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<style>.tdm_block.tdm_block_socials{margin-bottom:0}.tdm-social-wrapper{*zoom:1}.tdm-social-wrapper:before,.tdm-social-wrapper:after{display:table;content:'';line-height:0}.tdm-social-wrapper:after{clear:both}.tdm-social-item-wrap{display:inline-block}.tdm-social-item{position:relative;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;-webkit-transition:all 0.2s;transition:all 0.2s;text-align:center;-webkit-transform:translateZ(0);transform:translateZ(0)}.tdm-social-item i{font-size:14px;color:var(--td_theme_color,#4db2ec);-webkit-transition:all 0.2s;transition:all 0.2s}.tdm-social-text{display:none;margin-top:-1px;vertical-align:middle;font-size:13px;color:var(--td_theme_color,#4db2ec);-webkit-transition:all 0.2s;transition:all 0.2s}.tdm-social-item-wrap:hover i,.tdm-social-item-wrap:hover .tdm-social-text{color:#000}.tdm-social-item-wrap:last-child .tdm-social-text{margin-right:0!important}</style> <style>.tdi_26 .tdm-social-item i{font-size:13px;vertical-align:middle}.tdi_26 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scoped>.tdi_32{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper{width:auto;height:auto}div.tdi_32{width:auto!important}.tdi_32{padding-right:0px!important}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="tdm_block td_block_wrap tdm_block_button tdi_33 tdm-content-horiz-right td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1" data-td-block-uid="tdi_33" > <style>.tdi_33{margin-left:0px!important}</style> <style></style> <style>body .tdi_34 .tdm-btn-text,body .tdi_34 i{color:var(--today-news-white-transparent)}body .tdi_34 svg{fill:var(--today-news-white-transparent)}body .tdi_34 svg *{fill:inherit}body .tdi_34:hover .tdm-btn-text,body .tdi_34:hover i{color:var(--today-news-white);-webkit-text-fill-color:unset;background:transparent;transition:none}body .tdi_34:hover svg{fill:var(--today-news-white)}body .tdi_34:hover svg 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<style>.tdm_block_column_title{margin-bottom:0;display:inline-block;width:100%}</style><div class="td-block-row"><div class="td-block-span12 tdm-col"> <style>body .tdc-row .tdi_48 .tdm-title{color:var(--today-news-white)}.tdc-row .tdi_48 .tdm-title{font-family:Montserrat!important;font-size:28px!important;line-height:1.2!important;font-weight:700!important;text-transform:uppercase!important;letter-spacing:-2px!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdc-row .tdi_48 .tdm-title{font-size:24px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdc-row .tdi_48 .tdm-title{font-size:22px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdc-row .tdi_48 .tdm-title{font-size:20px!important}}</style><div class="tds-title tds-title1 td-fix-index tdi_48 "><h3 class="tdm-title tdm-title-sm">Seleccione su opci贸n publicitaria</h3></div></div></div></div><div class="tdm_block td_block_wrap tdm_block_inline_text tdi_49 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1" data-td-block-uid="tdi_49" > 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class="td-pp-price-txt">0</div></div></div></div><div class="td_block_wrap tds_plans_description tdi_57 td_block_template_1" data-td-block-uid="tdi_57" data-type-from-block="free"> <style>.tdi_57{margin-bottom:20px!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_57{margin-bottom:15px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_57{margin-bottom:12px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_57{margin-bottom:15px!important}}</style> <style>.tds_plans_description{margin-bottom:0;vertical-align:top}.tds_plans_description .tds-block-inner{display:flex}.tds_plans_description .tds-plan-desc,.tds_plans_description .tds-pd-placeholder{font-family:var(--td_default_google_font_1,'Open Sans','Open Sans Regular',sans-serif);font-size:16px;line-height:28px}.tds_plans_description .tds-plan-desc{-webkit-transform:translateZ(0);transform:translateZ(0);width:100%;color:#666}.tds_plans_description .tds-show-plan-desc{display:none}.tds_plans_description 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td_block_template_1" data-td-block-uid="tdi_58" > <style>.tdi_58{margin-bottom:0px!important}</style> <style>.tds_plans_button .tds-block-inner{display:flex;flex-direction:column}.tds_plans_button .tds-plans-btn{position:relative;display:flex;align-items:center;background-color:var(--td_theme_color,#4db2ec);padding:14px 24px 15px;font-size:13px;line-height:1;color:#fff;border:0;outline:none;-webkit-appearance:none;-webkit-transition:all 0.3s ease;transition:all 0.3s ease;transform:translateZ(0)}.tds_plans_button .tds-plans-btn:before{content:'';position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;background-color:#222;opacity:0;transition:opacity 0.3s ease;z-index:-1}.tds_plans_button .tds-plans-btn:hover:before{opacity:1}.tds_plans_button .tds-plans-btn[disabled]{opacity:.7;pointer-events:none}.tds_plans_button .tds-pb-icon{position:relative}.tds_plans_button i{font-size:15px}.tds_plans_button svg{display:block;width:15px;height:auto}.tds_plans_button svg,.tds_plans_button svg 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.tds-plans-btn{font-size:11px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){body .tdc-row .tdi_58 .tds-plans-btn{padding:11px 13px 10px}body .tdc-row .tdi_58 .tds-plans-btn{font-size:12px!important}}</style><div class="tds-block-inner td-fix-index"><button class="tds-plans-btn tds-choose-plan-type tds-switcher-change" data-type="month" data-url-month="https://revistaenergiaynegocios.com/login-register-today-news-pro/?ref_url=aHR0cHM6Ly9yZXZpc3RhZW5lcmdpYXluZWdvY2lvcy5jb20vY2hlY2tvdXQtdG9kYXktbmV3cy1wcm8vP3BsYW5faWQ9MQ="><span class="tds-pb-txt">Elegir plan</span></button></div></div></div></div></div><div class="vc_column_inner tdi_60 wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-inner-column td-pb-span6"> <style scoped>.tdi_60{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_60 .vc_column-inner>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_60 .vc_column-inner>.wpb_wrapper .tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_60 .vc_column-inner>.wpb_wrapper .tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_60{margin-left:15px!important;padding-top:20px!important;padding-right:20px!important;padding-bottom:25px!important;padding-left:20px!important;position:relative}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_60{margin-left:10px!important;padding-top:15px!important;padding-right:15px!important;padding-bottom:20px!important;padding-left:15px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_60{margin-left:5px!important;padding-top:10px!important;padding-right:10px!important;padding-bottom:15px!important;padding-left:10px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_60{margin-left:0px!important;padding-top:10px!important;padding-right:10px!important;padding-bottom:15px!important;padding-left:10px!important}}</style> <div class="tdi_59_rand_style td-element-style" ><style>.tdi_59_rand_style{background-color:var(--today-news-white-transparent2)!important}</style></div><div class="vc_column-inner"><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="tdm_block td_block_wrap tdm_block_column_title tdi_61 tdm-content-horiz-center td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1" data-td-block-uid="tdi_61" > <style>.tdi_61{margin-bottom:10px!