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style="--spacing-top:40px;--spacing-bottom:32px;--spacing-child-top:initial;--spacing-child-bottom:24px;--spacing-firstChild-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-lastChild-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-compact-top:24px;--spacing-compact-bottom:32px;--spacing-firstChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-compact-top:initial;--spacing-child-compact-bottom:24px;--spacing-lastChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-compact-bottom:initial" class="dHdHP jLREf zXXje aGO eCClZ nTLv jLsYA gmuro TOSFd VmeZt sCkVm hkQai wGrlE MUuGM fciaN qQjt DhNVo Tgcqk IGLAf tWjkv "><div class="kCTVx qtHut lqtkC HkWF HfYhe kGyAC " data-testid="prism-headline"><h1 class="vMjAx gjbzK tntuS xZEw mTgUP "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">How immigration swung voters of color to Trump</span></h1><p class="jxTEW Poyse uieav lqtkC HkWF HfYhe kGyAC "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Trump gained among nonwhite voters with conservative views on immigration.</span></p></div><div class="QHblV nkdHX kvZxL hTosT whbOj " data-testid="prism-byline"><div class="VZTD mLASH OcxMG oJce "><div class="kKfXc ubAkB VZTD rEPuv "><div class="TQPvQ fVlAg HUcap kxY REjk UamUc WxHIR HhZOB yaUf VOJBn KMpjV XSbaH Umfib ukdDD "><span class="tChGB zbFav ">By</span><span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/author/michael_tesler">Michael Tesler</a></span><span><span class="EpNlu "> </span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.com/538"><span class="YKjhS "><img 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src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/4045fe88-3a90-4892-9d4d-a5a578f25e4a/trump-deportation-1-gty-bb-241119_1732041967372_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=992"/></div></figure><div class="MediaPlaceholder__Overlay absolute-fill flex flex-center-all"><div class="MediaPlaceholder__Button flex flex-center-all"><svg focusable="false" aria-hidden="true" class="MediaPlaceholder__Icon MediaPlaceholder__Icon--video icon__svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><use xlink:href="#icon__controls__play"></use></svg></div><div aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Duration: 4:44" class="MediaPlaceholder__Pill items-center absolute flex">4:44</div></div><div class="MediaPlaceholder__PlaybackWrapper absolute-fill"></div></div><div class="Caption__Wrapper"><div class="Caption"><div class="Caption__TextWrapper"><div class="Caption__Text" aria-live="polite"><span class="Truncate Truncate--collapsed"><span><span class="RichText">Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks alongside National Border Patrol Union members after they endorsed Trump, during a campaign rally at Findlay Toyota Arena, Oct. 13, 2024, in Prescott Valley, Ariz.</span></span></span></div></div><span aria-label="Caitlin O'hara/AFP via Getty Images" class="RichText Caption__Credit">Caitlin O'hara/AFP via Getty Images</span></div></div></div></aside></div></div></div></div><div class="ScrollSpy_container"><span></span></div><div class="XQpSH " data-testid="prism-divider"></div><div class="xvlfx ZRifP TKoO eaKKC EcdEg bOdfO " data-testid="prism-article-body"><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao MvWXB TjIXL aGjvy ebVHC">President-elect Donald Trump's relatively strong showing among voters of color has been one of the most striking takeaways from the 2024 election. According to <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/votecast/" target="_blank">data from AP VoteCast</a>, the Associated Press's next-generation spin on the traditional exit poll, Trump's share of the Black and Latino vote increased by 8 points each between 2020 and 2024.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Analysts have proposed several different explanations for those shifts, including <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://nypost.com/2024/11/06/us-news/fuming-joe-scarborough-blames-racism-misogyny-among-black-and-hispanic-voters-for-harris-loss/" target="_blank">sexism within communities of color</a>, pessimistic views of <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://apnews.com/article/young-black-latino-men-trump-economy-jobs-9184ca85b1651f06fd555ab2df7982b5" target="_blank">the economy and inflation</a>, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/18/msnbc-analyst-suggests-black-voters-shifting-to-trump-because-of-disinformation/" target="_blank">disinformation</a>, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/briefing/hispanic-black-americans-election-poll.html" target="_blank">social class</a> and the <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.ft.com/content/73a1836d-0faa-4c84-b973-554e2ca3a227" target="_blank">ongoing ideological sorting of nonwhite conservatives</a> into the Republican Party. While there's probably merit in some of these, my analyses suggest that one of the biggest factors behind Trump's growing support from nonwhite voters may be opposition to immigration.