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China in ‘tight spot’ as Korean peninsula hostilities test ‘strategic patience’ | South China Morning Post
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type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","item":{"@id":"https://www.scmp.com/news","name":"News"},"position":1},{"@type":"ListItem","item":{"@id":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china","name":"China"},"position":2},{"@type":"ListItem","item":{"@id":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy","name":"Diplomacy"},"position":3}]}</script><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@id":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3282924/china-tight-spot-korean-peninsula-hostilities-test-strategic-patience","@type":"WebPage"}</script><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":["NewsArticle","ReportageNewsArticle"],"alternativeHeadline":"China in ‘tight spot’ as Korean peninsula hostilities test ‘strategic patience’","articleBody":"With Pyongyang drumming up hostilities towards Seoul, a crisis is brewing on the Korean peninsula ahead of the US election – one that risks putting China off-balance and pushing the region to the brink of armed conflict, according to observers.\nOver the past two weeks, North Korea has revised its constitution to designate Seoul as a “top enemy”, blown up inter-Korean roads on its side of the border and threatened to attack the South over alleged drone incursions.\nSignalling China’s growing concerns, Beijing issued two statements this week – warning on Tuesday against “further escalation”, followed by a call on Thursday for a “political settlement” to ease tensions on the peninsula.\nNi Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military analyst, said Pyongyang’s repeated provocations had left China in an “awkward position”, especially given North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia against South Korea and the United States.\n“China has tried to remain neutral … on many hotspot issues, but it is particularly difficult to do that on North Korea, which is an ally of China’s,” he said. “China, which is preoccupied with economic woes at home, apparently does not want to get into trouble, nor does it want its friends to get into trouble.”\nRelations between the two Koreas started their downward slide in January, deteriorating rapidly after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the decades-old goal of reunification was no longer possible and Seoul was now his regime’s “principal enemy”.\nLast week, North Korea accused the South of using drones to drop anti-regime propaganda leaflets on its capital, Pyongyang. Kim, reportedly incensed by the “provocative” incursions, vowed to “permanently” seal the border with the South.\n\n\nThe destruction of roads and rail links leading to the south followed, prompting a “counter-fire” operation by Seoul.\nThe Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday that the tensions on the peninsula were “not in the common interests of all parties”.\n“The priority now is to avoid anything that may cause the tensions to further rise,” ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, without blaming North Korea.\nAfter Pyongyang confirmed on Thursday that it had revised the constitution to define South Korea as “a hostile state” for the first time, Mao said China “closely follows the developments on the Korean peninsula”.\n“China’s position on the Korean peninsula issue is consistent. We always believe that safeguarding peace and stability … and promoting the political settlement of the issue serves the common interests of all parties,” she said.\n“It is also hoped that all parties will make constructive efforts to this end.”\nAlthough Beijing, as Pyongyang’s main diplomatic and economic backer, has long played the North Korea card in its ties with Washington and Seoul, pundits detect little sign that China is interested in intervening in the escalating situation.\n\n“A crisis on the Korean peninsula is just a matter of time, but great powers are all waiting for the other side to do more to stop it,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Programme and co-director of the East Asia Programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington.\n“Both US and China are having a policy of ‘strategic patience’,” she said, adding that North Korea’s provocative brinkmanship was at least partially designed to seek US recognition of Pyongyang as a de facto nuclear-armed state.\nSun added that North Korea’s posturing was also about displaying aggressiveness towards the South. She noted that South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol “has not been the most cooperative” towards North Korea.\nAccording to Sun, Pyongyang “is bypassing the denuclearisation or unification questions [and] aiming for a legitimate status of nuclear power”. The timing was also calculated, with the US presidential elections less than three weeks away, she said.\n“The US election is coming. North Korea has hope for more engagement if [former president Donald] Trump wins. That is another factor that dictates North Korea must get US attention.”\nTrump has indicated on the campaign trail that he may renew personal ties with Kim and cut the number of US troops stationed in South Korea, while Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris said she would not “cosy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim … who are rooting for Trump”.\nWooyeal Paik, an associate professor and deputy director with the Yonsei Institute of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Pyongyang’s designation of anti-regime propaganda as “subversive threats” highlighted Kim’s insecurity.\n“His recent strategic direction to give up ‘reunification’ and change the ‘two Koreas’ relationship from ‘one ethnic country’ to ‘two adversarial countries’ shows that he’s trying to form a different inter-Korea relationship and ensuing regional security structures to insulate North Korea from the exterior shocks, especially, the American alliance system,” he said.\n\nNi – who also regards Kim’s escalation of hostilities towards South Korea as driven by his fears of subversion of the regime – said the future of the Korean peninsula hinged mainly on how far North Korea wanted to escalate the crisis.\n“[Kim’s] intention seems obvious – by blowing up its own railways and roads before any real conflict – that is, North Korea is unlikely to take an offensive posture in the event of a war,” Ni said.\n“It amounts to an admission that North Korea is at an absolute disadvantage in terms of conventional military strength [vis-a-vis the South].”\nIn Ni’s view, a major conflict is unlikely at least for now, because Kim is “too smart to overreact”, given his years of experience in walking the tightrope between China and the US, as well as between China and Russia.\nNonetheless, the latest escalation had put China in a tight spot, given Beijing’s limited leverage over Pyongyang and the recent North Korea-Russian alignment, he added.\n“China and Russia both have influence on North Korea, but North Korea is very close to Russia, whose influence has been increasing recently.”\nAccording to Ni, China can do little at this stage – partly because of the distrust between Beijing and Pyongyang, but also because of the negative impact on China of the quasi-alliance between North Korea and Russia.\n“And Russia certainly hopes to open up a new battlefield, even dragging China in, but I don’t think Kim is willing to be used by [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” Ni said.\n“China is in an awkward situation. It is certainly well aware of this triangular relationship and will exert its pressure privately and will not sit idle and watch the situation being manipulated by outsiders.”\n","articleSection":"Diplomacy","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Shi Jiangtao","sameAs":"https://www.scmp.com/author/shi-jiangtao"},"dateCreated":"2024-10-18T16:35:55+08:00","dateModified":"2024-10-18T20:00:10+08:00","datePublished":"2024-10-18T20:00:10+08:00","description":"With ","genre":"News","hasPart":{"@type":"WebPageElement","cssSelector":".piano-metering__paywall-container","isAccessibleForFree":"False"},"headline":"China in ‘tight spot’ as Korean peninsula hostilities test ‘strategic 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operator="out"></feComposite><feColorMatrix type="matrix" values="0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0"></feColorMatrix><feBlend mode="normal" in2="BackgroundImageFix" result="effect1_dropShadow_971_51319"></feBlend><feBlend mode="normal" in="SourceGraphic" in2="effect1_dropShadow_971_51319" result="shape"></feBlend></filter></defs></svg></figure></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-ContentContainer" class="css-wvfhp ea45u6l28"><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Author" class="css-plhgzi ea45u6l15"><div data-qa="AuthorNames-AuthorNamesContainer" class=" er6t7fe31 css-1fl3ncg eybiz6w3"><a target="_self" class="e163ld431 css-uvyeg2 e1llv60l0" href="/author/shi-jiangtao" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor">Shi Jiangtao</a></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-PublishDateTime" class="css-mbzp8v ea45u6l14"><div class=" er6t7fe25 css-1qbx4v2 efakuk42" data-qa="Article20Date-Container"><time dateTime="2024-10-18T12:00:10.000Z" data-qa="Article20Date-PublishedDate" class="css-0 efakuk41">Published: <!