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_61{margin-bottom:7px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_61{margin-bottom:3px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_61{margin-bottom:7px!important}}</style><div class="td-block-row"><div class="td-block-span12 tdm-col"> <style>body .tdc-row .tdi_62 .tdm-title{color:var(--today-news-white)}.tdc-row .tdi_62 .tdm-title{font-family:Montserrat!important;font-size:17px!important;line-height:1.15!important;font-weight:700!important;text-transform:uppercase!important;letter-spacing:-0.5px!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdc-row .tdi_62 .tdm-title{font-size:13px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdc-row .tdi_62 .tdm-title{font-size:11px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdc-row .tdi_62 .tdm-title{font-size:13px!important}}</style><div class="tds-title tds-title1 td-fix-index tdi_62 "><h3 class="tdm-title tdm-title-sm">PLAN ANUAL</h3></div></div></div></div><div class="td_block_wrap tds_plans_price tdi_63 td_block_template_1" data-td-block-uid="tdi_63" data-type-from-block="year"> <style>.tdi_63{margin-bottom:5px!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_63{margin-bottom:3px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_63{margin-bottom:2px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_63{margin-bottom:3px!important}}</style> <style>.tdc-row .tdi_63{vertical-align:top}body .tdc-row .tdi_63 .tds-block-inner{justify-content:center}body .tdc-row .tdi_63 .tds-plans-price,body .tdc-row .tdi_63 .tds-pp-placeholder{color:var(--today-news-white);font-family:Montserrat!important;font-size:34px!important;line-height:1.2!important;font-weight:700!important;text-transform:uppercase!important;letter-spacing:-2px!important}@media 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class="tds-plan-desc" data-type="year">xxxxx</div></div></div><div class="td_block_wrap tds_plans_button tdi_65 td_block_template_1" data-td-block-uid="tdi_65" > <style>.tdi_65{margin-bottom:0px!important}</style> <style>body .tdc-row .tdi_65 .tds-plans-btn{padding:13px 15px 12px}body .tdc-row .tdi_65{display:block}body .tdc-row .tdi_65 .tds-block-inner{align-items:stretch;align-items:stretch}body .tdc-row .tdi_65 .tds-plans-btn{justify-content:center;color:var(--today-news-dark-bg);background:var(--today-news-white);font-family:Montserrat!important;font-size:13px!important;line-height:1.2!important;font-weight:700!important;text-transform:uppercase!important;letter-spacing:-0.5px!important}body .tdc-row .tdi_65 .tds-pb-icon{top:0px;margin:0 0 0 10px}body .tdc-row .tdi_65 svg,body .tdc-row .tdi_65 svg *{fill:var(--today-news-dark-bg)}body .tdc-row .tdi_65 .tds-plans-btn:before{background:var(--today-news-white-transparent)}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){body .tdc-row .tdi_65 .tds-plans-btn{padding:11px 13px 10px}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){body .tdc-row .tdi_65 .tds-plans-btn{padding:9px 10px}body .tdc-row .tdi_65 .tds-plans-btn{font-size:11px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){body .tdc-row .tdi_65 .tds-plans-btn{padding:11px 13px 10px}body .tdc-row .tdi_65 .tds-plans-btn{font-size:12px!important}}</style><div class="tds-block-inner td-fix-index"><button class="tds-plans-btn tds-choose-plan-type tds-switcher-change" data-type="year" data-url-year="https://revistaenergiaynegocios.com/login-register-today-news-pro/?ref_url=aHR0cHM6Ly9yZXZpc3RhZW5lcmdpYXluZWdvY2lvcy5jb20vY2hlY2tvdXQtdG9kYXktbmV3cy1wcm8vP3BsYW5faWQ9Mg=" ><span class="tds-pb-txt">Elegir plan</span></button></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="vc_row_inner tdi_67 vc_row vc_inner wpb_row td-pb-row" > <style scoped>.tdi_67{position:relative!important;top:0;transform:none;-webkit-transform:none}.tdi_67,.tdi_67 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(max-width:1140px){.tdi_69{padding-top:15px!important;padding-right:15px!important;padding-bottom:20px!important;padding-left:15px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_69{padding-top:10px!important;padding-right:10px!important;padding-bottom:15px!important;padding-left:10px!important}}</style> <div class="tdi_68_rand_style td-element-style" ><style>.tdi_68_rand_style{background-color:var(--today-news-white-transparent2)!important}</style></div><div class="vc_column-inner"><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="tdm_block td_block_wrap tdm_block_column_title tdi_70 tdm-content-horiz-left td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1" data-td-block-uid="tdi_70" > <style>.tdi_70{margin-bottom:10px!important;width:100%!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_70{margin-bottom:7px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_70{margin-bottom:3px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_70{margin-bottom:7px!important}}</style><div class="td-block-row"><div class="td-block-span12 tdm-col"> <style>body .tdc-row .tdi_71 .tdm-title{color:var(--today-news-white)}.tdc-row .tdi_71 .tdm-title{font-family:Montserrat!important;font-size:17px!important;line-height:1.15!important;font-weight:700!important;text-transform:uppercase!important;letter-spacing:-0.5px!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdc-row .tdi_71 .tdm-title{font-size:13px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdc-row .tdi_71 .tdm-title{font-size:11px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdc-row .tdi_71 .tdm-title{font-size:13px!important}}</style><div class="tds-title tds-title1 td-fix-index tdi_71 "><h3 class="tdm-title tdm-title-sm">Todos los planes incluyen</h3></div></div></div></div><div class="tdm_block td_block_wrap tdm_block_list tdi_72 tdm-content-horiz-left td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdm-list-with-icons" data-td-block-uid="tdi_72" > 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.tdm-list-item:nth-last-child(-n+1){margin-bottom:0!important}.tdc-row .tdi_72 .tdm-list-item{margin-bottom:8px;font-size:12px!important;line-height:1.2!important}.tdc-row .tdi_72 .tdm-list-item i{font-size:6px}.tdc-row .tdi_72 .tdm-list-item .tdm-list-icon{top:4px;margin-right:8px}}</style><div class="tdm-col td-fix-index"><ul class="tdm-list-items"><li class="tdm-list-item"><i class="tdm-list-icon td-icon-right-arrow"></i><span class="tdm-list-text">Donec sagittis elementum</span></li><li class="tdm-list-item"><i class="tdm-list-icon td-icon-right-arrow"></i><span class="tdm-list-text">Cras tempor massa</span></li><li class="tdm-list-item"><i class="tdm-list-icon td-icon-right-arrow"></i><span class="tdm-list-text">Mauris eget nulla ut</span></li><li class="tdm-list-item"><i class="tdm-list-icon td-icon-right-arrow"></i><span class="tdm-list-text">Maecenas nec mollis</span></li></ul></div></div><div class="tdm_block td_block_wrap tdm_block_list tdi_73 tdm-content-horiz-left 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(min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_106 .tdb-entry-category{padding:3px 7px 2px 5px}.tdi_106 .tdb-entry-category{margin:0 5px 0 0;font-size:11px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_106 .tdb-entry-category{padding:2px 6px 1px px}.tdi_106 .tdb-entry-category{margin:0 4px 0 0;font-size:11px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_106 .tdb-entry-category{padding:2px 6px 1px 4px}.tdi_106 .tdb-entry-category{margin:0 4px 0 0;font-size:11px!important}}</style><div class="tdb-category td-fix-index"><a class="tdb-entry-category" href="https://revistaenergiaynegocios.com/category/opinion/" ><span class="tdb-cat-bg"></span>Opini贸n</a></div></div><div class="vc_row_inner tdi_108 vc_row vc_inner wpb_row td-pb-row" > <style scoped>.tdi_108{position:relative!important;top:0;transform:none;-webkit-transform:none}.tdi_108,.tdi_108 .tdc-inner-columns{display:flex;flex-direction:row;flex-wrap:nowrap;justify-content:flex-start;align-items:stretch}.tdi_108 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(max-width:1018px){.tdi_111{margin-right:3px!important}}</style> <style>.tdi_111{text-align:left!important}.tdi_111 .tdm-descr{color:var(--today-news-dark-bg);font-family:Montserrat!important;font-size:13px!important;line-height:1.3!important;font-weight:500!important;text-transform:uppercase!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_111 .tdm-descr{font-size:12px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_111 .tdm-descr{font-size:11px!important;line-height:1.2!important}}</style><p class="tdm-descr">Publicado el</p></div><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_single_date tdi_112 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-post-meta" data-td-block-uid="tdi_112" > <style>.tdi_112{margin-bottom:0px!important}</style> <style>.tdb-post-meta{margin-bottom:16px;color:#444;font-family:'Open Sans','Open Sans Regular',sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:400;clear:none;vertical-align:middle;line-height:1}.tdb-post-meta span,.tdb-post-meta i,.tdb-post-meta time{vertical-align:middle}.tdb_single_date{line-height:30px}.tdb_single_date a{vertical-align:middle}.tdb_single_date .tdb-date-icon-svg{position:relative;line-height:0}.tdb_single_date svg{height:auto}.tdb_single_date svg,.tdb_single_date svg *{fill:#444}.tdi_112 svg{width:14px}.tdi_112 .tdb-date-icon{margin-right:5px}.tdi_112{color:var(--today-news-dark-bg);font-family:Montserrat!important;font-size:13px!important;line-height:1.3!important;font-weight:700!important;text-transform:uppercase!important}.tdi_112 svg,.tdi_112 svg *{fill:var(--today-news-dark-bg)}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_112{font-size:12px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_112{font-size:11px!important;line-height:1.2!important}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><time class="entry-date updated td-module-date" datetime="2018-10-01T07:09:08+00:00">1 octubre, 2018</time></div></div> </div></div></div><div class="vc_column_inner tdi_114 wpb_column 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.tdb-author-name{color:var(--today-news-accent);font-family:Montserrat!important;font-size:13px!important;line-height:1.3!important;font-weight:700!important;text-transform:uppercase!important}.tdi_115 .tdb-author-name:hover{color:var(--today-news-dark-bg)}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_115 .tdb-author-by{font-size:12px!important}.tdi_115 .tdb-author-name{font-size:12px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_115 .tdb-author-by{font-size:11px!important;line-height:1.2!important}.tdi_115 .tdb-author-name{font-size:11px!important;line-height:1.2!important}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><div class="tdb-author-name-wrap"><span class="tdb-author-by">Por</span> <a class="tdb-author-name" href="https://revistaenergiaynegocios.com/author/juan/">Redacci贸n</a></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="vc_column_inner tdi_117 wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-inner-column td-pb-span4"> <style 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.id_ad_content-horiz-left,.tdb_single_content .id_ad_content-horiz-right,.tdb_single_content .id_ad_content-horiz-center{margin:0 auto 26px auto}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdb_single_content .id_ad_content-horiz-left{margin-right:0}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdb_single_content .id_ad_content-horiz-right{margin-left:0}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdb_single_content .td-a-ad{float:none;text-align:center}.tdb_single_content .td-a-ad img{margin-right:auto;margin-left:auto}.tdb_single_content .tdc-a-ad{float:none}}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_135,.tdi_135>p,.tdi_135 .tdb-block-inner>p{font-size:16px!important;line-height:1.6!important}.tdi_135 h1{font-size:28px!important}.tdi_135 h2{font-size:24px!important}.tdi_135 h3:not(.tds-locker-title){font-size:20px!important}.tdi_135 h4{font-size:18px!important}.tdi_135 h5{font-size:17px!important}.tdi_135 h6{font-size:17px!important}.tdi_135 .tdb-block-inner blockquote p{font-size:24px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_135,.tdi_135>p,.tdi_135 .tdb-block-inner>p{font-size:15px!important;line-height:1.5!important}.tdi_135 h1{font-size:26px!important}.tdi_135 h2{font-size:22px!important}.tdi_135 h3:not(.tds-locker-title){font-size:18px!important}.tdi_135 h4{font-size:17px!important}.tdi_135 h5{font-size:16px!important}.tdi_135 h6{font-size:16px!important}.tdi_135 .tdb-block-inner blockquote p{font-size:22px!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_135,.tdi_135>p,.tdi_135 .tdb-block-inner>p{font-size:16px!important;line-height:1.6!important}.tdi_135 h1{font-size:28px!important}.tdi_135 h2{font-size:24px!important}.tdi_135 h3:not(.tds-locker-title){font-size:20px!important}.tdi_135 h4{font-size:18px!important}.tdi_135 h5{font-size:17px!important}.tdi_135 h6{font-size:17px!important}.tdi_135 .tdb-block-inner blockquote p{font-size:24px!important}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><p>Por Antonio Turiel Mart铆nez</p> <p>Fuente: http://crashoil.blogspot.com/2018/08/tasa-de-retorno-energetico-concepto.html</p> <p>Queridos lectores:</p> <p>Como hemos discutido en numerosas ocasiones en este聽<i>blog</i>, estamos en los albores de una crisis hist贸rica que,聽si no se trata adecuadamente,pone en peligro la continuidad de nuestra sociedad. Es un problema que ata帽e a la disponibilidad de los recursos energ茅ticos no renovables, es decir,聽el petr贸leo, el carb贸n, el gas natural y el uranio. Generalmente la gente piensa que los problemas con los recursos naturales comienzan en el momento que se acaban por completo, pero en realidad las dificultades comienzan mucho antes. Como es f谩cil de suponer, de todos los recursos los que primero se explotan son aqu茅llos a los que es m谩s f谩cil acceder y los que tienen mejor calidad, y solo cuando 茅stos se acaban se van considerando otros recursos, cada vez m谩s dif铆ciles de extraer y cada vez de peor calidad. Hay un momento cumbre, un punto crucial, en el que se est谩 produciendo tanto, y en el que lo que queda es tan complicado de explotar