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href="#Tversky_&_Kahneman_(1981)"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.1</span> <span>Tversky & Kahneman (1981)</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Tversky_&_Kahneman_(1981)-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Tversky_&_Kahneman_(1983)" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Tversky_&_Kahneman_(1983)"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.2</span> <span>Tversky & Kahneman (1983)</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Tversky_&_Kahneman_(1983)-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Criticism" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Criticism"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Criticism</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Criticism-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Debiasing" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 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href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D9%85%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%A9_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86" title="مغالطة التزامن – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="مغالطة التزامن" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-bg mw-list-item"><a href="https://bg.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%BB%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B0_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%B0" title="Заблуда на комбинацията – Bulgarian" lang="bg" hreflang="bg" data-title="Заблуда на комбинацията" data-language-autonym="Български" data-language-local-name="Bulgarian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Български</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ca mw-list-item"><a href="https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fal%C2%B7l%C3%A0cia_de_la_conjunci%C3%B3" title="Fal·làcia de la conjunció – Catalan" lang="ca" hreflang="ca" data-title="Fal·làcia de la conjunció" data-language-autonym="Català" data-language-local-name="Catalan" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Català</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_Fallacy" title="Conjunction Fallacy – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Conjunction Fallacy" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falacia_de_la_conjunci%C3%B3n" title="Falacia de la conjunción – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Falacia de la conjunción" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-eu mw-list-item"><a href="https://eu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konjuntzio-falazia" title="Konjuntzio-falazia – Basque" lang="eu" hreflang="eu" data-title="Konjuntzio-falazia" data-language-autonym="Euskara" data-language-local-name="Basque" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Euskara</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D9%85%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B7%D9%87_%D8%B9%D8%B7%D9%81_%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%82%DB%8C" title="مغالطه عطف منطقی – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="مغالطه عطف منطقی" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erreur_de_conjonction" title="Erreur de conjonction – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Erreur de conjonction" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-id mw-list-item"><a href="https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kesesatan_konjungsi" title="Kesesatan konjungsi – Indonesian" lang="id" hreflang="id" data-title="Kesesatan konjungsi" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Indonesia" data-language-local-name="Indonesian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Bahasa Indonesia</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacia_della_congiunzione" title="Fallacia della congiunzione – Italian" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Fallacia della congiunzione" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="Italian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Italiano</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-he mw-list-item"><a href="https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%9B%D7%A9%D7%9C_%D7%A6%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%95%D7%AA" title="כשל צירופיות – Hebrew" lang="he" hreflang="he" data-title="כשל צירופיות" data-language-autonym="עברית" 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class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.unpin">hide</button> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div id="bodyContent" class="vector-body" aria-labelledby="firstHeading" data-mw-ve-target-container> <div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Formal fallacy, aka Linda Problem</div><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Not to be confused with <a href="/wiki/False_conjunction" class="mw-redirect" title="False conjunction">False conjunction</a>.</div> <p>The <b>conjunction fallacy</b> (also known as the <b>Linda problem</b>) is an inference that a <a href="/wiki/Logical_conjunction" title="Logical conjunction">conjoint</a> set of two or more specific conclusions is likelier than any single member of that same set, in violation of the laws of probability. It is a type of <a href="/wiki/Formal_fallacy" title="Formal fallacy">formal fallacy</a>. </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Definition_and_basic_example">Definition and basic example</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Conjunction_fallacy&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Definition and basic example"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1224211176">.mw-parser-output .quotebox{background-color:#F9F9F9;border:1px solid #aaa;box-sizing:border-box;padding:10px;font-size:88%;max-width:100%}.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatleft{margin:.5em 1.4em .8em 0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatright{margin:.5em 0 .8em 1.4em}.mw-parser-output .quotebox.centered{overflow:hidden;position:relative;margin:.5em auto .8em auto}.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatleft span,.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatright span{font-style:inherit}.mw-parser-output .quotebox>blockquote{margin:0;padding:0;border-left:0;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-title{text-align:center;font-size:110%;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-quote>:first-child{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-quote:last-child>:last-child{margin-bottom:0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-quote.quoted:before{font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;font-weight:bold;font-size:large;color:gray;content:" “ ";vertical-align:-45%;line-height:0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-quote.quoted:after{font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;font-weight:bold;font-size:large;color:gray;content:" ” ";line-height:0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox .left-aligned{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .quotebox .right-aligned{text-align:right}.mw-parser-output .quotebox .center-aligned{text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .quotebox .quote-title,.mw-parser-output .quotebox .quotebox-quote{display:block}.mw-parser-output .quotebox cite{display:block;font-style:normal}@media screen and (max-width:640px){.mw-parser-output .quotebox{width:100%!important;margin:0 0 .8em!important;float:none!important}}</style><div class="quotebox pullquote floatright" style="width:25%; ;"> <blockquote class="quotebox-quote left-aligned" style=""> <p>I am particularly fond of this example [the Linda problem] because I know that the [conjoint] statement is least probable, yet a little <a href="/wiki/Homunculus" title="Homunculus">homunculus</a> in my head continues to jump up and down, shouting at me—"but she can't just be a bank teller; read the description." </p> </blockquote> <div style="padding-bottom: 0; padding-top: 0.5em"><cite class="left-aligned" style=""><a href="/wiki/Stephen_J._Gould" class="mw-redirect" title="Stephen J. Gould">Stephen J. Gould</a><sup id="cite_ref-Gould_(1988)_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Gould_(1988)-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></cite></div> </div> <p>The most often-cited example of this fallacy originated with <a href="/wiki/Amos_Tversky" title="Amos Tversky">Amos Tversky</a> and <a href="/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman" title="Daniel Kahneman">Daniel Kahneman</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-tk81_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk81-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Tversky_&_Kahneman_1982_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Tversky_&_Kahneman_1982-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-tk83_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk83-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <blockquote><p><i>Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.</i> </p><p>Which is more probable? </p> <ol><li>Linda is a bank teller.