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relief</h1></header><section class="_27f9a9872b82701f6ebd"><div class="_2ac50dba7f257adfa774"><figure class="bc4f4a617bff0631c243 _6f6db0aa612a03c039e8" data-pb-type="im"><picture><source media="(min-width: 1180px)" width="140" height="140" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_140%2C$height_140/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5, https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_280%2C$height_280/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5 2x" data-pb-im-config="{"urls":["https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_140%2C$height_140/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5"," https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_280%2C$height_280/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5 2x"],"width":140,"aspectRatio":1,"type":"square1x1"}"/><source media="(min-width: 1020px)" width="100" height="100" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_100%2C$height_100/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5, https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_200%2C$height_200/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5 2x" data-pb-im-config="{"urls":["https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_100%2C$height_100/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5"," https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_200%2C$height_200/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5 2x"],"width":100,"aspectRatio":1,"type":"square1x1"}"/><source media="(min-width: 768px)" width="100" height="100" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_100%2C$height_100/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5, https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_200%2C$height_200/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5 2x" data-pb-im-config="{"urls":["https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_100%2C$height_100/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5"," https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_200%2C$height_200/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5 2x"],"width":100,"aspectRatio":1,"type":"square1x1"}"/><img alt="Cecile Lefort" class="c101ad2e6ff325391dc3" data-testid="Image-image" src="https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_140%2C$height_140/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_100%2C$height_100/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5, https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_200%2C$height_200/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5 2x" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 100px" data-id="5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5" data-pb-im-config="{"urls":["https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_100%2C$height_100/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5"," https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_200%2C$height_200/t_crop_fill%2Cq_auto:best%2Cfl_any_format/5873d8822a4f5f8518a9602f16949333afd850a5 2x"],"width":100,"aspectRatio":1,"type":"square1x1"}" width="100" height="100"/></picture></figure><div class="_3959bc2afca9734c4ac8"><span class="_14ba773353b3ed4f3dd1 _9f5147e4a4645307537b"><span class="ef988498234ab6593894" data-testid="AuthorNames"><strong><a class="_6d886948f96f9997dca8" data-testid="AuthorURL" href="/by/cecile-lefort-p4ywcg">Cecile Lefort</a></strong></span></span><span class="f5bfc724af8f77e11685">Markets reporter</span></div></div><section class="_9378535800c594b7485c"><div class="_4d22830be8e035459d36" data-testid="ArticleTimestamp"><span>Updated </span><time data-testid="ArticleTimestamp-time"><span>Nov 20, 2024 – 10.47am<!-- -->,<!-- --> <span 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Bank’s decision earlier this month to hold the cash rate at 4.35 per cent, a level it has held for the past year, has left financial markets bracing for the possibility that rate cuts will not come until May next year. This would be after the next federal election, which must be held on or before May 17.</p><div class="_398b6c5e39701f15a1a2">Loading...<figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure></div><div></div></div><div class="_2e1de52e69e1d969aea3"><div class="a368146c81ee0410b134"><span class="_1a6f5d6fad2874362309" data-testid="AuthorCard"><span><strong><a class="d1dba0c3091a3c30ebd6" data-testid="AuthorURL" href="/by/cecile-lefort-p4ywcg">Cecile Lefort</a></strong> is a markets reporter based in the Sydney newsroom.</span><span class="ebf04f7a6858148cabbd _449cf37f9ae646047903" data-testid="Author-Social"><span> <!-- -->Email <!-- -->Cecile<!-- --> at <a class="c5a5b7d2f686623f7687" href="mailto:cecile.lefort@afr.com">cecile.lefort@afr.com</a></span></span></span></div></div><div class="a3b28a4f67a674b57863" data-testid="ArticleFooter"><div class="_9e5858bb5e9aa47354b4"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleFooterLoginTooltip" 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This would be after the next federal election, which must be held on or before May 17.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"f0988b3defea22911f2970af1fbae519615a760a\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003E“For the government to not announce cost-of-relief measures ahead of a federal election would be a complete surprise,” said Prashant Newnaha, a macro strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESince Labor won the last election in 2022, the government has delivered generous relief measures, including \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"b344f0f0576b9e2be4159e2701693467fcbf43cd\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E, rent assistance, \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"b40886883a4847ff0bf10cbedec0041d092343f0\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E and tax cuts. Yet Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may be tempted to go further amid growing criticism over soaring consumer prices.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThose same cost-of-living pressures played a significant role in the US presidential election that returned Donald Trump to the White House.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ELuke McMillan, head of research at Ophir Asset Management, said Australian voters would receive a “gift” for re-electing the government. “It has already flagged student debt relief, and we expect another round of electricity and rental rebates to be given,” he said.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at Challenger, the test for the government will be to do something that “isn’t seen to be stoking inflation”.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIFM Investors chief economist Alex Joiner said Treasurer Jim Chalmers would probably extend the electricity bill subsidy partly because he wanted to be seen supporting household budgets but also because energy prices had increased.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E“There’s that desire to push the rebound in headline inflation out in order to not be faced with the prospect of electricity prices going back up again if subsidies were to roll off,” he added.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe government estimated early this year that the energy bill relief – equivalent to an annual $300 rebate for every household – would reduce headline inflation by about half a percentage point for the fiscal year ending June 2025.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIndeed, the annual pace of headline inflation slowed to 2.8 per cent in the September quarter, from 3.8 per cent in the previous three-month period. But core inflation, the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure, came in at 3.5 per cent, still well outside the central bank’s 2 per cent to 3 per cent target.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E“Any stimulus is going to add to aggregate demand,” warned Dr Kearns. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock stressed earlier this month that the level of demand was still higher than the level of supply.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"56ab98e403070cebab45067c53395e722abddff3\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003ERates on hold for longer\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EMinutes of its November 4-5 board meeting, \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"13180ba5083f584c546d807a7b67bbb16cd64c83\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E, showed the RBA signalled it was highly unlikely to cut the cash rate in either February or April, short of an unexpected downturn in employment.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E“Anything that’s stimulating spending will make the Reserve Bank’s job harder and slow the reduction in interest rates,” warned Dr Kearns, a former RBA executive. He expects the first rate cut in April or May next year.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETD’s Mr Newnaha agreed that more cost-of-living measures would probably force the RBA to be on hold for longer. He does not see any rate relief until August next year because the central bank would probably prefer to wait for the election outcome for more clarity on future spending.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EDr Kearns, however, said the election was irrelevant to the monetary settings because the RBA was an independent bank with a good track record.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E“The reality is they will cop political heat either way, but the job of the Reserve Bank is to ignore that,” he said.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EPendal’s head of government bond strategies, Tim Hext, was not so sure. He argued that while the RBA did not get influenced “explicitly” by politics, it was also aware of Dr Chalmers’ expectations.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E“This election will be a cost-of-living election, and Labor would be desperate to see some mortgage relief,” he said. “It doesn’t mean they have to cut rates, but if there is a window early next year, they’re more likely to take it than not.”\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe fund manager is sticking with his February 2025 rate cut call because inflation would have slowed further and the US Federal Reserve would have eased again.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOphir’s Mr McMillan also expects a February move, saying the current price war between Australian supermarket giants will push inflation lower, and the central bank’s hurdle to ease is lower than the markets think.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"327af79188937584882bcc23be8112de600fbae2\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder 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