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data-testid="article-wrapper" class="ArticleWrapper__Wrapper-sc-bbdc12b4-0 fUdway"><article class="yle__article arkki-theme-default" data-vrsproduct="svenska"><header class="yle__article__header"><div class="sc-ewMzwg taepJ"><a href="https://yle.fi/t/18-34953/sv" aria-label="Fler artiklar om ämnet Utrikes" class="ydscr__sc-w5hh4y-0 bmUGWu sc-gjXmFk eZuwUz">Utrikes</a><a href="https://yle.fi/t/18-213332/sv" aria-label="Fler artiklar om ämnet Internationell politik" class="ydscr__sc-w5hh4y-0 ftZGBr sc-gjXmFk eZuwUz">Internationell politik</a></div><h1 class="sc-hUAZgl asJKO yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--1">Vad händer om allt fler skaffar sig kärnvapen?</h1><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-dslWvo hUYdmX cpEiOg yle__article__paragraph">USA:s opålitlighet gör kärnvapen attraktiva för allierade.</p><figure class="sc-jcvEFQ gaAVHD yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"7-10074968","@context":"https://schema.org","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","description":"När USA:s kärnvapenparaply ter sig allt mera osäkert funderar flera mindre länder på alternativ, som exempelvis Sydkorea som bor granne med en fientlig makt med egna kärnvapen.","copyrightHolder":"EPA","url":"https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.4994179278230502,c_fill,g_faces,h_511,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-1016301633b961ea200c","keywords":"Nordkorea,ballistisk robot,missiltester,Intermediate-range ballistic missile"}}</script><div class="sc-jIiDBi sc-lncAYT krYthw ezwuEP"><div class="sc-gtlvkJ ddgSYf"><div class="sc-jHswkR cEPfYZ"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.4994179278230502,c_fill,g_faces,h_511,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1664879423/39-1016301633b961ea200c 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.4994179278230502,c_fill,g_faces,h_511,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1664879423/39-1016301633b961ea200c 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.4994179278230502,c_fill,g_faces,h_424,w_636/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1664879423/39-1016301633b961ea200c 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.4994179278230502,c_fill,g_faces,h_424,w_636/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1664879423/39-1016301633b961ea200c 1x"/><img alt="Sydkoreaner tittade på nyheter om Nordkoreas senaste robottest på järnvägsstationen i Seoul. " src="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_2898,w_5152,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1664879423/39-1016301633b961ea200c" class="sc-cSaEAk cdhOGu"/></picture></div><div class="sc-beKSRx hHCGQd"><button aria-disabled="false" class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-0 ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-2 hkXxLi eEigQy"><span class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-7 evfPYu yds-button__content">Öppna bildvisare</span></button></div></div></div><figcaption class="sc-fCSSOr kGprtX"><span>När USA:s kärnvapenparaply ter sig allt mera osäkert funderar flera mindre länder på alternativ, som exempelvis Sydkorea som bor granne med en fientlig makt med egna kärnvapen.</span><span> Bild: EPA</span></figcaption></figure><div class="sc-lertIE kTspkI"><ul aria-label="Gjord av" class="sc-cYoYeT kAbMlH"><li class="sc-lkbiLU fbQXTy"><a href="https://svenska.yle.fi/u/56-7-285" class="sc-dOUtaJ cKeQwY">Thomas Silén</a></li></ul></div><div class="sc-bCCZMN ijFeZj"><div class="sc-ggPeai lantjH yle__article__date"><time class="sc-dmFEqP eNQWpc yle__article__date--published" dateTime="2025-03-29T06:29:01+02:00">29.3 6:29</time></div></div><div class="sc-kXkCoi dDYHXD"><button data-testid="default-article-audio-placeholder" class="sc-HzvkS Okeff"><span aria-disabled="false" class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-0 ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-1 exIoZf huiFxY"><span class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-4 ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-6 fVOhsW kTNNhq yds-button__icon"><svg width="24" height="24" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path fill="currentColor" fill-rule="evenodd" d="M5.52 2.122a1 1 0 0 1 1.02.037l14 9a1 1 0 0 1 0 1.682l-14 9A1 1 0 0 1 5 21V3a1 1 0 0 1 .52-.878" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg></span></span><span class="sc-iPzZWv koWch">Lyssna (du hör en artificiell röst) 8:39</span></button><div aria-hidden="true" class="sc-dRRvfZ fcPqiN"><div data-testid="default-article-audio-player"></div></div><div class="sc-ZpFXC ikbtJF"></div></div></header><section class="yle__article__content"><aside class="sc-dxpuJR eMFpeC yle__article__aside" aria-label="Faktaruta"><div class="sc-frtHmg hpFJxu"><div class="sc-kPjdqr cjDWZT"><h2 class="sc-flQbIK iMPmBE yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Kortversion</h2><div id=":Rppbcq:" aria-hidden="true" class="sc-btRGtK LUhyl"><div tabindex="-1" inert=""><ul class="sc-bACthX kVoeF yle__article__list yle__article__list--ul"><li class="sc-duGFKm hPraiZ">USA:s militära skydd ses inte längre som en garant för allierade, vilket kan leda till kärnvapenutveckling i andra länder.</li><li class="sc-duGFKm hPraiZ">Flera internationella avtal för kärnvapenkontroll är under press, vilket oroar experter och påverkar stabiliteten.</li><li class="sc-duGFKm hPraiZ">Analytiker menar att det blir komplexare att förutsäga kärnvapendynamiken om fler nationer skaffar egna arsenaler.</li></ul><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Sammanfattningen är gjord med stöd av AI och har granskats av en journalist. <a class="sc-irDnDc bAHixw yle__article__link" href="https://yle.fi/a/7-10068969" role="link">Vad tycker du om sammanfattningar? Ge respons</a>.