Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en" class="grade-c"> <head> <title>Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C | Nature Climate Change</title> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate.rss"/> <script id="save-data-connection-testing"> function hasConnection() { return navigator.connection || navigator.mozConnection || navigator.webkitConnection || navigator.msConnection; } function createLink(src) { var preloadLink = document.createElement("link"); preloadLink.rel = "preload"; preloadLink.href = src; preloadLink.as = "font"; preloadLink.type = "font/woff2"; preloadLink.crossOrigin = ""; document.head.insertBefore(preloadLink, document.head.firstChild); } var connectionDetail = { saveDataEnabled: false, slowConnection: false }; var connection = hasConnection(); if (connection) { connectionDetail.saveDataEnabled = connection.saveData; if (/\slow-2g|2g/.test(connection.effectiveType)) { connectionDetail.slowConnection = true; } } if (!(connectionDetail.saveDataEnabled || connectionDetail.slowConnection)) { createLink("/static/fonts/HardingText-Regular-Web-cecd90984f.woff2"); } else { document.documentElement.classList.add('save-data'); } </script> <link rel="preconnect" href="https://cmp.nature.com" crossorigin> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"> <meta name="applicable-device" content="pc,mobile"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=5,user-scalable=yes"> <meta name="360-site-verification" content="5a2dc4ab3fcb9b0393241ffbbb490480" /> <script data-test="dataLayer"> window.dataLayer = [{"content":{"category":{"contentType":"article","legacy":{"webtrendsPrimaryArticleType":"research","webtrendsSubjectTerms":"climate-change-mitigation;energy-and-society;energy-modelling;socioeconomic-scenarios","webtrendsContentCategory":null,"webtrendsContentCollection":"Targeting 1.5 °C","webtrendsContentGroup":"Nature Climate Change","webtrendsContentGroupType":null,"webtrendsContentSubGroup":"Article","status":null}},"article":{"doi":"10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3"},"attributes":{"cms":null,"deliveryPlatform":"oscar","copyright":{"open":false,"legacy":{"webtrendsLicenceType":null}}},"contentInfo":{"authors":["Joeri Rogelj","Alexander Popp","Katherine V. 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The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios. Scenarios that constrain end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m–2, and thus global mean temperature increases to below 1.5 °C, are explored. 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data-test="authors-list" data-component-authors-activator="authors-list"><li class="c-article-author-list__item"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Joeri-Rogelj-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-popup="auth-Joeri-Rogelj-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-search="Rogelj, Joeri" data-corresp-id="c1">Joeri Rogelj<svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-mail-medium"></use></svg></a><span class="u-js-hide"> <a class="js-orcid" href="http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061"><span class="u-visually-hidden">ORCID: </span>orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061</a></span><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff1">1</a>,<a href="#Aff2">2</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Alexander-Popp-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-Alexander-Popp-Aff3" data-author-search="Popp, Alexander">Alexander Popp</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff3">3</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Katherine_V_-Calvin-Aff4" data-author-popup="auth-Katherine_V_-Calvin-Aff4" data-author-search="Calvin, Katherine V.">Katherine V. Calvin</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff4">4</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Gunnar-Luderer-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-Gunnar-Luderer-Aff3" data-author-search="Luderer, Gunnar">Gunnar Luderer</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff3">3</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Johannes-Emmerling-Aff5-Aff6" data-author-popup="auth-Johannes-Emmerling-Aff5-Aff6" data-author-search="Emmerling, Johannes">Johannes Emmerling</a><span class="u-js-hide"> <a class="js-orcid" href="http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0916-9913"><span class="u-visually-hidden">ORCID: </span>orcid.org/0000-0003-0916-9913</a></span><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff5">5</a>,<a href="#Aff6">6</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-David-Gernaat-Aff7-Aff8" data-author-popup="auth-David-Gernaat-Aff7-Aff8" data-author-search="Gernaat, David">David Gernaat</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff7">7</a>,<a href="#Aff8">8</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Shinichiro-Fujimori-Aff1-Aff9" data-author-popup="auth-Shinichiro-Fujimori-Aff1-Aff9" data-author-search="Fujimori, Shinichiro">Shinichiro Fujimori</a><span class="u-js-hide"> <a class="js-orcid" href="http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796"><span class="u-visually-hidden">ORCID: </span>orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796</a></span><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff1">1</a>,<a href="#Aff9">9</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Jessica-Strefler-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-Jessica-Strefler-Aff3" data-author-search="Strefler, Jessica">Jessica Strefler</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff3">3</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Tomoko-Hasegawa-Aff1-Aff9" data-author-popup="auth-Tomoko-Hasegawa-Aff1-Aff9" data-author-search="Hasegawa, Tomoko">Tomoko Hasegawa</a><span class="u-js-hide"> <a class="js-orcid" href="http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2456-5789"><span