-- -->8:00pm, 18 Oct 2024</time></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Correction" class="css-1ou8zht ea45u6l11"></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Content" class="css-1u2o0u6 ea45u6l10"><section class="er6t7fe38 css-19sk4h4 e1pqt1t0" data-qa="ContentBody-ContentBodyContainer"><div class="js-reading-0-percent-completion-tracker css-19icq8a ekyy9du0" data-qa="useTrackViewedPercentageRender-trackViewedPercentageRenders-TrackPercentageBlock"></div><div datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1xdhyk6 ec74h0k0">With <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/north-korea?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">Pyongyang</span></a> drumming up hostilities towards Seoul, a crisis is brewing on the Korean peninsula ahead of the <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/news/us/us-elections?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">US election</span></a> – one that risks putting <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-north-korea-relations?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">China</span></a> off-balance and pushing the region to the brink of armed conflict, according to observers.</div><div data-qa="InlineAdSlot-Container" class=" css-zl1inp e11v3ui14"><div class="e11v3ui10 e11v3ui13 css-y2bwcc e1flwkbl0" data-qa="AdSlot-Container"><div data-qa="AdSlot-Label" class="css-1t8iakn e1flwkbl3">Advertisement</div><div data-qa="AdSlot-AdSlotContainer" class="css-0 e1flwkbl2"></div></div></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">Over the past two weeks, North Korea has revised its constitution to designate Seoul as a “top enemy”, blown up inter-Korean roads on its side of the border and threatened to attack the South over alleged drone incursions.</p><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">Signalling China’s growing concerns, Beijing issued two statements this week – warning on Tuesday against “further escalation”, followed by a call on Thursday for a “political settlement” to ease tensions on the peninsula.</p><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military analyst, said Pyongyang’s repeated provocations had left China in an “awkward position”, especially given North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia against South Korea and the United States.</p><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">“China has tried to remain neutral … on many hotspot issues, but it is particularly difficult to do that on North Korea, which is an ally of China’s,” he said. “China, which is preoccupied with economic woes at home, apparently does not want to get into trouble, nor does it want its friends to get into trouble.”</p><div data-qa="InlineAdSlot-Container" class=" css-zl1inp e11v3ui14"><div class="e11v3ui10 e11v3ui13 css-gy323d e1flwkbl0" data-qa="AdSlot-Container"><div data-qa="AdSlot-Label" class="css-1t8iakn e1flwkbl3">Advertisement</div><div data-qa="AdSlot-AdSlotContainer" class="css-0 e1flwkbl2"></div></div></div><div class="js-reading-20-percent-completion-tracker css-19icq8a ekyy9du0" data-qa="useTrackViewedPercentageRender-trackViewedPercentageRenders-TrackPercentageBlock"></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">Relations between the two Koreas started their downward slide in January, deteriorating rapidly after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the decades-old goal of reunification was no longer possible and Seoul was now his regime’s “principal enemy”.</p></section></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-PaywallContainer" class="css-1kfpym9 ea45u6l1"><div class="er6t7fe19 piano-metering__paywall-container css-1e938sv e1x97qwg1" data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-Container"><div data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-LoadingContainer" class="css-hu4lls e1x97qwg2"><div class="css-1px2vm1 e1hb2u5e0" data-qa="Loading-CenteredContainer"><img aria-label="loading" data-qa="BaseImage-handleRenderImage-StyledImage" loading="eager" src="https://assets-v2.i-scmp.com/production/_next/static/media/wheel-on-gray.af4a55f9.gif" class="css-o105sx e445x7d0"/></div></div><div class="article-view__piano-metering css-16o2qwc e1x97qwg0" data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-Wrapper"></div></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-AuthorDetail" class="css-17kn4z6 ea45u6l7"></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-BottomCarousel" class="css-1ltecib ea45u6l8"></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-SeriesInline" 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entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleMoreStoriesArticle on Article {\n moreOnThisArticles {\n entityId\n ...articleMoreStoriesItemArticle\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleMoreStoriesItemArticle on Article {\n ...entityLink\n headline\n socialHeadline\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n url\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articlePaginationCheckerArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment articlePaginationNavigationHistoryArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...hooksTrackCurrentItemBase_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment articlePaywallCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n}\n\nfragment articlePaywallContainerArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment articlePrintArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment articlePrintHeadlineMessageArticle on Article {\n printHeadline\n}\n\nfragment articleReactionArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sections {\n value {\n name\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleReadingTimeContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n readingTime\n}\n\nfragment articleRecommendationArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n entityId\n moreOnThisArticles {\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n entityId\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleRelatedTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleRenderArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleActionWidgetArticle\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticleContent\n ...articleAuthorBlockArticle\n ...articleAuthorDetailsContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...articleBeforeYouGoWidget\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleCorrectionsWidgetArticle\n ...articleDateContent\n ...articleFurtherReadingWidgetArticle\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...articleLeadingArticle\n ...articleMoreOnThisListArticle\n ...articlePaywallContainerArticle\n ...articlePrintHeadlineMessageArticle\n ...articleReactionArticle\n ...articleReadingTimeContent\n ...articleRelatedTopicsContent\n ...articleSectionsContent\n ...articleSeriesArticle\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n ...articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...articleTopicContent\n ...articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle\n ...articleTopicsContent\n ...articleTopicWidgetArticle\n ...articleVocabBoxArticle\n ...authorAvatarsArticle\n ...authorNamesArticle\n ...contentActionBarContent\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentLiveTagContent\n ...contentReadMoreButtonContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n ...contentSubHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...genericArticleContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksPostiesArticleArticle_3o8td4\n ...infographicArticleArticle\n ...liveArticleArticle\n ...morningStudioArticleContent\n ...newsletterArticleArticle\n ...pianoIntegrationArticle\n ...plusColumnsArticleContent\n ...plusGenericArticleContent\n ...postMagazineArticleContent\n ...seriesArticleArticle\n ...styleArticleContent\n}\n\nfragment articleSchemaContent_mN6kk on Query {\n article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n authorLocations\n contentLock\n createdDate\n headline\n publishedDate\n socialHeadline\n sponsorType\n