Mysteel：铁合金全品种分析师视点（11月24日）-我的钢铁网

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<p>【南方锰矿】周初硅锰期货持续走低，但锰矿现货价格并未受其波动。本月港口整体到船较少，可贸易库存处于低位，叠加港口现货价格长期处于倒挂，矿商挺价情绪不减，低价货源难寻，价格持续坚挺，但询盘有所减少，下游厂家多按需采购。半碳酸成交价格36.5元/吨度，高品氧化矿现货较少，价格有所上涨，加蓬报价41.5-42元/吨度，澳块成交价格较周初上涨0.5元/吨度左右，围绕在44.7-45元/吨度，低品澳籽成交价格在39.5元/吨度。今日South32对华1月装船报价：高品澳块4.82美元/吨度，南非半碳酸4.1美元/吨度，均有所上涨。本周到港量依旧偏低，南非矿5.5万吨，澳矿1.5万吨，加蓬3.2万吨。本月加蓬只有一船到港，可贸易量偏少。短期来看，氧化矿价格可能会小幅冲高，半碳酸价格维稳运行。合金成本压力不断上行，后面仍需关注钢招价格及终端需求。</p> <p></p> <p>【硅锰】上周盘面表现较好，厂家基本以盘面-300元/吨卖货，交单价格围绕7100-7150元/吨，本周周初受盘面价格下挫影响，北方现货报价7050-7100元/吨，底部价格到7000元/吨，降50元/吨左右，今天盘面涨幅较大，现货价格跟涨，主流报价7100元/吨左右，成交还未跟上。贸易商报价6600元/吨不含税，无明显变化。</p> <p>本周厂家主要以交付长协订单以及点价订单为主。宁夏复产一台炉目前已出成品，涉及日产量200吨/天，山西由于疫情及利润偏低原因，停炉3台，涉及日产300吨左右。</p> <p>下游端，北方钢厂采购价格围绕7250-7300元/吨，相比贸易商较为活跃纷纷低价点价采购。</p> <p>北方硅锰成本走高以及价格较低影响，厂家低价惜售，短期内走势较为纠结。</p> <p>广西硅锰市场小幅震荡上行，价格小幅调整，现货少，大厂基本排单生产。个别厂家因为炉子原因进行检修或停产，开工和日产小幅下降。硅锰6517主流成交7200-7250元/吨，个别报价7300元/吨左右，硅锰6014个别成交6550元/吨，6450-6500元/吨成交居多。华南钢厂开始进行12月份硅锰招标采购，部分钢厂价格接近7600元/吨到厂，南方市场货少看涨，厂家挺价情绪浓，市场博弈加强。</p> <p>内蒙硅锰：周初盘面的下调，厂家基本维持平稳报价，出厂7000-7100元/吨，个别现货较多厂家低价出货，今天盘面开始大幅反弹，现货有小幅跟涨，主流报价7050-7150元/吨。连续几轮<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>的上涨叠加运费上行，推高了生产成本，厂家低价出货资源不足。目前开工率平稳，内蒙疫情仍紧张，厂家闭环化生产，生产运输稍有影响，目前看影响不大。下游贸易端，周初盘面下跌，采货意愿低，随着今日盘面反弹，开始陆续有询货出现。钢厂端，调研部分钢厂，目前生产稳定，有钢厂表示最近疫情反复，会考虑12月增加部分采购量，减少1月冬储压力。</p> <p></p> <p>【电解锰】本周电解锰市场呈偏强上涨趋势，主流市场报价围绕在15900-16100元/吨，当前现货资源偏紧张，低价货难寻，市场惜售盼涨情绪高，个别高价喊到16200-16500元/吨，海外出口FOB价格也随之国内炒涨至2300美元/吨左右。月末钢招进厂稍显缓慢，待更多钢招给予一定指引。进一步关注本周的联盟会议情况。</p> <p></p> <p>【富锰渣】山西地区30度富锰渣主流报价在现金出厂不含税970-1000元/吨，辽宁地区40度富锰渣主流报价在现金出厂含税1760-1800元/吨，湖南地区30度富锰渣主流报价在现金出厂含税1250-1280元/吨，宁夏地区35度富锰渣主流报价在现金出厂含税1600-1630元/吨，目前富锰渣市场震荡运行，同时富锰渣也在跟随进口锰矿的行情波动</p> <p></p> <p>【锰铁】高碳锰铁现货价格暂无变化，部分厂家让利贸易商出货。宝武钢铁12月份高锰招标FeMn70C7.0承兑含税包到：7050元/吨（65基价），招标数量4700吨。本月华东钢招招标价格较上月下跌150元/吨。目前高锰现货偏紧，但受下游压价影响，略有松动态势。中低碳锰铁弱势运行，据悉，本月已开展的零星钢招压价情绪较浓，价格出现下跌。厂家以谨慎观望为主，现货报价较混乱，实际成交价格不高。综合来看，锰铁短期内弱势运行，将持续关注月底钢招情况。</p> <p></p> <p>【<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----030301-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>硅铁</a>】安阳贸易商现货市场已由周初下跌100元/吨回涨至之前水平，72硅铁自然块不含税价格7600元/吨左右；75硅铁自然块不含税围绕8200元/吨左右。目前下游需求偏弱，铸造厂、出口形势依旧不乐观，且11月份钢招基本结束，贸易商入场拿货不多，按需采购为主。目前安阳市场硅铁现货不多，但是成交订单也少。</p> <p>硅铁西北主产区72硅铁自然块报价在7900-8000元/吨，75硅铁价格围绕8500-8600元/吨。周初盘面下跌导致现货市场承受压力增大，询价居多，高报价成交较少。