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Mysteel周报：家电原材料价格监测（12.30-1.5）-我的钢铁网
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style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>市方面：宏观方面，12月23至24日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开，会议指出2025年要实施更加积极的财政政策，持续用力、更加给力，打好政策“组合拳”，会议定调积极，推动股票、商品价格及债券收益率均有所上涨。基本面方面，上周下游企业订单表现有所回落，年未市场交易逐步转淡，由于市场结算需求，部分企业早早便结束了交易，开始专注于年未清算和回款；与此同时，部分铜加工企业也开始了检修和调整，生产也出现回落。提货端表现与上上周基本一致，不过整体数量环比略有减少。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>市方面：上周沪铝区间小幅震荡，盘踞于2万下方，虽多次小幅反弹，但都被获利盘离场打压，价格重心小幅下移。截至上周五，沪铝主力于 19800 元/吨附近盘整上方压力明显。目前废铝的短缺矛盾在扩大，极大的增加了市场看涨积极性。原铝持续下跌并未使得废<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>格跟跌，反而造成了市场流通性收紧，价格小幅上涨。</p> <p><strong>一、原材料品种价格监测</strong></p> <p>截止2024年12月27日，各原材料当日即时价格以及价格周环比情况如下：</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 255.26px;" src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/30/bb5a6f56cd4f45c79bbff9d79a82190b.png" width="600" height="255" /></p> <p><strong>二、家电行业原材料基本面分析——钢材篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要①——</strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>：全国冷轧板卷价格涨跌互现 </strong><strong>预计本周全国冷轧板卷价格或将窄幅波动为主</strong></p> <p>上周冷轧板卷产量84.50万吨，环比减少0.20万吨。库存方面，当前冷轧钢厂库存37.87万吨，环比减少0.94万吨，社会库存105.67万吨，环比减少3.37万吨。上周全国冷轧板卷市场价格涨跌互现，但市场价格变化幅度有限，全国冷轧板卷价格均价上调3元/吨。目前市场多以刚需为主，再加上贸易商手中库存并不多，对价格有一定的坚挺意愿，价格变动空间有限。基本面看，目前冷轧开工率周环比持平，产能利用率和产量周环比微幅上调，但上周厂库和社会库存同步下跌，本周总库存持续下降，目前库存已处于年内低位水平。市场方面，本周黑色期货盘面震荡运行，市场价格却并未随着期货变动，市场价格较为稳定，从全国均价来看，市场价格变化较小。本周虽周前期黑色期货震荡上行，但市场变化较小，需求仍以刚需为主，少有投机性需求，为保持成交稳定，前期价格并未上涨太多，后期期货回落，再加上近月底，贸易商手中资源偏紧，价格也并未做较大调整，周内价格较为稳定。市场方面，近期市场需求多是刚需为主，贸易商订货积极性不高，贸易山多是维持自己低库存为主，市场资源流通速度一般。综合来看，预计本周全国冷轧板卷价格或将窄幅波动为主。</p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要②——</strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010105-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>涂镀</a>：全国<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌</a>板板卷价格小幅上涨 </strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>彩涂</a>小幅下跌 </strong><strong>预计本周或偏弱运行为主</strong></p> <p>上周镀锌周产量为84.93万吨，环比减少0.08万吨；彩涂周产量为15.38万吨，环比减少0.17万吨。涂镀总产量小幅减少。