updatedDate\n urlAlias\n authors {\n location\n name\n types\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n text\n }\n corrections {\n correction {\n text\n }\n timestamp\n }\n images {\n isSlideshow\n height\n width\n url\n }\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n ...liveBlogPostingLiveArticles_2w8PNF\n}\n\nfragment articleSectionsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n sections {\n value {\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...hooksArticleSeoArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n entityId\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n summary {\n text\n }\n subHeadline {\n text\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n text\n }\n keywords\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesArticle on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ...inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle\n ...carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesCarouselContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ... on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT\n}\n\nfragment articleShareWidgetArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSponsorContent on Article {\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n description {\n json\n }\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleTitleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle on Article {\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n disableFollow\n entityId\n name\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n ...entityLink\n ...followButtonBase\n name\n disableFollow\n contents(first: 4, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {\n edges {\n node {\n __typename\n entityId\n ...articleWidgetContent\n id\n }\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...headerContentBookmarkArticle\n ...headerContentCommentTrigger\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersUseSharingUrl\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle\n ...hooksContentInterestArticle\n ...hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle\n ...hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle\n ...onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n types\n image(filter: {type: AUTHOR_IMAGE}) {\n style(filter: {style: \"300x300\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorBioAuthor on Author {\n bio\n}\n\nfragment authorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...styleAuthorCardAuthor\n ...defaultAuthorCardAuthor\n ...plusAuthorCardAuthor\n}\n\nfragment authorNameAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n name\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment authorNamesArticle on Article {\n authorLocations\n authors {\n entityId\n location\n ...authorNameAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorRoleAuthor on Author {\n role {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorSocialLinksAuthor on Author {\n socialLinks {\n class\n title\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment beforeYouGoActionWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle on Article {\n entityId\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleSeriesCarouselContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentActionBarContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n createdDate\n updatedDate\n publishedDate\n ...articleCommentArticle\n ...helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle\n ...helpersGetContentTypeNameContent\n ... on Article {\n hasVideoContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentBodyContent_3o8td4 on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_4isNar on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n landscape250x99: style(filter: {style: \"landscape_250_99\"}) {\n url\n }\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size80x80: style(filter: {style: \"80x80\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverVideoContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n socialHeadline\n ...contentHeadlineTagContent\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...itemLiveArticleContentArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveTagContent on Article {\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n relatedLinks\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment contentReadMoreButtonContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...appButtonContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...blockquoteQuoteContent\n ...imageContent\n ...inlineWidgetContent\n ...photoGalleryWidgetContent\n ...scmpYoutubeContent\n}\n\nfragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n subHeadline {\n json\n }\n summary {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSummaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n summary {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentUpdatedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n}\n\nfragment copyLinkArticle20CopyLinkContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent\n}\n\nfragment defaultAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorRoleAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n ...followButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment entityFollowButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n entityId\n name\n }\n ... on Author {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n ... on Topic {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n}\n\nfragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n entityId\n entityUuid\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n application {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n parentSection\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...helpersApplicationBase\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n entityId\n factSheets {\n url\n name\n }\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment followButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...articleRelatedTopicsContent\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle\n ...hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle\n ...toolTipArticleSpeechWidgetToolTipArticle\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4 on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n additionalInfoBoxes {\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticle\n }\n ...genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle\n ...blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment globalCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n}\n\nfragment headerContentBookmarkArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment headerContentCommentTrigger on Article {\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n}\n\nfragment headerMorningStudioArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...subheaderMorningStudioSubheaderContent\n headline\n coverDesktop: image(filter: {type: COVER}) {\n url\n }\n coverMobile: image(filter: {type: COVER_MOBILE}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment headerNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n headline\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersSectionContent\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeNameArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetContentTypeNameContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeNameArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArchiveWallArticle on Article {\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsVelocityWallArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {\n entityId\n name\n alternativeName\n description {\n text\n }\n summary {\n text\n }\n homepageDescription {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {\n authors {\n types\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseSharingUrl on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n entityId\n sponsorType\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n topics {\n sponsor {\n entityId\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n generic_og: style(filter: {style: \"og_image_scmp_generic\"}) {\n url\n }\n styles(filter: {styles: [\"og_image_posties_article\", \"og_postmag\", \"og_image_scmp_analysis\", \"og_image_scmp_explainer\", \"og_image_scmp_editorial\", \"og_image_scmp_fact_check\", \"og_image_scmp_debate\", \"og_image_scmp_live\", \"og_image_scmp_obituary\", \"og_image_scmp_opinion\", \"og_image_scmp_review\", \"og_image_scmp_series\", \"og_image_scmp_generic\"]}) {\n url\n style\n }\n type\n }\n disableOffPlatformContent\n published\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n entityId\n description {\n text\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n }\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle\n ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle\n ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle\n flag\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentInterestArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sentiment\n urlAlias\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_4isNar\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ...contentUpdatedDateContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n 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correction {\n text\n }\n timestamp\n }\n images {\n isSlideshow\n height\n width\n url\n }\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n ...liveBlogPostingLiveArticles_2w8PNF\n}\n\nfragment articleSectionsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n sections {\n value {\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...hooksArticleSeoArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n entityId\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n summary {\n text\n }\n subHeadline {\n text\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n text\n }\n keywords\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesArticle on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ...inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle\n ...carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesCarouselContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ... on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT\n}\n\nfragment articleShareWidgetArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSponsorContent on Article {\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n description {\n json\n }\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleTitleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle on Article {\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n disableFollow\n entityId\n name\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n ...entityLink\n ...followButtonBase\n name\n disableFollow\n contents(first: 4, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {\n edges {\n node {\n __typename\n entityId\n ...articleWidgetContent\n id\n }\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...headerContentBookmarkArticle\n ...headerContentCommentTrigger\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersUseSharingUrl\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle\n ...hooksContentInterestArticle\n ...hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle\n ...hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle\n ...onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n types\n image(filter: {type: AUTHOR_IMAGE}) {\n style(filter: {style: \"300x300\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorBioAuthor on Author {\n bio\n}\n\nfragment authorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...styleAuthorCardAuthor\n ...defaultAuthorCardAuthor\n ...plusAuthorCardAuthor\n}\n\nfragment authorNameAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n name\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment authorNamesArticle on Article {\n authorLocations\n authors {\n entityId\n location\n ...authorNameAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorRoleAuthor on Author {\n role {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorSocialLinksAuthor on Author {\n socialLinks {\n class\n title\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment beforeYouGoActionWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle on Article {\n entityId\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleSeriesCarouselContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentActionBarContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n createdDate\n updatedDate\n publishedDate\n ...articleCommentArticle\n ...helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle\n ...helpersGetContentTypeNameContent\n ... on Article {\n hasVideoContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentBodyContent_3o8td4 on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_4isNar on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n landscape250x99: style(filter: {style: \"landscape_250_99\"}) {\n url\n }\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size80x80: style(filter: {style: \"80x80\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverVideoContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n socialHeadline\n ...contentHeadlineTagContent\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...itemLiveArticleContentArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveTagContent on Article {\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n relatedLinks\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment contentReadMoreButtonContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...appButtonContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...blockquoteQuoteContent\n ...imageContent\n ...inlineWidgetContent\n ...photoGalleryWidgetContent\n ...scmpYoutubeContent\n}\n\nfragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n subHeadline {\n json\n }\n summary {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSummaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n summary {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentUpdatedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n}\n\nfragment copyLinkArticle20CopyLinkContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent\n}\n\nfragment defaultAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorRoleAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n ...followButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment entityFollowButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n entityId\n name\n }\n ... on Author {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n ... on Topic {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n}\n\nfragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n entityId\n entityUuid\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n application {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n parentSection\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...helpersApplicationBase\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n entityId\n factSheets {\n url\n name\n }\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment followButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...articleRelatedTopicsContent\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle\n ...hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle\n ...toolTipArticleSpeechWidgetToolTipArticle\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4 on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n additionalInfoBoxes {\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticle\n }\n ...genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle\n ...blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment globalCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n}\n\nfragment headerContentBookmarkArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment headerContentCommentTrigger on Article {\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n}\n\nfragment headerMorningStudioArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...subheaderMorningStudioSubheaderContent\n headline\n coverDesktop: image(filter: {type: COVER}) {\n url\n }\n coverMobile: image(filter: {type: COVER_MOBILE}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment headerNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n headline\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersSectionContent\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeNameArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetContentTypeNameContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeNameArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArchiveWallArticle on Article {\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsVelocityWallArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {\n entityId\n name\n alternativeName\n description {\n text\n }\n summary {\n text\n }\n homepageDescription {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {\n authors {\n types\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseSharingUrl on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n entityId\n sponsorType\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n topics {\n sponsor {\n entityId\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n generic_og: style(filter: {style: \"og_image_scmp_generic\"}) {\n url\n }\n styles(filter: {styles: [\"og_image_posties_article\", \"og_postmag\", \"og_image_scmp_analysis\", \"og_image_scmp_explainer\", \"og_image_scmp_editorial\", \"og_image_scmp_fact_check\", \"og_image_scmp_debate\", \"og_image_scmp_live\", \"og_image_scmp_obituary\", \"og_image_scmp_opinion\", \"og_image_scmp_review\", \"og_image_scmp_series\", \"og_image_scmp_generic\"]}) {\n