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</div></div><ul><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/mopo/intro/html/index.en.html">Introduction</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Introduction"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/intro/benefits/html/index.en.html">Benefits of price stability</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/intro/role/html/index.en.html">Scope of monetary policy</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/intro/transmission/html/index.en.html">Transmission mechanism</a></li></ul></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/decisions/html/index.en.html">Decisions, statements & accounts</a></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/mopo/strategy/html/index.en.html">Monetary policy strategy</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Monetary policy strategy"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/strategy/strategy-review/html/index.en.html">Strategy review</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/strategy/medium-term-orientation/html/index.en.html">Medium-term 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href="/mopo/coll/standards/marketable/html/index.en.html">Marketable assets</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/standards/nonmarketable/html/index.en.html">Non-marketable assets</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/mopo/coll/assets/html/index.en.html">List of eligible marketable assets</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for List of eligible marketable assets"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/assets/guide/html/index.en.html">User guide</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/mopo/coll/coll/html/index.en.html">Mobilising collateral</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Mobilising collateral"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/coll/ccbm/html/index.en.html">CCBM</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/coll/eligiblesss/html/index.en.html">Eligible SSSs</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/coll/ssslinks/html/index.en.html">Eligible links</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/coll/triparty/html/index.en.html">Eligible triparty agents</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/mopo/coll/risk/html/index.en.html">Risk mitigation</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Risk mitigation"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/risk/ecaf/html/index.en.html">ECAF</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/risk/riskcontrol/html/index.en.html">Risk control</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/risk/liquidity/html/index.en.html">Haircut categories</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/risk/valuation/html/index.en.html">Valuation</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/mopo/coll/loanlevel/html/index.en.html">Loan-level requirements</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Loan-level requirements"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/coll/loanlevel/transmission/html/index.en.html">Data templates</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a 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href="/mopo/market-contact-groups/omg/html/index.en.html">ECB Operations managers group (ECB OMG)</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/market-contact-groups/fxcg/html/index.en.html">Foreign exchange (FXCG)</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/mopo/market-contact-groups/iid/html/index.en.html">Institutional Investor Dialogue (IID)</a></li></ul></li></ul></div></li><li class="has-subpages" aria-expanded="false"><a href="/paym/html/index.en.html">Payments & financial stability</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Payments & financial stability"></a><div class="nav-first-level-wrap"><div class="nav-featured-wrap"><div class="nav-featured"><div class="item"> <div class="title">Payments & financial stability</div> <p>Insights into our work on financial stability and payments and market infrastructures</p> <a href="/paym/html/index.en.html">Overview of payments and financial stability</a> <hr> <div class="nav-title">Quick links</div> <ul> <li><a href="/euro/digital_euro/html/index.en.html">Digital euro</a></li> <li><a href="/press/intro/html/index.en.html">Payments news & events</a></li> <li><a href="/paym/target/target-professional-use-documents-links/html/index.en.html">TARGET professional use documents and links</a></li> </ul> </div> <a href="/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/index.en.html" class="item image"> <img src="/paym/financial-stability/html/index/fsr_1000x750.jpg" width="357" height="179" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:cover"> <div class="image-caption">Latest Financial Stability Review</div> <div class="image-date">16 May 2024</div> </a> </div></div><ul><li class="clearfix"><span>Payments</span></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/target/html/index.en.html">TARGET Services</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for TARGET Services"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/coco/html/index.en.html">Shared features</a></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/target/t2/html/index.en.html">T2</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for T2"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/t2/facts/html/index.en.html">Facts and figures</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/t2/governance/html/index.en.html">Governance</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/target/t2s/html/index.en.html">T2S</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for T2S"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/t2s/governance/html/index.en.html">Governance</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/t2s/facts/html/index.en.html">Facts and figures</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/t2s/pricing/html/index.en.html">Pricing</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/target/tips/html/index.en.html">TIPS</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for TIPS"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/tips/crossborder/html/index.en.html">Cross-border payments</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/tips/governance/html/index.en.html">Governance</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/tips/facts/html/index.en.html">Facts and figures</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/tips/onboarding/html/index.en.html">Onboarding</a></li></ul></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/ecms/html/index.en.html">ECMS</a></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/target/target-professional-use-documents-links/html/index.en.html">TARGET professional use documents & links</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for TARGET professional use documents & links"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/target-professional-use-documents-links/coco/html/index.en.html">Shared features documents & links</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/target-professional-use-documents-links/t2/html/index.en.html">T2 documents & links</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/target-professional-use-documents-links/t2s/html/index.en.html">T2S documents & links</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/target-professional-use-documents-links/tips/html/index.en.html">TIPS documents & links</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/target/target-professional-use-documents-links/ecms/html/index.en.html">ECMS documents & links</a></li></ul></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/integration/html/index.en.html">Integration and innovation</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Integration and innovation"></a><ul><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/integration/distributed/html/index.en.html">Distributed ledger technologies</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Distributed ledger technologies"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/integration/distributed/exploratory/html/index.en.html">Exploratory work</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/integration/retail/html/index.en.html">Retail payments</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Retail payments"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/integration/retail/retail_payments_strategy/html/index.en.html">Retail payments strategy</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/integration/retail/ecb/html/index.en.html">ECB as a catalyst</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/integration/retail/sepa/html/index.en.html">SEPA</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/integration/retail/instant_payments/html/index.en.html">Instant payments</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/integration/collateral/html/index.en.html">Collateral management harmonisation</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Collateral management harmonisation"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/integration/collateral/implementation/html/index.en.html">Implementation</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/integration/collateral/faq/html/index.en.html">FAQ</a></li></ul></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/cyber-resilience/html/index.en.html">Cyber resilience</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Cyber resilience"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/cyber-resilience/fmi/html/index.en.html">Financial market infrastructures</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/cyber-resilience/tiber-eu/html/index.en.html">TIBER-EU</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/pol/html/index.en.html">Oversight</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Oversight"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/pol/systems/html/index.en.html">Payment systems</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/pol/target2-securities/html/index.en.html">TARGET2-Securities</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/pol/instr/html/index.en.html">Electronic payments</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/pol/clearing/html/index.en.html">Securities settlement systems and central counterparties</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/pol/critical/html/index.en.html">Critical service providers</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/pol/correspondent-and-custodian-banks/html/index.en.html">Correspondent and custodian