库存方面，本周镀锌厂库存量为48.63万吨，环比减少1.00万吨，社会库存101.54万吨，环比减少2.60万吨；彩涂厂库存量为13.21万吨，环比减少0.26万吨，社会库存29.09万吨，环比减少0.80万吨。上周期货热卷盘面窄幅震荡运行，国内多数市场稳中偏强运行，其中福州上涨100元/吨，领涨全国。库存方面，据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研当前国内镀锌板卷库存97.61万吨，周环比增加1.63万吨，虽然市场有累库存趋势，但库存处于相对低位，商家多表示压力不大。此外，不少商家将1月资源已经开始预售，为规避后市价格下跌风险；另一方面，部分商家冬储意愿明显较弱，只愿意做正常量的两三成。整体来看，临近年底，市场整体成交处于不温不火状态，商家在经历今年大跌行情后，心态普遍偏谨慎，冬储意愿明显不强，好在当前钢厂镀锌板卷出口相对较好，缓解部分国内需求压力，预计本周国内镀锌板卷价格或将偏弱运行。上周全国彩涂板卷均价小幅下跌，主要是本周民营彩涂钢厂指导价格下调。从钢厂供应端情况看，样本钢厂产能利用率小幅回落，供应端继续减量。马上进入2025年，目前有多家企业有减量计划，部分减量幅度在30%左右。从库存情况看，上周彩涂总库存延续去化，同比处于低位，短期库存压力不大。从需求来看，随着春节临近，市场需求还将继续减少。12月份邯邢热卷价格出台，SPHC 3480元/吨，月环比下跌30元/吨，成本端依旧有支撑。原料方面看，本周原料价格持稳运行，12月邯邢结算价格下跌不大，成本端依旧有支撑。从总库存看，本周彩涂总库存继续减少，当前库存为同期低位，库存压力尚可。进入2025年1月份以后，彩涂板卷产能利用率还将继续下降，供应继续减量。综合来看，当前彩涂成本端依旧有支撑，而需求还将继续减少，预计本周彩涂板卷价格弱势运行为主。</p> <p><strong>三、家电行业原材料基本面分析——有色篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要③——铝：</strong></p> <p><strong> </strong>上周沪铝区间小幅震荡，盘踞于2万下方，虽多次小幅反弹，但都被获利盘离场打压，价格重心小幅下移。截至上周五，沪铝主力于 19800 元/吨附近盘整上方压力明显。目前废铝的短缺矛盾在扩大，极大的增加了市场看涨积极性。原铝持续下跌并未使得废铝价格跟跌，反而造成了市场流通性收紧，价格小幅上涨。</p> <p><strong>四、家电行业动态信息一览</strong></p> <p><strong>1</strong><strong>、政策刺激3C</strong><strong>、家电需求释放，2025</strong><strong>年“以旧换新”乘数效应能否持续？</strong></p> <p>2024年，在消费电子回暖不及预期、家电内销零售市场承压背景下，以旧换新“国补”系列政策的实施有效激发了消费活力。</p> <p>商务部数据显示，截至12月19日，家电以旧换新已带动8大类产品销售量超5210万台。此外，政策加速家电产业绿色升级，年内补贴扩容至3C数码产品亦使多地掀起“购机潮”。</p> <p>市场分析认为，相关补贴有望延续。中信证券预计明年以旧换新的资金额度将提高到3000亿元左右，手机、更多家居家装品类或被纳入范围。</p> <p>今年，手机、电脑等消费电子市场并未迎来预期中的回暖。中国信通院数据显示，2024年1-10月，智能手机出货量2.34亿部，同比增长6.4%，较2021年的2.75亿部仍相距甚远。</p> <p>针对这一情况的原因，CINNOResearch首席分析师周华告诉财联社记者，“一方面因全球经济复苏的步伐不如预期，经济增长放缓直接影响了消费者的购买力和消费信心受到影响，进而影响到消费电子市场的回暖，另一方面因产品缺乏革命性的技术创新使得用户更换新设备的动力不足。”</p> <p><strong>2</strong><strong>、三大白电2025</strong><strong>年1</strong><strong>月排产数据发布</strong></p> <p>据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2025年1月空冰洗排产合计总量共计3222万台，较2024年1月的生产实绩下跌4.3%。</p> <p>分产品来看，1月份家用空调排产1714万台，同比下滑1.5%；冰箱排产768万台，同比下滑6.5%；洗衣机排产740万台，同比下滑8%。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘儒 021-26096617 </br> 资讯监督：胡赛男 021-26093781 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a 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