</li> <li>Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.</li></ol></blockquote> <p>The majority of those asked chose option 2. However, the <a href="/wiki/Probability" title="Probability">probability</a> of two events occurring together (that is, in conjunction) is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring itself—formally, for two events <i>A</i> and <i>B</i> this inequality could be written as <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(A)}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mo movablelimits="true" form="prefix">Pr</mo> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>A</mi> <mo>∧</mo> <mi>B</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>≤</mo> <mo movablelimits="true" form="prefix">Pr</mo> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>A</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(A)}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/66d6b15940358444219e241f6640242891018d62" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:19.539ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(A)}"></span> and <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(B)}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mo movablelimits="true" form="prefix">Pr</mo> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>A</mi> <mo>∧</mo> <mi>B</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>≤</mo> <mo movablelimits="true" form="prefix">Pr</mo> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>B</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(B)}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/5be4dffc7d0939eda176db7b70b2f490b1cb6ca5" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:19.56ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(B)}"></span>. </p><p>For example, even choosing a very low probability of Linda's being a bank teller, say Pr(Linda is a bank teller) = 0.05 and a high probability that she would be a feminist, say Pr(Linda is a feminist) = 0.95, then, assuming <a href="/wiki/Statistical_independence" class="mw-redirect" title="Statistical independence">these two facts are independent of each other</a>, Pr(Linda is a bank teller <i>and</i> Linda is a feminist) = 0.05 × 0.95 or 0.0475, lower than Pr(Linda is a bank teller). </p><p>Tversky and Kahneman argue that most people get this problem wrong because they use a <a href="/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decision_making" class="mw-redirect" title="Heuristics in judgment and decision making">heuristic</a> (an easily calculated) procedure called <a href="/wiki/Representativeness_heuristic" title="Representativeness heuristic">representativeness</a> to make this kind of judgment: Option 2 seems more "representative" of Linda from the description of her, even though it is clearly mathematically less likely.<sup id="cite_ref-tk83_4-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk83-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In other demonstrations, they argued that a specific scenario seemed more likely because of representativeness, but each added detail would actually make the scenario less and less likely. In this way it could be similar to the <a href="/wiki/Misleading_vividness" class="mw-redirect" title="Misleading vividness">misleading vividness</a> or <a href="/wiki/Slippery_slope" title="Slippery slope">slippery slope</a> fallacies. More recently<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Manual_of_Style/Dates_and_numbers#Chronological_items" title="Wikipedia:Manual of Style/Dates and numbers"><span title="The time period mentioned near this tag is ambiguous. (March 2024)">when?</span></a></i>]</sup> Kahneman has argued that the conjunction fallacy is a type of <a href="/wiki/Extension_neglect" title="Extension neglect">extension neglect</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Joint_versus_separate_evaluation">Joint versus separate evaluation</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Conjunction_fallacy&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Joint versus separate evaluation"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In some experimental demonstrations, the conjoint option is evaluated separately from its basic option. In other words, one group of participants is asked to rank-order the likelihood that Linda is a bank teller, a high school teacher, and several other options, and another group is asked to rank-order whether Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement versus the same set of options (without "Linda is a bank teller" as an option). In this type of demonstration, different groups of subjects still rank-order Linda as a bank teller and active in the feminist movement more highly than Linda as a bank teller.<sup id="cite_ref-tk83_4-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk83-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Separate evaluation experiments preceded the earliest joint evaluation experiments, and Kahneman and Tversky were surprised when the effect was observed even under joint evaluation.<sup id="cite_ref-tk2011-15_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk2011-15-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In separate evaluation, the term <b>conjunction effect</b> may be preferred.<sup id="cite_ref-tk83_4-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk83-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Other_examples">Other examples</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Conjunction_fallacy&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Other examples"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>While the Linda problem is the best-known example, researchers have developed dozens of problems that reliably elicit the conjunction fallacy. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Tversky_&_Kahneman_(1981)"><span id="Tversky_.26_Kahneman_.281981.29"></span>Tversky & Kahneman (1981)</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Conjunction_fallacy&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Tversky & Kahneman (1981)"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The original report by Tversky & Kahneman<sup id="cite_ref-tk81_2-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk81-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> (later republished as a book chapter<sup id="cite_ref-Tversky_&_Kahneman_1982_3-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Tversky_&_Kahneman_1982-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>) described four problems that elicited the conjunction fallacy, including the Linda problem. There was also a similar problem about a man named Bill (a good fit for the stereotype of an accountant — "intelligent, but unimaginative, compulsive, and generally lifeless" — but not a good fit for the stereotype of a jazz player), and two problems where participants were asked to make predictions for events that could occur in 1981. </p><p>Policy experts were asked to rate the probability that the <a href="/wiki/Soviet_Union" title="Soviet Union">Soviet Union</a> would invade <a href="/wiki/Poland" title="Poland">Poland</a>, and the <a href="/wiki/United_States" title="United States">United States</a> would break off <a href="/wiki/Diplomatic_relations" class="mw-redirect" title="Diplomatic relations">diplomatic relations</a>, all in the following year. They rated it on average as having a 4% probability of occurring. Another group of experts was asked to rate the probability simply that the United States would break off relations with the Soviet Union in the following year. They gave it an average probability of only 1%. </p><p>In an experiment conducted in 1980, respondents were asked the following: </p> <blockquote><p>Suppose <a href="/wiki/Bj%C3%B6rn_Borg" title="Björn Borg">Björn Borg</a> reaches the <a href="/wiki/The_Championships,_Wimbledon" class="mw-redirect" title="The Championships, Wimbledon">Wimbledon</a> finals in 1981. Please rank order the following outcomes from most to least likely. </p><ul><li>Borg will win the match</li> <li>Borg will lose the first set</li> <li>Borg will lose the first set but win the match</li> <li>Borg will win the first set but lose the match</li></ul></blockquote> <p>On average, participants rated "Borg will lose the first set but win the match" more likely than "Borg will lose the first set". However, winning the match is only one of several potential eventual outcomes after having lost the first set. The first and the second outcome are thus more likely (as they only contain one condition) than the third and fourth outcome (which depend on two conditions). </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Tversky_&_Kahneman_(1983)"><span id="Tversky_.26_Kahneman_.281983.29"></span>Tversky & Kahneman (1983)</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Conjunction_fallacy&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Tversky & Kahneman (1983)"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Tversky and Kahneman followed up their original findings with a 1983 paper<sup id="cite_ref-tk83_4-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk83-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> that looked at dozens of new problems, most of these with multiple variations. The following are a couple of examples. </p> <blockquote><p>Consider a regular six-sided die with four green faces and two red faces. The die will be rolled 20 times and the sequence of greens (G) and reds (R) will be recorded. You are asked to select one sequence, from a set of three, and you will win $25 if the sequence you choose appears on successive rolls of the die. </p><ol><li>RGRRR</li> <li>GRGRRR</li> <li>GRRRRR</li></ol></blockquote> <p>65% of participants chose the second sequence, though option 1 is contained within it and is shorter than the other options. In a version where the $25 bet was only hypothetical the results did not significantly differ. Tversky and Kahneman argued that sequence 2 appears "representative" of a chance sequence<sup id="cite_ref-tk83_4-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk83-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> (compare to the <i><a href="/wiki/Clustering_illusion" title="Clustering illusion">clustering illusion</a></i>). </p> <blockquote> <p>A health survey was conducted in a representative sample of adult males in British Columbia of all ages and occupations. </p><p>Mr. F. was included in the sample. He was selected by chance from the list of participants. </p><p>Which of the following statements is more probable? (check one) </p> <ol><li>Mr. F. has had one or more heart attacks.