but more rapid sea level rise on century time scales cannot be excluded."<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (September 2011)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Change_in_greenhouse_gas_concentrations_and_effect">Change in greenhouse gas concentrations and effect</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=29" title="Edit section: Change in greenhouse gas concentrations and effect"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The following table is based on Chapter 2 of the Working Group 1 Report.<sup id="cite_ref-ar4_54-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar4-54"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>54<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <table class="wikitable"> <tbody><tr> <th> </th> <th colspan="2">Mole fractions and their changes </th> <th colspan="2"><a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">Radiative forcing</a> </th></tr> <tr> <td><b>Species</b> </td> <td><b>2005</b> </td> <td><b>Change since 1998</b> </td> <td><b>2005 (W m<sup>−2</sup>)</b> </td> <td><b>1998 (%)</b> </td></tr> <tr> <td>CO<sub>2</sub> </td> <td>379 ± 0.65 μmol/mol </td> <td>+13 μmol/mol </td> <td>1.66 </td> <td>+13 </td></tr> <tr> <td>CH<sub>4</sub> </td> <td>1,774 ± 1.8 nmol/mol </td> <td>+11 nmol/mol </td> <td>0.48 </td> <td>– </td></tr> <tr> <td>N<sub>2</sub>O </td> <td>319 ± 0.12 nmol/mol </td> <td>+5 nmol/mol </td> <td>0.16 </td> <td>+11 </td></tr> <tr> <td>CFC-11 </td> <td>251 ± 0.36 pmol/mol </td> <td>−13 </td> <td>0.063 </td> <td>−5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>CFC-12 </td> <td>538 ± 0.18 pmol/mol </td> <td>+4 </td> <td>0.17 </td> <td>+1 </td></tr> <tr> <td>CFC-113 </td> <td>79 ± 0.064 pmol/mol </td> <td>−4 </td> <td>0.024 </td> <td>−5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>HCFC-22 </td> <td>169 ± 1.0 pmol/mol </td> <td>+38 </td> <td>0.033 </td> <td>+29 </td></tr> <tr> <td>HCFC-141b </td> <td>18 ± 0.068 pmol/mol </td> <td>+9 </td> <td>0.0025 </td> <td>+93 </td></tr> <tr> <td>HCFC-142b </td> <td>15 ± 0.13 pmol/mol </td> <td>+6 </td> <td>0.0031 </td> <td>+57 </td></tr> <tr> <td>CH<sub>3</sub>CCl<sub>3</sub> </td> <td>19 ± 0.47 pmol/mol </td> <td>−47 </td> <td>0.0011 </td> <td>−72 </td></tr> <tr> <td>CCl<sub>4</sub> </td> <td>93 ± 0.17 pmol/mol </td> <td>−7 </td> <td>0.012 </td> <td>−7 </td></tr> <tr> <td>HFC-125 </td> <td>3.7 ± 0.10 pmol/mol </td> <td>+2.6 </td> <td>0.0009 </td> <td>+234 </td></tr> <tr> <td>HFC-134a </td> <td>35 ± 0.73 pmol/mol </td> <td>+27 </td> <td>0.0055 </td> <td>+349 </td></tr> <tr> <td>HFC-152a </td> <td>3.9 ± 0.11 pmol/mol </td> <td>+2.4 </td> <td>0.0004 </td> <td>+151 </td></tr> <tr> <td>HFC-23 </td> <td>18 ± 0.12 pmol/mol </td> <td>+4 </td> <td>0.0033 </td> <td>+29 </td></tr> <tr> <td>SF<sub>6</sub> </td> <td>5.6 ± 0.038 pmol/mol </td> <td>+1.5 </td> <td>0.0029 </td> <td>+36 </td></tr> <tr> <td>CF<sub>4</sub> (PFC-14) </td> <td>74 ± 1.6 pmol/mol </td> <td>– </td> <td>0.0034 </td> <td>– </td></tr> <tr> <td>C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub> (PFC-116) </td> <td>2.9 ± 0.025 pmol/mol </td> <td>+0.5 </td> <td>0.0008 </td> <td>+22 </td></tr> </tbody></table> <p><br /> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Reception">Reception</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=30" title="Edit section: Reception"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Criticism_of_the_IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report" title="Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report">Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report</a></div> <p><i>The New York Times</i> reported that "the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, 'very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950".<sup id="cite_ref-rosenthal_55-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-rosenthal-55"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>55<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The same newspaper wrote: "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel's parlance, this level of certainty is labeled 'very likely'. Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression."<sup id="cite_ref-On_the_Climate_Change_Beat,_Doubt_Gives_Way_to_Certainty_56-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-On_the_Climate_Change_Beat,_Doubt_Gives_Way_to_Certainty-56"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>56<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The <a href="/wiki/Associated_Press" title="Associated Press">Associated Press</a> summarized the position on sea level rise:<sup id="cite_ref-foxnews_57-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-foxnews-57"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>57<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1244412712"><blockquote class="templatequote"><p>On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century. An additional 3.9 to 7.8 inches are possible if recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues.</p></blockquote> <p>The Fourth Assessment Report has been the subject of criticism. Skeptics of anthropogenic global warming contend that their claims are not sufficiently incorporated in the report. Others regard the IPCC as too conservative in its estimates of potential harm from climate change. The report has also been criticized for inclusion of an erroneous date for the projected demise of the <a href="/wiki/Criticism_of_the_IPCC_AR4#Projected_date_of_melting_of_Himalayan_glaciers" class="mw-redirect" title="Criticism of the IPCC AR4">Himalayan glaciers</a>. </p><p>Related to the subject of global warming in general, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report has been discussed by various bodies such as government officials, special interest groups and scientific organizations; see the article "<a href="/wiki/Politics_of_global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Politics of global warming">Politics of global warming</a>" for a thorough discussion of the politics surrounding the phenomenon, and the positions of the various parties involved. </p><p>The United Nations appointed an independent board of scientists to "review the workings of the world's top climate science panel" which reported in September 2010;<sup id="cite_ref-NYT_Review_Board_58-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NYT_Review_Board-58"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>58<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> see <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change#InterAcademy_Council_review_in_2010" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change#InterAcademy Council review in 2010</a>. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Response_to_AR4">Response to AR4</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=31" title="Edit section: Response to AR4"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Several <a href="/wiki/Science_academy" class="mw-redirect" title="Science academy">science academies</a> have referred to and/or reiterated some of the conclusions of AR4. These include: </p> <ul><li>Joint-statements made in 2007,<sup id="cite_ref-2007_science_academies_statement_59-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2007_science_academies_statement-59"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>59<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> 2008<sup id="cite_ref-60" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and 2009<sup id="cite_ref-61" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-61"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>61<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> by the science academies of Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa and the <a href="/wiki/G8" title="G8">G8</a> nations (the "G8+5").</li> <li>Publications by the <a href="/wiki/Australian_Academy_of_Science" title="Australian Academy of Science">Australian Academy of Science</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-62" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-62"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>62<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>A joint-statement made in 2007 by the <a href="/wiki/Network_of_African_Science_Academies" title="Network of African Science Academies">Network of African Science Academies</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-63" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-63"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>63<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>A statement made in 2010 by the Inter Academy Medical Panel<sup id="cite_ref-64" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-64"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>64<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This statement has been signed by 43 scientific academies.<sup id="cite_ref-65" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-65"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>a<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li></ul><p> The <a href="/wiki/Netherlands_Environmental_Assessment_Agency" title="Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency">Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency</a> (PBL, <i>et al.</i>, 2009;<sup id="cite_ref-66" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-66"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>65<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> 2010)<sup id="cite_ref-67" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-67"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>66<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> has carried out two reviews of AR4. These reviews are generally supportive of AR4's conclusions.<sup id="cite_ref-68" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-68"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>67<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-pbl_2010_ipcc_review_69-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-pbl_2010_ipcc_review-69"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>68<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> PBL (2010)<sup id="cite_ref-pbl_2010_ipcc_review_69-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-pbl_2010_ipcc_review-69"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>68<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> make some recommendations to improve the IPCC process. A literature assessment by the US National Research Council (US NRC, 2010)<sup id="cite_ref-us_nrc_2010_summary_70-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-us_nrc_2010_summary-70"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>69<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> concludes:</p><blockquote><p><b>Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for—and in many cases is already affecting—a broad range of human and natural systems</b> [<i>emphasis in original text</i>]. ... This conclusion is based on a substantial array of scientific evidence, including recent work, and is consistent with the conclusions of recent assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program ..., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report ..., and other assessments of the state of scientific knowledge on climate change.</p></blockquote> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Projected_date_of_melting_of_Himalayan_glaciers">Projected date of melting of Himalayan glaciers</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=32" title="Edit section: Projected date of melting of Himalayan glaciers"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Some errors have been found in the IPCC AR4 Working Group II report. Two errors include the melting of <a href="/wiki/Himalayas" title="Himalayas">Himalayan</a> <a href="/wiki/Glacier" title="Glacier">glaciers</a> (see <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change#Projected_date_of_melting_of_Himalayan_glaciers" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">later section</a>), and Dutch land area that is below sea level.