y de menor calidad, que, tanto si se quiere como si no, la producci贸n comienza a disminuir. Es el cenit del petr贸leo (tambi茅n conocido como pico del petr贸leo o peak oil), el cenit del carb贸n, el cenit del gas natural, el cenit del uranio… El cenit de producci贸n es ese momento transcendental en el que ya no se puede seguir aumentando la producci贸n y 茅sta tiene que ir bajando. No es una cuesti贸n de dinero, ni siquiera de tecnolog铆a – pues聽<a href="http://crashoil.blogspot.com.es/2012/06/tecnologia-no-es-energia.html">茅sta tiene unos l铆mites</a>,聽<a href="http://crashoil.blogspot.com/2011/02/que-es-la-energia.html">los de聽 la termodin谩mica</a>, que no pueden franquear. Cuando la producci贸n de petr贸leo, carb贸n, gas natural y uranio llega a su m谩ximo – y parece que ya estamos pr谩cticamente en ese momento – la producci贸n de energ铆a toca techo y comienza a disminuir (al principio m谩s despacio, luego m谩s r谩pidamente). Eso, en聽<a href="http://crashoil.blogspot.com/2017/04/elegia-del-crecentismo.html">un sistema econ贸mico como el nuestro, dise帽ado para crecer siempre</a>聽y que no puede funcionar si no crece,聽<a href="http://crashoil.blogspot.com/2012/11/una-entrevista-muy-singular.html">nos condena a decrecer</a>聽de una manera que no tiene por qu茅 ser agradable (aunque<a href="http://crashoil.blogspot.com/2013/08/apocalipsis-no.html">tampoco necesariamente catastr贸fica</a>).</p> <p>Si malo es que la producci贸n de energ铆a no renovable comience a decaer, peor a煤n es que la energ铆a neta que extraemos de ella caiga a煤n m谩s r谩pidamente. Por energ铆a neta nos referimos a la que se obtiene de una fuente, una vez hemos descontado la energ铆a que nos ha costado extraerla. Y es que, naturalmente, a medida que los recursos que quedan son peores hay que dedicarle m谩s energ铆a a su extracci贸n. As铆 pues, no solo decae la producci贸n bruta de energ铆a (el total producido) sino que m谩s deprisa a煤n lo hace la producci贸n neta (la parte disponible para la sociedad).</p> <p>Debido a ese m谩s r谩pido decaimiento de la energ铆a verdaderamente disponible, de la energ铆a neta, los estudiosos del problema de los recursos energ茅ticos hace ya alg煤n tiempo que pretenden divulgar este problema. Problema este, el de la r谩pida ca铆da del rendimiento neto, que, aunque no sea dif铆cil de entender, es m谩s complicado de explicar que el del cenit de producci贸n. Y es que cuando se comenz贸 a estudiar el rendimiento neto de las fuentes de energ铆a renovable se vio que, en muchos casos, los rendimientos eran mucho menores de lo esperado, y que incluso, bajo determinadas circunstancias, invertir en seg煤n qu茅 sistemas podr铆a ser un malgasto de recursos, ya que esas instalaciones renovables particulares no podr铆an recuperar la energ铆a invertida de manera satisfactoria.</p> <p>Es en este contexto que surge la necesidad de introducir par谩metros que caractericen la energ铆a neta producida por las fuentes de energ铆a, siendo el m谩s conocido de ellos la聽<a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasa_de_retorno_energ%C3%A9tico">Tasa de Retorno Energ茅tico</a>聽(TRE). El objetivo de la TRE, como el de cualquier otro par谩metro similar, es el de poder homogeneizar la informaci贸n de fuentes de energ铆a diversas, a fin de caracterizar si cualquiera de ellas es o no es 煤til para el abastecimiento de una sociedad industrial como la nuestra.</p> <p>Sucede, sin embargo, que la realidad f铆sica subyacente es muy compleja, es multidimiensional, mientras que la TRE es solo una de muchas dimensiones importantes. A pesar de ello, en algunas ocasiones, al discutir sobre la viabilidad de una sociedad futura basada en tal o en cual fuente de energ铆a, se cometen abusos importantes, tanto por parte de los que creen que la TRE lo describe todo y que si no se llega a ciertos valores no hay sociedad viable, como por parte de los que niegan la importancia de la TRE para valorar la utilidad de las fuentes de energ铆a.</p> <p>En los 煤ltimos a帽os se han escrito ensayos diversos analizando el concepto de la TRE y se帽alando sus limitaciones (por ejemplo, de聽<a href="http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=373">Carlos de Castro</a>聽o del grupo de聽<a href="http://autonomiaybienvivir.blogspot.com/2018/01/una-primera-critica-la-tasa-de-retorno.html">Autonom铆a y Buenvivir</a>). Dada que en los pr贸ximos a帽os sin duda cobrar谩 mucha importancia el concepto de energ铆a neta, y con el 谩nimo de ayudar en este debate necesario, me he tomado la libertad de escribir esta entrada en la que intentar茅 de una forma sistem谩tica, aunque sin realmente llegar a ser exhaustivo, delimitar y en la medida de lo posible aclarar algunas cuestiones sobre qu茅 es la TRE, para qu茅 se puede usar y para qu茅 no. Puesto que mi comprensi贸n de lo que es la TRE es tambi茅n limitada, me reservo la potestad de corregir, eliminar y a帽adir m谩s material en el futuro, si se revelara necesario, con el 谩nimo de que la entrada contenga una visi贸n lo m谩s acertada posible de lo que es y para qu茅 sirve la TRE.</p> <p>脡ste es un聽<i>post</i>聽t茅cnico, muy detallado y largo, escrito con la vocaci贸n de servir de referencia para discusiones futuras. Advertidos quedan los lectores.</p> <p><b>Definici贸n:</b><br /> La Tasa de Retorno Energ茅tico, abreviado TRE (en ingl茅s<i>聽Energy Return on Energy Investment</i>, abreviado EROEI o a veces tambi茅n EROI), es un par谩metro que pretende cuantificar la rentabilidad de una fuente de energ铆a (o de un sistema de producci贸n de energ铆a). Se define como el cociente entre la energ铆a producida por dicha fuente durante toda su vida 煤til y la energ铆a consumida para poder operar esa fuente, tambi茅n durante toda su vida 煤til. En forma de ecuaci贸n,</p> <p>t = E/C</p> <p>donde t es la TRE, E es el total de energ铆a producida por una fuente y C el total de energ铆a consumida para poder operar esa fuente.</p> <p>A partir de esta ecuaci贸n b谩sica, se pueden derivar otras expresiones habituales para la TRE. Si definimos N como la energ铆a neta producida por una fuente durante su vida 煤til (es decir, descontando los costes energ茅ticos de operaci贸n, N=E-C), podemos obtener las siguientes expresiones:</p> <p>C=E/t</p> <p>t = 1 + N/C</p> <p>N= (t-1) C</p> <p>C= N/(t-1)</p> <p><b>Interpretaci贸n:</b></p> <p>La TRE es el tanto por uno de energ铆a producida respecto a la energ铆a consumida en la producci贸n, es decir, cu谩ntas unidades de energ铆a se producen por cada unidad de energ铆a invertida. Se podr铆a decir tambi茅n que la TRE es el factor multiplicador de una fuente de energ铆a: si se consumen C unidades de energ铆a, se obtendr谩n t*C unidades en la salida, donde t ser谩 la TRE de esa fuente (uso la convenci贸n usual en inform谩tica de designar la multiplicaci贸n con el s铆mbolo del asterisco, *).</p> <p>Por el mismo motivo, se puede hablar de la TRE como una medida del rendimiento energ茅tico de una fuente, aunque al contrario de lo que sucede con el rendimiento econ贸mico no es usual expresarla en t茅rminos porcentuales, ya que generalmente el valor de la TRE es bastante mayor que 2 (t=2 implicar铆a una ganancia de energ铆a del 100%, y en general para un valor cualquiera de t el porcentaje de ganancia ser铆a (t-1)*100%).