banks</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/pol/forum/html/index.en.html">SecuRe Pay forum</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/erms/html/index.en.html">Reserve management services</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Reserve management services"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/erms/aspects/html/index.en.html">Key aspects</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/erms/service/html/index.en.html">Range of services</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/cashprof/html/index.en.html">Cash professionals</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Cash professionals"></a><ul><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/cashprof/cashhand/html/index.en.html">Cash handling</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Cash handling"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/cashprof/cashhand/devices/html/index.en.html">Authentication devices</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/cashprof/cashhand/recycling/html/index.en.html">Recirculation of banknotes</a></li></ul></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/cashprof/cdispec/html/index.en.html">Common detector interface specifications</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/cashprof/accreditation/html/index.en.html">Banknote manufacturer accreditation</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/paym/groups/html/index.en.html">Payment contact groups</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Payment contact groups"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/groups/ami/html/index.en.html">Advisory groups on market infrastructures</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/groups/euro-cyber-board/html/index.en.html">Euro Cyber Resilience Board</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/groups/erpb/html/index.en.html">Euro Retail Payments Board (ERPB)</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/groups/efip/html/index.en.html">European Forum for Innovation in Payments (EFIP)</a></li></ul></li><li class="clearfix"><span>Financial stability</span></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/financial-stability/html/index.en.html">Introduction to financial stability</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/macroprudential-measures/html/index.en.html">Macroprudential Measures</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/paym/financial_stability_contact_groups/html/index.en.html">Financial stability contact groups</a></li></ul></div></li><li class="has-subpages" aria-expanded="false"><a href="/stats/html/index.en.html">Statistics</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Statistics"></a><div class="nav-first-level-wrap"><div class="nav-featured-wrap"><div class="nav-featured"><div class="item"> <div class="title">Statistics</div> <p>Access to all ECB statistics and background information</p> <a href="/stats/html/index.en.html">Overview of ECB statistics</a> <hr> <div class="nav-title">Quick links</div> <ul> <li><a href="https://data.ecb.europa.eu/main-figures">Main figures</a></li> <li><a href="https://data.ecb.europa.eu/">ECB Data Portal</a></li> <li><a href="/press/stats/html/index.en.html">Statistical releases</a></li> </ul> </div> <a href="/press/blog/date/2024/html/ecb.blog20240418~2240ea1850.en.html" class="item image"> <img src="/press/blog/date/2024/html//ecb.blog20240418~2240ea1850/ecb.blog20240418~2240ea1850.jpg" width="357" height="179" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:cover"> <div class="image-caption">THE ECB BLOG - Improved data: how climate change impacts banks</div> <div class="image-date">18 April 2024</div> </a> </div></div><ul><li class="clearfix"><span>Frequently accessed</span></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/euro-exchange-rates/html/index.en.html">Euro exchange rates</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/key-ecb-interest-rates/html/index.en.html">Key ECB interest rates</a></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/stats/euro-short-term-rates/html/index.en.html">Euro short-term rate (€STR)</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Euro short-term rate (€STR)"></a><ul><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/stats/euro-short-term-rates/interest_rate_benchmarks/html/index.en.html">Interest rate benchmarks</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Interest rate benchmarks"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/euro-short-term-rates/interest_rate_benchmarks/WG_euro_risk-free_rates/html/index.en.html">Working group on euro risk-free rates</a></li></ul></li></ul></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/inflation/html/index.en.html">Inflation</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/euro-area-yield-curves/html/index.en.html">Euro area yield curves</a></li><li class="clearfix"><span>All statistics & background</span></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/all-key-statistics/html/index.en.html">All key statistics</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/accessing-our-data/html/index.en.html">All data services</a></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/stats/ecb_statistics/html/index.en.html">Data reporting & standards</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Data reporting & standards"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/ecb_statistics/governance_and_quality_framework/html/index.en.html">Governance and quality framework</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/ecb_statistics/co-operation_and_standards/html/index.en.html">Co-operation and standards</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/ecb_statistics/reporting/html/index.en.html">Banks’ data reporting</a></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/stats/ecb_statistics/anacredit/html/index.en.html">AnaCredit</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for AnaCredit"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/ecb_statistics/anacredit/questions/html/index.en.html">AnaCredit Q&A</a></li></ul></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/ecb_statistics/consultations/html/index.en.html">Public consultations</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/ecb_statistics/dialogue/html/index.en.html">Banking industry dialogue on ESCB statistics and integrated reporting</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/ecb_statistics/sdmx/html/index.en.html">SDMX – statistical data exchange model</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/stats/ecb_statistics/inexda/html/index.en.html">INEXDA - granular data network</a></li></ul></li></ul></div></li><li class="has-subpages" aria-expanded="false"><a href="/euro/html/index.en.html">The euro</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for The euro"></a><div class="nav-first-level-wrap"><div class="nav-featured-wrap"><div class="nav-featured"><div class="item"> <div class="title">The euro</div> <p>All you need to know about our common currency</p> <a href="/euro/html/index.en.html">Overview of the euro</a> <hr> <div class="nav-title">Quick links</div> <ul> <li><a href="/paym/cashprof/html/index.en.html">Cash professionals</a></li> <li><a href="/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/banknotes+coins/html/index.en.html">Banknote and coins statistics</a></li> <li><a href="/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/index.en.html">Euro exchange rates</a></li> </ul> </div> <a href="/stats/ecb_surveys/space/html/ecb.space2024~19d46f0f17.en.html" class="item image"> <img src="/euro/shared/img/cover.png" width="357" height="179" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:cover"> <div class="image-caption">Study on the payment attitudes of consumers in the euro area (SPACE) – 2024</div> <div class="image-date">19 December 2024</div> </a></div></div><ul><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/html/index.en.html">Digital euro</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Digital euro"></a><ul><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/features/html/index.en.html">What it is</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for What it is"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/features/privacy/html/index.en.html">Digital euro and privacy</a></li></ul></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/how-it-works/html/index.en.html">How it works</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/why-we-need-it/html/index.en.html">Why we need it</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/progress/html/index.en.html">Timeline and progress</a></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/timeline/html/index.en.html">In-depth information</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for In-depth information"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/timeline/stakeholder/html/index.en.html">Governance and stakeholder engagement</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/timeline/profuse/html/index.en.html">Technical documents and research</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/timeline/rulebook/html/index.en.html">Scheme rulebook</a></li></ul></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/digital_euro/faqs/html/index.en.html">Frequently asked questions</a></li></ul></li><li class="clearfix"><span>Cash</span></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/euro/cash_strategy/html/index.en.html">The Eurosystem cash strategy</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for The Eurosystem cash strategy"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/cash_strategy/cash_role/html/index.en.html">The role of cash</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/cash_strategy/issuance/html/index.en.html">Issuance and circulation</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/cash_strategy/acceptance-cash/html/index.en.html">Access to and acceptance of cash</a></li><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/cash_strategy/faqs/html/index.en.html">Frequently asked questions</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/euro/banknotes/html/index.en.html">Banknotes</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Banknotes"></a><ul><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/euro/banknotes/future_banknotes/html/index.en.html">Future banknotes</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Future banknotes"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a href="/euro/banknotes/future_banknotes/redesign/html/index.en.html">Redesign process</a></li></ul></li><li class="has-subpages"><a href="/euro/banknotes/current/html/index.en.html">Current banknotes</a><a href="#" class="subpages" title="toggle subpages for Current banknotes"></a><ul><li class="clearfix"><a 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to the website of the European Central Bank: '+location.protocol + '//' + location.host + location.pathname+((document.location.search.search(/\?youtubeID=[a-zA-Z0-9_-]+$/)!