冯梦晓 - 经济观察网 - 专业财经新闻网站

<!DOCTYPE html> <html> <head> <title>冯梦晓 - 经济观察网 - 专业财经新闻网站</title> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" /> <meta name="keywords" content="经济观察网，经济观察报，电子报纸,电子杂志,财经媒体,观察家,eeo" /> <meta name="description" content="经济观察网是《经济观察报》社倾力制作的全新商业资讯平台,经济观察网冷静理智的报道风格,并糅合最新的网络技术,拥有专业的采编力量以及独家的新闻报道,为您提供及时、便捷、专业的信息服务。" /> <meta name="title" content="专业财经新闻网站" /> <meta name="baidu_union_verify" content="408775e14748f2475adb9911f2990a33"> <meta name="verify-v1" content="sOT5jBB7T1adQvvYvFvIAJjqInu6Fpl4IrxQY8xmP24=" /> <meta name="verify-v1" content="lbQxqJs+JxJUrmb7XAyfA+xUenItwC4DR5OqyhpVXd4=" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://img.eeo.com.cn/pc/css/style.css" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://img.eeo.com.cn/2023/css/style.css" /> <script src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/pc/js/jquery-1.9.1.min.js" type="text/javascript" charset="utf-8"></script> <script src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/pc/js/jquery.SuperSlide.2.1.1.js" type="text/javascript" charset="utf-8"></script>  <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cbjs.baidu.com/js/m.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> BAIDU_CLB_preloadSlots("250347","250342","250343","250344","250345","250346"); </script> </head> <body class="index">  <div class="head"> <div class="head_main"> <div class="logo"> <img src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/2024/images/logo.jpg" /> </div> <div class="user"> <p> <a class="fg_logo" href="https://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=panel&action=profile" id="nickname"></a> <a class="tc_logo_dl fg_logo">退出</a> <a href="https://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=index&action=card" target="_blank">激活卡</a> <a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/epaper/eeocover/jjgcb/1.shtml" target="_blank">电子版</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" id="card"><img src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/2024/images/card.png" style="width: 16px; height: 16px; margin-bottom: 3px;"> 购物车</a> <a href="https://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=index&action=register" target="_blank" class="xd-logo-l">注册</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" class="login_dl xd-logo-l">登录</a></p> <img src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/2024/images/top_qrcode.png" /> </div> <div class="nav_btn"> <img src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/2023/images/menu-button.png" /> </div> </div> </div> <script type="text/javascript"> $('#card').click(function(){ var localStorageUrl = 'https://jg-mvvm.eeo.com.cn/cart'; if ($.cookie(COOKIE_PRE+'auth')) { window.location.href = localStorageUrl; } else { $(".overlay").show(); $(".modal").show(); $("#login_css").addClass("zoomInDown"); localStorage.setItem("localStorageUrl", localStorageUrl); } }) </script>  <div id="login_css" class="modal pop_login animated" style="top: 135px; left:50%; margin-left: -210px; display: none; "> <div class="p_b_bd "> <div class="img_logo_wp"> <img src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/pc/images/logo.png" alt=""> </div> <div class="tb_wpb"> <div class="hd"> <h3> <p class="ts_p"><span class="login_active one">用户名登录</span>/<span class="two">手机号登录</span></p> <p class="pay_b_logo" style="">还没有账号？<a href="https://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=index&action=register" title="" class="text_cite">免费注册</a></p> </h3> </div> <div class="bd bd_bg fs login_showz"> <p id="al_warn" class="in_box_cite color_red" style="display: none;"></p> <div class="in_box"> <label for="username" style="" ></label> <input class="in_txt" id="username" type="text" name="username" required="required" placeholder="用户名："/> </div> <div class="in_box"> <label for="password" ></label> <input name="password" value="" class="in_txt" id="password" required="required" type="password" placeholder="密码" > </div> <div class="in_box in_boxa" style="display:block;"> </div> <div class="pay_btn"> <input class="login_dl_pd" type="submit" value="登录" /> </div> <a href="https://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=index&action=wxqrlogin" style="color: white"> <div style="color: #f6f6f6;background: #1dad17;position: relative;display: flex;padding: 12px 20px;font-size: 18px;justify-content: center;border-radius: 3px;" class="wechat-login qxjg"> <img style="display: block;margin-right: 0.4rem;height: 20px;" src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/pc/images/wx_login_icon.png" alt=""> 微信注册或登录 </div> </a> <p class="pay_a_logo"><a href="https://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=index&action=resetpwd" title="忘记密码？" target="_blank" class="text_cite">忘记密码？