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">There are two main reasons for this. First, nonwhite Americans' attitudes about immigration moved sharply to the right during President Joe Biden's term. That resulted in a much larger pool of Black and Latino voters who were receptive to Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric. Second, voters of color with conservative immigration attitudes were especially likely to defect from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 — even after accounting for other plausible reasons for these changes.</p><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">Shifts in immigration opinions</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Back in August, I wrote about how the rise in anti-immigrant sentiments <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/immigration-issue-trump-2020/story?id=112648693" target="_blank">made immigration a winning issue for Trump</a> in the 2024 campaign. That article, along with a <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://democracyfund.org/idea/pushed-and-pulled/" target="_blank">recent Democracy Fund report</a>, explained how the public's immigration attitudes have largely followed the changing discourse about the issue since Biden became president. As politicians and the media shifted from criticizing unpopular Trump-era policies like family separation to expressing concern about the record number of border crossings under Biden, Americans' opinions moved in a similar direction.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Those sizable shifts were not limited to any single racial or ethnic group, either. In fact, the chart below shows that the percentage of white, Latino and Black Americans who agreed with the statement "immigrants drain national resources" all increased dramatically from June 2020 through December 2023 in <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/immigrants-drain-national-resources" target="_blank">YouGov's biweekly tracker surveys</a>.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div class=" " data-testid="prism-static-embed" role="region"><div class="kUPWF evNvN "></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">This same trend appears in the 2016 and 2024 exit polls as well (the 2020 exit poll did not ask about immigration). The share of Black voters who preferred deporting unauthorized immigrants to offering them a path to citizenship doubled from 12 percent in 2016 to 24 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, the share of Latinos said the same increased from 17 percent to 27 percent.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">To be sure, this data shows that large majorities of nonwhite voters still oppose policies like mass deportation. But the rightward shifts in immigration opinions under Biden provided Trump with a much larger reservoir of receptive nonwhite voters whom he could target with anti-immigrant appeals. As <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/trump-voters-black-latino.html" target="_blank">The New York Times reported last month</a>, "Trump is seeking to win over Black and Latino voters by pitting them against undocumented immigrants, whom he has long blamed for a litany of economic, public safety, national security and social problems."</p><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">Immigration attitudes and vote shifts</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">The campaign's strategy seems to have succeeded. Indeed, data from <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50489-yougov-first-mrp-estimates-of-the-2024-presidential-election" target="_blank">YouGov's SAY24 project</a> suggests that immigration attitudes played a powerful part in shifting some of Biden's 2020 voters over to Trump in 2024.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">The YouGov/SAY24 project has a few big advantages over other surveys in estimating such shifts among voters of color. For starters, its enormous August-September 2024 poll of almost 100,000 likely voters provides relatively large samples of Latino, Black and Asian Americans. YouGov also surveyed most of these same respondents four years ago and asked them how they voted in the 2020 election. We can, therefore, calculate net shifts in support for Trump by simply subtracting these panelists' support for him in 2020 from their 2024 vote intentions.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">The chart below plots those 2020 to 2024 vote shifts for white, Latino, Black and Asian Americans according to how they felt about using the military to deport unauthorized immigrants.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div class=" " data-testid="prism-static-embed" role="region"><div class="kUPWF evNvN "></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">The chart shows that Trump actually lost a bit of support from 2020 to September 2024 among voters who opposed this policy, regardless of their race. You can see, instead, that Trump's gains were heavily concentrated among voters of color who supported using the military for deportations. His vote share increased by 8 points from 2020 to 2024 among both Black and Asian Americans who favored this policy, and he performed 10 points better than he did four years ago among Latinos with more conservative views of immigration. Trump did not improve nearly as much with white voters who have anti-immigrant attitudes in large part because this group already <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691213453/the-bitter-end" target="_blank">overwhelmingly supported</a> him in 2016 and 2020.