url\n style\n }\n type\n }\n disableOffPlatformContent\n published\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n entityId\n description {\n text\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n }\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle\n ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle\n ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle\n flag\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentInterestArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sentiment\n urlAlias\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_4isNar\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ...contentUpdatedDateContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3wWJWe on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentPublishedDateContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n ...videoDurationOverlayVideo\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksPostiesArticleArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksSeriesArticleSectionTagArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackCurrentItemBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ...atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4\n ...atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {\n entityId\n publishedDate\n headline\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n copyrighted\n entityUuid\n socialHeadline\n sponsor\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle on Article {\n entityId\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationsSection on Section {\n ...notificationSection\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment imageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n 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Kim, reportedly incensed by the “provocative” incursions, vowed to “permanently” seal the border with the South.\n\n\nThe destruction of roads and rail links leading to the south followed, prompting a “counter-fire” operation by Seoul.\nThe Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday that the tensions on the peninsula were “not in the common interests of all parties”.\n“The priority now is to avoid anything that may cause the tensions to further rise,” ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, without blaming North Korea.\nAfter Pyongyang confirmed on Thursday that it had revised the constitution to define South Korea as “a hostile state” for the first time, Mao said China “closely follows the developments on the Korean peninsula”.\n“China’s position on the Korean peninsula issue is consistent. We always believe that safeguarding peace and stability … and promoting the political settlement of the issue serves the common interests of all parties,” she said.\n“It is also hoped that all parties will make constructive efforts to this end.”\nAlthough Beijing, as Pyongyang’s main diplomatic and economic backer, has long played the North Korea card in its ties with Washington and Seoul, pundits detect little sign that China is interested in intervening in the escalating situation.\n\n“A crisis on the Korean peninsula is just a matter of time, but great powers are all waiting for the other side to do more to stop it,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Programme and co-director of the East Asia Programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington.\n“Both US and China are having a policy of ‘strategic patience’,” she said, adding that North Korea’s provocative brinkmanship was at least partially designed to seek US recognition of Pyongyang as a de facto nuclear-armed state.\nSun added that North Korea’s posturing was also about displaying aggressiveness towards the South. She noted that South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol “has not been the most cooperative” towards North Korea.\nAccording to Sun, Pyongyang “is bypassing the denuclearisation or unification questions [and] aiming for a legitimate status of nuclear power”. The timing was also calculated, with the US presidential elections less than three weeks away, she said.\n“The US election is coming. North Korea has hope for more engagement if [former president Donald] Trump wins. That is another factor that dictates North Korea must get US attention.”\nTrump has indicated on the campaign trail that he may renew personal ties with Kim and cut the number of US troops stationed in South Korea, while Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris said she would not “cosy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim … who are rooting for Trump”.\nWooyeal Paik, an associate professor and deputy director with the Yonsei Institute of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Pyongyang’s designation of anti-regime propaganda as “subversive threats” highlighted Kim’s insecurity.\n“His recent strategic direction to give up ‘reunification’ and change the ‘two Koreas’ relationship from ‘one ethnic country’ to ‘two adversarial countries’ shows that he’s trying to form a different inter-Korea relationship and ensuing regional security structures to insulate North Korea from the exterior shocks, especially, the American alliance system,” he said.\n\nNi – who also regards Kim’s escalation of hostilities towards South Korea as driven by his fears of subversion of the regime – said the future of the Korean peninsula hinged mainly on how far North Korea wanted to escalate the crisis.\n“[Kim’s] intention seems obvious – by blowing up its own railways and roads before any real conflict – that is, North Korea is unlikely to take an offensive posture in the event of a war,” Ni said.\n“It amounts to an admission that North Korea is at an absolute disadvantage in terms of conventional military strength [vis-a-vis the South].”\nIn Ni’s view, a major conflict is unlikely at least for now, because Kim is “too smart to overreact”, given his years of experience in walking the tightrope between China and the US, as well as between China and Russia.\nNonetheless, the latest escalation had put China in a tight spot, given Beijing’s limited leverage over Pyongyang and the recent North Korea-Russian alignment, he added.\n“China and Russia both have influence on North Korea, but North Korea is very close to Russia, whose influence has been increasing recently.”\nAccording to Ni, China can do little at this stage – partly because of the distrust between Beijing and Pyongyang, but also because of the negative impact on China of the quasi-alliance between North Korea and Russia.\n“And Russia certainly hopes to open up a new battlefield, even dragging China in, but I don’t think Kim is willing to be used by [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” Ni said.\n“China is in an awkward situation. It is certainly well aware of this triangular relationship and will exert its pressure privately and will not sit idle and watch the situation being manipulated by outsiders.”\n","json":[{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"With "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/topics/north-korea","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"621a3811-ffd3-4e85-b51a-8b5aece17db0","data-entity-type":"taxonomy_term","data-entity-bundle":"topics"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"Pyongyang"}]},{"type":"text","data":" drumming up hostilities towards Seoul, a crisis is brewing on the Korean peninsula ahead of the "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/us/us-elections","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"8db846eb-6397-4433-99cd-f4f6851d6d54","data-entity-type":"taxonomy_term","data-entity-bundle":"section"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"US election"}]},{"type":"text","data":" – one that risks putting "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-north-korea-relations","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"a2626021-2a6d-4a3d-aa69-41b38f1977bb","data-entity-type":"taxonomy_term","data-entity-bundle":"topics"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"China"}]},{"type":"text","data":" off-balance and pushing the region to the brink of armed conflict, according to observers."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Over the past two weeks, North Korea has revised its constitution to designate Seoul as a “top enemy”, blown up inter-Korean roads on its side of the border and threatened to attack the South over alleged drone incursions."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Signalling China’s growing concerns, Beijing issued two statements this week – warning on Tuesday against “further escalation”, followed by a call on Thursday for a “political settlement” to ease tensions on the peninsula."