<sup id="cite_ref-71" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-71"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>70<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p> A paragraph in the 2007 Working Group II report ("Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability"), chapter 10 included a projection that Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035:</p><blockquote><p>Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 km<sup>2</sup> by the year 2035 (WWF, 2005).</p></blockquote><p>This projection was not included in the final summary for policymakers. The IPCC has since acknowledged that the date is incorrect, while reaffirming that the conclusion in the final summary was robust. They expressed regret for "the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in this instance". The date of 2035 has been correctly quoted by the IPCC from the WWF report, which has misquoted its own source, an <a href="/w/index.php?title=International_Commission_on_Snow_and_Ice_Hydrology&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="International Commission on Snow and Ice Hydrology (page does not exist)">ICSI</a> report "Variations of Snow and Ice in the past and at present on a Global and Regional Scale". </p><p><a href="/wiki/Rajendra_K._Pachauri" title="Rajendra K. Pachauri">Rajendra K. Pachauri</a> responded in an interview with <i>Science</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-72" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-72"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>71<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Overstatement_of_effects">Overstatement of effects</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=33" title="Edit section: Overstatement of effects"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Former IPCC chairman <a href="/wiki/Robert_Watson_(scientist)" class="mw-redirect" title="Robert Watson (scientist)">Robert Watson</a> said, regarding the Himalayan glaciers estimation, "The mistakes all appear to have gone in the direction of making it seem like climate change is more serious by overstating the impact. That is worrying. The IPCC needs to look at this trend in the errors and ask why it happened".<sup id="cite_ref-Times_Online_2010-02-15_73-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Times_Online_2010-02-15-73"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>72<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Martin Parry, a climate expert<sup id="cite_ref-74" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-74"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>73<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> who had been co-chair of the IPCC working group II, said that "What began with a single unfortunate error over Himalayan glaciers has become a clamour without substance" and the IPCC had investigated the other alleged mistakes, which were "generally unfounded and also marginal to the assessment".<sup id="cite_ref-guardian_2010-02-14_75-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-guardian_2010-02-14-75"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>74<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Other">Other</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=34" title="Edit section: Other"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report featured a graph showing 12 proxy based temperature reconstructions, including the three highlighted in the 2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR); <a href="#CITEREFMannBradleyHughes1999">Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999</a> as before, <a href="#CITEREFJonesBriffaBarnettTett1998">Jones et al. 1998</a> and <a href="#CITEREFBriffa2000">Briffa 2000</a> had both been calibrated by newer studies. In addition, analysis of the <a href="/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period" title="Medieval Warm Period">Medieval Warm Period</a> cited reconstructions by <a href="#CITEREFCrowleyLowery2000">Crowley & Lowery 2000</a> (as cited in the TAR) and <a href="#CITEREFOsbornBriffa2006">Osborn & Briffa 2006</a>. Ten of these 14 reconstructions covered 1,000 years or longer. Most reconstructions shared some data series, particularly tree ring data, but newer reconstructions used additional data and covered a wider area, using a variety of statistical methods. The section discussed the <a href="/wiki/Divergence_problem" title="Divergence problem">divergence problem</a> affecting certain tree ring data.<sup id="cite_ref-AR4_2k_years_76-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-AR4_2k_years-76"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>75<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=35" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239009302">.mw-parser-output .portalbox{padding:0;margin:0.5em 0;display:table;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:175px;list-style:none}.mw-parser-output .portalborder{border:1px solid var(--border-color-base,#a2a9b1);padding:0.1em;background:var(--background-color-neutral-subtle,#f8f9fa)}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-entry{display:table-row;font-size:85%;line-height:110%;height:1.9em;font-style:italic;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-image{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em;vertical-align:middle;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-link{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em 0.2em 0.2em 0.3em;vertical-align:middle}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .portalleft{clear:left;float:left;margin:0.5em 1em 0.5em 0}.mw-parser-output .portalright{clear:right;float:right;margin:0.5em 0 0.5em 1em}}</style><ul role="navigation" aria-label="Portals" class="noprint portalbox portalborder portalright"> <li class="portalbox-entry"><span class="portalbox-image"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Crystal_energy.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/Crystal_energy.svg/29px-Crystal_energy.svg.png" decoding="async" width="29" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/Crystal_energy.svg/44px-Crystal_energy.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/Crystal_energy.svg/59px-Crystal_energy.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="130" data-file-height="124" /></a></span></span><span class="portalbox-link"><a href="/wiki/Portal:Energy" title="Portal:Energy">Energy portal</a></span></li></ul> <table> <tbody><tr> <td> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Avoiding_Dangerous_Climate_Change" class="mw-redirect" title="Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change">Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Individual_and_political_action_on_climate_change" class="mw-redirect" title="Individual and political action on climate change">Individual and political action on climate change</a></li> <li><a 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href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios" title="Special Report on Emissions Scenarios">Special Report on Emissions Scenarios</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_energy_resources_and_consumption" class="mw-redirect" title="World energy resources and consumption">World energy resources and consumption</a></li></ul> </td></tr></tbody></table> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Notes">Notes</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=36" title="Edit section: Notes"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist reflist-lower-alpha"> <div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-65"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-65">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1184024115">.mw-parser-output .div-col{margin-top:0.3em;column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .div-col-small{font-size:90%}.mw-parser-output .div-col-rules{column-rule:1px solid #aaa}.mw-parser-output .div-col dl,.mw-parser-output .div-col ol,.mw-parser-output .div-col ul{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .div-col li,.mw-parser-output .div-col dd{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}</style><div class="div-col"> <ul><li>Academia Nacional de Medicina de Buenos Aires</li> <li>Academy of Medical Sciences of Armenia</li> <li>Austrian Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Bangladesh Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Academia Boliviana de Medicina</li> <li>Brazilian Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Cameroon Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Chinese Academy of Engineering</li> <li>Academia Nacional de Medicina de Colombia</li> <li>Croatian Academy of Medical Sciences</li> <li>Croatian Academy of Sciences and Arts</li> <li>Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Egypt</li> <li>Académie Nationale de Médecine, France</li> <li>The Delegation of the Finnish Academies of Science and Letters</li> <li>Union of German Academies of Sciences and Humanities</li> <li>Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher, Leopoldina</li> <li>Academia de Ciencias Medicas, Fisicas y Naturales de Guatemala</li> <li>Hungarian Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Indonesian Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei</li> <li>TWAS, academy of sciences for the developing world</li> <li>Islamic World Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Science Council of Japan</li> <li>African Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Kenya National Academy of Sciences</li> <li>The National Academy of Sciences, Rep. of Korea</li> <li>Akademi Sains Malaysia</li> <li>National Academy of Medicine of Mexico</li> <li>Nigerian Academy of Science</li> <li>National Academy of Science and Technology, Philippines</li> <li>Polish Academy of Sciences</li> <li>The Caribbean Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Russian Academy of Medical Sciences</li> <li>Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts</li> <li>Academy of Science of South Africa</li> <li>National Academy of Sciences of Sri Lanka</li> <li>Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences</li> <li>The Tanzania Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Thai Academy of Science and Technology</li> <li>Turkish Academy of Sciences</li> <li>Uganda National Academy Sciences</li> <li>Academy of Medical Sciences, UK</li> <li>Institute of Medicine, US NAS</li></ul> </div></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=37" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1239543626"><div class="reflist reflist-columns references-column-width" style="column-width: 30em;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">according to: <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/index.cgi?More_Info-Emissions">Canadian Institute for Climate Studies, CCIS project: <i>Frequently Asked Questions </i></a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160118101108/http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/index.cgi?More_Info-Emissions">Archived</a> January 18, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>; <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/091.htm#4.2.1.">Table 4- 2: Overview of SRES scenario quantifications</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160602233315/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/091.htm#4.2.1.">Archived</a> June 2, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_SRES2000">IPCC SRES 2000</a>; <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/081.htm">Figure 2.11: Schematic illustration of SRES scenarios</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160602233315/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/081.htm">Archived</a> June 2, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in the <i>Third</i> AR?? (That's the url: ipcc_<i>tar</i>.)