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">It's important to note that this strong relationship between immigration attitudes and vote shifts to Trump remains intact even after controlling for such factors as sexism, ideological conservatism, education, age, gender and income. In other words, Trump's growing support among nonwhite voters with anti-immigrant attitudes isn't merely a byproduct of the fact that these voters also tend to be less educated, more ideologically conservative or more sexist.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Nor is this relationship likely an artifact of these voters simply adopting Trump's immigration opinions after they've already decided to support him for some other reason, like inflation. John Sides and I <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://goodauthority.org/news/america-is-less-polarized-by-race-but-more-polarized-about-race/" target="_blank">showed back in April</a> that Latinos who have shifted away from Democrats in recent years already had more conservative views about race to begin with. And our <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691196435/identity-crisis" target="_blank">prior research</a> found that white Americans who supported less immigration before 2015 were the most likely to support Trump in 2016 after voting for former President Barack Obama in 2012.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">We'll need more post-election data to help pinpoint the causes and durability of Trump's surging support from voters of color. But these preliminary findings strongly suggest that immigration attitudes are a big piece of the puzzle. They also dovetail with prior political science research showing that voters of color who had shifted to Trump from 2016 to 2020 had more conservative views about <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/embracing-the-status-hierarchy-how-immigration-attitudes-prejudice-and-sexism-shaped-nonwhite-support-for-trump/9F91070372394D892BF11E1FFC0C619F" target="_blank">race</a> and <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/reversion-to-the-mean-or-their-version-of-the-dream-latino-voting-in-an-age-of-populism/D5FDF66C474541B3AABB4498BA59184C" target="_blank">immigration</a>.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">So, even though voting was less polarized by race and ethnicity in 2024 than it's been in the past, racial attitudes and opinions about immigration are more important than ever in explaining many people's votes.</p><div class="eTIW QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX sUzSN "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="transition:min-height 0.3s linear 1s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-outstream ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-outstream-1"></div></div></div></div></div><div></div><div class="Article__Footer Article__Footer--news"><div class="Article__Footer--items flex flex-wrap flex-no-wrap items-center justify-between"><section class="Share flex flex-no-wrap"></section></div><div 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OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-presidential-election-close-landslide/story?id=116240898" aria-label="The 2024 election was close, not a landslide 2024-11-26T20:46:05Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c232c846-c605-4e4a-9924-37339452ccb4/538_Main_TrumpCloseOrMandate_v02_ks_1732649141766_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="The2024electionwasclheadline">The 2024 election was close, not a landslide</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="The2024electionwasclpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 26, 3:46 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/gaetz-trumps-cabinet-picks-confirmed/story?id=116095491" aria-label="Will Trump's Cabinet picks be confirmed? 2024-11-21T21:14:29Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/c45c4516-efec-4d7f-925a-be83964b3ab7/Slackchart_16x9_241121_v02_DP_1732218049769_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="WillTrumpsCabinetpicheadline">Will Trump's Cabinet picks be confirmed?</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="WillTrumpsCabinetpicpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 21, 4:14 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Living/grandma-man-wanda-dench-jamal-hinton-reunite-thanksgiving/story?id=116214017" aria-label="Wanda Dench, Jamal Hinton to meet for Thanksgiving 2024-11-25T23:29:00Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/fc2c76ec-3a4d-4a2a-931d-bec74a56882c/thanksgiving-ht-er-241125_1732571541413_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="WandaDenchJamalHintoheadline">Wanda Dench, Jamal Hinton to meet for Thanksgiving</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="WandaDenchJamalHintopubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv 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According to ",{"type":"a","content":["data from AP VoteCast"],"attrs":{"href":"https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/votecast/","target":"_blank"}},", the Associated Press's next-generation spin on the traditional exit poll, Trump's share of the Black and Latino vote increased by 8 points each between 2020 and 2024."]