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"1"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military analyst, said Pyongyang’s repeated provocations had left China in an “awkward position”, especially given North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia against South Korea and the United States."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“China has tried to remain neutral … on many hotspot issues, but it is particularly difficult to do that on North Korea, which is an ally of China’s,” he said. “China, which is preoccupied with economic woes at home, apparently does not want to get into trouble, nor does it want its friends to get into trouble.”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"2"}},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"20"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Relations between the two Koreas started their downward slide in January, deteriorating rapidly after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the decades-old goal of reunification was no longer possible and Seoul was now his regime’s “principal enemy”."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Last week, North Korea accused the South of using drones to drop anti-regime propaganda leaflets on its capital, Pyongyang. Kim, reportedly incensed by the “provocative” incursions, vowed to “permanently” seal the border with the South."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/uYi8NdicNoc?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"Kim Jong-un’s sister warns South Korea of ‘horrible disaster’ after drone incursion","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/14/clean.jpg?itok=xfn0DpN1","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/14/clean.jpg?itok=-x0XJftR","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/14/clean.jpg","data-duration":"01:53","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3282272","data-youtube-id":"uYi8NdicNoc"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The destruction of roads and rail links leading to the south followed, prompting a “counter-fire” operation by Seoul."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday that the tensions on the peninsula were “not in the common interests of all parties”."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The priority now is to avoid anything that may cause the tensions to further rise,” ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, without blaming North Korea."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"After Pyongyang confirmed on Thursday that it had revised the constitution to define South Korea as “a hostile state” for the first time, Mao said China “closely follows the developments on the Korean peninsula”."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"4"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“China’s position on the Korean peninsula issue is consistent. We always believe that safeguarding peace and stability … and promoting the political settlement of the issue serves the common interests of all parties,” she said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“It is also hoped that all parties will make constructive efforts to this end.”"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Although Beijing, as Pyongyang’s main diplomatic and economic backer, has long played the North Korea card in its ties with Washington and Seoul, pundits detect little sign that China is interested in intervening in the escalating situation."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"image-inline-container"},"children":[{"type":"img","attribs":{"class":"image-inline caption","src":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/10/18/65304bfe-a8c6-449b-ab12-7479e4d83b09_b5bea65a.jpg","data-fid":"15688231","data-resolution":"1","width":"2000","height":"1336","title":"The rising tensions on the Korean peninsula come just weeks ahead of the US presidential election between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Photo composite: Reuters","alt":"The rising tensions on the Korean peninsula come just weeks ahead of the US presidential election between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Photo composite: Reuters"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“A crisis on the Korean peninsula is just a matter of time, but great powers are all waiting for the other side to do more to stop it,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Programme and co-director of the East Asia Programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington."}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"50"}},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"5"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“Both US and China are having a policy of ‘strategic patience’,” she said, adding that North Korea’s provocative brinkmanship was at least partially designed to seek US recognition of Pyongyang as a de facto nuclear-armed state."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Sun added that North Korea’s posturing was also about displaying aggressiveness towards the South. She noted that South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol “has not been the most cooperative” towards North Korea."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"According to Sun, Pyongyang “is bypassing the denuclearisation or unification questions [and] aiming for a legitimate status of nuclear power”. The timing was also calculated, with the US presidential elections less than three weeks away, she said."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6","infiniteAdsAfterNumber":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The US election is coming. North Korea has hope for more engagement if [former president Donald] Trump wins. That is another factor that dictates North Korea must get US attention.”"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Trump has indicated on the campaign trail that he may renew personal ties with Kim and cut the number of US troops stationed in South Korea, while Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris said she would not “cosy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim … who are rooting for Trump”."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Wooyeal Paik, an associate professor and deputy director with the Yonsei Institute of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Pyongyang’s designation of anti-regime propaganda as “subversive threats” highlighted Kim’s insecurity."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“His recent strategic direction to give up ‘reunification’ and change the ‘two Koreas’ relationship from ‘one ethnic country’ to ‘two adversarial countries’ shows that he’s trying to form a different inter-Korea relationship and ensuing regional security structures to insulate North Korea from the exterior shocks, especially, the American alliance system,” he said."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"image-inline-container"},"children":[{"type":"img","attribs":{"class":"image-inline caption","src":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/10/18/8593cc2a-4444-484c-a366-25346f114a16_ecc61fbe.jpg","data-fid":"15688232","data-resolution":"1","width":"2000","height":"1325","title":"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects troops in a photograph released this week by the country’s official news agency. Photo: Reuters","alt":"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects troops in a photograph released this week by the country’s official news agency. Photo: Reuters"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Ni – who also regards Kim’s escalation of hostilities towards South Korea as driven by his fears of subversion of the regime – said the future of the Korean peninsula hinged mainly on how far North Korea wanted to escalate the crisis."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“[Kim’s] intention seems obvious – by blowing up its own railways and roads before any real conflict – that is, North Korea is unlikely to take an offensive posture in the event of a war,” Ni said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“It amounts to an admission that North Korea is at an absolute disadvantage in terms of conventional military strength [vis-a-vis the South].”"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"In Ni’s view, a major conflict is unlikely at least for now, because Kim is “too smart to overreact”, given his years of experience in walking the tightrope between China and the US, as well as between China and Russia."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Nonetheless, the latest escalation had put China in a tight spot, given Beijing’s limited leverage over Pyongyang and the recent North Korea-Russian alignment, he added."