</p></div></div><div class="sc-dqSOdN lkNryF"><div><button aria-label="Öppna Faktaruta" aria-disabled="false" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls=":Rppbcq:" class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-0 ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-2 hkXxLi eEigQy"><span class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-7 evfPYu yds-button__content">Öppna</span><span class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-4 ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-6 ldESLe kTNNhq yds-button__icon"><svg width="24" height="24" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" class="sc-fkXaGc cWxREF"><path fill="currentColor" d="M5.293 9.293a1 1 0 0 1 1.414 0L12 14.586l5.293-5.293a1 1 0 1 1 1.414 1.414l-6 6a1 1 0 0 1-1.414 0l-6-6a1 1 0 0 1 0-1.414"></path></svg></span></button></div></div></div></div></aside><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Att USA:s militära och nukleära skydd inte lägre kan tas för givet av dess allierade betyder att flera andra länder kan börja överväga att skaffa en egen kärnvapenarsenal.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Polens president <strong class="sc-fQMTnL jFPcdh yle__article__strong">Andrzej Duda</strong> har sagt att man vill ha amerikanska kärnvapen placerade på polsk mark för att skydda sig mot hotet från Ryssland.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Frankrikes president <strong class="sc-fQMTnL jFPcdh yle__article__strong">Emmanuel Macron</strong> har också sagt att han tänker vara i kontakt med europeiska allierade, bland annat Tyskland, om att flytta in dem under det franska kärnvapenparaplyet.</p><figure class="sc-jcvEFQ hSACyE yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"7-10074968","@context":"https://schema.org","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","description":"Polens president Andrzej Duda sa i en intervju nyligen att han vill se att USA placerar kärnvapen på polsk mark, för att gardera sig inför osäkerheten vid Natos östra flank.","copyrightHolder":"Marcin Obara / EPA","url":"https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.502982107355865,c_fill,g_faces,h_510,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-1364788670fddda8031f","keywords":"Polen,Andrzej Duda"}}</script><div class="sc-jIiDBi sc-lncAYT krYthw kjaNNf"><div class="sc-gtlvkJ ddgSYf"><div class="sc-jHswkR cEPfYZ"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.502982107355865,c_fill,g_faces,h_510,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1729093152/39-1364788670fddda8031f 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.502982107355865,c_fill,g_faces,h_510,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1729093152/39-1364788670fddda8031f 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.502982107355865,c_fill,g_faces,h_423,w_636/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1729093152/39-1364788670fddda8031f 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.502982107355865,c_fill,g_faces,h_423,w_636/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1729093152/39-1364788670fddda8031f 1x"/><img alt="regeringsbyggnad. Han håller på att ge ett anförande eller föredrag." src="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_3402,w_6048,x_0,y_172/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1729093152/39-1364788670fddda8031f" loading="lazy" class="sc-cSaEAk cdhOGu"/></picture></div><div class="sc-beKSRx hHCGQd"><button aria-disabled="false" class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-0 ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-2 hkXxLi eEigQy"><span class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-7 evfPYu yds-button__content">Öppna bildvisare</span></button></div></div></div><figcaption class="sc-fCSSOr kGprtX"><span>Polens president Andrzej Duda sa i en intervju nyligen att han vill se att USA placerar kärnvapen på polsk mark, för att gardera sig inför osäkerheten vid Natos östra flank.</span><span> Bild: Marcin Obara / EPA</span></figcaption></figure><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Sydkorea har precis som Japan sedan länge haft en policy om att inte skaffa kärnvapen. Det finns också ett stort samhälleligt motstånd mot dem.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Men alltsedan Rysslands invasion av Ukraina och det tätnande samarbetet mellan Nordkorea och Ryssland har fler och fler sydkoreanska politiker börjat flirta med tanken på att utveckla egna kärnvapen för att garantera sin säkerhet.</p><h2 class="sc-flQbIK iMPmBE yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Vad händer med avskräckningsförmågan om fler och fler har kärnvapen?</h2><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Det stora argumentet för att ha kärnvapen är att det uppstår en avskräckningseffekt, att man inte vågar anfalla för att motståndaren kan ta till de här vapnen.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">En fråga som lyfts upp i sammanhanget är hur avskräckande det verkligen blir om allt fler länder har dem?</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph"><strong class="sc-fQMTnL jFPcdh yle__article__strong">Karl Sörenson</strong>, forskningsledare för kärnvapenanalysprogrammet vid Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut i Sverige, menar att bara för att länder diskuterar scenarion behöver det inte betyda att det triggar någon slags kärnvapenspridning.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">– Om Sydkorea eller Polen vill få amerikanska kärnvapen placerade hos sig kan man diskutera ifall det är en spridningsfråga eller inte, för då fattas fortfarande besluten om att använda dem i USA, säger Sörenson.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">– Men om Sydkorea skaffar egna kärnvapen har vi plötsligt flera beslutscentra, och det förändrar dynamiken.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Att USA oroar sig för det senare framgår i alla fall av att Sydkorea numera klassas som ett ”känsligt” land i den här frågan. Processen att omklassa Sydkorea började under Bidenadministrationen och placerar Sydkorea i samma grupp som Kina, Taiwan, Israel och Ryssland.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">I praktiken kan klassificeringen göra det svårare för Sydkorea att få tag på uran och det som behövs för att anrika det så att det kan användas till kärnvapen.