<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (September 2011)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-ar4_press_flyer-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_press_flyer_2-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_press_flyer_2-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_press_flyer_2-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/04/ipcc-flyer-low.pdf">Press flyer announcing 2007 report</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210625172322/https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/04/ipcc-flyer-low.pdf">Archived</a> 2021-06-25 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a> IPCC</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-ar4_main_observations-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-3"><sup><i><b>d</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-4"><sup><i><b>e</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-5"><sup><i><b>f</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-6"><sup><i><b>g</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-7"><sup><i><b>h</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-8"><sup><i><b>i</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_main_observations_3-9"><sup><i><b>j</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite class="citation book cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/syr/"><i>Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Climate Change 2007): Summary for Policymakers</i></a>. IPCC. 2007. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-92-9169-122-7" title="Special:BookSources/978-92-9169-122-7"><bdi>978-92-9169-122-7</bdi></a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210820204443/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/syr/">Archived</a> from the original on 2021-08-20<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2021-08-12</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Synthesis+Report+of+the+IPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report+%28Climate+Change+2007%29%3A+Summary+for+Policymakers&rft.pub=IPCC&rft.date=2007&rft.isbn=978-92-9169-122-7&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Freport%2Far4%2Fsyr%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-ar4_uncertainty-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_uncertainty_4-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ar4_uncertainty_4-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation book cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/syr/"><i>Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Climate Change 2007)</i></a>. Introduction: IPCC. 2007. p. 27. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-92-9169-122-7" title="Special:BookSources/978-92-9169-122-7"><bdi>978-92-9169-122-7</bdi></a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210820204443/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/syr/">Archived</a> from the original on 2021-08-20<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2021-08-12</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Synthesis+Report+of+the+IPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report+%28Climate+Change+2007%29&rft.place=Introduction&rft.pages=27&rft.pub=IPCC&rft.date=2007&rft.isbn=978-92-9169-122-7&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Freport%2Far4%2Fsyr%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-5">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFHoegh-Guldberg2020" class="citation web cs1">Hoegh-Guldberg (2020-02-05). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/">"Impacts of 1.5 °C global warming on natural and human systems"</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210726094953/https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/">Archived</a> from the original on 2021-07-26<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2021-08-12</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Impacts+of+1.5+%C2%B0C+global+warming+on+natural+and+human+systems&rft.date=2020-02-05&rft.au=Hoegh-Guldberg&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Fsr15%2Fchapter%2Fchapter-3%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-IPCC_AR4_WG1_2007-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-IPCC_AR4_WG1_2007_6-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-IPCC_AR4_WG1_2007_6-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG12007">IPCC AR4 WG1 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-7">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG22007">IPCC AR4 WG2 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-9">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_SYR2007">IPCC AR4 SYR 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/statement/WGIsummary22122009.html">IPCC website: Summary Description of the IPCC Process</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160622190918/https://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/statement/WGIsummary22122009.html">Archived</a> June 22, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-11">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/press/prwg2feb07.htm">IPCC adopts major assessment of climate change science</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20071115201553/http://www.ipcc.ch/press/prwg2feb07.htm">Archived</a> November 15, 2007, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-12"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-12">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-direct-observations.html">SPM: Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160516191232/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-direct-observations.html">Archived</a> May 16, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf">p. 5</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20171220143410/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf">Archived</a> 2017-12-20 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, and figure SPM.3, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG12007">IPCC AR4 WG1 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-13"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-13">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-understanding-and.html">SPM: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223539/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-understanding-and.html">Archived</a> May 24, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf">p. 10</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20171220143410/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf">Archived</a> 2017-12-20 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG12007">IPCC AR4 WG1 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-14"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-14">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html">SPM: footnote 6</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20181102212113/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html">Archived</a> 2018-11-02 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG12007">IPCC AR4 WG1 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-15"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-15">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html">Summary for Policy Makers, WG1, AR4, pg 3.</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161021173115/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html">Archived</a> October 21, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-ClimSens-16"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-ClimSens_16-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ClimSens_16-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-ClimSens_16-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains2-3.html">SYR 2.3: Climate sensitivity and feedbacks</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223541/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains2-3.html">Archived</a> May 24, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-low-17"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-low_17-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-low_17-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text">"<i>... a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, ... but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.</i>" <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html">SPM: Projections of Future Changes in Climate</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161126145250/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html">Archived</a> November 26, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-high-18"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-high_18-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-high_18-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text">"<i>... a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. ... technological emphasis: fossil intensive</i>" <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html">SPM: Projections of Future Changes in Climate</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161126145250/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html">Archived</a> November 26, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-19"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-19">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">This contrasts with the TAR, which included these <a href="/wiki/Ice_dynamics" class="mw-redirect" title="Ice dynamics">ice dynamics</a>, and had a higher top end sea level rise estimate. The report states that recent observations suggest that ice flow dynamics could lead to additional rise: "<i>Dynamical processes related to ice flow not included in current models but suggested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets to warming, increasing future sea level rise. Understanding of these processes is limited and there is no consensus on their magnitude.</i>" <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html">SPM: Projections of Future Changes in Climate</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161126145250/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html">Archived</a> November 26, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-20"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-20">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html">Table SPM.3</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161126145250/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html">Archived</a> 2016-11-26 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, p. 13, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG12007">IPCC AR4 WG1 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-21"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-21">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6324093.stm">"UK scientists' IPCC reaction"</a>. <a href="/wiki/BBC_News" title="BBC News">BBC News</a>. 2007-02-02. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20070830231116/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6324093.stm">Archived</a> from the original on 2007-08-30<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2007-02-03</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=UK+scientists%27+IPCC+reaction&rft.date=2007-02-02&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.bbc.co.uk%2F1%2Fhi%2Fsci%2Ftech%2F6324093.stm&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-22"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-22">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFDuray2007" class="citation news cs1">Duray, Dan (2007-02-03). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20070218181000/http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/montereyherald/living/health/16614710.htm">"Bush endorses climate study"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Monterey_County_Herald" class="mw-redirect" title="Monterey County Herald">Monterey County Herald</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/montereyherald/living/health/16614710.htm">the original</a> on 2007-02-18.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Bush+endorses+climate+study&rft.date=2007-02-03&rft.aulast=Duray&rft.aufirst=Dan&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.montereyherald.com%2Fmld%2Fmontereyherald%2Fliving%2Fhealth%2F16614710.htm&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-23"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-23">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/80465.htm">Post-Kyoto Surprise: America's Quiet Efforts to Cut Greenhouse Gases Are Producing Results</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160823092041/http://2001-2009.