Mysteel：制造业景气指数与产成品库存背离分析-我的钢铁网

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<p><strong>1、制造业景气指数连续三个月位于荣枯线以上</strong></p> <p>12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比11月下降0.2个百分点，制造业继续保持扩张。这是我国制造业PMI连续三个月保持在临界点50%以上。在分类指数方面，在构成制造业PMI的五个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><img src="https://img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/07/3b6a6aa6c6fa4f78b0f225ea80171905.png" width="600" height="268" /></strong></p> <p><strong>2、企业原料补库动力仍较弱</strong></p> <p>2024年9-12月，制造业采购经理指数生产指数连续四个月位于荣枯线以上。新订单指数10-12月连续三个月位于荣枯线以上，然而原材料库存指数始终位于荣枯线以下。</p> <p>工业产成品库存同比增速自8月以来持续下降，截止到2024年11月，工业产成品库存同比增速为3.3%，较8月下降1.8个百分点。工业行业库存周期呈现连续三个月“主动去库存”。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/07/954c50f0979c4e30a2fbb70468f37668.png" width="600" height="224" /></p> <p><strong>二、制造业景气指数与产成品库存背离原因分析</strong></p> <p>一般来说，库存周期分为四个阶段，并循环往复，分别对应美林时钟的繁荣、衰退、萧条、复苏。根据库存周期理论，主动去库存、被动补库存往往对应需求下滑。2024年Q3-Q4,产成品库存表现与制造业景气上行表现明显“背离”。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><img src="https://img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/07/3c718cb1c9394a2995b21028298ae072.png" width="600" height="323" /></strong></p> <p><strong>两者背离原因从企业营业收入和利润情况可见端倪。</strong>1至11月份，全国规模以上工业企业累计营业收入同比增长1.8%，增速较年初下降2.7个百分点。1-11月份，规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66674.8亿元，同比下降4.7%，较年初下降14.9个百分点。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><img src="https://img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/07/3e0fc4eaacd940bca716ff4ca844fcd6.png" width="600" height="228" /></strong></p> <p><strong>2024年工业企业营收同比增长主要来自于量的贡献。</strong>2024年11月，PPI同比增速为-2.5%，2024年以来，我国PPI指数持续负增长态势，连续26个月负增长。虽需求有所改善，但工业品价格低迷，导致企业利润承压。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/07/cf4752ff542549c697496e6491f374b2.png" width="600" height="265" /></p> <p>就利润情况而言，主要行业利润情况如下：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>冶炼和压延加工业利润同比增长20.2%，电力、热力生产和供应业增长13.5%，纺织业增长4.6%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长2.9%，农副食品加工业增长0.5%，通用设备制造业下降0.1%，专用设备制造业下降0.9%，电气机械和器材制造业下降3.1%，石油和天然气开采业下降4.4%，汽车制造业下降7.3%，化学原料和化学制品制造业下降9.3%，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>开采和洗选业下降22.4%，非金属矿物制品业下降48.2%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业下降83.7%，石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业同比由盈转亏。少数行业盈利情况尚可，但大多数行业盈利情况较差。</p> <p><strong>制造业看似产需旺盛，但企业实际利润并未得到改善。</strong>原因在于，工业企业产能过剩，不得不陷入内卷，不得不以价换量，导致利润低迷，企业投资动能低。2023年，国家统计局公布的工业产能利用率为75.1%，低于76%-80%的合意区间。中国制造业面临结构性产能过剩。其中，非金属矿物制品，化工行业产能利用不足。医药、食品制造、纺织服装、家具制造、纺织业、农副产品加工等行业也都存在不同程度的产能利用率较低。</p> <p><strong>综上所述，制造业供需景气度上行向企业原料库存增加传导较慢的原因在于以下几个方面。</strong>一、本轮经济复苏内生动能偏弱，需求改善多为政策倾向力度较大的行业，如“两新”涉及产业和新兴产业领域。CPI增速较为低迷，反映居民消费动力不足，仅依靠部分行业需求改善向库存周期上行传导较为缓慢。二、需求虽有所好转，但产能过剩压力下，工业品价格低迷，企业利润情况仍未好转，导致投资补库意愿低。三、近几年来，工业企业利润长期低迷，企业的合意库存水平可能已经较历史周期上有所下调，制约补库水平。</p> <p><strong>三、2025年工业产成品库存或缓慢上行</strong></p> <p><strong>预计2025年工业产成品库存或缓慢上行。</strong>从边际变化来看，11月份，全国规模以上工业企业营业收入同比增长0.5%，上月为下降0.2%，当月营业收入连续两个月回升。2024年11月，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降7.5%，较2024年10月的降幅收窄2.8个百分点。从金额看，2024年11月，工业企业利润总额为7994亿元，较去年同期下降652亿元，同比增量较10月上升89亿元，企业营业收入和利润情况已经出现边际好转。</p> <p><strong>2025年多项政策仍在持续支持内需向好。</strong>财政部1月6日发布通知，对于2024年3月7日前签订贷款合同、设备购置或更新改造服务采购合同，3月7日后发放的符合条件的设备更新贷款，纳入财政贴息政策支持范围；同时，延长设备更新贷款财政贴息政策实施期限。从1月1日起，山东、四川、河北等地新一轮消费品以旧换新、大规模设备更新政策开始实施。2025年，各地补贴的范围更大，补贴兑付的周期缩短。山东全面启动汽车、家电以旧换新十大专项行动，河北省推出以旧换新“一站式”办理平台，江苏推出手机、平板电脑、蓝牙耳机等数码产品补贴专项活动，补贴标准为产品成交价格的15%。</p> <p>随着政策效应持续释放，规模以上工业企业生产加快，带动企业营业收入继续好转，将推动工业产成品库存缓慢上行。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：韩娇 021-26093539 </br> 资讯监督：宋小文 021-26094314 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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