ACP - Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions

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name="citation_fulltext_world_readable" content=""> <meta name="citation_publisher" content="Copernicus GmbH"/> <meta name="citation_title" content="Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions"/> <meta name="citation_abstract" content="<p><strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Accurate prediction of future methane abundances following a climate scenario requires understanding the lifetime changes driven by anthropogenic emissions, meteorological factors, and chemistry-climate feedbacks. Uncertainty in any of these influences or the underlying processes implies uncertainty in future abundance and radiative forcing. We simulate methane lifetime in three chemical transport models (CTMs) – UCI CTM, GEOS-Chem, and Oslo CTM3 – over the period 1997–2009 and compare the models' year-to-year variability against constraints from global methyl chloroform observations. Using sensitivity tests, we find that temperature, water vapor, stratospheric ozone column, biomass burning and lightning NO<sub>x</sub> are the dominant sources of interannual changes in methane lifetime in all three models. We also evaluate each model's response to forcings that have impacts on decadal time scales, such as methane feedback, and anthropogenic emissions. In general, these different CTMs show similar sensitivities to the driving variables. We construct a parametric model that reproduces most of the interannual variability of each CTM and use it to predict methane lifetime from 1980 through 2100 following a specified emissions and climate scenario (RCP 8.5). The parametric model propagates uncertainties through all steps and provides a foundation for predicting methane abundances in any climate scenario. Our sensitivity tests also enable a new estimate of the methane global warming potential (GWP), accounting for stratospheric ozone effects, including those mediated by water vapor. We estimate the 100-yr GWP to be 32, which is 25% larger than past assessments.</p>"/> <meta name="citation_publication_date" content="2013/01/11"/> <meta name="citation_online_date" content="2013/01/11"/> <meta name="citation_journal_title" content="Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics"/> <meta name="citation_volume" content="13"/> <meta name="citation_issue" content="1"/> <meta name="citation_issn" content="1680-7316"/> <meta name="citation_doi" content="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013"/> <meta name="citation_firstpage" content="285"/> <meta name="citation_lastpage" content="302"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Holmes, C. D."/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Prather, M. J."/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA"/> <meta name="citation_author_orcid" content="0000-0002-9442-8109"> <meta name="citation_author" content="Søvde, O. A."/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway"/> <meta name="citation_author" content="Myhre, G."/> <meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway"/> <meta name="citation_author_orcid" content="0000-0002-4309-476X"> <meta name="citation_reference" content="Austin, J. and Scinocca, J.: Long-term projections of stratospheric ozone, in SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models, SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD – No. 40, edited by: Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G., and Waugh, D. 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Please try again later.</div> </div> </div> </div> </div>  <div class="modal " id="templateSearchLoadingModal" role="dialog" aria-labelledby="Search results" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-sm modal-dialog-centered"> <div class="modal-content p-3 co_LoadingDotsContainer"> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="text">Searching</div> <div class="dots d-flex justify-content-center"><div class="dot"></div><div class="dot"></div><div class="dot"></div></div></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <style> /*.modal {*/ /* background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.8);*/ /*}*/ .modal-header--sticky { position: sticky; top: 0; background-color: inherit; z-index: 1055; } .grid-container { margin-bottom: 1em; /*padding-left: 0;*/ /*padding-right: 0;*/ } #templateSearchInfo{ display: none; background-color: var(--background-color-primary); margin-top: 1px; z-index: 5; border: 1px solid var(--color-primary); opacity: .8; font-size: .7rem; border-radius: .25rem; } #templateSearchLoadingModal .co_LoadingDotsContainer { z-index: 1000; } #templateSearchLoadingModal .co_LoadingDotsContainer .text { text-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding-bottom: 1rem; } #templateSearchLoadingModal .co_LoadingDotsContainer .dot { background-color: #0072BC; border: 2px solid white; border-radius: 50%; float: left; height: 2rem; width: 2rem; margin: 0 5px; -webkit-transform: scale(0); transform: scale(0); -webkit-animation: animation_dots_breath 1000ms ease infinite 0ms; animation: animation_dots_breath 1000ms ease infinite 0ms; } #templateSearchLoadingModal .co_LoadingDotsContainer .dot:nth-child(2) { -webkit-animation: animation_dots_breath 1000ms ease infinite 300ms; animation: animation_dots_breath 1000ms ease infinite 300ms; } #templateSearchLoadingModal .co_LoadingDotsContainer .dot:nth-child(3) { -webkit-animation: animation_dots_breath 1000ms ease infinite 600ms; animation: animation_dots_breath 1000ms ease infinite 600ms; } #templateSearchResultModal [class*="grid-"] { padding-left: 10px !important; padding-right: 10px !important; } #templateSearchResultTerm { font-weight: bold; } #resultsSearchHeader { display: block !important; } #scrolltopmodal { font-size: 3.0em; margin-top: 0 !important; margin-right: 15px; } @-webkit-keyframes animation_dots_breath { 50% { -webkit-transform: scale(1); transform: scale(1); opacity: 1; } 100% { opacity: 0; } } @keyframes animation_dots_breath { 50% { -webkit-transform: scale(1); transform: scale(1); opacity: 1; } 100% { opacity: 0; } } @media (min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 991px) { #templateSearchResultModal .modal-dialog { max-width: 90%; } } </style> <script> if(document.querySelector('meta[name="global_moBaseURL"]').content == "https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/") FINDER_URL = document.querySelector('meta[name="global_moBaseURL"]').content.replace('meetingorganizer', 'finder-app')+"search/library.php"; else FINDER_URL = document.querySelector('meta[name="global_moBaseURL"]').content.replace('meetingorganizer', 'finder')+"search/library.php"; SEARCH_INPUT = document.getElementById('search_query_solr'); SEARCH_INPUT_MODAL = document.getElementById('search_query_modal'); searchRunning = false; offset = 20; INITIAL_OFFSET = 20; var MutationObserver = window.MutationObserver || window.WebKitMutationObserver || window.MozMutationObserver; const targetNodeSearchModal = document.getElementById("templateSearchResultModal"); const configSearchModal = { attributes: true, childList: true, subtree: true }; // Callback function to execute when mutations are observed const callbackSearchModal = (mutationList, observer) => { for (const mutation of mutationList) { if (mutation.type === "childList") { // console.log("A child node has been added or removed."); picturesGallery(); } else if (mutation.type === "attributes") { // console.log(`The ${mutation.attributeName} attribute was modified.`); } } }; // Create an observer instance linked to the callback function const observer = new MutationObserver(callbackSearchModal); // Start observing the target node for configured mutations observer.observe(targetNodeSearchModal, configSearchModal); function _addEventListener() { document.getElementById('search_query_solr').addEventListener('keypress', (e) => { if (e.key === 'Enter') _runSearch(); }); document.getElementById('start_site_search_solr').addEventListener('click', (e) => { _runSearch(); e.stopPropagation(); e.stopImmediatePropagation(); return false; }); $('#templateSearchResultModal').scroll(function() { if ($(this).scrollTop()) { $('#scrolltopmodal:hidden').stop(true, true).fadeIn().css("display","inline-block"); } else { $('#scrolltopmodal').stop(true, true).fadeOut(); } }); } function scrollModalTop() { $('#templateSearchResultModal').animate({ scrollTop: 0 }, 'slow'); // $('#templateSearchResultModal').scrollTop(0); } function picturesGallery() { $('body').off('click', '.paperlist-avatar img'); $('body').off('click', '#templateSearchResultContainer .paperlist-avatar img'); searchPaperListAvatar = []; searchPaperListAvatarThumb = []; search_pswpElement = document.querySelectorAll('.pswp')[0]; if (typeof search_gallery != "undefined") { search_gallery = null; } $('body').on('click', '#templateSearchResultContainer .paperlist-avatar img', function (e) { if(searchPaperListAvatarThumb.length === 0 && searchPaperListAvatar.length === 0) { $('#templateSearchResultContainer .paperlist-avatar img').each(function () { var webversion = $(this).attr('data-web'); var width = $(this).attr('data-width'); var height = $(this).attr('data-height'); var caption = $(this).attr('data-caption'); var figure = { src: webversion, w: width, h: height, title: caption }; searchPaperListAvatarThumb.push($(this)[0]); searchPaperListAvatar.push(figure); }); } var target = $(this); var index = $('#templateSearchResultContainer .paperlist-avatar img').index(target); var options = { showHideOpacity:false, bgOpacity:0.8, index:index, spacing:0.15, history: false, focus:false, getThumbBoundsFn: function(index) { var thumbnail = searchPaperListAvatarThumb[index]; var pageYScroll = window.pageYOffset || document.documentElement.scrollTop; var rect = thumbnail.getBoundingClientRect(); return {x:rect.left, y:rect.top + pageYScroll, w:rect.width}; } }; search_gallery = new PhotoSwipe( search_pswpElement, PhotoSwipeUI_Default,[searchPaperListAvatar[index]],options); search_gallery.init(); }); } function showError(code, msg) { console.error(code, msg); $("#templateSearchLoadingModal").modal("hide"); switch(code) { case -3: // http request fail case -2: // invalid MO response case 4: // CORS case 1: // project $("#templateSearchErrorModal1").modal({}); break; case -1: // timeout $("#templateSearchErrorModal2").modal({}); break; case 2: // empty term $("#templateSearchErrorModal3").modal({}); break; case 3: // DOS $("#templateSearchErrorModal4").modal({}); break; default: $("#templateSearchErrorModal1").modal({}); break; } } function clearForm() { var myFormElement = document.getElementById("library-filters") var elements = myFormElement.elements; $(".form-check-input").prop('checked', false).change().parent().removeClass('active'); for(i=0; i<elements.length; i++) { field_type = elements[i].type.toLowerCase(); switch(field_type) { case "text": case "password": case "textarea": case "hidden": elements[i].value = ""; break; case "radio": case "checkbox": if (elements[i].checked) { elements[i].checked = false; } break; case "select-one": case "select-multi": elements[i].selectedIndex = -1; break; default: break; } } } function generateShowMoreButton(offset, term) { var code = '<button aria-label="ShowMore" id="showMore" class="btn btn-success float-right mr-2" data-offset="' + offset + '">Show more</button>'; return code; } function hideModal(id) { $("#"+id).modal('hide'); } function showModal(id) { $("#"+id).modal({}); } function prepareForPhotoSwipe() { searchPaperListAvatar = []; searchPaperListAvatarThumb = []; search_pswpElement = document.querySelectorAll('.pswp')[0]; } function _sendAjax(projectID, term) { let httpRequest = new XMLHttpRequest(); if(searchRunning) { console.log("Search running"); return; } if (!httpRequest) { console.error("Giving up :( Cannot create an XMLHTTP instance"); showError(-1); return false; } // httpRequest.timeout = 20000; // time in milliseconds httpRequest.withCredentials = false; httpRequest.ontimeout = (e) => { showError(-1, "result timeout"); searchRunning = false; }; httpRequest.onreadystatechange = function() { if (httpRequest.readyState === XMLHttpRequest.DONE) { searchRunning = false; if (httpRequest.status === 200) { let rs = JSON.parse(httpRequest.responseText); if(rs) { if(rs.isError) { showError(rs.errorCode, rs.errorMessage); } else { let html = rs.resultHTMLs; $("#modal_search_query").val(rs.term); $("#templateSearchResultTerm").html(rs.term); $("#templateSearchResultNr").html(rs.resultsNr); $("#templateRefineSearch").html(rs.filter); if(rs.filter == false) { console.log('filter empty'); $("#refineSearchModal").removeClass('d-block').addClass('d-none'); } if(rs.resultsNr==1) $("#templateSearchResultNrPlural").hide(); else $("#templateSearchResultNrPlural").show(); if(rs.resultsNr==0) { hideModal('templateSearchLoadingModal'); $("#templateSearchResultContainer").html(""); $("#templateSearchResultContainerEmpty").removeClass("d-none"); showModal('templateSearchResultModal'); } else { if((rs.resultsNr - offset)>0) { html = html + generateShowMoreButton(offset, term); } $("#templateSearchResultContainerEmpty").addClass("d-none"); if( offset == INITIAL_OFFSET) { hideModal('templateSearchLoadingModal'); $("#templateSearchResultContainer").html(html); showModal('templateSearchResultModal'); } else { $('#showMore').remove(); startHtml = $("#templateSearchResultContainer").html(); $("#templateSearchResultContainer").html(startHtml + html); } // prepareForPhotoSwipe(); } } } else { showError(-2, "invalid result"); } } else { showError(-3, "There was a problem with the request."); } } }; if(offset == INITIAL_OFFSET) { hideModal('templateSearchResultModal'); showModal('templateSearchLoadingModal'); } httpRequest.open("GET", FINDER_URL+"?project="+projectID+"&term="+encodeURI(term)+((offset>INITIAL_OFFSET)?