Mysteel：春节后全国热轧带钢价格或存在上涨空间-我的钢铁网

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href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010108-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>带钢</a>价格震荡下行，并于9月触底反弹之后温和盘整。全年带钢供应前高后低，消费同步下降，库存长时间低于去年同期水平。目前2025年初，小年前后，产业链客户冬储基本结束，钢厂订单尚可，供应相对高位，库存首周开始高于去年同期水平，节中节后钢厂限产政策如何？市场冬储结构怎样？下游生产及库存体量如何？节后是否还有补库机会？今年与往年相比，供需数据表现如何？现跟随笔者梳理总结，具体如下：</p> <p align="justify"><strong>一、历年春节前后带钢相关数据对比</strong></p> <p align="center"><img src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/02/07/1505091.png" alt="" width="600" height="452.5328330206379" /></p> <p>价格方面，由上表1可知，带钢价格2021-2024年连续4年春节之后开门红，节中涨幅在50-350元/吨不等。2025年节后大概率延续开门红走势。</p> <p>开工方面，由往年开工数据对比可知，2020年以后春节前后钢厂供应多有下降，也正是由于正月期间低供应，叠加节后下游集中补库，供需错配促进节后开门红行情。（说明：以上表格内容，由于Mystee对带钢生产数据进行周期性的样本更新，生产开工数据仅供春节前后增减幅度参考，不做学术对比研究。）根据近10年数据显示，春节后带钢库存均会出现累积，并且在节后第三周左右时间到达峰值。</p> <p>库存方面，2025年目前国内卷带整体库存体量相对低位，预计节后大概率出现库存线性累积的现象，同事累库周期可能会超过三周。</p> <p><strong>二、钢厂政策、情绪及厂内库存</strong></p> <p><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>节前调研了解，截止2025年1月21日（小年），国内热轧带钢生产企业样本，仅两家钢厂出台冬储优惠政策，且均为针对内部协议户及周边战略客户制定。其余钢厂均未出台冬储优惠政策，春节期间仍按照往常销售政策执行。华北区域钢厂订单尚可，多接到正月十五前后。部分钢厂检修带钢产线保证建材供应。部分钢厂看好节后市场，做少量厂内库存。部分钢厂带钢产线2月份存在检修计划。整体情绪谨慎乐观。结合其中的一些代表性的钢厂，总结如下：</p> <p>钢厂A：节后估计还是会开门红，十四五收官之年，国内政策还是非常值得期待的，但是今年资金及宏观不确定因素也很多，节后出口情况可能会受到影响。今年下游冬储不是很积极，我们正常接单，没有主动做库存，节前订单接近尾声了，目前接到2月下旬，节后看好，全年大概率还是看横盘，不看有太大波动。</p> <p>钢厂B：我们每年都不会出台冬储政策，目前订单接到2月底，这两天计划做2-3万吨左右的库存，节后看涨，目前价格不高，可以做点看看。</p> <p>钢厂C：今年给协议户优惠20元/吨的政策，没有做库存，随行就市。</p> <p>钢厂D：目前带钢线在检修，订单不好，加上建材节前的订单还没有发完，带钢检修保建材，后面带钢订单之后恢复生产。厂内有一些库存给北方陆续交单。</p> <p>钢厂E：春节期间及2月份没有检修计划，我们产线前面检修完成了，后面就正常生产，订单跟往年基本持平，对节后价格比较乐观。</p> <p>钢厂F：正常接单，锁价已经基本接完了，但是没敢多接，因为我们计划2月份检修20天左右，因为带钢效益可以，前面检修一直没检，2月份是例行检修。今年跟往年一样，没有冬储政策，节后不敢看太远，整体偏谨慎。</p> <p>综上所述，受春节期间调坯带钢产线集中停产，以及1-2月份长流程及个别电炉带钢产线存在检修计划的影响，预计春节期间及节后整体的带钢供应存在小幅收窄预期，叠加节后下游陆续开工补库，预计节后带钢大概率供需错配，价格存在短期一定支撑。</p> <p><strong>三、</strong><strong>带钢库存及区域市场分析及预测</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;" align="justify"><img src="https://img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/02/07/1505092.png" alt="" width="600" height="388.2352941176471" /></p> <p align="center">图1：国内重点市场带钢库存数据对比图（万吨）</p> <p align="right">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">Mysteel统计数据显示，截止1月16日，本周全国热轧带钢主要市场样本库存总量67.36万吨，较上周增加9.68万吨，较上月同期增加18.71万吨，较去年同期增加0.59万吨。带钢库存自2024年9月中旬以来一直低于去年同期，直到1月17日开始初步超过去年同期水平。按照往年经验以及目前供应端相对高位的情况来看，今年节后国内热轧带钢库存大概率持续累积，且预计库存累积周期或将有所延长。</p> <p align="justify">区域方面，小年前后国内热轧带钢价格华北及华东区域相对坚挺，华南区域价格相对较低，一方面受到翅冀等新增产线产量释放，对华南市场的冲击，以及北方钢厂资源的集中到货影响，华南本地带钢库存远高于往年同期水平，整提销售压力突出，一方面受到本地下游加工企业及终端放假较早，市场成交多集中于贸易环节，市场套保的成交价格相对偏低。