class="u-visually-hidden">ORCID: </span>orcid.org/0000-0003-2456-5789</a></span><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff1">1</a>,<a href="#Aff9">9</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Giacomo-Marangoni-Aff5-Aff6" data-author-popup="auth-Giacomo-Marangoni-Aff5-Aff6" data-author-search="Marangoni, Giacomo">Giacomo Marangoni</a><span class="u-js-hide"> <a class="js-orcid" href="http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3994-380X"><span class="u-visually-hidden">ORCID: </span>orcid.org/0000-0003-3994-380X</a></span><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff5">5</a>,<a href="#Aff6">6</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Volker-Krey-Aff1" data-author-popup="auth-Volker-Krey-Aff1" data-author-search="Krey, Volker">Volker Krey</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff1">1</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Elmar-Kriegler-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-Elmar-Kriegler-Aff3" data-author-search="Kriegler, Elmar">Elmar Kriegler</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff3">3</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Keywan-Riahi-Aff1" data-author-popup="auth-Keywan-Riahi-Aff1" data-author-search="Riahi, Keywan">Keywan Riahi</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff1">1</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Detlef_P_-van_Vuuren-Aff7-Aff8" data-author-popup="auth-Detlef_P_-van_Vuuren-Aff7-Aff8" data-author-search="van Vuuren, Detlef P.">Detlef P. van Vuuren</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff7">7</a>,<a href="#Aff8">8</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Jonathan-Doelman-Aff7" data-author-popup="auth-Jonathan-Doelman-Aff7" data-author-search="Doelman, Jonathan">Jonathan Doelman</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff7">7</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Laurent-Drouet-Aff5-Aff6" data-author-popup="auth-Laurent-Drouet-Aff5-Aff6" data-author-search="Drouet, Laurent">Laurent Drouet</a><span class="u-js-hide"> <a class="js-orcid" href="http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4087-7662"><span class="u-visually-hidden">ORCID: </span>orcid.org/0000-0002-4087-7662</a></span><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff5">5</a>,<a href="#Aff6">6</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Jae-Edmonds-Aff4" data-author-popup="auth-Jae-Edmonds-Aff4" data-author-search="Edmonds, Jae">Jae Edmonds</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff4">4</a></sup>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" href="#auth-Oliver-Fricko-Aff1" data-author-popup="auth-Oliver-Fricko-Aff1" data-author-search="Fricko, Oliver">Oliver Fricko</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff1">1</a></sup>, </li><li 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Massimo">Massimo Tavoni</a><sup class="u-js-hide"><a href="#Aff5">5</a>,<a href="#Aff6">6</a>,<a href="#Aff10">10</a></sup> </li></ul><button aria-expanded="false" class="c-article-author-list__button"><svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-chevron-down-medium"></use></svg><span>Show authors</span></button> <p class="c-article-info-details" data-container-section="info"> <a data-test="journal-link" href="/nclimate" data-track="click" data-track-action="journal homepage" data-track-category="article body" data-track-label="link"><i data-test="journal-title">Nature Climate Change</i></a> <b data-test="journal-volume"><span class="u-visually-hidden">volume</span> 8</b>, <span class="u-visually-hidden">pages </span>325–332 (<span data-test="article-publication-year">2018</span>)<a href="#citeas" class="c-article-info-details__cite-as u-hide-print" data-track="click" 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class="c-article-subject-list"> <li class="c-article-subject-list__subject"><a href="/subjects/climate-change-mitigation" data-track="click" data-track-action="view subject" data-track-label="link">Climate-change mitigation</a></li><li class="c-article-subject-list__subject"><a href="/subjects/energy-and-society" data-track="click" data-track-action="view subject" data-track-label="link">Energy and society</a></li><li class="c-article-subject-list__subject"><a href="/subjects/energy-modelling" data-track="click" data-track-action="view subject" data-track-label="link">Energy modelling</a></li><li class="c-article-subject-list__subject"><a href="/subjects/socioeconomic-scenarios" data-track="click" data-track-action="view subject" data-track-label="link">Socioeconomic scenarios</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="c-article-body"> <section aria-labelledby="Abs1" data-title="Abstract" lang="en"><div class="c-article-section" id="Abs1-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Abs1">Abstract</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Abs1-content"><p>The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m<sup>−2</sup>, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m<sup>−2</sup> scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m<sup>−2</sup> scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. 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class="c-article-section__figure-caption" data-test="figure-caption-text">Fig. 1: Emission and temperature characteristics of 1.9 W m<sup>−2</sup> scenarios under various SSPs.</b></figcaption><div class="c-article-section__figure-content"><div class="c-article-section__figure-item"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0091-3/MediaObjects/41558_2018_91_Fig1_HTML.jpg?as=webp"><img src="//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0091-3/MediaObjects/41558_2018_91_Fig1_HTML.