},{"type":"p","content":["Analysts have proposed several different explanations for those shifts, including ",{"type":"a","content":["sexism within communities of color"],"attrs":{"href":"https://nypost.com/2024/11/06/us-news/fuming-joe-scarborough-blames-racism-misogyny-among-black-and-hispanic-voters-for-harris-loss/","target":"_blank"}},", pessimistic views of ",{"type":"a","content":["the economy and inflation"],"attrs":{"href":"https://apnews.com/article/young-black-latino-men-trump-economy-jobs-9184ca85b1651f06fd555ab2df7982b5","target":"_blank"}},", ",{"type":"a","content":["disinformation"],"attrs":{"href":"https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/18/msnbc-analyst-suggests-black-voters-shifting-to-trump-because-of-disinformation/","target":"_blank"}},", ",{"type":"a","content":["social class"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/briefing/hispanic-black-americans-election-poll.html","target":"_blank"}}," and the ",{"type":"a","content":["ongoing ideological sorting of nonwhite conservatives"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.ft.com/content/73a1836d-0faa-4c84-b973-554e2ca3a227","target":"_blank"}}," into the Republican Party. While there's probably merit in some of these, my analyses suggest that one of the biggest factors behind Trump's growing support from nonwhite voters may be opposition to immigration."]},{"type":"p","content":["There are two main reasons for this. First, nonwhite Americans' attitudes about immigration moved sharply to the right during President Joe Biden's term. That resulted in a much larger pool of Black and Latino voters who were receptive to Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric. Second, voters of color with conservative immigration attitudes were especially likely to defect from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 — even after accounting for other plausible reasons for these changes."]},{"type":"h2","content":["Shifts in immigration opinions"]},{"type":"p","content":["Back in August, I wrote about how the rise in anti-immigrant sentiments ",{"type":"a","content":["made immigration a winning issue for Trump"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/immigration-issue-trump-2020/story?id=112648693","target":"_blank"}}," in the 2024 campaign. That article, along with a ",{"type":"a","content":["recent Democracy Fund report"],"attrs":{"href":"https://democracyfund.org/idea/pushed-and-pulled/","target":"_blank"}},", explained how the public's immigration attitudes have largely followed the changing discourse about the issue since Biden became president. As politicians and the media shifted from criticizing unpopular Trump-era policies like family separation to expressing concern about the record number of border crossings under Biden, Americans' opinions moved in a similar direction."]},{"type":"p","content":["Those sizable shifts were not limited to any single racial or ethnic group, either. In fact, the chart below shows that the percentage of white, Latino and Black Americans who agreed with the statement \"immigrants drain national resources\" all increased dramatically from June 2020 through December 2023 in ",{"type":"a","content":["YouGov's biweekly tracker surveys"],"attrs":{"href":"https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/immigrants-drain-national-resources","target":"_blank"}},"."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"MarkupEmbed","props":{"markup":"%3Ciframe%20title%3D%22Americans%20increasingly%20view%20immigrants%20as%20a%20%27drain%27%22%20aria-label%3D%22Interactive%20line%20chart%22%20id%3D%22datawrapper-chart-Lp6wp%22%20src%3D%22https%3A//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lp6wp/1/%22%20scrolling%3D%22no%22%20frameborder%3D%220%22%20style%3D%22width%3A%200%3B%20min-width%3A%20100%25%20%21important%3B%20border%3A%20none%3B%22%20height%3D%22507%22%20data-external%3D%221%22%3E%3C/iframe%3E%3Cscript%20type%3D%22text/javascript%22%3E%21function%28%29%7B%22use%20strict%22%3Bwindow.addEventListener%28%22message%22%2C%28function%28a%29%7Bif%28void%200%21%3D%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29%7Bvar%20e%3Ddocument.querySelectorAll%28%22iframe%22%29%3Bfor%28var%20t%20in%20a.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29for%28var%20r%3D0%3Br%3Ce.length%3Br++%29if%28e%5Br%5D.contentWindow%3D%3D%3Da.source%29%7Bvar%20i%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%5Bt%5D+%22px%22%3Be%5Br%5D.style.height%3Di%7D%7D%7D%29%29%7D%28%29%3B%3C/script%3E","caption":{"title":"","source":""},"encMethod":"esc","useSafeFrame":false,"requestProps":{"stateKey":"markup"}},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["This same trend appears in the 2016 and 2024 exit polls as well (the 2020 exit poll did not ask about immigration). The share of Black voters who preferred deporting unauthorized immigrants to offering them a path to citizenship doubled from 12 percent in 2016 to 24 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, the share of Latinos said the same increased from 17 percent to 27 percent."]