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/80465.htm">Archived</a> August 23, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-24"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-24">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFDoyle2007" class="citation news cs1">Doyle, Alister (2007-02-03). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://arquivo.pt/wayback/20160515101534/http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=environment&storyID=2007-02-03T144510Z_01_L03357553_RTRIDST_0_DCBRIGHTS-GLOBALWARMING-APPEAL-DC.XML">"46 nations call for tougher U.N. environment role"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Reuters" title="Reuters">Reuters</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=environment&storyID=2007-02-03T144510Z_01_L03357553_RTRIDST_0_DCBRIGHTS-GLOBALWARMING-APPEAL-DC.XML">the original</a> on 2016-05-15.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=46+nations+call+for+tougher+U.N.+environment+role&rft.date=2007-02-03&rft.aulast=Doyle&rft.aufirst=Alister&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Ftoday.reuters.com%2Fnews%2Farticlenews.aspx%3Ftype%3Denvironment%26storyID%3D2007-02-03T144510Z_01_L03357553_RTRIDST_0_DCBRIGHTS-GLOBALWARMING-APPEAL-DC.XML&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-25"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-25">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">See on-line: <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/spm.html">Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160419000003/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/spm.html">Archived</a> April 19, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>. Or <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf">pdf</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161125034403/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf">Archived</a> November 25, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-USChinaWarningsTonedDown-26"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-USChinaWarningsTonedDown_26-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-USChinaWarningsTonedDown_26-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFEilperin2007" class="citation news cs1">Eilperin, Juliet (2007-04-07). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/06/AR2007040600291.html">"U.S., China Got Climate Warnings Toned Down"</a>. <i>The <a href="/wiki/Washington_Post" class="mw-redirect" title="Washington Post">Washington Post</a></i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20070411044149/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/06/AR2007040600291.html">Archived</a> from the original on 2007-04-11<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2007-04-09</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Washington+Post&rft.atitle=U.S.%2C+China+Got+Climate+Warnings+Toned+Down&rft.date=2007-04-07&rft.aulast=Eilperin&rft.aufirst=Juliet&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fwp-dyn%2Fcontent%2Farticle%2F2007%2F04%2F06%2FAR2007040600291.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-WG3SPM-27"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-WG3SPM_27-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">See on-line: <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Mitigation of Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> May 24, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-28"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-28">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20070415113532/http://www.ipcc.ch/calendar2007.htm">"IPCC meetings in 2007"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">IPCC</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/calendar2007.htm">the original</a> on 2007-04-15<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2007-05-01</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=IPCC+meetings+in+2007&rft.pub=IPCC&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Fcalendar2007.htm&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-29"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-29">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">IPCC, 2007: <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg3/">Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20181223030127/https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html">Archived</a> 2018-12-23 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a> [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-30"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-30">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6606465.stm">"Bangkok hosts key climate summit"</a>. <a href="/wiki/BBC" title="BBC">BBC</a>. 2007-04-30. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20070504171834/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6606465.stm">Archived</a> from the original on 2007-05-04<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2007-05-01</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Bangkok+hosts+key+climate+summit&rft.date=2007-04-30&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.bbc.co.uk%2F2%2Fhi%2Fscience%2Fnature%2F6606465.stm&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-31"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-31">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://edition.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/05/03/climate.report.ap/index.html?eref=rss_world">"Deal reached on climate change report"</a>. <a href="/wiki/CNN" title="CNN">CNN</a>. 2007-05-04<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2007-05-04</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Deal+reached+on+climate+change+report&rft.date=2007-05-04&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fedition.cnn.com%2F2007%2FTECH%2Fscience%2F05%2F03%2Fclimate.report.ap%2Findex.html%3Feref%3Drss_world&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span><sup class="noprint Inline-Template"><span style="white-space: nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Link_rot" title="Wikipedia:Link rot"><span title=" Dead link tagged May 2016">dead link</span></a></i><span style="visibility:hidden; color:transparent; padding-left:2px">‍</span>]</span></sup></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-32"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-32">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6620909.stm">"Climate change 'can be tackled'<span class="cs1-kern-right"></span>"</a>. <a href="/wiki/BBC" title="BBC">BBC</a>. 2007-05-04. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20070602180542/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6620909.stm">Archived</a> from the original on 2007-06-02<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2007-05-04</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Climate+change+%27can+be+tackled%27&rft.date=2007-05-04&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.bbc.co.uk%2F1%2Fhi%2Fsci%2Ftech%2F6620909.stm&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-principles-33"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-principles_33-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">IPCC. <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20070712111916/http://www.ipcc.ch/about/princ.pdf">"Principles Governing IPCC Work"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/about/princ.pdf">the original</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> on 2007-07-12.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Principles+Governing+IPCC+Work&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Fabout%2Fprinc.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span> <span style="font-size:85%;">(8.38 KB)</span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-34"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-34">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM (Summary for Policymakers)</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> 2016-05-24 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>, item 5, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">p. 11</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161125034350/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">Archived</a> November 25, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-35"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-35">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> 2016-05-24 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>, Box SPM 2, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">p. 10</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161125034350/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">Archived</a> November 25, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-36"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-36">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> May 24, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, Table SPM 3, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">p. 14</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161125034350/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">Archived</a> 2016-11-25 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-37"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-37">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> May 24, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, Table SPM4, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">p. 16</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161125034350/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">Archived</a> 2016-11-25 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-38"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-38">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> May 24, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, item 30, p. 17, and item 10, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">p. 18</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161125034350/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">Archived</a> 2016-11-25 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-39"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-39">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> May 24, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, items 15, 20, & 25, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">p. 18</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161125034350/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">Archived</a> 2016-11-25 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-40"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-40">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> May 24, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, items 25, 30, & 35, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">p. 18</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161125034350/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">Archived</a> 2016-11-25 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-41"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-41">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> May 24, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, item 11, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">p. 19</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161125034350/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">Archived</a> 2016-11-25 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-42"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-42">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> May 24, 2016, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, item 12, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">p. 19</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161125034350/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf">Archived</a> 2016-11-25 