Mysteel：铜价回调对铜箔市场影响分析-我的钢铁网

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<p>7月以来，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>大幅波动，截止23日，沪<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>主力合约收盘价月间最大差额超5000元/吨，并且近期价格回落明显，市场反应较为强烈。与此同时，终端需求难见起色，上下游加工费博弈持续，铜价的回落进一步加剧<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>电解铜</a>箔市场复杂情绪。</p> <p><strong>一、原料价格回落加工费博弈情绪较浓</strong></p> <p>铜价从5月下旬到达历史高点后持续回落，特别是7月中下旬以来，降幅有所扩大，截止23日，7月沪铜月均价为78716元/吨，环比6月下降840元/吨，同比去年7月下降10222元/吨，降幅为14.92%。特别是23日沪铜主力合约收盘价重新回到75000元/吨以下。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/23/cbfb6554e8dd44e7837dd5cbecce99c1.png" alt="" width="600" height="334.7560975609756" />数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>在经过上半年的先后涨价之后，铜箔加工费已从去年的亏损情况中有所好转，锂电铜箔情况明显优于电子电路铜箔，铜箔企业挺价意愿强烈，而下游电池厂以及覆铜板企业在需求较为一般并且原材料铜箔成本价格依旧高位情况下，想通过以量换价的声音此起彼伏，上下游博弈情绪较为浓厚。然而近几日铜价大幅波动也加剧了该情绪。截止7月23日，6微米锂电铜箔加工费为15000-19000元/吨。35微米标准铜箔加工费为13000-17000元/吨。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/23/d9d28674c8914fc7ad74eeccb33755fa.png" alt="" width="530" height="303" />数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong><strong>二、企业盈利意识加重铜箔实际供应有所下滑</strong></strong></p> <p>去年下半年，铜箔企业亏损较为严重，在全行业均以亏本出售的情况下，铜箔企业难有利润可言。今年以来，企业盈利意识明显加强，主动降低供应来保证价格，使得今年上半年铜箔供应有所下滑。首先新增产线多数未落地实施，实际新增产能有限；其次目前去库仍为企业的首要任务，在需求和价格双低情况下，铜箔厂商减缓供应量防止产能过剩而导致的加工费下滑；再者今年上半年铜均价较去年下半年上涨9.69%，企业生产经营压力加大，并且原材料价格波动幅度明显拉大，在加工费难以大幅增长的情况下，主动降低供应来缓解企业生产成本压力。截止6月底，根据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研，样本电解铜箔企业产量同比下降11.59%。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/23/ff11c652d341428593de806878ef0919.png" alt="" width="600" height="284.2622950819672" />数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong>三、锂电池需求热度尚可电子电路出货情况一般</strong></p> <p>动力电池上半年热度尚可，需求维持高位，而7月以来特别是近期，市场稍有回落，下游电池厂接单量有所减少，开工率并无明显上升，同行内卷严重，整体需求上涨幅度小。头部企业通过绝对多量的需求情况仍可享受较低加工费，而中小电池目前对于降低加工费意愿较为浓厚。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/23/4c6a8d2ddf654bdd8efefd80b895ee91.png" alt="" width="480" height="292" />数据来源：钢联数据、中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟</p> <p>相比于锂电池，电子电路市场情况则较惨淡，覆铜板及pcb企业淡季订单流失严重，国内消费类电子产品需求持续下滑，板厂维持刚需采购，下游压价情绪较浓，企业为了接单降价拼单，竞争压力大，中高端产品出口量变大，低端类产品需求短期内较难上涨。除去手中固有订单，多数板厂还是会选择降价销售，而铜价回落则给为后续覆铜板企业提供了更大的价格操作空间。</p> <p><strong>四、铜价回调铜箔行业不确定因素有所增加</strong></p> <p>目前铜箔行业整体供需两弱，而价格始终是影响供应与需求的最大不确定因素。铜价回调，传导至电解铜箔8月铜均价将有所下降，这也为8月下游采购增添些许积极因素，铜箔企业出货情况将有所改观，同时也会影响近期铜箔出货情况，短期订单也会随着观望情绪有所下滑。但总的来说，实际需求难以改善，铜价下降成本价低，对于长期市场改善始终有限。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：俞灿 13120595901 </br> 资讯监督：高晨曦 021-26093253 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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