},{"type":"p","content":["To be sure, this data shows that large majorities of nonwhite voters still oppose policies like mass deportation. But the rightward shifts in immigration opinions under Biden provided Trump with a much larger reservoir of receptive nonwhite voters whom he could target with anti-immigrant appeals. As ",{"type":"a","content":["The New York Times reported last month"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/trump-voters-black-latino.html","target":"_blank"}},", \"Trump is seeking to win over Black and Latino voters by pitting them against undocumented immigrants, whom he has long blamed for a litany of economic, public safety, national security and social problems.\""]},{"type":"h2","content":["Immigration attitudes and vote shifts"]},{"type":"p","content":["The campaign's strategy seems to have succeeded. Indeed, data from ",{"type":"a","content":["YouGov's SAY24 project"],"attrs":{"href":"https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50489-yougov-first-mrp-estimates-of-the-2024-presidential-election","target":"_blank"}}," suggests that immigration attitudes played a powerful part in shifting some of Biden's 2020 voters over to Trump in 2024."]},{"type":"p","content":["The YouGov/SAY24 project has a few big advantages over other surveys in estimating such shifts among voters of color. For starters, its enormous August-September 2024 poll of almost 100,000 likely voters provides relatively large samples of Latino, Black and Asian Americans. YouGov also surveyed most of these same respondents four years ago and asked them how they voted in the 2020 election. We can, therefore, calculate net shifts in support for Trump by simply subtracting these panelists' support for him in 2020 from their 2024 vote intentions."]},{"type":"p","content":["The chart below plots those 2020 to 2024 vote shifts for white, Latino, Black and Asian Americans according to how they felt about using the military to deport unauthorized immigrants."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"MarkupEmbed","props":{"markup":"%3Ciframe%20title%3D%22Voters%20of%20color%20who%20favor%20deportations%20swung%20to%20Trump%22%20aria-label%3D%22Grouped%20Bars%22%20id%3D%22datawrapper-chart-HQTKC%22%20src%3D%22https%3A//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HQTKC/1/%22%20scrolling%3D%22no%22%20frameborder%3D%220%22%20style%3D%22width%3A%200%3B%20min-width%3A%20100%25%20%21important%3B%20border%3A%20none%3B%22%20height%3D%22497%22%20data-external%3D%221%22%3E%3C/iframe%3E%3Cscript%20type%3D%22text/javascript%22%3E%21function%28%29%7B%22use%20strict%22%3Bwindow.addEventListener%28%22message%22%2C%28function%28a%29%7Bif%28void%200%21%3D%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29%7Bvar%20e%3Ddocument.querySelectorAll%28%22iframe%22%29%3Bfor%28var%20t%20in%20a.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29for%28var%20r%3D0%3Br%3Ce.length%3Br++%29if%28e%5Br%5D.contentWindow%3D%3D%3Da.source%29%7Bvar%20i%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%5Bt%5D+%22px%22%3Be%5Br%5D.style.height%3Di%7D%7D%7D%29%29%7D%28%29%3B%3C/script%3E","caption":{"title":"","source":""},"encMethod":"esc","useSafeFrame":false,"requestProps":{"stateKey":"markup"}},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["The chart shows that Trump actually lost a bit of support from 2020 to September 2024 among voters who opposed this policy, regardless of their race. You can see, instead, that Trump's gains were heavily concentrated among voters of color who supported using the military for deportations. His vote share increased by 8 points from 2020 to 2024 among both Black and Asian Americans who favored this policy, and he performed 10 points better than he did four years ago among Latinos with more conservative views of immigration. Trump did not improve nearly as much with white voters who have anti-immigrant attitudes in large part because this group already ",{"type":"a","content":["overwhelmingly supported"],"attrs":{"href":"https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691213453/the-bitter-end","target":"_blank"}}," him in 2016 and 2020."]},{"type":"p","content":["It's important to note that this strong relationship between immigration attitudes and vote shifts to Trump remains intact even after controlling for such factors as sexism, ideological conservatism, education, age, gender and income. In other words, Trump's growing support among nonwhite voters with anti-immigrant attitudes isn't merely a byproduct of the fact that these voters also tend to be less educated, more ideologically conservative or more sexist."]