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-43"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-43">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> 2016-05-24 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, item 18, p. 22, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-44"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-44">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> 2016-05-24 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, Table SPM.5, p. 23, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-45"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-45">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> 2016-05-24 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, item 19, p. 25, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-46"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-46">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> 2016-05-24 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, item 25, p. 25, and item 5, p. 26, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-47"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-47">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> 2016-05-24 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, item 10, p. 32, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-48"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-48">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> 2016-05-24 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, item 10, p. 28, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-49"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-49">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">SPM</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160524223546/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spm.html">Archived</a> 2016-05-24 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, items 23 & 25, p. 29, in <a href="#CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG32007">IPCC AR4 WG3 2007</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-50"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-50">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf">"Summary for Policymakers"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110228135154/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf">Archived</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> from the original on 2011-02-28<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2007-11-17</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Summary+for+Policymakers&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Fpdf%2Fassessment-report%2Far4%2Fsyr%2Far4_syr_spm.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span> <span style="font-size:85%;">(1.92 MB)</span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-51"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-51">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/ar4outline.htm">AR4 Synthesis Report — Outline of Topics</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20071113135054/http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/ar4outline.htm">Archived</a> November 13, 2007, at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-52"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-52">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/">"IPCC home page"</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170915050210/http://www.ipcc.ch/">Archived</a> from the original on 2017-09-15<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2007-11-17</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=IPCC+home+page&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-53"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-53">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://unfccc.int/2860.php">"UNFCCC home page"</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180201152427/http://unfccc.int/2860.php">Archived</a> from the original on 2018-02-01<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2007-11-17</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=UNFCCC+home+page&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Funfccc.int%2F2860.php&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-ar4-54"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-ar4_54-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation book cs1">"Chapter 2". <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm"><i>AR4 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis</i></a>. p. 141.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Chapter+2&rft.btitle=AR4+Climate+Change+2007%3A+The+Physical+Science+Basis&rft.pages=141&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Fipccreports%2Far4-wg1.htm&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-rosenthal-55"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-rosenthal_55-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFRosenthalRevkin2007" class="citation news cs1">Rosenthal, Elisabeth; Revkin, Andrew C. (2007-02-03). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/03/science/earth/03climate.html?ex=1328158800&en=61f42312221df544&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss%3Cbr%20/%3E">"Science Panel Calls Global Warming 'Unequivocal'<span class="cs1-kern-right"></span>"</a>. <i>The New York Times</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2010-08-28</span></span>. <q>the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, 'very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950</q></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=Science+Panel+Calls+Global+Warming+%27Unequivocal%27&rft.date=2007-02-03&rft.aulast=Rosenthal&rft.aufirst=Elisabeth&rft.au=Revkin%2C+Andrew+C.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2007%2F02%2F03%2Fscience%2Fearth%2F03climate.html%3Fex%3D1328158800%26en%3D61f42312221df544%26ei%3D5090%26partner%3Drssuserland%26emc%3Drss%253Cbr%2520%2F%253E&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-On_the_Climate_Change_Beat,_Doubt_Gives_Way_to_Certainty-56"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-On_the_Climate_Change_Beat,_Doubt_Gives_Way_to_Certainty_56-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFStevens2007" class="citation news cs1">Stevens, William K. (2007-02-06). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/06/science/earth/06clim.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5088&en=53862c0cdf77d1c0&ex=1328418000&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss">"On the Climate Change Beat, Doubt Gives Way to Certainty"</a>. <i>The New York Times</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2010-08-28</span></span>. <q>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel's parlance, this level of certainty is labeled "very likely." Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression.</q></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=On+the+Climate+Change+Beat%2C+Doubt+Gives+Way+to+Certainty&rft.date=2007-02-06&rft.aulast=Stevens&rft.aufirst=William+K.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2007%2F02%2F06%2Fscience%2Fearth%2F06clim.html%3Fpagewanted%3D1%26ei%3D5088%26en%3D53862c0cdf77d1c0%26ex%3D1328418000%26partner%3Drssnyt%26emc%3Drss&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-foxnews-57"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-foxnews_57-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120630012604/http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,249659,00.html">"U.N. Report: Global Warming Man-Made, Basically Unstoppable"</a>. Fox News. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,249659,00.html">the original</a> on 2012-06-30<span class="reference-accessdate">. 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Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2010-02-28</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=New+York+Times&rft.atitle=Independent+Board+to+Review+Work+of+Top+Climate+Panel&rft.date=2010-02-27&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2010%2F02%2F27%2Fscience%2Fearth%2F27climate.html%3Fsrc%3Dtwt%26twt%3Dnytimesscience&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2007_science_academies_statement-59"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-2007_science_academies_statement_59-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> <a href="#CITEREFAcademia_Brasileira_de_Ciénciasothers2007">Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias & others 2007</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-60"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-60">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> <a href="#CITEREFAcademia_Brasileira_de_Ciénciasothers2008">Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias & others 2008</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-61"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-61">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> <a href="#CITEREFAcademia_Brasileira_de_Ciénciasothers2009">Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias & others 2009</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-62"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-62">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="#CITEREFLambeck2007">Lambeck 2007</a>, <a href="#CITEREFAustralian_Academy_of_Scienceno_date">Australian Academy of Science & no date</a>, <a href="#CITEREFAustralian_Academy_of_Science2010">Australian Academy of Science 2010</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-63"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-63">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> <a href="#CITEREFNASAC2007">NASAC 2007</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-64"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-64">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> <a href="#CITEREFIAMP2010">IAMP 2010</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-66"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-66">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> <a href="#CITEREFPBLothers2009">PBL & others 2009</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-67"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-67">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> <a href="#CITEREFPBL2010">PBL 2010</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-68"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-68">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> Summary, in <a href="#CITEREFPBLothers2009">PBL & others 2009</a>, p. 7</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-pbl_2010_ipcc_review-69"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-pbl_2010_ipcc_review_69-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-pbl_2010_ipcc_review_69-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"> Executive summary, in <a href="#CITEREFPBL2010">PBL 2010</a>, p. 9</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-us_nrc_2010_summary-70"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-us_nrc_2010_summary_70-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12782&page=3">Summary, p. 3</a>, in <a href="#CITEREFUS_NRC2010">US NRC 2010</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-71"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-71">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"> Section 3.2: Errors, in: Chapter 3: Results and discussion, in <a href="#CITEREFPBL2010">PBL 2010</a>, pp. 35–37</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-72"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-72">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBagla2010" class="citation journal cs1">Bagla, P. 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Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2015-12-27</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Martin+Parry&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlparry.com%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-guardian_2010-02-14-75"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-guardian_2010-02-14_75-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFDavid_Adam2010" class="citation news cs1">David Adam (2010-02-14). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/feb/14/climate-scientist-himalayan-glacier-report">"Climate scientist says Himalayan glacier report is 'robust and rigorous' | Environment"</a>. <i>The Guardian</i>. London. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100217041407/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/14/climate-scientist-himalayan-glacier-report">Archived</a> from the original on 2010-02-17<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2010-02-19</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Guardian&rft.atitle=Climate+scientist+says+Himalayan+glacier+report+is+%27robust+and+rigorous%27+%26%23124%3B+Environment&rft.date=2010-02-14&rft.au=David+Adam&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fenvironment%2F2010%2Ffeb%2F14%2Fclimate-scientist-himalayan-glacier-report&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-AR4_2k_years-76"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-AR4_2k_years_76-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="#CITEREFJansenOverpeck2007">Jansen & Overpeck 2007</a></span> </li> </ol></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Sources">Sources</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=38" title="Edit section: Sources"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The Fourth Assessment Report consists of the following reports from each of the three Working Groups, and a Synthesis Report. Additional reports and documents can be found at the IPCC's <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml">documents web page</a>. </p> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFSolomonQinManningChen2007" class="citation book cs1">Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; Tignor, M.; Miller, H.L., eds. (2007). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf"><i>IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.))</i></a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2014-07-07</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=IPCC%2C+2007%3A+Summary+for+Policymakers.+In%3A+Climate+Change+2007%3A+The+Physical+Science+Basis.+Contribution+of+Working+Group+I+to+the+Fourth+Assessment+Report+of+the+Intergovernmental+Panel+on+Climate+Change+%28Solomon%2C+S.%2C+D.+Qin%2C+M.+Manning%2C+Z.+Chen%2C+M.+Marquis%2C+K.B.+Averyt%2C+M.+Tignor+and+H.L.+Miller+%28eds.%29%29&rft.place=Cambridge&rft.pub=Cambridge+University+Press&rft.date=2007&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Fpdf%2Fassessment-report%2Far4%2Fwg1%2Far4-wg1-spm.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span> (Abbreviated as SPM-WG1, AR4)</li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFIPCC_AR4_WG12007" class="citation cs2"><a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">IPCC AR4 WG1</a> (2007), Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; Tignor, M.; Miller, H.L. 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Statement <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2008/climate-change-adaptation/">website.</a></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAcademia_Brasileira_de_Ciénciasothers2009" class="citation cs2">Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias; et al. (2009-05-01), <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/7871.pdf"><i>Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future. A joint-statement made by the science academies of the G8 nations and Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa (the G8+5)</i></a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>, London: Royal Society</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Climate+change+and+the+transformation+of+energy+technologies+for+a+low+carbon+future.+A+joint-statement+made+by+the+science+academies+of+the+G8+nations+and+Brazil%2C+China%2C+India%2C+Mexico+and+South+Africa+%28the+G8%2B5%29&rft.place=London&rft.pub=Royal+Society&rft.date=2009-05-01&rft.au=Academia+Brasileira+de+Ci%C3%A9ncias&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Froyalsociety.org%2FuploadedFiles%2FRoyal_Society_Content%2Fpolicy%2Fpublications%2F2009%2F7871.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span>. Statement <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2009/joint-academies-climate-change/">website.</a></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAustralian_Academy_of_Scienceno_date" class="citation cs2">Australian Academy of Science (n.d.), <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130921232458/http://science.org.au/policy/climatechange-g8+5.html"><i>Science Policy: Climate Change: The Australian Academy of Science's comments on the Joint science academies' statement: Climate change adaptation and the transition to a low carbon society</i></a>, Canberra: Australian Academy of Science, archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://science.org.au/policy/climatechange-g8+5.html">the original</a> on 21 September 2013<span class="reference-accessdate">, retrieved <span class="nowrap">10 September</span> 2013</span></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Science+Policy%3A+Climate+Change%3A+The+Australian+Academy+of+Science%27s+comments+on+the+Joint+science+academies%27+statement%3A+Climate+change+adaptation+and+the+transition+to+a+low+carbon+society&rft.place=Canberra&rft.pub=Australian+Academy+of+Science&rft.au=Australian+Academy+of+Science&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fscience.org.au%2Fpolicy%2Fclimatechange-g8%2B5.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAustralian_Academy_of_Science2010" class="citation cs2">Australian Academy of Science (August 2010), <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130812233954/http://science.org.au/policy/climatechange.html"><i>The Science of Climate Change: questions and answers</i></a>, Canberra: Australian Academy of Science, <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0858472860" title="Special:BookSources/978-0858472860"><bdi>978-0858472860</bdi></a>, archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.science.org.au/policy/climatechange.html">the original</a> on 12 August 2013</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=The+Science+of+Climate+Change%3A+questions+and+answers&rft.place=Canberra&rft.pub=Australian+Academy+of+Science&rft.date=2010-08&rft.isbn=978-0858472860&rft.au=Australian+Academy+of+Science&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.science.org.au%2Fpolicy%2Fclimatechange.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130918044151/http://www.science.org.au/reports/climatechange2010.pdf">Low-resolution (2 Mb)</a> or <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130531074009/http://www.science.org.au/reports/ClimateChange2010-highres.pdf">high-resolution</a> PDF (25 Mb).</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report&action=edit&section=39" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change home page</a></li> <li>Ten-webpage <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.greenfacts.org/en/climate-change-ar4/">summary of the Fourth Assessment Report SPMs</a> by <a href="/w/index.php?title=GreenFacts&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="GreenFacts (page does not exist)">GreenFacts</a>; the webpages as a self-contained <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.greenfacts.org/en/climate-change-ar4/climate-change-ar4-greenfacts-level2.pdf">"39-page document"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=39-page+document&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.greenfacts.org%2Fen%2Fclimate-change-ar4%2Fclimate-change-ar4-greenfacts-level2.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AIPCC+Fourth+Assessment+Report" class="Z3988"></span> <span style="font-size:85%;">(1.04 MB)</span></li> <li>Commentary on the Working Group I Report: <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/jan/27/usnews.frontpagenews">The Guardian</a> Article on US political pressure on WGI Report, 27 January 2007</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20070207124053/http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=499&ArticleID=5506&l=en">UNEP.org</a> Press release: <i>Evidence of Human-caused Global Warming "Unequivocal", says IPCC</i>, 2 February 2007</li> <li><a href="/wiki/RealClimate" title="RealClimate">RealClimate</a> blog — <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/02/the-ipcc-fourth-assessment-summary-for-policy-makers">Commentary</a> on Working Group I Summary for Policymakers, 2 February 2007</li></ul></li> <li>Videos: <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100621194329/http://uc.princeton.edu/main/index.php/component/content/article/3163">From Science to Assessment: Overview of the IPCC AR4 Working Group I Report</a>. A lecture given at <a href="/wiki/Princeton_University" title="Princeton University">Princeton University</a> by Ronald Stouffer, Senior Research Meteorologist, <a href="/wiki/Geophysical_Fluid_Dynamics_Laboratory" title="Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory">Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory</a> (GFDL), 11 March 2008</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100718171134/http://uc.princeton.edu/main/index.php/component/content/article/28-all-videos/3162-lessons-from-the-climate-wars-the-future-of-the-ipcc">Lessons from the Climate Wars: The Future of the IPCC</a>. A lecture given at Princeton University by <a href="/wiki/Gary_Yohe" title="Gary Yohe">Gary Yohe</a>, Woodhouse/Sysco Professor of economics at <a href="/wiki/Wesleyan_University" title="Wesleyan University">Wesleyan University</a> and Director of the John E. Andrus Public Affairs Center at Wesleyan, 7 May 2008</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100621185550/http://uc.princeton.edu/main/index.php/component/content/article/3161">Emissions Mitigation and Climate Stabilization</a>. A lecture given at Princeton University by Jae Edmonds, Chief Scientist, Joint Global Change Research Institute, <a href="/wiki/Pacific_Northwest_National_Laboratory" title="Pacific Northwest National Laboratory">Pacific Northwest National Laboratory</a>, 22 April 2008</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090722044146/http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/550">How Would Climate Change Influence Society in the 21st Century?</a> A lecture given at <a href="/wiki/MIT" class="mw-redirect" title="MIT">MIT</a> by <a href="/wiki/Rajendra_Pachauri" class="mw-redirect" title="Rajendra Pachauri">Rajendra Pachauri</a>, 29 January 2008</li></ul></li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236075235">.mw-parser-output .navbox{box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid 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change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Climate change adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Causes" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Overview</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_system" title="Climate system">Climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" title="Greenhouse effect">Greenhouse effect</a> (<a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere" title="Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere">Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change" title="Scientific consensus on climate change">Scientific consensus on climate change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Sources</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Deforestation_and_climate_change" title="Deforestation and climate change">Deforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel" title="Fossil fuel">Fossil fuel</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">Greenhouse gases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">Greenhouse gas emissions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_accounting" title="Carbon accounting">Carbon accounting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_footprint" title="Carbon footprint">Carbon footprint</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_leakage" title="Carbon leakage">Carbon