</p> <p>A igualdad de otros factores, l贸gicamente las fuentes con mayor TRE son preferibles, pues son las de mayor rendimiento. Sin embargo, esas fuentes podr铆an tener otros factores limitantes o inconvenientes (necesidad de materiales, impacto ambiental, riesgos), factores que la definici贸n de TRE no contempla, pues se centra solo en la rentabilidad energ茅tica.</p> <p>Es importante no confundir la TRE con la eficiencia, pues son conceptos que se aplican en dos contextos diferentes. En el caso de la TRE, lo que se mide es el rendimiento energ茅tico de una fuente de energ铆a (cu谩nta energ铆a se obtiene por cada unidad de energ铆a invertida), en tanto que la eficiencia energ茅tica se suele referir a la cantidad de energ铆a consumida por un uso de la energ铆a (por ejemplo, fabricar algo, iluminar, dar calor, etc), de manera que se considera un uso m谩s eficiente de la energ铆a aqu茅l que, para generar el mismo output, consume menos energ铆a. En suma: la TRE es el rendimiento de una fuente de energ铆a, en tanto que la eficiencia energ茅tica nos habla de cu谩nta energ铆a se consume para hacer algo.</p> <p><b>Origen:</b></p> <p>El concepto de TRE tiene sus ra铆ces en los an谩lisis del equilibrio en ecosistemas, es decir, es un concepto que se ha tomado prestado y adaptado desde la Ecolog铆a, que es una rama de la Biolog铆a. El ejemplo t铆pico es el an谩lisis del balance entre el d茅bito metab贸lico de un depredador y la cantidad de calor铆as que consigue de sus presas: un jaguar, para poder sobrevivir en su entorno, a trav茅s de la comida que consigue debe al menos recuperar la energ铆a que emplea en la caza y a煤n debe poder conseguir algo m谩s de energ铆a para otras actividades diferentes de la caza (el d茅bito metab贸lico en reposo, la reproducci贸n y el cuidado de las cr铆as, fundamentalmente). No es por tanto una casualidad que hablando de la TRE se aluda con frecuencia al ejemplo del predador-presa, puesto que es justamente de aqu铆 que surge la idea.</p> <p><b>Caracter铆sticas: </b><br /> Por construcci贸n, la TRE tiene un car谩cter est谩tico: el concepto solamente tiene pleno sentido en una situaci贸n de estacionariedad, es decir, en una situaci贸n tal en la que de manera muy estable en el tiempo se obtienen los mismos rendimientos con los mismos procesos. Volviendo a la analog铆a ecol贸gica, la TRE es realmente informativa en un ecosistema en equilibrio. Imag铆nense qu茅 pasar铆a en un ecosistema donde de repente se introdujera un superdepredador, mucho m谩s eficiente que los otros existentes. A la hora de valorar su TRE, nos encontrar铆amos que ser铆a muy elevada, pero justamente un depredador con mucho 茅xito normalmente aprovecha esos excedentes energ茅ticos para reproducirse m谩s, incrementando la presi贸n sobre el resto del ecosistema y eventualmente lo puede desequilibrar hasta destruirlo y autodestruirse (si el jaguar es tan bueno que caza todos los conejos, al final no tendr谩 que comer y se morir谩 de hambre). De manera an谩loga, si se est谩 modificando las t茅cnicas de extracci贸n de determinadas fuentes se puede incrementar enormemente la TRE como se calcular铆a en un determinado momento, a costa de hacerla caer en picado un tiempo despu茅s, al haber agotado r谩pidamente los recursos para los que esa t茅cnica era m谩s eficaz. Por tanto, en un sentido propio calcular la TRE solo tendr铆a sentido en una situaci贸n est谩tica, en la que nada evoluciona.</p> <p>La TRE del conjunto de fuentes que sustentan a una sociedad debe ser lo suficientemente elevada como para garantizar la estabilidad de esta sociedad. Eso equivale a decir que, para que una sociedad pueda mantenerse, los excedentes de la extracci贸n de energ铆a deben ser los adecuados para poder 芦costear energ茅ticamente禄 los usos sociales convencionales (educaci贸n, sanidad, infraestructuras, actividad econ贸mica, etc). Sin embargo, determinar el valor num茅rico concreto de la TRE m铆nima para que una sociedad no colapse es complejo, porque depende por completo de la estructura de esa sociedad (c贸mo obtiene y procesa la energ铆a, en qu茅 la usa). En a帽adidura, como se ha dicho antes la TRE es un concepto est谩tico, pero la sociedad es algo que evoluciona y se transforma, y su punto de equilibrio energ茅tico puede modificarse con el tiempo, o sin modificarse el valor num茅rico de la TRE se puede basar en un consumo completamente distinto de fuentes de energ铆a, haciendo las cosas de manera enormemente diferente pero estable, al fin y al cabo.</p> <p>La TRE m铆nima para el sustento de una sociedad es algo estructural, consustancial a la sociedad; y si las fuentes que usa esa sociedad empiezan a perder energ铆a neta ello no significa que la sociedad necesariamente colapse, sino que tendr谩 que modificar su estructura. Por tanto, cuando se habla de la TRE societaria no se puede hablar aisladamente o disociar, en modo alguno, de la sociedad a la que se refiere.</p> <p><b>Importancia:</b><br /> A pesar de sus limitaciones, el c谩lculo de la TRE tiene una buena capacidad diagn贸stica, siempre que se use una metodolog铆a 煤nica. En suma: sirve para detectar tendencias a corto plazo (principalmente, disminuci贸n r谩pida de la rentabilidad energ茅tica de las fuentes utilizadas).</p> <p>Adem谩s, el c谩lculo de la TRE puede usarse para evidenciar problemas graves y reales. Por ejemplo, cuando se invierte en determinadas fuentes de energ铆a (e.g., arenas bituminosas, fracking) que aunque no tienen rentabilidad econ贸mica actual se espera que la tengan en el futuro. Un an谩lisis de TRE correctamente ejecutado puede revelarnos que la TRE de esas fuentes es excesivamente baja y que las posibles mejoras tecnol贸gicas no tienen la capacidad de cambiar sustancialmente la situaci贸n (un ejemplo de esto es el 茅nfasis que se suele poner en la mejora en eficiencia de los paneles solares, cuando una instalaci贸n solar tiene otros componentes que representan unos costes adicionales que implican un bajo rendimiento incluso aunque se llegara a una eficiencia del 100% en la conversi贸n de la energ铆a solar en las placas).</p> <p>La TRE puede usarse tambi茅n para se帽alar el problema de la depauperizaci贸n energ茅tica de amplias capas de la sociedad: aunque en t茅rminos brutos la energ铆a aumente, la energ铆a neta puede estar disminuyendo, y eso se va a reflejar en una TRE en ca铆da. Sin conocer cu谩l es el proceso de asignaci贸n de recursos en una sociedad (cosa que suele ser muy compleja y mediada por el dinero), lo cierto es que si hay menos recursos energ茅ticos netos disponibles habr谩 forzosamente una disminuci贸n general del consumo, que probablemente ser谩 soportada mayormente por las clases populares.<br /> <b><br /> Limitaciones: </b><br /> La definici贸n de la TRE es muy ambigua, comenzando por los t茅rminos que aparecen en la fracci贸n. Al contrario de lo que sucede en el contexto ecol贸gico, en el metabolismo energ茅tico social la energ铆a es diversas veces transformada antes de su uso final, y eso puede hacer m谩s confuso saber qu茅 energ铆a debe ponerse en el numerador (energ铆a producida). Por ejemplo, no es obvio si se tiene que poner la energ铆a primaria (la producida en bruto) o la energ铆a final (ya transformada para su uso por el consumidor final).