},{"type":"p","content":["Nor is this relationship likely an artifact of these voters simply adopting Trump's immigration opinions after they've already decided to support him for some other reason, like inflation. John Sides and I ",{"type":"a","content":["showed back in April"],"attrs":{"href":"https://goodauthority.org/news/america-is-less-polarized-by-race-but-more-polarized-about-race/","target":"_blank"}}," that Latinos who have shifted away from Democrats in recent years already had more conservative views about race to begin with. And our ",{"type":"a","content":["prior research"],"attrs":{"href":"https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691196435/identity-crisis","target":"_blank"}}," found that white Americans who supported less immigration before 2015 were the most likely to support Trump in 2016 after voting for former President Barack Obama in 2012."]},{"type":"p","content":["We'll need more post-election data to help pinpoint the causes and durability of Trump's surging support from voters of color. But these preliminary findings strongly suggest that immigration attitudes are a big piece of the puzzle. They also dovetail with prior political science research showing that voters of color who had shifted to Trump from 2016 to 2020 had more conservative views about ",{"type":"a","content":["race"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/embracing-the-status-hierarchy-how-immigration-attitudes-prejudice-and-sexism-shaped-nonwhite-support-for-trump/9F91070372394D892BF11E1FFC0C619F","target":"_blank"}}," and ",{"type":"a","content":["immigration"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/reversion-to-the-mean-or-their-version-of-the-dream-latino-voting-in-an-age-of-populism/D5FDF66C474541B3AABB4498BA59184C","target":"_blank"}},"."]},{"type":"p","content":["So, even though voting was less polarized by race and ethnicity in 2024 than it's been in the past, racial attitudes and opinions about immigration are more important than ever in explaining many people's votes."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"kvps":{"pos":"fitt-article-inline-outstream-1"},"type":"fitt-article-inline-outstream","className":"fitt-article-inline-outstream"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1},"regular":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1}}},"context":{},"config":{}}}]],"blockquote":{"simple":true,"disableQuotationMark":true},"dateline":"","wordCount":1022},"config":{"gridDisplayMode":"none"},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"RelatedTags","props":{"heading":"Related Topics","tags":[]},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"ArticleFooter","props":{"key":"footer-undefined","shareURLs":{},"title":"","dividerData":{"logoAlt":"ABC News","logoSrc":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/icomoon/svg/logo.svg","logoSize":"xxxl","logoDefaultImg":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/icomoon/svg/logo.svg","logoHeight":56,"logoWidth":112,"className":"StoryDivider--logo"},"socialShareSize":16,"showComments":true},"config":{}},{"name":"Taboola","props":{"data":{"network":"abcnews-abcnews","mode":"thumbnails-a","container":"taboola-below-article-thumbnails","type":"article","targetType":"mix","placement":"Below Article Thumbnails"},"src":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/immigration-swung-voters-color-trump/story?id=116016407","position":"bottom","pageType":"article"},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true}],"topComponents":[],"endComponents":[{"name":"NewsletterForm","props":{"articleConfig":{"align":"full"},"placement":"sidebar","isCloseable":false,"heading":"Want the latest politics news? 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According to <a href=\"https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/votecast/\" target=\"_blank\">data from AP VoteCast</a>, the Associated Press's next-generation spin on the traditional exit poll, Trump's share of the Black and Latino vote increased by 8 points each between 2020 and 2024.</p><p>Analysts have proposed several different explanations for those shifts, including <a href=\"https://nypost.com/2024/11/06/us-news/fuming-joe-scarborough-blames-racism-misogyny-among-black-and-hispanic-voters-for-harris-loss/\" target=\"_blank\">sexism within communities of color</a>, pessimistic views of <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/young-black-latino-men-trump-economy-jobs-9184ca85b1651f06fd555ab2df7982b5\" target=\"_blank\">the economy and inflation</a>, <a href=\"https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/18/msnbc-analyst-suggests-black-voters-shifting-to-trump-because-of-disinformation/\" target=\"_blank\">disinformation</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/briefing/hispanic-black-americans-election-poll.html\" target=\"_blank\">social class</a> and the <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/73a1836d-0faa-4c84-b973-554e2ca3a227\" target=\"_blank\">ongoing ideological sorting of nonwhite conservatives</a> into the Republican Party. While there's probably merit in some of these, my analyses suggest that one of the biggest factors behind Trump's growing support from nonwhite voters may be opposition to immigration.</p><p>There are two main reasons for this. First, nonwhite Americans' attitudes about immigration moved sharply to the right during President Joe Biden's term. That resulted in a much larger pool of Black and Latino voters who were receptive to Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric. Second, voters of color with conservative immigration attitudes were especially likely to defect from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 — even after accounting for other plausible reasons for these changes.