同时华南热卷库存承压，低价热卷对带钢价格形成一定程度的压制。华东方面，前期恒润等热卷资源到货减少，形成时间差造成本地热卷库存偏低，无<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/xi/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>卷带价差于1月上旬一度扩大至80余元/吨，高价热卷对无锡带钢价格形成支撑，加之今年无锡带钢库存处于正常偏低水平，促使整体华东-华北价差在四季度并未出现明显的倒挂现象。</p> <p align="justify">展望2025年，目前区域库存依旧存在错配现象，春节期间休市为主，北方资源正常到港，预计华东华南区域带钢库存正常累积。受九江及翅冀带钢资源的到货影响，预计2月份北方资源南下体量或有减少。且华南市场消化库存为主，预计区域价差将会有所修复。节后伴随开市后下游补库，区域价差或逐步修复至运费成本上下水平运行。</p> <p><strong>四</strong><strong>、下游提前放假 </strong><strong>原料库存正常偏低</strong></p> <p>今年春节前期，下游企业放假时间集中在1月20日前后，部分天津镀<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/xin/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锌</a>带钢厂及管厂于1月12日开始陆续放假，下游提前放假，整体原料采购积极性不高，具体开工及库存数据如下。</p> <p>Mysteel调研数据显示，截止2025年1月17日，本周全国地区热轧带钢表观需求量205.49万吨，较上周减少3.52万吨，年同比增加6.06万吨。2025年1月14日，本网监测的霸州<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌</a>带钢产能利用率为 43.48%，周环比下降0.79% ；Mysteel直缝<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010903-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>生产企业（29家）周度调研数据显示，本周焊管产量23.89万吨，周环比减少5.68万吨，产能利用率为43.18%，周环比下降10.26%，开工率为68.85%，周环比下降7.48%，厂内库存为26.52万吨，周环比减少1.09万吨，原料库存为52.8万吨，周环比减少0.81万吨；<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010905-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌管</a>（28家）产量为19.84万吨，周环比减少4.97万吨，产能利用率为49.49%，周环比下降12.39%，开工率为75.82%，周环比下降4.95%，厂内库存为37.1万吨，周环比减少2.31万吨，周锌锭用量为4138吨，周环比减少1024吨。</p> <p>综上所述，今年下游冬储体量相对较低，并且小厂普遍较早放假，目前已经有80%的<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010109-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢管</a>厂家进入放假模式，多数有计划冬储的管厂及镀锌<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>厂已经完成补货，冬储基本告一段落。</p> <p><strong>五、总结</strong></p> <p align="justify">2025年冬储环境建立在供应过剩，出口数据向好，库存累积提速，钢厂利润尚存，下游倒挂加剧，终端放假提前的背景下进行。目前<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4262,7073-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁水产量</a>见底，铁矿及<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>等原料价格后期或存在支撑。虽然国际经济环境存在不确定性，但国内政策对冲存在较强的利好预期，以及板材制造业需求的驱动。结构性机会依旧存在，综合预计2025年春节之后，国内热轧带钢市场大概率出现“开门红”。我们预计上半年带钢价格前高后低。下半年伴随宏观调控，落地显效，制造业回暖，出口提升，需求拉动，价格回升后四季度末端估值回归。综合2025年，预估低点可能会高于今年，高点低于今年，整体震荡幅度收窄。全年均价预计小幅下移。</p> <p align="justify">建议厂商密切关注市场动态及政策变动，保持合理经营，谨慎运营规避风险。最后，祝广大钢铁同仁们，蛇年行大运，多财多福，平安顺遂！</p> <p align="justify"> </p> <p align="justify">数据支持：侯立岩，刘开源</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：崔萌萌 021-26094001 </br> 资讯监督：李小玲 021-66896734 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a 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