</p> <p>Esa ambig眉edad es, de acuerdo con algunos autores, mucho mayor, porque todo depende de d贸nde se ponen las fronteras del sistema, en particular para calcular en este caso el denominador (energ铆a consumida en la producci贸n). Hay autores que consideran que se tiene que contabilizar toda la energ铆a consumida en todo el proceso de transformaci贸n de la energ铆a, que suele ser complejo y consistir de muchas etapas hasta su disponibilidad real por el usuario final.</p> <p>Sin embargo, sobre la ambig眉edad en los dos t茅rminos de la fracci贸n que definen la TRE yo creo que se tiene que tomar una posici贸n mucho m谩s simple, de acuerdo con la visi贸n ecol贸gica en la que se basa la definici贸n de la TRE. Por el lado de la energ铆a producida, lo l贸gico es que se tome la energ铆a primaria puesto que es esto lo que entra en el sistema. No tiene sentido preocuparse por c贸mo se transforman las diversas fuentes de energ铆a cuando igualmente se tiene que analizar la estructura de la sociedad concreta de la que se habla, como dije arriba, y adem谩s la eficiencia en la transformaci贸n tambi茅n evoluciona con el tiempo, al igual que la sociedad. Por el lado de la energ铆a consumida, lo l贸gico es que no se tomen fronteras excesivamente extensas y que el t茅rmino se ci帽a a lo propiamente necesario para la producci贸n energ茅tica porque el resto de factores no son exclusivos de la producci贸n de energ铆a y ya est谩n teniendo una utilidad o uso social. Por ejemplo, a la hora de realizar el c谩lculo del coste de extracci贸n del petr贸leo es razonable contabilizar el coste energ茅tico de producir y transportar las vigas de acero que se han usado en la construcci贸n del pozo, pero no el de la carretera donde discurre el cami贸n (que es usada tambi茅n por el resto de la sociedad) o el salario que se le paga a los obreros (que son parte justamente de esa sociedad). Muchas veces la energ铆a considerada como 芦disipada禄 cuando se toman fronteras muy extensas en realidad est谩 siendo usada socialmente para que cierta gente viva su vida y es en realidad un uso social de la energ铆a, no un verdadero coste de producci贸n: es algo que sirve para mantener la sociedad en su conjunto en marcha. Hay que entender que la producci贸n de energ铆a es algo integrado en el metabolismo de la sociedad y que no puede ser disociado de ella, que sus fronteras son bastante difusas. Para que la TRE sea 煤til para entender tendencias y caracterizar la evoluci贸n de la sociedad lo l贸gico es,聽<i>ceteris paribus</i>, quedarse con la parte espec铆fica de ese negocio concreto (la producci贸n de energ铆a) asumiendo que todo lo dem谩s es igual – recordemos que la TRE es por definici贸n un concepto est谩tico, as铆 que siempre ser谩 imperfecta para caracterizar una situaci贸n cambiante; como m铆nimo, que la magnitud calculada sea realmente informativa de los cambios que queremos medir.</p> <p>Pero incluso con la simplificaci贸n de factores que acabo de proponer, lo cierto y verdad es que la estimaci贸n del valor de la TRE es muy compleja. No siempre se tiene acceso a los valores num茅ricos de todas las magnitudes requeridas, no siempre hay una verdadera trazabilidad de factores que son muy importantes, y muchas veces se tiene que recurrir a una conversi贸n entre costes monetarios (que, 茅stos s铆, siempre est谩n bien trazados) y costes energ茅ticos que pecar谩 siempre de cierta arbitrariedad (aparte del hecho de ser mucho m谩s variable en el tiempo que otros factores). Eso no quiere decir que el concepto de energ铆a neta y de TRE no sean relevantes, pero conocer su valor preciso es a veces dif铆cil. Por esa raz贸n, ser铆a interesante explorar la conexi贸n entre estas variables dif铆ciles de medir y otras m谩s sencillas de observar para poder deducir el valor de las primeras (una investigaci贸n sobre la que hay mucho campo para desarrollar).</p> <p>Otra complejidad que el mero concepto de la TRE no puede describir es que la sociedad usa diversas fuentes de energ铆a muy diferentes; y no solo es que su aprovechamiento depende del entramado social como ya hemos comentado, sino que adem谩s las diferentes fuentes interact煤an directamente entre ellas. Por ejemplo, se usa electricidad o grupos electr贸genos accionados con di茅sel para las operaciones en las minas, se usa gas natural para extraer y despu茅s mejorar qu铆micamente los petr贸leos extrapesados, se usan productos derivados del petr贸leo en la extracci贸n de gas de fracking, en China se usa masivamente el carb贸n para generar la electricidad con la que despu茅s se elaboran las placas fotovoltaicas y as铆 un largo etc茅tera. Por ello, al tratar de la energ铆a se tiene que considerar como un todo. Adem谩s, el mercado de la energ铆a est谩 globalizado, con frecuentes flujos de productos y subproductos yendo y viniendo de los diversos pa铆ses, as铆 que la energ铆a es algo global.</p> <p>A esta dificultad se le a帽ade que cada tipo de energ铆a suele ser m谩s eficaz para ciertos usos y mucho menos para los otros, con lo que no basta con conocer la TRE de cada fuente o del conjunto de todas ellas, sino si se est谩n usando de la manera m谩s apta. Cada fuente (o tipo de energ铆a, seg煤n el caso) tiene su nicho: el petr贸leo destaca en el transporte, la maquinaria pesada aut贸noma y la industria petroqu铆mica; el gas natural en el calor industrial y los fertilizantes; el carb贸n, en la producci贸n de electricidad (por desgracia) y en la producci贸n de acero; y la electricidad de diversos or铆genes en la industria manufacturera, los sistemas de control y la iluminaci贸n. Hay muchos otros usos en los que las fuentes son bastante intercambiables, y en algunos las elecciones mayoritarias no son necesariamente las m谩s eficientes energ茅ticamente pero s铆 que lo son en t茅rminos de facilidad de acceso en el contexto del pa铆s que lo usa (el caso de las centrales t茅rmicas de carb贸n es un buen ejemplo). Sin embargo, hay muchos usos para los cuales el cambio de vector energ茅tico lleva a una ineficiencia enorme; por ejemplo, electricidad en maquinaria pesada aut贸noma o petr贸leo para producir electricidad. Por motivos de diversa 铆ndole, y no siempre energ茅ticos (por ejemplo, por dificultad de acceder a la materia preferida) una sociedad puede aprovechar bastante menos la energ铆a de la que dispone a pesar de tener la misma TRE que otra donde los recursos energ茅ticos sean m谩s apropiados. Y es que los julios o kw路h de las diversas fuentes son iguales solo sobre el papel, la especializaci贸n de las fuentes de energ铆a es una dimensi贸n m谩s que tiene que ser considerada para saber si una sociedad es o no viable.</p> <p>Otra limitaci贸n que tiene la definici贸n de TRE aparece cuando se trata de determinar el valor umbral por debajo del cual la sociedad no es viable. Valores de TRE extremadamente bajos (menores que 2, por ejemplo) son pr谩cticamente incompatibles con una sociedad medianamente igualitaria, aunque podr铆an serlo con sociedades muy jerarquizadas en las que solo unos pocos se beneficiasen de la disponibilidad de fuentes de alta densidad energ茅tica o utilidad pero caras de producir, a fuerza de condenar a la masa a no disponer de ella y, peor a煤n, trabajar esclavizados para garantizar el bienestar de la minor铆a. Sin embargo, valores intermedios de TRE (digamos alrededor de 5) son probablemente compatibles con sociedades muy diferentes: sociedades igualitarias de gran bienestar social pero menos complejas y con fuerte sentido comunitario, o sociedades fuertemente jerarquizadas con una 茅lite acomodada y una mayor铆a viviendo en mayor o menor miseria. Lo que todo el mundo acepta es que para valores de TRE por encima de 10 es posible tener sociedades como la nuestra, muy jerarquizadas pero con un nivel de bienestar alto para la masa (al menos la de esta parte del mundo, ya que en realidad nuestro bienestar se basa en la degradaci贸n de las condiciones de vida de los pa铆ses nada igualitarios que nos suministran a bajo precio los recursos que necesitamos). Observen, sin embargo, que TREs elevadas no garantizan ese cierto igualitarismo, solo lo hacen compatible con la existencia de una 茅lite que vive mucho mejor que el resto. Pero siempre podr铆amos estar peor, y en ese sentido la TRE no tiene un valor predictivo sobre lo social como a veces se le atribuye.