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class="easy-breadcrumb_segment-separator"> » </span> <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"> <span itemscope itemprop="item" itemtype="http://schema.org/Thing" itemid="#4"> <span class="easy-breadcrumb_segment easy-breadcrumb_segment-title" itemprop="name">Crisis in car country</span> </span> <meta itemprop="position" content="4" /> </span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </header> </div> <div id="page"> <div id="main"> <div id="left-content"> <div id="content" class="column" role="main"> <a id="main-content"></a> <article class="node-780218 node node-analysis node-promoted view-mode-full view-mode-full clearfix" about="/en/financial-models/europe/analysis/crisis-car-country" typeof="sioc:Item foaf:Document" data-uid="11785" data-contentGroup1="auteur-Yves-Helven"> <header> <span property="dc:title" content="Crisis in car country" class="rdf-meta element-hidden"></span> </header> <div class="required-fields group-image field-group-html-element"><div class="field-ct field-ct-transliterated field-ct-analysis">Analysis</div><div class="field field-name-field-image field-type-image field-label-hidden "> <div class="field-item even field-item-first field-item-last field-item-0"><div style="background-image: url("https://www.globalfleet.com/sites/default/files/styles/headlines_width_850/public/field/image/shutterstock_1892292172_1.jpg?itok=aj6zxYWS");" class="single-image-background"></div></div> </div><div class="addthis-wrapper"> <div class="addthis_inline_share_toolbox" data-url="" data-title="Crisis in car country" data-description="The German car industry is in the midst of a profound crisis, driven by the rapid transition to electric mobility and external competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers. This shift,..." data-media="https://www.globalfleet.com/sites/default/files/field/image/shutterstock_1892292172_1.jpg"> </div> <div class="label-share"> <span>Share</span> </div> </div> </div><div class="required-fields group-content field-group-html-element"><div class="field field-name-field-published-date field-type-datetime field-label-hidden "> <div class="field-item even field-item-first field-item-last field-item-0"><span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2024-09-22T10:15:00+02:00">22 Sep 24</span></div> </div><div class="field field-name-title-field field-type-text field-label-hidden "> <div class="field-item even field-item-first field-item-last field-item-0"><h1>Crisis in car country</h1> </div> </div><div class="field field-name-field-tags field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-hidden multiple "> <div class="field-item even field-item-first field-item-0"><a href="/en/tags/germany" typeof="skos:Concept" property="rdfs:label skos:prefLabel" datatype="">Germany</a></div> <div class="field-item odd field-item-1"><a href="/en/tags/bevs" typeof="skos:Concept" property="rdfs:label skos:prefLabel" datatype="">BEVs</a></div> <div class="field-item even field-item-last field-item-2"><a href="/en/tags/incentives" typeof="skos:Concept" property="rdfs:label skos:prefLabel" datatype="">Incentives</a></div> </div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden "> <div class="field-item even field-item-first field-item-last field-item-0" property="content:encoded"> <p><span><span>The German car industry is in the midst of a profound crisis, driven by the rapid transition to electric mobility and external competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers. This shift, coupled with important structural issues, has left major automakers like Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz struggling to adapt. Recent reports highlight the challenges facing Germany’s automotive giants, particularly weak electric vehicle (EV) sales, shrinking profitability, and <a href="https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2024/09/09/lock-out-at-carmaker-audi-in-vorst-as-plant-closure-looms/" target="_blank">looming factory closures</a>. Government initiatives, such as the reintroduction of scrapping incentives, are being discussed as potential solutions to stimulate demand and alleviate the crisis.</span></span></p> <h3><span><span>Collapse of EV sales</span></span></h3> <p><span><span>A significant driver behind the crisis is the sharp decline in electric vehicle sales following the withdrawal of government subsidies in Germany. These incentives were vital in encouraging consumers to switch from traditional combustion engines to EVs. Once the subsidies were withdrawn, demand dropped, causing an immediate impact on automakers already burdened with the high costs of transitioning to electric mobility. The result has been reduced sales across the board, with carmakers forced to revise profit forecasts and consider drastic measures, including plant closures.</span></span></p> <p><span><span>Without the financial support provided by government incentives, EVs have become less attractive to consumers, particularly in the mass market, where high upfront costs and limited charging infrastructure continue to deter buyers. This has created a severe imbalance, with manufacturers investing heavily in the EV transition, but without the market demand to match these efforts.</span></span></p> <h3><span><span>Scrapping incentives: a potential lifeline</span></span></h3> <p><span><span>One of the most discussed solutions to revive the automotive market is the introduction of new scrapping incentives. These would encourage consumers to trade in older combustion engine vehicles in exchange for bonuses when purchasing new electric cars. In essence, this approach would stimulate the market by reducing the financial burden on consumers, making EVs more affordable.