</p><h2>Shifts in immigration opinions</h2><p>Back in August, I wrote about how the rise in anti-immigrant sentiments <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/immigration-issue-trump-2020/story?id=112648693\" target=\"_blank\">made immigration a winning issue for Trump</a> in the 2024 campaign. That article, along with a <a href=\"https://democracyfund.org/idea/pushed-and-pulled/\" target=\"_blank\">recent Democracy Fund report</a>, explained how the public's immigration attitudes have largely followed the changing discourse about the issue since Biden became president. As politicians and the media shifted from criticizing unpopular Trump-era policies like family separation to expressing concern about the record number of border crossings under Biden, Americans' opinions moved in a similar direction.</p><p>Those sizable shifts were not limited to any single racial or ethnic group, either. In fact, the chart below shows that the percentage of white, Latino and Black Americans who agreed with the statement \"immigrants drain national resources\" all increased dramatically from June 2020 through December 2023 in <a href=\"https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/immigrants-drain-national-resources\" target=\"_blank\">YouGov's biweekly tracker surveys</a>.</p><p><inline1></p><p>This same trend appears in the 2016 and 2024 exit polls as well (the 2020 exit poll did not ask about immigration). The share of Black voters who preferred deporting unauthorized immigrants to offering them a path to citizenship doubled from 12 percent in 2016 to 24 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, the share of Latinos said the same increased from 17 percent to 27 percent.</p><p>To be sure, this data shows that large majorities of nonwhite voters still oppose policies like mass deportation. But the rightward shifts in immigration opinions under Biden provided Trump with a much larger reservoir of receptive nonwhite voters whom he could target with anti-immigrant appeals. As <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/trump-voters-black-latino.html\" target=\"_blank\">The New York Times reported last month</a>, \"Trump is seeking to win over Black and Latino voters by pitting them against undocumented immigrants, whom he has long blamed for a litany of economic, public safety, national security and social problems.\"</p><h2>Immigration attitudes and vote shifts</h2><p>The campaign's strategy seems to have succeeded. Indeed, data from <a href=\"https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50489-yougov-first-mrp-estimates-of-the-2024-presidential-election\" target=\"_blank\">YouGov's SAY24 project</a> suggests that immigration attitudes played a powerful part in shifting some of Biden's 2020 voters over to Trump in 2024.</p><p>The YouGov/SAY24 project has a few big advantages over other surveys in estimating such shifts among voters of color. For starters, its enormous August-September 2024 poll of almost 100,000 likely voters provides relatively large samples of Latino, Black and Asian Americans. YouGov also surveyed most of these same respondents four years ago and asked them how they voted in the 2020 election. We can, therefore, calculate net shifts in support for Trump by simply subtracting these panelists' support for him in 2020 from their 2024 vote intentions.</p><p>The chart below plots those 2020 to 2024 vote shifts for white, Latino, Black and Asian Americans according to how they felt about using the military to deport unauthorized immigrants.</p><p><inline2></p><p>The chart shows that Trump actually lost a bit of support from 2020 to September 2024 among voters who opposed this policy, regardless of their race. You can see, instead, that Trump's gains were heavily concentrated among voters of color who supported using the military for deportations. His vote share increased by 8 points from 2020 to 2024 among both Black and Asian Americans who favored this policy, and he performed 10 points better than he did four years ago among Latinos with more conservative views of immigration. Trump did not improve nearly as much with white voters who have anti-immigrant attitudes in large part because this group already <a href=\"https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691213453/the-bitter-end\" target=\"_blank\">overwhelmingly supported</a> him in 2016 and 2020.</p><p>It's important to note that this strong relationship between immigration attitudes and vote shifts to Trump remains intact even after controlling for such factors as sexism, ideological conservatism, education, age, gender and income. In other words, Trump's growing support among nonwhite voters with anti-immigrant attitudes isn't merely a byproduct of the fact that these voters also tend to be less educated, more ideologically conservative or more sexist.