("&offset="+(offset-INITIAL_OFFSET)) : "")); httpRequest.send(); searchRunning = true; } function _runSearch() { var projectID = document.querySelector('meta[name="global_projectID"]').content; var term = _searchTrimInput(SEARCH_INPUT.value); if(term.length > 0) { _sendAjax(projectID, term); } else { showError(2, 'Empty search term') } } function _searchTrimInput(str) { return str.replace(/^\s+|\s+$/gm, ''); } function run() { _addEventListener(); $('#templateSearchInfoBtn, #modalSearchInfoBtn').popover({ sanitize: false, html: true, content: $("#templateSearchInfo").html(), placement: "bottom", template: '<div class="popover" role="tooltip"><div class="arrow"></div><button class="m-1 float-right btn btn-sm btn-danger" id="templateSearchInfoClose"><i class="fas fa-times-circle"></i></button><h3 class="popover-header"></h3><div class="popover-body"></div></div>', title: "Search tips", }); $(document).click(function (e) { let t = $(e.target); let a = t && t.attr("data-toggle")!=="popover" && t.parent().attr("data-toggle")!=="popover"; let b = t && $(".popover").has(t).length===0; if(a && b) { $('#templateSearchInfoBtn').popover('hide'); $('#modalSearchInfoBtn').popover('hide'); } }); $('#templateSearchInfoBtn').on('shown.bs.popover', function () { $("#templateSearchInfoClose").click(function(e){ $('#templateSearchInfoBtn').popover('hide'); e.stopPropagation(); e.stopImmediatePropagation(); return false; }); }) $('#templateSearchResultModal').on('hidden.bs.modal', function(e) { $('body').off('click', '#templateSearchResultContainer .paperlist-avatar img'); var pswpElement = document.querySelectorAll('.pswp')[0]; var gallery = null; var paperListAvatar = []; var paperListAvatarThumb = []; $('.paperlist-avatar img').each(function(){ var webversion = $(this).attr('data-web'); var width = $(this).attr('data-width'); var height = $(this).attr('data-height'); var caption =$(this).attr('data-caption'); var figure = { src:webversion, w:width, h:height, title:caption }; paperListAvatarThumb.push($(this)[0]); paperListAvatar.push(figure); }); $('body').on('click', '.paperlist-avatar img', function (e) { if(paperListAvatarThumb.length === 0 && paperListAvatar.length === 0){ $('.paperlist-avatar img').each(function(){ var webversion = $(this).attr('data-web'); 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This work is distributed under <br class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet" />the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.</div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-7 d-none d-xl-block"> <div class="text-right articleBackLink"> <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/">Articles</a> | <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/issue1.html">Volume 13, issue 1</a> </div> <div class="tab co-angel-left d-md-none"></div> <div class="tab co-angel-right d-md-none"></div> <div class="mobile-citation"> <ul class="tab-navigation no-styling"> <li class="tab1.articlf active"><nobr><a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013.html">Article</a></nobr></li><li class="tab3.discussioo"><nobr><a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013-discussion.html">Peer review</a></nobr></li><li class="tab450.metrict"><nobr><a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013-metrics.html">Metrics</a></nobr></li><li class="tab500.relationt"><nobr><a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013-relations.html">Related articles</a></nobr></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="ms-type row no-gutters d-none d-lg-flex mb-1 mt-0 align-items-center"> <div class="col"> <div class="row no-gutters align-items-center"> <div class="col-auto"> Research article </div> <div class="col">  | <a target="_blank" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license" class="licence-icon-svg"><img src="https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/2175966/10/ssl"></a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-auto text-right">11 Jan 2013</div> </div> <div class="ms-type row no-gutters d-lg-none mb-1 align-items-center"> <div class="col-12"> Research article | <a target="_blank" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license" class="licence-icon-svg "><img src="https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/2175966/10/ssl"></a> | <span>11 Jan 2013</span> </div> </div> <h1>Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions </h1> <div class="mb-3 