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Theor. Biol.</a> <a href="/?q=in%3A452347" title="Articles in this Issue">234, No. 3, 413-421 (2005)</a>. </div> <div class="abstract">Summary: We discuss the dynamics of a minimal model for spreading of infectious diseases, such as various types of influenza. The spreading takes place on a dynamic small-world network and can be viewed as comprising short- and long-range spreading processes. We derive approximate equations for the epidemic threshold as well as the spreading dynamics, and show that there is a good agreement with numerical discrete time-step simulations. We then analyse the dependence of the epidemic saturation time on the initial conditions, and outline a possible method of utilizing the model in predicting the development of epidemics based on early figures of infected. Finally, we compare time series calculated with our model to real-world data.</div> <div class="clear"></div> <br> <div class="citations"><div class="clear"><a href="/?q=rf%3A7238609">Cited in <strong>13</strong> Documents</a></div></div> <div class="classification"> <h3>MSC:</h3> <table><tr> <td> <a class="mono" href="/classification/?q=cc%3A92D30" title="MSC2020">92D30</a> </td> <td class="space"> Epidemiology </td> </tr><tr> <td> <a class="mono" href="/classification/?q=cc%3A05C82" title="MSC2020">05C82</a> </td> <td class="space"> Small world graphs, complex networks (graph-theoretic aspects) </td> </tr></table> </div><div class="keywords"> <h3>Keywords:</h3><a href="/?q=ut%3Aepidemiology">epidemiology</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Aspreading+models">spreading models</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Acomplex+networks">complex networks</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Ainfectious+diseases">infectious diseases</a></div> <!-- Modal used to show zbmath metadata in different output formats--> <div class="modal fade" id="metadataModal" tabindex="-1" role="dialog" aria-labelledby="myModalLabel"> <div class="modal-dialog" role="document"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"><span aria-hidden="true">×</span></button> <h4 class="modal-title" id="myModalLabel">Cite</h4> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="form-group"> <label for="select-output" class="control-label">Format</label> <select id="select-output" class="form-control" aria-label="Select Metadata format"></select> </div> <div class="form-group"> <label for="metadataText" class="control-label">Result</label> <textarea class="form-control" id="metadataText" rows="10" style="min-width: 100%;max-width: 100%"></textarea> </div> <div id="metadata-alert" class="alert alert-danger" role="alert" style="display: none;"> <!-- alert for connection errors etc --> </div> </div> <div class="modal-footer"> <button type="button" class="btn btn-primary" onclick="copyMetadata()">Copy to clipboard</button> <button type="button" class="btn btn-default" data-dismiss="modal">Close</button> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="functions clearfix"> <div class="function"> <!-- Button trigger metadata modal --> <a type="button" class="btn btn-default btn-xs pdf" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#metadataModal" data-itemtype="Zbl" data-itemname="Zbl 1445.92280" data-ciurl="/ci/07238609" data-biburl="/bibtex/07238609.bib" data-amsurl="/amsrefs/07238609.bib" data-xmlurl="/xml/07238609.xml" > Cite </a> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs pdf" data-container="body" type="button" href="/pdf/07238609.pdf" title="Zbl 1445.92280 as PDF">Review PDF</a> </div> <div class="fulltexts"> <span class="fulltext">Full Text:</span> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs" type="button" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.12.003" aria-label="DOI for “Modelling development of epidemics with dynamic small-world networks”" title="10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.12.003">DOI</a> </div> <div class="sfx" style="float: right;"> </div> </div> <div class="references"> <h3>References:</h3> <table><tr> <td>[1]</td> <td class="space">Albert, R.; Barabási, A.-L., Statistical mechanics of complex networks, Rev. 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Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. 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