</li> <li>Mr. F. has had one or more heart attacks and he is over 55 years old.</li></ol></blockquote> <p>The probability of the conjunctions is never greater than that of its conjuncts. Therefore, the first choice is more probable. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Criticism">Criticism</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Conjunction_fallacy&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Criticism"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Critics such as <a href="/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer" title="Gerd Gigerenzer">Gerd Gigerenzer</a> and <a href="/wiki/Ralph_Hertwig" title="Ralph Hertwig">Ralph Hertwig</a> criticized the Linda problem on grounds such as the <a href="/wiki/Diction" title="Diction">wording</a> and <a href="/wiki/Framing_effect" class="mw-redirect" title="Framing effect">framing</a>. The question of the Linda problem may violate <a href="/wiki/Conversational_maxim" class="mw-redirect" title="Conversational maxim">conversational maxims</a> in that people assume that the question obeys the maxim of relevance. Gigerenzer argues that some of the terminology used have <a href="/wiki/Polysemy" title="Polysemy">polysemous</a> meanings, the alternatives of which he claimed were more "natural". He argues that one meaning of <i>probable</i> ("what happens frequently") corresponds to the mathematical probability people are supposed to be tested on, but other meanings ("what is plausible" and "whether there is evidence") do not.<sup id="cite_ref-Gigerenzer_(1996)_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Gigerenzer_(1996)-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Hertwig_&_Gigerenzer_(1999)_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Hertwig_&_Gigerenzer_(1999)-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The term "and" has even been argued to have relevant polysemous meanings.<sup id="cite_ref-Mellers,_Hertwig_&_Kahneman_(2001)_9-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Mellers,_Hertwig_&_Kahneman_(2001)-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Many techniques have been developed to control for this possible misinterpretation, but none of them has dissipated the effect.<sup id="cite_ref-Moro,_2009_10-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Moro,_2009-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Tentori_&_Crupi,_2012_11-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Tentori_&_Crupi,_2012-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Many variations in wording of the Linda problem were studied by Tversky and Kahneman.<sup id="cite_ref-tk83_4-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk83-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> If the first option is changed to obey conversational relevance, i.e., "Linda is a bank teller whether or not she is active in the feminist movement" the effect is decreased, but the majority (57%) of the respondents still commit the conjunction error. If the probability is changed to frequency format (<i>see debiasing section below</i>) the effect is reduced or eliminated. However, studies exist in which indistinguishable conjunction fallacy rates have been observed with stimuli framed in terms of probabilities versus frequencies.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The wording criticisms may be less applicable to the conjunction effect in separate evaluation.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="margin-left:0.1em; white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Vagueness" title="Wikipedia:Vagueness"><span title="This information is too vague. (February 2013)">vague</span></a></i>]</sup><sup id="cite_ref-Gigerenzer_(1996)_7-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Gigerenzer_(1996)-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The "Linda problem" has been studied and criticized more than other types of demonstration of the effect (some described below).<sup id="cite_ref-tk2011-15_6-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk2011-15-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Mellers,_Hertwig_&_Kahneman_(2001)_9-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Mellers,_Hertwig_&_Kahneman_(2001)-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Kahneman_&_Tversky_(1996)_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Kahneman_&_Tversky_(1996)-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In an incentivized experimental study, it has been shown that the conjunction fallacy decreased in those with greater cognitive ability, though it did not disappear.<sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It has also been shown that the conjunction fallacy becomes less prevalent when subjects are allowed to consult with other subjects.<sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Still, the conjunction fallacy occurs even when people are asked to make bets with real money,<sup id="cite_ref-SOBV_2002_16-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-SOBV_2002-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and when they solve intuitive physics problems of various designs.<sup id="cite_ref-LPBDG_2020_17-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-LPBDG_2020-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Debiasing">Debiasing</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Conjunction_fallacy&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Debiasing"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Drawing attention to set relationships, using <a href="/wiki/Frequentism" class="mw-redirect" title="Frequentism">frequencies</a> instead of probabilities, and/or thinking <a href="/wiki/Venn_diagram" title="Venn diagram">diagrammatically</a> sharply reduce the error in some forms of the conjunction fallacy.<sup id="cite_ref-tk83_4-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-tk83-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Hertwig_&_Gigerenzer_(1999)_8-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Hertwig_&_Gigerenzer_(1999)-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Mellers,_Hertwig_&_Kahneman_(2001)_9-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Mellers,_Hertwig_&_Kahneman_(2001)-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Gigerenzer_(1991)_18-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Gigerenzer_(1991)-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In one experiment the question of the Linda problem was reformulated as follows: </p> <blockquote><p>There are 100 persons who fit the description above (that is, Linda's). How many of them are:</p> <ul><li>Bank tellers? __ of 100</li> <li>Bank tellers and active in the feminist movement? __ of 100</li></ul></blockquote> <p>Whereas previously 85% of participants gave the wrong answer (bank teller and active in the feminist movement), in experiments done with this questioning the proportion of incorrect answers is dramatically reduced (to ~20%).<sup id="cite_ref-Gigerenzer_(1991)_18-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Gigerenzer_(1991)-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Participants were forced to use a mathematical approach and thus recognized the difference more easily. </p><p>However, in some tasks only based on frequencies, not on stories, that used clear logical formulations, conjunction fallacies continued to occur dominantly, with only few exceptions, when the observed pattern of frequencies resembled a conjunction.