</span></span></p> <p><span><span>The proposed incentives include a €6,000 bonus for scrapping a combustion engine vehicle and purchasing a new electric vehicle, and a €3,000 bonus for buying a used EV. This two-tier approach is designed to not only boost new car sales but also strengthen the used EV market, providing options for a wider demographic of buyers.</span></span></p> <h3><span><span>Social leasing programs: expanding access to EVs</span></span></h3> <p><span><span>In addition to scrapping incentives, there are proposals for social leasing programs aimed at low- and middle-income consumers. These programs, inspired by <a href="https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/new-energies/france/analysis/social-leasing-success-france-could-it-be-elsewhere?a=FJA05&t%5B0%5D=Leasing&curl=1" target="_blank">initiatives in France</a>, would provide state subsidies to reduce leasing costs for electric vehicles. By lowering the financial barrier to EV ownership, such a scheme could help expand the market to those who might otherwise be unable to afford the upfront costs of purchasing an electric car.</span></span></p> <p><span><span>Leasing programs offer a flexible solution to address one of the major obstacles to EV adoption: cost. By allowing consumers to access electric vehicles without large initial payments, and with the added benefit of state support, leasing can open the door for broader participation in the green transition. One caveat however: the social leasing program in France was underbudgeted, and an administrative nightmare. </span></span></p> <h3><span><span>Challenges to scrapping incentives</span></span></h3> <p><span><span>While scrapping incentives offer a potential lifeline, there are significant challenges to their implementation. Germany faces budgetary constraints, and reintroducing such incentives would require careful allocation of already limited resources. The abrupt end to EV subsidies was partly driven by the need to close a budget gap, and reintroducing similar financial support could strain government finances further.</span></span></p> <p><span><span>Moreover, any state aid must comply with European Union regulations, adding a layer of complexity to the process. There is also the risk that consumers will delay purchases in anticipation of new incentives, exacerbating the current sales slump in the short term while waiting for better financial conditions to materialize.</span></span></p> <h3><span><span>Broader structural issues</span></span></h3> <p><span><span>Beyond immediate sales concerns, the German car industry is facing fierce competition from Chinese manufacturers, who offer electric vehicles at significantly lower price points. Companies like <a href="https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/new-energies/europe/article/byd-wants-be-european-manufacturer?a=FJA05&t%5B0%5D=BYD&t%5B1%5D=EVs&t%5B2%5D=OEM&curl=1" target="_blank">BYD</a> have managed to capture a growing share of the European EV market by offering advanced technology at competitive prices. Scrapping incentives alone may not be enough to fend off this competition, and deeper structural changes within the German car industry may be necessary.</span></span></p> <p><span><span>This crisis also intersects with broader economic challenges facing Germany, such as aging infrastructure, underinvestment, and excessive regulation, as highlighted in a <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/03/27/germanys-real-challenges-are-aging-underinvestment-and-too-much-red-tape" target="_blank">recent IMF report</a>. According to the report, Germany’s economic woes are not confined to the automotive industry; they are symptoms of wider underinvestment in public infrastructure and over-regulation that hampers both innovation and the ease of doing business. These issues, combined with demographic pressures from an aging workforce, add to the difficulties of reviving the car industry and the broader economy.</span></span></p> <h3><span><span>An Integrated Approach</span></span></h3> <p><span><span>While the reintroduction of scrapping incentives and social leasing programs could provide much-needed short-term relief, the crisis in Germany’s car industry reflects deeper structural challenges. The industry is contending not only with the transition to electric mobility and competition from Chinese manufacturers but also with broader economic weaknesses such as underinvestment, an aging population, and excessive red tape. </span></span></p> <p><span><span>Germany’s policymakers must balance immediate measures like scrapping incentives with long-term reforms that address these underlying structural problems. Increasing public investment, reducing regulatory barriers, and improving infrastructure could enhance the industry’s competitiveness in the global market. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether the German automotive industry can recover in the face of these mounting challenges. But, as the Germans meet and reflect, their competitors move ahead.</span></span></p> <p><span><span><i>Picture Credit: Shutterstock 1892292172</i></span></span></p> </div> </div> <div class="author">Authored by: <b>Yves Helven</b></div><div class="field-regions-with-themes field-name-field-channels"></div></div><span property="dc:title" content="Crisis in car country" class="rdf-meta element-hidden"></span> </article> </div> <div class="region region-content-footer"> <div id="block-bean-marketplace-link" class="block block-bean"> <div class="entity entity-bean bean-block-image clearfix" about="/en/block/marketplace-link" typeof=""> <div class="content"> <div class="group-header field-group-div"><div class="field field-name-field-image field-type-image field-label-hidden "> <div class="field-item even field-item-first field-item-last field-item-0"><div style="background-image: 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