=-1&&document.location.search)||''))" title="Share by Email"></a></li> </ul> </div> </aside> <main > <div class="title"> <h1>Alistair Dieppe</h1> </div><div class="profile-box -top-arrow -portrait-img"><div class='upper'> <div data-image='/pub/research/authors/profiles/profile_pics/author_picture_alistair-dieppe.jpg'></div> <div class='content-box'> <h4>International & European Relations</h4> <dl><dt>Division</dt><dd><p>External Developments</p></dd> <dt>Current Position</dt> <dd> <p>Team Lead - Economist</p> </dd><dt>Fields of interest</dt> <dd> <p>International Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Mathematical and Quantitative Methods</p> </dd><dt>Email</dt> <dd> <p><a href='mailto:alistair.dieppe@ecb.europa.eu'>alistair.dieppe@ecb.europa.eu</a></p> </dd> </dl> </div> </div><div class='lower'><div class='tabs-container -white-blue'><input id='t1' name='author-tab-group' type='radio' checked> <label for='t1'><span class='arrow'></span>Biography</label> <div class='tab-content'> <dl><div> <dt>Other current responsibilities </dt><dd><span>2022-</span><p>Senior Team Lead - Economist</p> </dd></div><div> <dt>Education</dt><dd><span>1998</span><p>MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, London School of Economics</p> </dd><dd><span>1994</span><p>BSc in Economics and Mathematics, University of Warwick</p> </dd></div><div> <dt>Professional experience</dt><dd><span>2020-2021</span><p>Team Lead Economist, ECB</p> </dd><dd><span>2018-2020</span><p>Lead Economist, World Bank</p> </dd><dd><span>2007-2018</span><p>Senior / Principal Economist, European Central Bank</p> </dd><dd><span>2005-2007</span><p>Senior Economist, Oxford Economics</p> </dd><dd><span>1998-2005</span><p>Senior Economist, European Central Bank</p> </dd><dd><span>1994-1997</span><p>Economist Cambridge Econometrics</p> </dd></div> </dl> </div><input id='t2' name='author-tab-group' type='radio'> <label for='t2'><span class='arrow'></span>ECB publications</label> <div class='tab-content'><div class="definition-list "><dl><dt isoDate="2025-01-08"><div class="date">8 January 2025</div></dt><dd><div class="category">OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 366</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op366~95975a2e13.en.pdf?411f322bfec0346c871fba8616fd34c6" >The intersection between climate transition policies and geoeconomic fragmentation</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/pierre-francois-weber.en.html" >Pierre-François Weber</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/amandine-afota.en.html" >Amandine Afota</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/lukas-boeckelmann.en.html" >Lukas Boeckelmann</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/annabelle-de-gaye.en.html" >Annabelle De Gaye</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/violaine-faubert.en.html" >Violaine Faubert</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/fabio-grieco.en.html" >Fabio Grieco</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/julien-le-roux.en.html" >Julien Le Roux</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/baptiste-meunier.en.html" >Baptiste Meunier</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/bogdan-munteanu.en.html" >Bogdan Munteanu</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/capucine-nobletz.en.html" >Capucine Nobletz</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/anni-norring.en.html" >Anni Norring</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/thomas-reininger.en.html" >Thomas Reininger</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/ieva-skackauskaite.en.html" >Ieva Skackauskaite</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/marta-suarez-varela.en.html" >Marta Suárez-Varela</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/romain-svartzman.en.html" >Romain Svartzman</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/cecile-valadier.en.html" >Cécile Valadier</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/diana-vlajie.en.html" >Diana Vlajie</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/lucia-wilbert.en.html" >Lucia Wilbert</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/andrea-zaghini.en.html" >Andrea Zaghini</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/maria-grazia-attinasi.en.html" >Maria Grazia Attinasi</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/axel-brueggemann.en.html" >Axel Brüggemann</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op366~95975a2e13.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>Two phenomena are increasingly reshaping the world economy. One is the growing and well-documented importance of climate transition policies that differ across countries. The other is the stark rise of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) concerns. While differences in climate transition policies are not new, they could amplify GEF, which is a new, growing risk. Conceptually, GEF is a policy-driven reversal of global economic integration, guided by strategic considerations such as national security, sovereignty, autonomy, or economic rivalry. It does not include reversals to global economic integration that are driven by autonomous change, such as shifts in technology, demographics or preferences, or policies motivated primarily by prudential or environmental concerns and labour or human rights. GEF propagates via all the channels through which countries engage with each other economically and politically to provide global public goods such as climate change mitigation. The steep rise in trade and investment restrictions points to coming headwinds which could be compounded by uncoordinated climate transition policies. Conversely, GEF could make transition policies more difficult as, together with their prerequisites – such as shared regulatory approaches, knowledge sharing and financial aid to less well-off countries – they hinge on effective cross-border coordination and collaboration. There is a considerable risk that GEF may hinder climate transition policies. The report is structured as follows. The first section sheds light on how climate policies may contribute to GEF. The second section analyses the extent to which GEF could hinder the green transition. The last section discusses gaps and avenues for further analytical and model-based work.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>F52</strong> : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→National Security, Economic Nationalism<br/><strong>F64</strong> : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Environment<br/><strong>H87</strong> : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods<br/><strong>Q54</strong> : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2021-04-09"><div class="date">9 April 2021</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2534</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2534~2383e60ba4.en.pdf?eeffb1db5c1033da86491dbc6c96ce9a" >The identification of dominant macroeconomic drivers: coping with confounding shocks</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/neville-francis.en.html" >Neville Francis</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/gene-kindberg-hanlon.en.html" >Gene Kindberg-Hanlon</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2534~2383e60ba4.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>We address the identification of low-frequency macroeconomic shocks, such as technology, in Structural Vector Autoregressions. Whilst identification issues with long-run restrictions are well documented, we demonstrate that the recent attempt to overcome said issues using the Max-Share approach of Francis et al. (2014) and Barsky and Sims (2011) has its own shortcomings, primarily that they are vulnerable to bias from confounding non-technology shocks, although less so than long-run specifications. We offer a new spectral methodology to improve empirical identification. This new preferred methodology offers equivalent or improved identification in a wide range of data generating processes and when applied to US data. Our findings on the bias generated by confounding shocks also importantly extends to the identification of dominant business-cycle shocks, which will be a combination of shocks rather than a single structural driver. This can result in a mis-characterization of the business cycle anatomy.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C11</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General<br/><strong>C30</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General<br/><strong>E32</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2021-04-09"><div class="date">9 April 2021</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2533</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2533~116a422ae6.en.pdf?cab613ba5c837f51dc4d0b5976fb8ed5" >Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/neville-francis.en.html" >Neville Francis</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/gene-kindberg-hanlon.en.html" >Gene Kindberg-Hanlon</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2533~116a422ae6.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>Frequently, factors other than structural developments in technology and production efficiency drive changes in labor productivity in advanced and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). This paper uses a new method to extract technology shocks that excludes these influences, resulting in lasting improvements in labor productivity. The same methodology in turn is used to identify a stylized example of the effects of a demand shock on productivity. Technology innovations are accompanied by higher and more rapidly increasing rates of investment in EMDEs relative to advanced economies, suggesting that positive technological developments are often capital-embodied in the former economies. Employment falls in both advanced economies and EMDEs following positive technology developments, with the effect smaller but more persistent in EMDEs. Uncorrelated technological developments across economies suggest that global synchronization of labor productivity growth is due to cyclical (demand) influences. Demand drivers of labor productivity are found to have highly persistent effects in EMDEs and some advanced economies. Unlike technology shocks, however, demand shocks influence labor productivity only through the capital deepening channel, particularly in economies with low capacity for counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Overall, non-technological factors accounted for most of the fall in labor productivity growth during 2007-08 and around one-third of the longer-term productivity decline after the global financial crisis.