</a></p> <div style="height: 20px; width: 100%; clear: both;"></div> </div> <div class="bd bd_bg ft" id="login_phone"> <p id="al_warn2" class="in_box_cite color_red" style="display: none;"></p> <div class="in_box"> <label for="username2" style="" ></label> <input class="in_txt" id="username2" type="text" name="username2" required="required" placeholder="手机号："/> </div> <div class="in_box" style="overflow: hidden;"> <label for="register_seccode" style="" ></label> <input class="in_txt" id="register_seccode" type="text" name="seccode" required="required" placeholder="随机验证码：" style="height:6px;width: 200px;float: left;" /> <img src="http://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=system&controller=seccode&action=image" id="seccodeimg2" onclick="this.src='http://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=system&controller=seccode&action=image&id='+Math.random()*5;" style="cursor:pointer;padding:0;margin-top:0;border:none; height: 40px;width: 100px;float: right;"/> </div> <div class="in_box" style="overflow: hidden;"> <label for="password" ></label> <input name="password2" value="" class="in_txt" id="password2" style="height:6px;width: 200px;float: left;" required="required" type="text" placeholder="验证码" > <input id="mobile_send1" value="发送短信码" style="padding:0;margin-top:0;border:none; height: 40px;color: #fff; background-color: #bbbbbb;width: 100px;float: right;" disable="disable" class="fl-r submit disable button1" type="button"> </div> <div class="in_box in_boxa" style="display:block;"> <p class="pay_a_logo"><a href="https://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=index&action=resetpwd" title="忘记密码？" target="_blank" class="text_cite">忘记密码？</a></p> </div> <div class="pay_btn"> <div class="code_tj" style=" background: #e31e27 none repeat scroll 0 0;border-radius: 3px;color: #fff;display: inline-block;font: 18px/45px 微软雅黑;height: 45px;position: relative;text-align: center;width: 100%;border: 0;">登录</div> </div> <a href="https://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=index&action=wxqrlogin" style="color: white"> <div style="color: #f6f6f6;background: #1dad17;position: relative;display: flex;padding: 12px 20px;font-size: 18px;justify-content: center;border-radius: 3px;" class="wechat-login qxjg"> <img style="display: block;margin-right: 0.4rem;height: 20px;" src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/pc/images/wx_login_icon.png" alt=""> 微信注册或登录 </div> </a> </div> </div> <a id="log_close" class="p_b_close" title="关闭" href="javascript:void(0);">关闭</a> </div> </div> <div class="overlay" style=" display: none;"></div> <script src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/2023/js/login.js" type="text/javascript" charset="utf-8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/js/config.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/js/lib/jquery.cookie.js"></script>  <script type="text/javascript"> var http_protocol = document.location.protocol; $("#login_css .ts_p .one").click(function () { $(this).addClass("login_active").siblings("span").removeClass("login_active"); $("#login_css .fs").addClass("login_showz").siblings(".ft").removeClass("login_showz"); }) $("#login_css .ts_p .two").click(function () { $(this).addClass("login_active").siblings("span").removeClass("login_active"); $("#login_css .ft").addClass("login_showz").siblings(".fs").removeClass("login_showz"); }) $('#login_phone .code_tj').click(function(){ var username2= $("input[name=username2]").val(); var password2 = $("input[name=password2]").val(); if (!username2) { $('#al_warn2').text('*请输入手机号'); $("#al_warn2").show(); return false; } if (!password2) { $('#al_warn2').text('*请输入验证码'); $('#al_warn2').show(); return false; } $.ajax({ dataType:'jsonp', type:'get', data:{'username2' : username2,'password2':password2,jsonp_callback1:'jsonp_callback1'}, url:http_protocol+'//app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=index&action=codelogin', success:function(res){ } }) }) var getRequest = true; // 是否请求验证码 $('#mobile_send1').click(function(){ if ($(this).attr('disable') == 'disable' && !getRequest) { return false; } var mobileNum = $('#username2').val(); if (!mobileNum) { $('#username2').parent().addClass('border-red'); $('#al_warn2').text('*请输入手机号'); $("#al_warn2").show(); return false; }else{ $("#al_warn2").hide(); } if (getRequest) { $.ajax({ dataType:'jsonp', type:'get', data:{'mobilenumber' : parseInt($('#username2').val()),'seccode':$('#register_seccode').val(),jsonp_callback:'jsonp_callback'}, url:http_protocol+'//app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=index&action=sendmessages', success:function(res){ } }) } }); function jsonp_callback(res){ if (res.state) { $('#seccodeimg2').click(); var waitTime = 60; var timer = setInterval(function(){ $('#mobile_send1').addClass('disable').attr('disable', 'disable'); $('#mobile_send1').val(--waitTime +'重新获取'); if (waitTime == 0) { clearInterval(timer); $('#mobile_send1').removeClass('disable').css('cursor','pointer').attr('disable', '').val('重新获取'); getRequest = true; } }, 1000); getRequest = false; alert(res.message); } else { alert(res.error); } } function jsonp_callback1(res){ if (res.state==true) { window.location.href =http_protocol+'//app.eeo.com.cn/?app=memberpay&controller=index&action=eeoepaper'; return false; } else { alert(res.error); window.location.reload(); return false; } } </script>  <div class="nav"> <div class="nav_main"> <ul> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn">首页</a></li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/shangyechanye/">商业产业</a> <div class="sub_nav"> <dl> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/shangyechanye/dashi/">大事</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/shangyechanye/huanbao/">环保</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/shangyechanye/xiaofei/">消费</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/shangyechanye/zhizao/">制造</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/shangyechanye/nycl/">能源材料</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/shangyechanye/jkyl/">健康养老</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/shangyechanye/jiaoyu/">教育</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/shangyechanye/wenlvyule/">文旅娱乐</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/shangyechanye/cyjbj/">创业家笔记</a></dd> </dl> </div> </li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/caijing/">财经</a> <div class="sub_nav"> <dl> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/caijing/zhengquan/">证券</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/caijing/kechuangban/">科创板</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/caijing/yinxing/">银行</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/caijing/baoxian/">保险</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/caijing/zhaishi/">债市</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/caijing/dzsp/">大宗商品</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/caijing/ziben/">资本</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/caijing/PEchuangtou/">PE/创投</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/caijing/caifu/">财富</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/caijing/jrkj/">金融科技</a></dd> </dl> </div> </li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/ssgsn/">上市公司</a></li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/dichan/">地产</a> <div class="sub_nav"> <dl> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/dichan/zhuzhai/">住宅</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/dichan/wuye/">物业</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/dichan/shangye/">商业</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/dichan/jiazhuang/">家装</a></dd> </dl> </div> </li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/qiche/">汽车</a> <div class="sub_nav"> <dl> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/qiche/xycy/">行业产业</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/qiche/qccp/">汽车产品</a></dd> </dl> </div> </li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/tmt/">TMT</a> <div class="sub_nav"> <dl> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/tmt/xinnengyuan/">新科技</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/tmt/dianshang/">互联网</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/tmt/wuliu/">O2O</a></dd> </dl> </div> </li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/pinglun/">评论</a> <div class="sub_nav"> <dl> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/pinglun/guandian/">观点</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/pinglun/sixiang/">思想</a></dd> </dl> </div> </li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/yingxiao/">营销</a> <div class="sub_nav"> <dl> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/yingxiao/pinpaijianshe/">品牌建设</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/yingxiao/guanggaogongsi/">广告公司</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/yingxiao/hulianwanggongsi/">互联网公司</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/yingxiao/meijie/">媒介</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/yingxiao/guojiguanggao/">国际广告</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/yingxiao/gana/">戛纳</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/yingxiao/yanjiuyuanxd/">研究院</a></dd> </dl> </div> </li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/shipin/">视频</a></li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/yanjiuyuan/">研究院</a> <div class="sub_nav"> <dl> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/yanjiuyuan/glycxalyjy/">管理与创新案例研究院</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/yanjiuyuan/hgjjyjy/">宏观经济研究院</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/yanjiuyuan/csyzfswyjy/">城市与政府事务研究院</a></dd> </dl> </div> </li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/jijin/">基金</a> <div