</p><figure class="sc-jcvEFQ hSACyE yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"7-10074968","@context":"https://schema.org","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","description":"Nordkoreas ledare Kim Jong-un tycker om att svänga sig med stora ord och besöka militäranläggningar för att projicera makt. På bilden inspekterar han en ballistisk robot som potentiellt kan bära kärnvapen.","copyrightHolder":"EPA","url":"https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.5088715400993613,c_fill,g_faces,h_508,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-109117164229a1281d41","keywords":"Nordkorea,Nordkoreas kärnvapenprogram,kärnvapen"}}</script><div class="sc-jIiDBi sc-lncAYT krYthw eAcvoz"><div class="sc-gtlvkJ ddgSYf"><div class="sc-jHswkR cEPfYZ"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.5088715400993613,c_fill,g_faces,h_508,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1679989367/39-109117164229a1281d41 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.5088715400993613,c_fill,g_faces,h_508,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1679989367/39-109117164229a1281d41 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.5088715400993613,c_fill,g_faces,h_421,w_636/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1679989367/39-109117164229a1281d41 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.5088715400993613,c_fill,g_faces,h_421,w_636/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1679989367/39-109117164229a1281d41 1x"/><img alt="Kim Jong-un står vid en ballistisk robot." src="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_2391,w_4252,x_0,y_121/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1679989367/39-109117164229a1281d41" loading="lazy" class="sc-cSaEAk cdhOGu"/></picture></div><div class="sc-beKSRx hHCGQd"><button aria-disabled="false" class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-0 ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-2 hkXxLi eEigQy"><span class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-7 evfPYu yds-button__content">Öppna bildvisare</span></button></div></div></div><figcaption class="sc-fCSSOr kGprtX"><span>Nordkoreas ledare Kim Jong-un tycker om att svänga sig med stora ord och besöka militäranläggningar för att projicera makt. På bilden inspekterar han en ballistisk robot som potentiellt kan bära kärnvapen.</span><span> Bild: EPA</span></figcaption></figure><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Men Sörenson säger också att det konstigt nog kan finnas en viss avskräckningseffekt i att allierade skaffar sig kärnvapen.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">– Om exempelvis Sydkorea skaffar egna kärnvapen kommer de ha sin egen avskräckning mot Nordkorea.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Dessutom, säger Sörenson, kan då Sydkorea också på sätt och vis agera skydd för Japan och USA som Nordkorea också ofta hotar, och ge USA en slags avlastning.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">– På så sätt kan det kanske snarare bidra till en slags stabilitet, säger Sörenson.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Enligt Sörenson handlar avskräckning om att man inte vill rubba stabiliteten.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">– Alternativet ska alltid vara värre än status quo, säger han.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Det här vet Nordkorea och Kina, så om de inte vill att Sydkorea ska skaffa kärnvapen är det bästa de kan göra att inte vara för aggressiva med sina kärnvapen runt Sydkorea, säger Sörenson.</p><h2 class="sc-flQbIK iMPmBE yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Eskalationskedjan är svår att förutsäga</h2><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Problemet i dagsläget är inte nödvändigtvis bara att flera skaffar sig kärnvapen, utan att det bidrar till en allt större komplexitet som gör saker svåra att förutsäga.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Sörenson säger att han ser på saken som en väv av olika kärnvapenstater där länderna har olika agendor och kan påverka varandra på oväntade sätt.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">– Ryssland och USA är fortfarande de stora, så det de gör kommer att ha mera effekter på de andra. Men ju fler som rör på sig, desto mera måste de andra justera sina egna positioner.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Flera spelare kan betyda att det blir stabilare, men också att det blir större risker för eskalation för att det är är flera inblandade.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Enligt Sörenson ska man dock inte se en orsaks- och verkanskedja som en självklarhet.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">– Pakistans och Nordkoreas kärnvapen har ju i princip inget med varandra att göra, till exempel. Så man måste hela tiden se hur olika länder förhåller sig till varandra. Det kommer att vara situationsberoende och aktörsberoende.</p><h2 class="sc-flQbIK iMPmBE yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Brutna avtal och politisk instabilitet är oroande</h2><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Det finns en del internationella avtal i kraft som ska se till att hanteringen och spridningen av kärnvapen sker under kontrollerade former.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Kärnan utgörs av det så kallade icke-spridningsavtalet. Det finns också ett avtal som förbjuder kärnvapenprov, men det är ännu inte i kraft. År 2017 togs också ett nytt avtal fram, FN:s konvention om förbud mot kärnvapen, som trädde i kraft 2021.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Utöver detta finns ett antal avtal som gäller de två stora kärnvapenmakterna USA och Ryssland.