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C30</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General<br/><strong>E32</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles<br/><strong>O40</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2021-02-04"><div class="date">4 February 2021</div></dt><dd><div class="category">ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX</div><div class="title"><a href="/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2021/html/ecb.ebbox202101_01~36347aacda.en.html" >Pandemic-induced constraints and inflation in advanced economies</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alina-bobasu.en.html" >Alina Bobasu</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/luigi-crucil.en.html" >Luigi Crucil</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/marcel-tirpak.en.html" >Marcel Tirpák</a></li></ul></div><div class="main-publication">Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021</div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='arrow' lang="en" href="/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2021/html/ecb.ebbox202101_01~36347aacda.en.html"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This box studies the relative impact on inflation of pandemic-induced demand and supply constraints for key advanced economies outside the euro area by using granular data on consumption expenditures and prices and a structural Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) framework. It finds that during the initial phase of the pandemic, consumer price inflation was driven more by demand-sensitive components and less by supply-sensitive ones. The structural analysis confirms a dominant role for demand shocks in the pandemic. It concludes that the impact of pandemic-related supply constraints on inflation appears limited to date. Yet, more granular analysis is needed to assess the consequences of the pandemic for the drivers of inflation.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C11</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General<br/><strong>E31</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation<br/><strong>E32</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles<br/><strong>O11</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development<br/><strong>O40</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2018-01-26"><div class="date">26 January 2018</div></dt><dd><div class="category">OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 206</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op206.en.pdf?a7d9b6bcdd16ad0952a0382579922e39" >The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/robert-gilhooly.en.html" >Robert Gilhooly</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/jenny-han.en.html" >Jenny Han</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/iikka-korhonen.en.html" >Iikka Korhonen</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/david-lodge.en.html" >David Lodge</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op206.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>China’s rise has been the economic success story of the past four decades but economic growth has been slowing and domestic imbalances have widened. This paper analyses the recent evolution of China’s imbalances, the risks they pose to the economic outlook and the potential impact of a transition to sustainable growth in China on the global and euro area economies. The paper documents China’s heavy reliance on investment and credit as drivers of growth, which has created vulnerabilities in a number of sectors and has been accompanied by increased complexity and leverage in the financial system. China retains some buffers, including policy space, to cushion against adverse shocks for the time being, but additional structural reforms would facilitate a shift of China’s economy onto a sustainable and strong growth trajectory in the medium term. China’s size, trade openness, dominant position as consumer of commodities and growing financial integration mean that its transition to sustainable growth is crucial for the global economic outlook. Simulation analysis using global macro models suggests that the spillovers to the euro area would be limited in the case of a modest slowdown in China’s GDP growth, but significant in the case of a sharp downturn. Sensitivity analysis underscores that the spillovers are dependent on the strengths of the various transmission channels, as well as the policy reaction by central banks and governments.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E21</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth<br/><strong>E22</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity<br/><strong>E27</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/><strong>F10</strong> : International Economics→Trade→General<br/><strong>F47</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/><strong>O11</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development<br/><strong>O53</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Asia including Middle East<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2017-08-07"><div class="date">7 August 2017</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2093</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2093.en.pdf?2b2ebee8aff9751e6f10d0d3946ad1fc" >Why should the world care? Analysis, mechanisms and spillovers of the destination based border adjusted tax</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/ursel-baumann.en.html" >Ursel Baumann</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/allan-gloe-dizioli.en.html" >Allan Gloe Dizioli</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2093.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>Members of the US House of Representatives have proposed a major overhaul of the US corporate tax system, the so-called “destination-based border-adjusted cash-flow tax” (DBCFT). The literature on the economic implications and spillovers of such a DBCFT is scarce. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the mechanics of such a tax, its macroeconomic implications as well as its global spillovers using a fully structural global multi-country model. Our results suggest that the short term macroeconomic impact of the reform would depend primarily on how permanent agents perceive the policy to be. Robustness scenarios show that the magnitude of the short term impact will also depend on the extent to which exporters are reimbursed by their domestic costs; what categories of goods are excluded from the reform; how the government uses the revenues generated by the border adjusted tax; and the pricing system used by exporters. Moreover, global spillovers will depend on how easy it is to replace imported goods by domestic production; whether US trading partners retaliate, and how financial markets in emerging economies react. If there is disequilibrium in relative prices in the short term, global economic activity spillovers could be strongly negative and world trade could decline substantially.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C68</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models<br/><strong>E47</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/><strong>F41</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics<br/><strong>F44</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles<br/><strong>F62</strong> : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts<br/><strong>O41</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2017-04-18"><div class="date">18 April 2017</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2045</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2045.en.pdf?f66d82f9b0501dc2a8f9fb793c862880" >ECB-Global: introducing ECB's global macroeconomic model for spillover analysis</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/georgios-georgiadis.en.html" >Georgios Georgiadis</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/martino-ricci.en.html" >Martino Ricci</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/ine-van-robays.en.html" >Ine Van Robays</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/bjoern-van-roye.en.html" >Björn van Roye</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2045.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>In a highly interlinked global economy a key question for policy makers is how foreign shocks and policies transmit to the domestic economy. We develop a semi-structural multi-country model with rich real and ﬁnancial channels of international shock propagation for the euro area, the US, Japan, the UK, China, oil-exporting economies and the rest of the world: ECB-Global. We illustrate the usefulness of ECB-Global for policy analysis by presenting its predictions regarding the global spillovers from a US monetary policy tightening, a drop in oil prices and a growth slowdown in China. The impulse responses implied by ECB-Global are well in line with those generated by other global models, with international spillovers in ECB-Global generally on the high side given its rich real and ﬁnancial spillover structure.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C51</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation<br/><strong>E30</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General<br/><strong>E50</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2016-07-12"><div class="date">12 July 2016</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1934</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1934.en.pdf?7732bd0e28bcd73711283b7fc0c2d530" >The BEAR toolbox</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/bjoern-van-roye.en.html" >Björn van Roye</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/romain-legrand.en.html" >Romain Legrand</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1934.