李忠双：“供强需弱”导致冷、热轧卷板价格下跌-我的钢铁网

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<p>据李忠双介绍，这段时间，我国冷、热轧卷板市场基本处在下行通道中，且价格跌幅不小。以上海市场为例，鞍钢产1.0毫米冷板ST12报价从3月1日的4810元/吨跌至3月14日的4660元/吨，在近半个月的时间里下跌150元/吨；首钢、鞍钢产5.5毫米～11.75毫米×1500毫米×C热卷Q235B报价从3月1日的3910元/吨跌至3月14日的3750元/吨，累计下跌160元/吨。</p> <p>“从近期冷、热轧卷板市场交易状况来看，商家普遍感到生意冷淡。”李忠双表示，由于春节后部分下游企业尚未全面复产，2月份钢材销量下降，钢贸商销售不畅、出货困难。有的商家为求销量、消化库存，在成交价上给予优惠，导致钢材价格暗降现象较为明显。回顾2月份，上海市场的5.5毫米热轧卷板价格从2月1日的4010元/吨跌至2月29日的3920元/吨，累计下跌90元/吨；1.0毫米<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>卷板价格从2月1日的4700元/吨跌至2月29日的4660元/吨，累计下跌40元/吨。</p> <p>对于后市行情，李忠双认为，短期内冷、热轧卷板市场或难有明显起色，价格或进一步下跌。他认为，根本原因在于当前市场“供强需弱”。</p> <p>一方面，从需求情况来看，受春节假期及天气因素影响，2月份下游用钢企业产销数据下滑。例如，汽车行业在今年2月份第二周、第三周的新车销量及客流量大幅下降。此外，2月中旬，河南、湖北等地的大雪和冻雨天气也对汽车销量产生了一定影响，导致2月份汽车零售量低于预期，汽车库存增多。根据中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期“中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查”显示，2月份中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为64.1%，同比上升6个百分点，环比上升4.2个百分点。这说明当前汽车流通行业并不在景气区间。</p> <p>进入3月份，汽车市场销售状况虽不及预期，但转暖迹象显现。乘用车市场信息联席会数据显示，3月上旬，我国乘用车市场零售量达到35.5万辆，同比增长4%，较2月上旬下降4%；今年初以来累计零售量达到349.7万辆，同比增长16%。同期，我国乘用车厂商批发量达到35.7万辆，同比下降2%，较2月上旬增长50%；今年初以来累计批发量达到375.7万辆，同比增长10%。</p> <p>新能源汽车方面，3月上旬，我国新能源汽车市场零售量达到15.4万辆，同比增长39%，较2月上旬增长64%；今年初以来累计零售量达到121.4万辆，同比增长38%。同期，我国乘用车厂商新能源汽车批发量达到15万辆，同比增长24%，较2月上旬增长93%；今年初以来累计批发量达到128.6万辆，同比增长28%。</p> <p>家电市场方面，以家用空调为例，业内机构监测数据显示，2024年3月份，我国家用空调总排产量达到2032.0万台，同比增长21.6%。其中，内销排产1088.0万台，同比增长17.6%；出口排产944.0万台，同比增长26.5%。</p> <p>李忠双表示，随着后期下游行业对冷、热轧卷板消耗量的增多，冷、热轧卷板市场价格有望止跌企稳。</p> <p>另一方面，从供给情况来看，供给缩减、库存释放不及预期。中国钢铁工业协会数据显示，3月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业累计生产粗钢2057.98万吨、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0305-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>生铁</a>1843.76万吨、钢材1927.62万吨。其中，粗钢日均产量达到205.80万吨，旬环比下降3.38%，同比下降4.36%；生铁日均产量达到184.38万吨，旬环比下降1.82%，同口下降3.97%；钢材日均产量达到192.76万吨，旬环比下降6.65%，同比下降4.81%。“虽然供给端出现缩减态势，但缩减幅度与需求降幅仍不适配。”李忠双说道。</p> <p>另据业内机构统计，截至3月上旬，全国35个主要市场的钢材库存总量为1778.92万吨，环比增加40.39万吨，增幅为2.32%。其中，热轧卷板库存量为350.81万吨，环比增加8.96万吨，增幅为2.62%；冷轧卷板库存量为157.60万吨，环比减少0.12万吨，降幅为0.08%。同时，钢企库存也在增加。数据显示，截至3月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存总量约为1952.39万吨，环比增加150.4万吨，增幅为8.35%。</p> <p>李忠双分析道，“供强需弱”导致近期冷、热轧卷板市场价格进一步下跌，待后期市场供需面迎来新突破口，钢材价格整体才有望企稳向上。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-326-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a 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李忠双：“供强需弱”导致冷、热轧卷板价格下跌-我的钢铁网