leakage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_agriculture" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture">from agriculture</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_wetlands" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands">from wetlands</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consumption" title="World energy supply and consumption">World energy supply and consumption</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="History" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">History</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_policy_and_politics" title="History of climate change policy and politics">History of climate change policy and politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science" title="History of climate change science">History of climate change science</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius" title="Svante Arrhenius">Svante Arrhenius</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/James_Hansen" title="James Hansen">James Hansen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Charles_David_Keeling" title="Charles David Keeling">Charles David Keeling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Climate_Change_conference" class="mw-redirect" title="United Nations Climate Change conference">United Nations Climate Change conferences</a></li> <li>Years in climate change <ul><li><a href="/wiki/2019_in_climate_change" title="2019 in climate change">2019</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2020_in_climate_change" title="2020 in climate change">2020</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2021_in_climate_change" title="2021 in climate change">2021</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2022_in_climate_change" title="2022 in climate change">2022</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2023_in_climate_change" title="2023 in climate change">2023</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2024_in_climate_change" title="2024 in climate change">2024</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Effects_and_issues" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects and issues</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Physical</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Abrupt_climate_change" title="Abrupt climate change">Abrupt climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anoxic_event" title="Anoxic event">Anoxic event</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions" title="Arctic methane emissions">Arctic methane emissions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline" title="Arctic sea ice decline">Arctic sea ice decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation" title="Atlantic meridional overturning circulation">Atlantic meridional overturning circulation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Drought" title="Drought">Drought</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">Extreme weather</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood" title="Flood">Flood</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Coastal_flooding" title="Coastal flooding">Coastal flooding</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heat_wave" title="Heat wave">Heat wave</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Marine_heatwave" title="Marine heatwave">Marine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_heat_island" title="Urban heat island">Urban heat island</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_oceans" title="Effects of climate change on oceans">Oceans</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_acidification" title="Ocean acidification">acidification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_deoxygenation" title="Ocean deoxygenation">deoxygenation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_heat_content" title="Ocean heat content">heat content</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_stratification" title="Ocean stratification">stratification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_temperature" title="Ocean temperature">temperature</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">Ozone depletion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost#Impacts_of_climate_change" title="Permafrost">Permafrost thaw</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850" title="Retreat of glaciers since 1850">Retreat of glaciers since 1850</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">Sea level rise</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Season_creep" title="Season creep">Season creep</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system" title="Tipping points in the climate system">Tipping points in the climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_and_climate_change" title="Tropical cyclones and climate change">Tropical cyclones</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_the_water_cycle" title="Effects of climate change on the water cycle">Water cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_wildfires" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and wildfires">Wildfires</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Flora and fauna</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_biomes" title="Effects of climate change on biomes">Biomes</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mass_mortality_event" title="Mass mortality event">Mass mortality event</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_birds" title="Climate change and birds">Birds</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extinction_risk_from_climate_change" title="Extinction risk from climate change">Extinction risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forest_dieback" title="Forest dieback">Forest dieback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_invasive_species" title="Climate change and invasive species">Invasive species</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_marine_life#Climate_change" title="Human impact on marine life">Marine life</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_plant_biodiversity" title="Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity">Plant biodiversity</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Social and economic</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_agriculture" title="Effects of climate change on agriculture">Agriculture</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_livestock" title="Effects of climate change on livestock">Livestock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and agriculture in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_children" title="Climate change and children">Children</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_cities" title="Climate change and cities">Cities</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse" title="Climate change and civilizational collapse">Civilizational collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_crime" title="Climate change and crime">Crime</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_areas_depopulated_due_to_climate_change" title="List of areas depopulated due to climate change">Depopulation of settlements</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_landmarks_destroyed_or_damaged_by_climate_change" title="List of landmarks destroyed or damaged by climate change">Destruction of cultural heritage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disability_and_climate_change" title="Disability and climate change">Disability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economic impacts</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_insurance_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and insurance in the United States">U.S. insurance industry</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_fisheries" title="Climate change and fisheries">Fisheries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_gender" title="Climate change and gender">Gender</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_human_health" title="Effects of climate change on human health">Health</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_mental_health" title="Effects of climate change on mental health">Mental health</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_rights_and_climate_change" title="Human rights and climate change">Human rights</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_Indigenous_peoples" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and Indigenous peoples">Indigenous peoples</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_infectious_diseases" title="Climate change and infectious diseases">Infectious diseases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_migration" title="Climate migration">Migration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_poverty" title="Climate change and poverty">Poverty</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Psychological_impact_of_climate_change" title="Psychological impact of climate change">Psychological impacts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_security" title="Climate security">Security and conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_flooding" title="Urban flooding">Urban flooding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_scarcity" title="Water scarcity">Water scarcity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_security" title="Water security">Water security</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Africa" title="Climate change in Africa">Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Americas" title="Climate change in the Americas">Americas</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Antarctica" title="Climate change in Antarctica">Antarctica</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic" title="Climate change in the Arctic">Arctic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Asia" title="Climate change in Asia">Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Australia" title="Climate change in Australia">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Caribbean" title="Climate change in the Caribbean">Caribbean</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Europe" title="Climate change in Europe">Europe</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa" title="Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa">Middle East and North Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_small_island_countries" title="Effects of climate change on small island countries">Small island countries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Category:Climate_change_by_country" title="Category:Climate change by country">by individual country</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Mitigation" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Mitigation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economics and finance</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_budget" title="Carbon budget">Carbon budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_emission_trading" title="Carbon emission trading">Carbon emission trading</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_offsets_and_credits" title="Carbon offsets and credits">Carbon offsets and credits</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gold_Standard_(carbon_offset_standard)" title="Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)">Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_price" title="Carbon price">Carbon price</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_tax" title="Carbon tax">Carbon tax</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_debt" title="Climate debt">Climate debt</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_finance" title="Climate finance">Climate finance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk_insurance" title="Climate risk insurance">Climate risk insurance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Co-benefits_of_climate_change_mitigation" class="mw-redirect" title="Co-benefits of climate change mitigation">Co-benefits