WPC's South American Model Discussion

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AS THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE...IT IS EXPECTED TO STEER SHORTER WAVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CHILE. A TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH OF 40S AND NEAR 87-90W IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NORTHWARD SLOWLY TO EXTEND ACROSS PENINSULA VANDEZ INTO CONCEPCION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP IN PATAGONIA ON WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS TO DEVELOP PERIODS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE CENTRLA PATAGONIA OF ARGENTINA WHILE WEST OF THE ANDES ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EXPECT HEAVY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH OF COMODORO RIVADAVIA INTO THE VIEDMA REGION...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PATAGONIA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE PERSISTENT BOLIVIAN HIGH IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT IS FAVORING A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ARGENTINA NEAR 30-32N. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS JET...EXPECT MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COOL TO FAVOR ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH LARGE VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN CENTRLA BRASIL...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN URUGUAY/RIO GRANDE DO SUL AND NORTHEAST ARGENTINA WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ARGENTINA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ALSO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN TROPICAL PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT...EXPECT A CONTINUED ACTIVATION OF CONVECTION AS A POTENT CAVADO DO NORDESTE LOW INTERACTS WITH THE BOLIVIAN HIGH TO THE WEST. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MJO...WILL YIELD TO A CONTINUED ACTIVATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE AMAZON BASIN AND PERIODS WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. OF INTEREST IS A SURFACE FRONT PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST BRASIL ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-125MM ALONG RIO DE JANEIRO AND NORTHERNH SAO PAULO...WHILE IN AREAS INLAND SUCH AS MINAS GERAIS AND GOIAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM AND A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FRONT...FORECAST TO WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BOLIVIA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM RIO DE JANEIRO INTO EASTERN PARA/WESTERN MARANHAO. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE FORECAST TO RELOCATE WESTWARD TO CENTER IN RONDONIA...MATO GROSSO AND SOUTHWEST PARA/AMAZONAS ON THURSDAY. GALVEZ/TINOCO...(WPC) </font></pre> </div> </div>  <div id="noprint_footer"> <TABLE cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0" width="96%" border="0"> <TBODY> <tr> <td colSpan="3"><hr></td> </tr> <tr vAlign="top"> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap" class="gray"> <a href="http://www.noaa.gov"><span class="gray">NOAA/</span></a> <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/"><span class="gray">National Weather Service</span></a><br> <a href="http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/"> <span class="gray">National Centers for Environmental Prediction</span></a><br> Weather Prediction Center<br> 5830 University Research Court<br> College Park, Maryland 20740<br> <a href="/mail_webmaster" target="_new"><span class="gray">Weather Prediction Center Web Team</span></a></td> <td nowrap="nowrap"> <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/disclaimer.php"><span class="gray">Disclaimer</span></a><br> <a href="http://www.weather.gov/credits.php"><span class="gray">Credits</span></a><br> <a href="http://www.weather.gov/glossary/"><span class="gray">Glossary</span></a><br> </td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> <a href="http://www.weather.gov/privacy.php"><span class="gray">Privacy Policy</span></a><br> <a href="http://www.weather.gov/admin.php"><span class="gray">About Us</span></a><br> <a href="http://www.weather.gov/careers.php"><span class="gray">Career Opportunities</span></a><br> </td> </tr> <TR vAlign="top"> <TD class="gray" colSpan="3"> Page last modified: Thursday, 12-May-2022 19:34:45 GMT </TD> </TR> </TBODY> </TABLE> </div>  </TD> </TR> </TBODY> </TABLE> </BODY> </HTML>

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WPC's South American Model Discussion - English Version