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“China and Russia both have influence on North Korea, but North Korea is very close to Russia, whose influence has been increasing recently.”"}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"90"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"According to Ni, China can do little at this stage – partly because of the distrust between Beijing and Pyongyang, but also because of the negative impact on China of the quasi-alliance between North Korea and Russia."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“And Russia certainly hopes to open up a new battlefield, even dragging China in, but I don’t think Kim is willing to be used by [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” Ni said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“China is in an awkward situation. 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Kim, reportedly incensed by the “provocative” incursions, vowed to “permanently” seal the border with the South.\n\n\nThe destruction of roads and rail links leading to the south followed, prompting a “counter-fire” operation by Seoul.\nThe Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday that the tensions on the peninsula were “not in the common interests of all parties”.\n“The priority now is to avoid anything that may cause the tensions to further rise,” ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, without blaming North Korea.\nAfter Pyongyang confirmed on Thursday that it had revised the constitution to define South Korea as “a hostile state” for the first time, Mao said China “closely follows the developments on the Korean peninsula”.\n“China’s position on the Korean peninsula issue is consistent. We always believe that safeguarding peace and stability … and promoting the political settlement of the issue serves the common interests of all parties,” she said.\n“It is also hoped that all parties will make constructive efforts to this end.”\nAlthough Beijing, as Pyongyang’s main diplomatic and economic backer, has long played the North Korea card in its ties with Washington and Seoul, pundits detect little sign that China is interested in intervening in the escalating situation.\n\n“A crisis on the Korean peninsula is just a matter of time, but great powers are all waiting for the other side to do more to stop it,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Programme and co-director of the East Asia Programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington.\n“Both US and China are having a policy of ‘strategic patience’,” she said, adding that North Korea’s provocative brinkmanship was at least partially designed to seek US recognition of Pyongyang as a de facto nuclear-armed state.\nSun added that North Korea’s posturing was also about displaying aggressiveness towards the South. She noted that South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol “has not been the most cooperative” towards North Korea.\nAccording to Sun, Pyongyang “is bypassing the denuclearisation or unification questions [and] aiming for a legitimate status of nuclear power”. The timing was also calculated, with the US presidential elections less than three weeks away, she said.\n“The US election is coming. North Korea has hope for more engagement if [former president Donald] Trump wins. That is another factor that dictates North Korea must get US attention.”\nTrump has indicated on the campaign trail that he may renew personal ties with Kim and cut the number of US troops stationed in South Korea, while Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris said she would not “cosy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim … who are rooting for Trump”.\nWooyeal Paik, an associate professor and deputy director with the Yonsei Institute of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Pyongyang’s designation of anti-regime propaganda as “subversive threats” highlighted Kim’s insecurity.\n“His recent strategic direction to give up ‘reunification’ and change the ‘two Koreas’ relationship from ‘one ethnic country’ to ‘two adversarial countries’ shows that he’s trying to form a different inter-Korea relationship and ensuing regional security structures to insulate North Korea from the exterior shocks, especially, the American alliance system,” he said.\n\nNi – who also regards Kim’s escalation of hostilities towards South Korea as driven by his fears of subversion of the regime – said the future of the Korean peninsula hinged mainly on how far North Korea wanted to escalate the crisis.\n“[Kim’s] intention seems obvious – by blowing up its own railways and roads before any real conflict – that is, North Korea is unlikely to take an offensive posture in the event of a war,” Ni said.\n“It amounts to an admission that North Korea is at an absolute disadvantage in terms of conventional military strength [vis-a-vis the South].”\nIn Ni’s view, a major conflict is unlikely at least for now, because Kim is “too smart to overreact”, given his years of experience in walking the tightrope between China and the US, as well as between China and Russia.\nNonetheless, the latest escalation had put China in a tight spot, given Beijing’s limited leverage over Pyongyang and the recent North Korea-Russian alignment, he added.\n“China and Russia both have influence on North Korea, but North Korea is very close to Russia, whose influence has been increasing recently.”\nAccording to Ni, China can do little at this stage – partly because of the distrust between Beijing and Pyongyang, but also because of the negative impact on China of the quasi-alliance between North Korea and Russia.\n“And Russia certainly hopes to open up a new battlefield, even dragging China in, but I don’t think Kim is willing to be used by [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” Ni said.\n“China is in an awkward situation. It is certainly well aware of this triangular relationship and will exert its pressure privately and will not sit idle and watch the situation being manipulated by outsiders.”\n","json":[{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"With "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/topics/north-korea","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"621a3811-ffd3-4e85-b51a-8b5aece17db0","data-entity-type":"taxonomy_term","data-entity-bundle":"topics"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"Pyongyang"}]},{"type":"text","data":" drumming up hostilities towards Seoul, a crisis is brewing on the Korean peninsula ahead of the "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/us/us-elections","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"8db846eb-6397-4433-99cd-f4f6851d6d54","data-entity-type":"taxonomy_term","data-entity-bundle":"section"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"US election"}]},{"type":"text","data":" – one that risks putting "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-north-korea-relations","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"a2626021-2a6d-4a3d-aa69-41b38f1977bb","data-entity-type":"taxonomy_term","data-entity-bundle":"topics"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"China"}]},{"type":"text","data":" off-balance and pushing the region to the brink of armed conflict, according to observers."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Over the past two weeks, North Korea has revised its constitution to designate Seoul as a “top enemy”, blown up inter-Korean roads on its side of the border and threatened to attack the South over alleged drone incursions."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Signalling China’s growing concerns, Beijing issued two statements this week – warning on Tuesday against “further escalation”, followed by a call on Thursday for a “political settlement” to ease tensions on the peninsula."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"1"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military analyst, said Pyongyang’s repeated provocations had left China in an “awkward position”, especially given North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia against South Korea and the United States."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“China has tried to remain neutral … on many hotspot issues, but it is particularly difficult to do that on North Korea, which is an ally of China’s,” he said. “China, which is preoccupied with economic woes at home, apparently does not want to get into trouble, nor does it want its friends to get into trouble.”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"2"}},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"20"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Relations between the two Koreas started their downward slide in January, deteriorating rapidly after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the decades-old goal of reunification was no longer possible and Seoul was now his regime’s “principal enemy”."