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Mysteel周报：本周国内焊管价格跌幅较大 亏损空间扩大（7.19-7.26）-我的钢铁网
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style='color:#3861ab'>带钢</a>价格周环比价格下跌100元/吨，价格基本触底，但商家多对本次价格反弹空间存疑，商家仍是低价出货为主。目前市场风险仍存，商家投机行为减少，市场基本为刚需拿货，月底冲量较难。</p> <p>一、本周回顾</p> <p>【价格方面】</p> <p>本周全国主要城市焊管价格继续趋弱运行。据<a href="https://www.mysteel.com/" \t "https://gg.mysteel.com/22/0211/16/_blank">Mysteel</a>数据显示：截至7月26日，全国28个主要城市<a href="https://hanguan.mysteel.com/" \t "https://gg.mysteel.com/22/0211/16/_blank">焊管</a>4寸*3.75mm平均价格为3895元/吨，周环比下跌49元/吨；<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010905-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌管</a>4寸*3.75mm平均价格为4465元/吨，周环比下跌68元/吨。</p> <p>表1：全国主要城市焊管、镀锌管价格汇总(单位：元/吨)</p> <p><img style="max-width: 100%;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/26/e1a745c23d424c94bb214907a4d0fc9e.png" alt="企业微信截图_17219798131359" width="600" height="232" /></p> <p>【管厂调价】</p> <p>本周全国主流焊管厂出厂价格大幅下跌，淡季效应明显，成交继续转淡，本周黑色系期货价格再破新低，市场交投信心受挫，观望情绪渐起，管厂跟随原料带钢价格调整，市场贸易商被迫跟进报价，因前期价格多有倒挂，价格调整后亏损明显，叫苦连连。高温多雨天气持续，管厂产量维持低位，厂库维持累库情况。综合来看，预计下周焊管厂价格继续低位震荡整理。</p> <p>表2：国内主流焊管厂挂牌价调整情况(单位：元/吨)</p> <p><img style="max-width: 100%;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/26/98c2d0f07d964c20ad12702799dcccc4.png" alt="企业微信截图_17219840857174" width="600" height="156" /></p> <p><strong>【利润方面】</strong></p> <p>利润方面，以天津地区为例，本周焊管利润空间为-34元/吨，周环比增加30元/吨，月环比增加12元/吨，年同比减少78元/吨；镀锌管利润为-63.0元/吨，周环比减少3.6元/吨，月环比增加10.4元/吨，年同比减少162.0元/吨。图1：近年来镀锌管利润变化情况</p> <p><img style="max-width: 100%;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/26/71b482730fdd4b01aaa16d1fed381f5b.png" alt="企业微信截图_17219802533813" width="533" height="295" /></p> <p><strong>【区域评述】</strong></p> <p><strong><a href="https://huabei.mysteel.com/" \t "https://gg.mysteel.com/22/0211/16/_blank">华北</a>市场：</strong>本周华北焊管价格继续趋弱运行，期货方面震荡下行，原料<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0307-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢坯</a>价格整体呈现下跌走势。本地商家报价较上周均有下调，但受库存成本影响，商家报下调价格明显少于钢厂下调幅度。虽今日期货出现反弹，但本地商家暂未上调报价，多在观望为主。终端需求表现依旧不温不火，下游企业谨慎采购，整体成交一般。对于近期市场走势，价格可能会持续下跌，商家出货为主，短期来看，供需维持弱平衡格局，价格或将窄幅震荡运行，部分市场价格或仍有补降可能。</p> <p><strong>东北市场：</strong>本周东北市场焊管、镀锌管价格普遍下跌，且跌幅较大，价格方面，焊管4寸*3.75mm沈阳市场价格3720元/吨；长春市场价格3820元/吨，哈尔滨市场价格3830元/吨。市场方面，本周黑色系期货整体震荡偏弱运行，临近周末，黑色系小幅反弹，原料355带钢随盘面调整，现货主流价格3420元/吨，周环比跌70元/吨，近期东北市场出现强降雨天气，在一定程度上阻碍了市场出货，加之目前需求持续性较差，因此东北市场焊管成交不温不火，商家心态较为悲观，库存操作方面更为谨慎。综合来看，预计下周东北市场焊管价格或弱势震荡运行。</p> <p><strong><a href="https://huadong.mysteel.com/" \t "https://gg.mysteel.com/22/0211/16/_blank">华东</a>市场：</strong>本周华东地区焊管、镀锌管价格多数下跌。原料唐山<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>带钢价格较上周五下调70元/吨，本周原料价格先跌后涨，周五小幅反弹，淡季出货不佳，市场行情仍处于下跌通道。由于<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>新旧标准替换，期螺市场大幅下行，受此影响，原料价格下跌跟跌，商家暗降以刺激市场出货。管厂方面，本周全国焊管产量小幅下降，厂内库存连续五周攀升，原料库存小幅减少，贸易商淡季补货积极性不佳，多维持少量补货为主，社会库存小幅减少。台风天气影响，市场迎来大暴雨，下游施工条件不佳，采购不足。预计下周华东地区焊管、镀锌管价格震荡运行。</p> <p><strong>华南市场：</strong>本周黑色期货整体下跌，原料带钢价格累计下跌100元/吨，管厂跌价意愿不强，且主流管厂出厂价格今日跟随原料价格小幅反弹，本周累计下调100元/吨。