</p> <p>Y 茅se es el problema esencial que ha habido en muchas discusiones en las que se ha invocado el concepto de TRE: que se ha pecado con demasiada frecuencia de un exceso de reduccionismo a la hora de describir la complejidad de las sociedades humanas. Sin entrar ya en las consideraciones sociales y centr谩ndonos solo en los aspectos meramente materiales, hay otros muchos factores que interact煤an con la energ铆a y que no son descritos por la TRE, que son tan o m谩s limitantes que la misma: materiales, agua, alimentos. Los factores materiales suelen ser m谩s bien restrictivos, esto es, nos indican que aquello que es posible energ茅ticamente en realidad no es posible por falta de otros recursos.聽 Pero est谩n tambi茅n los factores sociales, como la asignaci贸n de recursos, la igualdad social, el sentido de pertenencia o la cohesi贸n social. Estos factores pueden聽<b>ampliar</b>聽los l铆mites energ茅ticos, es decir, hacer posible cosas que mirando simplemente el uso de energ铆a no nos parecen posibles. Cuando pensamos en el m谩s que previsible descenso energ茅tico de nuestra sociedad, asumimos que va a colapsar porque impl铆citamente aceptamos que mantendremos exactamente la misma manera de funcionar que hasta ahora, que nos comportaremos mec谩nicamente, como un coche que continuar谩 avanzado hasta que se le acabe su dep贸sito de gasolina. Sin embargo, cambios en la estructura social y econ贸mica permitir铆an mantener una sociedad estable y no tan diferente de la actual con un consumo mucho menor. Hay un ejemplo que siempre pongo: cuando yo nac铆 (1970) Espa帽a ten铆a unos 34 millones de habitantes y ahora tiene unos 46, un incremento poblacional del 35%. Sin embargo, en el mismo per铆odo el consumo energ茅tico en Espa帽a se ha multiplicado por 4. La mitad de ese consumo energ茅tico es petr贸leo. Ahora imaginen que en vez de usar los 27 millones de coches que hay en Espa帽a us谩ramos solo la cuarta parte (pues la mayor铆a de los coches suelen llevar solo un ocupante cuando pueden llevar 4 o 5). O que en vez de transportar tantas mercanc铆as desde largas distancias el consumo fuera mayoritariamente de producci贸n local. Y as铆 con un largo etc茅tera de medidas. Se podr铆an conseguir reducciones del consumo del 20, 30, 40, 50%… El problema que se generar铆a es que se vender铆an menos coches y los obreros de esas f谩bricas se ir铆an al paro, se vender铆a menos agua embotellada y sus trabajadores se ir铆an al paro, y as铆 con todo. El problema, por tanto, es social, no t茅cnico: se trata de ocupar a toda esa gente en actividades que no impliquen un consumo desmesurado y creciente de energ铆a y de recursos. Eso no es lo problem谩tico: lo problem谩tico es que nuestro sistema econ贸mico y financiero est谩 dise帽ado para crecer siempre, mientras que desde un punto de vista econ贸mico los cambios productivos arriba enunciados supondr铆an una contracci贸n econ贸mica escalofriante. Por tanto, lo que realmente hace falta es la reforma del sistema econ贸mico y financiero para que no necesiten el crecimiento. Cosa, por supuesto, harto dif铆cil; pero no es en realidad un problema energ茅tico, sino eminentemente social, de organizaci贸n social. En resumen los condicionantes sociales pueden conseguir ampliar los l铆mites del uso energ茅tico y,de nuevo, la TRE no permite predecir el destino de nuestra sociedad – a no ser que nos empe帽emos en conducir un coche que se ha quedado sin gasolina</p> <p><b>Errores comunes en la aplicaci贸n de la TRE:</b></p> <ul> <li><b><i>芦Fuentes con TRE negativa禄:</i><i>聽</i></b>Por definici贸n, como la TRE se calcula como la divisi贸n de dos cantidades positivas la TRE no puede ser negativa. Obviamente, quien dice esto quiere decir es que un recurso que se piensa que es una fuente de energ铆a pero que en realidad es un sumidero, es decir, que produce menos energ铆a que la que se gasta en 茅l. En la definici贸n de la TRE, eso quiere decir que E es menor que C y por tanto la TRE es menor que 1. As铆 pues, los sumideros energ茅ticos tienen TREs inferiores a 1. Tener una TRE por debajo de 1 invalida a un recurso como fuente de energ铆a, pero a煤n puede ser 煤til para otras cosas: es el caso de los vectores energ茅ticos, como la electricidad. Cuando se produce electricidad, se pierde parte de la energ铆a de la que se parte, pero la conversi贸n resulta interesante ya que con la electricidad podemos hacer cosas que posiblemente con la fuente original no podr铆amos (por ejemplo, al usar di茅sel en un grupo electr贸geno para poder utilizar un ordenador en un lugar remoto).</li> <li><i><b>Hablar de la TRE de materiales o de cualquier otra cosa que no es una fuente de energ铆a:</b></i>聽En ocasiones, hay gente que habla de la TRE del grafeno o del litio, o incluso del acero o del cemento. Los materiales pueden tener una utilidad (cosa que a veces se mide en t茅rminos de exerg铆a, como hace Alicia Valero en sus trabajos), pero no aportan energ铆a. Por tanto, E=0 y su TRE ser铆a de 0, aunque como digo en estos casos no tiene sentido el concepto.</li> <li><i><b>Asumir valores l铆mite en sentido duro:</b></i>聽A veces se dice que no es posible mantener una civilizaci贸n cuando la TRE cae por debajo de 10, o de 5, y se dice de manera muy categ贸rica. Teniendo en cuenta las incertidumbres en el c谩lculo de la TRE mencionadas m谩s arriba, y que como vimos la respuesta social cambia completamente como se aprovecha la energ铆a, los valores de 10 o de 5 se tienen que tomar como una referencia, pero nunca como un l铆mite estricto. Que la TRE decaiga es un claro s铆ntoma de dificultades y de crisis, crisis que potencialmente pueden ser muy destructivas, pero no se puede creer que implican un destino inexorable porque no es cierto.