<sup id="cite_ref-von_Sydow_(2011)_19-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-von_Sydow_(2011)-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="In_popular_culture">In popular culture</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Conjunction_fallacy&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: In popular culture"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li>In <a href="/wiki/Criminal_Minds_season_13#Episodes" title="Criminal Minds season 13">Episode 3 of Season 13</a> of <a href="/wiki/Criminal_Minds" title="Criminal Minds">Criminal Minds</a>, <a href="/wiki/List_of_Criminal_Minds_characters" title="List of Criminal Minds characters">SSA Dr. Spencer Reid</a> exposes the Linda problem to <a href="/wiki/List_of_Criminal_Minds_characters" title="List of Criminal Minds characters">SSA Luke Alvez</a> and <a href="/wiki/List_of_Criminal_Minds_characters" title="List of Criminal Minds characters">SA Penelope Garcia</a>, saying that he is planning to discuss it in a seminar addressed to FBI agents.</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Conjunction_fallacy&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist reflist-columns references-column-width" style="column-width: 30em;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-Gould_(1988)-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Gould_(1988)_1-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFGould1988" class="citation news cs1">Gould, Stephen J. (1988). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/1988/aug/18/the-streak-of-streaks/?pagination=false">"The Streak of Streaks"</a>. <i>The New York Review of Books</i>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Review+of+Books&rft.atitle=The+Streak+of+Streaks&rft.date=1988&rft.aulast=Gould&rft.aufirst=Stephen+J.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nybooks.com%2Farticles%2Farchives%2F1988%2Faug%2F18%2Fthe-streak-of-streaks%2F%3Fpagination%3Dfalse&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-tk81-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-tk81_2-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-tk81_2-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTverskyKahneman1981" class="citation report cs1">Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (1981). Judgments of and by representativeness (Report). Stanford University.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=report&rft.btitle=Judgments+of+and+by+representativeness&rft.pub=Stanford+University&rft.date=1981&rft.aulast=Tversky&rft.aufirst=Amos&rft.au=Kahneman%2C+Daniel&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Tversky_&_Kahneman_1982-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Tversky_&_Kahneman_1982_3-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Tversky_&_Kahneman_1982_3-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTverskyKahneman1982" class="citation book cs1">Tversky, A.; Kahneman, D. (1982). "Judgments of and by representativeness". In Kahneman, D.; Slovic, P.; Tversky, A. (eds.). <i>Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases</i>. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/0-521-28414-7" title="Special:BookSources/0-521-28414-7"><bdi>0-521-28414-7</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Judgments+of+and+by+representativeness&rft.btitle=Judgment+under+uncertainty%3A+Heuristics+and+biases&rft.place=Cambridge%2C+UK&rft.pub=Cambridge+University+Press&rft.date=1982&rft.isbn=0-521-28414-7&rft.aulast=Tversky&rft.aufirst=A.&rft.au=Kahneman%2C+D.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-tk83-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-tk83_4-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-tk83_4-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-tk83_4-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-tk83_4-3"><sup><i><b>d</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-tk83_4-4"><sup><i><b>e</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-tk83_4-5"><sup><i><b>f</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-tk83_4-6"><sup><i><b>g</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-tk83_4-7"><sup><i><b>h</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTverskyKahneman1983" class="citation journal cs1">Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (October 1983). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.today/20130223193247/http://content2.apa.org/journals/rev/90/4/293">"Extension versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Psychological_Review" title="Psychological Review">Psychological Review</a></i>. <b>90</b> (4): <span class="nowrap">293–</span>315. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1037%2F0033-295X.90.4.293">10.1037/0033-295X.90.4.293</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://content2.apa.org/journals/rev/90/4/293">the original</a> on 2013-02-23.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Psychological+Review&rft.atitle=Extension+versus+intuitive+reasoning%3A+The+conjunction+fallacy+in+probability+judgment&rft.volume=90&rft.issue=4&rft.pages=%3Cspan+class%3D%22nowrap%22%3E293-%3C%2Fspan%3E315&rft.date=1983-10&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1037%2F0033-295X.90.4.293&rft.aulast=Tversky&rft.aufirst=Amos&rft.au=Kahneman%2C+Daniel&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fcontent2.apa.org%2Fjournals%2Frev%2F90%2F4%2F293&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-5">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFKahneman2000" class="citation book cs1">Kahneman, Daniel (2000). "Evaluation by moments, past and future". In Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos (eds.). <i>Choices, Values and Frames</i>. Cambridge University Press. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/0-521-62749-4" title="Special:BookSources/0-521-62749-4"><bdi>0-521-62749-4</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Evaluation+by+moments%2C+past+and+future&rft.btitle=Choices%2C+Values+and+Frames&rft.pub=Cambridge+University+Press&rft.date=2000&rft.isbn=0-521-62749-4&rft.aulast=Kahneman&rft.aufirst=Daniel&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-tk2011-15-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-tk2011-15_6-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-tk2011-15_6-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFKahneman2011" class="citation book cs1">Kahneman, Daniel (2011). "Linda: Less is More". <span class="id-lock-registration" title="Free registration required"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/thinkingfastslow0000kahn"><i>Thinking, Fast and Slow</i></a></span>. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. pp. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/thinkingfastslow0000kahn/page/156">156</a>–165.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Linda%3A+Less+is+More&rft.btitle=Thinking%2C+Fast+and+Slow&rft.place=New+York&rft.pages=156-165&rft.pub=Farrar%2C+Straus+and+Giroux&rft.date=2011&rft.aulast=Kahneman&rft.aufirst=Daniel&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Fthinkingfastslow0000kahn&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Gigerenzer_(1996)-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Gigerenzer_(1996)_7-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Gigerenzer_(1996)_7-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGigerenzer1996" class="citation journal cs1">Gigerenzer, Gerd (1996). "On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky". <i>Psychological Review</i>. <b>103</b> (3): <span class="nowrap">592–</span>596. <a href="/wiki/CiteSeerX_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="CiteSeerX (identifier)">CiteSeerX</a> <span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.314.996">10.1.1.314.996</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1037%2F0033-295X.103.3.592">10.1037/0033-295X.103.3.592</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Psychological+Review&rft.atitle=On+narrow+norms+and+vague+heuristics%3A+A+reply+to+Kahneman+and+Tversky&rft.volume=103&rft.issue=3&rft.pages=%3Cspan+class%3D%22nowrap%22%3E592-%3C%2Fspan%3E596&rft.date=1996&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fciteseerx.ist.psu.edu%2Fviewdoc%2Fsummary%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.314.996%23id-name%3DCiteSeerX&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1037%2F0033-295X.103.3.592&rft.aulast=Gigerenzer&rft.aufirst=Gerd&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Hertwig_&_Gigerenzer_(1999)-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Hertwig_&_Gigerenzer_(1999)_8-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Hertwig_&_Gigerenzer_(1999)_8-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFHertwigGigerenzer1999" class="citation journal cs1">Hertwig, Ralph; Gigerenzer, Gerd (1999). 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(2001). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://cds.unibas.ch/~hertwig/pdfs/2001/Mellersetal2001_frequency_eliminate_conjunction.pdf">"Do frequency representations eliminate conjunction effects? An exercise in adversarial collaboration"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>Psychological Science</i>. <b>12</b> (4): <span class="nowrap">269–</span>275. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1111%2F1467-9280.00350">10.1111/1467-9280.00350</a>. <a href="/wiki/Hdl_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Hdl (identifier)">hdl</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://hdl.handle.net/11858%2F00-001M-0000-0025-957F-D">11858/00-001M-0000-0025-957F-D</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11476091">11476091</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:38522595">38522595</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Psychological+Science&rft.atitle=Do+frequency+representations+eliminate+conjunction+effects%3F+An+exercise+in+adversarial+collaboration&rft.volume=12&rft.issue=4&rft.pages=%3Cspan+class%3D%22nowrap%22%3E269-%3C%2Fspan%3E275&rft.date=2001&rft_id=info%3Ahdl%2F11858%2F00-001M-0000-0025-957F-D&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A38522595%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F11476091&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1111%2F1467-9280.00350&rft.aulast=Mellers&rft.aufirst=B.&rft.au=Hertwig%2C+R.&rft.au=Kahneman%2C+D.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fcds.unibas.ch%2F~hertwig%2Fpdfs%2F2001%2FMellersetal2001_frequency_eliminate_conjunction.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Moro,_2009-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Moro,_2009_10-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMoro2009" class="citation journal cs1">Moro, Rodrigo (2009). "On the nature of the conjunction fallacy". <i>Synthese</i>. <b>171</b> (1): <span class="nowrap">1–</span>24. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1007%2Fs11229-008-9377-8">10.1007/s11229-008-9377-8</a>. <a href="/wiki/Hdl_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Hdl (identifier)">hdl</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://hdl.handle.net/11336%2F69232">11336/69232</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:207244869">207244869</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Synthese&rft.atitle=On+the+nature+of+the+conjunction+fallacy&rft.volume=171&rft.issue=1&rft.pages=%3Cspan+class%3D%22nowrap%22%3E1-%3C%2Fspan%3E24&rft.date=2009&rft_id=info%3Ahdl%2F11336%2F69232&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A207244869%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1007%2Fs11229-008-9377-8&rft.aulast=Moro&rft.aufirst=Rodrigo&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Tentori_&_Crupi,_2012-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Tentori_&_Crupi,_2012_11-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTentoriCrupi2012" class="citation journal cs1">Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo (2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.vincenzocrupi.com/website/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/TentoriCrupi2012_Cognition.pdf">"On the conjunction fallacy and the meaning of <i>and</i>, yet again: A reply to Hertwig, Benz, and Krauss"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>Cognition</i>. <b>122</b> (2): <span class="nowrap">123–</span>134. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.cognition.2011.09.002">10.1016/j.cognition.2011.09.002</a>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22079517">22079517</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:6192639">6192639</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160510225145/http://www.vincenzocrupi.com/website/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/TentoriCrupi2012_Cognition.pdf">Archived</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> from the original on 2016-05-10.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Cognition&rft.atitle=On+the+conjunction+fallacy+and+the+meaning+of+and%2C+yet+again%3A+A+reply+to+Hertwig%2C+Benz%2C+and+Krauss&rft.volume=122&rft.issue=2&rft.pages=%3Cspan+class%3D%22nowrap%22%3E123-%3C%2Fspan%3E134&rft.date=2012&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A6192639%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F22079517&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1016%2Fj.cognition.2011.09.002&rft.aulast=Tentori&rft.aufirst=Katya&rft.au=Crupi%2C+Vincenzo&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vincenzocrupi.com%2Fwebsite%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F02%2FTentoriCrupi2012_Cognition.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-12"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-12">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">See, for example: <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTentoriBoniniOsherson2004" class="citation journal cs1">Tentori, Katya; Bonini, Nicolao; Osherson, Daniel (2004). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1207%2Fs15516709cog2803_8">"The conjunction fallacy: a misunderstanding about conjunction?"</a>. <i>Cognitive Science</i>. <b>28</b> (3): <span class="nowrap">467–</span>477. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1207%2Fs15516709cog2803_8">10.1207/s15516709cog2803_8</a></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Cognitive+Science&rft.atitle=The+conjunction+fallacy%3A+a+misunderstanding+about+conjunction%3F&rft.volume=28&rft.issue=3&rft.pages=%3Cspan+class%3D%22nowrap%22%3E467-%3C%2Fspan%3E477&rft.date=2004&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1207%2Fs15516709cog2803_8&rft.aulast=Tentori&rft.aufirst=Katya&rft.au=Bonini%2C+Nicolao&rft.au=Osherson%2C+Daniel&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1207%252Fs15516709cog2803_8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AConjunction+fallacy" class="Z3988"></span> Or: <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFWedellMoro2008" class="citation journal cs1">Wedell, Douglas H.; 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bias">Attentional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attribution_bias" title="Attribution bias">Attribution</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Actor%E2%80%93observer_asymmetry" title="Actor–observer asymmetry">Actor–observer</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error" title="Fundamental attribution error">Correspondence</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Authority_bias" title="Authority bias">Authority</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Automation_bias" title="Automation bias">Automation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Availability_heuristic" title="Availability heuristic">Availability</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mean_world_syndrome" title="Mean world syndrome">Mean world</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Belief_bias" title="Belief bias">Belief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bias_blind_spot" title="Bias blind spot">Blind spot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Choice-supportive_bias" title="Choice-supportive bias">Choice-supportive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment" title="Escalation of commitment">Commitment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Confirmation_bias" title="Confirmation bias">Confirmation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Selective_perception" title="Selective perception">Selective perception</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Compassion_fade" title="Compassion fade">Compassion fade</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Congruence_bias" title="Congruence bias">Congruence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cultural_bias" title="Cultural bias">Cultural</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Declinism" title="Declinism">Declinism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Distinction_bias" title="Distinction bias">Distinction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect" title="Dunning–Kruger effect">Dunning–Kruger</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Egocentric_bias" title="Egocentric bias">Egocentric</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge" title="Curse of knowledge">Curse of knowledge</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Emotional_bias" title="Emotional bias">Emotional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extrinsic_incentives_bias" title="Extrinsic incentives bias">Extrinsic incentives</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fading_affect_bias" title="Fading affect bias">Fading affect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Framing_effect_(psychology)" title="Framing effect (psychology)">Framing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frequency_illusion" title="Frequency illusion">Frequency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frog_pond_effect" title="Frog pond effect">Frog pond effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Halo_effect" title="Halo effect">Halo effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hindsight_bias" title="Hindsight bias">Hindsight</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Horn_effect" title="Horn effect">Horn effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hostile_attribution_bias" title="Hostile attribution bias">Hostile attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Impact_bias" title="Impact bias">Impact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Implicit_stereotype" title="Implicit stereotype">Implicit</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/In-group_favoritism" title="In-group favoritism">In-group</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intentionality_bias" title="Intentionality