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>The Bayesian Estimation, Analysis and Regression toolbox (BEAR) is a comprehensive (Bayesian) (Panel) VAR toolbox for forecasting and policy analysis. BEAR is a MATLAB based toolbox which is easy for non-technical users to understand, augment and adapt. In particular, BEAR includes a user-friendly graphical interface which allows the tool to be used by country desk economists. Furthermore, BEAR is well documented, both within the code as well as including a detailed theoretical and user's guide. BEAR includes state-of-the art applications such as sign and magnitude restrictions, conditional forecasts, Bayesian forecast evaluation measures, Bayesian Panel VAR using different prior distributions (for example hierarchical priors), etc. BEAR is specifically developed for transparently supplying a tool for state-of-the-art research and is planned to be further developed to always be at the frontier of economic research.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C11</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General<br/><strong>C30</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General<br/><strong>C87</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Econometric Software<br/><strong>E00</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General<br/><strong>F00</strong> : International Economics→General→General<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2015-08-28"><div class="date">28 August 2015</div></dt><dd><div class="category">OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 165</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop165.en.pdf?917fac583b25016d3d6bc5aa1e071636" >Public debt, population ageing and medium-term growth</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/juha-kilponen.en.html" >Juha Kilponen</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alberto-gonzalez-pandiella.en.html" >Alberto González Pandiella</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/paolo-guarda.en.html" >Paolo Guarda</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/edgar-vogel.en.html" >Edgar Vogel</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/esther-gordo-mora.en.html" >Esther Gordo Mora</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/delphine-irac.en.html" >Delphine Irac</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/dimitris-sideris.en.html" >Dimitris Sideris</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/niki-papadopoulou.en.html" >Niki Papadopoulou</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/dmitry-kulikov.en.html" >Dmitry Kulikov</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/laure-lalouette.en.html" >Laure Lalouette</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/maria-albani.en.html" >Maria Albani</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/owen-grech.en.html" >Owen Grech</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/luca-marchiori.en.html" >Luca Marchiori</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/ricardo-mourinho-felix.en.html" >Ricardo Mourinho Félix</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/lisa-rodano.en.html" >Lisa Rodano</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop165.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This paper analyses the challenges that high public debt and ageing populations pose to medium-term growth. First, macroeconometric model simulations suggest that medium-term growth can benefit from credible fiscal consolidation, partly through reductions in sovereign risk premia. Second, a disaggregated growth accounting exercise suggests that the impact of population ageing on medium-term growth can be mitigated by structural reforms boosting labour force participation. Finally, general equilibrium models suggest that pay-as-you-go public pension systems will require reforms combining lower benefits, a later retirement age and higher social contributions. These findings suggest several policy recommendations: (a) </dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E17</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/><strong>E23</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production<br/><strong>E24</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital<br/><strong>E62</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy<br/><strong>F47</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/><strong>J1</strong> : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2014-12-02"><div class="date">2 December 2014</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1745</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1745.en.pdf?e00eb4953b5735be5cf089c29ee2f34d" >Model of the United States economy with learning MUSEL</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alpo-willman.en.html" >Alpo Willman</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/ursel-baumann.en.html" >Ursel Baumann</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alberto-gonzalez-pandiella.en.html" >Alberto González Pandiella</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1745.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>The model presented here is an estimated medium-scale model for the United States (US) economy developed to forecast and analyse policy issues for the US. The model is specified to track the deviation of the medium- run developments from the balanced-growth-path via an estimated CES production function for the private sector, where factor augmenting technical progress is not constrained to evolve at a constant rate. The short-run deviations from the medium run are estimated based on three optimising private sector decision making units: firms, trade unions and households. We assume agents optimise under limited-information model-consistent learning, where each agent knows the parameters related to his/her optimization problem. Under this learning approach the effect of a monetary policy shock on output and inflation is more muted but persistent than under rational expectations, but both specifications are broadly comparable to other US macro models. Using the learning version, we .find stronger expansionary effects of an increase in government expenditure during periods of downturns compared to booms.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C51</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation<br/><strong>C6</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling<br/><strong>E5</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2014-11-03"><div class="date">3 November 2014</div></dt><dd><div class="category">OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 156</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop156.en.pdf?0bfdacb68fafd12c1ca7646a771e136d" >Potential output from a euro area perspective</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/robert-anderton.en.html" >Robert Anderton</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/pascal-jacquinot.en.html" >Pascal Jacquinot</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/vincent-labhard.en.html" >Vincent Labhard</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/desislava-rusinova.en.html" >Desislava Rusinova</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/ted-aranki.en.html" >Ted Aranki</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/valerie-jarvis.en.html" >Valerie Jarvis</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/stephan-haroutunian.en.html" >Stephan Haroutunian</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/catherine-elding.en.html" >Catherine Elding</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/bela-szoerfi.en.html" >Béla Szörfi</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop156.en.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty that surrounds them. Although it is too early to see the full effects of structural reforms implemented since 2007/08, further structural reforms are needed to support euro area potential growth, especially in view of the negative impact that population ageing is expected to have on potential growth in the future.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E23</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production<br/><strong>E25</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution<br/><strong>E32</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles<br/><strong>E37</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/><strong>O49</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Other<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2013-02-13"><div class="date">13 February 2013</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1512</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1512.pdf?b5d6fdf74549572c8511dbadb17f21b4" lang="fixed" >Learning about wage and price mark-ups in euro area countries</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/elena-angelini.en.html" >Elena Angelini</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/beatrice-pierluigi.en.html" >Beatrice Pierluigi</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1512.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price mark-ups leads to reduced inflationary pressures, increase in competitiveness, and higher output. A rational expectation and a learning version of the ECB</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E24</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital<br/><strong>E27</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/><strong>E30</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General<br/><strong>E37</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/><strong>J30</strong> : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2013-01-08"><div class="date">8 January 2013</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1504</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1504.pdf?aabc6b4d59ae15686d12408db24bb023" lang="fixed" >International R&D Spillovers: Technology Transfer vs. R&D Synergies</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/jan-mutl.en.html" >Jan Mutl</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1504.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>We estimate a model of international technological spillovers that allows for both international and inter-sectoral technology transfer, as well as international and intersectoral synergies in research and development (R&D). Furthermore we allow for a dynamic interaction in explaining total factor productivity (TFP). Relative to the existing literature, our model enables us make a judgment on the relative importance of the channels of international technology transmission. We find that direct technology transfer is positive while there are negative R&D spillovers. However, since R&D is found to positively affect TFP in own sector, the model implies that after accounting for both R&D and TFP spillovers, there is a total positive impact of R&D on TFP in the same sector while the overall impact of R&D on TFP in other sectors and countries is negative. Our results indicate that, by not distinguishing among different channels of transmission, some models previously estimated in the literature may suffer from omitted variable bias.