of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economics_of_climate_change_mitigation" title="Economics of climate change mitigation">Economics of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_divestment" title="Fossil fuel divestment">Fossil fuel divestment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Green_Climate_Fund" title="Green Climate Fund">Green Climate Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Low-carbon_economy" title="Low-carbon economy">Low-carbon economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_zero_emissions" class="mw-redirect" title="Net zero emissions">Net zero emissions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Energy</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage" title="Carbon capture and storage">Carbon capture and storage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_transition" title="Energy transition">Energy transition</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out" title="Fossil fuel phase-out">Fossil fuel phase-out</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_power" title="Nuclear power">Nuclear power</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Renewable_energy" title="Renewable energy">Renewable energy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_energy" title="Sustainable energy">Sustainable energy</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Preserving and enhancing<br /> <a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">carbon sinks</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Blue_carbon" title="Blue carbon">Blue carbon</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal" title="Carbon dioxide removal">Carbon dioxide removal</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" title="Carbon sequestration">Carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Direct_air_capture" title="Direct air capture">Direct air capture</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_farming" title="Carbon farming">Carbon farming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate-smart_agriculture" title="Climate-smart agriculture">Climate-smart agriculture</a></li> <li>Forest management <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Afforestation" title="Afforestation">afforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration#Forestry" title="Carbon sequestration">forestry for carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/REDD_and_REDD%2B" title="REDD and REDD+">REDD and REDD+</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reforestation" title="Reforestation">reforestation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_use,_land-use_change,_and_forestry" title="Land use, land-use change, and forestry">Land use, land-use change, and forestry</a> (LULUCF and AFOLU)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Personal</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Individual_action_on_climate_change" title="Individual action on climate change">Individual action on climate change</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Plant-based_diet" title="Plant-based diet">Plant-based diet</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Society_and_adaptation" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Society and <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">adaptation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Society</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Business_action_on_climate_change" title="Business action on climate change">Business action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_action" title="Climate action">Climate action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_emergency_declaration" title="Climate emergency declaration">Climate emergency declaration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_movement" title="Climate movement">Climate movement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/School_Strike_for_Climate" class="mw-redirect" title="School Strike for Climate">School Strike for Climate</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_denial" title="Climate change denial">Denial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_grief" title="Ecological grief">Ecological grief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_governance" title="Climate governance">Governance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_justice" title="Climate justice">Justice</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_litigation" title="Climate change litigation">Litigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Politics_of_climate_change" title="Politics of climate change">Politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Public_opinion_on_climate_change" title="Public opinion on climate change">Public opinion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Women_in_climate_change" title="Women in climate change">Women</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Adaptation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation_strategies_on_the_German_coast" title="Climate change adaptation strategies on the German coast">Adaptation strategies on the German coast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_capacity" title="Adaptive capacity">Adaptive capacity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disaster_risk_reduction" title="Disaster risk reduction">Disaster risk reduction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecosystem-based_adaptation" title="Ecosystem-based adaptation">Ecosystem-based adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood_control" class="mw-redirect" title="Flood control">Flood control</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Loss_and_damage_(climate_change)" title="Loss and damage (climate change)">Loss and damage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Managed_retreat" title="Managed retreat">Managed retreat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_resilience" title="Climate resilience">Resilience</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk" title="Climate risk">Risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_vulnerability" title="Climate change vulnerability">Vulnerability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/The_Adaptation_Fund" title="The Adaptation Fund">The Adaptation Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_Adaptation_Programme_of_Action" title="National Adaptation Programme of Action">National Adaptation Programme of Action</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_communication" title="Climate communication">Communication</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_Change_Performance_Index" title="Climate Change Performance Index">Climate Change Performance Index</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_crisis" title="Climate crisis">Climate crisis (term)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_spiral" title="Climate spiral">Climate spiral</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_education" title="Climate change education">Education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_climate_change" title="Media coverage of climate change">Media coverage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_popular_culture" title="Climate change in popular culture">Popular culture depictions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_art" title="Climate change art">art</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_fiction" title="Climate fiction">fiction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_climate_change_video_games" class="mw-redirect" title="List of climate change video games">video games</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Warming_stripes" title="Warming stripes">Warming stripes</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">International agreements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Glasgow_Climate_Pact" title="Glasgow Climate Pact">Glasgow Climate Pact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol" title="Kyoto Protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cooperative_Mechanisms_under_Article_6_of_the_Paris_Agreement" title="Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement">Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nationally_determined_contribution" title="Nationally determined contribution">Nationally determined contributions</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goal_13" title="Sustainable Development Goal 13">Sustainable Development Goal 13</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Background_and_theory" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Background and theory</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Measurements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Global_surface_temperature" title="Global surface temperature">Global surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">Instrumental temperature record</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)" title="Proxy (climate)">Proxy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurement" title="Satellite temperature measurement">Satellite temperature measurement</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Theory</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">Albedo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">Carbon cycle</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Atmospheric_carbon_cycle" title="Atmospheric carbon cycle">atmospheric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biological_pump" title="Biological pump">biologic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Oceanic_carbon_cycle" title="Oceanic carbon cycle">oceanic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost_carbon_cycle" title="Permafrost carbon cycle">permafrost</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">Carbon sink</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">Climate variability and change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_feedback" title="Cloud feedback">Cloud feedback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_forcing" class="mw-redirect" title="Cloud forcing">Cloud forcing</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fixed_anvil_temperature_hypothesis" title="Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis">Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cryosphere" title="Cryosphere">Cryosphere</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget" title="Earth's energy budget">Earth's energy budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_event_attribution" title="Extreme event attribution">Extreme event attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedbacks" title="Climate change feedbacks">Feedbacks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_warming_potential" title="Global warming potential">Global warming potential</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illustrative_model_of_greenhouse_effect_on_climate_change" title="Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change">Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Orbital_forcing" title="Orbital forcing">Orbital forcing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">Radiative forcing</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Research and modelling</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_scenario" title="Climate change scenario">Climate change scenario</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">Climate model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project" title="Coupled Model Intercomparison Project">Coupled Model Intercomparison Project</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paleoclimatology" title="Paleoclimatology">Paleoclimatology</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway" title="Representative Concentration Pathway">Representative Concentration Pathway</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">Shared Socioeconomic Pathways</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><b><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="icon" 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