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" width="312" height="293"></picture></div></div></figure></div><div class="c-article-section__figure js-c-reading-companion-figures-item" data-test="figure" data-container-section="figure" id="figure-2"><figure><figcaption><b id="Fig2" class="c-article-section__figure-caption" data-test="figure-caption-text">Fig. 2: Overview of key decarbonization characteristics in 1.9 W m<sup>−2</sup> scenarios.</b></figcaption><div class="c-article-section__figure-content"><div class="c-article-section__figure-item"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0091-3/MediaObjects/41558_2018_91_Fig2_HTML.jpg?as=webp"><img src="//media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0091-3/MediaObjects/41558_2018_91_Fig2_HTML.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" width="312" height="182"></picture></div></div></figure></div><div class="c-article-section__figure js-c-reading-companion-figures-item" data-test="figure" data-container-section="figure" id="figure-3"><figure><figcaption><b id="Fig3" class="c-article-section__figure-caption" data-test="figure-caption-text">Fig. 3: BECCS, fossil–CCS and CCS across SSPs and across climate targets.</b></figcaption><div class="c-article-section__figure-content"><div class="c-article-section__figure-item"><picture><source type="image/webp" 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Press, 2014).</p></li></ol><p class="c-article-references__download u-hide-print"><a data-track="click" data-track-action="download citation references" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow" href="https://citation-needed.springer.com/v2/references/10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3?format=refman&flavour=references">Download references<svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-download-medium"></use></svg></a></p></div></div></div></section></div><section data-title="Acknowledgements"><div class="c-article-section" id="Ack1-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Ack1">Acknowledgements</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Ack1-content"><p>We thank the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for hosting and maintaining the SSP Scenario Database of the Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium (IAMC), and thank P. Kolp for his reliable support with the administration of and access to scenario data, and administration of the database infrastructure. J.R., O.F., V.K., K.R., G.L., E.K. and A.P. have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement no. 642147 (CD-LINKS), no. 641816 (CRESCENDO) and the Framework Programme 7 under grant agreement no. 308329 (ADVANCE). J.S. has received funding from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) in the SPP ED 178/3-1 (CEMICS). S.F. and T.H. are supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP16K18177, and the Global Environmental Research Fund 2–1702 of the Ministry of Environment of Japan. J.R. acknowledges the support of the Oxford Martin Visiting Fellowship Programme. </p></div></div></section><section aria-labelledby="author-information" data-title="Author information"><div class="c-article-section" id="author-information-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="author-information">Author information</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="author-information-content"><h3 class="c-article__sub-heading" id="affiliations">Authors and Affiliations</h3><ol class="c-article-author-affiliation__list"><li id="Aff1"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">Joeri Rogelj, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Oliver Fricko & Petr Havlík</p></li><li id="Aff2"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">Joeri Rogelj</p></li><li id="Aff3"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">Alexander Popp, Gunnar Luderer, Jessica Strefler, Elmar Kriegler & Florian Humpenöder</p></li><li id="Aff4"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">Katherine V. Calvin & Jae Edmonds</p></li><li id="Aff5"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">Johannes Emmerling, Giacomo Marangoni, Laurent Drouet & Massimo Tavoni</p></li><li id="Aff6"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">Johannes Emmerling, Giacomo Marangoni, Laurent Drouet & Massimo Tavoni</p></li><li id="Aff7"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">David Gernaat, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jonathan Doelman, Mathijs Harmsen & Elke Stehfest</p></li><li id="Aff8"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">David Gernaat, Detlef P. van Vuuren & Mathijs Harmsen</p></li><li id="Aff9"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa</p></li><li id="Aff10"><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__address">Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy</p><p class="c-article-author-affiliation__authors-list">Massimo Tavoni</p></li></ol><div class="u-js-hide u-hide-print" data-test="author-info"><span class="c-article__sub-heading">Authors</span><ol class="c-article-authors-search u-list-reset"><li id="auth-Joeri-Rogelj-Aff1-Aff2"><span class="c-article-authors-search__title u-h3 js-search-name">Joeri Rogelj</span><div class="c-article-authors-search__list"><div class="c-article-authors-search__item c-article-authors-search__list-item--left"><a href="/search?author=Joeri%20Rogelj" class="c-article-button" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - publication" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">View author publications</a></div><div class="c-article-authors-search__item c-article-authors-search__list-item--right"><p class="search-in-title-js c-article-authors-search__text">You can also search for this author in <span class="c-article-identifiers"><a class="c-article-identifiers__item" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=search&term=Joeri%20Rogelj" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - pubmed" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">PubMed</a><span class="u-hide"> </span><a