authors-with-affiliations"> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author73657">C. D. Holmes</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author73658">M. J. Prather</span>,</nobr> <nobr><span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author73659">O. A. Søvde</span>,</nobr> <nobr>and <span class="hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline" data-toggle="modal" data-target=".author73660">G. Myhre</span></nobr> </div> <div class="modal fade author73657" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-dialog-centered modal-dialog-scrollable"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <h3 class="modal-title">C. D. Holmes</h3> </div> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"> <span aria-hidden="true">×</span> </button> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12 mb-3"> Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="modal fade author73658" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-dialog-centered modal-dialog-scrollable"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <h3 class="modal-title">M. J. Prather</h3> <div class="row no-gutters"> <div class="col-12"> <a class="orcid-authors-logo" target="_blank" href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9442-8109" data-title="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9442-8109"><svg class="mr-2" version="1.1" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><image xlink:href="https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/orcid_icon.svg" src="https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/orcid_icon_128x128.png" width="100%" height="100%"></image></svg>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9442-8109</a> </div> </div> </div> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"> <span aria-hidden="true">×</span> </button> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12 mb-3"> Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="modal fade author73659" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-dialog-centered modal-dialog-scrollable"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <h3 class="modal-title">O. A. Søvde</h3> </div> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"> <span aria-hidden="true">×</span> </button> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12 mb-3"> Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="modal fade author73660" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog modal-dialog-centered modal-dialog-scrollable"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <h3 class="modal-title">G. Myhre</h3> <div class="row no-gutters"> <div class="col-12"> <a class="orcid-authors-logo" target="_blank" href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4309-476X" data-title="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4309-476X"><svg class="mr-2" version="1.1" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><image xlink:href="https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/orcid_icon.svg" src="https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/orcid_icon_128x128.png" width="100%" height="100%"></image></svg>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4309-476X</a> </div> </div> </div> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"> <span aria-hidden="true">×</span> </button> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="container-fluid p-0"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12 mb-3"> Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="abstract"> <p><strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Accurate prediction of future methane abundances following a climate scenario requires understanding the lifetime changes driven by anthropogenic emissions, meteorological factors, and chemistry-climate feedbacks. Uncertainty in any of these influences or the underlying processes implies uncertainty in future abundance and radiative forcing. We simulate methane lifetime in three chemical transport models (CTMs) – UCI CTM, GEOS-Chem, and Oslo CTM3 – over the period 1997–2009 and compare the models' year-to-year variability against constraints from global methyl chloroform observations. Using sensitivity tests, we find that temperature, water vapor, stratospheric ozone column, biomass burning and lightning NO<sub>x</sub> are the dominant sources of interannual changes in methane lifetime in all three models. We also evaluate each model's response to forcings that have impacts on decadal time scales, such as methane feedback, and anthropogenic emissions. In general, these different CTMs show similar sensitivities to the driving variables. We construct a parametric model that reproduces most of the interannual variability of each CTM and use it to predict methane lifetime from 1980 through 2100 following a specified emissions and climate scenario (RCP 8.5). The parametric model propagates uncertainties through all steps and provides a foundation for predicting methane abundances in any climate scenario. Our sensitivity tests also enable a new estimate of the methane global warming potential (GWP), accounting for stratospheric ozone effects, including those mediated by water vapor. We estimate the 100-yr GWP to be 32, which is 25% larger than past assessments.