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C21</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions<br/><strong>C23</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models<br/><strong>D24</strong> : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity<br/><strong>O30</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→General<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2012-12-07"><div class="date">7 December 2012</div></dt><dd><div class="category">OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 139</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp139.pdf?ac282d56ad8ac8c95c648bdd37832ab1" lang="fixed" >Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area</a></div><div class="authors"><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the ESCB</div></div><div class="content-box"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/chiara-osbat.en.html" >Chiara Osbat</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alex-jochem.en.html" >Alex Jochem</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/selin-oezyurt.en.html" >Selin Özyurt</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/patry-tello.en.html" >Patry Tello</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/zacharias-bragoudakis.en.html" >Zacharias Bragoudakis</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/brian-micallef.en.html" >Brian Micallef</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/dimitris-sideris.en.html" >Dimitris Sideris</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/niki-papadopoulou.en.html" >Niki Papadopoulou</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/viktors-ajevskis.en.html" >Viktors Ajevskis</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/judit-kreko.en.html" >Judit Krekó</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/guillaume-gaulier.en.html" >Guillaume Gaulier</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/michal-brzoza-brzezina.en.html" >Michał Brzoza-Brzezina</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/stephane-dees.en.html" >Stéphane Dées</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/igor-vetlov.en.html" >Igor Vetlov</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/pascal-jacquinot.en.html" >Pascal Jacquinot</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/massimiliano-pisani.en.html" >Massimiliano Pisani</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/tohmas-karlsson.en.html" >Tohmas Karlsson</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/sandra-gomes.en.html" >Sandra Gomes</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/jean-charles-bricongne.en.html" >Jean-Charles Bricongne</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/milan-vyskrabka.en.html" >Milan Vyskrabka</a></li></ul></div></div></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp139.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>The onset of the financial crisis in 2008 has highlighted the problems of diverging external imbalances within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the role of persistent losses in competitiveness. This paper starts by investigating some of the competitiveness factors which contributed to external imbalances in euro area countries. The evidence suggests significant heterogeneity across countries in both price/cost and non-price competitiveness in the euro area and that there is no one factor, but rather a range of potential factors explaining diverging external imbalances. In particular, while non-price competitiveness effects contributed largely to the trade surplus in some countries, for some southern European countries the trade balance was also driven by price factors. The second part of the paper studies the implications of competitiveness adjustment by means of quantitative tools. Using four different multi-country macro models, improvements in both price/cost aspects (namely wage reduction, productivity improvements or fiscal devaluation) and non-price competitiveness factors (quality improvements) were shown - under certain conditions - to improve external imbalances. The analysis suggests differences in countries' composition of trade could lead to heterogeneity in the potential gains from improvements in competitiveness.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>F10</strong> : International Economics→Trade→General<br/><strong>F41</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics<br/><strong>F43</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies<br/><strong>F47</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/><strong>O52</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2012-06-14"><div class="date">14 June 2012</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1444</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1444.pdf?4655b85592e1b308f206348c7456f7d7" lang="fixed" >The perils of aggregating foreign variables in panel data models</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/michele-ca-zorzi.en.html" >Michele Ca' Zorzi</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alexander-chudik.en.html" >Alexander Chudik</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1444.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>The curse of dimensionality refers to the difficulty of including all relevant variables in empirical applications due to the lack of sufficient degrees of freedom. A common solution to alleviate the problem in the context of open economy models is to aggregate foreign variables by constructing trade-weighted cross-sectional averages. This paper provides two key contributions in the context of static panel data models. The first is to show under what conditions the aggregation of foreign variables (AFV) leads to consistent estimates (as the time dimension T is fixed and the cross section dimension N -> infinite). The second is to design a formal test to assess the admissibility of the AFV restriction and to evaluate the small sample properties of the test by undertaking Monte Carlo experiments. Finally, we illustrate an application in the context of the current account empirical literature where the AFV restriction is rejected.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C12</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Hypothesis Testing: General<br/><strong>C31</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions, Social Interaction Models<br/><strong>C33</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models<br/><strong>F41</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2012-06-01"><div class="date">1 June 2012</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1441</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1441.pdf?ed490601f7bd04e1ec2c5c218639fa9f" lang="fixed" >Thousands of models, one story: current account imbalances in the global economy</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/michele-ca-zorzi.en.html" >Michele Ca' Zorzi</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alexander-chudik.en.html" >Alexander Chudik</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1441.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>The global financial crisis has led to a revival of the empirical literature on current account imbalances. This paper contributes to that literature by investigating the importance of evaluating model and parameter uncertainty prior to reaching any firm conclusion. We explore three alternative econometric strategies: examining all models, selecting a few, and combining them all. Out of thousands (or indeed millions) of models a story emerges. Prior to the financial crisis, current account positions of major economies such as the US, UK, Japan and China were not aligned with fundamentals.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C11</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General<br/><strong>C33</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models<br/><strong>F32</strong> : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements<br/><strong>F34</strong> : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems<br/><strong>F41</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics<br/><strong>O52</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2011-06-22"><div class="date">22 June 2011</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1357</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1357.pdf?d8fbcd3074e6cd80604e633c869e71c5" lang="fixed" >Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/eva-ortega.en.html" >Eva Ortega</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/antonello-dagostino.en.html" >Antonello D'Agostino</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/tohmas-karlsson.en.html" >Tohmas Karlsson</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/konstantins-benkovskis.en.html" >Konstantins Benkovskis</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/michele-caivano.en.html" >Michele Caivano</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/samuel-hurtado.en.html" >Samuel Hurtado</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/timea-varnai.en.html" >Tímea Várnai</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1357.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>A number of academic studies suggest that from the mid-1990s onwards there were changes in the link between inflation and economic activity. However, it remains unclear the extent to which this phenomenon can be ascribed to a change in the structural relationship between inflation and output, as opposed to a change in the size and nature of the shocks hitting the economy. This paper uses a suite of models, such as time-varying VAR techniques, traditional macro models, as well as DSGE models, to investigate, for various European countries as well as for the euro area, the evolution of the link between inflation and resource utilization and its dependence on the nature and size of the shocks. Our analysis suggests that the relationship between inflation and activity has indeed been changing over time, while remaining positive, with the correlation peaking during recessions. Quantitatively, the link between output and inflation is found to be highly dependent on which type of shocks hit the economy: while, in general, all demand shocks to output imply a reaction of inflation of the same sign, the latter will be less pronounced when output fluctuations are driven by supply shocks. In addition, a sharp deceleration of activity, as opposed to a subdued but protracted slowdown, results in a swifter decline in inflation. Inflation exhibits a rather strong persistence, with a negative impact still visible three years after the initial shock.