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Last week, North Korea accused the South of using drones to drop anti-regime propaganda leaflets on its capital, Pyongyang. Kim, reportedly incensed by the “provocative” incursions, vowed to “permanently” seal the border with the South."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/uYi8NdicNoc?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"Kim Jong-un’s sister warns South Korea of ‘horrible disaster’ after drone incursion","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/14/clean.jpg?itok=xfn0DpN1","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/14/clean.jpg?itok=-x0XJftR","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/14/clean.jpg","data-duration":"01:53","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3282272","data-youtube-id":"uYi8NdicNoc"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The destruction of roads and rail links leading to the south followed, prompting a “counter-fire” operation by Seoul."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday that the tensions on the peninsula were “not in the common interests of all parties”."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The priority now is to avoid anything that may cause the tensions to further rise,” ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, without blaming North Korea."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"After Pyongyang confirmed on Thursday that it had revised the constitution to define South Korea as “a hostile state” for the first time, Mao said China “closely follows the developments on the Korean peninsula”."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"4"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“China’s position on the Korean peninsula issue is consistent. We always believe that safeguarding peace and stability … and promoting the political settlement of the issue serves the common interests of all parties,” she said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“It is also hoped that all parties will make constructive efforts to this end.”"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Although Beijing, as Pyongyang’s main diplomatic and economic backer, has long played the North Korea card in its ties with Washington and Seoul, pundits detect little sign that China is interested in intervening in the escalating situation."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"image-inline-container"},"children":[{"type":"img","attribs":{"class":"image-inline caption","src":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/10/18/65304bfe-a8c6-449b-ab12-7479e4d83b09_b5bea65a.jpg","data-fid":"15688231","data-resolution":"1","width":"2000","height":"1336","title":"The rising tensions on the Korean peninsula come just weeks ahead of the US presidential election between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Photo composite: Reuters","alt":"The rising tensions on the Korean peninsula come just weeks ahead of the US presidential election between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Photo composite: Reuters"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“A crisis on the Korean peninsula is just a matter of time, but great powers are all waiting for the other side to do more to stop it,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Programme and co-director of the East Asia Programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington."}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"50"}},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"5"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“Both US and China are having a policy of ‘strategic patience’,” she said, adding that North Korea’s provocative brinkmanship was at least partially designed to seek US recognition of Pyongyang as a de facto nuclear-armed state."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Sun added that North Korea’s posturing was also about displaying aggressiveness towards the South. She noted that South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol “has not been the most cooperative” towards North Korea."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"According to Sun, Pyongyang “is bypassing the denuclearisation or unification questions [and] aiming for a legitimate status of nuclear power”. The timing was also calculated, with the US presidential elections less than three weeks away, she said."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6","infiniteAdsAfterNumber":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The US election is coming. North Korea has hope for more engagement if [former president Donald] Trump wins. That is another factor that dictates North Korea must get US attention.”"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Trump has indicated on the campaign trail that he may renew personal ties with Kim and cut the number of US troops stationed in South Korea, while Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris said she would not “cosy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim … who are rooting for Trump”."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Wooyeal Paik, an associate professor and deputy director with the Yonsei Institute of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Pyongyang’s designation of anti-regime propaganda as “subversive threats” highlighted Kim’s insecurity."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“His recent strategic direction to give up ‘reunification’ and change the ‘two Koreas’ relationship from ‘one ethnic country’ to ‘two adversarial countries’ shows that he’s trying to form a different inter-Korea relationship and ensuing regional security structures to insulate North Korea from the exterior shocks, especially, the American alliance system,” he said."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"image-inline-container"},"children":[{"type":"img","attribs":{"class":"image-inline caption","src":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/10/18/8593cc2a-4444-484c-a366-25346f114a16_ecc61fbe.jpg","data-fid":"15688232","data-resolution":"1","width":"2000","height":"1325","title":"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects troops in a photograph released this week by the country’s official news agency. Photo: Reuters","alt":"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects troops in a photograph released this week by the country’s official news agency. Photo: Reuters"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Ni – who also regards Kim’s escalation of hostilities towards South Korea as driven by his fears of subversion of the regime – said the future of the Korean peninsula hinged mainly on how far North Korea wanted to escalate the crisis."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“[Kim’s] intention seems obvious – by blowing up its own railways and roads before any real conflict – that is, North Korea is unlikely to take an offensive posture in the event of a war,” Ni said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“It amounts to an admission that North Korea is at an absolute disadvantage in terms of conventional military strength [vis-a-vis the South].”"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"In Ni’s view, a major conflict is unlikely at least for now, because Kim is “too smart to overreact”, given his years of experience in walking the tightrope between China and the US, as well as between China and Russia."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Nonetheless, the latest escalation had put China in a tight spot, given Beijing’s limited leverage over Pyongyang and the recent North Korea-Russian alignment, he added."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“China and Russia both have influence on North Korea, but North Korea is very close to Russia, whose influence has been increasing recently.”"}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"90"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"According to Ni, China can do little at this stage – partly because of the distrust between Beijing and Pyongyang, but also because of the negative impact on China of the quasi-alliance between North Korea and Russia."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“And Russia certainly hopes to open up a new battlefield, even dragging China in, but I don’t think Kim is willing to be used by [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” Ni said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“China is in an awkward situation. 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