</p> </div> <div id="oldMobileDownloadBox" class="widget dark-border hide-on-desktop download-and-links"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Download & links</div> <div class="content"> <ul class="additional_info no-bullets no-styling"> <li> <a class="triangle" data-toggle=".box-notice" data-duration="300" title="PDF Version (1218 KB)" href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013.pdf" > Article (PDF, 1218 KB) </a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="content"> <ul class="additional_info no-bullets"> <li> <a class="triangle" href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013-supplement.pdf">Supplement</a> <nobr>(872 KB)</nobr> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="downloadBoxOneColumn" class="widget dark-border hide-on-desktop download-and-links"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Download & links</div> <div class="content"> <ul class="additional_info no-bullets no-styling"> <li><a class="triangle" title="PDF Version (1218 KB)" href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013.pdf">Article</a> <nobr>(1218 KB)</nobr> </li> <li> <a class="triangle" title="XML Version" href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013.xml">Metadata XML</a> </li> <li> <a class="triangle" href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013-supplement.pdf">Supplement</a> <nobr>(872 KB)</nobr> </li> <li><a class="triangle" href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013.bib">BibTeX</a></li> <li><a class="triangle" href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/285/2013/acp-13-285-2013.ris">EndNote</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="share" class="oneColumnShareMobileBox widget dark-border hide-on-desktop"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Share</div> <div class="content row m-0 py-1"> <div class="col-auto pl-0"> <a class="share-one-line" href="https://www.mendeley.com/import/?url=https%3A%2F%2Facp.copernicus.org%2Farticles%2F13%2F285%2F2013%2F" title="Mendeley" target="_blank"> <img src="https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/mendeley.png" alt="Mendeley"/> </a> </div> <div class="col-auto"> <a class="share-one-line" href="https://www.reddit.com/submit?url=https%3A%2F%2Facp.copernicus.org%2Farticles%2F13%2F285%2F2013%2F" title="Reddit" target="_blank"> <img src="https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/reddit.png" alt="Reddit"> </a> </div> <div class="col-auto"> <a class="share-one-line last" href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Future+methane%2C+hydroxyl%2C+and+their+uncertainties%3A+key+climate+and+emission+parameters+for+future+predictions https%3A%2F%2Facp.copernicus.org%2Farticles%2F13%2F285%2F2013%2F" title="Twitter" target="_blank"> <img src="https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/twitter.png" alt="Twitter"/> </a> </div> <div class="col-auto"> <a class="share-one-line" href="https://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Facp.copernicus.org%2Farticles%2F13%2F285%2F2013%2F&t=Future+methane%2C+hydroxyl%2C+and+their+uncertainties%3A+key+climate+and+emission+parameters+for+future+predictions" title="Facebook" target="_blank"> <img src="https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/facebook.png" alt="Facebook"/> </a> </div> <div class="col-auto pr-0"> <a class="share-one-line last" href="https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Facp.copernicus.org%2Farticles%2F13%2F285%2F2013%2F&title=Future+methane%2C+hydroxyl%2C+and+their+uncertainties%3A+key+climate+and+emission+parameters+for+future+predictions" title="LinkedIn" target="_blank"> <img src="https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/linkedin.png" alt="LinkedIn"> </a> </div> <div class="col pr-0 mobile-native-share"> <a href="#" data-title="Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics" data-text="*Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions* C. 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