瑞达期货：沪铜轻仓震荡交易-我的钢铁网

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class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="838" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p>隔夜沪<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>主力合约震荡走势，持仓量增加，现货贴水，基差走强。</p> <p>国际方面，美国2月零售销售月率录得0.2%，低于预期的增长0.6%，前值从-0.9下修为-1.2%。经合组织下调全球增长展望，将美国2025年增长预测从2.4%下调至2.2%，将2026年预测从2.1%下调至1.6%。国内方面，1-2月国民经济“成绩单”出炉：社会消费品零售总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%；规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.9%；全国城镇调查失业率平均值为5.3%。</p> <p>基本面上，<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tongjingkuang/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜精矿</a>加工费继续下行，加之港口库存快速回落，冶炼厂需求提升令铜精矿供给逐渐趋紧。供给端，国内有部分冶炼厂因铜精矿紧缺问题而出现检修计划，加之海外<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>高企令进口窗口收敛，国内供给量上或小幅收紧的迹象。需求端，上游以及贸易商挺价惜售情绪较强，市场现货流通偏紧，推升铜价令下游加工企业态度逐渐谨慎，整体来看下游订单有一定回暖但消费情况受制于高铜价家里。库存方面，精铜社会库存仅小幅去化，目前暂处高位。</p> <p>综上所述，沪铜基本面或处于供给小幅收敛，需求回暖情况有所降温的局面。期权方面，平值期权持仓购沽比为0.91，环比+0.0272，期权市场情绪偏多，隐含波动率略升。</p> <p>操作建议，轻仓震荡交易，注意控制节奏及交易风险。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block 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