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class="h pbm"> <h1 class="ph"> [转载]蓝海经济带 </h1> <p class="xg2"> <span class="xg1">已有 1683 次阅读</span> <span class="xg1">2024-8-24 01:11</span> <span class="pipe">|</span><span class="xg1">系统分类:<a href="https://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&do=blog&view=all&uid=2548156&catid=2">海外观察</a></span><span class="pipe">|</span><span class="xg1">文章来源:转载</span> </p> </div> <div id="blog_article" class="d cl" ><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">＂碳中和＂是人类的共同目标，越来越多的国家加入了减排的行列。那些经济发达富裕的消费国已在考虑实施碳关税了，那些出口国到时候将是被迫减排，要不然只能增加出口成本。中国是个负责任的发展中大国，也承诺了＂碳中和＂年限，也就是说，绿色经济的规模将越来越大，于2060年达到＂碳中和＂目标。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">目前中国经济正面临一个重要转折点：A）劳动力密集型产业在向低价劳力国家转移以获得更高的利润，B）政治经济敏感性强的产业链将回归西方发达国家，同时可以解决它们国内失业问题引起的政治矛盾，即全球化引起的贫富差距。现在国际资本在中国投资的目的主要是赚国内那些有消费能力的人的钱。所以中国出口创汇能力面临严峻的考验。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">中国每年要进口<span style="overflow-wrap: break-word;">约</span>五亿吨石油，一亿吨左右的天燃气和三四亿吨的煤，还有一亿多吃的粮食。这些大宗商品是刚需，需要数千亿美元去购买。有人说现在每年需要三千多亿美元进口芯片，所以要聚一国之力，发展自己的芯片制造业。实际上绝大多数进口的芯片转个弯后还是出口的，所以，进口的芯片越多创汇也就多。事实上，能源和粮食安全才是中国人所需要解决的头等大事。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">话说回来，气候危机和＂碳中和＂实际上也会给了解决能源和粮食安全问题提供一个即是机遇也是挑战，那就是怎样最有效益地利用现有的资源和生产能力，不仅能达到＂碳中和＂目标，而且社会财富也能一个数量级的投高，同时能够提升国际贸易竞争水平。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">在本文中，将引入＂蓝海经济带＂的概念，为＂碳中和＂和能源粮食安全的解决提供一个方案。下图显示的是沿大陆海域上空的平均风功率分布。可以说中国有着优质的海上风能资源。同时与之相应的沿海陆地区域是中国经济最发达的地区，中国大部分人口生活工作在那里，同时也是污染最严重的地方。所谓＂蓝海经济带＂就是在沿海距陆地三十至一百公里的海区布设多于一百万座的浮动式综合性多用途平台，其共有的特征是能够承载十兆瓦以上的横向或垂直风力发电机。这样年发电量可以在十万亿度以上，高于目前的年用电量。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/RK4ZSQYBjosObe1hIc5PUrWyUJyvKu687N-gbFpO5yEDWO5HvZ7K6UN0SRG70SMLrcLY7UdEjRcv1QdYCR311TpX7NpygpfcXuic6LYt1llMROfKR4jmYs8BfPidS5QBmmEDHqT4"/></span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">这些浮动平台的排水量在三万吨以上，直径在五十米以上，内部容量至少五万立方米，可以用于各种用途，例如设置多层暧室可以一年四季种植无农药无污染的蔬菜，也可内置循环式养鱼系统养殖三无高价值鱼类。当然也可同时进行养殖种植，在顶层部分进行食品加工，向市场提供高价优质食品，这样那里的打工人成为知识性技术性劳动者，从而获得相应的薪水，远高于农村单纯的农业生产者。这在我以前的博文里已有解绍。在这些浮动平台上也可进行轻工业产品生产，廉价的风电可以使生产成本降低，从而可以提高工人的工资或增强巿场竞争能力。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">这些浮动平台的排水量在三万吨以上，直径在五十米以上，内部容量至少五万立方米，可以用于各种用途，例如设置多层暧室可以一年四季种植无农药无污染的蔬菜，也可内置循环式养鱼系统养殖三无高价值鱼类。当然也可同时进行养殖种植，在顶层部分进行食品加工，向市场提供高价优质食品，这样那里的打工人成为知识性技术性劳动者，从而获得相应的薪水，远高于农村单纯的农业生产者。这在我以前的博文里已有解绍。在这些浮动平台上也可进行轻工业产品生产，廉价的风电可以使生产成本降低，从而可以提高工人的工资或增强巿场竞争能力。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 1.12em; margin-bottom: 1.12em; padding: 0px;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;">北方地区冬天气温寒冷，由于住房封闭不良，每年取暖消耗大量的煤或其它能源，同时也变成区域性大气污染的主要因素，当然碳排放也颇为巨大。