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E31</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation<br/><strong>E32</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles<br/><strong>E37</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2011-04-07"><div class="date">7 April 2011</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1316</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1316.pdf?03bdec077a846f86c0b9823626366d94" lang="fixed" >The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - with boundedly rational learning expectations</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alpo-willman.en.html" >Alpo Willman</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alberto-gonzalez-pandiella.en.html" >Alberto González Pandiella</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/stephen-hall.en.html" >Stephen Hall</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1316.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form model of the economy, the minimal state variable solution (MSV), but they do not know the parameters. However, with medium-sized and large models the closed-form MSV solutions are difficult to attain given the large number of variables that could be included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep parameters of their own optimising frameworks. However, they are not assumed to know the structure nor the parameterisation of the rest of the economy, nor do they know the stochastic processes generating shocks hitting the economy. In addition, agents are assumed to know that the changes (or the growth rates) of fundament variables can be modelled as stationary ARMA (p,q) processes, the exact form of which is not, however, known by agents. This approach avoids the complexities of dealing with a potential vast multitude of alternative mis-specified MSVs. Using a new Multi-country Euro area Model with Boundedly Estimated Rationality we show this approach is compatible with the same limited information assumption that was used in deriving and estimating the behavioural equations of different optimizing agents. We find that there are strong differences in the adjustment path to the shocks to the economy when agent form expectations using our learning approach compared to expectations formed under the assumption of strong rationality. Furthermore, we find that some variation in expansionary fiscal policy in periods of downturns compared to boom periods.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C51</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation<br/><strong>D83</strong> : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief<br/><strong>D84</strong> : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations<br/><strong>E17</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications<br/><strong>E32</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2011-04-07"><div class="date">7 April 2011</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1315</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1315.pdf?fe0b4b79d1adfec22504c2debf91033c" lang="fixed" >The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - simulated with rational expectations</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alpo-willman.en.html" >Alpo Willman</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alberto-gonzalez-pandiella.en.html" >Alberto González Pandiella</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1315.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>The model presented here is a New estimated medium-scale Multi-Country Model (NMCM) which covers the five largest euro area countries and is used for forecasting and scenarios analysis at the European Central Bank. The model has a tight theoretical structure which allows for non-unitary elasticity of substitution, non-constant augmenting technical progress and heterogeneous sectors with differentiated price and income elastiticites of demand across sectors. Furthermore, it has the explicit inclusion of expectations on the basis of three optimising private sector decision making units: i.e. firms, trade unions and households, where output is in the short run demand-determined and monopolistically competing firms set prices and factor demands. Labour is indivisible and monopoly-unions set wages and households make consumption/saving decisions. We assume agents optimise under limited information where each agent knows only the parameters related to his/her optimization problem. Therefore we estimate with GMM, which implicitly assumes limited information boundedly rational expectations. In this paper we provide some simulation results under the assumption of model-consistent rational expectations, we show that there is some heterogeneity across countries and that the reactions of the economies to shocks depends strongly on whether the shocks are pre-announced, announced and credible or unannounced and uncredible.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C51</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation<br/><strong>C6</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling<br/><strong>E5</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2010-01-29"><div class="date">29 January 2010</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1151</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1151.pdf?3aed83e32c70b4551d989efd0679ac74" lang="fixed" >Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/matthieu-bussiere.en.html" >Matthieu Bussière</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/michele-ca-zorzi.en.html" >Michele Ca' Zorzi</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alexander-chudik.en.html" >Alexander Chudik</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1151.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This paper reviews three different concepts of equilibrium exchange rates that are widely used in policy analysis and constitute the backbone of the IMF CGER assessment: the Macroeconomic Balance, the External Sustainability and the reduced form approaches. We raise a number of econometric issues that were previously neglected, proposing some methodological advances to address them. The first issue relates to the presence of model uncertainty in deriving benchmarks for the current account, introducing Bayesian averaging techniques as a solution. The second issue reveals that, if one considers all the sets of plausible identification schemes, the uncertainty surrounding export and import exchange rate elasticities is large even at longer horizons. The third issue discusses the uncertainty associated to the estimation of a reduced form relationship for the real exchange rate, concluding that inference can be improved by panel estimation. The fourth and final issue addresses the presence of strong and weak cross section dependence in panel estimation, suggesting which panel estimators one could use in this case. Overall, the analysis puts forward a number of innovative solutions in dealing with the large uncertainties surrounding equilibrium exchange rate estimates.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>F31</strong> : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange<br/><strong>F32</strong> : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements<br/><strong>F41</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2009-01-28"><div class="date">28 January 2009</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 995</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp995.pdf?a20ceb5bc6e2a6ef393a547855c4484a" lang="fixed" >Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/michele-ca-zorzi.en.html" >Michele Ca' Zorzi</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alexander-chudik.en.html" >Alexander Chudik</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp995.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This paper examines two competing approaches for calculating current account benchmarks, i.e. the external sustainability approach á la Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (LM) versus the structural current accounts literature (SCA) based on panel econometric techniques. The aim is to gauge the medium term adjustment in current account positions that may be required in some central and eastern European countries. As regards the LM approach, we show how the outcome is especially sensitive to (i) the normative choice for external indebtedness and (ii) the decision to exclude the foreign direct investment subcomponent from the NFA aggregate. Turning our search to the SCA approach, we assess its sensitivity to model and parameter uncertainty by setting different selection criteria to choose amongst the over 8000 possible combinations of fundamentals. Furthermore, to test the robustness of our findings we combine all models, attaching to each a probability (Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates). We show both the LM and SCA methodologies are not immune from severe drawbacks and conceptual difficulties. Nevertheless pulling together the results of both approaches point to the countries that may need a current account adjustment over a medium term horizon.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C11</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General<br/><strong>C33</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models<br/><strong>F15</strong> : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration<br/><strong>F32</strong> : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements<br/><strong>F34</strong> : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems<br/><strong>F41</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics<br/><strong>O52</strong> : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2007-06-13"><div class="date">13 June 2007</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 760</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp760.pdf?27094ccc4909ee640cc2b0e45d4ac610" lang="fixed" >Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/thomas-warmedinger.en.html" >Thomas Warmedinger</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp760.