bias">Intentionality</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illusion_of_transparency" title="Illusion of transparency">Illusion of transparency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mean_world_syndrome" title="Mean world syndrome">Mean world syndrome</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mere-exposure_effect" title="Mere-exposure effect">Mere-exposure effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Narrative_bias" title="Narrative bias">Narrative</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Negativity_bias" title="Negativity bias">Negativity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Normalcy_bias" title="Normalcy bias">Normalcy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Omission_bias" title="Omission bias">Omission</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Optimism_bias" title="Optimism bias">Optimism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Out-group_homogeneity" title="Out-group homogeneity">Out-group homogeneity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Outcome_bias" title="Outcome bias">Outcome</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overton_window" title="Overton window">Overton window</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Precision_bias" title="Precision bias">Precision</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Present_bias" title="Present bias">Present</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pro-innovation_bias" title="Pro-innovation bias">Pro-innovation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proximity_bias" title="Proximity bias">Proximity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Response_bias" title="Response bias">Response</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Restraint_bias" title="Restraint bias">Restraint</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-serving_bias" title="Self-serving bias">Self-serving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social_comparison_bias" title="Social comparison bias">Social comparison</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social_influence_bias" title="Social influence bias">Social influence bias</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Spotlight_effect" title="Spotlight effect">Spotlight</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Status_quo_bias" title="Status quo bias">Status quo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attribute_substitution" title="Attribute substitution">Substitution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Time-saving_bias" title="Time-saving bias">Time-saving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Trait_ascription_bias" title="Trait ascription bias">Trait ascription</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Turkey_illusion" title="Turkey illusion">Turkey illusion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Von_Restorff_effect" title="Von Restorff effect">von Restorff effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Zero-risk_bias" title="Zero-risk bias">Zero-risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias_in_animals" title="Cognitive bias in animals">In animals</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Bias_(statistics)" title="Bias (statistics)">Statistical biases</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bias_of_an_estimator" title="Bias of an estimator">Estimator</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forecast_bias" title="Forecast bias">Forecast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Healthy_user_bias" title="Healthy user bias">Healthy user</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Information_bias_(epidemiology)" title="Information bias (epidemiology)">Information</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Information_bias_(psychology)" title="Information bias (psychology)">Psychological</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lead_time_bias" title="Lead time bias">Lead time</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Length_time_bias" title="Length time bias">Length time</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Participation_bias" title="Participation bias">Non-response</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Observer_bias" title="Observer bias">Observer</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Omitted-variable_bias" title="Omitted-variable bias">Omitted-variable</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Participation_bias" title="Participation bias">Participation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recall_bias" title="Recall bias">Recall</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sampling_bias" title="Sampling bias">Sampling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Selection_bias" title="Selection bias">Selection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-selection_bias" title="Self-selection bias">Self-selection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social-desirability_bias" title="Social-desirability bias">Social desirability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Spectrum_bias" title="Spectrum bias">Spectrum</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Survivorship_bias" title="Survivorship bias">Survivorship</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systematic_error" class="mw-redirect" title="Systematic error">Systematic error</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systemic_bias" title="Systemic bias">Systemic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Verification_bias" title="Verification bias">Verification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wet_bias" title="Wet bias">Wet</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Other biases</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Academic_bias" title="Academic bias">Academic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Basking_in_reflected_glory" title="Basking in reflected glory">Basking in reflected glory</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/D%C3%A9formation_professionnelle" title="Déformation professionnelle">Déformation professionnelle</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Funding_bias" title="Funding bias">Funding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/FUTON_bias" class="mw-redirect" title="FUTON bias">FUTON</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inductive_bias" title="Inductive bias">Inductive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Infrastructure_bias" title="Infrastructure bias">Infrastructure</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inherent_bias" title="Inherent bias">Inherent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bias_in_education" class="mw-redirect" title="Bias in education">In education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Liking_gap" title="Liking gap">Liking gap</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias" title="Media bias">Media</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/False_balance" title="False balance">False balance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_States_news_media_and_the_Vietnam_War" title="United States news media and the Vietnam War">Vietnam War</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias_in_South_Asia" title="Media bias in South Asia">South Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias_in_the_United_States" title="Media bias in the United States">United States</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_the_Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_conflict" class="mw-redirect" title="Media coverage of the Arab–Israeli conflict">Arab–Israeli conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_portrayal_of_the_Ukrainian_crisis" class="mw-redirect" title="Media portrayal of the Ukrainian crisis">Ukraine</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_bias" title="Net bias">Net</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Political_bias" title="Political bias">Political bias</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Publication_bias" title="Publication bias">Publication</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/System_justification" title="System justification">System justification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reporting_bias" title="Reporting bias">Reporting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/White_hat_bias" title="White hat bias">White hat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ideological_bias_on_Wikipedia" title="Ideological bias on Wikipedia">Ideological bias on Wikipedia</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Bias reduction</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias_mitigation" title="Cognitive bias mitigation">Cognitive bias mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Debiasing" title="Debiasing">Debiasing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heuristic_(psychology)" title="Heuristic (psychology)">Heuristics in judgment and decision-making</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow hlist" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li>Lists: <a href="/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases" title="List of cognitive