</p><p>Nor is this relationship likely an artifact of these voters simply adopting Trump's immigration opinions after they've already decided to support him for some other reason, like inflation. John Sides and I <a href=\"https://goodauthority.org/news/america-is-less-polarized-by-race-but-more-polarized-about-race/\" target=\"_blank\">showed back in April</a> that Latinos who have shifted away from Democrats in recent years already had more conservative views about race to begin with. And our <a href=\"https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691196435/identity-crisis\" target=\"_blank\">prior research</a> found that white Americans who supported less immigration before 2015 were the most likely to support Trump in 2016 after voting for former President Barack Obama in 2012.</p><p>We'll need more post-election data to help pinpoint the causes and durability of Trump's surging support from voters of color. But these preliminary findings strongly suggest that immigration attitudes are a big piece of the puzzle. They also dovetail with prior political science research showing that voters of color who had shifted to Trump from 2016 to 2020 had more conservative views about <a href=\"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/embracing-the-status-hierarchy-how-immigration-attitudes-prejudice-and-sexism-shaped-nonwhite-support-for-trump/9F91070372394D892BF11E1FFC0C619F\" target=\"_blank\">race</a> and <a href=\"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/reversion-to-the-mean-or-their-version-of-the-dream-latino-voting-in-an-age-of-populism/D5FDF66C474541B3AABB4498BA59184C\" target=\"_blank\">immigration</a>.</p><p>So, even though voting was less polarized by race and ethnicity in 2024 than it's been in the past, racial attitudes and opinions about immigration are more important than ever in explaining many people's votes.</p>","publishedDate":"2024-11-20T17:45:44Z","contributors":[{"name":"Michael Tesler","url":"https://abcnews.go.com/author/michael_tesler","role":"","logo":"","logoAlt":"","units":[{}],"bureaus":[{}],"affiliateLogo":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/random/svg/fivethirtyeight_logo.svg","affiliateUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538","affiliate":"via five thirty eight"}],"authorsStr":"Michael Tesler","modifiedDate":"2024-11-20T17:49:18Z","section":"538","wordCount":1030,"relatedTags":{"heading":"Related Topics","tags":[]},"lead":{"ratio":"16x9","disableForMobile":false,"type":"xl","mediaType":"video","alignCaptionToBody":true},"ads":{"Sticky":{"kvps":{"test":true}},"RightRail":{"kvps":{"test":true}},"InlineBox":{},"InlineOutstream":{"disabled":false},"Taboola":{"position":"bottom","pageType":"article","config":{"network":"abcnews-abcnews","mode":"thumbnails-a","container":"taboola-below-article-thumbnails","type":"article","targetType":"mix","placement":"Below Article Thumbnails"}}},"featuredVideo":{"id":"115865711","type":"video","locator":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/video/2024-election-polls-showed-latino-electorate-115865711","issued":"2024-11-14T16:50:03Z","created":"2024-11-14T16:50:03Z","modified":"2024-11-14T17:39:31Z","date":"2024-11-14T16:50:03Z","keywords":["Latino voters","polls","electorate","Video","115865711"],"section":"538","genre":"Politics","title":"What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate","headline":"What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate","shortHeadline":"What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate","linkHeadline":"What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate","description":"Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.","leadInText":"Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.","duration":284000,"contents":{"image":{"id":"115865714","created":"2024-11-14T16:47:10Z","modified":"2024-11-14T16:47:33Z","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"name":"raw","ratio":"16x9","url":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/8980147c-9a5e-466b-8a2b-0788e720a9b7/241114_538Pod_pollingclip3_hpMain_16x9.jpg"},{"name":"12x5","ratio":"12x5","url":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/8980147c-9a5e-466b-8a2b-0788e720a9b7/241114_538Pod_pollingclip3_hpMain_12x5.jpg"},{"name":"16x9","ratio":"16x9","url":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/8980147c-9a5e-466b-8a2b-0788e720a9b7/241114_538Pod_pollingclip3_hpMain_16x9.jpg"},{"name":"4x3","ratio":"4x3","url":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/8980147c-9a5e-466b-8a2b-0788e720a9b7/241114_538Pod_pollingclip3_hpMain_4x3.jpg"},{"name":"4x5","ratio":"4x5","url":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/8980147c-9a5e-466b-8a2b-0788e720a9b7/241114_538Pod_pollingclip3_hpMain_4x5.jpg"},{"name":"9x16","ratio":"9x16","url":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/8980147c-9a5e-466b-8a2b-0788e720a9b7/241114_538Pod_pollingclip3_hpMain_9x16.jpg"},{"name":"square","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/8980147c-9a5e-466b-8a2b-0788e720a9b7/241114_538Pod_pollingclip3_hpMain_square.jpg"},{"name":"1x1","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/8980147c-9a5e-466b-8a2b-0788e720a9b7/241114_538Pod_pollingclip3_hpMain_square.jpg"}],"description":"Polls of Latino voters during the 2024 election were a mixed bag of accuracy. 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