本周管厂产量小幅下降，管厂出库量较上周明显减少，管厂库存继续增加。市场方面，本周广西地区高温天气影响，下游采购积极性持续下降，市场出货情况较差，价格跌幅扩大。本周原料价格大幅下跌，影响成品材价格跟跌，且商家受跌价行情和需求较差因素影响，基本不看好后期市场行情。综合来看，预计下周华南焊管、镀锌管价格继续偏弱运行。</p> <p><strong><a href="https://huazhong.mysteel.com/" \t "https://gg.mysteel.com/22/0211/16/_blank">华中</a>市场：</strong>本周宏观预期转弱，伴随市场悲观情绪迅速蔓延，华中市场焊管、镀锌管价格跟随期货走势明显下跌，周五期货有所反弹，不过市场信心仍显不足，现货价格多暂稳为主。当前市场淡季效应明显，贸易商出货较差下多以出货为主，即使在月底协议量压力下补库操作也明显减少，管厂同样在控制产量下厂内库存迎来连续五周累库，可见市场出货压力较大，涨价阻力较强。另外在钢厂亏损扩大减产意愿增强下，原料价格或有进一步下探可能。综上，预计下周华中市场焊管、镀锌管价格或继续弱势运行。</p> <p><strong><a href="https://xinan.mysteel.com/" \t "https://gg.mysteel.com/22/0211/16/_blank">西南</a>市场：</strong>本周西南市场焊管、镀锌管价格趋弱运行，焊管价格降10-70元/吨，镀锌管价格降30-80元/吨。本周瑞丰带钢价格较上周五下降100元/吨，管厂出厂价格随之震荡调整，受资金压力影响，西南地区工程整体开工率较往年明显下滑，近2月需求偏弱，淡季特征尤为明显，拿货速度放缓。再加上市场内卷，品牌竞争激烈，贸易商心态悲观，近两周西南地区贸易商多以出货为主，贸易商多选择降价以刺激市场出货，但贸易商下跌市场报价并未刺激需求的释放，市场整体成交情况明显弱于去年。目前云南地区下游需求释放有限，综合预计下周西南市场焊管价格或震荡趋弱运行。</p> <p><strong><a href="https://xibei.mysteel.com/" \t "https://gg.mysteel.com/22/0211/16/_blank">西北</a>市场：</strong>本周西北地区焊管价格趋弱运行。价格方面：西安、兰州、乌鲁木齐市场焊管4寸*3.75mm价格周环比下跌20-80元/吨，报3850元/吨、3940元/吨/4140元/吨。镀锌管方面，西安、兰州、乌鲁木齐市场镀锌管4寸*3.75mm价格周环比下跌60-100元/吨，报4490元/吨、4570元/吨、4500元/吨。原料方面，唐山市场355带钢价格3400元/吨，周环比下跌100元/吨。近几周原料价格下跌较快，临近月底贸易商按需补库，需求不及预期，持续下调价格，近期询单减少，贸易商报价偏弱为主，议价空间增大。本周黑色系期震荡下行，本周焊管产量明显减少，厂内库存继续回升。预计下周西北市场焊管、镀锌管或震荡偏弱运行。</p> <p><strong>二、下周预测</strong></p> <p><strong>【供应方面】</strong></p> <p>本周焊管产量明显减少，厂内库存继续回升。本周焊管产量31.99万吨，周环比减少1.77万吨，产能利用率为57.0%，周环比下降3.16%；镀锌管产量25.10万吨，周环比减少0.92万吨，产能利用率为61.9%，周环比下降2.27%；本周市场原料价格跌破低位，下游采购情绪表现较弱，贸易商多暗降出货，利润压缩贸易商补库积极性受挫。管厂库存继续回升，本周管厂库存（含镀锌管）为79.42万吨，较上周增长2.81%，月环比增长6.68%。管厂产量方面本周明显减少，但管厂出库方面不及预期，库存压力仍旧逐步累增，预计下周管厂或有一定政策让利，产量仍旧维持低位水平。</p> <p>表3：全国主要城市焊管、镀锌管产量、库存汇总(单位：万吨)</p> <p><strong><img style="max-width: 100%;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/26/689cfec20e3643e89a84f4c35a52f9c9.png" alt="4fe8f882f8395c58f27c6f2c0b376c3" width="600" height="233" /></strong></p> <p><strong>【成交方面】</strong></p> <p>本周全国焊管成交量较上周呈现大幅下降趋势，从全国日均成交量来看，本周全国日均成交量14153吨，较上周日均成交量减少2299吨，跌幅为13.97%。</p> <p>表4：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>焊管（含镀锌管）成交量(单位：吨)</p> <p><img style="max-width: 100%;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/26/5be2fc6fa5e344b49888ca4675952d01.png" alt="企业微信截图_17219849827577" width="600" height="190" /></p> <p><strong>【市场预测】</strong></p> <p>今日市场出现反弹，但后期反弹空间有限，当前多地受高温暴雨影响，需求延续弱势。且当前宏观叙事动力不足，价格多受基本面影响，厚实情绪仍旧偏空。不过焊管市场价格持续下跌，商家利润难以维持，且库内资源多为前期高价资源，整体跟跌意愿不强，经营压力增加的情况下，厂家多次调整出厂价格，但市场价格也多未跟随调整。月底商家多冲量，在反弹支撑情况不明的状态下，商家调价意愿较低，预计下周焊管价格或窄幅调整运行。</p> <p><strong>【前瞻观点】</strong></p> <p>国资委财务监管与运行评价局负责人刘绍娓在新闻发布会上表示，下一步，将坚持能给尽给、应给尽给原则，加大出资人政策支持力度，指导中央企业紧盯新一轮技术革命和产业变革方向，在本轮大规模设备更新中发挥表率引领作用。未来五年，中央企业预计安排大规模设备更新改造总投资超3万亿元。同时，我们要求中央企业在采购设备时对各类企业一视同仁，坚持买技术水平最好、性价比最高的装备，让质价双优的装备供应商脱颖而出。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：张帅 021-26096655 </br> 资讯监督：陈文花 02126093859 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title 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