biases">General</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Memory_biases" title="List of cognitive biases">Memory</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></div> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236075235"></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Common_fallacies_(list)222" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1239400231"><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Fallacies" title="Template:Fallacies"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Fallacies" title="Template talk:Fallacies"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Fallacies" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Fallacies"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Common_fallacies_(list)222" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Common <a href="/wiki/Fallacy" title="Fallacy">fallacies</a> (<a href="/wiki/List_of_fallacies" title="List of fallacies">list</a>)</div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Formal_fallacy" title="Formal fallacy">Formal</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">In <a href="/wiki/Propositional_calculus" title="Propositional calculus">propositional logic</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Affirming_a_disjunct" title="Affirming a disjunct">Affirming a disjunct</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent" title="Affirming the consequent">Affirming the consequent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Denying_the_antecedent" title="Denying the antecedent">Denying the antecedent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Argument_from_fallacy" title="Argument from fallacy">Argument from fallacy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Masked-man_fallacy" title="Masked-man fallacy">Masked man</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mathematical_fallacy" title="Mathematical fallacy">Mathematical fallacy</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">In <a href="/wiki/Quantifier_(logic)" title="Quantifier (logic)">quantificational logic</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Existential_fallacy" title="Existential fallacy">Existential</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent" title="Affirming the consequent">Illicit conversion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proof_by_example" title="Proof by example">Proof by example</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Quantifier_shift" title="Quantifier shift">Quantifier shift</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Syllogistic_fallacy" class="mw-redirect" title="Syllogistic fallacy">Syllogistic fallacy</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Affirmative_conclusion_from_a_negative_premise" title="Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise">Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Negative_conclusion_from_affirmative_premises" title="Negative conclusion from affirmative premises">Negative conclusion from affirmative premises</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_exclusive_premises" title="Fallacy of exclusive premises">Exclusive premises</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Existential_fallacy" title="Existential fallacy">Existential</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Modal_scope_fallacy" class="mw-redirect" title="Modal scope fallacy">Necessity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_four_terms" title="Fallacy of four terms">Four terms</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illicit_major" title="Illicit major">Illicit major</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illicit_minor" title="Illicit minor">Illicit minor</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_the_undistributed_middle" title="Fallacy of the undistributed middle">Undistributed middle</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Informal_fallacy" title="Informal fallacy">Informal</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Equivocation</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Equivocation" title="Equivocation">Equivocation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/False_equivalence" title="False equivalence">False equivalence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/False_attribution" title="False attribution">False attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Quoting_out_of_context" title="Quoting out of context">Quoting out of context</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Loki%27s_Wager" class="mw-redirect" title="Loki's Wager">Loki's Wager</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/No_true_Scotsman" title="No true Scotsman">No true Scotsman</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reification_(fallacy)" title="Reification (fallacy)">Reification</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Question-begging</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Circular_reasoning" title="Circular reasoning">Circular reasoning</a> / <a href="/wiki/Begging_the_question" title="Begging the question">Begging the question</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Loaded_language" title="Loaded language">Loaded language</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Leading_question" title="Leading question">Leading question</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Double-barreled_question" title="Double-barreled question">Compound question</a> / <a href="/wiki/Loaded_question" title="Loaded question">Loaded question</a> / <a href="/wiki/Complex_question" title="Complex question">Complex question</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/No_true_Scotsman" title="No true Scotsman">No true Scotsman</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Correlative-based_fallacies" title="Correlative-based fallacies">Correlative-based</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/False_dilemma" title="False dilemma">False dilemma</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy" title="Nirvana fallacy">Perfect solution</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Denying_the_correlative" title="Denying the correlative">Denying the correlative</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Suppressed_correlative" title="Suppressed correlative">Suppressed correlative</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Fallacies_of_illicit_transference" title="Fallacies of illicit transference">Illicit transference</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_composition" title="Fallacy of composition">Composition</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_division" title="Fallacy of division">Division</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_fallacy" title="Ecological fallacy">Ecological</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><i><a href="/wiki/Secundum_quid" title="Secundum quid">Secundum quid</a></i></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Accident_(fallacy)" title="Accident (fallacy)">Accident</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Converse_accident" title="Converse accident">Converse accident</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Faulty_generalization" title="Faulty generalization">Faulty generalization</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence" title="Anecdotal evidence">Anecdotal evidence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sampling_bias" title="Sampling bias">Sampling bias</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cherry_picking" title="Cherry picking">Cherry picking</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/McNamara_fallacy" title="McNamara fallacy">McNamara</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy" title="Base rate fallacy">Base rate</a> / <a class="mw-selflink selflink">Conjunction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Double_counting_(fallacy)" title="Double counting (fallacy)">Double counting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Argument_from_analogy" title="Argument from analogy">False analogy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Slothful_induction" title="Slothful induction">Slothful induction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overwhelming_exception" title="Overwhelming exception">Overwhelming exception</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Ambiguity" title="Ambiguity">Ambiguity</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_accent" title="Fallacy of accent">Accent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/False_precision" title="False precision">False precision</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Moving_the_goalposts" title="Moving the goalposts">Moving the goalposts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Quoting_out_of_context" title="Quoting out of context">Quoting out of context</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Slippery_slope" title="Slippery slope">Slippery slope</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sorites_paradox" title="Sorites paradox">Sorites paradox</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Syntactic_ambiguity" title="Syntactic ambiguity">Syntactic