成本端<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>兰炭</a>小幅微调至1600-1770元/吨，硅石受疫情影响不好寻货，青海主产区成本端较其他产区较为优势，总体成本较上周下调100元/吨左右，目前大多避峰生产，库存偏紧。整体来看，业内人士多持悲观情绪，大多观望中，短期来看，硅铁市场预计将持弱势运行为主，静待钢招进场。</p> <p></p> <p>【硅钙】硅钙合金市场依然平静，报价延续稳态，Ca30Si60主厂区成交价格含税现金12000元/吨左右，目前厂家低价出货意愿不高，但是市场需求本就偏弱，提涨依旧困难，近期库存消耗进度较缓，后期还需观察下游需求的改善情况。</p> <p></p> <p>【金属镁】本周金属镁市场延续弱势运行，工厂报价逐步走弱，市场需求采购较少、态度偏弱，今日99.90%镁锭陕西主流成交出厂现金含税23100-23200元/吨，较周初下调300-400元/吨，山西成交价格在23400-23500元/吨。短期来看镁市或将维持弱稳态势，能否突破23000元/吨关卡仍需关注市场供需情况。</p> <p></p> <p>【工业硅】工业硅市场价格本周下调了500元/吨左右，华东通氧553#硅在20100-20300元/吨，华东有机硅用421#硅在21000-21400元/吨，目前各地疫情又开始蔓延，物流运输持续紧张氛围；云南本周怒江地区已经开始停产，了解到整个工业园区将留下三台冶炼炉生产，云南其他区域基本正常生产。</p> <p>下游端今日有机硅板块DMC价格17000-18200元/吨，价格本周比较稳定，有机硅市场目前行情持续低迷，终端需求未有太大改善。多晶硅板块今日致密料价格在303-308元/千克左右，复投料价格在305-310元/千克左右，菜花料价格在298-304元/千克左右，下游环节硅片，电池片、组价价格维稳，目前市场硅料需求较之前有所减弱，整体看多以补库为主。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>合金板块价格企稳运行，ADC12成交价在18900-19300元/吨，目前成本虽有所减弱，但铝合金锭企业需求仍旧不足，维持低库存运行。</p> <p>总体来说，工业硅市场依然处于下行趋势，下游需求仍然清淡，市场供需矛盾仍显，且厂家观点多为年前将持续弱势氛围。</p> <p></p> <p>【钼】今日钼铁价格继续上行，市场看涨情绪继续蔓延，今日钼铁主流现货现金报价在22.3-22.6万元/吨，据了解散货钼铁成交价格在22.3-22.4万元/基吨之间。</p> <p>近日钼精矿市场较为活跃，询盘采购较为积极，部分议价和成交在3340元/吨度以上。散货钼精矿持续成交，市场关注大矿山的出货情况，今日45-50%品位钼精矿现货现金报价在3320-3340元/吨度。</p> <p>近日代表性钢厂纷纷入场采购，昨日主流钢厂招标价格围绕22-22.3万元/吨展开，部分钢厂招标价格达22.6万元/吨，钢招价格差距较大，今日湖南某钢厂钼铁招标承兑定价22.4万元/吨，环比上一轮招标价格上涨6000元/吨，河北某钢厂钼铁招标定价22.6万元/吨，较昨日价格上涨3000元/吨，由于矿山暂未出货，铁厂原料资源紧张，故钢招价格一路稳步上行。</p> <p>整体来看，原料资源紧张，钢厂陆续采购，钼铁价格有望继续上行，继续关注钢招价格以及矿山出货动态。</p> <p></p> <p>【国际钼】本周国际钼市稍显平静，市场询盘较少，成交一般，观望情绪增加。天津港氧化钼19.7美金/吨，少量有成交。目前欧洲钼铁48.6-49.2美金/吨，国际氧化钼价格19.5-20.4美金/吨。整体来看，市场货源仍偏紧，可能持续到明年一季度。另外国内钼铁价格强势反弹，对国际价格形成一定支撑。短期看国际钼市盘整运行，后续关注市场成交情况。</p> <p></p> <p>【钨】原料端挺价心态明显，市场报价略有上调，现高品位黑钨精矿主流报盘在10.85-10.9万/吨，场内博弈局面加剧。APT主流成交价围绕长单价进行，散货刚需交易为主，成交重心上移。钨粉场内订单新增寥寥，硬质合金需求仍处低谷，受原料端价格提振，现中颗粒碳化钨主流成交价在249元/公斤，钨粉在253元/公斤；钨铁市场保持稳定，70钨铁成交价在16.8-16.9万/吨，80钨铁成交价在17.4万/吨。</p> <p></p> <p>【钒】钒市近日小幅探涨，钢招价格多回到18-18.3万元/吨，市场期涨心态随之提升，钒合金价格坚挺再现，从原料到合金价格紧跟提涨，低价难以采买，贸易企业操作受限局面难改，对于高价采购意愿不强。成本支撑下钒合金进一步让价空间愈加受限，综合终端钢厂现状考虑，面对12月钢厂招标的来临，钒市或仍将以拉锯态势迎接新一轮对弈。</p> <p>2022大宗商品年报出炉在即！欢迎抢鲜品读！</p> <p>报告聚焦钢材、煤焦、<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a>、<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>新材料、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0303-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁合金</a>、<a 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