class="sub_nav"> <dl> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/jijin/jijinzixun/">基金资讯</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/jijin/jijinshuju/">基金数据</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/jijin/renshidongtai/">人事动态</a></dd> <dd><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/jijin/jijintoujiao/">基金投教</a></dd> </dl> </div> </li> <li>|</li> <li class="text"><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/eeo/esg/">ESG·碳</a></li> </ul> <div class="search"> <a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/search/index.shtml" target="_blank"> <img src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/2023/images/search_icon.jpg"> </a> </div> </div> </div>  <div class="xd-jzjs main"> <div class="xd-jzjs-a"> <img src="http://upload.eeo.com.cn/2021/0615/thumb_189_253_1623726593816.jpg " alt="冯梦晓" /> <div> <span><b>冯梦晓</b>经济观察报专栏作家</span> <p>中储棉花信息中心总经济师曾从事土地经济管理、金融评论及宏观经济分析，曾任北京斯密经济研究所副所长，进入棉花行业后，致力于宏观经济对棉花市场影响的研究工作。独立评价国内外经济、金融市场形势。2018年参加国家粮食与物资储备局举办的改革开放40周年征文活动，撰文《棉花储备改革与机制化研究》获得一等奖。近年来，连续参与了《中国棉花年度预警报告》</p> <p class="xd-p"><em>文章量 2</em><em>阅读量 17163</em> <a href="javascript:guanzhuspace(1407)"><img src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/pc/images/xd-dingyue.png" alt="" />订阅</a></p> </div> <em class="xd-c"></em> <ul class="xd-xw-list" id="lyp_article"> <li><a href="http://www.eeo.com.cn/2021/0615/491550.shtml"> <span>警惕并提早应对：大宗商品超级行情对中国经济的冲击</span> <p>应对疫情危机步入中后期，大宗商品行情高点刷新历史记录，这一幕与2010年二季度惊人相似。现在是抑制大宗商品行情升级为超级行情的关键时期，机会稍纵即逝。</p></a> </li> </ul> <input type='hidden' id='catid_lyp' value="1407" /> <input type='hidden' id='page_lyp' value="" /> <div class="xd-xl" id="loadLyp" onclick="javascript:getMoreArticle()"> 继续下拉显示更多 </div> </div> </div> <script type="text/javascript"> //点击加载更多 function getMoreArticle(){ var page = document.getElementById('page_lyp').value; if(page==null||page==""){ page = 1; } page++; var spaceid = 0; spaceid = document.getElementById('catid_lyp').value; //alert(page); $.getJSON('https://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=space&controller=index&action=getMoreAuthorArticle&jsoncallback=?&spaceid='+spaceid+'&page='+page, function(data){ console.log(data); if(data!=null && data!=""){ var articleArr = data; document.getElementById('page_lyp').value=data[0]['page']; //alert(articleArr); //alert(data.url); for(var i in articleArr){ var lypUrl= articleArr[i].url; var lypTitle = articleArr[i].title; var lypDescription = articleArr[i].description; var lypList=""; lypList = "<li><a href=\""+lypUrl+"\"><span>"+lypTitle+"</span><p>"+lypDescription+"</p></a></li>" $('#lyp_article').append(lypList); } }else{ alert("您已到达尽头！"); } }) } function guanzhuspace(data){ var data = data; $.getJSON('https://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=hfive&controller=hfive&action=guanzhuspace&jsoncallback=?&id='+data+'&jt=1', function(data){ if(data.status == 1){ alert(data.msg); location.reload() ; }else if(data.status == 2){ if(confirm('请登录后再订阅')) { window.location.href="http://app.eeo.com.cn/?app=member&controller=index&action=login"; } }else{ alert(data.msg); } }) } </script>  <div class="foot"> <div class="foot_main"> <div class="foot_logo"> <img src="http://img.eeo.com.cn/pc/images/xd-logo-a.png" alt=""> </div> <ul> <li>地址：北京理工大学国防科技园2号楼4层</li> <li>邮编：100081 电话：4001560066 传真：86-10-88510872</li> <li>违法和不良信息举报电话：010-60910566</li> <li>举报邮箱：jubao@eeo.com.cn</li> <li id="copyrightYear">Copyright @ 经济观察网 2001-<span id="thisYear">2024</span></li> <li> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.beian.miit.gov.cn">京ICP备18019893号</a> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.beian.gov.cn/portal/registerSystemInfo?recordcode=11010802028547"> <img src="http://img.eeo.com.cn/pc/images/gadh.png" /> <span>京公网安备 11010802028547号</span> </a> </li> <li>广播电视节目制作经营许可证 (京)字第12950号</li> <li>增值电信业务经营许可证 B2-20214402</li> <li>京网文[2024]1990-097号</li> <li><a target="_blank" href="https://xyt.xcc.cn/getpcInfo?sn=1557666160340566016&language=CN&certType=8&url=*.eeo.com.cn"><img src="https://xyt.xcc.cn/img/icon/icon8.png" id="img_smv_tem_25_12" style="width: 105px; height: 35px;"></li> </ul> <ul style="height: 120px;"> <li><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/aboutus/banquan.html">版权声明 Copyright</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/aboutus/lianxi.html">联系我们 Contact Us</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/aboutus/aboutus.html">关于我们 About Us</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/friendlink/">友情链接 Links</a></li> </ul> <ul style="border: 0;height: 120px;"> <li><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/aboutus/job.html">经观招聘 EEO Jobs</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/epaper/eeocover/jjgcb/1.shtml">订购中心 Subscribe</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.eeo.com.cn/aboutus/published.html">广告刊例 Advertising</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </body> <script src="https://img.eeo.com.cn/2023/js/main.js" type="text/javascript"></script> </html>

CINXE.COM

冯梦晓 - 经济观察网 - 专业财经新闻网站