我们知道数据中心的运行其消耗的大部电能大部分转化为热能。如果把陆地上的数据中心设置在用于蔬菜种植浮动平台里，就成了热源为暧室供热。在渤海布置数万台这样的海上浮动平台，每年冬季三，五个月让数千万四十岁朝上打工人在那里做些能所力及的工作，同时也可避寒。暧室里的种植工作的劳动强度远低于田野里农活，所以在浮动平台上进行蔬菜种植，不仅在冬季时期保障蔬菜供应，同时也创造了适合上了年纪人的数千万劳动岗位当然，从而充分利用劳动力资源，减轻人口老龄化带来的负担。设置在南海海城的海上浮动平台也可成为老年人冬季避寒设施，那是全社会的额外资源，充分利用起来，让所有的老年人能够幸福地渡过余生。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">不仅在浮动平台里面进行各种工农业生产活动，其周边也可用来挂靠进行各种海鲜养殖，周边海区可被利用海藻种植，海底用于海鲜养殖。可以这样说，农村陆田是二维平面生产，而在海上则是三维立体生产，况且上空还有取之不尽的风能资源可以被利用来提供动力，从而减轻人力劳动强度提高生产效率。中国人不缺富有碳水化合物的食物，而是需要富含维生素，矿物质和优质蛋白的食物来提高身体素质和健康水平，而这些食物可以通过海上养殖种植而得到。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">除了上面提到的冬季老年人避寒，一些浮动平台也可兼作旅游休闲青少年夏令营活动。让儿童体验海上生活，培养阳刚性格，未来才有闯天下的勇气。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">目前工业生产主要分布在东部沿海地区，建立与之相对应的蓝海经济带意味着物质运输的优点，通过海上船舶运输，可以节省大量的基于石油的燃料，一般中小型船舶的载货量少则数百吨多则三五千吨，远多于载重三十，五十吨的大型货车，所以运输成本可以下降许多。因为有众多数量的风力发电机分布在海上，使用电力推进是理所当然的。使用微波技术进行电力无线输送，其理论在一百年前就证明了，目前国际上有人在研发低成本低消耗高功率电力无线输送技术。这类技术适合无人驾驶电动船，即使输送中功率损失百万之三十也是合算的。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">这里我们来估算一下建立蓝海经济带能够节省多少石油天然气。目前中国货运卡车存有量约二千万辆。假设每天消耗汽柴油一百至二百升，或相当于一百公斤的石油。那二千万辆货运卡车一年就要消耗五至六亿吨左右的石油。通过建立蓝色经济带，能够省下二至三亿吨石油的估计应该是合理的，这样的话，每年就可以少进口二至三亿石油，节省一至一点五亿美元的外汇。因为海上大规模的风力发电，也没有必要每年进口亿吨的天燃气，以后家家户户用电做饭取暖，即清洁干净又安全，同时又可以省去约五百亿美元的外汇。随着海上高质量高高营养食品的大规模生产，粮食进口将逐步减少。当然，碳排放也得到大规模的减轻，陆地上的大气污染程度也可减半，国民健康水平得到提高。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">现在媒体在谈论农村振兴问题，关键还是从哪里得到消费投资所需要的资金。一旦蓝海经济带建设完善后，可以造就至少一亿个多至二亿工作岗位。假估低发达地区有五亿人口，如果其中一亿人就业于蓝海经济带，除了基本生活费用，每人每年可以有五万元的剩余，带回自己的家乡。这样的话，每年就有五万亿元用于低发达地区的消费投资，无疑将会促进推动该类地区的经济高速发展。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">中国有＂基建魔王＂之称号，年产约二十亿水泥，十亿吨钢材，每年可以建造上千公里的高铁架，无数的高楼大厦。＂蓝海经济带＂将由约一百万座浮动平台组成，需要约二百亿吨混泥土和二三十亿吨钢材。如果每年少建造些高铁架和高楼大厦，不需十年就能完成蓝海经济带的建设。想一想，一旦蓝海经济带成功运营，现有的高速铁路才会赚钱赢利，原因是乘客流量会大幅增加。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">有人主张投资西部地区，大规模建造水电站来生产绿色电能，然后利用超高压输电将电能输送到全国各地。但有一关键因素值得思考思索。气候变化变得越来越明显，有科学家一直在观察喜玛拉雅山脉的冰川演变状况，测量显示，该地区的冰川由于气候变暖而在缩减，储藏水量越来越低，前不久在印度方还发生冰川崩溃冲跨水电站。一个月前左右长江上游其支流由于少水河床也露了出来，长江中游武汉段也是如此。在未来的三十年里，空气中的暧室气体还会不断地增加，该地方气候变化趋势是值得担忧的。化了十年二十年建造起来的发电站，很有可能达不到预想的效果效益。再则，西部地区是中国的绿色屏障，搞大规模基础设施建设，未免不会产生不良环境后果。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.38;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">随着＂碳中和＂的发展不断深入，石油资源不再是争夺的焦点，未来也许不再需要战争。在美国，其政府在推动新的经济政策，准备投资三万亿美元，建设新的绿色的宏观基础设施，以加强其国际竞争力和影响力。可以预见未来国之间的竞争主要体现在绿色经济方面。</span></p><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; margin-top: 1.12em; margin-bottom: 1.12em; padding: 0px;"><span style="overflow-wrap: break-word; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; 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