class="c-article-identifiers__item" href="http://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?as_q=&num=10&btnG=Search+Scholar&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_occt=any&as_sauthors=%22Joeri%20Rogelj%22&as_publication=&as_ylo=&as_yhi=&as_allsubj=all&hl=en" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - scholar" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">Google Scholar</a></span></p></div></div></li><li id="auth-Alexander-Popp-Aff3"><span class="c-article-authors-search__title u-h3 js-search-name">Alexander Popp</span><div class="c-article-authors-search__list"><div class="c-article-authors-search__item c-article-authors-search__list-item--left"><a href="/search?author=Alexander%20Popp" class="c-article-button" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - publication" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">View author publications</a></div><div class="c-article-authors-search__item c-article-authors-search__list-item--right"><p class="search-in-title-js c-article-authors-search__text">You can also search for this author in <span class="c-article-identifiers"><a class="c-article-identifiers__item" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=search&term=Alexander%20Popp" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - pubmed" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">PubMed</a><span class="u-hide"> </span><a class="c-article-identifiers__item" href="http://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?as_q=&num=10&btnG=Search+Scholar&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_occt=any&as_sauthors=%22Alexander%20Popp%22&as_publication=&as_ylo=&as_yhi=&as_allsubj=all&hl=en" data-track="click" data-track-action="author link - scholar" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow">Google Scholar</a></span></p></div></div></li><li id="auth-Katherine_V_-Calvin-Aff4"><span class="c-article-authors-search__title u-h3 js-search-name">Katherine V. 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(AIM/CGE), K.V.C., J.Ed. (GCAM), D.G., E.S., J.D., M.H., D.P.v.V. (IMAGE), O.F., P.H., V.K., J.R., K.R. (MESSAGE-GLOBIOM), J.S., F.H., A.P., G.L., E.K. (REMIND-MAgPIE) and J.Em., G.M., L.D. and M.T. (WITCH-GLOBIOM); all authors provided feedback and contributed to writing the paper.</p><h3 class="c-article__sub-heading" id="corresponding-author">Corresponding author</h3><p id="corresponding-author-list">Correspondence to <a id="corresp-c1" href="mailto:rogelj@iiasa.ac.at">Joeri Rogelj</a>.</p></div></div></section><section data-title="Ethics declarations"><div class="c-article-section" id="ethics-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="ethics">Ethics declarations</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="ethics-content"> <h3 class="c-article__sub-heading" id="FPar1">Competing interests</h3> <p>The authors declare no competing interests.</p> </div></div></section><section data-title="Additional information"><div class="c-article-section" id="additional-information-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="additional-information">Additional information</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="additional-information-content"><p><b>Publisher’s note:</b> Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.</p></div></div></section><section data-title="Supplementary information"><div class="c-article-section" id="Sec15-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Sec15">Supplementary information</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Sec15-content"><div data-test="supplementary-info"><div id="figshareContainer" class="c-article-figshare-container" data-test="figshare-container"></div><div class="c-article-supplementary__item" data-test="supp-item" id="MOESM1"><h3 class="c-article-supplementary__title u-h3"><a class="print-link" data-track="click" data-track-action="view supplementary info" data-test="supp-info-link" data-track-label="supplementary information" href="https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0091-3/MediaObjects/41558_2018_91_MOESM1_ESM.pdf" data-supp-info-image="">Supplementary Information</a></h3><div class="c-article-supplementary__description" data-component="thumbnail-container"><p>Supplementary Text 1–6, Supplementary Figures 1–26, Supplementary Tables 1–7 and Supplementary References</p></div></div></div></div></div></section><section data-title="Rights and permissions"><div class="c-article-section" id="rightslink-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="rightslink">Rights and permissions</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="rightslink-content"><p class="c-article-rights"><a data-track="click" data-track-action="view rights and permissions" data-track-label="link" href="https://s100.copyright.com/AppDispatchServlet?title=Scenarios%20towards%20limiting%20global%20mean%20temperature%20increase%20below%201.5%20%C2%B0C&author=Joeri%20Rogelj%20et%20al&contentID=10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0091-3&copyright=The%20Author%28s%29&publication=1758-678X&publicationDate=2018-03-05&publisherName=SpringerNature&orderBeanReset=true">Reprints and permissions</a></p></div></div></section><section aria-labelledby="article-info" data-title="About this article"><div class="c-article-section" id="article-info-section"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="article-info">About this article</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="article-info-content"><div class="c-bibliographic-information"><div class="u-hide-print c-bibliographic-information__column c-bibliographic-information__column--border"><a data-crossmark="10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3" data-track="click" data-track-action="Click Crossmark" data-track-label="link" data-test="crossmark"><img loading="lazy" width="57" height="81" alt="Check for updates. 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