</li> <li><i><b>Apilamiento de fuentes:</b></i>聽A veces me he encontrado con el curioso argumento de que si tenemos una fuente que tiene una TRE de 2, podemos f谩cilmente conseguir una fuente con una TRE de 4, simplemente tomando dos copias de la misma fuente y metiendo la salida de la primera fuente como entrada de la segunda; as铆, la primera multiplica las unidades de energ铆a invertidas por 2, y la segunda las multiplica de nuevo por 2, con lo que la cantidad original ha sido multiplicada por 4. Siguiendo con ese argumento, a fuerza de apilar las fuentes se puede conseguir una TRE tan grande como se quiera. Este tipo de razonamiento viene de pensarse que una fuente de energ铆a es un dispositivo ajeno a la sociedad que la utiliza, en vez de un sistema completamente integrado en la misma, y no darse cuenta que la TRE es una variable de diagn贸stico del sistema. Es decir, cuando se explota una fuente de energ铆a se consideran much铆simas variables (tanto condicionantes materiales como sociales) y el valor de TRE es simplemente una medici贸n de una de las muchas dimensiones del problema. Como norma general, las fuentes de energ铆a se tienden a explotar de la manera m谩s efectiva, y si no se les consigue sacar m谩s rendimiento es porque faltan materiales, o la regulaci贸n no lo permite, o porque falta espacio, o porque no hay mercado, o mil cosas m谩s. En un yacimiento de petr贸leo habr谩 una distancia m铆nima entre pozo y pozo motivada por cuestiones de seguridad y de operatividad (han de pasar camiones, operarios, los pozos no deber谩n interferir unos con otros en el subsuelo, etc); la cantidad de agua disponible para la recuperaci贸n secundaria ser谩 limitada; el oledoducto tendr谩 una capacidad m谩xima; el n煤mero de camiones que lleguen por d铆a estar谩 limitado; la cantidad de acero que se puede comprar a precio razonable ser谩 una dada; la cimentaci贸n de los pozos tardar谩 un tiempo en fraguar; las inspecciones de seguridad llevar谩n un tiempo; a veces habr谩 roca m谩s dura; a veces los perfiles del subsuelo ser谩n m谩s dif铆ciles de hacer; en ocasiones problemas en la superficie (huelgas, revueltas, accidentes) detendr谩n las operaciones; y mil circunstancias m谩s que no permiten escalar las operaciones m谩s all谩 de un l铆mite f铆sicamente razonable. Y algo similar pasa con las fuentes de energ铆a renovable: las presas se hacen donde se puede, igual que los parques e贸licos, y la fotovoltaica tiene muchas m谩s restricciones de lo que la gente se piensa. Al final, la clave es que no se pueden apilar sistemas de producci贸n de energ铆a unos detr谩s de otros por razones que van m谩s all谩 de la energ铆a. La TRE es simplemente una variable medida, una 芦temperatura禄 que tomamos de un sistema ya establecido de acuerdo con sus posibilidades y que nos da un poco de informaci贸n sobre su estado.</li> <li><i><b>芦La TRE es un concepto t茅rmico (o fosilista)禄:聽</b></i>Alguna vez me he encontrado con este curioso argumento, caro a ciertos grupos ecologistas que promueven las instalaciones renovables. Esencialmente, este argumento pretende que no se puede aplicar el concepto de TRE a fuentes de energ铆a renovable porque no son 芦t茅rmicas禄 (en el sentido que no es una energ铆a proveniente de la quema de combustibles f贸siles o uranio). Sin embargo, el concepto de energ铆a neta se aplica a cualquier fuente de energ铆a, como es l贸gico (pues lo que se pretende es que la fuente de energ铆a proporcione m谩s energ铆a que la que se consume en su uso) y en el fondo la TRE es solo un n煤mero que, con todas las limitaciones discutidas m谩s arriba, expresa la ganancia neta de energ铆a. Las energ铆as renovables tienen caracter铆sticas y maneras de funcionar diferentes de las f贸siles, y su uso depende, como en el caso de todas las dem谩s fuentes de energ铆a, de la estructura de la sociedad que las utiliza. Tienen su idiosincrasia, ciertamente, como tambi茅n la tienen las otras. Las limitaciones que tiene la TRE para describirlas, y que hemos descrito m谩s arriba, son las mismas que tiene para describir cualquier otra fuente de energ铆a. Pero, al igual que con las otras, el uso de la TRE nos da informaci贸n sobre el uso y las tendencias del uso de las energ铆as renovables, exactamente igual que con las otras.</li> </ul> <p><b>M谩s all谩 de la TRE: </b><br /> Entender la complejidad de los cambios que se est谩n operando en el panorama energ茅tico requerir铆a la introducci贸n de conceptos y m茅todos de auditor铆a que den una informaci贸n m谩s precisa de la situaci贸n concreta que se vive en un momento determinado y que permitan un ajuste din谩mico a circunstancias cambiantes, como se requiere en la situaci贸n actual en que las cosas est谩n cambiando r谩pido.</p> <p>Una posible manera de obtener una imagen m谩s fiable de la situaci贸n actual de la energ铆a en nuestra sociedad ser铆a incorporando el c谩lculo del<a href="http://crashoil.blogspot.com/2016/02/balance-energetico-integral-un-metodo.html">Balance Energ茅tico Integral</a>聽(BEI). De la misma manera que聽 los productos incorporan un trazador obvio del coste (a trav茅s del precio) y que en los 煤ltimos a帽os se han introducido sistemas de contabilidad para saber cu谩nto CO2 se ha emitido en la generaci贸n de un determinado producto (dato que a veces se puede ver en la etiqueta del producto que llega al consumidor final), no ser铆a mucho m谩s dif铆cil hacer una contabilidad de la energ铆a (primaria) consumida para la generaci贸n de todos los productos. El BEI se define de manera similar a la TRE, pero en vez de considerar toda la vida 煤til del sistema de producci贸n de energ铆a se tiene en cuenta el consumo y la producci贸n de energ铆a en cada momento, cosa posible si se traza el gasto energ茅tico en la producci贸n de todo, desde tuber铆as de acero hasta el hormig贸n, pasando por los alimentos y el transporte. Conociendo el gasto energ茅tico en cada momento, ser铆a facil铆cisimo calcular el BEI de pozos concretos, de minas concretas, de instalaciones renovables concretas, y as铆 se tendr铆a un diagn贸stico en tiempo real de la rentabilidad energ茅tica de cualquier sistema de producci贸n de energ铆a, renovable o no. Con el BEI se podr铆a detectar r谩pidamente si una instalaci贸n est谩 funcionando correctamente o no y tomar medidas correctoras, y nos resultar铆a m谩s informativo sobre el rumbo que est谩 tomando la sociedad.</p> <p>En resumen: hay que tener presente que el descenso del volumen de energ铆a producida vendr谩 acompa帽ado por un descenso de la energ铆a neta disponible que no siempre ser谩 detectable por s铆 misma. Sin embargo, esta ca铆da de la energ铆a disponible tendr谩 un alto impacto social porque es la energ铆a disponible la que realmente llega a la actividad econ贸mica, y la que proporciona el sustento econ贸mico y material de nuestra sociedad. Es por ello que habr谩 que prestar mucha atenci贸n al problema de la energ铆a neta, y saberlo explicar. Ardua tarea.</p> <p>Saludos.<br /> AMT</p> </div></div></div></div><div class="vc_column tdi_140 wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column td-pb-span4 td-is-sticky"> <style scoped>.tdi_140{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_140>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_140>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_140>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_140>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_140>.wpb_wrapper{width:auto;height:auto}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" data-sticky-offset="20" data-sticky-is-width-auto="W2ZhbHNlLGZhbHNlLGZhbHNlLGZhbHNlXQ=="><div class="vc_row_inner tdi_142 vc_row vc_inner wpb_row td-pb-row" > <style scoped>.tdi_142{position:relative!important;top:0;transform:none;-webkit-transform:none}.tdi_142,.tdi_142 .tdc-inner-columns{display:block}.tdi_142 .tdc-inner-columns{width:100%}@media (min-width:768px){.tdi_142{margin-left:-15px;margin-right:-15px}.tdi_142>.vc_column_inner,.tdi_142>.tdc-inner-columns>.vc_column_inner{padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px}}@media 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