</p><aside class="sc-dxpuJR eMFpeC yle__article__aside" aria-label="Faktaruta"><div class="sc-frtHmg hpFJxu"><div class="sc-kPjdqr cjDWZT"><h2 class="sc-flQbIK iMPmBE yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Kärnvapenavtalen i korthet</h2><div id=":Rhppbcq:" aria-hidden="true" class="sc-btRGtK LUhyl"><div tabindex="-1" inert=""><ol class="sc-bCJEqc jnSPar yle__article__list yle__article__list--ol"><li class="sc-iqszwL JsyFJ">Icke-spridningsavtalet (NPT): Detta avtal trädde i kraft 1970 och syftar till att förhindra spridningen av kärnvapen och kärnvapenteknologi, främja fredlig användning av kärnenergi, och sträva mot kärnvapennedrustning. Det har tre huvudsakliga pelare: icke-spridning, nedrustning, och rätt till fredlig användning av kärnenergi.</li><li class="sc-iqszwL JsyFJ">START-avtalen (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty): Dessa är bilaterala avtal mellan USA och Ryssland (tidigare Sovjetunionen) som syftar till att minska antalet strategiska kärnvapen. Det första START-avtalet undertecknades 1991, och det har följts av flera efterföljande avtal, inklusive New START som trädde i kraft 2011.</li><li class="sc-iqszwL JsyFJ">INF-avtalet (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty): Detta avtal mellan USA och Sovjetunionen undertecknades 1987 och syftade till att eliminera medeldistansrobotar. Avtalet upphörde dock 2019 när USA drog sig ur det, med hänvisning till ryska överträdelser.</li><li class="sc-iqszwL JsyFJ">CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty): Detta avtal, som öppnades för undertecknande 1996, förbjuder alla kärnvapenprov. Avtalet har ännu inte trätt i kraft eftersom vissa nyckelländer, inklusive USA och Kina, inte har ratificerat det.</li><li class="sc-iqszwL JsyFJ">TNP (Fördraget om förbud mot kärnvapen): Antaget av FN 2017, syftar detta fördrag till att helt förbjuda kärnvapen. Det trädde i kraft 2021, men har inte undertecknats av de flesta kärnvapenstaterna.</li></ol></div></div><div class="sc-dqSOdN lkNryF"><div><button aria-label="Öppna Faktaruta" aria-disabled="false" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls=":Rhppbcq:" class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-0 ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-2 hkXxLi eEigQy"><span class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-7 evfPYu yds-button__content">Öppna</span><span class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-4 ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-6 ldESLe kTNNhq yds-button__icon"><svg width="24" height="24" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" class="sc-fkXaGc cWxREF"><path fill="currentColor" d="M5.293 9.293a1 1 0 0 1 1.414 0L12 14.586l5.293-5.293a1 1 0 1 1 1.414 1.414l-6 6a1 1 0 0 1-1.414 0l-6-6a1 1 0 0 1 0-1.414"></path></svg></span></button></div></div></div></div></aside><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">I flera fall har avtalen bara undertecknats av en del länder, och de är ofta föremål för en del juridiska och politiska strider som syftar till att ge det egna landet friare händer i förhållande till avtalen.</p><figure class="sc-jcvEFQ hSACyE yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"7-10074968","@context":"https://schema.org","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","description":"USA:s dåvarande president Barack Obama och Tysklands dåvarande förbundskansler Angela Merkel möttes under ett toppmöte om nukleär säkerhet 2010. Internationellt amarbete kring kärnvapen och kärnteknikfrågor är en viktig del av arbetet att hindra en farlig utveckling som kan få katastrofala konsekvenser.","copyrightHolder":"Ron Sachs/UPI/Shutterstock/All Over Press","url":"https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_0.7983333333333333,c_fill,g_faces,h_960,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-144323067e6beb86db00","keywords":"USA,Tyskland,Barack Obama,Angela Merkel"}}</script><div class="sc-jIiDBi sc-lncAYT krYthw rzRRv"><div class="sc-gtlvkJ ddgSYf"><div class="sc-jHswkR cEPfYZ"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_0.7983333333333333,c_fill,g_faces,h_960,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1743175419/39-144323067e6beb86db00 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_0.7983333333333333,c_fill,g_faces,h_960,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1743175419/39-144323067e6beb86db00 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_0.7983333333333333,c_fill,g_faces,h_796,w_636/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1743175419/39-144323067e6beb86db00 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_0.7983333333333333,c_fill,g_faces,h_796,w_636/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1743175419/39-144323067e6beb86db00 1x"/><img alt="Barack Obama och Angela Merkel." src="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1347,w_2395,x_0,y_502/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1743175419/39-144323067e6beb86db00" loading="lazy" class="sc-cSaEAk cdhOGu"/></picture></div><div class="sc-beKSRx hHCGQd"><button aria-disabled="false" class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-0 ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-2 hkXxLi eEigQy"><span class="ydscr__sc-17sr1bx-7 evfPYu yds-button__content">Öppna bildvisare</span></button></div></div></div><figcaption class="sc-fCSSOr kGprtX"><span>USA:s dåvarande president Barack Obama och Tysklands dåvarande förbundskansler Angela Merkel möttes under ett toppmöte om nukleär säkerhet 2010. Internationellt amarbete kring kärnvapen och kärnteknikfrågor är en viktig del av arbetet att hindra en farlig utveckling som kan få katastrofala konsekvenser.</span><span> Bild: Ron Sachs/UPI/Shutterstock/All Over Press</span></figcaption></figure><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Den förra Trumpadministrationen sa upp INF-avtalet, och Ryssland meddelade 2023 att de tänker lägga START-avtalet på is. Dock sa Rysslands president <strong class="sc-fQMTnL jFPcdh yle__article__strong">Vladimir Putin</strong> att man fortfarande är del av avtalet och att man inte har för avsikt att tillverka flera kärnvapen.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Enligt analytiker handlar det mera om att man inte tänker tillåta inspektioner som förut, men i praktiken betyder det att kontrollen av kärnvapen i världen minskar.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">– Alla de här avtalen håller på att gå upp i sömmarna av en eller annan anledning, säger Sörenson.