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>The paper proposes a modelling approach for euro area goods and services trade volumes and prices on the basis of a break-down of trade data into their intra- and extra-area components. Using the evidence from the newly estimated trade equations, the paper gives new insights into two important issues. The first issue concerns the exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT) to euro area import prices. The second issue relates to substitution effects between intra- and extra-area trade. These issues are further elaborated through simulation analyses using the ECB's area-wide model (AWM). The simulations illustrate the impact of external and domestic shocks to trade in the euro area, in particular on intra- and extra-area trade. The richer dynamics from this disaggregated perspective provide additional insights and elucidate transmission channels of shocks that are not detectable from an aggregate (i.e. total trade) perspective. For instance, one interesting finding is that an appreciation of the euro has a significant downward impact on intra euro area trade.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E31</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation<br/><strong>F17</strong> : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation<br/><strong>C5</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2004-05-18"><div class="date">18 May 2004</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 360</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp360.pdf?ecdf5a53e0e5f4829912b33ab40c73c8" lang="fixed" >Optimal monetary policy rules for the euro area: an analysis using the area wide model</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/keith-kuester.en.html" >Keith Kuester</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/peter-mcadam.en.html" >Peter McAdam</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp360.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>In this paper, we analyze optimal monetary policy rules in a model of the euro area, namely the ECB’s Area Wide Model, which embodies a high degree of intrinsic persistence and a limited role for forward-looking expectations. These features allow us, in large measure, to differentiate our results from many of those prevailing in New Keynesian paradigm models. Speciﬁcally, our exercises involve analyzing the performance of various generalized Taylor rules both from the literature and optimized to the reference model. Given the features of our modelling framework, we ﬁnd that optimal policy smoothing need only be relatively mild. Furthermore, there is substantial gain from implementing forecast-based as opposed to outcome-based policies with the optimal forecast horizon for inﬂation ranging between two and three years. Benchmarking against fully optimal policies, we further highlight that the gain of additional states in the rule may compensate for a reduction of communicability. Thus, the paper contributes to the debate on optimal monetary policy in the euro area, as well as to the conduct of monetary policy in face of substantial persistence in the transmission mechanism.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E4</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates<br/><strong>E5</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isoDate="2002-07-01"><div class="date">1 July 2002</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 160</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp160.pdf?874cb14a554ce56b4ebb77ef202972dd" lang="fixed" >Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/carsten-detken.en.html" >Carsten Detken</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/jerome-henry.en.html" >Jérôme Henry</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/frank-smets.en.html" >Frank Smets</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/alistair-dieppe.en.html" >Alistair Dieppe</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/carmen-marin.en.html" >Carmen Marin</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class='pdf' lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp160.pdf"> <span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class='accordion'><div class="header"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>On the basis of historical data aggregated over the period 1973 to 2000, we estimated four different equilibrium exchange rate models for the synthetic euro. Using the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the possibility to assess the uncertainty surrounding such equilibrium levels, both from a statistical and a theoretical perspective. We employed reduced form co-integration models, a structurla VAR, a Natrex model (estimated in structural form) and the ECB's small-sized euro area wide macro-economic model. In this order the approaches feature an increasing degree of 'structure', in the sense of the constraints based on economic theory embedded in the econometric models that were estimated. The results confirm the high leikelihood for the euro ahving been undervalued in Q4 2000, while stressing the significant empirical and theoretical uncertainty with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate level.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>F31</strong> : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange<br/><strong>F32</strong> : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements<br/></dd></dl></div></div></dd></dl></div></div><input id='t3' name='author-tab-group' type='radio'> <label for='t3'><span class='arrow'></span>External publications</label> <div class='tab-content'><div class="definition-list"><dl><dt><div>2021</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control</div><div class="title"><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188921001512">Technological and non-technological drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Technological and non-technological drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2020</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Policy Research Working Paper Series World Bank</div><div class="title"><a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/9411.html">Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Dieppe, Kilic Celik, Okou</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2020</div></dt><dd><div class="category">World Bank</div><div class="title">Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers and Policies</div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Dieppe, A.</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2018</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Economic Modelling</div><div class="title"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.007">ECB-Global: Introducing the ECB's global macroeconomic model for spillover analysis</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Dieppe, Georgiadis, Ricci, Van Robays, van Roye</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2015</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Journal of Macroeconomics</div><div class="title"><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070414001074">Modelling internal devaluation experiences in Europe: Rational or learning agents?</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Angelini, Dieppe, Pierluigi</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2013</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Economic Modelling</div><div class="title"><a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v33y2013icp808-825.html">Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Dieppe, Pandiella, Hall, Willman</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2012</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Economic Modelling</div><div class="title"><a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v29y2012i6p2597-2614.html">The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Dieppe, González Pandiella, Willman</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2012</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Journal of International Money and Finance</div><div class="title"><a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v31y2012i6p1319-1338.html">Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Ca’ Zorzi, Chudik, Dieppe,</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2012</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Empirical Economics</div><div class="title">And then current accounts (over) adjusted</div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Ca' Zorzi, Chudik, Dieppe</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2006</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Journal of the Japanese and International Economies</div><div class="title">Monetary policy under a liquidity trap: Simulation evidence for the euro area</div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Alistair Dieppe, Peter McAdam</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2005</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Journal of Common Market Studies</div><div class="title">Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: An Analysis Using the Area Wide Model</div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Alistair Dieppe, Keith Küster, Peter McAdam</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2005</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks,</div><div class="title">The area-wide model</div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Dieppe</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2004</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Economic Modelling</div><div class="title">The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?</div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Alistair Dieppe, Jerome Henry</li></ul></div></dd><dt><div>2002</div></dt><dd><div class="category">Australian Economic Papers</div><div class="title">Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches</div><div class="authors"><ul><li>Carsten Detken, Alistair Dieppe, Jerome Henry, Frank Rafael Smets,Carmen Marin</li></ul></div></dd></dl></div></div></div></div></div> </main> </div> <div id="feedback" class="hidden"> <div class="content-box"> <div class="initial"> <div class="title">Are you happy with this page?</div> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-yes">Yes</a> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-no">No</a> </div> <div class="second hidden"> <div class="title">What made you unhappy?</div> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-broken">Page not working</a> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-content">Information not useful</a> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-design">Design not attractive</a> <a class="button -inverted-color" id="feedback-other">Something else</a> </div> <div class="final hidden"> <div class="title">Thank you for letting us know!</div> </div> </div> </div> <footer id="ecb-doc-footer"> <div class="ecb-footerTop"> <div class="sitemap"> <a href="/home/sitedir/html/index.en.html" 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