ambiguity</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Questionable_cause" title="Questionable cause">Questionable cause</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Animistic_fallacy" title="Animistic fallacy">Animistic</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Furtive_fallacy" title="Furtive fallacy">Furtive</a></li></ul></li> <li>Correlation implies causation <ul><li><i><a href="/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation" title="Correlation does not imply causation">Cum hoc</a></i></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc" title="Post hoc ergo propter hoc">Post hoc</a></i></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy" title="Gambler's fallacy">Gambler's</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Inverse_gambler%27s_fallacy" title="Inverse gambler's fallacy">Inverse</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Regression_fallacy" title="Regression fallacy">Regression</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_the_single_cause" title="Fallacy of the single cause">Single cause</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Slippery_slope" title="Slippery slope">Slippery slope</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy" title="Texas sharpshooter fallacy">Texas sharpshooter</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Appeals</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_the_law" title="Appeal to the law">Law/Legality</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_the_stone" title="Appeal to the stone">Stone</a> / <a href="/wiki/Proof_by_assertion" title="Proof by assertion">Proof by assertion</a></li></ul> </div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_consequences" title="Appeal to consequences">Consequences</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><i><a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_baculum" title="Argumentum ad baculum">Argumentum ad baculum</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wishful_thinking" title="Wishful thinking">Wishful thinking</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_emotion" title="Appeal to emotion">Emotion</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Think_of_the_children" title="Think of the children">Children</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_fear" title="Appeal to fear">Fear</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_flattery" title="Appeal to flattery">Flattery</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_novelty" title="Appeal to novelty">Novelty</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_pity" title="Appeal to pity">Pity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_ridicule" title="Appeal to ridicule">Ridicule</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/In-group_favoritism" title="In-group favoritism">In-group favoritism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Invented_here" title="Invented here">Invented here</a> / <a href="/wiki/Not_invented_here" title="Not invented here">Not invented here</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Island_mentality" title="Island mentality">Island mentality</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_loyalty" title="Appeal to loyalty">Loyalty</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Parade_of_horribles" title="Parade of horribles">Parade of horribles</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_spite" class="mw-redirect" title="Appeal to spite">Spite</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flag-waving" title="Flag-waving">Stirring symbols</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wisdom_of_repugnance" title="Wisdom of repugnance">Wisdom of repugnance</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Genetic_fallacy" title="Genetic fallacy">Genetic fallacy</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th id="Ad_hominem18" scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><i><a href="/wiki/Ad_hominem" title="Ad hominem">Ad hominem</a></i></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_motive" title="Appeal to motive">Appeal to motive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Association_fallacy" title="Association fallacy">Association</a> <ul><li><i><a href="/wiki/Reductio_ad_Hitlerum" title="Reductio ad Hitlerum">Reductio ad Hitlerum</a></i> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Godwin%27s_law" title="Godwin's law">Godwin's law</a></li></ul></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Red-baiting" title="Red-baiting">Reductio ad Stalinum</a></i></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bulverism" title="Bulverism">Bulverism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Poisoning_the_well" title="Poisoning the well">Poisoning the well</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tone_policing" title="Tone policing">Tone</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Tu_quoque" title="Tu quoque">Tu quoque</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Whataboutism" title="Whataboutism">Whataboutism</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Argument_from_authority" title="Argument from authority">Authority</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_accomplishment" title="Appeal to accomplishment">Accomplishment</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Ipse_dixit" title="Ipse dixit">Ipse dixit</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_lazarum" title="Argumentum ad lazarum">Poverty</a> / <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_crumenam" title="Argumentum ad crumenam">Wealth</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Etymological_fallacy" title="Etymological fallacy">Etymology</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_nature" title="Appeal to nature">Nature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_tradition" title="Appeal to tradition">Tradition</a> / <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_novelty" title="Appeal to novelty">Novelty</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Chronological_snobbery" title="Chronological snobbery">Chronological snobbery</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Other <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_relevance" class="mw-redirect" title="Fallacy of relevance">fallacies<br /> of relevance</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th id="Arguments13" scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Argument" title="Argument">Arguments</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><i><a href="/wiki/Ad_nauseam" title="Ad nauseam">Ad nauseam</a></i> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Sealioning" title="Sealioning">Sealioning</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Argument_from_anecdote" title="Argument from anecdote">Argument from anecdote</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Argument_from_silence" title="Argument from silence">Argument from silence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Argument_to_moderation" title="Argument to moderation">Argument to moderation</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum" title="Argumentum ad populum">Argumentum ad populum</a></i></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Clich%C3%A9" title="Cliché">Cliché</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/The_Four_Great_Errors" title="The Four Great Errors">The Four Great Errors</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/I%27m_entitled_to_my_opinion" title="I'm entitled to my opinion">I'm entitled to my opinion</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Irrelevant_conclusion" title="Irrelevant conclusion">Ignoratio elenchi</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Invincible_ignorance_fallacy" title="Invincible ignorance fallacy">Invincible ignorance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Moralistic_fallacy" title="Moralistic fallacy">Moralistic</a> / <a href="/wiki/Naturalistic_fallacy" title="Naturalistic fallacy">Naturalistic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy" title="Motte-and-bailey fallacy">Motte-and-bailey fallacy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Psychologist%27s_fallacy" title="Psychologist's fallacy">Psychologist's fallacy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rationalization_(psychology)" title="Rationalization (psychology)">Rationalization</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Red_herring" title="Red herring">Red herring</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Two_wrongs_make_a_right" class="mw-redirect" title="Two wrongs make a right">Two wrongs make a right</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Special_pleading" title="Special pleading">Special pleading</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Straw_man" title="Straw man">Straw man</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span title="Category"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/16px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/23px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/31px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png 2x" 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