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Han påpekar också att Kina inte har skrivit på något START-avtal eller motsvarande.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Iran har också valt att inte låta internationella inspektörer granska deras utveckling av kärnkapacitet, som Iran hävdar är till för fredliga energisyften men som många, framförallt Israel, oroar sig för är ett steg mot att utveckla kärnvapen.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">Karl Sörensson ser utvecklingen som oroande, men ännu inte som något katastrofalt.</p><p class="sc-ktvNQe sc-WwxRR hUYdmX eUVjgm yle__article__paragraph">– Jag brukar likna det vid ett jordskred. Man känner först skälvningarna, och det behöver inte bli illa, men det kan bli det. Man vet inte riktigt var det är på väg, säger han.</p></section><footer class="yle__article__footer"><div class="sc-ejHFSJ dThUXz"></div><h2 class="sc-iwcoAb kxKcux">Mer om ämnet: Paketet innehåller 3 länkar</h2><h2 class="sc-gQJZgv fSSIlI yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--3" aria-hidden="true">Mer om ämnet</h2><div class="yle__article__links" role="list" aria-label="Mer om ämnet"><div role="listitem" class="sc-cUkrys cUaBKR"><div class="sc-ROZ gtDjCK"><div class="sc-gLyBZa zYYNc"><div class="sc-eFAVCh ldGXag"><div class="sc-dtiPAi ifUdfR"><a href="https://yle.fi/t/18-217329/sv" aria-label="Fler artiklar om ämnet Säkerhet" class="ydscr__sc-w5hh4y-0 ftZGBr sc-gjXmFk eZuwUz">Säkerhet</a></div><h3 class="sc-bJgkWg fUXAcZ"><a href="https://yle.fi/a/7-10070631" class="sc-gpDAgj bqJzjZ">Experter: Trump kan få fler att skaffa kärnvapen</a></h3><time class="sc-ezeoWd cuJOAJ">22.1.</time></div></div><div class="sc-dRpcpH cLenyZ"><div class="sc-gwagMn hzSqmX"><div class="sc-jHswkR cEPfYZ"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_2160,w_2160,x_438,y_0/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1736860254/39-14063546786612852ecc 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_2160,w_2160,x_438,y_0/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1736860254/39-14063546786612852ecc 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1629,w_2897,x_0,y_181/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1736860254/39-14063546786612852ecc 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1629,w_2897,x_0,y_181/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1736860254/39-14063546786612852ecc 1x"/><img alt="Collagebild med en man och en kvinna i inomhusmiljö." src="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1629,w_2897,x_0,y_181/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1736860254/39-14063546786612852ecc" class="sc-cSaEAk cdhOGu"/></picture></div></div></div></div></div><div aria-hidden="true" class="sc-keRagD gSHcNq"><hr class="sc-gkCgsS hxgUHg"/></div><div role="listitem" class="sc-cUkrys cUaBKR"><div class="sc-ROZ gtDjCK"><div class="sc-gLyBZa zYYNc"><div class="sc-eFAVCh ldGXag"><div class="sc-dtiPAi ifUdfR"><a href="https://yle.fi/t/18-210550/sv" aria-label="Fler artiklar om ämnet Krig" class="ydscr__sc-w5hh4y-0 ftZGBr sc-gjXmFk eZuwUz">Krig</a></div><h3 class="sc-bJgkWg fUXAcZ"><a href="https://yle.fi/a/7-10074351" class="sc-gpDAgj bqJzjZ">Världen rustar upp – här är en snabb titt på vilka länder som har kärnvapen</a></h3><time class="sc-ezeoWd cuJOAJ">26.3.</time></div></div><div class="sc-dRpcpH cLenyZ"><div class="sc-gwagMn hzSqmX"><div class="sc-jHswkR cEPfYZ"><picture><source 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class="sc-jHswkR cEPfYZ"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1280,w_1280,x_547,y_0/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1678082788/39-107499063f2c456612e5 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1280,w_1280,x_547,y_0/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1678082788/39-107499063f2c456612e5 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1920,x_0,y_111/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1678082788/39-107499063f2c456612e5 2x,https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1080,w_1920,x_0,y_111/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1678082788/39-107499063f2c456612e5 1x"/><img alt="Militärplan flyger i V-formation. 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","source":"EPA","aspect":1.4994179278230502,"caption":"När USA:s kärnvapenparaply ter sig allt mera osäkert funderar flera mindre länder på alternativ, som exempelvis Sydkorea som bor granne med en fientlig makt med egna kärnvapen.","id":"39-1016301633b961ea200c","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"fin","value":"Etelä-korealaiset katsovat uutisista Pohjois-Korean ohjuslaukaisua."},{"language":"swe","value":"Sydkoreaner tittade på nyheter om Nordkoreas senaste robottest på järnvägsstationen i Seoul. "}],"blurhash":"LrFFR8M{D$t8^-RjITogbvoJadWX","tags":[{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Pohjois-Korea"},{"language":"fin","value":"Pohjois-Korea"},{"language":"swe","value":"Nordkorea"}],"extId":"18-194560"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Ballistic Missiles"},{"language":"fin","value":"Ballistinen ohjus"},{"language":"swe","value":"ballistisk robot"}],"extId":"18-148162"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Missile Testing"},{"language":"fin","value":"ohjuskokeet"},{"language":"swe","value":"missiltester"}],"extId":"18-61600"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile"},{"language":"fin","value":"Keskipitkän matkan ballistiset ohjukset"},{"language":"swe","value":"Intermediate-range ballistic missile"}],"extId":"18-61410"}],"copyright":[{"language":"und","value":"EPA"}],"crops":[{"name":"16:9","aspect":1.78,"coordinates":{"x":0,"y":0,"width":5152,"height":2898}},{"name":"2:3","aspect":0.67,"coordinates":{"x":1437,"y":0,"width":2290,"height":3436}},{"name":"1:1","aspect":1,"coordinates":{"x":1142,"y":0,"width":3436,"height":3436}},{"name":"5:2","aspect":2.5,"coordinates":{"x":12,"y":374,"width":5140,"height":2056}}],"height":3436,"licence":{"id":"1","name":[{"language":"und","value":"EPA"}],"properties":[]},"created":"2022-10-04T05:10:38+03:00","modified":"2022-10-04T13:30:31+03:00","version":"1664879423","width":5152,"recommendedFormat":"jpg"}],"authors":[{"organization":"Yle","image":{"alt":"Thomas Silén","source":"Yle \u002F Camilla Fagerholm","aspect":1,"id":"14-svyle-20701154ae7ba5bd049","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"swe","value":"Thomas Silén"}],"blurhash":"LiPQ1@_N_34T~WE1IoxZNGofaet7","tags":[{"label":[{"language":"swe","value":"thomas silen"}],"extId":""}],"copyright":[{"language":"und","value":"Yle \u002F Camilla Fagerholm"}],"crops":[{"name":"16:9","aspect":1.78,"coordinates":{"x":1044,"y":31,"width":2848,"height":1605}},{"name":"2:3","aspect":0.67,"coordinates":{"x":1641,"y":0,"width":1628,"height":2448}},{"name":"1:1","aspect":1,"coordinates":{"x":956,"y":0,"width":2446,"height":2448}}],"height":2448,"licence":{"id":"6","name":[{"language":"und","value":"Yle"}],"properties":[]},"created":"2015-01-08T14:44:21+02:00","modified":"2015-03-26T16:34:12+02:00","version":"1420721146","width":4024,"recommendedFormat":"jpg"},"id":"56-7-285","name":"Thomas Silén","type":"Person"}],"datePublished":"2025-03-29T06:29:01+0200","dateContentModified":"2025-03-29T06:29:01+0200","dateJsonModified":"2025-03-29T10:41:51+0200","publisher":{"name":"svenska-nyheter"},"publication":"svenska.yle.fi","content":[{"level":1,"text":"Vad händer om allt fler skaffar sig kärnvapen?","type":"heading"},{"alt":"Sydkoreaner tittade på nyheter om Nordkoreas senaste robottest på järnvägsstationen i Seoul. ","source":"EPA","aspect":1.4994179278230502,"caption":"När USA:s kärnvapenparaply ter sig allt mera osäkert funderar flera mindre länder på alternativ, som exempelvis Sydkorea som bor granne med en fientlig makt med egna kärnvapen.","id":"39-1016301633b961ea200c","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"fin","value":"Etelä-korealaiset katsovat uutisista Pohjois-Korean ohjuslaukaisua."},{"language":"swe","value":"Sydkoreaner tittade på nyheter om Nordkoreas senaste robottest på järnvägsstationen i Seoul. "}],"blurhash":"LrFFR8M{D$t8^-RjITogbvoJadWX","tags":[{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Pohjois-Korea"},{"language":"fin","value":"Pohjois-Korea"},{"language":"swe","value":"Nordkorea"}],"extId":"18-194560"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Ballistic Missiles"},{"language":"fin","value":"Ballistinen ohjus"},{"language":"swe","value":"ballistisk robot"}],"extId":"18-148162"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Missile Testing"},{"language":"fin","value":"ohjuskokeet"},{"language":"swe","value":"missiltester"}],"extId":"18-61600"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile"},{"language":"fin","value":"Keskipitkän matkan ballistiset ohjukset"},{"language":"swe","value":"Intermediate-range ballistic missile"}],"extId":"18-61410"}],"copyright":[{"language":"und","value":"EPA"}],"crops":[{"name":"16:9","aspect":1.78,"coordinates":{"x":0,"y":0,"width":5152,"height":2898}},{"name":"2:3","aspect":0.67,"coordinates":{"x":1437,"y":0,"width":2290,"height":3436}},{"name":"1:1","aspect":1,"coordinates":{"x":1142,"y":0,"width":3436,"height":3436}},{"name":"5:2","aspect":2.5,"coordinates":{"x":12,"y":374,"width":5140,"height":2056}}],"height":3436,"licence":{"id":"1","name":[{"language":"und","value":"EPA"}],"properties":[]},"created":"2022-10-04T05:10:38+03:00","modified":"2022-10-04T13:30:31+03:00","version":"1664879423","width":5152,"recommendedFormat":"jpg"},{"text":"USA:s opålitlighet gör kärnvapen attraktiva för allierade.","type":"text"},{"context":"ai_summary","behaviour":"collapsed","content":[{"text":"Kortversion","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"items":["USA:s militära skydd ses inte längre som en garant för allierade, vilket kan leda till kärnvapenutveckling i andra länder.","Flera internationella avtal för kärnvapenkontroll är under press, vilket oroar experter och påverkar stabiliteten.","Analytiker menar att det blir komplexare att förutsäga kärnvapendynamiken om fler nationer skaffar egna arsenaler."],"type":"bullet-list"},{"text":"Sammanfattningen är gjord med stöd av AI och har granskats av en journalist. [Vad tycker du om sammanfattningar? Ge respons](https:\u002F\u002Fyle.fi\u002Fa\u002F7-10068969).","type":"text"}],"type":"aside"},{"text":"Att USA:s militära och nukleära skydd inte lägre kan tas för givet av dess allierade betyder att flera andra länder kan börja överväga att skaffa en egen kärnvapenarsenal.","type":"text"},{"text":"Polens president **Andrzej Duda** har sagt att man vill ha amerikanska kärnvapen placerade på polsk mark för att skydda sig mot hotet från Ryssland.","type":"text"},{"text":"Frankrikes president **Emmanuel Macron** har också sagt att han tänker vara i kontakt med europeiska allierade, bland annat Tyskland, om att flytta in dem under det franska kärnvapenparaplyet.","type":"text"},{"displayStyle":"normal","alt":"regeringsbyggnad. Han håller på att ge ett anförande eller föredrag.","source":"Marcin Obara \u002F EPA","aspect":1.502982107355865,"caption":"Polens president Andrzej Duda sa i en intervju nyligen att han vill se att USA placerar kärnvapen på polsk mark, för att gardera sig inför osäkerheten vid Natos östra flank.","id":"39-1364788670fddda8031f","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"fin","value":"Puolan presidentti Andrzej Duda parlamenttikeskustelussa tiistaina, 15.10.2024."},{"language":"swe","value":"regeringsbyggnad. Han håller på att ge ett anförande eller föredrag."}],"blurhash":"L27,=LNt00n,4mxGOFS5}kbHEnV@","tags":[{"label":[{"language":"fin","value":"Puola"},{"language":"swe","value":"Polen"}],"extId":"18-198486"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Andrzej Duda"},{"language":"fin","value":"Andrzej Duda"},{"language":"swe","value":"Andrzej Duda"}],"extId":"18-161276"}],"copyright":[{"language":"und","value":"Marcin Obara \u002F EPA"}],"crops":[{"name":"16:9","aspect":1.78,"coordinates":{"x":0,"y":172,"width":6048,"height":3402}}],"height":4024,"licence":{"id":"1","name":[{"language":"und","value":"EPA"}],"properties":[]},"created":"2024-10-16T18:38:02+03:00","modified":"2025-03-28T16:26:07+02:00","version":"1729093152","width":6048,"recommendedFormat":"jpg"},{"text":"Sydkorea har precis som Japan sedan länge haft en policy om att inte skaffa kärnvapen. Det finns också ett stort samhälleligt motstånd mot dem.","type":"text"},{"text":"Men alltsedan Rysslands invasion av Ukraina och det tätnande samarbetet mellan Nordkorea och Ryssland har fler och fler sydkoreanska politiker börjat flirta med tanken på att utveckla egna kärnvapen för att garantera sin säkerhet.","type":"text"},{"text":"Vad händer med avskräckningsförmågan om fler och fler har kärnvapen?","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Det stora argumentet för att ha kärnvapen är att det uppstår en avskräckningseffekt, att man inte vågar anfalla för att motståndaren kan ta till de här vapnen.","type":"text"},{"text":"En fråga som lyfts upp i sammanhanget är hur avskräckande det verkligen blir om allt fler länder har dem?","type":"text"},{"text":"**Karl Sörenson**, forskningsledare för kärnvapenanalysprogrammet vid Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut i Sverige, menar att bara för att länder diskuterar scenarion behöver det inte betyda att det triggar någon slags kärnvapenspridning.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Om Sydkorea eller Polen vill få amerikanska kärnvapen placerade hos sig kan man diskutera ifall det är en spridningsfråga eller inte, för då fattas fortfarande besluten om att använda dem i USA, säger Sörenson.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Men om Sydkorea skaffar egna kärnvapen har vi plötsligt flera beslutscentra, och det förändrar dynamiken.","type":"text"},{"text":"Att USA oroar sig för det senare framgår i alla fall av att Sydkorea numera klassas som ett ”känsligt” land i den här frågan. Processen att omklassa Sydkorea började under Bidenadministrationen och placerar Sydkorea i samma grupp som Kina, Taiwan, Israel och Ryssland.","type":"text"},{"text":"I praktiken kan klassificeringen göra det svårare för Sydkorea att få tag på uran och det som behövs för att anrika det så att det kan användas till kärnvapen.","type":"text"},{"displayStyle":"normal","alt":"Kim Jong-un står vid en ballistisk robot.","source":"EPA","aspect":1.5088715400993613,"caption":"Nordkoreas ledare Kim Jong-un tycker om att svänga sig med stora ord och besöka militäranläggningar för att projicera makt. På bilden inspekterar han en ballistisk robot som potentiellt kan bära kärnvapen.","id":"39-109117164229a1281d41","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"fin","value":"Kim Jong-unille esitellään uusia ydinkärkiä."},{"language":"swe","value":"Kim Jong-un står vid en ballistisk robot."}],"blurhash":"LOGuq3ITWAs.~VoIofRj~pt6M{Io","tags":[{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Pohjois-Korea"},{"language":"fin","value":"Pohjois-Korea"},{"language":"swe","value":"Nordkorea"}],"extId":"18-194560"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"North Korea and weapons of mass destruction"},{"language":"fin","value":"Pohjois-Korean ydinaseohjelma"},{"language":"swe","value":"Nordkoreas kärnvapenprogram"}],"extId":"18-147239"},{"label":[{"language":"fin","value":"ydinaseet"},{"language":"sme","value":"atomavearjjut"},{"language":"swe","value":"kärnvapen"}],"extId":"18-218620"}],"copyright":[{"language":"und","value":"EPA"}],"crops":[{"name":"16:9","aspect":1.78,"coordinates":{"x":0,"y":121,"width":4252,"height":2391}},{"name":"2:3","aspect":0.67,"coordinates":{"x":712,"y":0,"width":1878,"height":2817}},{"name":"1:1","aspect":1,"coordinates":{"x":482,"y":0,"width":2817,"height":2817}},{"name":"5:2","aspect":2.5,"coordinates":{"x":0,"y":328,"width":4249,"height":1699}}],"height":2818,"licence":{"id":"1","name":[{"language":"und","value":"EPA"}],"properties":[]},"created":"2023-03-28T10:41:06+03:00","modified":"2025-03-28T10:27:31+02:00","version":"1679989367","width":4252,"recommendedFormat":"jpg"},{"text":"Men Sörenson säger också att det konstigt nog kan finnas en viss avskräckningseffekt i att allierade skaffar sig kärnvapen.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Om exempelvis Sydkorea skaffar egna kärnvapen kommer de ha sin egen avskräckning mot Nordkorea.","type":"text"},{"text":"Dessutom, säger Sörenson, kan då Sydkorea också på sätt och vis agera skydd för Japan och USA som Nordkorea också ofta hotar, och ge USA en slags avlastning.","type":"text"},{"text":"– På så sätt kan det kanske snarare bidra till en slags stabilitet, säger Sörenson.","type":"text"},{"text":"Enligt Sörenson handlar avskräckning om att man inte vill rubba stabiliteten.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Alternativet ska alltid vara värre än status quo, säger han.","type":"text"},{"text":"Det här vet Nordkorea och Kina, så om de inte vill att Sydkorea ska skaffa kärnvapen är det bästa de kan göra att inte vara för aggressiva med sina kärnvapen runt Sydkorea, säger Sörenson.","type":"text"},{"text":"Eskalationskedjan är svår att förutsäga","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Problemet i dagsläget är inte nödvändigtvis bara att flera skaffar sig kärnvapen, utan att det bidrar till en allt större komplexitet som gör saker svåra att förutsäga.","type":"text"},{"text":"Sörenson säger att han ser på saken som en väv av olika kärnvapenstater där länderna har olika agendor och kan påverka varandra på oväntade sätt.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Ryssland och USA är fortfarande de stora, så det de gör kommer att ha mera effekter på de andra. Men ju fler som rör på sig, desto mera måste de andra justera sina egna positioner.","type":"text"},{"text":"Flera spelare kan betyda att det blir stabilare, men också att det blir större risker för eskalation för att det är är flera inblandade.","type":"text"},{"text":"Enligt Sörenson ska man dock inte se en orsaks- och verkanskedja som en självklarhet.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Pakistans och Nordkoreas kärnvapen har ju i princip inget med varandra att göra, till exempel. Så man måste hela tiden se hur olika länder förhåller sig till varandra. Det kommer att vara situationsberoende och aktörsberoende.","type":"text"},{"text":"Brutna avtal och politisk instabilitet är oroande","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Det finns en del internationella avtal i kraft som ska se till att hanteringen och spridningen av kärnvapen sker under kontrollerade former.","type":"text"},{"text":"Kärnan utgörs av det så kallade icke-spridningsavtalet. Det finns också ett avtal som förbjuder kärnvapenprov, men det är ännu inte i kraft. År 2017 togs också ett nytt avtal fram, FN:s konvention om förbud mot kärnvapen, som trädde i kraft 2021.","type":"text"},{"text":"Utöver detta finns ett antal avtal som gäller de två stora kärnvapenmakterna USA och Ryssland.","type":"text"},{"behaviour":"collapsed","content":[{"text":"Kärnvapenavtalen i korthet","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"items":["Icke-spridningsavtalet (NPT):\n\nDetta avtal trädde i kraft 1970 och syftar till att förhindra spridningen av kärnvapen och kärnvapenteknologi, främja fredlig användning av kärnenergi, och sträva mot kärnvapennedrustning. Det har tre huvudsakliga pelare: icke-spridning, nedrustning, och rätt till fredlig användning av kärnenergi.","START-avtalen (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty): Dessa är bilaterala avtal mellan USA och Ryssland (tidigare Sovjetunionen) som syftar till att minska antalet strategiska kärnvapen. Det första START-avtalet undertecknades 1991, och det har följts av flera efterföljande avtal, inklusive New START som trädde i kraft 2011.","INF-avtalet (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty): Detta avtal mellan USA och Sovjetunionen undertecknades 1987 och syftade till att eliminera medeldistansrobotar. Avtalet upphörde dock 2019 när USA drog sig ur det, med hänvisning till ryska överträdelser.","CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty): Detta avtal, som öppnades för undertecknande 1996, förbjuder alla kärnvapenprov. Avtalet har ännu inte trätt i kraft eftersom vissa nyckelländer, inklusive USA och Kina, inte har ratificerat det.","TNP (Fördraget om förbud mot kärnvapen): Antaget av FN 2017, syftar detta fördrag till att helt förbjuda kärnvapen. Det trädde i kraft 2021, men har inte undertecknats av de flesta kärnvapenstaterna."],"type":"numbered-list"}],"type":"aside"},{"text":"I flera fall har avtalen bara undertecknats av en del länder, och de är ofta föremål för en del juridiska och politiska strider som syftar till att ge det egna landet friare händer i förhållande till avtalen.","type":"text"},{"displayStyle":"normal","alt":"Barack Obama och Angela Merkel.","source":"Ron Sachs\u002FUPI\u002FShutterstock\u002FAll Over Press","aspect":0.7983333333333333,"caption":"USA:s dåvarande president Barack Obama och Tysklands dåvarande förbundskansler Angela Merkel möttes under ett toppmöte om nukleär säkerhet 2010. Internationellt amarbete kring kärnvapen och kärnteknikfrågor är en viktig del av arbetet att hindra en farlig utveckling som kan få katastrofala konsekvenser.","id":"39-144323067e6beb86db00","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"swe","value":"Barack Obama och Angela Merkel."}],"blurhash":"LGGblJ0003xs0H_4x_D@PEIUVt%M","tags":[{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"USA"},{"language":"fin","value":"Yhdysvallat"},{"language":"swe","value":"USA"}],"extId":"18-193507"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Saksa"},{"language":"fin","value":"Saksa"},{"language":"swe","value":"Tyskland"}],"extId":"18-177448"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Barack Obama"},{"language":"fin","value":"Barack Obama"},{"language":"swe","value":"Barack Obama"}],"extId":"18-176606"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Angela Merkel"},{"language":"fin","value":"Angela Merkel"},{"language":"swe","value":"Angela Merkel"}],"extId":"18-127898"}],"copyright":[{"language":"und","value":"Ron Sachs\u002FUPI\u002FShutterstock\u002FAll Over Press"}],"crops":[{"name":"16:9","aspect":1.78,"coordinates":{"x":0,"y":502,"width":2395,"height":1347}},{"name":"2:3","aspect":0.67,"coordinates":{"x":299,"y":0,"width":1992,"height":2993}},{"name":"1:1","aspect":1,"coordinates":{"x":0,"y":149,"width":2395,"height":2395}}],"height":3000,"licence":{"id":"5","name":[{"language":"und","value":"All Over Press"}],"properties":[]},"created":"2025-03-28T17:22:32+02:00","modified":"2025-03-28T17:23:43+02:00","version":"1743175419","width":2395,"recommendedFormat":"jpg"},{"text":"Den förra Trumpadministrationen sa upp INF-avtalet, och Ryssland meddelade 2023 att de tänker lägga START-avtalet på is. Dock sa Rysslands president **Vladimir Putin** att man fortfarande är del av avtalet och att man inte har för avsikt att tillverka flera kärnvapen.","type":"text"},{"text":"Enligt analytiker handlar det mera om att man inte tänker tillåta inspektioner som förut, men i praktiken betyder det att kontrollen av kärnvapen i världen minskar.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Alla de här avtalen håller på att gå upp i sömmarna av en eller annan anledning, säger Sörenson.","type":"text"},{"text":"Han påpekar också att Kina inte har skrivit på något START-avtal eller motsvarande.","type":"text"},{"text":"Iran har också valt att inte låta internationella inspektörer granska deras utveckling av kärnkapacitet, som Iran hävdar är till för fredliga energisyften men som många, framförallt Israel, oroar sig för är ett steg mot att utveckla kärnvapen.","type":"text"},{"text":"Karl Sörensson ser utvecklingen som oroande, men ännu inte som något katastrofalt.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Jag brukar likna det vid ett jordskred. Man känner först skälvningarna, och det behöver inte bli illa, men det kan bli det. Man vet inte riktigt var det är på väg, säger han.","type":"text"},{"type":"links","links":[{"external":{"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fyle.fi\u002Fa\u002F7-10070631"},"internal":{"id":"7-10070631"},"title":"Experter: Trump kan få fler att skaffa kärnvapen","datePublished":"2025-01-22T11:00:12+0200","subject":{"description":{"fi":"ulkoiset ominaisuudet","sv":"yttre 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